Strict Scrutiny
Strict Scrutiny

BREAKING: SCOTUS Deals Another Blow to Multiracial Democracy

3d ago40:367,525 words
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Kate and Leah are joined by Democracy Docket’s Marc Elias to break down the Supreme Court’s shameful assault on multiracial democracy in its ruling on the Voting Rights Act case, Louisiana v. Callais....

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Today we got the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana vs. Kelly. The case about the future of the voting rights acts, protections against racial discrimination, in redistricting, spoiler alert, that future is over. It's just about as bad as expected, after all written by Sam Alito. We're going to quickly walk through the implications on potential followed of the case,

with help from Mark Elias, chair of Elias Law Group, and founder of Democracy Docket. And then we may add a few additional beats on the court's reasoning, such as it is. Welcome back to the show, Mark. Well, I wish I was coming back under a better circumstances, but I guess I'm glad to be back. It's rarely the case in this line of work, but today is an especially bad one.

You know, Leah, let me introduce a judicial realist, and she was right. Careful. That's T-shirts printing in 30 seconds to the sounds you're hearing right now. But she indeed was right then, and we'll continue to be right. Anyway, Mark, super grateful that you're joining us on a day like this.

Let's just quickly remind our listeners of the facts of Kale, they're pretty well-known. The state of Louisiana through districts that allow black voters to select.

Preferred candidates in one out of six districts, even though about one third of Louisiana citizens are black,

the math wasn't mathing unless districts were drawn to walk them out of power, maybe ding ding ding ding. Because courts said that math violated the voting rights act, Louisiana was required to draw new districts that complied with the VRA. It did so. The districts gave minority voters opportunity to select another candidate, and that compliant math with two black opportunity districts was challenged as unconstitutional discrimination. And in Kale, Sam Alito said the Boding Rights Act properly construed did not require Louisiana to draw a new district because it's initial map, locking black voters out of political power was very legal, very cool, very demur, and very mindful.

So, okay, Mark, we are legal nerds as are used, so we are definitely going to get into the courts reasoning. But this decision is also just super significant for our multiracial democracy, and kind of we wanted to start there with the question of impact.

Can you talk about what effect the decision is going to have on maps, distric...

Yeah, so first of all, this was a cynical decision as the Supreme Court could possibly issue.

I mean, to be honest with you, it would have been much more intellectually honest for them to just say section two of the Voting Rights Act is unconstitutional under whatever theory of unconstitutional. The idea that the conservatives and the majority on this court are saying that they are properly construing section two is literally them saying black voters can have districts, as long as they vote for republicans. That is essentially the holding of this. So what does this mean for democracy? It's a big setback, and we need to be honest about that, like, you know, this was the gutting of the last piece of the Voting Rights Act doing work.

And it was the provision that particularly was important because it applied nationwide. A point I might add that the chief justice himself made when he wrote the opinion striking down section five of the Voting Rights Act and shall be counties said don't worry.

This section two still very vital applies everywhere. Don't worry.

And then he said watch this. So it's look, it's bad for a multiracial democracy, it's bad for democracy, like what what has happened here is that in a series of court cases, the Supreme Court has said partisan jerrymandering just fine discriminating against minority voters now just fine.

As law and if you want to impose a minority majority district or voting rights act district, it needs to reflect the partisan impulses of the legislature which are just fine because partisan jerrymandering just fine.

So what we are left with is that in state after state where republicans control the entire process they have the legislative control and the governor general process. The governor control they will now gerrymander on explicitly partisan grounds that will insulate them in one direction. They will trample all over the voting rights of minority voters with near impunity. And they will look and say, look, we met all the Supreme Court's tests under the voting rights act. That is why it is so cynical, Kate, because it would have been better for them to just say there is no voting rights act.

But rather to hang that what they are now going to say is lawful under the voting rights act is an absolute abomination. So it's an abomination and it's wildly cynical. Is it also politically strategic? I mean, you know, you think about comparing a decision like this to dogs, which said fourth rightly, we are overturning Rovers' Wade and that really galvanized an important electoral and popular reaction.

I think it's entirely possible that in decision that said fourth rightly, we are actually overruling on the grounds, the constitution, the last remaining vestige of the voting rights act.

That might have spurred a real response. And I hope this one does too, but was it kind of framed the way it was in order to reduce the chances of that kind of response and push back. Yeah, I think that's exactly why they did it this way. I think exactly that way. And I think we can't, we can't allow them to get away with that. You know, I'm old enough, Kate, and this was very controversial at the time. It's hard for people to recognize this was actually controversial at the time. In 1993, there was a debate in the Casey decision, whether the pro choice community ought to just say this is overturning Rovers' Wade.

And by the way, I was in the camp of saying, yeah, we ought to just say what the Supreme Court is doing here is fundamentally altering Rovers' Wade in a way that is going to allow for its eventual chipping way in overturning. Now, you know, that doesn't mean I was right, you know, it stood for a much longer period of time than I thought it would. But I think the risk that we face right now is those of us in the pro-democracy community take the bait and say, well, you know, at least they didn't overturn the voting rights act.

No, they overturned the voting rights act.

And I think Justice Kagan also called this out the attempt to basically depict the opinion as doing something other than it did.

You know, she said, it's opinion basically presents itself as understated, even antiseptic.

And the majority doesn't announce today's holding as Albert Nullafine with voting rights act. When it did, I mean, this could be the most significant Supreme Court race-related decision in a while, just given, you know, dismantling the number of districts, electing representatives for minority communities that could be at stake. You know, we've talked about this before, but just to remind our listener is next to Ethanapolis, Professor at Harvard Law, voting rights expert. Estimated that somewhere about 70 congressional districts could be stripped of protection under the voting rights act.

And that's just the number of districts in Congress. Mark, I know we've talked about this decision, and this decision has been talked about in terms of what it might mean for the 2026 midterms. Florida seemed interested and potentially taking this up and drawing even more districts. What might this decision mean for the upcoming midterms? All right, so Florida is, as we speak, drawing a new map.

And they are going to add or try to add for more Republican seats. Now, I think in Florida, just at a political level, I think that's probably backfire on them.

I think actually the congressional delegation knows that, which is why they'r...

I think I think Ronda Sanchez is auditioning for something else with Donald Trump. And like he figures, he won't be blamed if this winds up being a dummy mander. He'll get the credit for doing the here and now sounds very familiar in Trump role.

But I think your broader question, though, is the right one, which is, what does this mean for 2026? What does it mean for 2028?

In 2026, look, I think there will be, obviously, it'll affect at least one seat in Louisiana, maybe two. Perhaps it impacts a seat in Alabama, maybe maybe not, you know, I say that because there's another VRA case that's kind of percolating before the court.

Beyond that, you know, Republicans needs to be careful in two directions. The first is at a political level.

Like they are facing an unpopular electorate that doesn't much care for them. And, you know, it's not like when you redistrict voters go away, right? I mean, these, these minority voters have to go in someone's district. And I don't see a lot of Republicans in these states raising their hand to say, "Oh, yes, please take my 65% Republican district and make it a 52-55% Republican district."

In this political environment, so that may put a little break on it, but I think the real break on it for 2026 is just the logistics and the practicality.

I mean, you know, the federal law requires that military and overseas ballots go out 45 days before a primary, and 90 days before a general, and like those are hard federal deadlines that like states can't mess with. States have already had primaries, and, you know, there's a lot of talk, you know, on the right about, "Oh, we'll just hold new primaries." Let me be honest with you, and I can, you can share this with your Republican guests if you ever have any.

If they think they get to just disenfranchise a bunch of voters who have already voted by saying never mind, they're going to get sued and under the conservatives analysis in Boston,

where they adopted Justice Scalia's language about not essentially about undermining the foundation of democracy and confidence and elections by after the fact throwing out votes. Like, like, I don't think they're going to get away with that, at least they're going to get sued if they try to get away with it. So, I think it'll be relatively modest for 2026. I think, 2028, you know, I hear estimates all over the place. In your time, says 12, fair fight, round early, say V.A.gram, says close to the 30, next step of theapolis, says maybe it's 70.

Like, I, I just, it's going to be a lot of seats that are going to be in play, but, but I want to offer you one piece of hope. You know, after I'll be county everybody said this is going to cause Democrats seats everywhere, and I went and I sued Virginia and I sued North Carolina saying, well, it turns out if Section 5 wasn't a rationale to draw Bobby Scott's district. If wasn't a rationale to support drawing the state legislative lines of Virginia, if it wasn't a rationale to draw to Jerry Mandir, blacks and two districts in North Carolina, then I guess it wasn't a rationale.

And, and I sued and I won those cases in the U.S. pre-emported led to the creation of additional black districts and additional Democratic seats in both states. So, I guess when you're thinking about, you know, the prospect of future litigation, you know, just as Cagan did dissents said today's decision makes Section 2 a dead letter. Justice Thomas seemed to enthusiastically agree saying, even though he would have said no challenge to redistricting should ever succeed. This decision basically put an ed to what he called the disastrous misadventure. You know, what does this decision do to Section 2, and relatedly, how does that interact with partisan Jerry Mandir, in which seem to be both part of the courts reasoning, and also what it envisioned to be the future of American democracy.

Yeah, so first of all, I just have to say because you guys will appreciate this.

You've got, you've got Justice Alito saying, we didn't do anything here, this was just like nothing. And then you have Justice Thomas was like, thank God we over, thank God we did it. He's a dumb, right? The guy can't keep it under wraps. He's like, no, this is what we're doing to you. Like they did, they didn't work that out, just like between them. Look, I think for Section 2 litigation, it's going to be virtually impossible to bring Section 2 cases successfully because in order to do so, you're, you know, you're going to have to say, you're going to have to meet the political objectives of the legislature.

So effectively what this means is that if you want to bring a Section 2 case in Alabama on behalf of black voters, you need to draw a map in which the black voters vote Republican,

which the idea that we are hinging minority voting rights on a partisan outcome is an absolute catastrophe and insult, I mean, I can't use word strongly enough. So I think the Section 2 will no longer be a vital tool. Like you might as well require plaintiffs to show that the two theory is real, just while you're at it. That's right. So I think that the, I think that the, the two tools or the two things that that remain out there is a real partisan gerrymandering, which, you know, conservatives have taken from a necessary, non-justiceable evil, right? We don't like it, but G's, we are, we the Supreme Court are powerless to do anything about it.

We, we looked for a test and you, you know, we just couldn't come up with it.

Like it's a line, it was just too complicated for us. Robert's right remembering Richard does say distasteful, maybe worse, like he is, he is very explicit about the disapproval, but sorry, Mark, you were to stay fast forward to this. Now they have turned it into a positive good, a constitutional entitlement, a highest value, in fact. It is, in fact, now a traditional word of speech that we are too valious in the process. So that's going on, but that doesn't mean that state's state courts will do that.

And, and so I think that there's going to be a lot of attention to state constitutions and state state processes around partisan redistricting.

And then the second, which you haven't mentioned, is there is still an inherent tension.

And this, this goes back to the cases that I brought after Shelby County, there is still this inherent tension between the intentional discrimination line of cases, the racial gerrymandering line of cases. And this, because like does anyone think that when Republicans are going to draw a map, you know, they're not shuffling black voters based on their race. Of course they are. Like, they don't want Democrats in their districts, but like what they really don't want are black Democrats in their district.

And, and if that sounds weird to people like, we were able to prove that in the post shall be county litigation, we brought where you looked at these neighborhoods. And it was a professor from Stanford who did this analysis. I can't believe I'm liking on his name, Robyn Jonathan, Robyn, I think did this analysis. And you, you, you, he plotted out on graphs and you'd look at these neighborhoods and there'd be like a group of let's just call them white liberals.

Okay, but good Democrats, but white next to a neighborhood of black Democrats. And the, the Republican legislature was taking the white Democrats, not the black Democrats.

And you know that in the south in particular, that is going to be a dynamic that is going to leave them open to those challenges. Now, the question is whether under Alexander yet another case where they kind of like, you know, you know, try to limit this, whether they're going to say, well, that's okay. You know, it's okay if you are intentionally discriminating against black voters in that way. Well, whatever they're going to do. Art of that was very wonky. No, very wonky.

No, but I mean, I think that sort of the point is that they have not resolved all ambiguity in this incredibly complex body of law.

Nor have they foreclosed all possible avenues. Now, I wouldn't put it past them to do that down the road.

But you're saying that the evidence of even even if they do impose, if they haven't posed an intentional discrimination requirement, there may be enough evidence to actually succeed in making out those claims in future litigation. And we know enough to know that you mark a list are going to be dog and bringing any bringable and winning any case out there that can be won. So I want to, I want to, yeah, if there's any note of hope that you can leave our listeners. Well, it's not a note of where we are. Okay. We'll take that. We'll take that. Yeah. So the lawsuit that challenged the Louisiana map was, in fact, a racial jury-mandering challenge.

Right. The Supreme Court didn't have to decide this question. The Supreme Court was not asked to decide this question. The Supreme Court ordered re-argument because they wanted to decide this question. So there's a lot of debate right now, and I know the New York Times published some papers involving the shadow docket. But there's a lot of debate about like this calling balls and strikes, umpire thing. This was a case that nobody asked the Supreme Court to decide, and the Supreme Court ordered the parties to re-argument to decide it.

Yeah. And that is a procedural piece of this that I don't think has got enough attention. It is the only other instance in my little area of the woods, but you guys are the experts that where I have experienced this was citizens united. We're literally what the Supreme Court was asked was whether or not pay-per-view movies on cable systems were covered by the campaign finance laws. That's literally the question that was post them. And instead of answering that, they ordered the parties to answer a different question to brief and argue a different question, which led to citizens united.

And it feels like the conservatives are giving up even the pretense of we are just deciding the thing that is litigated before us.

And I think that's really- that's like another layer of insult to this injury and another threat to where this court will go if they can just not just pick and choose the cases they want to hear.

But actually, bit pick and choose cases they weren't asked to hear. Yeah. Well Mark, we know today is a super busy day for you. We so appreciate you taking the time to speak with us and to provide both our listeners of Joseph Reality and Hope. So thank you so much, Mark. Thank you.

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And after you purchase, they're going to ask you where you heard about them. Please support the ladies of strict scrutiny and tell them that you heard it from us. So we are going to spend, as promised, just a little bit more on the reasoning, such as it is as more kind of suggested. What Justice Leedo wrote in this opinion basically is if a racial community consistently votes with the party, then it's okay to deny that racial community political representation because that's just partisan gerrymandering and it's awesome.

The reasoning used to justify this requirement is that a plaintiff in order to succeed in a section to challenge under the voting rights act has to show it was both possible to draw a map with an additional district for minority voters to elect the candidate of their choice and a map that retained the same partisan composition. As the original map, if the state was trying to do partisan gerrymandering kind of means, racial minorities could have an additional district as long as they selected the same candidate that would have one in the state's initial maps.

That's not a political opportunity district, but again, as Mark was saying, basically this says minorities, you can have your own district if you vote Republican.

Right, and the idea of a political opportunity district is one that I think the court is pretty clearly intending to deal a death blow to that's not that's not actually something that a statute.

Requires or even permits legislatures to pursue in the way that we have understood political opportunity districts, which is kind of one of the sort of sneaky and cynical things about the opinion that Mark was alluding to that it really does completely upend. Section two jurisprudence and pretends that it does not do in that so as Mark I think mentioned, but maybe we'll underscore it for another minute it's an anti democratic decision it has anti democratic reasoning and it the reasoning is basically that.

Anti democratic behavior and in particular kind of partisan gerrymandering is okay it is legitimate it is indeed a constitutional right so let me just quote from the opinion here. Considering the constitutionality of a district scheme courts must treat partisan advantage like any other race neutral aim a constitutionally permissible criterion that states may rely on as desired. We also identified as a significant development that the courts very jurisprudence had to take into account this court's decision in route to versus common cause so again, route to is a decision that only seven years ago said that federal courts are not going to intervene to stop partisan gerrymanders, but the political system should respond could and should respond in other ways and that in any event partisan gerrymandering was distasteful just not something that courts could actually police are super entend and we have something wildly different on the page in this opinion.

Yeah, here's what Elito had to say about Rucho quote the upshot of Rucho was that as far as federal law is concerned a state legislature may use partisan advantage as a factor in redistricting.

That's not what Rucho said it just said non-justifiable federal courts can't remedy them not that they're consistent with the constitution much less something state legislatures are so entitled to do they get to do other illegal potentially illegal things in the process. And yet this Supreme Court injected partisanship in partisan gerrymandering into all aspects of the legal test for showing voting rights act violations. The jingles test that is to establish a voting rights act violation has three steps.

At the first step is where Justice Alito said plaintiffs have to show their alternative map would achieve the same objectives including partisan objectives states would at the second step Justice Alito said plaintiffs must control for party affiliation. And then the kicker the third and final step which is about the totality of circumstances he says courts must focus on one thing quote intentional present day voting discrimination and quote.

Even though the voting rights act was amended so that the law did not just pr...

And the court has also made proving discriminatory intent impossible which was basically the Texas redistricting case where DOJ told Texas go after majority minority coalition districts.

Based on the legally incorrect claim that the voting rights act prohibited them and the Supreme Court said that's not sufficient evidence of intentional racial discrimination. Now Alito maintained that he wasn't overruling any of the court's precedence he was just kind of updating them giving them a makeover.

Which honestly is very consistent with both originalism and textualism which are right all about updating statutes to take a new account subsequent developments in the world.

So yeah, right up there in Justice Scalia's reading law you know I'm pretty sure that's like the first entry. It should be you know the makeover was more like Chris Jenner's recent facelift not great, but Justice Kagan you know said what the majority gives us today is not an updated framework. It is its own thing deserving of its own name which they suggested the collay contrivance I think the collay contrivance is good I like it in you know other Alito kind of reasoning that we should highlight he wants to join John Roberts in proclaiming that racial discrimination is essentially over so he writes quote.

That's social change has occurred throughout the country and particularly in the south where many section two suits arise. He also says the Robinson court also relied on the sort of history of intentional discrimination by Louisiana officials in the decades before the voting rights acts passage. It cast aside as irrelevant the lack of evidence the black voters have faced intentional discrimination in recent years that analysis had its priorities backwards the 15th amendment which the voting rights acting forces is not designed to punish for the past but works to ensure a better future.

The first of section two must therefore be on current conditions not on decades old data relevant to decades old problems once again originalism we figure out what the 15th amendment means by looking to evidence in the past like six to 12 months that's original. I just like calling my face because section two suits rely on current data because they measure the current extent of racial polarization extent of residential segregation.

chairs, right? Justice Alito just pretends otherwise. And, you know, the passage that

Kate read from the clay opinion sounds exactly like Shelby County's infamous pronouncement that things have changed dramatically in the south, which Justice Alito quoted in clay. He just thought that slapped and had aged amazingly. Justice Alito also said that the constitution really only allows there to be remedies for intentional racial discrimination, laws or policies

that have the effective disadvantage racial minorities. Those are basically cool. So he writes

quote, "the focus of section two must be enforcement of the 15th Amendment's prohibition on intentional racial discrimination." While that interpretation that it's his interpretation

of the voting rights act does not demand a finding of intentional discrimination,

it imposes liability only when the circumstances give rise to a strong inference. That intentional discrimination occurred." And quote, "First of all, obviously we call BS on this claim that the interpretation does not demand a finding of intentional discrimination." That's exactly what he is requiring. Did you also catch his kind of casual reference to the quote limited authority that the 15th Amendment confers? Yeah, of course. Of course. He just goes out of his way

in this opinion to declare reconstruction, ain't no thing, right? Didn't really allow Congress to do anything? No biggie? Indeed. And that kind of sort of minimizing Congress's role, aggrandizing the court's role, sort of, is energy that permeates this opinion. So it pretty clearly does something that Shelby County maybe implicitly did, but didn't explicitly do, which is extend this city of Bernie versus Flores decision that just wildly judicial supremacist opinion

that says, "We courts not really, you Congress get to decide what the constitution means and

hear the, you know, 14 and 15th Amendment's." And it basically, you know, is doing that proclaiming

its own supremacy in deciding what the 15th Amendment means in the course of overrolling Congress's decision about how to enforce reconstruction, which, like, I guess I forgot, but I thought it was Congress and not the court that in the constitution was given the power to enforce the reconstruction amendments, but it must be. Congress is a cook. Constitution is for cooks. Congress is a cook, right? Justice Alieta, Justice DeClairs. These are going to be what they're going to be.

Yeah. Justice Cagan, of course, is speaking truth to power, summarizes the court's reasoning as availing itself, again, of the tools used before to dismantle the voting rights act, untenable readings of statutory text made up and impossible to meet evidentiary requirements, disregard for president and disdain for congressional judgment. A few just short additional notes before we go. One is just to re-emphasize, resist and strongly push back against efforts

To minimize this decision that suggest could have been worse.

rights act, or the court even said, compliance with the voting rights act constitutes a compelling

interest. No. That's how Alieta attempted to spin this. Indeed, that's how he characterized his own

ruling. My preferred framing would be something like a judicial coup or a revolution against

multiracial democracy and for white supremacy. You know, second is this decision has to be understood

as part of a trilogy of decisions in which the court effectively ended the voting rights act. The law that made the country into a multiracial democracy. Justice Cagan characterized it as part of a set that included, as we noted, Shelby County versus Holder. After that came the 2021 decision burn of it for a sufficiency, which was about how section two applied to voting precondition challenges, you know, challenges to laws that are about whether people can vote, or their votes will be counted,

the court interpreted the law, you know, by making it much harder if not impossible to challenge voting preconditions. Justice Cagan's dissent sights and article by professor Recossin showing that since burn of it, there have been zero zip successful challenges to voting

preconditions under section two. And the last piece, as Justice Cagan described to him,

her dissent, is section two as applied to redistricting. That's what this decision takes aim that.

You want to read a few more passages from Justice Cagan's dissent or anything else? Let me just say maybe one more thing. So I think in addition to connecting this opinion to the other VRA opinions, the court is handed down. I think what Mark said about Citizens United is actually also really important in that this is both a case where the court overreached really badly and just deciding to change a question in order to give itself an opportunity to supply an answer

it wanted to give. But also because I think Citizens United, I think, has had kind of in the public imagination kind of remarkable staying power. It's still polls at like 75 or 80% of

Americans disapprove. There are constitutional amendment efforts sort of underway to this day.

And I think that that this opinion too should have that kind of effect. And I think that what you said about resisting minimization frameworks is just so important. And I think that linking this

opinion to, again, both VRA and Citizens United, I think is critical. So yeah, maybe let's end

with a couple more lines. Yeah. Well, so one more thing that you said that. I also link it to the Texas redistricting discussion. Yes. Because what the court is saying is you can use race in partisan gerrymandering, but you can't use race to comply with the voting rights act. Yes. And that is it's at both of those things. Yes. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So so that actually is the story of what happened in Kale, you know, except no alternative explanations. Okay. So to end

with you more Kagan lines, she says, I dissent. The voting rights act is or now more accurately was. One of the most consequential efficacious and amply justified exercises of federal legislative power in our nation's history. I dissent because the court betrays its duty to faithfully implement the great statute Congress wrote. I dissent because the court's decision will set back the foundational right Congress granted of racial equality and electoral opportunity. I dissent. And maybe one more.

Okay. So the VRA was born of the literal blood of union soldiers and civil rights marchers. It ushered in awe and spiring change, bringing this nation closer to fulfilling the ideals of democracy and racial equality. And it has been repeatedly and overwhelmingly reauthorized by the people's representatives in Congress. Only they have the right to say it is no longer needed. Not the members of this court. I dissent then from this latest chapter in the majorities now completed demolition of the

voting rights act. If those quotes didn't capture it, like this is the anti-democracy court. And if this decision doesn't kind of get people to realize that Supreme Court reform has to be part of democracy reform, I'm not sure what would. Please send this podcast to your local democratic representative because what this decision shows is Congress can enact all of the voting rights protections that it wants. And it won't matter if this court nullifies them or invalidates them.

And maybe just one last asterisk, which is that if and when the chief justice writes the opinion for the court in the birthright citizenship case, saying the president cannot nullify the 14th amendment by trying to nuke birthright citizenship, remember in sort of all the celebration of John Roberts institutionalist that John Roberts gave this opinion to San Toledo. He joined the opinion and the opinion nullified the 15th amendment and the law that made this country into

emotional, emotional democracy. And try to bear that in mind and let it temper your celebration of that opinion if and when John Roberts pens it. Indeed. And look, we are only at the end of April and wow, we are already getting really bad decisions, which means by the time we are at the end of June, help us. And you know, if you would like to, I don't know, participate in our processing

Coping, a little catharsis with us.

June, you can catch us live at the historic Grammarcy Theater, on June 20th in New York City.

Take it to your on sale now, grab them while you can at crooked.com/events.

All right, I'm going back in your earholes for a regular episode on Monday morning.

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