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It can be helpful to a real help. Let's start with a test of how to fill one of your problems. Of choppy fry.de/recorder. Welcome back to the world and time of the tour. I'm Ben Ridd.
So Ben, I genuinely thought Trump might stage some sort of like dramatic military
βoperation for the day after his way to his correspondent speech to match the 2011 Obamaβ
operation weekend. I didn't see this coming. No, not that it was staged, but it was bad. But it was dramatic. Not that it was staged. I, it was bad.
It was bad.
First of all, it's always bad by someone's bad.
Violence is bad. But you hate feeling like you feel like always repeat that line. Yeah, no shit. It's bad. What was it ever not bad?
And by the way, it's just, it's idiotic. It's wrong and it doesn't do anything to help what that guy is seem to say. I don't care about it. No, it's going to help Trump politically. I did think that I'm just going to go there to tell me like the, there's not a
Trump point, actually, this, you know, I've been there dinner a lot times. And I feel bad that that was a unsettling potentially scary situation. It is also the case that that ballroom is like about like a football field walked down a densely carpeted hotel room. That's magnum, magnometers, down a flight of stairs or an escalator into a heavily secured
cabinet's ballroom. And so let's just say some of the media is putting itself at the center of this as if they survived like, you know, the battle, the bulge was that was the part of the discourse it. I mean, yes, I expect the Republicans to cynically blame Jimmy Kim or whatever.
And that's always frustrating.
But like the number of people that acted like they just went through, you know, like literally, the battle of the bulge here was a, yeah, much to me. I look. I don't blame the reporters for being scared. I would be scared chillists have also under gunshots going off.
But like the, the Republicans who were trying to compare what happened over the last weekend to Butler, like, that's a crazy comparison of bullet hit his ear. Yeah. As you said, this guy was nowhere near. He wasn't in the man.
Yeah. If he'd done this thing like 30 minutes earlier, he might have had a lot of people in range to fire. You never know. That's the scary, like scenario.
Well, this guy actually had no idea what he was doing. I mean, look, there are serious questions actually that are interesting about why they're keeping these kind of security breaches close calls. Yeah. By the way, they were a bunch of the Obama years bullets hit the White House.
Well, it's hit the Truman balcony. Didn't someone throw a grenade like got pretty close to Trump or to Bush at 1.2? This event, we should just say, is not a very secure event. No. It actually is in the ballroom.
Like, I guess from the Secret Service standpoint, they secure that ballroom. That's where the president's going to be. Right? The president doesn't walk in through the mags. He comes in through like an underground parking garage or something and is suddenly
in a secure ballroom. But the captain built in his gigantic complex that anybody's staying there, like, they don't have to be attached to the dinner. They can wander through the lobby.
There's always like little sub parties on the exterior way.
It's not not sure that this event, like this event is already past its expiration date. That's cursed. And now it's like, this is another point that maybe don't have this event at this big non-secure hotel where lunatics can walk in off the street.
βAnd yeah, you may secure the ballroom, but that's the Secret Service agent, you know?β
Then God, there was a bulletproof vest. Yeah. It's weird. By the way, thank you everyone who subscribed to Potsay the World on YouTube wherever you get the show.
We solemnly pledge to you to never attend the White House correspondent's dinner. And also, if we do, and there is an incident, we will point the camera. Outward. Outward. Outward.
Yeah, we'll show you what's happening. Not our old S-Faces. Real quick. Are the Red Sox worse than the Mets? I think the Mets are worse.
We just fired our entire staff. The Mets have scored two runs or less, and I think more than half their games, and have nine wins. Okay. And so far.
The biggest payroll in Major League of Legends.
That's bad. Look at that. That's really bad.
βSpeaking of bad, do you see Trump's going to put his own face on the U.S. passport,β
maybe? I do not. Yeah. I'm going to check.
We're on a passport wallet.
In case I need to flee at any moment, and I'm going to check my expiration date. Mine's coming up. And it looks like mine extends past the Trump administration, so I do not have to get a Donald Trump passport. Okay.
You're good to go. Okay. Why? That's a lie podcast. That's good.
That's a, that's helpful for everybody. So, great show today. We're going to start with the peace talks or lecture of between the U.S. and Iran, what the end game for this war might actually look like. We're going to talk with the latest data about the global economic
impact, and then more data concern about the dwindling U.S. munitions stockpiles. We'll also cover by President J.D. Vance's very subtle attempts to spin and duck accountability for this war.
Have you caught this at all?
Have you seen this? Yes. You know, kidding. I delighted. This is what the algorithm's feeding me.
It's not giving me the White House correspondence, and it's giving me like J.D. Vance. It's so funny. I talked to some not go people, and when I was in DC last weekend, who are all remarking on how brazen Vance is spinning, and all the others around Trapper spinning, how opposed they were to this war.
We'll get to it. We'll also cover the latest from Lebanon. They weren't talking about King Charles's trip to the U.S., the highlights, the low lights, the bizarre sexual in UNDO, his speech to the joint session of Congress, which is actually kind of funny.
Then we're going to talk about the spiraling security situation in Mali after the government came under attack from an al-Qaeda linked terrorist group over the weekend. We're going to share with you some more examples of a grieges corruption of U.S. foreign policy because it's an endless story.
And finally, a wild story about CIA operations in Mexico, got drug cartels, there was a
tragic car accident, Mexican president Claudia Sheenbombs, kind of delicate balance between sovereignty and nationalism and dealing with Donald Trump, so very fun for her.
βAnd then I've been either interviewed today, would you, which talk about that?β
I did. There's a group called Dehab Democracy Hub that is releasing an anti-authoritarian toolkit. This is an effort to learn from activists around the world about what's working and fight against authoritarianism. So I took to be watching my friends, Federica Nick, who are both activists of themselves,
who help put this together. We talked about the value of this kind of exercise, how they went about it. Some of the lessons about how to do social media better, how to have networks of influencers, how to kind of mobilize people, how to do a kind of distributed form of organizing where you're not trying to control the message everywhere, but you're trying to get people
enough guidance that they're coordinated, but enough freedom that they can run campaigns to make sense where they are. So lessons learned that can be applied around the world for how to fight authoritarianism. Kevin, give him the Dehab. Gotta give him the Dehab.
Gotta give him the Dehab. Yeah, dictators. Excellent. Definitely going to check that out. All right, let's start with Iran.
So this U.S. Iran ceasefire is kind of holding, right? But there's nine hundred pounds of highly enrich uranium, still sitting Iran, straight on loses clothes, huge parks of global economy, or just paralyzed, and they're seemingly no end in sight other than that. It's good.
On Saturday Trump canceled his negotiating team's trip to Pakistan, we're going to listen to a clip from him explaining why. Probably heard that we can't told the trip. We have all the cards. We're not going to spend 15 hours in airplanes all the time going back and forth to be giving
a document that was not good enough. And so we'll deal by telephone, and they can call us anytime they want. Again, we have all the cards. I have no military left practically. I have no leaders left, we don't know who the leaders are, nobody knows who the leaders are.
I don't think they know who the leaders are very important. We're not going to be traveling 15, 16 hours to have a meeting with people that nobody ever heard of. Traveling takes too long to expensive, I'm a very cost-conscious person. They are fighting with each other, it is tremendous infighting, they're probably fighting
for leadership.
βIn many cases, I think they're fighting not to be the leader, because we knocked out twoβ
levels of leaders. But I'll deal with whoever we have to, interestingly, immediately when I cancel it, within 10 minutes, we got a new paper that was much better, they offered a lot, but not enough. I love this idea that the cost we're all worried about is like JD Vance's Ryan Air taken.
He was long about Axios reported that Iran is offered a more limited deal, maybe that was referencing there. They would reopen the straight-of-home moves if the U.S. ends the blockade and ends the war. It punts all the nuclear talks down the road.
That's nothing, no. The problem, I suspect this is going to be the kind of deal of bump ends up being forced to take. But interestingly, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, came out of his post-arron war, hiding wherever his witness protection program he's been in since he went to the sticks on
Capitol Hill and was like, Israel made us do it in a ran away and didn't speak again for a month. But here he is on Fox News, kind of shitting on the kind of deal we just described. Let's watch. If what they mean by opening the straights is, yes, the straights are open as long as
you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we'll blow you up, and you pay us.
That's not opening the straights, those are international waterways.
They cannot normalize, nor can we tolerate them trying to normalize a system in which the
βIranians decide who gets to use an international waterway and how much you have to payβ
them to use it.
The straights is basically the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon that they're trying
to use against the world. And they're bragging about it. That's exactly what's happening. That's correct. Yep.
It seems like they're doing it. Guess what? They weren't doing that before the fucking war. A lot of cards as described by Mark Rubio. So Ben, as we all know, there's nothing in better in life than when you have like shitty
plans, like some shitty dinner and it gets canceled. So a Iranian Foreign Minister of Ossarachiy, he used that time. He got back flat Russia, he went to see Vladimir Putin, he told Russian state media that Iran is quit standing up to the world's greatest superpower, and that the U.S. is a request to talk because it has, quote, "not achieved a single one of their goals, and that Iran
is considering whatever they put forward." Putin said, quote, "We'll do everything that serves your interests and the interests of all the people in the region in order to ensure that this peace is achieved as soon as possible." Also, I'm sure you caught Ben, the German Chancellor of Friedrich Merz, weighed in saying that, quote, "an entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially
by these so-called revolutionary guards that nation being ours."
Yes. On Tuesday, Trump posted this weird message on truth socialally said, quote, "The Iran has just informed us that they are in a state of collapse. They want us to open the whole mood straight as soon as possible as they try to figure out
βtheir leadership situation, which I believe they'll be able to do.β
But I love that idea of some Iranian officials calling Trump, being like, "Uncle, sir. You did it. You got us." I think that message was sent one minute before the stock market opened, so it congrats to everybody who had some futures trades put down.
So Ben, two things, I'm curious what you make of Iraqis trip to see Putin in the Russian role, like Russia could be trying to facilitate a deal, Putin could be trying to sell some weapons. Either way, he seems to be saying, "I'm here. I'm a player in this.
You got to deal with me too." And then on the end game, like the Trump administration seems to think that their leverage is keeping the blockade in place long enough so that Iran runs out of storage for oil and basically has to shut down its wells and kill off its own industry. It's not clear how long that would take how much storage capacity they have left and ultimately
this is a game of economic chicken that will crush Asian economies, poor countries, the Iranian people, but probably won't matter to the IRGC because they will enforce their
βwill at gun points, so I don't get it, but what do you make of this play?β
I think we just have to name because sometimes our media is incapable of doing this. What a complete, abject, fucking failure, catastrophic decision this was by Donald Trump, and that he can't spin his way out of that. On the eve of the war, he was talking about regime change in the destruction of the nuclear program entirely and getting it, and reigning people rising up.
None of these things have happened. And we want to pick the next supreme leader. He said, you know, gollyboth the speaker of the parliament, remember we were describing Ms. Hatt, you know, just like America's Hatt, you know, like hot option, he clearly has decided because he's been so humiliated and he's failed so miserably and was led
down a rabbit hole by BB Netanyahu that was so destructive. He's just trying to grasp this is a man Donald Trump that like 10 days ago, we did an emergency podcast because he told the world that there was a deal and that the straights were up and forever and they were going to get rid of the dust and all these things. None of that was true, and so it's hard to even, now he's clearly decided that his
narrative is going to be their leadership is so disruptive, they don't know his in charge. They're foreign ministers, the same fucking foreign minister that was meeting with Whitkoff and Jared before the war and he's been there in Russia. How is this guy saying that there was regime change when Abosarachi is literally the same guy showing up representing the same regime with the Supreme Leader's son and then they
strike dunk on how hurt he is, well he's the fucking Supreme Leader and he's 30 years younger than his father was and then the IRGC's calling the shots and even little Marco has to acknowledge that they're running the straights for moves. So we need to just create some space to just, this is not sane, this is failing, right? Now let's move on, like what happens now?
I think you're right. This is hurting everybody at this point, like it's hurting the United States, like it is hurting our economy, it's hurting the Iranian people, it's hurting the global, everybody wants out of this war and the question is who is just going to decide that they can spin, like Iran won this war, like the IRGC, like the status quo anti, now controls
the straight to harm moves and if the big concession there to make them the war is opening up an international waterway that was open before the war, like I think that they take that position, Donald Trump is just trying to figure out how to spin his way out of it, that it's a win, even if he doesn't get them to make a whole bunch of concessions of the negotiating table.
And if you look at Putin, he can smell that this is a humiliation of the United States. He's trying to insert himself into this, he's trying to kind of play the role of peacemaker, Trump is the crazy man who starts wars now.
Do you see that the Russian, some Russian super yacht worth like a half a billion dollars
just kind of cruise through the straight or her moves this week?
Yeah, yes, yes, yes.
Yeah. No, IRGC left it alone. Yeah. Putin's flexing.
This is Putin in cheer, looking at this and they're like, this is going to have geopolitical reverberation
for a generation, the Gulf countries are splitting apart and hedging and going to move in the direction of Russian. China, the Iranians, like their, you know, they're close to stalling the region. Now controls the straight, that's a, you know, the Russian China want that what a way open.
βSo like I think they're probably telling your lines like, hey, can we wrap this thing up?β
But at the same time, they're going to be thinking about how kind of we take advantage of the fact that the United States was just revealed to be incapable of collapsing the Iranian regime with military power. Yeah. When you're opponent shoots himself on the foot, it's a good time for a road race.
Yeah. So the Axios, a couple of like data points that back up what you were just saying, Axios has a report out this week that Trump aids are concerned.
He's getting drawn into a frozen conflict where the US will just be forced to keep a ton
of military assets in the Middle East to enforce this blockade while the straight-of-form moves stays closed for months and harms the global economy. Yeah. Yeah, guys. Yeah, that's what's happening.
Reuters had a report that the US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond to Trump just declared a electoral victory. I think what's going to happen. Definitely what's going to happen.
βAnd I think they want to know if like these guys will kind of walk away and let it be.β
Or if they're going to dunk all over, I guess we'll find out. Meanwhile, I mean, the economic cost is going up. So gas prices on Tuesday in the US rose to their highest level in four years. So the average gallon is now four, 18. But outside the US, as we've talked about many times, the economic impact is massive.
So some data points in China car sales are down. The cost of plastics are up because they are petroleum based and that is led to factory shutting down. People are out of work. There's been riots.
According to the Financial Times, the IMF forecasts that the economies of Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar will contract this year, the latter by up to 8.6%. While growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will slow, but remain in about 3%. The US might have to provide the UAE with the currency swapplying to help them bail out of some financial difficulties.
There's cooking oil shortages in India, interest rates are going up around the globe. The world's largest condom maker is increasing prices by 30%. Because it's supply chain issues. And then today, Ben, the UAE announced it would be leaving OPEC, the oil cartel.
So the UAE is the third largest producer in OPEC that's going to leave OPEC with 13%.
Less capacity.
βI think this is probably less of an economic impact than just another sign of the UAEβ
in Saudi Arabia splitting out about just stuff and the reshuffling of alliances that you are just hinting at, but what do you make of that move from the Emirates? So I think the global economic fallout is going to be profound and long-lasting and is going to lead to this continued hedging the countries you're doing. How can I protect myself against the United States?
First was tariffs and now it's a swore. How can I supply chains or to more secure and not vulnerable to some crazy thing Donald Trump might do? And so that every country's going to make their own calculation. Now the UAE one is really interesting.
So OPEC has generally been this cartel of major oil producers that produces about a quarter of the world's fossil fuel energy and the Saudis have generally called the shots and the Saudis like to keep prices high because it keeps their coffers filled. The UAE has a more diversified economy and therefore they care less about necessarily like keeping the prices at a certain point.
They want to produce more. They would like to expand in more markets. They want to get the most out of, by the way, oil while they can because they see the writing on the wall down the line, it's going to be a clean energy economy. So they have some short-term interests in having some freedom of action.
But the main thing I think that's happening here is that the Emirates, like the leader of the UAE is Muhammad bin Zayed, he used to be super tight with MBS Muhammad Salman. They've had a massive falling out that we've talked about in the last couple of years. It's manifested in almost the two militaries that went to war together in Yemen, fighting each other in Yemen.
They're backing different sides of the Sudan civil war. The Emirates are kind of all in with the Abram Accords and the Israelis and much more hawkish on Iran. The Saudis, no fans of the Iranians, but I've been a little bit ahead for the head. And so I see this as a personal flop between MBS and MBC that is fascinating.
If anybody could ever make the Netflix show about those guys falling out on one of that. But it's also this geopolitical splitting. The Gulf States tried to project this unified front through the Gulf Cooperation Council of the GCC and that's Qatar UAE Saudi Kuwait, Bahrain. They're now moving in different directions.
And again, it mirrors what's going to happen globally where every nation is just going to increasingly in this kind of crazy, dangerous, nationalist transactional world, kind of look out for itself. The Emirates want to produce more sell without having to like check it through OPEC. The Saudis are trying to kind of keep prices up to fund MBS's vision 2030s of these things.
Yeah.
And it's an emblematic of an unraveling set of global arrangements.
βAnd I think that the Iran war will be seen from history as a massive accelerant onβ
unraveling all these different institutions in ways of doing things. And part of that unraveling are institutions or the belief from other countries that the U.S. can or will protect them. And now there's increasing data about concern that the U.S. can't protect itself because of these munitions shortages we've talked about in the wake of these repeated conflicts
with Iran. So there's some more data on this, the Center for Strategic and International Studies or CSIS, they released a report that walked through some numbers, then there was some great reporting. It was first Alex Ward at the Wall Street Journal in the New York Times, added to it.
The major concern is not that we're going to run out of bullets in this war. It's about the next war, especially if there's one with China. For example, let's start with Tom Hock missiles or Tlam, these are precision, long-range cruise missiles. Usually get fired from ships or submarines that could be as far as 1,500 miles away from
the target. The U.S. launched at least a thousand of them against Iran, which is about 10 times
the number of the Pentagon buys every year for the low-low price of $3.6 million each.
It'll take years to replace them at current rates, but also then they require rare earth elements and other like advanced electronic components that China has proven they can choke off. And in previous war games about a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, they found that the U.S. exhausted supply of Tom Hock missiles in a couple days or weeks.
So with a supply already down, that's not good. There is a similar missile, a missile used in similar use cases called the Joint Air to surface standoff missile, the U.S. is used 23 percent of that stockpile, these are fired from planes, but they cost again $2.6 million each. We fired about 1,000 attack missiles in this war, remember there was a hot debate over
whether the U.S. should give you Ukraine attack missiles. So those are offensive weapons, and then to get we're running out of interceptor missiles from missile defense systems, that includes a third of what are called SM-6 interceptors,
nearly half of the SM-3 variant, more than 50 percent of Patriot interceptors, and 80 percent
of that interceptors. That's a lot of jargon in gibberish, just know that the price is on the bad boys range from $4 million to $28 million a pop, depending on the missile and the variant. All together, some U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal, that hold the replacing those stockpiles could take up to six years, so that's a long-term problem that will take
a while to fix, and that is apparently one of the things worrying JD events, who once again dispatched his minions to the Atlantic, to tell them Jacob Reese is concerned, yes, some fucker, about the war from the stockpiles, the accuracy of information Trump is getting from Pete Hegseth, and the Pentagon, again, that I'm just blown away by how brazen these
βleaks are like, how is this not pissing Trump off, but what do I know?β
It just shows you that for all the facade of Trump's ingenious and we blew up the Iranian Navy or whatever, they know that this war has been a disaster, because the degree of asked covering here through leak is, even by Washington standards, it makes you blush a little bit. I think when you look at costs, like I just focus on the practical, literal costs, and
then the geopolitical costs, on the practical costs, these numbers are billions and billions of dollars, like that is ACA subsidies that are not going, you know, that's real health care that people need, those are, that's nutrition assistance, that's like God forbid we ever do get our shit together for like a universal basic income, like we just spent billions of dollars and are going to have to spend another round of billions
of dollars for a place things that don't Trump and Pete Hegseth could fire off in a six week excursion, right, is now what Trump called it, to do to do nothing other than to compensate. Close the straight of four moves so that you can then try to reopen it again into a clear victory and yeah, we blew up a bunch of Iranian things and we killed an 86
year old supreme leader, like the amount we spent is like more than what was once the annual
βbudget of USAID, which did tons of dollars, which we heard there was so wasteful, right?β
Yeah, that's really good analogy, then I just want to like hone in on the geopolitical costs, because it ties in what I was saying about countries having to make different decisions, what you'll often hear from the national security types, you know, people, you know, I like hung out with a lot of the years, that all these munitions, all these systems are really important, you know, in Asia, right, to deal with China and North Korea, and sometimes
people hear that and they think, oh, you wore mongers, like you went all these weapons to fight the Chinese, no, they're there as a deterrent, like you went those weapons in place to to prevent a war, you know, so it's like, hey, this looks super scary if you're China and you're thinking about invading Taiwan or you're Kim Jong-un and you're thinking about making move on South Korea, like the Americans have all these fancy systems,
we don't want to fuck around that. Let's just take the one case of South Korea. South Korea is getting hit about as hard as anybody because of shortages, right? They've shortages of petrochemicals, they've shortages of plastics, they're potential disruptions,
To all manner of different industries from this war, like they're suffering e...
never mind, a higher fuel prices.
βMeanwhile, the country that was there, you know, closest ally to the United States alsoβ
moved the missile defense systems, they were protecting them from potential North Korean nuclear attacks. Yeah, we moved that to the Middle East because we needed that for our Ron War. We moved these other munitions. So we simultaneously left them more vulnerable to the nut case, like chain smoking, uh,
autocrat that lives to their north or to the Chinese and ruin their economy in the process. If you're South Korea, aren't you going to start making some other decisions about maybe you need to cut your own deal with the Chinese or the North Koreans? If you're Taiwan, how are you feeling about, you know, the American security umbrella protecting against the Chinese invasion?
So this, this stuff is going to reverberate for years and, and Trump can spin and J.D. Vance can leak, it can't change that. Also, when the U.S. put that that system in South Korea in the first place, the Chinese
flipped out and they did all this around the country.
They essentially banned Chinese tourists from going to South Korea and like crushed the tourism in the entire country. So yeah, they, they got screwed on the front end and they're screwed on the back end here. One other just dumb thing then.
βDo you remember that guy Palo is in Poli who we talked about a couple of weeks ago?β
Yeah. It's like the old 80s buddy, the Trump would like hang out with it 54 or whatever, like some model. They used, I said, deport his wife or ex-wife mother of his child, good guy, great guy. Apparently, he has been recommending that FIFA kick around out of the World Cup and put
Italy in. I saw that guy, because FIFA needed to be further corrupted and politicized and even the Italians were like, no, this is completely stupid. What do you talk about? Well, first of all, the Italians flaming out of the World Cup, I mean, the Italians himself
said, we don't want to like get in the way, but, but also like what, I hate that like FIFA's already debased itself so much. They gave Trump that fake peace prize, remember. That corrupt guy who runs FIFA, did you see this? Did he like demand? Did he want it a motorcade in Vancouver as if there was analogous to the property in
fantasy noted? Yeah, he got, he threw a hissy fit because the Canadians wouldn't give them a full motorcade on scale of like the price United States to the Oprah or something. Anyway, great, great. Part of what I find so disgusting about this is like, can't sports be like the last
refugees go away, like just like, like, you start politicizing sports this way, where
it's like, and not that it's always been pure.
It's not. You did a whole podcast on how corrupt the World Cup is. But the idea that you're literally going to say like, hey, we don't like the Iranians because Trump decided to go to war with them. So we're kicking them out of the World Cup and, you know, every like sea Italian, so
what's put them in there, even though they flamed out in the European division, come on man, like, let's sort of roll up like they're ringing, even if you hate the Iranian regime, like the soccer players didn't have any to do it. So they earned their way on that stage. That news bears man, let them play.
Let them play. Finally, Ben, on paper, there's still a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. But in practice, it's not really a ceasefire. It's more like a deoscalation of the fighting that is still very much ongoing, just a lower intensity.
For example, the Lebanese government said 14 people were killed in Israeli attacks on Sunday alone, and Israeli soldier was announced that he was killed on Sunday, two more were wounded on Monday. And the IDF is ordered a bunch more communities to evacuate, including one's outside of the current evacuation zone to the war seems to be expanding.
The leader of Hezbollah said they would not quote relinquish its weapons or defenses, meaning they won't disarm. Listeners also might have heard about the killing of a woman named Amal Khalil. She's a well-known journalist for the Lebanese newspaper, Al-Lakhbar. He was driving with a photojournalist colleague in southern Lebanon.
The car in front of them got hit by an Israeli strike, so they took shelter in a nearby building. They were wounded. And they tried to get help. But an hour and a half later, the building they were in was struck again when the red cross
tried to help her and her colleague, the IDF, fired on them and they were forced to turn back. So Khalil is also a reported receiving a death threat that she attributed to the IDF back in 2024.
βSo this is just like, this is one of those incidents that would have been, I think, a globalβ
scandal before the war in Gaza, but now it almost feels priced in because he has really killed so many Gaza-based journalists that people are almost numb to it. Yeah, I mean, I spent some time with this one because it was so egregious, I mean, she's a well-known journalist and, and she's trapped under rubble for hours and these rallies are literally like striking the rescuers trying to get her, I mean, this is like an assassination.
Like, they know who she is, like, they have such total surveillance control over that part of Lebanon. They know exactly who she is. She's obviously also wearing press. They murdered this woman in front of the whole world and don't expect any significant
Outcry beyond people who are already upset about these things.
And that's outrageous, you know?
And it does.
βI just, I do wish like, there's like a very admirable instinct among the US journalists to advocateβ
for journalists and danger around the world, but it's usually journalists and dangerned inside of geopolitical adversaries in the United States, you know, advocating for evidence of journalists or any journalists or Russian journalists or certainly any American journalists. But like, these people are doing the same job as you. And yet you just, like, I, and I'm not, some journalists have been outspoken about these things.
I'd love, I'd just like to see like more voices raised because this is, like, this is what this is the worst case scenario, you can't talk about political violence. I mean, this is literally saying that like, because I, some people I saw then say, well, she worked for like a newspaper, media outlet, that was high that was that was sympathetic to Hezbollah.
It's so hard. It's a fucking journalists, like, I don't know. I don't like this Israeli newspaper is tied to like the idea of like, you can't kill people. Yeah, I don't like Fox news.
I don't think anything, like, bad should happen to people, like, like, this is, that's actually the most deranged possible explanation. I agree. Like, so we just now assassinate journalists. I think we've killed.
Yeah. Yeah. It's like, what are we talking about? Yeah. That was a horrible, horrible story.
Remind me of Shreen Abouakla, another famous Palestinian American journalist who was killed during the Biden administration. Yeah. And no one did shit about it. And it pisses me off to this day.
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So the Iran tensions we just talked about, those are the backdrop and the mood music for King Charles's Ford visits to the US. The visit is technically part of the America's 250th birthday celebrations. He is no party is complete without an aging monarch. Charles and Camilla visit is a thrill a minute.
They attended a garden party. They looked at a B-hive, then there's a quote, "literary event marking the 100th birthday of the children's character, Winnie the Pooh." Really? Yeah.
How about that? No word, it's going to be with Prince Harry or victims of Jeffrey Epstein's abuse. A lot of calls on Charles and meet with some Epstein victims and talk about his brother, maybe, but anyway. So this all comes, though, as we've discussed, Prime Minister Kierstarmer is under attack
from Trump on a daily basis for not fully backing or participating in the war with Iran.
Recently there was a report about retaliation, there was a leaked memo, Penta...
was floated, punited, but it talks about punishing the UK and the refusal to further participate
in the war by revoking US support for their possession of the Falkland Islands. It's just very '80s response there. This is also kicked up endless hand-wringing and discussion of the special relationship between the US and the UK. The financial times reported that the UK's ambassador to the US told some students recently
βquote, "I think there is probably one country that has a special relationship with the Unitedβ
States, and that is probably Israel." Very accurate. He's not wrong. Oh, Charles also became the first British king to address a joint session of Congress, his mom McQueen did so in 1991, but Trump laid out the distinction in his remarks.
Here is some of what he said.
With the spirit of 1776 in our minds, we can perhaps agree that we do not always agree.
As my Prime Minister said last month, ours is an indispensable partnership. We must not disregard everything that has sustained us for the last 80 years, instead we must build on it. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time, and the United Nations Security Council was united in the face of terror that same unyielding resolve is needed for the defence of Ukraine and her most courageous people from the depths of the Atlantic
to the disastrously melting ice caps of the Arctic. The commitment and expertise of the United States are on forces, and its allies lie at the heart of NATO. I pray with all my heart that our alliance will continue to defend our shared values, and that we ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.
America's words carry weight and meaning as they have since independence. The actions of this great nation maps it even more. So as you can hear there, Charles didn't totally shy away from policy differences on climate
βchange or NATO or Ukraine, and for context, I think it probably sometimes seems to Americansβ
like the royals are distinct from the government or kind of float above it. In practice, that's not the case. It's like a royal visit like this is planned by No. 10 Downing Street. His speech is thoroughly vetted, it's not written by the government. This functionally indistinguishable from Prime Minister's visit, they just know that Trump
loves the royal family, and cares more about them, and hopefully won't be as much of a dick. So that gets you to me to my question, Ben. I guess I'm still, obviously, the shooting attempt thing on Saturday that kind of changes the vibes around all this stuff, and you're walking on eggshells for a while.
A couple of weeks. But again, I don't get why Starmer's Office sent King Charles in the midst of this war when Trump's calling Starmer, Neville Chamberlain every day, saying he's no Winston Churchill, just like humiliating the guy left. Right.
When we all know that, I don't know, maybe a snub would be just some actual fallout on policy, but like failing to push back on Trump is hurting Starmer politically, and he just looks so weak and hapless, and I'm wondering when his labor going to cut the court on this guy. It is a fucking disaster.
It is destroying the labor party. It really is. The reason Trump keeps coming back is because he smells weakness. Like this is the most obvious thing in the world to see. Kira Starmer presents, as the weakest guy, he presents a scared of Trump, even when he stands
up to Trump, he seems scared about doing it. It's a kind of hard at all, ways. Yeah. Why, you know, King Charles is here as part of like the Starmer plan to charm Trump. Like it's, they're literally threatening to like try to give the fallen islands to their
buddy, have your meal, I doubt, in Argentina, like they've so little respect, and the less in time and again, is like Trump will respect you more if you punch him in the face. You know, then if you are continually scared of him, he's just going to keep coming back.
βI think the sad thing about that speech is every clip that we played is absolute babbling.β
We've heard this for, you know, our whole lives in politics eight years and NATO is important. They sound downright edgy, you know, the fact that it sounds edgy that King Charles is like, and we should turn inward and let's cooperate and NATO is important and we support the
brave people of Ukraine, like, like basically the most anodine things that you'd expect
from your liberal friend online, like sound like King Charles is picking fights, you know, and that's a, that's so if Starmer's fault is as weakness, that speech is a good capsule
Of how much down Trump is reorder the world than a year and a half because we...
the United States is not for any of those things, we're not for NATO, we're not for 80 years
of cooperation, we're not for, like, looking outward, we're not for agreeing to disagree about things like that's crazy, that we're so extreme that he's like, he's like talking to
βyou like his completely alcoholic family member and saying, like, remember how much fun we usedβ
to have taking walks together. We're for drinking after five. We're for an up being drunk at breakfast. Yeah, that's a really good point. I previewed some sexual tension at the top, so Trump did this event, they like welcomed Charles to the White House and he gave a little speech and Trump said something like, like, we talked about his mother and how she would say, look at Charles, he's so cute, my mother had a crush on Charles, Charles is 77, Trump is 79.
Well, I would say also though they'd love to see, Charles up there, you know, he looked so
young compared to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I mean, it's good to have a young vigorous man up there. Young sausage finger gentlemen, Trump also couldn't help with doing like a Churchill bus shout out, there was a funny thing. Because he's so online, it's like, if you get the reference, you're too online. You're way too online. Speaking of state visits been a cricket con is back and bigger than ever, get your calendar out. Positive, positive podcast, pencil in
a trip to DC, November 5th through 7th, bigger stages, more panels, bigger stage, hotter speakers, maybe even King Charles, probably not though. There'll also be live taping of shows, you know, I love a lot more go to crookedcon.com to sign up for updates. Really fun, we had fun last time. Actually, I really like cricket. I'm great to be at a good as time. We did a fun panel. Okay, let's talk about the security situation in Molly. So over the last several years, we have
covered this wave of coos across northern Africa, especially this is a hell region started in Molly in 2020, and Guinea in 2021. It's a little side of the sale, but you get my point for Kina Faso in 2022, the Nigerian Gabon in 2023. These were distinct events across a large geographic area, but there were some common threats. Like anger at corruption, weaken in effective governance, anger at foreign military presences, especially the French and the French threat from his
longest extremist groups. And as its process went on, with a little Wagner group sprinkle, yeah, well, there's one on the French and the U.S. Security Forces. We got pushed out of the region. The Russians came in. At the time, it was the Wagner mercenary group. They got renamed after their their boss had a little aerial actions. It's a crazy thing that happened when Pregosan tried to have a coup against Putin, March to Moscow, and then, mysterious bodies going to get away with it.
Then what funny, a grenade went off in his airplane. That's a crazy last year's been in his wilds. Then they named the Wagner group, they called it the Africa Corpse, which is what it's called now. So in 2024, the military leaders in Mali, Rikina Faso, Niger, they pulled that out of Ekowas,
βthe regional alliance, they formed their own little alliance. And I think then, it's fair to sayβ
that the U.S. French approach that predated all of this was a disaster. Terrorism in this house was getting worse and not better. The security extremist situation was getting worse and not better. But things now in Mali are really, really bad. So over the weekends, and I'll kind of look at extremist group called JNIM. They launched this coordinated series of attacks across Mali, including the capital of Bhamico. They attacked the president's house. They attacked and
killed the defense minister. They were militant. It's like videos of these militants just driving around big parts of the capital with no real opposition. And these JNIM fighters also attacked the Russian troops, the Africa Corpse troops, who have proven over time to be worse than useless partners against counterterrorism partner. And in fact, probably help fuel the insurgency by just killing lots of civilians. In the past few days, the Russians, they got pushed out of some
βkey parts of Northern Mali that they'd helped retake back the day. So it's a total humiliation.β
So this is very bad. This group, JNIM, they were established in 2017. It's considered an al-Qaeda affiliate. But in this case, they also coordinated with the separatist group representing the Toreg ethnic minority, the traditionally nomadic group. They got screwed at a political representation by French colonial lines because they got divided up and they had no one. No political
representation. So they have been basically waging an insurgency ever since. It got all got
way worse again. And Momer Gaddafi used to hire these Toreg fighters. And Olivia collapsed to many of them returned to Mali in Ejair with their Libyan weapons and supercharged that insurgency. So another reason why that adventure was Obama years was disaster too. So Ben, I guess the question is, like, you see these images on TV, they look scary, it's horrible for the people living there, especially with an in girls. I wonder how much of a threat it poses to the U.S., whether JNIM
is just focused regionally, whether we should worry about them being more expansive, like al-Qaeda, and whether there's anything the U.S. should be doing about it. I mean, yeah, first of all, I do think that Mali was a place where around in the aftermath of Libya and part and also
Just in part because of some extreme settlements, like around 2012, 2013, thi...
hairy there. And there was a French intervention, literally French special forces went in,
they kind of pushed out these Jihadist groups, they kind of formed the kind of backbone of propping up a government there. And then there's kind of this model where the U.S. had some counterterrorism, capabilities, we had the drones and intelligence gathering and probably a light footprint of some special forces in that region. And then the French were kind of the bigger footprint training, security forces, things like that. Clube it in work. It was a little too self-interested, created,
it's own forms of corruption. And you described, well, the dead end, I'm sure that there's some nexus to some people with wider ambitions beyond this part of Africa. But at the end of the
βday, I think one of the things we've learned about these countries is like these are at the end ofβ
the day inherently like local dynamics, you know that there are militias, some of them are more
extremist, some like buy into like an Islamist ideology that is like repressive. But I think part of what has kind of contributed to the factors that have you know made this region more radicalized in violent is seeing every group of armed guys in land cruisers as like ISIS, you know, core or Osama bin Laden. What is needed are strategies and approaches that fit these countries and deal with their politics. And I don't claim, I'd say it's a tremendous amount of humility,
I don't claim to know the exact formula to bring to Mali. I don't think it helps and this I look, I could be proven wrong, maybe this will become the next iteration of ISIS. I just don't
think that's right, though. I think these countries have internal dynamics and any different solutions
rather than being seen as like a front in a global war in terror. Certainly as an help to just have the only security relationship between the US and these countries to be like intelligent and sharing or selling them weapons. And I know I'm back to offer solution that is not
βcurrently available, but I think that it also didn't make sense for the former colonial powerβ
to be the one that comes in because that feels an awful lot like colonialism in Mali, right? This is why you need a united nations. This is why you need credible international institutions that can do like retro 1990s, error missions like multinational peacekeeping and conflict resolution and negotiation. Like this is a proving kit. And by the way, it'd be good if the African Union did some that which they don't because they don't really function either. And so
I think what's really neat is multi-lateral systems and institutions. And until then, not great. Yeah, so then I think it's going to be this kind of game of thrones. Yeah, pretty bad. Positive world is brought to you by or a frame or a frame is the perfect mother's day gift to capture the chaos you put her through and the memories that came with it. Also, I just want to
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they know we sent you. All right, I want to update you on corruption and the administration. So last week we did a big section on this. The ramping corruption within the Trump administration and how it's hurting US national security. I wanted to follow up because there were some examples that were so egregious and absurd that it was worth highlighting again. So first, Ben,
βthis is just a quick clip of Fox businesses, Maria Bartaromo, congratulating Eric Trumpβ
after his company was awarded a $24 million contract from the Pentagon. Let's watch.
And the company's chief strategy advisor, Eric Trump, President Trump's son. Congratulations to you both. Thank you so much for being here. So Eric Trump is like really like the chief advisor to a robotics company. And she's like, oh, that's totally normal. So thank you Maria for that that heart-hitting journalism. And then also Ben, we had discussed previously how seven anonymous person had made more than $400,000 by betting on Pauli Market that Ben
as well and leader Nicholas Maduro would be deposed. Sure enough, it happens that guy cashes out. It turns out that the individual involved was a master sergeant with the US Army special forces who participated in the operation itself. He apparently was also not the but brightest bulb on the tree since this guy transferred the money to Pauli Market and back via his own Coinbase account, which is the US-based crypto company that verifies your identity. So you're going to get nailed
there, but not hard to track that one. So that said Ben, I am going to place a bet on Pauli Market that that guy gets pardoned after watching these comments from Trump. Are you concerned that federal employees are betting on these prediction markets in potentially getting rich? Well, I don't know about it, but was he betting that they would get him or they wouldn't get him? It sounds like he was betting on his removal from office. That's like Pedro's betting on his own team. It's a little like
Pedro's because he kept him out of the hall of fame because he bettered his own team. Now if he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bettered his own team. I'll look into it. So the indifference-- Still 80s man, but he really does. The indifference there could be also because the Dalton Jr. is an advisor to both Pauli Market and his number one competitor, Kalshi. So good stuff. Both of these things speak to a tip of an iceberg of corruption, right? And we get into
this in the anti-authoritarian toolkit that need to spot like corruption, but also to explain it. So the the Eric Trump thing, there is a degree of corruption happening with the Pentagon budget that we have no idea-- $1.5 trillion. If the Democrats get controls at Congress, I would burrow in here because they want a $1.5 trillion defense budget. You got Eric Trump suddenly getting in the drone game and getting contracts from the federal government that his father controls.
And it's father's circumvented, you know, Pete Hexeth is like in charge of this Department of War. But it's not just that. All these tech guys like who suck up the Trump, you know, Alex Carp, they had a palentier, like all these defense tech guys, you know, probably with Peter Teele investments and stuff. Like they're just feeding at the trough. And they're just-- the stuff
they're throwing, you know, Eric Trump's ways, a ton of money to view in me, a few hundred million
dollars here, billion dollars there. These guys are probably walking away with tens of billions dollars. So we got to look at the defense budget. And then on the Pauli Market stuff, this is like, you know, it reminds me of like Abu Gray, where, you know, like this guy's guilty is hell, but they're going to punish the service member. But how many people were making bets on Pauli Market do you think, you know, it's a-- or how many people are shorting oil markets
before Trump posts something, right? I hope to God that there is some investigation by the SEC or some New York State authority on the stock market manipulation, the oil market manipulation, because otherwise what's the point of having these agencies? Well, and do you know, I don't even know
βthe answers. Why is an every Democrat like campaigning to shut down all these prediction markets?β
I don't know. Are they? I mean, I think some are. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I think some are. I don't know. I'm saying I've not talking to everybody's platform. I think it's not a criticism. I'm not a criticism. Every single Democrat should be for saying, you cannot find a more acute manifestation of corruption than the people that controlling the government have the capacity to bet on their own actions on a prediction market. And most of the
Actual business on these platforms is just an end run against state bands on ...
I do not support it. Finally, Ben, let's let's turn to Mexico. So
βbecause U.S. involvement there in a counter cartel operations, they've created this hugeβ
headache for Mexican President Claudia Sheenbaum. The story is starts on April 19, so the two Americans and two Mexican investigators were killed after their car reportedly plunged off a cliff. I don't really, it's hard, like, I feel like there's more to like, right? Yeah, I mean, do they just drive off like happen? Yeah, it's like, so there's so much we don't know, but they were returning from a drug bust operation on a meth lab in the mountains of northern Mexico in the state of Chihuahua. So it has since been confirmed by some
U.S. officials who spoke to the AP among other news outlets that they were CIA officers. This created big political and legal and foreign policy problems for Claudia Sheenbaum. Under Mexico's constitution, foreign governments cannot conduct law enforcement or intelligence operations on Mexican soil. It's very sensitive, at least not in independently. They need to be with the government or registered. It's a very sensitive sovereignty issue. It date fragment yet. Many decades there have been
all these terrible incidents. And this became an intense focus under President Lopez Obrador, who will couple years back like 21 or 2020 past legislation for the restricting foreign law enforcement intelligence agents in Mexico. So again, fast forward to when this story broke earlier this month. Sheenbaum initially says that she was not aware that American officials were participating in the
operation. She's basically held to that story so far. She's like asked the U.S. for a more
detail or clarification, but mostly blamed officials in Chihuahua and threatened to reprimand them. It's helped that the governor there is from the opposition party. So Ben, I'm trying to like, again, trying to figure out how to read this. Did the U.S. really not tell the Mexican federal government about this operation or registered these individuals? We don't know. Was this like a don't ask, don't tell situation where the U.S. is doing a lot of stuff. Sheenbaum gets told some
general strokes, but not all of it for deniability on the specifics. Like big picture, it's like definitely an example of how she is trying to balance between nationalism and sovereignty and then all the things Trump is demanding because as we've talked about before, Trump is threatened to
conduct airstrikes on cartels in Mexico on Mexican territory. There's reports that the CIA has been
flying surveillance drones over Mexican territory. God knows what else the CIA and the D.A. are doing in Mexico that we don't know about. And so Sheenbaum is trying to fend off these crazy ideas while like not getting tariff to hell. What do you make of this story and how like to read between
βthe line? I thought it was really important. I mean, the suggestion out of the fact pattern that we seeβ
is that there were two CIA agents that were down in this state in Chuala. And they were not there under the approval of the Mexican federal government that maybe they've made some side deals with local officials or this governor. And they were in some operation and then something went wrong. And I do wonder how the car plunge off a cliff. And by the way, a reason for that could be that the U.S. thinks that the federal officials are corrupt in the state officials. So we can't tell you up and up. So we go around
them like I don't know. Yeah, it could be that they think that if we tell the federal officials they'll tip off the cartels or just faster to deal with it. Or it's kind of like how we deal with, I don't know, hypothetically like Pakistan, you know, it's just rough out there and we're just not going to have to do what we have to do and we'll well, we'll let them know generically. We're doing stuff over here in your tribal regions, but you know, we're not going to tell you about what we're doing.
βNow, here's why I think this is important. If there are these two CIA guys doing this,β
that tells me that this is happening, this is not the only place that they're probably CIA. That's my assumption too. And so it suggests to me that we have moved the war on terror paradigm into Mexico where you've got on the ground, CIA presence. Some of that is partnered with local security forces. Some of that may be freelance, some that may be coordinated with the government, but that there's a kind of much more active confrontation with drug cartels.
Now people may say, well, that's good. We're fighting drug cartels. The war on drugs, paradigm, and the war on terror paradigm, not that them worked. And so fusing them is a little disturbing to me. And I feel like I saw this and I thought, you know, and I think these are producer Alona before we recorded like we've like Mexico dropped off the war list. You know, it's like, well, Cuba, Greenland, this kind of reminder like this, I think Mexico is going to
come up more. And this question of what are we doing? Are there COVID operations happening? Are there CIA operations? Could that lead to military action against the cartels directly? And then related to that, what does this mean for Claudia Shamebaum? Because she does not want to have
That happen.
one way to do that is to look the other way and just kind of, you know, not pay attention to what the US government may be doing. But this episode makes that kind of untenable for her, because she doesn't want to look feckless, right? And not in charge. And so it's going to create potential, you know, difficulties for her to manage through too. This is one of the stories you put a pen in and say, I have a feeling we're going to be talking more about Mexico. I have
feeling that there's more happening Mexico than we're seeing. Yeah. And like so far, she's given Trump a lot of concessions like she expedited a bunch of drug leaders for prosecution. She put
βnational guard troops on the border. I think she slapped a big tariff on the Chinese to be inβ
line with US tariffs. She cut off oil ship into Cuba. So like, she's given Trump a lot of what he wants. But even when there have been major cartel operations like the takedown of the guy El Mencho that we talked about a while back, Trump's reaction wasn't to praise them necessarily. It was like he got mad at the images of violence and chaos that were on TV afterwards and started demanding that the Mexican authorities do more. So she's like just in this squeeze. And, you know,
there's an interesting piece. I think there's a Wall Street Journal had a great profile on her in this moment. And like all that she's doing to manage this guy talked about how she is a security meeting at 6 a.m. every day. Then she does this 7.30 a.m. press conference every day. And then just like works into the night. Like she's like just grinding. And it's getting pressured by Trump, but also getting pressured by President Lopez Obrador for like political
benefactor, mentor, who was, you know, on paper, left the scene is writing a book. But he's
βpressuring her to break with Trump, to cut deals with China, to cut deals with Canada, demandingβ
more nationalism. And she's like met with Trump once, but had nearly 20 phone calls with the guy. So there's clearly all this behind the scenes, like management happening. And a relationship that
actually seems genuinely cordial, but, you know, as you know, a Trump like you're always one
comment away from the thing being offended. Yeah, no, I, she's just trying to manage to it. And she's been firm with Trump when she needs to be. I like Cloudy Shamed Mammolot. And by the way, I'm low, you know, Lopez Obrador, her predecessor, kind of rich for him because he was pretty chummy, chummy with Trump, too. Like he was like Mr. fellow populist. I'm just a leftist populist. So, but I get it, like he's reflecting the kind of left-wing nationalism that you would
expect from that political party, Mexico. I, I, I should just say the problem is that this strategy won't work. Like the drug cartels are deeply entrenched. Trump's not going to defeat them in two and a half years with some CIA operations. Like, like, and people want to
βwhat to do. I mean, Ricardo Zunig has been on with both of us to talk about this. I mean,β
a strategy that far more aggressively just kind of goes after all their money sources. Like, they depend on global financial networks. They have sprawling business and empires that go beyond Mexico. They control ports, you know, into parts of the world. Like, there are other ways to try to shrink the cartels. By the way, you could legalize drugs. In this country, to kind of take away the revenue that goes that way. I personally favor that.
But like, you're not, this isn't going to work. Like, the idea that like some CIA operations, you mix the big country, like the drug trade is decades established. Like, it employs tens of thousands of people. Like, you're, you're not going to beat them with like CIA operations after it's CIA operations. Just killing off leaders. Like, the king pin strategies don't seem to work. They create chaos. They create, look at this to hell. But we just still
build it. Yeah. We killed a lot of terrorists there. You know, kind of number three down again.
Yeah, it doesn't always work. All right. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back,
you're going to your Ben's interview about how to fight authoritarianism. We got a playbook for you. Just stick around for that. Pazi, the world is brought to you by supremacy, world war three. So supremacy, world war three is a free to play grand strategy game that drops you into the heart of a modern global conflict. Well, today's headlines might feel overwhelming. This game puts the
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Okay, I'm very pleased to be joined by two friends of mine, Federica Vinci, a program coordinator and Nick Antipav is a project associate for Democracy Hub, a group that works to counter authoritarianism. They have created an anti-authoritarian toolkit, which is going to be a resource that activists and political leaders can use to defend against
and ultimately overcome autocracies. So we're here to talk about the release of that project
that I've had some inner face with over the years. Just a couple of brief notes about you guys, Federica is also a board member for the Vault There Foundation. She worked on campaigns. She's increased women's participation in politics. Nick is a co-founder of Makeout, a project on gender-sexuality and anti-discrimination in Belarus, that empowers the LGBTQ community there. There's also been an activist against the authoritarianism in Belarus. And I met you both because
you were both also Obama Foundation, Europe leaders. So Nick, and Feder, thanks for joining me today. Thank you, Ben. Thank you so much, Ben. So before we get into the toolkit, I do want to just kind of introduce people a bit to your journeys. And I guess I'll start with you, Feder. Talk about how did you come to Dehab? You know, how did you take a journey from being kind of a politician to someone who's more in this kind of activist space?
Thanks a lot, Ben. So I still remember the moment when we challenged that authoritarianists were organizing all around the world. I was leading at Rose National Political
βparties. It still exists. It's called Vault. And I remember that at one moment,β
all different authoritarianist/fightright parties were presenting in different countries around Europe, a piece of law that forced women to listen to the heartbeat of the fetus before abortion. And I was shocked because I could see that like in they were presenting it in Hungary. And at the same time, they were presenting it to Italy. At the same time, they were presenting it in Spain and in Portugal and in France. And we on the other side, we were trying to organize a transnational political
party and we didn't even know how to make people talk, the people that didn't talk the same language. They didn't speak the same language. And I was like, there must be something here that they're doing that we are not. So while I was thinking about these questions, I was also that could you may or may hometown back then. I was doing politics at the local level. I come across Dehab, or whether better Dehab, Nikako, what's the way both know comes across me. And she talks me about
this organization that had a main aim, the objective of creating a democratic playbook. So something that people that were fighting for democracy could use and replicate exactly in the same way that our Twitterians were doing for their own autocracy. So I thought that this exactly made sense. And when she came to me and she asked me to join Dehab, I was like, look, I felt on my own skin that we needed something like this. And I was really more than happy to join this fight and
starting writing, I mean, starting producing and working with those people for the authority
βfor the authoritarian toolkit. Okay. So Nick, you had like a different experience. I think Feta,β
you described well the kind of awareness of this right wing far-right authoritarian kind of coordination. Nick, when I met you, you were dealing with a much more kind of visceral form of authoritarianism, Lukashenko, the autocratic leader of Belarus, is cracked down the opposition. You literally
had to kind of exile at first to Lithuania. Well, describe your journey from being in Belarus,
running an organization to Dehab. Yeah, thank you. My journey, yeah, my journey to the Dehab
It's a bit different, you know, born and raised and minced and under the regi...
go into schools, washed with all propaganda. Somehow I found this, I don't know, courage and some,
βI don't know, meeting in a way that something is not right. Something is that doesn't make any sense.β
And obviously, maybe it's connected with my, with my sexuality of work and queer identity, I found this idea of liberation. Inside me, liberation of my sexuality, liberation of my community, and liberation of my own country. Because back then, I didn't understand how everything is so connected and the fight for LGBTQ+ rights, it's also the fight for democracy. Now, five years later,
yeah, I lost my country, lost my ability to see my loved ones, lost my meaning basically,
you know, to influence on my community and to try to push it. And living now in Berlin, I kind of realized, especially when Trump started getting into power, people sometimes started talking about, oh my god, this is new, new world order. And then I was like, wait, wait a second, is it? Or maybe it's already after Ethereum Playbook, which already was built and actually just transformed in a new wave. So I'm kind of was happy that my journey and my
journey of like a small community also in a country, which sometimes also overlooked in the big politics, I tried to take all the lessons from all this years of democracy defenders in my region and kind of also share it with my community and community worldwide. So yeah, at the de-hub, now, we're creating this entire Ethereum toolkit, which connect all practices in some kind of kind of readable and hands-on book and not book and it's an only publication to make sure
that we have all in knowledge and all the strategy how to fight it back. So and eventually, I hope it will bring my region to democracy. So I've interacted with you guys through de-hub, and so people understand, you know, essentially you are network that works with, you know, small de-democracy activists, not just in Europe, but around the world. I mean, it's a global perspective that you're taking on this authoritarian challenge. All three of us have interacted
with in our own ways. You know, I've dealt with Trump here in the United States from perspective of politics and media. Fed, you've been a politician and activist yourself kind of feeling the rising tide of a certain kind of far-right politics in places like Italy, Nick. You had the most
first-hand experience of losing, you know, at least for the time being your country. How do you
describe the process by which you put together this anti-authoritarian toolkit? Who did you talk to in order to put it together? And I guess to begin Fed with you, can you explain, well, I want to start pulling out lessons. One that we talked about when I saw you in Costa Rica was putting broccoli in the rice. I like that you guys try to have these, you know, phrases that they're punchy and clever, but that actually speak to something important. Like how do you get
βfrom talking to a bunch of activists to a point like put broccoli in the rice?β
Thanks so much for your question. So basically, we, as you were saying, we're activists ourselves,
and we started from our own people to start understanding what was the ground. So what are we talking about when we were talking about rising at the rate high, and what was their playbook? And from people like class and to our own contact, we started to talk to talk to talk with other activists. First to understand what was the playbook of the rate high, and from this, the rate that a playbook was more. But then, we just, we didn't want just to give another
diagnosis of how the word the word was working. We really wanted to get into how do we fight them. So we started talking with activists from literally all around the world. We had case studies going from Thailand, to South Africa, to Kenya, to Argentina, talking about with them about what were the different strategies and tactics that allowed them to win possible authoritarian. Also because
βhere, I think it's important to say that we're talking about elected authoritarian. So peopleβ
that almost fairly win the elections, but then getting to power and dismantle the institutions of democracy from within. So we needed to understand first how do we do in order not to have them elected. So how do we win elections? But it was not just about election. It was about building
Movements.
with people that managed to do it successfully. A good example with this, of this, where, for example,
βour friends in Brazil, or our friends in France, where they just have been in the far rightβ
and the parliamentary elections a couple of years ago. So we started talking with these people and they gave us different strategies and tactics in order to fight back. And one of the strategies and tactics is exactly what you were talking about, which is the strategy of broccoli and the rise. So what we do here is that within our volume of the children comes, which I happen to have it here, we talk about several tactics that can fight authoritarian and may have a grand strategy.
One of the tactics, for example, is network of influencers. And when we talk about broccoli and
rise, we ask these influencers that might talk about several things like makeup or gossip. So we
ask them to put into their pages some piece and bits of political contents in order to start shaping the idea of the people that listened to them and that see them on social media in a democratic way. This is a play that authoritarianists have developed so well all around the world. An example is Buquelle. More than 1,500 YouTube or Facebook pages that talk about everything and include his politics in social media, we need to start doing the same and we grow it exactly that. How do you
do it within your own people, within your own communities to put broccoli so things that people might not generally like politics into the rise. So the nice content about makeup so that you start
changing the discourse yourself. Yeah, no, it's a really important point because after the last
election, I mean, it's why we're on a podcast. So one of the reasons I brought up this point, after the Democrats lost in 2024, there was this kind of pretty predictable freak out. Oh, Trump won, you know, by going on all these podcasts, you know, Theo Vaughan and Joe Rogan and people like that in the United States and the Democrats are like, maybe we have to go on the
βpodcast too. And I think what they missed is, Joe Rogan is a comedian and a UFC commentator, right?β
He's not, he didn't start in politics like he started with the rise, the thing that people were attracted to was his kind of curiosity and his background and, you know, he's funny, they think or whatever. And then, you know, that gives him more credibility in some ways, you know, politics is downstream from cultures. You would say to the, when he has a political conversation, he's built up a credibility with the audience. And I think that's an important
message for us. Now, this is a, you know, one of many, you know, lessons you haven't embedded, Nick, I want to ask you though, to this question of messaging, you know, one of the things that Trump and other author, authoritarians have done is they kind of talk about a corrupt system and then they themselves are phenomenally corrupt. You know, and we've seen corruption become, you know, a tool that has worked against authoritarians. It just worked against Viktor Orban and Hungary.
What, what lessons you take from how, how corruption can be a way of going on offense against authoritarians. And what other lessons are there about the forms of messaging that that can help drive arguments against authoritarians who are kind of trying to control
βin some ways the media space? Oh, it's a good question. I think, you know, it's also very,β
I need to point out that the authoritarian populism rises not because people, people love it, but also because democracy failed to meet their needs. They talking about corruption also because of it, but the problem with authoritarians that they are, they changed. And, yeah, maybe they no longer rives with tanks and stage coups, but now they build popularity and wins these elections. And, but the problem with people not realizing that once they elected, they erodes democratic
institutions, they destroy independent media and concentrate power and we can see the spaces. So, they slowly like a like a frog in slowly heater water, but at the time you realize that you are already in an autocracy. Building this toolkit, we wanted to show that the time that progressives needs to learn also and sometimes we are also doing wrong. In when we talking about democracy, we not need only to defend democracy, but we also need to renew it.
And, yeah, these 10 volumes, as FEDA mentioned, there are two core volumes, yeah, they are authoritarian playbooks, which helps identify understand authoritarian tactics and democratic playbook,
Which brings together the all best knowledge from all our sector of our toolkit.
But, talking about, yeah, talking about public conversation.
βYeah, I think the progressives needs to change how they do it in the digital environments,β
because the authoritarians, actually, they are the first one who understand these spaces
and they have a clear advantages. Like Buckeller, as mentioned in El Salvador, or even even Orban in Hungary, but he lost. Yeah, I mean, this is influence no longer works through the single message or messages, but through ecosystems, and this is what we did in our data, actually, it's mentioned in our authoritarian playbook, that we need to put a broccoli into rice or working with influencers. This has to be renewed, and our message needs to be also simple.
We need to stop being very preachy. Yeah, so that's my thought about the changes. Well, and FEDA, what do you take? I mean, there's a lot in here. What would you want to highlight for people as some of the key learnings that you're seeking to kind of spread to other like minded people? People are asking us whether we want a different way of doing politics, and this is what we're thinking about when we talk about the authoritarian toolkit. So we are bringing new practices
into what has been hold, and talking about the several lessons that can be learned. First of all,
as Nick was saying, is how do we manage digital communications? So we were talking about putting
βbroccoli into rice, but this is not the only thing. We need to, for example, have networks of influencers,β
change the way in which we talk about politics, come and talk about real values. You were talking about corruption before Ben. There is one thing really important that I want to say about corruption. After retirees, just corruption is the main enemy from the other side. So when they're discovered as the corrupted one, this is the moment in which they start losing. One of the things that we have to do is exactly exposing this corruption and see how the moral authority from which they're coming
to expose the other side is corrupted. It's actually the one that is breaking them because they're
not. And an example that you are gaming about might get a normal, well, might get a one exactly because he managed not only to expose this corruption, but also to go on the ground. And he visit like more than a thousand little places during his own campaign so that while he was a talking about the other side, he was meeting people one by one and building a vision. This is another things that we have seen in several campaigns that really worked like the mandami campaign. We're
not talking just about exposing what it's wrong from the subterritarians. We're also giving people a vision of what is it that word that we would want and that we would like. So all of this together with working with the whole digital ecosystem and what I mean by that, we generally think that democracy is protected either by politicians, either by journalists, either by civil society. What we say here is that we say here is that we don't have those are not three words that are
worked separately. We need to put together the whole democratic ecosystem that is built on this different pillars and make and let them work in a way that they support each other. We have one whole volume and place on how the political side can actually work and collaborate with civil societies and journalists in order not only to campaign, but to expose corruption, to expose the
βauthoritarian place and so be stronger together. This is I think something new that we have seenβ
with all our research and interviews that it is the moment in which we have the whole democratic system working together that we can actually win. And everything can be found in our website anti-authoritarian.com. So if anyone listening to us is interested, you can just think go and give a look to what we're putting up together anti-authoritarian.com. And so you've got, I mean we just pulled out the things we've talked about, you know, the idea of building networks of influencers, the idea of engaging
people on the things that they're interested in then working your way into politics. That's the broccoli and derise. They need to spotlight corruption to kind of turn the tables on the authoritarian's. They need to show up everywhere like you said, Maggiard did to get out into the field to go to places maybe that progressives haven't been showing up before. Nick, are there any lessons that you want to add to that from the work that you've done about how do you mobilize people, how do you get people
out to actually vote? And also one other thing that you guys have is examples of where this worker are their case studies, are their places, you know, Fedit mentioned, you know, Mandoni, New York, we've talked about Hungary. Are there are there places that you would spotlight where we can learn from progressive successes against authoritarian's? Of course, the whole of the whole toolkit is designed
To be adapted.
whatever you are. So I wanted to, you know, when I just wanted to amplify this is the huge of work
βwhich was done by not only by the Deha, but the democracy defender of Hawaii, because we spentβ
almost two years and talked with doing like 100 interviews with the people like real people who was fighting for democracy, who fought or lost in their battles and we really wanted to create some kind of not a publication. This is not a publication. It's a hands-on resource designed to be used by the people right now. This is, I cannot say right now that there is something which we can work for instance in United States, or it was with the best what works in Hungary or in Poland,
but the thing is, like, people can connect. We are as progressives sometimes losing the hope that we can win and we finally have something which can help us to continue. I coming from the
background, when I don't need a hope, I always say that I don't need a hope to continue to fight
and to resist. This is what I was taken from from the queer community in Belarus, because we were,
βwe were, we were existing before this concept of hope. So now I think when we have this materialβ
which can be used and implemented in different societies or different regions, that's kind of impressive. This is what we wanted to do and also this is like non-stop process. This is like the toolkit will be updated, the toolkit will be like we will be updating it through our website, it's a podcast, it's our video, it's everything. So if that had just to give you the last word here, what do you think about, I'd take an x point that essentially what you have is a bunch of different
ideas taken from around the world, here are some strategies and tactics that have worked, that might be either replicated or adapted to other places, so I take your point, Nick,
βthat it's not going to be exactly what happened in Hungary and New York City is going to work in Italyβ
for instance, but that there are lessons you can take and then apply and that there's something empowering about the sharing that you're doing in that regard. Do you, when you look around the world the last couple of years, the time you were working on this, where did you see Democratic campaigns, I don't mean the Democratic party in the US, or Italy for that matter, I mean, you're a small, the Democratic campaigns, where do you see the most innovative strategies
that we can be learning from in the battles to come? Let me add something on exactly that, not only the most interesting strategies, but what ATK is needed for, so as Nick was saying, as well as we're underlying, we cannot take plays and exactly use them in one country, but I give you, like, a very specific example of a play that I thought was extremely interesting, and now people like me in my own country, or like a person who one of the people that wrote
the answer to the answer to get Augustine's write is using in his country, is the play of distributed, distributed, organizing. So this was a play that was developed from one of our friends, that are the real and friends, right before the parliamentary elections in France a couple of years ago. So Macron calls for elections in three weeks before the actual elections, so people didn't really have the time to organize around the elections and understand what they could do. So what they did
is that all of these people came up into a Zoom call, and they started organizing in order to have a get out the book campaign and also to understand who they had to move in terms of candidates to allow for the international not to win. And so what they developed was like a central team that was like
very, very small, and there was not controlling, but this central team was basically managing
the communication of what is it that they can communicate to people that it's going to work, and then share the messages with thousands of organizations, influencers, people that could actually move the base and so that this message could get to a wider public as possible in a way that was not coordinated, I mean, that was coordinated, sorry, but there was not controlled. So the main
Part of the message was there was developed by central team, but then everybo...
to organizations could adopt this message and communicate it in the best way that they needed
βto in order to reach their own target. And in this way, they managed to do these two things,β
develop a huge deal to be campaigned that allowed them to not have the international and so the far-right party in France win, but also to then have a massive influence on candidates, so which where the candidates needed to go down in order for the local level that's proletist in order not to have international win. And they did it, and so now what we're trying to do here in different countries for elections that are coming, it's sort of like replicating the same play,
but in a more organized way. So we are adapting this play, and we're trying to put together
from now in France or civil society journalists that want to have a specific top, the want to have
specific topics to talk about for the elections, and then have a duty be campaign run on this topic that will be supported, or we hope we're going to be supported by central left parties, slash democratic parties that go against the fight right. So what we did here was taking the example of what we used, what was used in France, and worked, we imagined, wrote it in the ATK into the anti-authoritarian toolkit as a play, so a tactic, and then now activists like me are taking it,
changing it, and adapting to their own national country, a context. And this is just one idea, but on anti-authoritarian.com, people are going to find 10 volumes on 10 different topics, all of them
would place and more than 150 cases of what were in different countries, and literally and how to,
so how can you do this play from one to seven steps, including tips to make it work in your own context. So the idea is that this is something we live, we want people to take it, use it, make mistakes,
βbut at least try and have something from strats, like from start from, because I remember thatβ
as an activist, it was really hard because you had no idea from where you had to start, and now at least we have something to tell us, those are the things that are working around the world, you can take it, you can change them, you can use them. This is what we're looking for. Yeah, I think the distributed organizing is an important point, and I mean it resonates here in the United States, because I think Democrats sometimes are trying to figure out the perfect set of
talking points, or the one message that's going to work across the country, or are we moving to the laughter to the center, but the idea is if you have some core arguments and core values, and core antitharitarian messages like Trump is wildly corrupt and is actually looting the government for his own purposes, not trying to fix a corrupt system, that you then allow for a coordinated dissemination of that messaging that, you know, Zoro Maldon is going to have one message in New York City, but
James Talarico is going to have a different version of that message in Texas. There'll be a common DNA, but there'll be this distributed organizing where it's different in different parts of the country, and that's kind of part of what needs to happen around the world. I mean, just to wrap this up, I just say the main thing is that there needs to be coordination among politicians, activists, civil society, even sometimes journalists, as you say, independent journalists, but also just
among the like minded people around the world, because the far right has been very networked, very coordinated, you guys have experienced that in your own lives and work. We're all experiencing that around the world. This is a starting point for trying to create a kind of living resource for people. So again, we'll put this in the show notes and encourage people to check out the anti-heteritarian playbook, the toolkit, and D. Hub in general. So Nick and Federica, thanks so much for
the work you've done on this and for joining us today. Thank you Ben for having us. Thank you so much. Thanks, Nick and Federica for coming on a show, and we'll talk to you guys soon. [Music] Potitive world is a crooked media production. Our senior producer is Elona Minkowski. Our producer is Michael Goldsmith. Our associate producer is Anisha Bondergee. We get production support from
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