The other shoe

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“In Denver, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Monday, May 11th. Good to have you”

with us. I hate to start the week off on a down note after that surprisingly buoyant jobs report. We had just before the weekend. It showed strong job creation and low unemployment in April, but the other economic shoe and there's that metaphor drops tomorrow with the latest inflation numbers for April, the consumer price index. And forecasters are expecting it to show a big increase in prices, lead no surprise by

gas and energy. Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman has the outlook. I heard the word hot from a bunch of economists about tomorrow's inflation data and not in a good way. Tomorrow's CPI report. It's going to be a hot one. Don't expect in the

second straight. Extremely hot. Increase. It's simply unmitigated disaster to have

rising energy and related energy commodities. That's a run syndrome at CFRA research, job resoulous at consulting firm RSM and J. Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Economists expect headline inflation in April to come in at 3.8% year over year. In February before the Iran war started, it was 2.4%. J. Hatfield says we've seen this before when inflation spiked during the 1970s

OPEC oil embargo. Difference now is that the Iran war is also affecting other

“key economic inputs. It's not just an energy Christ shock, but the closure of the”

street is impacting a number of commodities exported of the Middle East, so like aluminum, steel, and fertilizer. So far, we haven't seen core inflation rising sharply. That excludes food and energy. But it's what Jobur Swellas said RSM

expects to see in coming months. Second order effects whereby transportation costs

Job, and then it begins to show up in food prices. And then later on in the year due to the disruption of refined products and fertilizers, we're expecting another round of price increases. U.S. Consumers meanwhile are increasingly convinced higher inflation is back. Joanne Xu at the University of Michigan Consumer

“Surveys says folks are racing for quite a bit of short-term pain. For the next”

12 months, consumers are absolutely expecting those gas price increases to pass through to consumer-facing prices overall. If headline inflation comes in as high as expected for April, it will more than outpace average wage gains over the past year, says RSM's Jobur Swellas. What that means is people's actual wages once you adjust for inflation will likely either be flat or into decline. And he says

even if the Iran war ends tomorrow and supply chains return to normal, price increases already in the pipeline will still keep inflation running high through at least the end of the year. I'm Mitchell Hartman from Marketplace. On that last point, an end to the war was looking even more distant today after President Trump rejected a counteroffer from Iran. Wall Street though,

continued to look the other way. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. If you're a fan of a dense bean salad or homemade hummus, then you probably have chickpeas in your pantry. And yes, they are protein rich and delicious, but it turns out they and a bunch of other food staples might not be as nutritious as they were even a decade ago. And the reason is carbon dioxide. Sarah Kaplan wrote about it

at the Washington Post in a story called "The Invisible Force Making Food Less Nutritious." Sarah, welcome to the program. Thanks for having me. So climate change has a lot of consequences for food, but I was surprised to learn that the carbon dioxide itself that's causing global warming is a problem. Can you talk about why? Yeah, so scientists think that it has to do with the way that plants grow. They take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and turn

it into carbohydrates. And when there's more carbon in the atmosphere, that's more quote-unquote

a comparable increase in the other kinds of minerals. Things like zinc and iron, phosphorus, calcium,

“these really important minerals in the soil that are not so important to the plants, but are”

really important to the people who consume those plants. And that means that any given bite of a

plant is going to have more sugar in it and less of these essential nutrients. Wow, so I talked

about chickpeas. That's a big one. What are some of the other crops that are losing their nutritious value? Yeah, so some researchers in the Netherlands did what's called a metanalysis last year, and they found that dozens of nutrients across dozens of different crops are all being affected. So that includes everything from really essential staples like rice and wheat and soybeans, to lettuce, to potatoes, to sweet peppers, to canola. And one of the really interesting things is that

every plant seems to be affected a little bit differently. So for example chickpeas, like you mentioned, you know, between the 1980s and 2040 zinc and chickpeas is expected to decline almost 40 percent. Wow, but you know, really it is across the board, most nutrients and most plants are seeing

“some kind of decrease. Across the board, this research I think found that nutrients fell by”

the little over 3 percent since the late 1980s. But you write that that's actually,

it sounds small, but it's pretty significant in terms of the potential health impacts. Yeah, and that's because nutrient deficiency is a huge public health problem around the world, and a lot of people live kind of on the brink of nutrient insufficiency. And so just a small decrease in particularly in stable crops, like rice and wheat, can lead to huge consequences for those people, particularly in low-income countries where a lot of people might get half of their calories

from something like rice. You know, if that rice becomes less nutritious and they're getting half of their calories from it, all of a sudden, that's a big decline. So what can we do about this? I mean, is there a way to make up for the loss of nutrition in these crops? Is everyone going to have to take supplements? Yeah, I mean, it really depends on who you are and what resources you have. So those of us who live in wealthy countries where we're able to afford really diverse diets,

this shouldn't be too big of a problem. What the experts that I talked to are really worried about is what happens in low-income countries. And, you know, one of the solutions, the potential solutions is these fortification programs. A lot of countries already have them where they will add

nutrients to flour or rice, but there are something like 2 billion people around the world who

already suffer health problems, whether that's anemia, from lack of iron or immune system problems from lack of zinc. So if these fortification programs aren't solving the problem that already exists, the experts were kind of dubious that they would be able to compensate for the problem that's going to get even bigger as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases. In the obvious solution is to stop admitting carbon dioxide, but we are so off track on those goals. And it's interesting

you actually mentioned this in the story that opponents of climate action often like to say, "Well, more carbon is good for plants. It increases growth." But this evidence sort of gives

“light to that argument, right? Yeah, I think it's a lot more complicated than just saying plants”

need carbon to grow, therefore carbon is good. The other reality is that climate change, which is caused by carbon dioxide pollution, is also making it harder to grow our food. There's wildfires and floods and extreme heat and drought. All of these things are critically depleting yields, and you get not just a decrease in the quality of crops, but also probably a decrease in quantity. And both of those things are huge problems that really are addressed by reducing carbon dioxide

emissions. Sarah Kaplan is a climate reporter for the Washington Post where she wrote about the invisible force making our food less nutritious. She and graphics reporter Nema Ahmed share the byline on the story. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. If you want more on how climate change is affecting our food and vice versa, check out the podcast I host how we survive. We did a whole season on the topic. And we've got a brand new season coming

out later this month. It's all about engineering nature, large-scale climate interventions, some say could be our last hope. Here's a sneak peek from the trailer. Are you talking about darkening the sky? So a constellation of sunshades would cast an even

out there, like really out there. Investing that much in building anything in space creates

a whole space economy. And talking with entrepreneurs trying to bring these ideas to life.

“The only thing worse than a product company doing this is no-one doing this at all.”

Do other view of a science background? We don't know. If we do this, this is a decision that will effect all life on the planet. All's we are our guinea pigs in their laboratory. How we survive? Season 9 launches May 27th. Mitchell talked earlier about the rising cost of living. The latest American affordability tracker from the Urban Institute found that even before the recent run-up in gas prices,

nearly half of families struggled to pay for essentials like food, child care and housing.

Wages aren't keeping up with rising costs even beyond traditionally expensive parts of the country. One potential solution is adult education. Programs that can help people increase their earnings power as prices rise. Sarah Ash from the Texas Standard has that story. In a packed auditorium at

“Austin Community Colleges Eastview campus, Suha Kabakli addresses students being inducted into”

the National Adult Education Honor Society. I made a choice. I will pursue my future with determination. In 2010, when she was 17, Palestinian refugee Kabakli moved from Iraq to Austin with no high school diploma in tow. Schooling wasn't so easy for her in Texas either. I was bullied a lot

for not speaking English, for wearing scarf. What was expecting was to be that much. She dropped out

after three months. Got married, had two kids, and then in 2021, she decided to get her GED, so she could have a career of her own. My husband told me go to school. Don't just be a home, don't wait for anybody to do things for you, you fight for yourself. People get GEDs with the variety of career goals. Electrician, Mortician, EMS, Parallel Eagle, but one commonality is that their earning potential goes up when they get the certificate. Sharon Bonney, CEO of the coalition

“on Adult Basic Education, says improving educational outcomes for adults is one way to combat the”

affordability crisis. There have been studies done that show for every dollar given to adult education. There's a $60 return to the economy because it helps them to get a better job. A better job means people pay more taxes and have more money to buy consumer goods. They are also less likely to need public assistance, according to literacy Pittsburgh CEO Kerry Harris. If any, they become much more self-sufficient and that pays dividends for all of us.

Harris says historically adult education enrollment has increased when the economy slows down. This is true, not just for GED classes, but also workforce training certifications, because people need to upscale to get back in the job market and be competitive. Also, because these programs are free for the goes part, this is a way to get upskilled without investing money.

Cavacly says the free classes she can access at Austin Community College after completing her GED was one draw to continuing her education. Her goal is to become a radiologist because of the job prospects, and she also likes the opportunity for continuing education within the field. Then readyology you keep growing, and that is no stop to it. Austin Community College receives money from the federal government to help fund programs

like the one Cavacly is in. These dollars have been on certain in recent months, President Trump proposed deep cuts in his 2026 budget proposal, though Congress did reject them. And when you look at the numbers, it's hard to argue with the value of a dual education. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, people with a high school diploma earn about $10,000 more a year than those without. Adult education can be a long road,

but Austin Community College Adult Education Dean Kathy Doudie says it offers students a way forward. They need a place to come and to have hope, and that's us. Cavacly is on that long road now, taking classes online. Her hope for her daughter is the same message she shared with her fellow adult

as students at ACC. I want to be a living example for her. I'm fighting for it. And I'm not going to stop fight for it until I get it. At the moment, that fight looks like an English composition course and elementary statistics.

Coming up, a trip to a solar island in Brazil. But first, let's do the numbers.

“The Dow Jones industrial average gained 95 points, two cents per cent, a finish of 49,000,”

704, the Nasdaq added 27 points, 110% to close a 26,274, and the S&P 500 ticked up 13 points, 210% to end at 7412. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose just two tenths of a percent in April and were flat year over year, looking at single family homes in particular, sales were three tenths of a percent lower than they were in this time last year. Sales were sluggish thanks to higher interest rates,

bonds fell and related news, the yield on the 10-year t-note rose to 4.41 percent.

You're listening to Marketplace. So this is Marketplace, I'm Amy Scott. Unless you tune out during the numbers, you've no doubt heard that the Nasdaq and S&P have been hitting one record high after another, in spite of all the uncertainties surrounding the war in the Middle East. That's thanks, of course, to the AI boom and specifically chipmaker stocks in videos at the

top of the heap, but its competitors, Intel, Micron, AMD, and Qualcomm have been on a

tear for the last month or so too. Research from JP Morgan says that's encouraged a slew of retail

investors to pile into the chip market, and as Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino reports, it could be a sign that this boom is headed for a bust. With started as a frenzy for Nvidia processors, has rippled through almost every layer of the computing supply chain as demand for AI has bloomed. The word I hear a lot is parabolic to stock prices going straight up. Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research,

points to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index of chip designers and manufacturers. It's up more than 50% in the last six weeks, and that's giving Goldberg flashbacks of the dot com boom. Every time you start to see your people saying, "This time is different.

“This is a new economy." I think it's right to sort of be cautious.”

At a rush of retail investors, once prices are soaring, and the warning lights really start blinking, says William Quinn, an economic historian at Queen's University Bell Fast. He says retail investors tend to be later and less informed than institutional investors. So they're buying because of the hype or because the price has gone up, and they're extrapolating that into the future, then the prices can lose all connection to what these assets

are actually worth. Queen says bubbles are often preceded by innovations that make it easier for retail investors to buy and sell assets. The rise of e-trade in the dot com boom, Robin Hood today. These cheating apps are just the next iteration of thought, so no, you don't even have to get out of bad to buy and sell these assets. But the business fundamentals of chip companies are much stronger than the dot coms during the boom, argue Stacey Razgan, Senior Analyst at Bernstein Research.

The driver of this, like so far, has actually surprised we've been earnings. It hasn't necessarily been irrational. Unlike pets.com, chipmakers are reporting massive revenues and big tech has

“signaled ever-greater spending. Whether that growth is sustainable is the key question, says”

Jed Ellerbrook, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital. He says anything from the effects of the war to lackluster returns on investment could slow the data center boom. There is just so much writing on this AI buildout that in itself is a risk factor for the market. But for now, the chips are still up. I'm making the carty carino from marketplace.

While the U.S. government has retreated from renewable energy under President Trump, the global

“transition away from fossil fuels continues, the International Energy Agency predicts renewable”

capacity will more than double by 2030, led mostly by solar energy. In Brazil, some 30,000 solar panels are being installed on a small archipelago that is one of the country's most famous tourist destinations. The aim is to make the area almost completely carbon-free by next year, part of a wider effort across the country to shift to solar, Gizella Regatau reports. For another genotongous main island is tiny, seven square miles, and isolated,

220 miles off the northeast coast of Brazil. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the island has lush

vegetation, huge volcanic rocks, and a blue ocean that is home to dull things, sharks,

“turtles, and all sorts of fish. Neroia has around 3,000 residents, and a record of 139,000 tourists”

visited the archipelago last year. 5% above the limit set by the government. Until now, its electrical grid was powered by a diesel-fueled thermal plant. For many residents here, the shift to solar is a no-brainer. It will reduce pollution on the island. Gizella is very polluting so as to fill up the silver at a beach shack. The new solar power plant in Maroia occupies 53 acres riding front of the airport.

It will generate 22 megawatts of electricity. Almost 4 times the current consumption. Many residents wanted solar panels to be installed on their roofs to avoid clearing any forest

“on the island. But Leonard Moura, operational superintendent of Neo-Indigia, the company”

that distributes electricity here, says they couldn't do that. They needed the plan to be equipped with a battery system that stores energy to serve the island at night. He says the project was approved by the Ministry of Energy and followed all environmental regulations. "We are going to have the least possible impact. The solar panels will occupy 1.5% of notering a territory," he says. "Moura says that starting next year,

the diesel plant will just serve as a backup during rainy days, for example. More than 11 months a year, the island will be 100% carbon free, he says.

The new plant costs $70 million and is being built in partnership with the federal and state

governments. Customers want pay higher fees, more than 40% of Brazil's electricity comes from hydropower, but solar is growing and is already second with 25%. Solar panels are also being installed in remote regions of the Amazon as part of a federal program, almost 1 million people in that region don't have access to electricity. John Werdig, energy transition manager at the non-profit Ariara, believes solar power makes sense for Nauranya. But he says the archipelago also

needs to improve energy efficiency. Many public buildings are old and newer, faster hotels need more electricity. There are hotels with one jacuzzi per room. That's a crazy idea for an island that has the most beautiful ocean in the world he says. In addition to the transition to solar, a ban on combustion vehicles will suppose to take effect in Nauranya last year. That's on hold until 2030. In Fernández Nauranya, Brazil, I'm just a Lurega towel for Marketplace.

Final note on the way out today. Coming next year, Werdel, the TV show. The New York Times and NBC Universal announced today, they're teeming up to produce a game show based on the five letter word guessing game. To be hosted by Savannah Guthrie with Jimmy Fallon as a producer launched by Wells Software Engineer Josh Werdel during COVID, the free game united lockdown weary players across the world before the Times acquired it for an undisclosed low seven figure sum. Whatever they

paid him today, I'm thinking he could have asked for more. Amir Bibawi, Caitlyn Esch, John Gordon,

news director and I'm Amy Scott. Hope to see you back here tomorrow.

“This is APN. Hey, it's Francis Lamb, host of the Splendid Table podcast. Every week on our show,”

we celebrate the intersection of food and life. In this month, we're releasing a new series called

Culinary Masters. It highlights some of the iconic people in the food world. We're revisiting

“conversations with people who have fundamentally changed how many of us cook and think about food.”

People like Jacques Papan, Claudia Rodin, Antonio Bourdain, the name of few. You can listen to this

the special series now, just search for the Splendid table in your podcast app.