This is an iHeart podcast, guaranteed human.
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting, think again, more Americans listen
to podcasts than add supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. Learn how podcasting can help your business. Call 844-844-iHeart. I'm Clayton Nackard, in 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor.
“But here's the thing, Bachelor fans hated him.”
If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would. That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one-night stand would end in a courtroom. The media is here, this case has gone viral. The dating contract.
Agreed to date me, but I'm also suing you. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before. I'm Stephanie Young, listen to Love Trapped on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The people with some was up, it's Quest Love, so recently I had the incredible opportunity
to have a real conversation with actress and producer, Jamie Lee Curtis from routines to recovery, true lies, and a certain, germane, jacks of music video. Jamie's real and raw, and something I really admire about her. I am so happy that I'm the head-button charge at 67, that I have the perspective that I have at my age.
To really be able to put all of this into context. Listen to the Quest Love So, or on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mine control is real? If you can control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you?
Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? Can I gave you some suggestions to be sexually aroused? Can you get someone to join your cult?
NLP was used on me to access my subconscious mind games, a new podcast exploring NLP, aka neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to mind games on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Better Offline, I am, of course, your host Ed Zitron.
Now we're back in the studio in beautiful New York City, New York State.
“You need to check out the show notes, of course, we have these beautiful fuck-day SNR T-shirts,”
subscribe to my newsletter and so on and so forth, but today joining me at Swaggage claim, our two of barons is finest reporters, the legendary Nick Deva, who handles the gambling industry and the Wall Street reporting legend, Rebecca Ungarino. Thank you so much for joining us. Now, Nick, yes.
We have had so many people emailing about prediction markets and you cover the gambling industry as well. How are they different? How are they not the same thing? Because they very much seem similar.
Yeah, I think from a consumer point of view, there's very little difference between these products. You put money on the line, if your team wins, you get paid out. So from like a layman's point of view, I think there's very little difference. However, there is a difference.
On a gambling, in gambling, you're betting against the house, so the betting firm sets
“the odds that you're betting against, right?”
Whereas, in a prediction market, your counterparty is another trader. So trader, or prediction markets are just essentially brokers that are putting two traders together on one contract, and I can explain that in a little more detail if it's like, please. So prediction markets sell what are called event contracts.
So event contracts are futures contracts. They're also called binary options, and they're built around yes or no questions. So each contract is worth one dollar, and it has two traders. There's a trader on the yes side, and there's a trader on the no side. Right.
So will this podcast go well? We can make that a prediction market. I hope. Right. I hope it goes well.
Let's get this, I'm just going to set that up right there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So if person A thinks there's a 75% chance that it will go well, and person B thinks there's a 25% chance that it will not go well, person A pays 75 cents, and person B pays 25 cents.
Right. Hands out. Yes, the yes trader gets the 25 cents put up by the no trader, and makes and now has a dollar contract.
Now let's say on a second contract, person C thinks there's a 25% chance of yes.
Person D thinks there's a 75% chance of no. Yeah. So these two contracts where the odds are flipped average out, and there's a 50/50 chance that this podcast goes well.
Right.
Right.
So the price of the contract is the predictions, and prediction markets are just
brokers. The businesses themselves are just connecting to trade. So where's the crypto side as well? Because I remember when Polymarket started it was weird crypto thing, but is it still that?
Yeah, I would say it's still a weird crypto thing. They most of their business is still their international side where they just take, I think it's USDT, or it's some stable coin, one of the stuff that they all of the contracts are traded on that. That's Polymarket, they're an offshore run company.
Yeah, offshore. I love this. Yeah. Yeah. Meaning not regulated in the US, not a US-based company, contrast that with Calshy.
Calshy was the first registered designated contract market by the CFTC, that's the commodity
futures trading commission. They regulate all of this stuff. So Calshy was the first firm to actually do this in what we would call the legal way. Whereas Polymarket does not have to abide by the US regulations, because they are not a US firm.
And they're trying to become, they've gotten permission to operate in the US, but they're like slowly rolling that out. A lot of people in the US don't have Polymarket US accounts yet.
“If you want to trade on Polymarket in the US, you're mostly using a VPN.”
A new zone. But you need crypto to do it. Yes. Yeah. For the international site.
This feels like it'd be right with manipulation. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. I think that there, because Polymarket operates on the blockchain, it's generally all anonymous, and it's very easy to get any kind of market you want, created.
There's a lot of concern around manipulation. I think a helpful example is there was some football game or some sporting event, and there was a market for will someone streak at this event, you know, run onto the field naked. And someone did end up streaking, and the person that ended up streaking was someone who was trading on the market, you know, betting, yes, that someone would end up streaking.
And then they went and did it. And so they made, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars, paid a small fine relative to the sporting people.
“And, you know, now we have, so you get into this question, I think a helpful metaphor”
is like our prediction markets, a thermostat or a thermometer, are they like accurately pricing the potential outcome, you know, as they say, that something is going to happen, or by their very existence, do they make something more likely to happen? Right. Rebecca, how the bank is dealing with this, how's Wall Street looking at this?
Is this, yeah, it's, it's tough to really grasp whether this is gambling or a futures contract like betting on the chance of stocking up will go down. And there's such a big difference right now. Yeah. It's really interesting because the banks themselves, and this is separate from like the
market makers or like, you know, high frequency trading firms, the banks themselves are very highly regulated by like three main agencies, the OCC, the office of the controller of the currency, the federal reserve and the FDIC. So they're very highly regulated and then they have a bunch of like state agencies that regulate them too.
So far, the biggest banks have stayed pretty quiet on how they're thinking about these and they're, you know, kind of waiting for this regulatory, you know, clarity. It reminds me a little bit of, you know, Bitcoin and crypto going mainstream, you know, 10 11 years ago. We're waiting for regulators, we're waiting for regulators, and banks are, they're really
complex. They have a bunch of different businesses where they could come in and, you know, for example, on the banking side, the investment bankers, you know, have an interest in, we'll do
“we want to help them raise money, do we want to help them raise capital or take them public?”
Oh, they know. They're touching. Any of the fund raising? They, they could. My understanding, you would know better than you on calcium polymarket, who their investors
are as VCs at PE? Yeah, it's, I think it's mostly VCs right now, but they're both targeting, there was recent reporting in the last week, journal that they're both polymarket and calcium, are targeting
20 billion dollar valuations.
Now, it's not crazy. It's like, totally. Totally. Business though. Yeah, that's, that's kind of the thing is there's not, like, the, there's not a lot of
difference between trading on polymarket and trading on calcium. Like, you're trading the same kind of, um, the same contract and, in effect, like, it's the same kind of product that's being traded. So you kind of get into a similar thing that the sports betting businesses had to deal with where fan dual and draft kings are essentially, you know, identical products, selling, um,
you know, identical products and trying to differentiate themselves. And so we'll see in the coming months how how that ends up working. Rebecca, on the, on the, but I should go at, we'll be fine. Well, I mean, in on the trading side, it's a whole other, like, on the other side of the house.
Exactly. Yeah.
Like, at the bank, so like, you know, these massive trading businesses, it's,...
that we have so far, and we're, you know, working on this now.
“And again, the banks are being very tight-lipped on what they're saying about what they're”
getting involved in or not getting involved in. Um, this is something that, so the investment banks, they're like, the bankers, the trading desks, and then the research. And that's totally separate. And there's like this firewall, right?
So research analysts are definitely, like, looking at these things, just like any other input, any other source of information, of course, it's, yes, there are differences. But it's like, okay. Well, what is calcium saying about this when, you know, maybe a commodities analyst who's looking at it.
And it might not have a sentiment analysis, it's exactly exactly, and just another input to look at. Yeah. Um, so that's all well and good. You can look at that.
On the trading side, though, it's more complicated, because again, the CFTC, like Nick brought
up the commodity futures and trading commission, that, you know, regulates crypto and, you know, is now regulating some of these prediction market activities. They have to weigh in. And they have, you know, to some extent, but they're waiting for kind of a more complete look at, okay, golden sacks, you know, traders, or it enter any other, like, big-bink traders,
like, what are we able to trade? Now, that is still kind of out there, right? They're event contracts, like political elections, you know, things like that, quote, event contracts, right? And then there are other markets where on security is where it's like, that cause you're
probably market, you can, you can do, like, will and video stock end the day up or down. Right.
“That's something that is happening every day, right?”
Exactly. And that's a little more complicated, because then you are dealing with security is rather than just, like, some amorphous event contracts. Yeah, yeah. So it's, like, complicated.
But legally speaking, I'm sure someone will argue, well, this isn't a security, because I'm betting on an outcome, rather than scary itself. Totally, totally. Totally. Totally.
Also set us up for something kind of dystopian, though, if these, if banks or traders start trading on these markets, where you have some of the bank interest and weather, I don't know, what, a guy streaks. Yeah. All by the, a place gets blown up, like, this is where I think the fringes of insanity
begin. Definitely. Completely. And I just, like, I'll want you to weigh in more, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, it just opens a whole new, for banks that are so tightly regulated, it opens up
a whole new source of, like, potential liability and, like, you've done more reporting on. Yeah, yeah, we've, we've, from what we've heard there, the banks are not as interested in those kinds of markets, just because there's no, like, you know, they don't have an election every single day and, like, these dust need to make money, right?
So there needs to be, like, a sustainable, constant kind of liquidity and, like, enough events for them to actually, you know, participate in the markets. Right. And the kind of, like, securities-related markets that maybe these banks would be more interested in that they would have a better edge on, whatever, those are still mostly on polymarket.
And I really doubt that, you know, a tightly regulated, like, US-based bank is going to want to be trading, like, in stablecoin, like, on polymarket against, you know, potential incitors, all of the stuff that just doesn't sound like appealing, I would imagine. But what about asset, like, the areas of the world, or, like, private equity firms,
“a private credit firms, aren't they different and might they be done?”
Like, might they get them, might they get themselves involved? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. When I see the data sent to staff, when I hear on this private credit, the private credit
stuff, like, like, trickle error in First Brands and Puzzle Gen, and, uh, I forget what ever
was it. There was the, there was the one, there's now one in Europe, where's the last? And the last? Yeah, yeah, yeah. The random ones were just like, yeah, you know, when we said, we promised you this
collateral, we also promised it to 17 other people. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah. I worry that they are going to start, like, are they allowed to?
It's a great question, and my reporting, and it's a great story, it's a great question. I'm not entirely sure, like, where, if and how they're coming into these things, in other words, I wouldn't be surprised. I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the big private credit players, which is, again, like, some of these things are, they are just very lightly regulated banks,
like, to be clear, right? Like, they are lending money, like, and private credit, yes, there's a huge, huge, but so cool. So good. I love that.
Um, it's a huge debate right now, like, is private credit means a lot of different things, whatever. But at the end of the day, it is lending outside of the banking system. Yeah. Okay.
Like, let that is safe to say. Um, so I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's, you know, like, a calcium, like, a polymarket, um, if there is, you know, kind of lending from these firms, I don't know, but they are becoming the private credit, you know, players are becoming so much more active in the private sector, and then just all these private, um, privately
held companies where there's a whole matrix of, like, areas where they could become involved. I don't know that, and I would be curious, um, but it's probably an input that they're looking at, too. Like, just a research, you know, input, right?
Like, you know, we, like, we look at, oh, what is it saying about that?
We take it with the grain of salt, but like, you know, it's still something we're going
to look at. But it's an interesting question. They are the predictions. Yeah. Sorry.
They are quite accurate, um, the, you know, there's, you know, we can, there can be arguments made about whether or not they are, like, good for society, whether it's, like, an okay thing
“that we can bet on, you know, every single kind of, um, I think that the Kalshi CEO, um,”
Trekman Soura, his quote is that, you know, we want to make a monetizable asset out of every difference in opinion. Jesus Christ. But she's like, that's, that's like, yeah, the paraphrase will manicure of Chapo when he was seeing a video of a new sport with two guys running into each other.
Yeah. Uh, you see, this is the kind of thing you do in like, uh, Robo called. Yeah. Yeah. That's what it's giving.
Yeah. It's like, yeah, we can, we can look very like near future dystopian. It is dystopian. Well, I don't want to spend a lot of time lives in Vegas. I just want to say this is an insult to my beautiful gambling.
Yeah. Beautiful. Yeah. Yes. Yeah.
Yes. Yes. Yes.
I want to say this is an insult to my beautiful gambling.
Yeah. Yeah. Yes. I want to say this is an insult to my beautiful gambling. Yeah.
Yeah.
“I want to say this is an insult to my beautiful gambling.”
Yeah. Yeah. That's the new state motto, by the way, I really like that. What? Our crops are not this crappy.
Exactly. I love that. I love that. I'm going to run it. I'm going to put it on a t-shirt.
I love that. No. It's. It is really scary though. So what?
I feel like someone's going to die from this. Like, it's going to be this person dies by December 31st. And they're going to get hunted, like, running men. Yes. Yeah.
That's, um, okay. So we're almost there. Yeah.
So, and recently actually, there was a bit of controversy over like, um,
what we would call death markets on Calshy. Um, so when the US attacked Iran, there were lots of markets on both polymarket and Calshy related to military action in Iran, whether it would happen or not. What by when it would happen usually these are formatted and like, um, you know, military strikes in Iran by ex-date.
Yeah. Yeah. So one of the contracts that both Calshy and polymarket had was, um, Kamini out by ex-date. Right.
So this is the supreme leader of Iran. Um, will he be out as supreme leader by this date? So the, like, layman's interpretation of that would mean, um, if he dies, he's out. Right.
You know, that's probably how you would. Right. So is he in office anymore? Come back home. He's, he's dead.
He's probably out, right? Um, so when, um, that Saturday, um, Trump announced that he had been killed on polymarket, polymarket resolved their contract. Yes.
He is out. Right. But Calshy did not do this. They, um, froze. Well, they, like, pause the market for, like, eight hours to, like,
figure out how to handle this.
“And what is the consequence opposing the market, just home clear?”
Oh, it's just that there's no more trading happening. Right. Does the price move at all? So it's just frozen. It's just frozen.
Um, and what they did is they reset, um, when they made their decision, they refunded everyone their stakes, um, the value of their contracts at last traded price before death. So if there was, like, a 74% chance that he would be out, um, at 1259 and he died at one, then they would pay,
the yes contract would pay out 74 cents, right? Right. Right. So they did that in order to, um, isolate the death component, right? Because Calshy in what they have told me,
they don't want to allow people to profit on death. That's just not something they're interested in. Right. However, there was very large controversy, um, around this, because all of the Calshy traders who hop on the Calshy
and were like, oh, cool. Yeah. He's probably going to be out. I'll bet on this. Um, they, they were suddenly, um, they did not get the money
that they expected to. Right. Um, and Calshy had, like, in its rules, in its rule book, that was, like, laid out. There was, like, some fine print.
Um, but yeah, we get into this, like, weird question of, like, Why didn't they pay? Because he was out. Like, what was the debt? They don't want people.
The, uh, death was a carve out. There was a death carve out. So, um, out by any other means, but death. Now, uh, the community was, like, in his mid 80s. So it's kind of hard to imagine that he was going to resign
or, like, you know, they don't hold snap elections. Yeah. So I don't really know. So it was just resignation. I guess that, you know, or, like, um, uh, kidnapping.
Like, we saw in Venezuela. Um, maybe. I don't know. That was its own own. Yeah, that was its own thing.
You know, um, was, was, what happened in Venezuela does that count as, like, a war or just, like, an encourage. This is, like, so we get into all these really weird questions when the, the sort of quote unquote oracle of these prediction markets is only resolving based on various
specific outcomes. And so at a certain point, the entire point of these prediction markets is that they provide ways to hedge outcomes that you can't find in other markets.
Yes.
There's no way to, like, hedge against that happening on the stock market in, like, a clean way, right? Yeah. But if, like, like, okay, so let's say that I'm a business owner. Um, and I want to hedge against the possibility that Trump
does not finish this term. Right. Right. Okay. From my point of view as a business owner, um,
if he dies or resigns or is impeached, none of all of those three things fulfill the same thing for me. And I need to hedge against all of those outcomes. But if we don't allow these markets to resolve on death and, you know, we can argue whether or not we could.
We should, they, by definition, become less valuable hedging tools. Right. And so you kind of get into this point spot where you're, like, what are these actually for?
Like, who is the person that's hedging against
“community resigning, like, yeah, you know what I mean?”
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting. Think again. More Americans listen to podcast than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster,
I Heart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only I Heart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business. Think I Heart.
Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Let us show you it. I Heart Advertising.com. That's I Heart Advertising.com. I'm Clayton Nackard.
And in 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor. Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan.
He became the first bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected.
The internet turned on him. If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would. But what happened to Clayton after the show? Made even bigger headlines. It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom
with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal. The media is here. This case has gone viral. The dating contract. Agreed to date me, but I'm also suing you. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before.
I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped. This season, an epic battle of he said she said, and the search for accountability in a sea of lies. I'm done nothing to get pregnant by the f**k bachelor. Listen to Love Trapped on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. The people was up with someone. It's Quest Love. So recently I had the incredible opportunity to have a real conversation with actors and producer Jamie Lee Curtis ahead of the release of our new thriller series, Scar Petta.
I can honestly say I've never done an interview like that before.
At one point I set my laptop down. And we just started chatting as old friends. Recent Oscar recipient. So we have some commonality there. I predict that by the way.
And you said these words to me, "Dust off your mantle." Yes. And I looked at you and I said, "What?" And you said, "Dust off your mantle." And then I left and that was it.
And then when all of that happened,
“I remember the next morning I think I wanted to write you and go,”
"How did you know?" Listen to the Quest Love Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you can control the behavior of anybody around you,
what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave you some suggestions to be sexually aroused.
Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious NLP, aka Neural English Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology.
Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.
It's about engineering consciousness. Mind games is the story of NLP. It's crazy cast of disciples and the fake doctor who invented it at a new age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted.
The biggest mind game of all NLP might actually work. This is real. Listen to mind games on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It feels like, I don't know,
I have a weird view of this,
“and I think prediction markets are scary in vial,”
and they enable something, but I also think they're a condition created by the stock market. Galaxy brain take, but I think that the stock market is stopped being logical in any way, or performing a regular people do.
Despite, I would say what it's like,
three or four years ago, and Robin Hood went really nuts on options.
Yeah.
“I think the regular people do not have access”
to a logical or rational way of investing. Like you can't just invest in a company for being good. You can't invest in a clean outcome, because you're going to don't up against hedge funds and whoever would fuss trading in such that you couldn't possibly keep up.
They have information you don't have. Yeah. There's no way you could possibly keep up. I'm not saying prediction markets are good. I think they're terrifying.
They are robot cop, shit. Yeah. But it feels like something that could only occur in a world where there is not enough other ways to accumulate wealth. Hmm.
I could not agree more, and I think that one thing like to this point, it was a few weeks ago, and I might have even said it to you, but there was an ad,
and I don't want to say for a certain it was either calcium or polymarket, but it came up on Tiktok or Instagram, and it was an ad, or a user-generated content type thing, where a woman was holding a coffee,
and did we talk about this? Yeah. And the tagline, again, it was for one of them, I don't want to misspeak,
but it said,
"My bet will pay for my coffee."
Like my, and I was like, "Oh my God, that is so bleak." Because it really speaks to this broad, like, and again, financialization of everything.
No. That's a big conversation right now.
“It's talking about a world in which it is hard to accumulate wealth.”
I mean, just to state the most obviously, and just broad inequality, my bet will help me pay for my coffee. Like again, and I get it,
like I get that on, I get why that would be an advertisement, and like I understand, but that is so, it was like a young woman,
a young person, and it's like, "Oh my God, that is what, that is a symptom.
You know, sort of like the world we're living in. And I'm not saying that's, good or bad, I mean,
it's bleak. It's like very bleak. It's the same thing with sports gambling. Yeah. In sports gambling,
seems for now, like a lot more exploitative, because they have the account managers who come in, and they're like, "Hey,
you've lost three grand. Why would you give you two grand? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. And all of these,
these ways that you could leverage that. It is exploring the fact, because if you think about other stock market, it is these days. What the fuck you meant to do?
If you actually,
“if you invest in a company based on its fundamentals,”
you're going to lose money properly. Yeah. Like it's like, Oracle is 12% up right now. I think we're just going out in a week,
so who knows where it will be. Even though they had like negative
24 billion dollars cash flow,
they're obviously misleading people when it comes to, how like their capex, because they're going to spend only 50 billion this year, and they've already spent over 40 million dollars. Yeah.
But if you, because the market and their hedge funds have decided, there's something else they'd like to do, you could not join that. So what are your other options?
You've got, I don't know, betting on the slapfights. Yeah. Yeah.
You've got sports gambling, and you've got this big, impenetrable thing of the stock market. But then you've got these seemingly honest, easy bets of,
oh, I can just bet on an outcome. That's fair. Yeah. Unless the outcome is full of asterisks. Yes, correct.
Yeah. Yeah. I think there was some, there was some research recently. I don't know how,
I should, I saw this on Twitter disclaimer, right. That like only 32 and a half percent of prediction market customers are profitable.
Right. So two thirds of players are losers. I mean, that's gambling. That's gambling.
Yeah. So, yeah. I think, yeah, when we get into this, I think Gen Z,
especially, there's a certain amount of financial nihilism, just a general like dread, vis-a-vis the future,
and how am I ever going to have a house, and et cetera, et cetera, and oh, here's polymarket. They let me bet on,
you know, whether Trump will say China in his speech. And how many times he'll say it? Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. This could be a fun thing that they make money on to it. They can't make money on to it. Yeah.
They could make money. You could pay for your coffee with it. Yes. And yes. I will admit,
my favorite couchy story is the one that I'm sure both of you have read, where it's, they tried to hire a 15 year old streamer. And I quote,
"Your brother, legal team confirmed that we can't work with miners RN, kind of sad DBH." Fuck off.
The RN and the TBH are really the chariots. It's really like the chariots. It really just brings it all together. It really brings it together. But also,
you need to watch running, because all of this just reminds me of that mood. Just like the, I get your sloping a bowl on, where the Trump will say a different,
it's cool, nuclear, the word, like how many times will he do that? And he's done that many times,
but we're not joking, which is yet another dystopian thing. Yes. It just, it feels like the actual solution here
would be more regulation of banks and also getting rid of all of this. I think sports gambling, I know you probably can't come out on this directly.
I think sports gambling is like
one of the most noxious things, because living in Vegas, gambling is everywhere, but it's also very, very regulated.
If you listen to it, if you look anything close to 21, they will come and charge you. Yeah. And they will chase you a ret,
like they will. I'm coming up on 40, and they still ID me sometimes. I'm beautiful enough. But um,
yeah, you look, you don't look a deal. You look youth 20 and 360. But nevertheless, it's,
you, it's because they know that gambling is scary and then it's addictive. And that a win can make you think every other win will happen.
Except now it's just, you can do it anyway. And you can just do it everything. Yeah. You've got every device you can do.
Yeah. There are Instagram accounts. Yes. There's this one with a guy who just dresses up like an old man,
and has a fearful of bush, a fridge full of bush light. And it's just him being like, and he's on a gambling site. Yeah.
That is extremely, extremely bleak. And I think it's, yeah. And I think that like it is prompting,
like in the more traditional, like so in banking and kind of like,
“I think it is prompting these bigger questions”
and kind of existential questions about like, yeah, what is the difference? You know, in what we're doing and kind of like,
what is like, what are we doing here? I mean, you know, again,
it's like, it is, going back to the regulation. That is playing out right now, and that is why it's such an interesting conversation,
where you do have the trumpet administration rolling back, so many aspects of banking regulation, separate from production, you know, forget production,
what kind of things. Different. So one example is, you know, for years banks have tried to get
regulators to go a little bit, make the stress testing process, you know, again, super important.
What is this famous? Where regulators every year will kind of simulate different, disaster scenarios, you know,
again, like totally hypothetical, employment shoots up stock market crashes, you know, these hypothetical scenarios,
and they test the banks. Currently, like with the amount of capital, that A, Wells Fargo,
or JP Morgan has, can you weather this? Can you withstand? They always do very,
they always do very well.
With caveats, obviously. But you know, they come and say, okay,
you know, that could be a weakness. That could be a weakness. Right. Private credit has also
introduced an interesting, you know, kind of wrinkle here, because it is, by definition,
there is, you know, kind of this hidden leverage, and regulators have talked about that. But they're not banks.
So they don't get it. But they're not banks. Correct. And so that's a whole other fascinating, you know,
kind of ecosystem where it's like, okay, you are a bank. I'm going to stress test you. You are lending you bank,
our ed bank, okay, incorporated. You are going to lend to private credit lender.
Okay. But when you lend to there, there's not as much tracking, what that, what your barrower is lending to,
and you can see it is hard to track where that money is going. And I read the other day, I think it was mid middle of last year. The Boston Fed,
“I think it was said that 40% of large banks loans”
went to private credit and private equity. It's a massive, it's a massive, it's a massive chunk, and of loan growth overall.
And I think that like when you go to, so when you take prediction markets, and you kind of take like the current regulatory backdrop, it's like an adds an interesting wrinkle, because it's like,
okay, by and large, a lot of financial regulators are like, yes, we want to be like,
the bottom line is they are rolling back,
like, traditional guard rails, you know, like around the banks, but now prediction markets,
okay, and that is currently being like, you know, kind of, that is being sorted out right now.
So we'll see, and like the CFTC, I want to say is like, the only regulator, again,
it's like the most relevant one here, that's like, come out with like some guidance, but it remains to be seen. So, you know,
we'll see kind of how the administration handles that. I just, I feel like right now, this personal opinion, not help by the,
I guess, I think that there is a massive regulatory problem with, lying, because right now, my favorite example is,
uh, Open AI. So Open AI, signed a deal with AMD, except they didn't.
“It was just an agreement with any formal contract,”
AMD is not increased guidance, Oracle, $300 billion deal with Open AI, I can't afford to serve it.
Don't have the, has the raised debt. Data centers aren't built. Um, SK Heinrichs and Open AI,
Samsung and Open AI, signed a big deal to take 40% of RAM, except they didn't. It was letter of intent. All of these stocks have popped off of these deals.
Yeah. Nothing happened. It's very obvious.
There was never anything official.
There should be regulate, because, people in the audience might hear this and say, that's not stock media, but what is?
Yeah. If that isn't, and people could say, oh, it's marketing. Hmm.
Oh, we used Weasel words, but it's like, it feels like things like this will lead to outcomes that lose a lot of money. There's a lot of people,
A lot of money.
And unless we do something soon, it's only going to get worse, because every time someone like this is not stopped, someone else doesn't.
They just like, fuck it. Why would we bother?
“That will lead into the prediction mocks as well,”
because you could just start saying whatever. Yeah. But that's actually, that is the biggest thing with prediction. You could just say stuff now.
There's like the extent to which the stock market is reliant on like increasingly complicated bits of semantics. Yeah.
It's like we've just never,
we're at like a semantic indexes. Yeah. The abstract and abstract, like literally. Letter of intent.
Yeah. What is a human consideration to? They're all deals. They're deals, they're agreements, but we've not changed guidance.
We've not put anybody. No one's actually doing anything. But, you know, each, it's just,
let's just, I forget a memorandum of understanding. memorandum. Oh, yeah. MOU's are the best.
I love a good MOU. They mean nothing, but they mean absolutely everyone. Love an MOU.
“Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?”
Think again. More Americans listen to podcast than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, I Heart's twice as large as the next two combined.
So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus only I Heart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business.
Think I Heart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Call 844-844-I Heart to get started. That's 844-844-I Heart. I'm Clayton Nackard.
And in 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor. Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan.
He became the first bachelor
to ever have his final rose rejected. The internet turned on him. If I could press a button and rewind it all I would. But what happened to Clayton after the show made even bigger headlines?
It began as a one-night stand, and ended in a courtroom, with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal. The media is here.
This case has gone viral. The dating contract. Agreed to date me, but I'm also suing you. It's such work.
“This is unlike anything I've ever seen before.”
I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped. This season, an epic battle of he said she said, and the search for accountability
in a sea of lies. "I don't know the ink to get pregnant by the **** bachelor." Listen to Love Trapped on the iHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The people was up with something. It's Quest Love. So recently, I had the incredible opportunity to have a real conversation with actors
and producer Jamie Lee Curtis, ahead of the release of our new thriller series,
"I've never done an interview like that before."
At one point, I set my laptop down. And we just started chatting as old friends, recent Oscar recipient. So we have some commonality there.
I predict that, by the way. And you said these words to me, "Dust off your mantle." Yes. And I looked at you and I said,
"What?" And you said, "Dust off your mantle." And then I left and that was it. And then when all of that happened,
I remember the next morning. I think I wanted to write you and go, "How did you know?" Listen to the Quest Love Show on the iHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you can control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone
to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave you some suggestions to be sexually arose.
Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, A.K.A. Neural English Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology.
Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain. It's about engineering consciousness. Mindgames is the story of NLP. It's crazy cast of disciples, and the fake doctor who invented it
at a new age commune, and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder, and got acquitted. The biggest mindgame of all,
NLP, might actually work. Listen to mindgames on the iHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. It's frustrating, because I am not a particularly sophisticated trader.
I may have only recently started putting money
in the S&P 500, after a period of not, but it's,
and that's in an index by the way.
It's, very responsible. Very responsible. But the point loves the 80/20. I fully have.
I love diversification. Here's the thing. My worry is, it's very obvious how you manipulate these markets, and without regulations to stop people.
It's only going to get more ridiculous. You're just going to get CEOs that say things, to create a market, possibly creating them themselves, and if they're a private company,
that's not illegal, I believe. Yeah.
So when we talk about like mentioned markets,
“are a good example of where I think a lot of the,”
I'm one of the, the manipulation concerns are. So a mentioned market is like, okay, during this podcast,
we'll add, say, fuck with. We're like, we're betting on that.
Yeah, that's what we're talking about. That's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
Right, people, these are mentioned markets. So we literally just betting on the words that will come out of someone's mouth. Right. So a very high profile example of this is Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Yeah, you know, at the end of an earnings call, there was a polymarket mentioned market for what will Brian Armstrong say on the earnings call.
And at the end, you know, literally like right before the like moderator was like, thanks for joining everyone. Right before he's like, oh, someone just handed me the polymarket for what I'm going to say. So I'll just get through all these, you know, Bitcoin, web three, just like went down the list and like paid off the market. So he has come out and said that he was not trading on that market or involved in any way. But like we are opening ourselves up to like new ways that we can like manipulate markets.
Yeah, insider trade and like when we create a market for everything and everything can become a bet. More people than ever can become insider traders because there's just so much more things to insider trade on.
“Well, he's a, is a question, how do you, how much is necessary to create a market like what how much money does it require?”
This is a good question. So polybarket PR has told me that the primary criteria for if a market can be created because they, they field suggestions from their users. Yeah, the primary criteria is if there's evidence of demand for the yes side and the no side. Right. That's it.
What is evidence in this case? Okay, um, you know, if there's activity on Twitter about it, if people on the discord are like, please, I want to bet on this. It seems pretty ad hoc. I don't have much more detail than that because they get me more detail. I imagine they don't need to. Yeah, um, you know, money.
It's, I mean, it's just like evidence of trading demand right and then they'll open it and then people can start right on it. But you don't have to, they don't have to. You don't have to be like, all right, you all have $500 ready to go on this. Like there's nothing like there's just as long as they can see that people will want to trade on it. They will make it. Makes sense.
And that kind of goes to the question of just like thinly like with banks, like thin thinly regulated versus not or thinly traded excuse me versus not right. It goes to the question of like when banks look at something they're like, we can't make a market out of like, you know, trading on this one. This one thing is like $200,000 in volume. There's just no way that like essentially which bank is ever going to like, yeah, you just open yourself up to so much. So it goes back to that.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, oh, so I guess banks, I didn't even think of that. But yeah, banks will want to touch it because there's not a lot of money in it.
“I think it's when I think of like a thinly traded.”
Like a dark. Yeah, exactly. It just goes actually. And like the volatility and like if banks can find a way to make money on something legally, they will. Yeah. They will.
And so it's I, you know, you could see a world in which, and I'm not saying like, there is no regulatory framework that would allow this. No, I'm not saying that because in the future. In the future, you could see it like who knows what that could look like. And so the banks are just like, okay, we're going to like wait for the regulators to say something. But like it comes to a question of also like internal enforcement, like banks all have like very.
Very clear, you know, kind of rules around insider trading, someone has non public information. Um, if you trade on that, you will be fired. Like, you know, that's very like well worn, you know, kind of like, but now with prediction markets. How do you enforce that? It is hard.
And so banks are like actively. And again, I'm just like talking up banks specifically. You could also talk about like tech companies, healthcare companies, whatever. But banks where like we have talked about this a lot, like being this nexus of the markets.
They do have a lot of information that, you know, okay, that's different from...
Like, how does a compliance team enforce that?
“That is an open like question right now that banks are like actively figuring out.”
And it's a really interesting question of compliance and enforcement, you know, internally. It's just, it feels like the walls are breaking down around everything. But before we do the prep call for this, we're talking about analysts, for example. And I named someone. I'm not going to name people on this, just for professional reasons, but people know who I mean.
We're very professional. We're all very professional. We're very professional. Yeah. I never say fuck.
Um, but there are these, I named someone and you were like, that's not an analyst. Yeah. And it's becoming obvious that because they're on CNBC, they're on Bloomberg. It's like, you've got these people pretending to be analysts. You've got these entities like private credit pretending to be banks.
You've got prediction markets going to be stocked. Yeah. It just feels like the walls are being torn down. And I know that this is going to, people aren't going to like this. I don't think most people should have access to the stock market or gambling.
I think that they are dangerous.
“And I think, or at least, they should be regulated in such a way that it's less dangerous.”
Not just open season. Yeah.
And then every third guy on Twitter is like, I'm an analyst.
May you are a poster. Yeah. Well, that's an interesting question. And I mean, like, I couldn't help but think in that moment of journalism, right? And obviously, okay, they're journalists and writers.
And then there are like people who do not have the same or not held to the same standards. And that's a whole other conversation. But like with analysts, yeah, totally. I mean, like it's, there are very clear kind of like you are regulated by Fynra, which is the self-regulated, you know, they're a regulator.
And they regulate or they regulate the brokerage industry. And like any quote, sell side analysts. So like, you know, an analyst who is, again, held to these standards, like industry standards of disclosures and conflict of interest and things like that. Like that is, quote, an analyst.
Yeah, you can be in it. Of course, there are like other ways, but like that you can be an analyst. And that is legitimate in like another sector or like another like on the biceye. Okay, fine, that's all legitimate. But there are certain standards that you're held to.
If you're like, for example, you know, like a Fynra analyst. And like that's not an analyst. Exactly. An analyst. A capital A analyst.
And that's not always clear to like a viewer.
So this is actually a question. What is a self-sled analyst? Because they, I have listeners who have lost this before. And I realized I haven't really defined it myself very well. And you would know for sure.
You're at a brokerage. Something like brokerage inside of a bank or you're just like a standalone kind of brokerage. A Morgan Stanley great great example. They have their investment bank. And that's like, okay, they have their bankers over here and on the other side.
And it's not this simple, but like on the other side, you have this all side. And that is these analysts who are writing research reports. They are held to Fynra Rule 2241. I think section six or two to four one. Go Google it.
That covers everything that like a sell side analyst must be held to. They are on the sell side versus the buy side. So they are selling, you know, this like research and, you know, versus like they're not managing a fund, right? Like they are giving information of their issuing a buy hold sell.
They are giving price targets. They are working at financial models. They are in a different spot than, again, someone on the buy side. That is like what does reading sell side selling selling. selling selling research selling selling knowledge and wisdom.
I don't know how the SEC defines that. I'll be very clear. And it's kind of like, I mean, it's kind of outdated. That's right. You know, it's almost like an antiquated thing sell side versus by height.
Just just kind of how like a wire house. Like that's a very antiquated way of saying like a big wealth manager. Pick a thing that's getting me at the moment and I'm not naming anyone specific for professional reasons.
“But why is it that these analysts always set these massive targets and don't seem to be affected by reality?”
Because there is a non-specific prominent data center analyst who quite literally went out on television yesterday and said that Oracle was a good buy. And it was that it's actually better when you look at the report. This is actually incorrect. It's not even an opinion thing.
The sell side analysts always seem very positive.
Even when reality isn't reflecting that shouldn't they know better? Is there a reason they would be more positive in general? Not talking about this person. Yeah, I mean, it's like, this is like one of my favorite issues. It's just it's really fascinating because it kind of speaks to like this proliferation of like anyone can put out research.
And like anyone can kind of like a lower case A analyst versus capital A analyst. I think that the thing to always go back to is you know 2001, I think 2002 new regulations were put in you know spearheaded by Elliot Spitzer who is the New York AG at the time after you know Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley put you know certain analysts had put out research that were like was super bullish and was total mismatch to how they were privately describing Amazon you know Henry Blodgett famously you know put out a report.
Banned from the industry that's all well, you know chronicles.
Yeah, only regulations were put in place around from security regulators arou...
You are an analyst.
“Okay, you have to include all sorts of new disclosures, which is great.”
I mean, you know, and again, it's a very interesting thing.
A member of my household, I think the language is something like me or a member of my household owns a security in XYZ or something like that. And also, you know, kind of these charts, you'll see at the bottom of a report where it shows the stock price like a Apple for example. The stock price relative to like where their price target is to hold them accountable for like, you know, kind of what that's looking like and stop. But that would require someone to hold them accountable. Yes, exactly.
Analysts are like, by and large, I mean, there's plenty of data on this, but like they are a very like bullish group. I mean, the data, if you just look at byhold sell, like they continue to be that and and the whole industry has really evolved where, you know, this is the whole other conversation. We talked about this a little bit, but like people should be aware that like corporate access is, you know, just a much bigger part of the analyst job and all that. So for access, what do you mean? Yeah, like, you're an analyst at a, again, a Morgan Stanley or a UBS and just to call out to random ones.
You, your clients like a hedge fund investor, you know, like a big institutional investor access to the management team of the company that I cover as an analyst. So I'm covering, I'm covering the, you know, I'm a health care analyst and I'm covering Johnson and Johnson and like I can connect, you know, like the investor who's reading my research. So who's reading my research with the CFO of Johnson and Johnson? I'm just calling out random comments. Yeah, but it's that connection. It's that like link and it's, it will access, it's just axioms.
Cool. That feels like a bad thing, like that doesn't feel like it benefits. It is definitely, you know, it's one of these things that that analyst have to manage and like these, one of these, and I don't want to call it a conflict because it's not inherently a conflict, but it is another kind of piece of the job that, frankly,
and there are many fantastic analysts out there who do manage that well and put out, you know, have great relationships, but put out critical research.
You know, like, substantive research and you just have to manage that.
“And there are many fantastic analysts who do, but I even said it's not unlike sometimes being a beat reporter where you have to maintain just like good working relationships with the people you cover, even if you're going to say,”
and accurate, but like, critical, fair thing, and then you just have to like move on. Again, very different from the role of an analyst, you know, but it is, there are similarities. I don't know if it's different. There are similarities. I just want to make sure, please. Please, please. So a sauceide analyst writes reports about companies in a certain sector and puts those reports out publicly and disseminates them to other banks, et cetera.
And then hedge funds can go to the analyst and say, "I want your specific research that you've done on these companies and also can you introduce me to their management team." That's part of the offering, exactly. Exactly. Exactly. And therefore, to be able to connect clients to management and make money for your firm, you have to, maybe you have to be a little more positive in your report on that firm than you normally would in order to be able to connect your clients with them.
That's it. That would be the cynical take. Absolutely. But the very fair criticism, I would say. Absolutely.
I don't think cynical. The cynical take. But it is, it's just like a feature that, and again, they're like excellent, excellent, excellent, excellent analysts who just manage that. That's why we're being on specific. And you just manage that.
And it's just like being again, yes, okay, they're different. But it is not unlike you write a tough story on a company, you are fair, and then you got to move on and then you got to move on. But the thing is, I don't know.
“I think access journalism is bullshit, and I think we're in the beginning of history as I wrote last week.”
It is, it's no longer useful to do access. Access journalism doesn't work, it doesn't get you anything. If a PR firm or a PR person at a company doesn't answer your question because they're mad at you, that's their fucking problem. This is not the opinion of my guests. This is just me.
I just, when you told me this for the first time in the pre-core, I was kind of, I sat and thought about it a lot because it's like,
"Don't have to agree with me here." It feels antithetical to good analysis to be like, "Well, I can't be too mean." Especially when your job is, "Hey, should I invest in this?" And it's like, "Well, you may be sure," because I got to get you the company. I got to make sure the company, fuck that.
I don't know. This is the thing though, I guess, back to my mind, feeling about the stock market. It's like, that feels rigged. It feels like you've got analysts who go on CNBC Bloomberg and I'm sure people will say,
"Oh, Bloomberg, real traders use the terminal, whatever.
But it's like, the growth of retail investors is what makes this dangerous to me.
The fact that it's the easiest time ever to invest in stocks. If I felt like buying a stock right now, I could do so in a few taps. Yeah. If that's the case, or that should be the disclosure, here's a good centrist path.
“I think that they should have to write down every introduction they've made.”
Oh, they should say every time every time they've introduced a hedge fund and they don't even need to name them, there's these same made introduction on this day. That way we could see, because what better be a lot of them? Yeah. Also, I'm getting all new ideas for a foyer.
Not that they would be, not that I am meant to actually fall into that at all, because it's all private sector. But I'm just getting ideas. I'm just getting ideas again, totally different. But this is the thing. Yeah, yeah.
It's what good journalism is, because it's like these messy little lines between information, not disclosed. Exactly.
It wouldn't be as big a deal if they disclose this stuff.
But also, the term analyst is used very vaguely these days. Totally. It's confusing to be wrong. I see treaty research, for example. Yeah.
It's confusing to see that. People who are, for example, again, get to the heart of people who are like held to an industry, you know, regulated industry standard that like is very like closely held closely watched versus not. Yeah. That's a perfect example.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Perfect example.
“All right, I think we're going to wrap it there.”
I've had a great time. We find you too. I'm on X at Nick Devere underscore, or you can check out my newly launched website. Nick Devere dot. You've got code it.
Sorry, don't cancel me, Ed. I can't believe you outed me at the end. So you've got literally you. Fuck. Nevermind.
Or barrens.com. Yes. You can find me on barrens.com. All right, everyone, you can find me, of course, where's your ed.atbetrafline.com.
This podcast you already. Listing, too. Love you all, look later. And the week. Thank you all.
Thank you. Thank you for listening to Battle of Line. The editor and composer of the Battle of Line theme song is Mattersouthsky. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at mattersouthsky.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com.
You can email me at E-Z at Battle of Line.com. Or visit Battle of Line.com to find more podcast links. And of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.Wiz your ed.at to visit the discord. And go to all/betrafline to check out all Reddit.
Thank you so much for listening. Better offline is a production of cool zone media. For more from cool zone media, visit our website. Cool zonemedia.com. Or check us out on the I-Hard Radio app.
Apple Podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Clayton Neckard. In 2020, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor. But here's the thing.
Bachelors fans hated him. If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would. That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one-night stand would end in a courtroom. The media is here.
This case has gone viral. The dating conjures me up. The media is here. This case has gone viral. The dating contract. Agreed to date me.
But I'm also suing you. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before. I'm Stephanie Young. Listen to the love trapped on the I-Hard Radio app. Apple Podcasts.
Or wherever you get your podcasts. The people with soap was up. It's quest love.
So recently, I had the incredible opportunity to have a real conversation with
actress and producer, Jamie Lee Curtis from routines to recovery, true lies, and a certain Jermaine Jackson music video. Jamie's real and raw. And something I'm really mind about her. I am so happy that I'm the head (beep)
in charge at 67 that I have the perspective that I have at my age. To really be able to put all of this into context. Listen to the quest love soap on the I-Hard Radio app. Apple Podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts.
What if mine control is real? If you can control behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?
“Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car?”
When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? Now, P. was used on me to access my subconscious mind games.
A new podcast exploring NLP. AKA neurolinguistic programming.
Is it a self-help miracle?
A shady hypnosis scam. Or both.
“Listen to mind games on the I-Hard Radio app.”
Apple podcasts.
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome tech this.
“I heard in TikTok have come together to create something new.”
I love it.
We're the world of TikTok meets your playlist.
Three words that will change your life. I heard TikTok radio.
The biggest hits across I-Hard Radio.
What's trending for you on TikTok?
“Tell me you sound that's better than this.”
TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for I-Hard TikTok Radio. Make it a preset and stay connected all day. This isn't I-Hard Podcast. Guaranteed Human.
