What to expect in the April jobs report

you know what we can do both. From American public media, this is market products.

In Los Angeles, I'm John Rizdall, it is Wednesday, the 6th of May, it is always heavy along

everybody. We're going to start with jobs because well, you got to choose and there was some labor market news this morning. The payroll process in company ADP says private employers added 109,000 jobs last month, more than expected, also nearly doubled the March number.

The official Tally, as you might remember, comes Friday from the Labor Department. It will be the latest update in a top-sea-turvy start to this labor market year. Good thing, then, that we've got Marketplace and Mitchell Harbin to make sense of it all for us. Economist predictions for April job creation are all over the map from 50,000 on up.

Bill Adams at 5/3 commercial bank is predicting 120,000 new jobs after the bullish report on private sector growth from ADP. The employers added jobs at the fastest pace since early 2025, jobless claims ticking lower in recent weeks, another sign that people who are losing jobs are finding them relatively quickly.

True, the Iran war and soaring oil prices are a major source of uncertainty for employers going forward, but Adams says after holding back on hiring in the face of tariff uncertainty last year, many businesses are now feeling more confident. With tailwinds from tax cuts at the turn of the year increases in government spending and

“then the Fed's rate cuts in late 2025, I think a lot of businesses feel they are ready”

to move forward with some hiring that they may have delayed in 2025. There are worrying signs in the mix of jobs the economy's creating says Dan North that credit ensure alliance trade. What growth there has been in jobs has mostly come in one industry, healthcare, driven largely by the needs of aging baby boomers.

That to me is a little bit fragile. Gosh, what would it be if we didn't have an aging population? Well then you'd have to wonder, where is the growth coming from? Another cause for concern deteriorating wage growth says Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Back in 2024 and 2025, average hourly earnings were rising around 4 percent a year.

But by March 2026, wage gains had fallen to just 3.5 percent at the same time inflation was spiking from the Iran war. In a context where inflation's somewhere around 3 percent, you're talking about real wage growth going to near zero. The roting workers purchasing power, I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Wall Street today, broken record though I may sound like traders do seem to be thinking again that the war is almost over, we will have the details when we do the numbers.

“I think that's quite a bit of a problem.”

Crude oil felt that they'd down quite a bit actually on news that negotiations to end the war might be getting serious. Still though, the straight-of-hormous is functionally closed. Global supplies are down all while oil demand has stayed pretty consistent. For now.

Anyway, we have called Katherine Wolferm to talk it over. She's a professor of energy economics at MIT's Sloan School of Management. We'll talk oil and something called demand destruction here in this ninth week of the war.

First, Wolferm, thanks for being on the program.

Thanks so much for having me. At the risk of oversimplifying, perhaps, but also in search of clarity, could you use demand destruction in a sentence for me, please? Sure, when the price of a good goes up, then consumers consume less of it and the difference between what they were consuming before the price went up and what they're consuming after

the price went up is the demand that's destroyed. Excellent. Now, we have had, as anybody who's been reading the papers or listening to the radio knows, we've had supply destruction by a fairly well with the straight-of-hormous closed.

“Why haven't we actually seen as much demand destruction as one might have theorized?”

So I'm not sure what one might have theorized, but what demand destruction is doing right

So we should be very welcoming to the demand destruction that we are seeing because, as you

“said, the supply is going away, because of the closure of the straight-of-hormous, so really”

what's balancing the market is the demand destruction in partnership with some inventories that are being tapped into and that are coming on to the market right now. So let's get to those inventories, because at some point, as much oil as is locked into the Persian Gulf right now, as is locked in, we're going to get to the last barrel of those inventories, sort of, you know, macro-speaking here.

What does that look like? No, I guess, I don't think we'll ever get to those last barrels because the inventories are super valuable as kind of like a rainy day fund, but the longer the supply shock goes on, the more it's like not a shock, it's just the new normal.

And so then you've got to start making sure that demand and supply balance, and you can't

do that within inventories forever. You kind of want to save them for another rainy day or, you know, an even worse rainy day. So we're not just going to draw down the inventories until they go away, we will start the longer this last, we'll start having to adjust to a new normal. And that new normal will be demand being destroyed, and price is going up, yes?

Yep, yep, it will. All right. More new supply coming on the market as well.

“I mean, at the higher prices, that's what you'll see.”

You seem very calm at a time where oil markets are just going anywhere. Yeah, I mean, I'm calm because I believe in markets, and I think markets will help us balance things, but I don't want to be too glib about it. I mean, yeah, I guess I worry more about the demand that's not being destroyed because that's the demand that's left paying the really high prices.

Same more about that. Yeah, I mean, the demand that is being destroyed, that's where people are finding alternatives, maybe they are not traveling to see a friend, but they are still commuting to go to work. And when they commute to go to work, they're paying much higher gas prices than they were before, and that crowds out other spending, that's just, you know, that's hard on consumer

pocket bucks and on firms bottom lines. Yeah, what's it like teaching energy economics 101 and MIT these days must be an interesting time? Yeah, so I came into it, I'm co-teaching with a colleague of mine, and he's teaching the electricity half, and I'm kind of jealous, because electricity, that's funny, he gets electricity,

you get oil. Yeah, I get oil, oil and gas, but man, did I get the good draw this year, it's been super interesting. I bet it has, and a little tiring, come on, right? Yeah, I've got to make slides like 30 minutes before class so that they're up to date.

I don't want to make them the night before, because things might change, and don't check your social feed. The pattern of welfare is a professor of economics, energy economics, actually, at MIT, the Sloan School of Management, Professor, thanks for your time, I appreciate it. Thanks so much, take care.

Almost half of this entire country is in a drought, that's according to drought monitor. There are varying levels of severity, of course, and varying levels of economic risk and uncertainty that come with that drought.

“In corporate's Christy Texas, where the energy sector is a key driver of the regional”

economy, but also a major water user, things have already reached a crisis, as Marketplace is a Elizabeth Trovall reports. It's weeks away from hurricane season here on the Texas Gulf Coast, and they couldn't come soon enough for people here in Corpus Christy, like Bob Paulson. Sort of a dark joke that you hear around town all the time.

We're praying to get head on, direct hit by a hurricane. That's because Corpus Christy needs the rain desperately. The local lake in reservoir are at just 8%. If the city doesn't get enough rainfall by September, there are plans for widespread 25% cuts to water usage.

This is like the Texas State Aquarium, or preparing. So, we're bringing in raw salt water.

We basically send it through really, really large sand filters, same thing you would see

on your pool. I'm in a bathroom with aquarium CEO Jesse Gilbert, who is showing me where water from the Corpus Christy Bay flows in. This is the water of the sharks and stingrays swimming.

be healthy.

While most of the aquariums water comes directly from the ocean, they still use fresh

water to operate their bathrooms, eateries, and splash park. Back in his office Gilbert tells me they're undergoing plans to decrease their fresh water use by 30%. We've developed some clever ways to completely take the splash park off of the potable water systems.

As the city's biggest tourist attraction besides the beach, I ask him if he worries if the brand of Corpus Christy is hurt by this crisis.

“I think about it every day, but it sounds like we don't have water and you can't come”

and enjoy vacation of Corpus Christy, that's not true. And he has a longer-term worry, attracting aquarium staff who may not want to move to a city in water crisis. Directly across the ship channel from the aquarium, I talked to Port of Corpus Christy CEO Kent Britain.

So, every day through this ship channel moves about $340 million worth of goods, majority

of it is export. The port here is busier than ever, crude oil, LNG, diesel jet fuel, gasoline. What the world is in short supply of right now moves through this energy hub. These exporters are an engine of the local economy. Many are also big water users, which is why Britain says the city needs to find more sources

of water.

“We don't want anyone to have to shut down.”

We don't want curtailment. We don't want it for our industry. We don't want it for our residents. Even if the city isn't enforcing large-scale curtailment yet, the looming water crisis. So, it's going to limit our ability to bring in large-scale industry in the future.

I ask if he's seen companies decide not to come to Corpus because of the water issues. We have had a couple that were very favorable to come in here in past years who ended up making a decision not to, because of the dwindling water supplies. The energy industry is a major consumer of water. The city knew that when they approved plans to sell their water.

Frequently, it things are portrayed as industry uses too much water. That's Bob Paulson with the Coast Abandoned History Association, which represents the big energy and chemical companies in town.

“I think that misses the point, the larger point, that it's a combination of long-term”

drought, along with 100% dependent on surface water. He says industry has been updating their facilities to use less water ahead of large-scale water curtailment, but he says if the water crisis did end up forcing industry to shut down operations. I mean, you're talking about probably hundreds of folks that don't have a job.

On the Corpus Christi Bay, the energy industry is booming, but the impending water crisis here is casting a shadow on this so-called Sparkling City by the sea. In Corpus Christi, Texas, I'm Elizabeth Troval from Marketplace. That ADP payroll report this morning showed hiring is happening at companies both big and small.

So we called one of our regulars whose business is decidedly on the smaller side, Eric Vaughn, runs the custom framing shop, Eric's I've been framed, it's in Detroit, Michigan.

It's always busy around here, got a lot to do, just come off of a major contract with

the Detroit Institute of Arts. We did about 150 frames, yes, 150 frames, and so it was pretty big this year. We're getting a lot of new clients, a lot of times new clients aren't really familiar with custom picture framing, it's been a little tough because I spend a lot of time working with the client and everything has gone up and pricing, and that's been a challenge because

the pricing of frames have gone up, the price to ship pieces have gone up, overall it's just been a really tough thing to do and to educate people on the new pricing but we seem to overcome it. It's just me and one other guy and he's kind of up there and age like myself and I had a young man to come in yesterday, he was interested in employment here and I gave him a card so

good with trying to hire someone and hopefully he can meet all of my little requirements.

“My wife is also a business owner and she's in having the same kind of issues and trying”

to find help and trying to figure out how we're going to retire so yeah we're just but I'm still having fun and I don't know she's having as much fun as I am but I know I'm having a good time having fun with the people and the work of the clients. Eric Vaughan making custom frames have fun too in Detroit. Coming up, a couple of years ago it was like a man's sanctuary you come and go everybody

come to the barber shop the plumber the dentist. As times change economies change but first let's do the numbers down industrial's up 600 and 12 today 1 and a quarter percent finished at 49,910 the NASDAQ added 512 points that

is 2 percent 25,838 the S&P 500 gained 105 points 1 and a half percent 73 65 1 does

wonder whether traders are reading the room.

“Remember how crap times was going to split itself into two companies but then pause that”

break up earlier this year. Since then it's done pretty well the condiment and grocery maker beat analyst expectations and profit estimates for quarter number one crap times cooked up two and a third percent today. The AI boom is brightening the outlook for a 175 year old glass making company and he guesses come on you'll know as soon as I say it corning with up 12 percent after announcing it a deal to make advanced fiber optic products for in video the chip maker accumulated

five and two thirds of one percent on the day cosmetics conglomerate Cody told investor sales are taking a hit because of the war in the Middle East petroleum very big in that industry the parents of colony cosmetics and cover girl added three and a half percent you're listening to marketplace. If you're trying to grow your business into a quick books payroll is an

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move forward proactively move from reactive to proactive with brand new tools by making the switch to quick books workforce today learn more at quickbooks.com/workforce that's quickbooks.com/workforce this is Marketplace I'm Kai Rizdom the new is CEO of the Walt Disney company is love and life

right now Disney reported stronger than expected quarterly earnings today Josh the morrow's first

as the guy in charge. Streaming was a particular bright spot it's now a bigger business than linear television is for Disney's entertainment division. So what happens I guess when you're ace prices like all the big platforms have been doing Netflix now it's second price hike in just over a year the other day. It seems we are firmly in the era of streaming profitability whether consumers are grumpy about it or not Marketplace at Megan McCarty Carino has that story.

Back in the innocent days of early 2023 when I first connected with New Orleans sports fanatic Jonathan Barnes he subscribed to streaming services with abandoned usually seven or eight at a time but things have changed he tells me today. You've done having to look at your bigger corner saying okay well you know how much am I actually watching all six seven eight of these subscription services which ones do like truly truly need. For Barnes who has a young kid Disney

plus is non-negotiable. They kind of have me into Choco. He's a big WWE fan. He's got YouTube live to cover sports and added on Hulu with his Disney bundle. We're not thrilled because again the subscription services continue to go up but we felt that consolidating him was much more effective.

You know streaming wasn't going to be something for the users it's there to make money for the mass media companies but he says consumers seem to be getting used to it. You're seeing something similar that you saw with cable for years where people would complain the bill is going up but they would still pay for it. In fact households surveyed by market research firm parks associates actually increased the number of services they subscribed to over

the last quarter. An average of six says director of research Michael Goodman. The amount household

“spend also increased in that period from 108 to 113 dollars per month. I think bundling has a”

lot to do with this because they're able to get more bang for their buck here that they're able to get multiple services without having to pay for each one individually. Consumers are also looking for value often choosing lower priced plans with ads says John Geegan Gack with hub entertainment research. We didn't use the C people switch back and forth between tears all that often but it's definitely something that's happening more often and I

think it's something that will continue to go on as the prices continue to rise. He says consumers also report feeling less bothered by ads than they were in the past or maybe they're just resigned to them. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace. It's tough to overstayed how important the barber shop is in black American culture. It's been

“the subject of paintings, the setting for movies and at least one talk show. It's a place for”

men to talk sports and politics and whatever else is on their minds. But barber shop culture is changing and it turns out the pandemic and the ensuing hangover had a lot to do with that from Brooklyn

here's James Bennett the second. For years decades even I watched peers and guys older than me

go to the barber shop every other week it seemed like the norm but then COVID it and a lot of us started working from home. I used to work in the office all the time so I would get a haircut religiously like every one and a half to two weeks and then the pandemic happened so let people basically stop taking care of themselves. This is Evan Harris he used to pay his barber $25 cash for those haircuts and after the pandemic the price rose to about $60 after tip and then he had a revelation.

I realized like I don't need to get a haircut as frequently I work from home semi-frequently now

“it's less important to be like super crisp all the time. One of the big reasons the price”

of a haircut is going up is because barbers are spending more on supplies. Sure what the lower cuts hair at a shop in Fort Green he says a pack of once five dollar raisers are now 10. A roll of paper next strips once 50 cents a dollar now three bucks and the spray he uses to clean and disinfect the blades. The cool care used to be 69 and nine now you go to the store you probably pay $15 for a kind of cool care. I'm a pair of clips run you anyway we've been $150

to 300 bucks a few years ago those clippers could have run as little as $80. Rising costs have forced them to up the price of his haircuts by more than 50% over the past five years and now that he's charging that much he says customers want their routine haircuts to feel like a

luxury experience and you go to the the doctor he's always in his wide down you know you go

to an office you know he's dressed properly why can't you because you're given a service to the public people want to see a value is tended for your pricing the lower's been a barber for over 15 years and one of the biggest changes he's seen is customers who come in less frequently than the used to full disclosure he's been my barber for more than five years. I would have clients come in maybe three times a month now you get in probably once a month he and how it's so it's

I see you're looking at me man. No no no no. Yeah you want of them. He's right these days I get in there about every month and a half. Higher prices have also changed the culture inside the barber shop. Dexter Barrow cuts hair and the more working class neighborhood a flat bus. He's not charging 40 bucks up from $25 and 2019 and he's noticed a different feeling in his shop too. A couple of years ago it was like a man's sanctuary you come and go everybody comes to the barber shop the plumber the dentists

the lawyers. Everybody becomes the one who comes to the shop. But now with the higher prices the vibe shift. Barrow says fewer people are just hanging around the shop. Today it's just like a more business transaction is the cut and go get your money and go. In charging and getting paid

more some barbers have talked to feel like they're being recognized as the professionals they always

In New York I am James Bender for a second from Marketplace this final note on the way out today

“in which what appreciates the presidential administrations do try to spend the news to their best”

advantage. Kevin has it. The director of President Trump's National Economic Council went on

Fox News to date offer his take. Credit card spending is through the roof. They're spending more on

“gasoline but they're spending more on everything else too. Maxi out credit cards usually sub-optimal”

economically speaking has it also said this morning by the way that he expects economic growth to hit

4% this year. Ladies reading we had the other day 2% on the nose. Our media production team includes

“Brian Allison, John Fokie, Montana Johnson, Drew Jostant, Gary O'Keef, Charlton Thorpe as well. Alex Simpson”

is the manager of Media Production and I'm Kai Rizdahl We Wills here tomorrow everybody. This is APM. Business and the ways we do it are changing in ways that are both more subtle and more radical than you realize welcome to compound interest from some of our business. I'm Liz Hoffman and I'm Rohan Goswami. We've been covering the forces behind this revolution but now we want to talk directly to the people driving that change. Each week we'll talk to the

operators, the experts and the innovators to go beyond the headlines. We'll dig into everything from hospitality companies that no longer own hotels to companies that will finance through sushi order while unpack the transformation of how business and consumers engage with our economy and figure out what lies ahead. Listen to compound interest from some of our business wherever you get your podcasts.