War With Iran Is Rewriting Global Markets

a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great

“at talking to each other. That means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different”

apps and services just to keep the lights on. Enough of that. Now there is ODU. The all-in-one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try ODU for free at ODU.com. That's ODU.com. Support for the show comes from hosting. You might dream about launching the next big thing one day or with hosting a, you can turn that one day into day one. Hosting a is an

all-in-one platform that brings everything into one place. Your domain website, email marketing, AI tools and AI agents, and you can go live in minutes, not weeks. Go to hostinga.com/theprofg to bring your idea online for under $3 a month. Plus get an extra 20% off with promo code the ProfG. That's less than the price of a cup of coffee per month. That is hosting a.com/theprofg promo code the ProfG for an extra 20% off. If you're tired of database limitations and architectures that break

when you scale it's time to think outside rows and columns. MongoDB is the database built for

“developers by developers. It's asset compliant enterprise ready and fluent with AI. That's why”

so many of the Fortune 500 trust MongoDB with their most critical workloads. And the best part

is developers swear by it. Literally we can't use the actual words they said in this ad so let's just call it a really great database. Ready to think outside rows and columns start building faster at MongoDB.com/build. , I have a dad joke. That's my best thing. I was a German savior. It's not like that. What is it? That's me. I got some bill at the end. I feel like that is real. I said the Profag. I got

your bill. There's so much bigger than your brothers. Alright live from the Vox Media Podcast stage. At South by South West, we're welcome to

“Profag Democracy. The worst of it is over. Thank God. How are you doing, Scott?”

I'm a little insecure because you look very handsome. The whole blue mint and thing. I don't like this. We did a tour around the lobby. And of course, it was like, "Hi dad, hi dad!" And like asking if Ed's got a girlfriend, all these parents showing up, it's awful. By the way, I got really excited. There's a big line. I'm like, "Oh, that's so excited. When I found out it's for the audacity of joy next door." Folks, no one's coming to save you. This whole

therapy thing. They're the new supplements. Let me just summarize the audacity of joy. It's THC and Netflix. That's joy. Alright. And let me summarize 20 years at therapy. Your pants did their best. Just don't be such fucking jerks. Two, no one's coming to save you. And everything you think is trauma. That's a word for it. It's called life. Back to you Ed. Packival start. We're making fun of other shows. We're feeling depressed. I love it.

So today we're discussing some slightly heavy news because we have to. Today we're discussing Iran Wars. The Iran Wars impact on global markets. And also discussing a future of AI according to the leaders of AI. And we will also have some time for some audience questions at the end.

But first, Scott, let's get into the episode. Good enough. Alright. Today's number.

How am I doing so far? Today's number 15. That's how many venomous snakes species live in Texas.

in the great state of Texas at South by Southwest. Ed, how are you? Welcome to Texas.

“I'm doing I'm doing very well. You're doing great here. You're looking good.”

Got the cowboy hat on. I'm probably going to take it off when we start to talk about Iran. But for now, I'm going to rock it. I'm going to rock it while I can. I like it. And I love the horse head. How did that feel? I felt like I was going to slip and break a hip. And I thought that everyone is generous of my dignity. Everyone thought it was a great idea for me to wear a horse head. It's nice. It's 51 to be doing like pimping yourself for social media. 61.

Alright. Well, I'm going to get a start here because we don't have all the time in the world.

Okay. We're going to start with our first story. The war with Iran has changed the global

landscape in a very short time. And it appears there is no end in sight. On Friday, when asked when the war would be over, President Trump said quote, "when I feel it,

“feel it in my bones." And now investors must reckon with the new reality of war.”

In America, stocks are selling off, but not as much as other nations. European stocks, for example, have fallen 5% since the US struck Iran. Japanese stocks have fallen 8% South Korean stocks 13%. And so if the markets are any signal of what is to come, it would appear that the economic damage of this war might be felt most acutely outside of the US, which raises many questions for both investors and governments alike. So Scott, one of the big themes that we were discussing

over the course of last year was this potential rotation out of America in the global markets. It really started with tariffs. Then it seems to continue as Davos occurred. And as we sort of launched these attacks on Greenland and our NATO allies. And yes, the US stock market performed quite well last year, but notably every other market outperform the US, emerging markets, global markets, Asian markets, etc. And it seemed that that was the trajectory of global capital flows.

Now a wrench has been thrown into the whole system. And that is, Europe appears vulnerable, Asia, appears vulnerable. It appears that everyone else is more vulnerable than America, which raises questions for investors and perhaps that might reverse the flows of capital around the world. So what do you make of what this war has done to global markets and how global capital is moving at this point? So it's pretty, the best metric for tracking flows is just the strength

of the weakness of the US dollar. Because people have to convert into the dollar to buy treasuries or to buy stocks. And last year, while the Trump administration will claim it's been a great year, 14% up in the S&P, if you adjusted for the dollar. Because people were getting out of the US. I would argue because rule of law inability or a lack of trust that all companies are going to get to play by the same rules, a feel of an autocracy and emerging autocracy. All of the things

that we did not have that resulted in a much higher multiple on earnings in the US than they were else. People were transitioning out of the dollar and in other markets. And while 14% sounds like a lot, if you dollar adjusted, if you're a foreign investor last year, out of 23 major markets, the US came in 21st. So we outperform New Zealand and Denmark and every other market beat us last year,

it was up more. Now, in terms of winners and losers, and there's always unexpected winners and losers,

let's start crank it. Let's talk about the winners. So Norway, probably Canada, the big oil producers, probably Saudi Arabia, which won't have much infrastructure, destroyed and we'll see elevated oil prices, which will probably be good for them. The big winner hands down is Russia. And that is Russia now has a lot more capital to fund the war and also there's a distraction from the Western world on the battle or on the war in Ukraine. So there, if you were to look at

“everybody that the biggest winner. What's interesting about the US, I think it's important that we all”

what infects the US, infects texios, for lack of a better turn, tech pros. And that is, in the US, we don't realize a lot of our success is not our fault. And that is, we're just, the smartest thing that can ever happen to you is to be born in America. Or the smartest decision you've ever made is if you were born in America. And you did make the decision if you immigrated here. Because just on a very metal level, we have two oceans protecting us. We have friendly Canada, the North,

harmless Mexico to the South. We have more natural resources than any nation in history. We're energy independent. We produce more energy than we consume. We produce more food than we consume.

whether it's oil or foodstuffs has something that they're dependent upon someone else for.

We literally don't go out of business. We're pretty self-sufficient. About 15% of our economy is important and it's mostly luxury goods or disposable things

“that we can do without. So our SMP is only, I think, off one and a half percent since the beginning”

of the war is over. But close to three percent, but certainly lower than every everyone else. And then if you look at who's, so the US, I would argue reputationally is going to take a huge hit here. Because we're on to the impression that the third of the world's GDP, we can control the world. And the reason we've had so much dominant influence is through cooperation and that essentially

has created the operating system upon which 60 or 70 percent of the world's GDP rest and mostly

cooperates us and says, "Well, I'm not sure about Iraq, but you're allies, so we'll follow you in and ask to add a bunch of nations." So, reputationally, we obviously take a very big hit. I think of the meeting at a long term by kind of going out at a loan, not incorporating your opinionations or our Gulf neighbors. But economically, it's sort of ironic and a little bit sad. We don't get hit that hard. Now, who gets hit really hard? The Asian nations. So 20% of the world's

oil flows through the streets of Hormos, but about 70% of Japanese or Korean oil comes through that straight. So, you've seen the Korean index down double digit. So, if we woke up tomorrow and the

“S&P was off 3 or 5000 points, that's what South Korea has gone through because it ends up making”

semiconductors is very energy dependent. And this country has no, none of its own oil. China is a very strong move to renewables, ton of economic power. It has not been hit as hard, but Japan, and some of the other Asian countries are really feeling it. The most vulnerable, and this is where I think we could have. So, what's the shit you're not expecting to get? So, you know, when was expect? No one knew what a subprime loan was. No one thought, you know, 11 men

were going to find planes and slam them into buildings. So, what's the shit you're not expecting? I think that string that could get pulled here, that could put us into a fairly serious recession is Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, maybe the Philippines. They're energy independent. I'm sorry, energy dependent, very sensitive to skyrocketing oil prices. And also,

their debt is dollar-denominated, meaning that they take out a billion dollars in debt.

They have to pay back in dollars and then when their currency crashes, when their currency gets cut in half, which is happening in some of these markets, they essentially owe double. And they can't sustain that, and they get thrown into chaos. I am after a silver ship. And then the kind of the infection of the contagion is in places like BMP Parabah, or, let's see, other big European bank, I'm blanking, basically say, okay, we have all these

bad loans on our balance sheet. And potentially, it starts to infect other big banks.

“So I think you could see a contagion if the S&P were to be down 20 or 30% this year, which wouldn't”

be unusual. I think it was off last about a 30th of its value on 2022. I think it starts in these smaller markets that are very energy dependent, have currencies that are crashing and have dollar-denominated debt. So unfortunately, we in the US, when we come out, the collateral damage, I mean, it's unfair, but it's true. The collateral damage we cause has a much bigger impact on other nations, and it does on us. In this sort of zone of empathy, if you will,

like no one's talking about dollar-denominated debt in Bangladesh. But if they can't pay their debt, it's going to be pretty ugly. So winners and losers, another winners probably, and I talked about Canada, Norway, the energy guys, but we actually, despite the fact that we should be the biggest winners or the biggest losers on the outcome here, we have dramatic shock absorbers in the form of our, again, these unearned advantages we have. But I think that this comes back to a question that was raised

during tariffs, which is how independent are we really? There are certain things that we can measure, and we can look at how energy independent we are, which we all, but does that really mean that we can just go out and cause chaos all around the world? And because we're protected by these two oceans on either side, and because we have oil, because we have energy, as you point out, we didn't really think about the rare earths and the thought before we got into this. But does that really mean

that we're going to be okay? And I think that this is now becoming the big question here, and I'm a little bit more skeptical or a little bit more concerned about it. I think, for example, about

investments for our start-up and tech ecosystem. Gulf States invested $70 billion in American

companies last year. Trump comes out and he says, these guys are going to invest $2 trillion into

“the US economy in the next few years. I don't necessarily believe him, but that's what he said.”

That is a very, very significant relationship. I would also argue that our relationship with the Europe, with Europe, and with NATO, has been historically quite significant for our success. And now I was saying that we're going to scrap all of that. And I guess my question for the administration, my question for America's, my question for you, if the Gulf States are seeing their houses and their hotels, their luxury hotels, and their desalination plants being blown up,

every, every week or so, every day as we're seeing, are they really down to invest in America in the way that they have? Are they really down to collaborate with us, to trade with us, to form the alliances that we've had? Will Europe be okay with a relationship with America? If their inflation is three times higher than it is in the US, because of their dependence on the straightiful moves, which we went and bombed. It was our fault. What does that do to our relationships

“with these other regions? And does that not come back to bite us in a big way?”

I've never seen you as animated. Look, there's no getting around it. The reason why we have

had the greatest influence of not only financial capital, but before the flows of financial capital, or the flows of human capital, right? You get the best and brightest team of the best players wins and financial capital follows. And there's definitely something to the notion that if you drop an individual in the forest, one individual within three days, they're either eaten by a bear or they starve. You drop 12 individuals into a forest, and this is one of my heroes,

Jimmy Carr, says this, within a couple of generations, you know, they're the apex predator. And our core advantage is the species, this cooperation and communication. And it's also been the core advantage of the American order in America since 1945. As we have generally speaking, we have 800 milliliters, 780 military bases overseas. We have embassies that are hugely staffed with very competent people trying to have our problems. And we're generally seen as obnoxious,

flexing our power, but our hearts in the right place. And we came up with this amazing idea

that if we can help your economy successful, you'll buy more of our more of our SUVs and more of our coach backs, right? So the cooperation or the feeling of trust or feeling of benign big brother that's sort of obnoxious, but who's hard in the right place, that going away is going to have all sorts of unintended consequences. But at the same time when you talk about capital flows, capital flows are totally a moral. Yes. And that is the money will go where things they can

get the greatest return. And, you know, I thought, I thought Meta Stock was going to get really hammered when all this research came out that internal research showed that they had that done their own research showing the one in seven British girls was citing Instagram for a cause of suicidal ideation. I thought my god, the stock's going to crash. Money has very little morality and that is distinctive. The US throwing its way around, making decisions that are bad for the

world have much greater ramifications for the most vulnerable. Money will go where things they can get its greatest return. Full stop. And the money, remember, when I got out of business school, there were all these funds called the Calvert funds that were socially responsible. And that's a nice idea, social, socially responsible investing. Those funds have consistently underperformed. Money is totally a moral. So as long as capital believes it can come to the US and find entrepreneurship

“around whether the hot thing is renewables, AI, I think it's going to be space next. We'll register”

those capital inflows. Where I think it begins to hurt us is that we no longer attract young people or more moral, if you will, the more moral than capital. And the best and brightest will think, I'm going to go study at NCOD or I'm going to go to Singapore or I'm going to maybe think about moving to Japan if I want something different instead of coming to the US. And I think that is huge long-term impacts from the best and brightest. You know, I don't feel as good about moving

to the US. But so far, I mean, when you think about what's happened here in the fact that the S&P is only off, you said 3%. I mean, here's the reality. Other than the oil market, if you looked at our markets and you didn't know what was going on, you wouldn't know what was going on.

East, which could destabilize everything. So America, unfortunately, and this is what it means to have

grace. This is, in my opinion, what it means to be mature and quite frankly, what you know, when I talk a lot about masculine, it means to be a man. Isn't you recognize your strength is to protect others? Not to throw it around and be reckless with it. And you could argue,

“I think, make a tangible argument that we have become the big, strong, wealthy guy at the bar,”

who quite frankly gets fucked up and becomes violent. Anyway, it's back to you, Ed. Well, I guess my question is, what happens to the big drunk guy at the bar who gets violent by the end of the night or maybe in the morning? I don't think it necessarily ends well. I guess this is the part that I think, as you point out, money wants to move to where there is a return, but right now, in 2020, six, money wants to move where there is safety. Money wants to move where

it's not going to get completely wiped out. And that is the question, everyone's asking themselves, how do I make sure that I'm not at risk with my capital? And perhaps that means that American markets are the new safe play. Maybe that's true, but I do think about some of the downstream effects here. I think about what we're seeing with oil, the fact that if oil remains at the

“prices that we're seeing, which is basically a hundred dollars a barrel, we're going to see inflation”

take up nearly a four percentage point in America. You combine that with the fact that we have a labor market that is worsening as we speak. That is definitely a recipe for startflation. That is a startflationary crisis on our hand. And we're already seeing that the Fed is saying that actually we're not going to keep cutting rates, or at least that's what the market is beginning to tell us. There's a possibility that maybe they're going to have to raise rates, which point we've got

rising prices because of what's happened in the Middle East. And with no real end in sight, despite the fact that he says that he feels it in his bones, that this is going to be resolved, combined with concerning job market conditions, I think that there are issues for pretty much every region that we're seeing play out right now, but I worry that we're too confident in our feeling of insulation in America, that everything's going to be fine, that we're not going to experience

perhaps some sort of cyber warfare attack, which we know that Iran is very interested in pursuing,

“because that's what they did to Israel. When Israel struck them last year, I think that there are”

issues, as I mentioned, between our relationships with a lot of these regions and our dependence on their investment. But as it stands, you're right. I mean, the U.S. is the most protected and that is what the market's telling us. But in some of it all sort of comes down to perception and that there's life isn't about what happens to you, it's how you respond to what happens to you. And remember, Maseo, she saw on the CEO of Soft Naked, so the CEO, he had kind of an interesting statement.

He said, "Would you rather be in a fight with someone who's really smart or who are you most, who should you be more scared of? Someone who's really smart or someone who's really crazy?" And his point was you should be scared of someone who's really crazy. And that was somehow a justification for making crazy big investments.

Well, sorry, I made the lead to that, but... But the reality is in America, we're fairly

sensitive. You know, the largest disruption or the biggest calls to customer service in 911 was when at the end of the season ending series of the sopranos and it went black and people thought their cable was out. We have what seems like a tragedy to us is on a different level. And also Europe, Europe's being evaded right now. And essentially, no European nation has even come close to putting a boot on the ground in Ukraine. We have lost... And this is a tragedy. I don't mean

any way to diminish it. We've lost 12 or 14 service people so far. Russia is losing a thousand people a day. We had lost 58,000 people in Vietnam. They had lost a million. We pulled out. We lost 400,000

people in World War II. Russia lost 20 million. Our tolerance for pain is very, very low.

And so we will respond. I mean, to a certain extent, Russia's core competence is their ability to endure suffering. I mean, that is their core competence. Can you imagine us entering a war and losing a million, one point two million people and continuing to fight the war? We just wouldn't do it. So the vulnerability is that our perception of what is difficult or tough or damage is much our bar for pain. Our tolerance for pain is what a man's is versus what a woman's is, right?

This is scientific. It's not an opinion. Men get a cold and think like, you know,

“call 911. Right? So that America's men, our tolerance for pain is very, very low. Now how that”

might trickle down economically is because of income inequality, the top 10 percent of income earning households, now control 50 percent of the consumer economy. We're now a consumer economy. Two thirds of our GDP is consumer led. So if the very wealthy, all of a sudden, start seeing you know, a level of pain that we are just not used to, which is much lower than the level of pain, most countries endure every year, you could see a significant drawback drawdown. I personally,

I never want to hate, I never want to see the markets go down. But the two worst indices in

history are the Dow and the NASDAQ because they create this false comfort that we're doing okay when they go up. The Dow and the NASDAQ are effectively a proxy for how the richer doing. And spoiler alert they're doing really well. I think we could see a pretty dramatic drawdown in the markets, but I personally think there'd be an upside to die. And that is, you know, this is my big rant for the last two years, you are meant to have exogenous shocks. That's a

natural part of the economic cycle. And it's healthy, war, famine, economic shocks. Do you have a healthy part of the cycle? And what is it? Capital gets destroyed. The guy that owns the factory,

“the older person, loses a lot of their wealth and advantage seeds back to labor who you need to”

rebuild the factory, right? These exogenous shocks are typically a recalibration housing crisis crash. They're recalibration are a retransfer back of wealth from owners to earners. But for the last four years, what we've decided is whether it's a virus or a financial crisis rather than let assets collapse and take money from the owners and give advantage back to the earners, we're going to pull out your credit card and ensure in the form of debt and stimulus that I stay

rich. So a certain amount, quite frankly, the people in this audience looks pretty young,

you want the Dow probably good to go down 30 percent. Because if you're going into your earning

years, you want to buy real estate and stocks for as little as possible. The reason I'm economically

“secure is because in no way they bailed out the banks, but they did let the markets collapse.”

And I got to buy Apple Amazon and Netflix are 8 10 and 12 bucks a share respectively. Like where do you find value right now? So I'm not, I hate to say I want the markets to go down, but at some point we have to stop propping up the markets with young people's credit cards. A certain amount of disruption and draw downs in the market is a healthy thing that transfers and seeds, power, leverage and capital, back from owners to earners. We write back off to the

break and if you're enjoying the show so fall send it to a friend and please follow us if you haven't

already, support for the show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting, before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odu comes in. Odu is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory,

e-commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins, just one seamless system that makes work easier and the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you're just starting out or already scaling up, plus it is easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process, so you can focus on what really matters, running your business. Thousands of businesses have made

the switch, so why not you? Try Odu for free at Odu.com, that's OdiOO.com. Support for the show comes from hosting a. The biggest barrier to entry for most entrepreneurs isn't a lack of capital, it's the friction of starting. You can spend months in the strategizing phase, which is precious time that could instead be spent actually making moves, but these days the rules have changed. AI is redefining who gets to build a business. So when

you're building the next big thing, go live in minutes, not weeks, with hosting a. Hosting a is an all-in-one platform that brings everything into one place. You're domain, website, email marketing,

subscriptions. Turn your one day into day one, go to hosting a.com/theprofg to bring your idea

“online for under three dollars a month, plus get an extra 20% off with promo code the Profg.”

That's less than the price of a cup of coffee per month. That's hosting a.com/theprofg, promo code the Profg for an extra 20% off. Support for the show comes from BMC. Before you trust AI to make your business decisions, before you can reliably scale automation across every workflow, before all your data pipelines are connected with intelligence, your business faces some complex challenges ahead. Namely, tackling things like orchestration

as a competitive advantage, unifying your modern and legacy systems, or transforming your mainframe.

Before you take them on, make sure you do one thing. BMC first. BMC is the automation engine

for the AI era. Over the years, they've helped customers worldwide run and modernize their businesses by automating, managing, and optimizing complex IT environments. They've partnered with 80% of the Forbes Global 100. Before automation, before scale, before transformation, before you begin, BMC first. What can you do when you partner with BMC? Get started today. Learn more at BMC.com. We're back with Proxy Markets. This year at South by Southwest, there is one topic that will

be discussed in 89 different sessions we counted. And that topic is AI. A subject with no shortage of hype controversy and also concern everyone wants to know how will AI change my life? Well, if we want to understand the future, we ought to look at the people who are building it. So for today's discussion, we have collected some quotes from notable AI leaders on what they think the future of AI will look like. So let's begin with starting with the job market Scott. According to Dario Amadeh,

AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years. According to service, now CEO Bill McDermott. This was just from this weekend. He said quote, unemployment for new college graduates could easily go into the mid 30s in the next couple of years. According to Elon Musk, quote, probably none of us will have a job. Scott, what will AI do to jobs in America? In the short room, there'll be a dip and in the long

run it's going to create more jobs. You have new business formation, 550,000 new applications for jobs this year, 150,000 and 2000. When I graduated from business school in 2002, 92,

there were only two entrepreneurs in my entire class. Two people starting companies in the second

was my co-founder. There just wasn't a very entrepreneurial nature. So there's just so many

“opportunities to use AI to do what traditionally take 10 or 20 people takes two or three. So I think”

it's going to create more jobs and it destroys. I've been saying this for a long time. Also, you've got to keep in mind how to get stalled here. You know, I'll come back to the technology that I think is going to create more shareholder value and represents opportunities. I don't think it's AI. If you are laying off 20 or 30% of your workforce or 10%, what's a better narrative? I'm not very good at what I do when I overhive. Our business isn't growing as strong as we

predicted during COVID or I'm leveraging this new technology because I'm part of the Pepsi generation called AI and I'm going to continue to grow with much fewer costs. What's a better narrative? Everybody is blanketing their incompetence or inability to project a man or slow down

“in their business with quote unquote AI washing, right? What makes sure better press release?”

When you announce your laying off people because your demand is slowing, what happens to your stock? But if you lay off 10% of your workforce because you said, I don't want to need them to deft use of AI. What happens to your stock? So a lot of layoffs I think are going to be called under the auspices of AI. And if you look at actually the number of job ads for programmers, which is supposed to be ground zero, it's actually up because this technology becomes cheaper,

more people use that technology. So despite the fact that supposedly we no longer need coders, the job listings on job boards for software engineers has gone up. And then the other dynamic is the following. And this is one that really chaps me. I coded this thing. I'm Dr. Frankenstein

and I'm such a genius and I've created such a powerful menace that it's going to ruin the world

sold it on the second market and they're piecing out to coat the Zura with Russian horse. So no disrespect to Russians. It's like, you know what? I am sick. Anyone who tells you,

I am so awesome. And I've created something so incredible because I'm such a baller that it threatens

the world. It's like, bitch, that's not helpful. That's not your nihilism isn't. There's something that infects academics and CEOs in that. If we catastrophize, we sound smarter. Saying, you know what, I think AI is not going to have the impact it's going to have. Incrementally, things will get a little bit better every day. That doesn't get you invited to conferences. That doesn't get you from page coverage in the Wall Street Journal. So the catastrophizing

is one, a form of narcissism in my viewpoint. It is not helpful to say you've created something that could destroy the world, but you have no tips. You can't tell us what that peril is or how

“you can encode it. And also, it's sort of a way of saying, you should invest in my company”

and get a $800 billion valuation because this is so scary and so powerful. Why not make money?

So let me get back to the technology that will be big. I get invited now. First time in my life, I get invited to them. I've just started getting invited to these fancy, very fancy dinners and events. And I got invited last night. And I'm going to name drop because I'm desperate for your affirmation. And I saw, I saw and talked to Michael Dell and Mark Cuban. They look like a version of themselves that the old version could eat. They have lost so much weight. These guys,

in my favorite is like, I come up, you know, me. I'm very delicate and very nuanced and very social. And I'm like, which GLP one? And they're also full of shit. They're like, no, I'm just playing

Padilla at me, and oh yeah, right? Padilla and you lost 70 pounds. The agonists, the bottom line is

“the investment strategy. And I'm going long, Lily. I think GLP one is a much more important technology”

than AI. And I've said this for a while. Talk to someone who uses AI every day in their job. And talk to someone who's on a GLP one drug and ask them what's having a bigger impact in your life. I think GLP one is going to be more transformative to our economy and more important for the world than AI. And almost anyone with an IQ over 90, totally disagrees with me. So I'm not suggesting I have a monopoly on this, but when I look at what GLP one is doing, and the thing about GLP one is

every new thing we find out about it, it's a good thing. Oh, it can help with social media addiction. Oh, it brings down your blood pressure. And every new thing we're finding out about AI, it's like, no shit, right? So I, anyways, bringing this back to the markets, AI dramatically overvalued. And the technology can outlive the market capitalization, right? And that is the value may go way down. And the technology will survive. I still think it's going to be huge.

I think it's going to increase productivity, especially in drug discovery. But I would argue from a market standpoint or pure valuation. I think GLP one based drugs have much more upside, both from a sociological level and an economic and a shareholder level than AI, which is now turned to AI washing around firing people and saying it's going to end the world because it's such an amazing technology. At the same time, there is, there is an incentive now for businesses and

for business leaders to figure out a way, whether it's because of AI actually right now or not,

“to figure out a way to lay off a bunch of people. Yeah. So that's what they're trying to do.”

And that is what they are doing. We saw Pinterest later of 1,000 people at last in later of 1,600 people block, which was formerly square. They lay off 4,000 people in 1 go 40% of the workforce. And I think it is very possible that there is some AI washing going on. At the same time, this is now what they're trying to do. We talked to David Solomon, the CEO Goldman says, who said, "My mission is to keep headcount flat. I do not want to increase headcount at

all over the next 10 years." That is his mission. So there is an incentive now to not hire people. And we're seeing huge amounts of job cuts last year, 1.2 million job cuts the most since the pandemic. So there is a problem here, especially for young people. And I'll just bring us back to that quote from Bill McDermott. He says, "I don't see the value in a college education at this point," or at least if you have a college education, it's not going to be put to use in the

ways that we have historically known. That is a real problem for young people, regardless of if there is AI washing going on. And perhaps it's something that we will discuss further in this Q&A section, because I do want to get your advice to young people, especially as a young person.

Yeah. Anyone who tells me not to get a college degree, has a graduate degree from Stanford.

“I got so pissed off. Remember the teal scholarships, drop out of college, and I'll give you a hundred”

grand. I obviously don't have nearly the amount of capital, but I went to Richlands, a friend of mine, who's now the chancellor of Berkeley, and I said, "Can I offer $10,000 to people who stay in college?"

Folks, college has never been more important. And unfortunately, we know it, and we keep raising

our tuition faster than inflation. They've been saying that AI is going to disrupt education, and when you meet a parent, someone my age, whose kids are applying to college, and they say, "Oh, where they are, they don't need." They don't mean kids don't need college anymore. It means that Suzy just got a 22 on the ACT, and they're freaking out about the fact, she's not going to get into a good school, so they're starting to backfill their disappointment with about how kids don't

need AI or don't need college. College isn't about education. It's about certification, marination, finding being in the context of a great gene pool, having an amazing life experience, meeting people, learning how to get along with others, and quite frankly establishing the core competence to be successful in life. And that is the ability to cooperate and maintain really strong relationships. So whether or not you fail calculus, which I did three times,

“2.27 GPA, true strategy, UCLA, you college has never been more important. And by the way,”

the data supports it. College applications are up, and we're raising tuition again, faster than inflation. So be careful with this narrative that you don't need college, and I just find it such extraordinary bullshit that all the people who claim college doesn't matter, all went to college. Yeah. So does that to say, now we have to face reality, two thirds of our children are not going to get college degrees. And so we have to make bigger investments in vocational programming.

I think a loss of cultural and economic standing of the American middle class male is a big problem. And we need to recognize that more women are going to go to college because quite frankly, once we leveled the playing field, they're just better at it. And that's wonderful. We should not get in the way of that. But we also need to realize when you get rid of metal, auto, and wood shop.

“Do you remember that guy in high school? He just wasn't going to go to college. There was a lot of him.”

Probably smoked a little bit of weed, had the journey sure, you know, is this you? You know, on the way to school, through a, you know, through a can of beer at you, and called you a name, and on the way home invited you in for your first Bongload. But it's you. Anyways. But this dude could fix your car. He knew how to work outdoors. You know how to make a living. There was an on-ramp for these dids. Those on-ramps are going away.

So I think that's the bigger problem. Is what do we do? How do we create more on-ramps to a middle class lifestyle for people who aren't cut out for college? Yes. As opposed to talking about how you don't need college anymore. Trust me on this. If you have the resources, what I tell you, if you have the resources and a kid who can, who is academically somewhat focused, and you have the access to college, it's a really good plan to be. Oh, I really fucked up going to

Stanford said no one ever. So it's a more quotes here. Satsin Adela, CEO of Microsoft AI is a cognitive amplifier that gives you access to infinite minds. Sunder Pachai, CEO of Google, he said quote,

AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than

electricity or fire. Is AI more profound than I start? By the way, things change. 100 years ago, 25% of GDP was firewood. I mean, things change, but these guys are just saying by my stock. Well, this is the question is is AI more profound than electricity and fire? Maybe there's. More fundamentally, will it change the world for the better? Is this something that will ultimately will look back on and say that was the right thing to do? Well, that's a bigger. That's obviously

huge question that a lot of people will, you know, stare at their navel around. But I would argue that the better bet. So, and I say this, I say this a lot because I'm trying to normalize it. I start with anger and depression. So, I see everything through dark colored lenses and I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. But I also love data. And if you love data and you're honest and you have a

fidelity to data and trends, the reality is you constantly need to ask yourself around technical

innovation, what could go right? Yeah. And by the way, the optimists, on any level, the optimists have kicked the shit out of the pessimists with respect to predictions about the world, about health.

or 50 years. Infomercial crime is it in all time low in the United States. Infomerciality is plan. I mean, there's just, if you look at the world on any sort of, if you pull the aperture back at all, things continue to get better despite the fact that a lot of scientists once we split

the atom and had a first nuclear detonation actually killed themselves, because they thought,

if we have nuclear bombs, that's it. That's the end of the world. And they decided, I don't want to be around for this apocalypse and they killed themselves. So, I don't see why AI can't be used as aggressively for defensive measures to spot opportunities for terrorism, for great drug discovery.

“The fear I have and I've said this over and over, we need to have regulation around AI. And I think”

the place, the biggest danger, threat that AI represents is loneliness. In that is, age 20 to 30 are now spending less time outdoors in prison inmates. The number of kids who sees their in high school that sees a friends every day has been cut in half and just the last 20 years. And I really struggle with this. You don't have kids yet. My kids have struggled with the

eye seduction. I haven't figured this out. I'm my joke that my kid at one point would lie and

say it's stomach didn't feel well. So we could go into the bathroom and then we noticed, he took his phone in there and I'd hear him on TikTok and I'd have to bang on the door and say, start masturbating. True story. My kids are, my kids are so horrified by me. They have literally like, they shut, he goes, I'm thinking of deleting my Instagram account. So I don't have to see the shit you are saying. Anyways, the, we have too many young people. I worry, the biggest threat of AI

in my view is the following. It's not sent in self-healing weapons. Yeah, it's an income inequality, but everyone in this room is voted for income inequality, whether you're a Democrat or a public and we all just think that at some point we're going to be in the one percent so let's really

fuck the bottom 99. That's very, that's like the most American thing in the world is our optimism,

like just wait and see how I behave when I'm in the top one percent. But the biggest threat is that slowly but surely we are producing a new species of AI, social, asexual males. And throughout history, the darkest moments in history have all had a preponderance of lonely young men with a lack of economic and romantic opportunities. And one of the reasons America has thrived is that essentially we have the greatest invention in history and that's the American

middle class. And quarter that was a group of men that a lot of women were attracted to. And I realize how sexist this stands, this sounds, but I'm going to stick to it. The way of the world throughout history has been a small number of men through luck or talent, just gather a disproportionate amount of economics and then they gather a ridiculous proportion amount of the mating opportunities. And the bottom half of men are totally shut out of the mating market. And a man who is economically

unviable and has no romantic possibilities becomes very dangerous and can be weaponized by a

“strong man. And I think that is effectively slowly but surely what's happening here.”

And AI is fueling it. It is giving young men their sense that they can have a reasonable facsimile of life on a screen with an algorithm. They don't need friends, they have read it into a score. They don't need to get a job because they have coinbase and Robin Hood and why on earth would they go through the effort rejection and humiliation and perseverance and developing skills and getting girl friends that helped them figure out how to behave around women when they have

what is going to be increasingly lifelike porn. So we need age gating on AI. We need removal of section 230 protection when kids start having suicidal ideation or psychosis. If I go to a bar tonight and they see I'm ridiculously fucked up and they also know I'm driving. If I get on the road and kill someone the bar is liable. So why on earth would AI not be liable when they can sense someone is going through psychosis or casing of school as the 18 year old in Canada was doing

or that they are thinking about getting their stepfather's gun and killing themselves so they can be with Daenerys because they believe that's going to happen in the afterlife and the character AI who is Daenerys is said I am waiting for you my love. All of that is a true story. We have to

“regulate these companies but again I don't see self-healing weapons I don't I don't I think the”

catastrophizing is fun and makes for great sci-fi but unfortunately the most damaging thing is much more insidious and much more boring and that is young people are deciding not to do what makes us mammals and that is get together lie on each other touch each other develop friendships develop mentorships have sex decide that the person you're having sex with is not that bad you'll hang out with them more and you decide to build a life in kids and you save for a house

know where I'm going with this ad we should get to questions we should we should just just point out

“even if AI is going to benefit all of us the reality right now is that most Americans think”

it won't and that's actually quite new if you look at the internet in 1999 two thirds of Americans said that this was a good thing they viewed it favorably today less than half of Americans

have a favorable view of AI less than a third of Americans trust AI 80% of Americans think that

AI is a threat to humanity so regardless of what the technology is going to do clearly there is a PR problem here clearly the way this is being sold to us is not the way that most of us would like and so I'd like to be the optimist but unfortunately you look at the way most Americans feel right now and I'm curious to see how this weekend will unfold in these AI discussions but the numbers tell us Americans do not feel good about AI right now and that is something that business leaders need

“to contend with and also our government because they need to regulate it. Thank you Scott and thank”

you all we're going to take a look at the week ahead here we'll see the federal reserves next interest rate decision we can expect effect to hold rates steady with 99% certainty according to calcium it's worth noting that since the war in Iran broke out odds of a rate cut anytime this year full and more than 20% Scott very quick prediction and then we're going to get into the questions. Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines are going to be in the news more their dollar

denominated debt is about to become unsustainable it's these emerging or these nations we're not talking about it so it's the shit you don't see that they get to are going to be in the news over the next few weeks as we realize next few months that they're the ones unfortunately they're other than the people of Iran are really going to pay the price for this war. We'll be right back and for even more markets content sign up for our newsletter at

propertymarkets.com. it's your garden start club for the free link by action in quality and the smallest price hand in hand. to buy a lot of money you only have 24 or 28 or your garden touch garden share only one two and a half. in decades all garden products in our country and and in the action app action blinded by a close fighter. when you think about wealth inequality in America there's probably one man whose name comes to mind and yes he did compare

America's billionaire era to the guilty age. we're living in a moment where the top one percent

owns more wealth in the bottom 93 percent where one man you learn most owns more wealth than the

bottom 53 percent of American households where while 60 percent of our people are living paycheck to paycheck the billionaire class has seen its wealth increased by a trillion and a half dollars since Trump was elected. how's that they doing pretty well? I talked to Senator Bernie Sanders about his latest bill for a wealth tax and his call for a moratorium on AI data centers. plus how much he uses AI himself today explained every weekday and now on Saturdays too.

for a brief period of time in the beginning of the pandemic a time that I'm very sorry to make you

“have to remember there was this hot new act that promised to reinvent the way that we thought”

about social media forever. clubhouse was going to be the thing and this week on version history our chat show about the most interesting and important and best and worst products in tech history.

we're talking about why clubhouse took off and then ultimately why it went away. that's on

version history available on YouTube and wherever you get podcasts. we're back with proffty markets. we have about 12-10 minutes left for questions so please go ahead and line up in the aisle. and also just a quick question no speech is cosplaying a question no promotion here company. please keep it to 15 seconds and actually ask a question. Scott had great great session. please introduce yourself and please introduce yourselves.

this is a nice sir. but you told me not to be proud of my company. my name is Rex Lee. I'm with Cybertalk TV. I'm pod TV on Roku and I'm a tech journalist. Rex. how you doing? I want to talk a little bit about

leaders of AI today work for the largest data brokers in the country and their AI platforms are

supported by surveillance and data mining technology as well as addictive technologies. so regarding the LA social media trial, I feel that there's a group of people that should be defendants along with the platform developers and that's the advertisers. they're the ones that are funding addictive technology and I think they should be held viable and I also want to get your thoughts on an electronic bill of rights protecting those of us who are connected to the internet that are being exploited by

“these companies when they're nearly 10 minutes. so that's what I'm talking about. so should the”

advertisers be liable? my sense is that it's the platforms. the advertisers have no choice. I've worked I've worked with the biggest advertisers in the world and their view is we don't want to advertise on meta. we'd rather not. we see the dangers. we don't like the concentration of power but if we don't, these platforms have consolidated the market. they're very good at what they do and you know, remember the advertising boycott against meta about five years ago?

meta is such an unbelievable business from a business standpoint because no one advertiser has more than one percent of the revenue. so they just have absolutely no power. so I do think that the liability rests with the companies but the real culprit and all of this is us and that is we have not elected a group of individuals who have the backbone and the domain expertise to regulate these

“companies. we need to remove section 230 originally legislation written in 1997. it's a much different”

world now and also we need more structural reform. again it's the boring shit. we need to remove

citizens united because this is the bottom line. companies will always do what makes them an

incremental dollar. we keep waiting for the better angels of these companies to show up but they're see us to show up. they won't. they'd have sex with their sister for another nickel. get used to it. the notion that somehow Mark Zuckerberg is going to wake up and realize he's doing damage to the world. General Motors would still be pouring mercury into the river unless there was legislation unless we had an EPA. who said fault here is that because of citizens united, tech has figured

out that the greatest ROI is not AI. it's not capax. it's not in video chips. it's giving money to senators including Senator Schumer whose daughter works at meta. and then they get very concerned

about legislation and no legislation never goes through. unless we have structural reform that

sends people to do what they're supposed to do and that has prevent a tragedy to the comments, we're going to continue to have no regulation and legislation and these CEOs are going to do it every CEO's done throughout economic history. they're going to make a series of incremental decisions that are bad for people they never meet and a teen in Ohio is having suicidal ideation. such that they can get a golf stream. that is just the way of America. so here's the bottom line.

until we elect people who are willing to implement regulation and can get elected without money, a ton of money, it's just going to get worse folks. thanks for the question. thank you. Hey guys, my name is Jay Riches. I just exited my market research company. I'm now the MD of an influencer marketing agency that acquired us. I have an 18 year old son. you spoken about raising young men and why patriotism and responsibility still matter. what do you think that's

in particular, I'll get him wrong when raising the sons in 2026? it's a really thoughtful question.

“why? I can just show you what I got wrong. I thought, and then you should talk about how”

your father fucked you up. like this, this is what I got wrong. I thought that having a son was going to be a series of hallmark moments where I got just this immense amount of like love and reward back. I thought, oh my sons are naturally going to be super into whatever I'm into because they're going to think I'm some hero and that they'll come out of the womb, interested in World War II movies and CrossFit. and what you find is that your kids are pretty

awful. they're demanding their selfish, they're inconsiderate, they're really mean to your partner and totally entitled, and occasionally there's a nice moment. occasionally wake up and they smile, you know they came into your bad. there's a case, but be clear, if you're like me and you made the mistake of thinking relationships or a transaction and that you were going to get more from your kids, then you're going to get back. you're going to be just very disappointed. where you

hopefully evolved to, and you're just asking this question your thoughtful man, is that when you have

whether it's helping people, people disabled veterans that you will never meet or it's basically

overinvesting in kids where your deficit is so enormous. my goal is such that my kids could never pay me back. and I finally figured out that's the whole shooting match, right? that that is what it

“means to be happy. that's what it means to have purpose is that you're on the wrong end of the”

investment. that you find something you love so much and will let you love it and invest in it, that it would be almost impossible to get a return. and that's what I found so nihilistic and crazy scary about Sam Altman's comments when he said, well, when talking about the energy efficiency of AI, he compared he said, well, you're not taking into account how much energy it takes to raise a

human before they have the critical thinking. this guy just does not get it. the whole shooting

match is you find causes or purposes or humans that you just go so all in on that they could never pay it back. I didn't figure that out as a father until it was older. thank you for the question. appreciate it. thanks man. hey guys my name is Richard I'm a 17 year old high school student from Brownsville, Texas and I'm working on a project to get a students educated in financial and technological literacy. my question is what's the single most powerful argument to get corporations

“like Google or JP Morgan to back this project or funded? to back the project. what's the project?”

take a teach students financial and technological leaders? do you want to take this?

I think it's incredible that you're here and that you're so young. I mean I think some of the things

yeah. yeah. and it's amazing what you're doing. I mean one of the things that we've been talking about in this world of AI and that we keep on hearing among leaders of larger companies in a world of AI is they think if AI is going to do all of these jobs like should we really be hiring young people? it should be really be taking these young people on. and it's a genuine question that first I'm kind of like I'm actually not sure what the answer to that is. I mean as I mentioned

maybe your job is to keep head count flat. maybe you shouldn't be hiring people. one thing that I would say I think you're an example of this. I think people would be astounded just how talented, dynamic and hardworking young people are including really young people such as yourself really can be and what value they can provide to companies. and I think Scott has is kind of an example of this. I mean we talk about this with our team. our team is over here which by the way

we should also give shout out to them. but Scott and this podcast in this company is an example of betting on young people and taking a chance in a risk that maybe they'll fuck things up but maybe they'll be really great at it too. and I think that that is something that is being undervalued right now. among companies who are trying to figure out ways to sort of just put young people to the wayside and that's what we're seeing in the unemployment rates of young people right now.

“but I think a lot of people one that you'd be surprised how little you have to pay young people first off.”

on the second would be how talented and dynamic they can really be. and you are the guys who are using this technology, you have that highest fluency in these technologies. so I think these companies have every reason to bet people like you. but start doing it, start offering the service and then unfortunately try and get as much attention on social and then start relentlessly harassing the executives. and until they give you money. thank you. and good luck to you.

young man, who is your name? just send us a link where you're easy to find on your effort. thank you. we are unfortunately out of time. I'm sorry for the other questions. but we really appreciate it. [Music]

integrated platform to handle everything. seriously, everything. inventory, CRM, accounting,

HR and much more. no more shopping around or sessling for expensive services that it can only

“handle a fraction of your business. thousands of businesses have made the switch so why not you?”

try Odoo for free at odoo.com. that's odoo.com.

on stepstown.de/alljobs stepstown. einfach die richtigen talentefinden für alle Jobs.