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Hiring, do it the right way, with indeed. Today is number 57. That's the percentage of American dating app users who are a man. Ed Shustory. I was furious when I found my wife had a profile on Raya. That line bitch isn't fun to be around.
I like the Ronald McDonald approach to dating quarter-pounder. Ooh, that's right. Claire's got her hands over her eyes. She's got her hands over her eyes. At least it's clever. How are you? I'm doing very well. Back in New York.
Good to be here. You did make it home. I made it home. I made it home. The blizzard was a real problem.
So Ed is like an amateur traveler, like a little snowstorm and he's stuck in London for three days. He's like, oh no, I missed a flight. I have to be here until the winter solstice and go on the Queen Mary. You're so amateur. You know, I also left a sweater on the plane so I'm not having to deal with that.
So you all right, I have an amateur. I'm sorry. Okay, okay.
βDude, do you realize how much should the fact you even brought that up?β
I know I should just, I should just go get myself a new one, right? But it's my favorite sweater. I looked online, tried to find it, couldn't find it in the right color. And so yeah, I put the complaint in for a sweater. I've lost computers and passports and panoride watches on planes and this is what you do.
Oh, I need a new computer panoride or passport.
You're never getting it back.
Well, how do you think this flight attendance looks so good when they're not working? You think they've ever returned to anything? I will check back with you. I'm going to get that sweater back. I get your sweater back. Yeah. How are you?
I'm doing really well. I've been down to Don'ts Podcast. I'm trying to figure out what to do with resistance. I'm subscribing to March. Do I do Madame March?
I'm doing this event next Sunday in Minneapolis. My youngest got a shadow day at a high school we were applying to. So I'm taking him to the US and then I might go to the zero bond opening party in Vegas. A little bit a little bit of chocolate and peanut butter there.
βDo you have to go to the zero bond opening party?β
No, the correct question is, do I have to go to the fucking shadow day for my kids high school? Daddy needs to head to Vegas. Love that Vegas. Vegas, baby. You want to come with me? Yeah, now I'm taking Claire.
I think Claire's dirty or the new. I don't think she minds me getting fucked up. I think Claire wants to go. I think Claire wants to go. I think you take Claire. He'll judge me.
You seem you seem surprisingly uncomfortable.
Were my jokes that bad today?
I do. You seem very uneasy. Is it because you don't have your favorite sweater? Do we need Claire? Do we need to get at a plushie? Yeah, you need to stuff today.
Do we need to get at a plushie?
βThat's what you decide to talk about on the podcastβ
that you left a sweater on a flight. I live a boring life. These things are important. You have a very exciting life. I'm not going to the zero bond opening party in Vegas.
Yeah, but the problem is you're going to get more action
and South by Southwest. Everyone's going to be like, can you introduce me to Ed? Well, speaking of South by Southwest, quick shout out. We are returning to the Vox Media Podcast age at South by Southwest.
On Saturday, March 14th, I'm very excited about it. Scott, I think is very excited about it. So join me and Scott at 10 a.m. for a live taping of Prophecy markets. Last year was honestly pretty epic.
We filled out that auditorium and we had a great time. The year before that was our very first time doing a live show. Less epic, but still pretty fun. But I think this year's going to be the greatest ever. Is it another thing?
Are we doing, do we have a sponsor?
Are we doing it at some corporate headquarters? Are we doing it actually at South by Southwest? Are we doing it at South by Southwest? On the Vox Media Podcast stage? On the main stage?
βWe're taking, I think 16 of us are going, aren't we?β
It's like a bunch of us. You guys did a shitty hotel on daddy's days with the Austin proper because daddy's daddy. But I love it there. I think it's so much fun.
I think it's. And please try to be sincere, which is an easy for me. But please come up and say hi, especially. Ed's a little like pretentious and little air again. And thinks it's better than everyone else.
I am clear and I are down with the diggerati at South by. Or well, before we move on here, I'd love for you to really genuinely and passionately read the info about our special discount on the Vox Media.com website. Could you?
Great that they're just getting us all right. That's a good sign. For more info on a special discount, visit voxmedia.com/ssw. We'll see you there. That's compelling copy.
That's compelling copy. You can feel the excitement. It's powerful. Okay, let's move on. A blog post about AI from Streny Research stirred up some market chaos last week.
After a drop, the Dow fell as much as 2% and software stocks fell 5%. We've seen markets react to AI commentary before. But this time, there was a twist. This piece wasn't really an analysis. This piece was actually fiction titled the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.
The blog imagines a scenario where AI drives unemployment to 10%, where consumer spending collapses, where markets plunge and the entire economy is fundamentally reshaped. So Scott, we discussed this a little bit with Josh Brown. During the week last week, he had some interesting thoughts.
We also got a lot of feedback from our audience. A lot of people are very shaken by this article. Again, it doesn't really tell us anything we didn't already know.
But it does imagine a potential scenario where AI is so powerful.
It's so productive that actually it just completely rewrites the script of our economy and actually puts the S&P, puts all markets into the red. And takes the consumer economy down with it. So let's just start with your initial reaction to the Streny Research article, the blog post. And also how the markets reacted.
βI think the best thing about that paper.β
That paper inspired an enormous drawdown in the market. And it inspired me to start buying stocks in Apollo, T.P.G. and Blue Owl. Because, I mean, just to summarize and I bet everybody has already heard this. But the basic notion is that, okay, these white collar work gets kicked in the nuts, right? And that unemployment basically doubles.
And then there's because of all these big spenders who have good jobs get fired. They kept their consumer spending and consumer companies are forced to look for places to save money to maintain their EBITDA margins. They turned to AI and it just kind of inspires us and so on and so on in this downward loop. That's not an original concept.
I mean, the idea that we've gone from 90% of us in agriculture to 2%, you would have thought that people being laid off, spend less money, spend less money on food. Technically, it's not a new concept. What's different here is the speed and they think the severity. But where I head with this, is it effectively what you have?
Now the companies I'm looking at, I've been doing a lot of selling and buying. I've been selling down Apple and Amazon for kind of resistance and unsubscribe.
I'm reallocating it into SaaS companies and also, I think the new opportunity
is in these PE private credit or what they call business development firms. So just to look at them, Apollo is trading at 14 times earnings while maintaining double-digit earnings and AUM growth.
βAnd that's how they make money as they deploy AUM and they collect two and 20 on it.β
So it's trading below market multiple of the S&P despite higher growth. TPG is trading at about a third below kind of fair value estimate relative to its peers.
It's got incredible fundraising and it's expanding its fee earnings.
And essentially these prices reflect pessimism more than growth trajectory. And then blue owl, which was kind of the ground zero for this, has a 78% dividend yield. And the market appears to be, in my opinion, overinflating the fears around private credit. Or put another way, I think the opportunity here, and I want to get your thoughts, is that there's a growth versus valuation mismatch.
And that is all three of those companies are growing AUM and recurring fee revenue. And sector multiples can press due to kind of private credit or liquidity fears. So I would argue kind of to summarize, compress multiples plus durable fee growth plus strong fundraising.
βAll adds up to what I think is undervalued, stocks relative to the broader market.β
All those companies you mentioned, they have gotten really, they got really hit hard.
All to this obstacle came out. Some other names that have gotten really hit hard, again, because of this AI narrative. Visa, MasterCard, American Express, DoorDash, a lot of the big software names. And you ask yourself, like, okay, what are all of these companies? What are all of these stocks having common?
If you look at their fundamental businesses, they do not have a lot in common. They're very different businesses pursuing very, very different objectives. The thing that all of those companies having common is they were all mentioned by name in the blog post.
Which tells you that these drawdowns have absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals.
Nothing to do with what we're actually seeing with their businesses on the ground, nothing to do with their earnings. It's all about the vibes. It's all about the fact that they were included in the big bucket of stocks that this guy who wrote this interesting and, as we've discussed, very well written article that was really creative
βand really fun to read. I think that's an important underlucked aspect of this.β
And they were all mentioned by name. And because of that, you saw this gigantic drawdown literally in a single day on all of these stocks because they were included in that article. And that is like the most obvious perfect example of narrative running away from fundamentals. Narrative becoming untied and untethered from the numbers. And so I think you're right with your instincts to just go in and be like probably going
after buy these things because it is such a clear indication of such a level of panic and confusion in the markets. Imagine you are an asset manager and you've been invested in, let's say, door-dash for a number of years. And you've done pretty well if you were an early investor. And imagine this article comes out because your friend's friend sent it to you over DM on Twitter and you read it and you see the name door-dash and the guy who wrote the article says the door-dash
is going to be the poster child of the AI apocalypse. And then you see people retweeting it and people commenting about it and then he starts to look at the markets, maybe you see a little bit of a drawdown beginning to occur. And then suddenly he's like, oh my gosh, all bets are off. I'm panic selling right now. That is such a crazy thing to do. And what I'd love to know is like, who is actually selling right now? I mean, we could talk about the macro themes in this blog post.
I think there's a lot in there that is very interesting and that we should take seriously. But the selling pressure that we're seeing after these blog posts come out, we have sort of the same thing with the other blog the other week, something big is happening. Another dude writing a think piece is a creative writing project. Not telling us anything new, telling us all the same things that we already know, but reframing it in a creative and slightly
do-merish way. And then suddenly we're deciding to just re-rate everything based on that interesting and creative think piece. And it really doesn't make a lot of sense. So I think that your instincts are correct on that. On the the the blog itself, I mean, some of its conclusions, I think are fair and worthy of discussion. I think that there is a real unemployment risk here
With AI that is worth talking about.
all of the different elements and pieces in the ecosystem and how there could be a chain reaction that is triggered by AI. I don't agree with the fact the idea that it's going to bring
βdown the markets by 40% I think that's way over the top. But the fact that all of these thingsβ
are interconnected, I think that is a worthwhile statement. But it's the conclusions that are being drawn and the actions that are being taken after these things come out. Which just makes me think like, "Where is your conviction?" I mean, if you were invested in these companies for the past 10, 15 years and then suddenly some guy writes something you decide this is it now I'm going to sell.
It's like, well then I don't really agree with your prize in the first place if this is what it took.
Some article that some guy wrote online that was kind of interesting and spurred some imaginative thoughts. So we should turn it against to some of his economic predictions. What were the biggest assumptions around some of the macro factors he's assuming here? The central stat is, again, that he's writing this as if it's 2028 and we're looking at what's happening in the headlines, quote, "the unemployment rate printed 10.2% and the cumulative drawdown in the S&P was down to 38%
from October 2026 highs." And the central thesis is that AI adoption is going to cause this mass unemployment which is going to reduce wages and reduce earnings across the board and it's going to put the economy into this downward spiral. And there's this idea that he brings up called, which is called Ghost GDP. And I'll just read you the quote. It says, "When cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pond, it's popularized, the phrase Ghost GDP, output that shows
up in the national accounts, but never circulates through the real economy." And this is really
the central idea of this AI thesis that there's going to be a lot of value that is created, but none
βof us are really ever going to sit. And I think that that is arguably fair, only up to a point.β
And the trouble is it gets into this level of doom erasm that just is is really unrealistic where there's this idea that actually we're not going to be able to get paid anything, because AI is going to completely replace us, which is going to completely eviscerate incomes, completely eviscerate wages. And meanwhile, as that is happening, consumption of the AI products is going to keep growing and growing and growing. And this is the part that doesn't really make sense,
because how is it that you're going to have people who don't have enough money to pay for anything,
or to consume anything, and yet consumption continues to go up. And this is the part where he's very descriptive on the value destruction that we might see, but then completely ignores the value creation and what we might do with all of that productivity. And I think this is the thing that a lot
βof people are taking issue with, it's something that I take issue with as well. I think that there'sβ
not enough analysis of what's going to happen on the other side of those accounts. I mean, if you've got consumption going up, then that necessarily assumes that people have money to pay for things. But he doesn't really acknowledge that side of the equation. He only focuses on the downside, which when you read it is kind of interesting. But when you start to logically think it through, it doesn't really make much sense. Where you've done, and I want to use it as jumping out of
point, you've been talking a lot about what is there I mean for your career, and I've been thinking a lot about it, okay, on a metal level, how should you be thinking about not only how you allocate your financial capital, and we talk a lot about where we think things are oversold in our opportunity as we do in the south space, and now the private credit space or the business development space, in terms of your own human capital, the way I would try and frame it as the following, my mom was a
secretary. She oversaw the secretary of pull at the southwestern University School of Law in downtown LA, where, by the way, worked in the mail room, and that's gone away. Word processing, you know, there's no more secretaries. They're gone. But my mom had good EQ and went upstream and became an executive assistant. Another example, we have every piece, every contract I had with an advertiser within employee. I used to, if I got investment document, if I'm negotiating a agreement with Vox,
I'd send to our lawyers. And some mid-level, not even a partner attorney, would review it come back with some thoughts. I'd jump on the call, cost me one, three, five thousand dollars. Every every agreement sent it sent it to a lawyer. Now, I say to, quote, who's working with us now, you're smart. Have a
Eye look at it, give the prompt on what you're worried about it, get a feedba...
in-house council. At the same time, so being a quote-unquote fairly mid-level attorney, that's not a
βgood place to be. At the same time, I'm spending more money than ever on a woman named Lucy Lee, who'sβ
this partner at a firm called Citron, around things like corporate structure, ensuring that the types of compensation strategies for you guys that give you the opportunity to sell shares at some point long-term capital gain. Structuring the company sets that any capital I put in, if we hold on to it for five years, might qualify for 1202. I am spending probably more on legal this year, but it's moving upstream from reviewing simple advertising agreements to a corporate structure
and tax efficiency, which is Latin for tax avoidance. So the question everyone should be asking
in their job is, of all the things I do here, what is most complicated, and generally most of them
come down to, a lot of them come down to sort of EQ or complexity. What do I do with its harder complex, what involves relationships, and will I have an opportunity to move upstream or downstream,
βyou know, because a lot of that stuff will be taken out. I think this is a really important point.β
You're pulling back on a certain type of legal service, and you're spending a lot less money on that because you've got this AI tool that is helpful and you've hired someone who's going to consolidate that work, but then you're spending more on the corporate restructuring over here, and that is a dynamic that I think a lot of people are not really recognizing, which is, sure some money might move out of this ecosystem, but then where is it going to go? That's the
question that people aren't really asking enough, and that the satrini research article actually refuses to acknowledge at all. They spend a lot of time saying, here's where the money's going to move away from. It's going to pull out of here and here and here and here and here, and then I don't know, and they just offer no other alternatives. I think one of the, the, in my view, one of the silliest predictions is the idea that friction goes to zero. This is a big
thesis that we see in the article, the idea that all forms a friction in business and in daily life when you're, you know, trying to book something and it takes time, and it's annoying all of these things that often involve some level of middle management or human relationships. All of that is going to go to zero because AI agents can do them for us. Therefore, friction on which a lot of the economy is built is going to be entirely eliminated. That's the way they describe it. It's just
gone now. That again is a, is the wrong characterization because what's happening, it's not that the friction is suddenly eliminated is that we now have a technology in a set of companies that are just
handling the friction better than the old companies, which is the same thing we always see with
technology. If you look at, you know, VISA, which was brought up in the article or MasterCard, someone might make the argument that when they came up with the credit card, they eliminated the friction of paying with a track or paying with cash and so therefore friction is gone. No, the friction has just been handled by someone else. And now the value and the money is occurring to a different player. The same thing is going to happen with these AI agents and the same thing
is going to happen for, as you say, you're taking the money away from here and now I'm going to spend it on something that is also worth my time. And so the money is going to go to someone. The only real concern, if this, I mean, if the doomsday scenario actually plays out would be that all of the value is sucked up and literally hoarded with no redistribution mechanism whatsoever into the hands of literally just like the few people that own the AI companies. Now, that's not a totally
ridiculous statement because we're already seeing how that's kind of playing out in our current
βeconomy. But it's not going to go to the extent that I think that this article assumes you'reβ
going to need some level of consumption in the regular economy for the value to go up and for the value to accrue somewhere. And that's the part that the article doesn't really acknowledge enough. I do want to say one more point. This was a YouTube comment that I read this morning that was responding to Josh's view that I think is kind of similar to us that this article is a little bit out there and it's not, it's fiction, it's not going to happen. So I just want to
get your reactions to this YouTube comment. This guy says, okay, Josh. But what happens when AI renders my kids $250,000 finance undergraduate degree useless because he can't get an entry-level analyst job because the jobs have all been assimilated under some AI chat part or if their
Law degree is useless because they can't get an associate job because the par...
AI can get rid of 80% of their associates and paralegals. When this hits white collar the way
automation has hit blue collar jobs then what are we all communists for advocating for UBI or do they all pivot to just deliver for Uber Eats? Oh wait, they can't. All the cars are autonomous because of a robotic delivery driver. This was a popular comment on the YouTube. I just want to
βsee if you have any thoughts or responses to that. I think that comment is a function of dissatisfactionβ
with our economy where two few people are enjoying the spoils and I don't even think this is some of that as a function of technology but what we hate to admit is we keep voting in people. Bernie and Senator Sanders and Senator Warren have been bitching and moaning about inequality
for 30 years while they've been in the Senate including when they controlled all three houses. We have
purposely chosen Democrats and Republicans income inequality. So yeah, technology has been played a part in it but be clear we have decided we want income inequality in the U.S. because we all believe at some point that will be a millionaire and just wait to see how we treat the bottom 99% more in the top 1% now is that a breaking point where it's at the same the genico efficient is at the same levels of France during the French Revolution? Absolutely. But what Josh has said that really
βstruck me you need to ask yourself what could go right. I love that. So what does your kid do? First offβ
in terms of this narrative that your college degree isn't worth. That's effectively what he's saying is that the college degree at Stern or at EVA is not worth $3 to $500,000. Okay, I get it in theory but guess what? Applications have record highs this year to law school. If there's a place you would think people would not be applying to school or would have no pricing power you would think it be law schools. No evidence of that. People are still doubling down on law school. I would argue
that probably it's because EQ and being a well-rounded person better immunizes you against whatever change comes down from this technology or others than anything else you can do. In addition when people ask me what's the difference? I speak here in the U.K. What's the difference between the U.K. in the U.S. I say the same thing. You're the ones that stayed. The word risk defines our success. We're more willing to take risks on capital. We're more willing to start crazy
stupid businesses. People are much more promiscuous with their own capital thinking maybe some day I'm investing in the right Google people are much much more risk aggressive giving up a good job and moving to San Francisco and taking a lower salary and more equity in a startup and just along the lines of risk. The number of new business permits or new business applications in 2004 not that long ago was 150,000 new business applications this year or last year. It was
half a million. Triple the number of people have decided to try and start their businesses. Some of
that might be because they've fed up in the corporate world or they don't have any choice but whatever it is. It's it's striking how many people are starting businesses when I graduated from business school in 2002, 92. There were only two entrepreneurs in my entire class and my co-founder was the second. There were no one was starting businesses. Just to be the optimist here, there is a really solid case here around what could go right. The American ethos of risk taking
and understanding of technology. Every innovation and technology has over the medium in the long-term created more jobs. The market responds with good government policy. It tries to fill in the gaps. Unfortunately the V might be more severe here in America. We are not going to take care of the people are retraining them who are on the wrong side of this trade. But not to sound too much like
βI don't know a polyana here. I think it's a pretty interesting time to be coming out of collegeβ
and looking at different opportunities. If that also was coming out of Princeton and you had two co-founders. Now granted you're widened privileged in a little bit snooty. But okay you come out of Ohio State or you come out of Michigan State which are both really good schools and you are outstanding at leveraging AI and you're going to start a senior you know some sort of you're going to help people find the right seniors facility for pop-up or Nana and you're going to charge
them 200 bucks instead of the consultants charge 5000 and then you're going to negotiate using AI agents the best deal possible. I think that's a really cool little bit. I just made that up in 30 seconds. I mean it's a really cool little business and people are going to fill all sorts of niches and be able to find capital and do really cool interesting businesses. If I was coming out of school right now I'd be saying I'd want to learn AI and I'd want to understand health care and I'd want to
I'd want to cut a swath through the middle of those two things.
I think it's important to ask what could go right. I think the the thing that a lot of people
feeling right now is that it's this incredible cognitive dissonance because the argument for what
could go right as you say is actually very very strong and we've heard it from you we've heard it from me and we've heard it from many others. At the same time the argument for what could go wrong is also quite strong because this technology is incredibly powerful and we don't know what's going to happen. We are at such a time of incredible uncertainty that having a position on either side
βboth of them are very reasonable and that's why I think a lot of people would maybe listen toβ
us right now and say oh they're talking out of both sides of their mouth it's like yeah because there are different futures here and there are different probabilities to those different futures and it's that's what we're trying to pulse out right now what is the probability of it going right what is it what's the probability of it going wrong they're both decent probabilities now framework that I would add on to this I think going forward. I think it is the investors job
to ask what could go right because as you say if you are an investor and you spend all your time
thinking what could go wrong you're going to get absolutely destroyed. If you never put your
capital to work if you've never take risks if you always think that tomorrow's going to be doomsday you're just never going to get rich that's just the reality so that's why we're asking this question this is an investing show this is a market show if you want a chance of getting
βrich sorry you must ask yourself what could go right you have no other choice if you want to justβ
sit and stay you know never increase your income never increase your assets then okay go for it and just always ask what could go wrong having said that I also think that it is the government's job to ask what could go wrong it's the regulators job to be asking that question what could AI do to job displacement how many jobs couldn't theoretically get rid of if that happens what is going to be our response to that how do we regulate this technology such that we don't walk into
an economic disaster and the thing that I am noticing right now is that the investors right now seem to be obsessed with the question of what could go wrong which is a bad idea and the government seems to be obsessed with the question of what could go right the government seems to think everything's going to be fine don't worry about it hands off everything's going to be great we're not even going to include any policies in fact we're going to create policies that make sure that
no one else creates any policies and that is a very very stupid idea because we should be asking that question it is a legitimate possibility we should be thinking about things like UBI we should be thinking about a worker reinvestment fund we should be thinking about what would happen if the unemployment rate actually was 10% not if you're an investor I don't think that's a very wise move to assume that but if you're in government if you're a regulator I think these are good things
βto assume you should be ering on the south side of caution and what we're seeing in governmentβ
is not that at all the fact that we're talking about this means convinces me this is not going to happen as it's played out because it's the shit you're not expecting to get to you there if you people other than a really intelligent CIA analyst was thinking oh a bunch of young men from Saudi Arabia are going to hijack planes and slam them into buildings that just wasn't something we were worried about that took down the economy for a brief time the sub-time crisis you know Michael Burysup
but not many people saw that including the smartest financial people in the world were layering on layering and all the risk models did not turn this up we did not see a virus shutting down the economy and taking GDP down 31%. It's the shit you're not worried about tomorrow you're too young to remember this we spent a year masturbating over Greek sovereign bonds we were convinced the Greece was going to take down the EU and the global economy you know 2% of the GDP of Europe and
we just sat here obsessing over it there's a phenomenon when you worry about something a lot it doesn't happen because you start to prepare for it so I just don't think by virtue of the fact that we've done so much catastrophizing around this we don't worry about it the thing that is actually a bigger issue in the markets right now is the following AI and the capex and the
incredible opportunity of AI in the excitement around these things which I think is probably
overhyped as well to the upside has created real economic growth capex and buoyed the market right but a sclerotic industrial policy that makes Europe look more competitive and more decisive where we have an administration saying and thoropic you got to do what we want even though you're a private company you've got to do what we want we're not putting in place laws around guardrails around how companies should behave we're just going to do one ops based on this guy's blood sugar level
Oh the administration is going to get to decide who gets to acquire home and ...
a stake in one ship company and not others oh we know how to run a steel company
βwhen the deepest pools of capital become more shallow because foreign investors don't knowβ
who the fuck they're waking up to next because there's different laws that might be imposed on them what has happened in the last 12 months despite the massive investment and success of these tech companies the American market has underperformed every major market why because the dollars got much weaker because people have less faith in the full credit and faith of the United States government our ability to pay back and stocks because of fiscal irresponsibility
and the entire world is re-rooting their supply chain around us including the capital they invest in these companies and one of the reasons that people were willing to invest so much capital in the US is because there was a rule of fair play and we have lost that and people are rotating
βout of US stocks that is a in my opinion a much bigger threat to our economy when we have decidedβ
that with a third of the world's GDP we can control it whereas we used to be the operating system
through cooperation rule of law and standards and consistency where we were the operating system for two thirds of the world's economy and everybody wanted to invest in the US do you think big Canadian pension funds are thinking how do we invest more in the US right now fuck you all invest in olibaba or invest in mistrol or whatever it is or salonus and germany they're like we need to diversify away from this asshole and you're seeing that show up in our valuations
in our market that is a in my view that is the existential threat here to a decline in our
prosperity is the price of products go up when people either ban our products or stop buying
our products shrinking our markets for exports they impose reciprocal tariffs human capital stops coming here which reduces our uh the quality of our teams and institutions don't want to invest in everything we do here taking the PE down of everything reducing or increasing our cost of capital making us less competitive because of absolutely head up your ass sclerotic lurching irrational industrial policy from our government in my opinion it's not the terminator
that it's going to kill us it's a fucking clown called the president will be right back after the break and if you're enjoying the show so far send it to a friend and please follow us if you haven't already support for the show comes from delete me delete me makes it easy quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable this is not a one and done service delete me sends you
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back with property markets present Trump used his 107 minute state of the union to paint an optimistic picture of the country declaring what he called a quote turn around for the ages he touched on everything from inflation and immigration to health care and voter fraud but not everyone feels so positive about it so let's move past the rhetoric and let's dig into the numbers we're going to take a look at the data on inflation on markets on GDP and employment and we're going to reach a consensus on the real
βstate of the union so scot I think maybe we should just start with some of the untruths that weβ
that we witnessed in this state of the union just so that we're all on the same page here about
how America is doing and what's true and what isn't so I think the first big lie that we need to
just dispel immediately is that we secured $18 trillion of foreign investment in 12 months. I have no idea where Trump has gotten this number from that is literally more than a half of our current GDP. His own website says that the number is 9.7 trillion which is also a made up number this is like based on nothing as we've said none of these are actual deals they're just verbal commitments and they explode the numbers by a hundred percent to the upside and the downside depending on the day.
I mean that number is totally bogus so that's the first thing. The other thing you said is that
βforeign countries are paying the tariffs not true multiple studies have been done 90 to 96 percentβ
of the tariff burden is falling on US firms and US customers he said the prices are plummeting downward
not true prices have risen nearly 3 percent inflation is going up gases below $2.30 in most states
199 and some also not true no state had an average below $2.37 and only two states average below $2.50. Those would sort of the big lies so now that we agree hopefully that those are not true let's start with your reactions at the state of the union. And that was mostly nothing burger. I thought if I try to cleanse my biases I thought it came across as robust it didn't say a lot I didn't think it was that. I mean it felt like not much to me. I was waiting for some sort of
announcement there was no new poll at building policies he teased tax cuts we didn't see that. It was 75 minutes there was 20 standing evations there was 80 applause breaks I feel like these you know I feel like Congress burns more calories clapping and actually legislating totally great. Okay so unemployment to be fair unemployment is pretty low inflation is down from its peak but it's still above where it was when Biden left office GDP growth is positive but it's especially
concentrated around a small number of companies. He's sort of asking everyone to stare at AI and big company capbacks and then take off your glasses when you're looking at your grocery receipts right. So I don't know I feel like it was a master class and cherry picking. I have trouble getting through the whole thing so I didn't I actually thought the the Democratic response from Abigail's spam burgers. I don't know I thought that was really strong
actually have an idea there that I want to pitch you but like the data the data was sort of real the spin was much realer and again I just don't think we're dealing with the real issues here
That is the deficit.
folks you know Democrats we're going to have to cut spending Republicans we're going to have to raise taxes but let's get to it you know who is it who are the adults in this room. Is anyone actually
ready to address his own we we need a billion doses of GAP1 drugs to try and bring the average
cost to health care from 13,000 per person down by $400 a year for the next 10 years and address the deficit because all roads lead to entitlements would lead to health care anyway no I feel like I would love to just write this speech and just look at all of them and say okay who's ready it's is there anyone in the middle here ready to actually address these issues so you know I had I have
βtrouble watching it at this point I just think it's so insane and these at one point I think he saidβ
that we brought an $18 trillion in investment right where the fuck is even getting these numbers it's like so if it felt like it's an earnings call whereas investors of the Republicans and there's no SEC he can't get in trouble you can just throw out numbers it's a great great analogy it'd be like if
Jensen Huang said our earnings were up 11 million percent there's the greatest earnings quarter in
history and and our backlog we're going to grow this we grew our revenues 440 fold it's honestly a great point that should be legal implications for lying about the numbers of the economy during the state of the union address if we have legal implications for Jensen Huang saying the wrong thing shouldn't exist for the president it's a really good point that's an interesting statement on America and that is we're much more protective and value investors more than we do citizenry right
βso I think that was the most insightful thing we've ever said that that wasn't comes to getβ
to South by Southwest it's a really good point yeah let me just bring it down a bit quarter pounder and sorry about that he's I mean just to run with this analogy between the state of the union address and an earnings report I think that's exactly right there's a level of spin here on cherry picking which was actually quite deft and I think you actually have to give credit to whoever wrote that speech
for navigating all of these issues pretty well but to your point he's asking America to believe that everything is going really great for Americans and that gas prices are coming down and that food prices and grocery bills are coming down he's asking everyone to believe that when that is simply not true I'm consumer sentiment among Americans right now is absolutely tanking most Americans two
βthirds of Americans agree that he is completely bungled these tariffs I think most Americans areβ
realizing what tariffs are doing to consumer prices what they are doing to their grocery bills that is they're making their grocery bills go up because as we've discussed the tariffs are being passed through under the consumer and so it's consumers that are paying the cost of the tariffs they're also we're also seeing that a lot of Americans think we just don't agree with them we don't approve of how he is handling the economy and yet he's asking in this state of the union
for us to just say things are going well look at this number over here look at this number over here look at the fact that our GDP has grown look at the fact that our quote economy is roaring like
never before and then as you kind of point out not acknowledging that the reason that is happening
is because AI is adding a full half percentage point to GDP growth right now because America is essentially becoming a giant bet on AI the reason that we're probably going to see some more growth in in the next year is as you say because of this unbelievable deficit spending which is going to reach two trillion dollars next year that's a level that we've only reached during recessions and during pandemics so the underlying situation and picture isn't great and he's asking us to
believe it is great but the most important point is the one you brought up in the previous section which is that you look at the stock price we are underperforming every major index every major international market right now by a pretty significant margin and you look at last year where yes the S&P rose 16% which was good but you look at the all country world index minus the US which rose 29% which is almost double the return of the US not even dollar adjusted what was
our big prediction the end of twenty four rotation out of US stocks and so rotation out of US and then the big question was is this going to continue in twenty twenty six or was all of the juice
Squeezed out of that trade in twenty twenty five it is continuing year to dat...
I world minus USA index is up ten percent so all of these other stock markets I mean they are outperforming and you can go up there on on the stage and you can say look at the stock market we're doing well but as we all know the all of the staff is relative when you compare us to the rest of the world we're actually not doing so well which is surprising because you would think
βthat if we own all of the AI companies which we do why aren't things going well I think it'sβ
to your point the capital flows are adjusting people are rotating out people are looking for an excuse to sell these companies and to get into something else and that's a real problem for him and for Americans but again it doesn't matter how great the barbecue is if it's raining outside
like the atmosphere is in the context matter and you can't there's some amazing companies in
Latin America that have grown their revenues and profits every year for the last ten twenty years and all of them are flat or down because you can't outrun flows and the flows out of Latin America have been one way to other markets until last year so great companies made with exceptional Mercado libera just went down you can't you know market dynamics trump individual performance and what we're seeing now because again of a lack of faith in our current administration and
βindustrial policy and a degradation of the rule of law I think you're seeing flows out and withβ
respect to the state of the union I loved what I think was the Jonathan Hight I forget he said this about Mark Zuckerberg and meta you know they they would they all right what's happening with teen depression and they would they would side of much of fall state or lies or they would it would clear that they were hiding data their own data about how much mental impact and which it was creating on young people especially girls and this one person said something that really struck me
me with France is how again and that is when all the mistakes are in your favor they're not
mistakes they're lies and I constantly use that quote when I I check out of hotels I never check
my bill but whenever I do I find mistakes the mistakes are never in my favor it's always oh you wait didn't you check in a day no I didn't check in I checked on Wednesday I checked in on Thursday oh it says here you had you know six gingers no I didn't touch somebody there's never a mistake where they forget to charge you and I would say this I'm like when all the mistakes are in your favor they're not mistakes they're lies and every single mistake in his state of the I mean the lying
is gotten so out of control that it's been normalized that it's been okay we've just given up on fact checking and the North Korean or the Soviet Politburo do my here we'll just stand I mean the thing that reminded me of is a North Korea and in Iraq under who's saying when they'd have these meetings or say to the unions you got the very real sense that if they were not seeing jumping up and applauding there was a chance it might be strapped to a cannon and executed the next day and that's
βnot much of an exaggeration that's how it felt it's okay I don't give you a Republican or notβ
you're smart people you do math they didn't bring eighteen trillion dollars back to the U.S. a new investment these tariffs aren't are making America I mean these guys know this is
fucking bullshit but they're also scared I just can't figure out what is so amazing about being
an elected leader because I do think he has the power to primary people but is it just that awesome to be in Congress like what what is so incredible about being in Congress that you're willing just to prostrate yourself like this but yeah it was it was a series of meetings and it was my idea is the following did you see the Democratic response from Abigail Sandberger and okay so Abigail Sandberger 46 former I believe she was either in the NSA or the CIA just a former
intelligence officer just such an incredibly impressive person exactly who you want a government and she's a 75th governor of Virginia she did the response this is my idea I called and I called a Democratic senator who's running for president so he has to take my calls because he thinks I'm going to give him a lot of money but I'll text him and say I have an idea and he's like oh name drop him and ruin his campaign he calls me right away he's four guys they have just they have to listen to me is awful
anyways so I'm like I got an idea for the next so 30 years ago the halftime show was irrelevant everyone would took a break no one cared no one really cared about Michael Jackson or whoever well
They'd had it well I remember my fair was they had a Disney halftime show onc...
favorite Disney characters and now the halftime show is more important than the game I would make a real effort over the next few years to make the halftime to make the
βDemocratic response more important than the Republican response I'd rent an amazing venueβ
I would hire Jay Z's rock nation give me huge budget 10,000 rabid hot young Democrats
have fucking amazing music lead up to it her speech was so awesome and I'd have lights
in sex because the moment it comes after the majesty and the sex appeal of the rotunda it just feels flat sex it up sex it up make it super cool super overproduced and turn it into the halftime show that's more important because the contrast if you read her speech it was outstanding it was fact checked it was really solid she went right for the jugular and everything she said was on point they did her a disservice by not wrapping it it was all chip no salsa all substance they
need to sex it up anyways that was my big idea we'll be right back and for even more markets
βinsights sign up for a newsletter at propertymarkids.com/subscribeβ
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berufliche Weiterbildung escape in detail in our meetings we're back with profg markets netflix has dropped out of the one of brother's discovery bidding war that clears the path for paramounts to make the acquisition just days after
submitting a revised 111 billion dollar offer one of brother's gave netflix four days to counter
but the company declined saying the deal was quote no longer financially attractive the transaction will still need regulatory approval but for now paramount has come out on top
On the news one of brother stock fell 3% paramount climbed 7% and netflix pop...
Scott paramount David Edison the son of Larry Allison they all the winners right appears they're going to be the ways pending regulatory approval initial reactions to paramount beating netflix. yeah well depends what you mean by winners so let's talk about winners and losers here and the top of the list in terms of winners is Warner Brothers discovery shareholders
βand that is David's eyes love i i think he was a pretty i don't know mediocre operatorβ
he's an outstanding investment banker i mean they literally got if either the elecens or sarando sever thought you're going to bid more than 25 bucks a share for this they you know six months ago they for the set no fucking way that comes on worth it this is a company that's gone from a low seven bucks a share to thirty one uh with no change arguably the business has gotten worse over that period so he he was he put on a masterclass and his bankers and how to get testosterone involved
and competitive dynamics and literally the the every possible sent on the table has gone to Warner Brothers discovery shareholder so they're the biggest winners a close second in terms of winners is Netflix shareholders because what this shows or tets around us specifically what this shows this tad is a disciplined operator he can put out press release saying we have an obligation to shareholders at some point no deal makes sense he was able to show he could do a deal he handled it well
βi think he acquitted himself well and they're doing a good operator too and that is they walk awayβ
when no longer you know every deal makes sense it's some price and no deal makes any sense at a certain price so him walking away from from from this deal they say if i think the total consideration was
approximately $120 billion and then and we predicted this the stock is up 10% Netflix on the news
so with a 350 billion dollar valuation they they got a they got 36 billion dollars for walking away and increase market cap they're gonna get another two and a half billion in cash for the break-up fee so if you look at the total consideration it's say 120 billion plus the kind of 40 billion free gift with purchase in terms of stock appreciation and the break-up fee you know Netflix got 160 billion dollars technically for not doing this deal and i mean we're getting to the point where
Netflix could take the money that they're registering from not buying Warner Brothers and the increase in the stock price and now they're in striking distance of potentially buying Disney Disney's
got about a 200 billion dollar market cap so for you know close second in terms of winners
tits around us and Netflix from showing discipline and walking from a deal to made no sense in addition if i were them and i were more macavalan i would start firing up my lobbyists and start questioning this deal lawsuits everywhere and i would try and if not scuttled this deal but the lay it and it's gonna put most of Hollywood into a sense of stasis and that is i have it i have a deal at Netflix during this period it was sort of i don't sound
hold but there was a lot of insecurity around what they were going to do supposedly cbs and paramount are in a bit of like flocks right now for a lot of different reasons so the insecurity here is going to be pretty dramatic meanwhile tits around us can say to his creative team just for shits and giggles what could we do what else could we do with a hundred and
twenty billion dollars could we own sports could we become the biggest sports network in history
and go out and buy a bunch of rights a limpics and a fell could we decide that we're going to be the most dominant streaming media platform and all of southeast Asia Latin America and Africa over the next decade i mean they're just they've got a lot of firepower now that they weren't going to shoot at this so Netflix the second biggest second biggest winner here um let's talk about and
βthen i i think you'd have to say paramount because this isn't existential must do for paramountβ
if paramount hadn't gotten this deal and gotten some scale they would have been in the company that paid overpaid for a sub scale paramount so they're only way out here is scale now can they ever show dad a return on this investment you know i don't know that remains to be seen but at least
They are they are a scaled player in Hollywood whether they decide to use a i...
the requisite scale to compete with the bigger players i agree up to a point that Netflix is coming out when here because that shit that price is totally ridiculous for the company as you point out this is a company that was trading at seven to ten dollars a share is recently as a year ago and now the company is coming in decided to buy it for thirty one dollars a share that is ridiculous and the reason that they're willing to do that is because it's the son of Larry
Ellison is the founder of Oracle who is a multi-multi-multi billionaire and that's the only
reason that this is even possible in the first place is you've got a guy who doesn't really know
βwhat to do with his tens of billions of dollars and that's how he's putting up the money forβ
this deal which is why he's willing to pay such an irrational price for it and it would be done for Netflix to pay that much money and they said that they said that this is an irrational this is a ridiculous price we're not going to pay having said that though we should also acknowledge that since this all unfolded Netflix stock is still down it's up since in the past you know month or so but remember this this all started to go down before that this started to go down
in December from the time that the Netflix was announced as or revealed as one of the potential buyers of Warner Brothers the stock has slid from a hundred to around eighty-five and they have lost
almost two hundred billion dollars in market cap since that moment now is that purely because of
the Warner Brothers deal I'm not so sure I think there are probably some other forces to play that too but I it's hard for me to to position Netflix as a total winner coming out of this considering the fact that before that before Netflix and Warner Brothers were even in the same sentence Netflix was trading at above a hundred dollars a share right so it depending on when you time sort of the deal was revealed whether it was before Netflix and it deferred they are off
kind of twenty-plus percent but it just is press release that they're walking the stock's up ten
βpercent in the pre-market that the winner of the week or the month for sure I think we're in aβ
agreement here and that is as soon as the market looked at this deal the market said they're overpaying and one of Netflix's advantages is similar to Apple and that is their culture is so strong
internally and they build such an incredible machine they aren't very acquisitive because as
demotor and points out two-thirds of acquisitions don't succeed one because testosterone gets involved and they overpay and becomes about winning and losing and two the acquire overestimate synergies and underestimate the difficulty of integration so I mean this would have been all hands-on deck of the most talented people or managers that Netflix trying to figure out how to incorporate how to like how to get Frankenstein to move into your house and get along
with your three kids who are you know you know Frank is different and he's going to be a big presence here and if it doesn't work the whole household is going to come down so at the parents you know the baby sitter's the grandparents everybody was going to be focused on wrong metaphor here on how to integrate Frank and now it's just going to be a lot of fun to say to Bella Vajara who's arguably one of the better content minds and all of Hollywood
we just got we just freed up a lot of money what what are your ideas here so let's go through
βlet's go through the losers I think first and foremost the biggest loser is the creative communityβ
this combined company they have paid so much for these two companies when I say they the elephants for paramount and I want to brothers there's no vision that's going to increase revenues to the extent to justify this the these prices they paid they are going to have to focus on the expense side Larry Ellison is one of the biggest players in AI I think using analogy in the first Star Wars Obi-Wan Kenobi is on the Millennium Falcon and has to sit down because it feels
a disturbance in the force and that disturbance is that millions of people died in an instant when Darth Vader orders the Death Star to destroy the planet Alderon and you said he hears a scream and then nothing I think the last night when this deal when Netflix walk I think you heard a scream from millions in the creative community that they're just the Union's WGA in Saga after are literally too fucking stupid to realize what just happened it's the image of Death's
around is feeling the stuff in the force taking a seat having a breath Ted was a Jedi so
Say what you want you know Hollywood bitch is about Netflix having too much p...
likes Hollywood I was at the BAFTA Awards he shows up with a bow tie he likes creatives the guy ran
video store change he was the manager of a video rental chain he likes movies he likes the creative community Netflix may have outsourced much of their production overseas arbitraging geographically but he believes in big production make-up artist gaffers editors actors you know he's sort of
βhe is he is part of the community you think Ellison gives a shit about I think he's going toβ
literally say to his son all right okay this has been a lot of fun get feeling glad it's your legacy this company is trading at a crazy multiple VBita you got to grab revenues high single digits you got to cut expenses 10 to 20% within 24 months where are those how are we going to do that dad without dramatically reducing the top line we're going to use AI and instead of putting out
30 movies at 115 million each we're going to put out 15 movies at 30 million each using this new
cool thing called AI and I'm not saying it's going to work it might be much AI Slop but that all roads lead to the following Sag Aftra and WGA grab your fucking ankles you are about to see so many people in your unions get so road so hard and put away wet you're going to see a destruction and human capital it's going to make jack dorses announced me yesterday look soft and cuddly the other losers I do think that the American public in this would have been true of whether Netflix or
βparamount one I think this consolidation and concentration is not good for America whether it's Netflixβ
owning Warner Brothers I compared it to like Walmart owning LVMH or with paramount we're going to have CBS CNN paramount and TikTok in the hands of one entity I don't think that's good I'm one of brothers and HBO and HBO Max and TNT and Discovery and MTV and Comedy Center like the list is quite insane fair points you know the people at CNN this morning it's like it's like a wake over there right now they're so freaked out how to say having said that I'm not as worried people have made these
existential comments about free speech in America I find I said the security I'm like if the Washington Post and CNN go away America's going to be just fine because I find I think what you find is the two things between us us and what I would call more fascism are one midterm elections into whatever effort to its distributed media and that is a lot of people Jake Tapper, Anderson Cooper, Danabash, Michael Sir, Smirconish they're all incredibly talented if they need to they're just
going to go start their own media companies go to work for Park, Axios, their own podcasts it's not as if their voices are going to be silenced and the means of production here has gotten so expensive and inefficient I pulled up I did an analysis of our listenership in the core demographic versus CNN, CNBC and Fox and I can show that more people more people in the core demographic listen to property markets than listen to any CNBC show and we do it at a fraction of the cost so
this is you're going to see there will be some high profile exits from CNN they'll write out their contracts because quite frankly they're overpaid from an old day you know a days gone by where
people would pay $80,000 for a 30 second spot to convince you that opioid induced constipation
those days are gone but I don't think it's what I you know CNN at least the morale there that's a loser but I don't think it's the existential threat to media you think it's a really
βinteresting point because I think that aligns with the way Hollywood sees paramount and theβ
Ellison family at this point and also the way the journalistic institutions like CNN and all of the, you know, legacy journalists view David Ellison and Ellison family and that is they don't like them I mean the pushback against CBS on his decision to bring in Barry Weiss and then leading to Anderson Cooper leading sixty minutes I mean more and more it seems as though the predominantly more liberal community that is entrenched in these institutions they do not like David Ellison
We just saw that photo that went viral of David Ellison hanging out with Lind...
state of the union and now he's going to own all of Hollywood and what does it mean if all of Hollywood decides they hate their new boss does that mean that they just don't want to work with them anymore what does it mean if all of Hollywood realizes that their new boss is going to try to fire 50 to 6 to 70% of them what does that mean for the remaining 30 or 40% left over are they going to say screw this we don't want to work with you we don't want to be on your team does that mean that they're
going to all shift over to Netflix which as you say actually has become entrenched in Hollywood in
βa way where I think Hollywood respects and likes Netflix in a lot of ways it was kind of the savingβ
grace of Hollywood over the past decade and I think that is something that is probably going to be an underrated force in the markets and that is just how unpopular David Ellison is becoming among the very community that he is trying to be a part of he wants to be in the Sunset Boulevard Hollywood club he wants to be in the newsrooms at CNN he wants to be working with these people and they're all probably going to say screw this guy we don't like him the Ellison's rod and bought the free
press basically was an aqua hire for Barry and Barry was in her team I actually think and they hate her and the creative community hates her because she's again there's a bit of a bias there she's a Republican I think they've been a little unfair I think I think the free press is actually very innovative and did a great job however Barry has created a score just a series of own goals whether
βwas spiking a CBS story you know there's she's come across a little bit as a propaganda vehicleβ
or doing the president's bidding and a center-left creative community hates that there has been a series of unforced errors on the part of the Ellison's vis-a-vis Barry Weiss that have basically died their hat black and kind of confirmed the creative communities worse fears the idea of it'll be really interesting to see if they say Barry Weiss is now in charge of CNN because that's when I do think you see a hair on fire now the notion that they're all going to walk out tomorrow
it's just kind of it's just sort of a fantasy because and I'm not exaggerating if you were to name ten of the top TV journalists anchors I have probably had offline substance of conversations with half a dozen of them and it goes something like this I realized that this ship is sinking and I'm thinking about doing a podcast or starting you know they're all like want to figure out the next thing and I have an open conversation I'm like okay how much money you're making and then like this
I'm like how long should contract I'm like don't go fucking anywhere you're overpaid yeah what are the numbers yeah for my Googling around it's something like like high high single digit millions yeah
the tier two ones and I won't name them because we'll get upset get one to three million the tier
ones get five to ten and there's quite a few that make between ten and twenty million a year like Sean howdy makes the most like twenty five yeah and so they all have these visions that they like I love the idea being a control of my own content and starting a sub stack and a podcast and a youtube channel like yeah you'll make sixty grand and in five or six years if you work your ass off or work harder than you're working now and some of them do work hard most down you're going to get
to a half a million or a million bucks a year because you're very talented and people like what you do but be clear don't go anywhere you're going to take it so the notion that somehow they're
going to break their contracts and leave where they're getting paid two to three million dollars
to show up at four p.m. and work to 8 p.m. and host a show that's got two hundred or three hundred thousand viewers it's like they're hoping you leave the question becomes how long can they
βremain overpaid and I think that is something that daddy Allison's going to come in and sayβ
this is fucking ridiculous why you paying this talking had ten to twenty million dollars a year cut it well there's only a few of those but I'll give you an example Chris Wallace who is at CNN he was making seven million dollars a year and CNN said I would imagine the conversation with something like that's Chris you're an legend we're love you we want to keep you we're going to take you from seven to one million and Chris goes away I'm Chris Wallace and he leaves
I heard from Chris Wallace the last 12 months so nobody ever thinks they're overpaid I've never
had anyone say to me in a bonus meeting I've had them say wow thank you this is great or that's generous but they've never said you know what the moons of lined up and let's be honest I'm over compensated right now you always anchor off this is your natural tendency you look at the year
You made the most money and you think oh that's how much I'm worth no it's no...
and almost every one of them is making a lot less money then they were a couple years ago right and then they go to new media and some do it really well like Don Lemon and Chris Cuomo have really made an effective transition to new media but I bet they're making a third of what they made in the heyday of cable news they're making good money and they're building
βenterprises that they own and I think they'll make more but I bet I bet a guy like I bet guys likeβ
Don and Chris were making five to ten million bucks a year and they are making substantially less
than that now and they are the most successful of the ones who got off the island they've built really really interesting little media companies that are growing or they're participating in kind of this new media ecosystem but this industry it's going to be I think it's going to be chaos in the next twelve to twenty four months okay let's take a look at the weekend we'll see the unemployment report for February we'll also see the unings from ASD space mobile target and
broad calm Scott give any predictions yeah I made it I think there's real opportunity I don't recall these business development private capital hedge funds Apollo 14 to 70 times earnings double digit earnings growth let's say you am growth and trading it what feels like or trading at a
multi-year low T.P.G. is trading at a third below kind of fair value estimates an unbelievable
fundraising I know some people who work there they are just a jargonaut in terms of their fundraising
βwhich is the kind of the rock capital for what they make money on I think their currentβ
price and reflects pessimism more than growth trajectory even blew out I'm doing a basket of these things it's got a 70% dividend yield in some the market is discounting private credit fears and I think there's a growth versus valuation mismatch all three are growing AUM and recurring fee revenue the sector multiples have compressed due to private credit liquidity fears that I think are overblown and market pricing the market is basically pricing risk more aggressively than
current earnings trends justify and on my thesis and the reason I'm starting to buy these things is that compress multiples plus durable fee growth plus strong fundamentals equals potential upside relative to the broader market so anyways my prediction is that a basket blackstone blew out T.P.G. and Apollo is it's going to outperform the market this episode was produced by Clay Miller and Alson Weiss and engineer by Benjamin Spencer
or video editor is Jorge Coltty our research team is Dan Jalon is a fellow cancel crisper down here and me as for vario Jake MacPherson is a social producer drew borrowers is our technical director and Katherine Dylan is our executive producer thank you for listening to Proftry Markets from Proftry Media if you liked what you heard give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.
βokay well I think you guys are doing a bang-up job super excited to hang out in South by Southwestβ
we should definitely do a zoom while we're all down there what's happening is um I'm really excited to see you guys support for this show comes from tasty trade there's two types of traders out there the ones who settle for the status quo and the ones who push the envelope tasty trade is the platform of choice for the latter with tasty trade you can trade stocks options futures and more all in one
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