Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

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I'm Sean Fettasy. I'm Amanda Davin. And this is the big picture a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions. Today on the show, we are going through all 24 races to make our predictions of who will win. And who should win at the 98th Academy Awards?

Are you ready Amanda? Have you made your picks? I'm done. I'm locked in. I just made my final decision and wrote it into the doc right now.

What if I convinced you to change your pick? As I was saying to Jack before we started recording, I'm not that impressionable. We'll see you out there. Programming note, on Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards live on Instagram at 3pm PT 6pm ET, where we will talk about these predictions.

The red carpet last minute thoughts a lot more will be a lot of fun and encourage you to stay tuned. We are planning something funny.

“And then immediately after the telecast we are coming to you live on Netflix to break”

down all the awards. That's live on Netflix right after the Academy Awards, we will be there for you. Also, I'll be at the South by Southwest Film Festival interviewing Steven Spielberg on Friday. Yeah. Very normal week for you.

I'm doing my best. I'm hanging in there. I really need the airlines to keep it together, which I would hope I didn't change that this is not wood. Find some real wood.

Knock on it. Yes. Maybe I should just run. Doston and run back. That's probably the safest bet.

But I will be there. I'm excited for the keynote excited. Talk to Steven. Come say hi. If you see me in Austin.

Speaking of Spielberg, we got a new look at disclosure day, which we'll break down right after this. This episode of The Big Picture is presented by State Farm, sure, being an expert and movie trivia is impressive. You know, it's even more impressive, being smart about saving money.

And a great way to do that is by saving when you choose to bundle home and auto with the State Farm personal price plan, bundling, just another way to save with the personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts and

savings, and eligibility vary by state. Okay, I'm ending up. Yeah. I've seen the new disclosure day trailer. Yeah, not.

Yes. You are abstaining from further info. With all respect to your close personal friend, Steven Spielberg, which, listen, by the way,

before we get to the trailer, I just, it's an amazing picture.

Oh, yeah. Really genuinely very good, flattering of both of you. It's just, like, printed out, put it on a Christmas card. It was, yes, I met Steven before our conversation. We hung out for a little bit.

Yeah. It was, it was, like, time to tell. I was very happy. Yeah, but that's, I'm saying, you know, it captured a moment. It was lovely.

Really, we could make a big picture Christmas card. You know? Well, yeah, we gotta get you in. No, it would be fine. You just, it's the two of you, and it's like, I'm a parent.

And you just sign it, you know, happy holidays from Sean, Amanda, and Steven. Sure. And then on the back, you were like, 20, 20, six was a big year for the big picture. We went live on Netflix, we got to go to Ken.

We found our third chair in Steven Spielberg.

Well, that's not gonna head of ourselves, but so you're not, you're, you're, you're, you're all respect to Steven Spielberg, to disclosure day, to, to, to vital theatrical experience, to Michael Moses and everyone at Universal, who are like, working very hard. Yes. I know enough.

I don't wanna know any more. Show me the movie. Okay. I did watch it. You're gonna have to hear me talk about it in a moment.

Are you gonna spoil it? In a way. Are you gonna, okay. I'm just gonna float some, some additional things that have been shared with us. And this trailer and how that's interesting to me and how I'm, why I'm so hopeful about

this movie.

“And I think before all we really understood was that this was an event movie of some kind”

that almost certainly involved alien life forms, right? We heard the clicking sound coming out of Emily Blunt's mouth. We got this sense that Joshua Connor had some information. The trailer reveals the DoConner is kind of an Edward Snowden-esque whistleblower figure who has got his arms around some data.

He's responsible for collecting that data and analyzing it seems like. And now he's gonna let the world know what he knows. Which I guess is that aliens are on this planet, maybe? Yeah. Which is kind of fascinating.

And I think the thing that the trailer showing us now is that the movie is much more grounded in the real world. There's implications of the Roswell, Area 51 cover up in the trailer.

of this is a incredibly funny given that we're just like a month removed from Barack Obama. Accidentally revealing his knowledge of UFOs. Generally, about to ask you, is Barack Obama doing like gorilla marketing for disclosure. I don't think that's the case, but it was a wonderful moment for this movie because, you know, there is this sense in our culture.

And the movie is clearly tapping into that that we're not being told everything. And the movie is using crop circles and alien flying through the clouds that may or may not be. Or alien ship, I should say that may or may not be a UFO or a UPA, as they're known, or a UAP, as they're known now.

“So even that, like, that's their own, what does, what does that mean?”

UAP unidentified, AV air, aviatory, something like that. You can look it up while we are while I'm riffing here. The movie is clearly giving us a little bit of invasion of the body snatchers too. And I think there's a sense that Emily Blunt's character, something is happening to her, that she doesn't realize, not that she's an alien, but that's something has overtaken

her. And those images that we saw on the first trailer of that seems sort of like almost like a hallmark CGI of like the glowing home and the elk entering the house and the bird that those appear more to be like memories of her childhood and not like a linear sequence in the events of the film.

So that there's a reason that they sort of look like that. Yes. Again, this is speculation based on a tune out trailer. I'm a bit trailer.

One thing I've learned in my life, never doubt Steven Spielberg.

Yeah, same. There's one really cool thing in the trailer. There's no chair of the big picture of that. Your boy Colin Firth is in this movie. He appears to be some combination of Pete Hexeth and Elon Musk.

I'm not going to say anything else beyond that, but he uses, I'm just going to say, bio-virtual technology to appear in Eve Houston's home and control her body. And it's a very fascinating sequence and feels like kind of classical Spielberg where it's kind of very annoying, kind of, you're on the edge of your seat observing what they've created. And it's spooky, like it's very effective and I think it indicates that like is there

some sort of tech world/governmental mass conspiracy going on?

“Coleman Demingo, I think is going to be this sort of like key conspiracy drumbanger.”

You know, the guy who's like, hey, everybody, please, we need to know the truth. That's pretty much all I got and I'm feeling excited. The movie is obviously operating in a close encounters, but 50 years later, context. And that's cool. I'm exciting and full circle fun, exactly, and fun to delve in with Spielberg.

Yeah, yeah, even in talking with Steven this week, like thinking about the arc of his relationship to this genre is something that I think will spend some time on when we talk on Friday.

And, you know, those movies just kind of shaped absolutely amazing.

I taste in the genres that I'm into and how I think about the world. And American, if not, global filmmaking for the past 30 years? Yes, and I think also it's so fun, I mean, I'm, you know, I'm spoiling a conversation I haven't had yet, but like in 1977, closing encounters is one of the more optimistic looks at this time, which is also concurring alongside, you know, Alan Bacoola movies.

And now I feel like as time has gone by, Spielberg is becoming more suspicious. Yes. Of how the world works. Less optimistic. Less open minded.

And you can really track it over time, shifting around 2000.

“I think that's exactly right, this century has been very much about some unease with how”

power operates. So, very excited for this movie, and very excited for Friday. Okay. Are we able to, when will we be able, those of us not in Austin, when will we be able to consume that conversation?

Will we be able to? Yes, on this feed. Okay. I don't know when that's going to be. Okay.

Hopefully soon. We're working on it. Uh, don't spoil it. Okay. I just wanted to make sure that for everyone who can't be in Austin, I've gotten some emails

being like, "Hey, so I'm going to be in Austin. I will not be in Austin." Do you wish you were? Um, I listen. I had a great time the time that we went.

I am really concerned about your turnaround time, and Jack's turnaround time. And I'm just imagining the two of you in a van, like driving from Austin, like all the way back to Los Angeles overnight. Is it even, would you be able to make it like time-wise? Yeah.

Is it less than 48 hours that drive? I don't know. Yeah. Less than 48, I think so. Yeah.

I'm not worried.

I've never been more locked in in my entire life.

And then that's our first big picture documentary, which is the two of you in a bus, trying to make it back for Oscars now. Well, I can't speak for Jack, but assuming that I can get this cleared by TSA, I will be bringing my Mandalorian jetpack with me as a carry-on, and so I'll just off-fly back if I have to.

Jack, we can't. There are people who can help out back here in the office, in case you don't make it right, Jack. Absolutely.

The Academy Awards were happening on some of that. Yeah. That's why I need you back. I'll be back. I'll be back.

It'll be fine. Expectations for the show. Simple, opening question. Do you think this will be a good show? Yes.

Okay. Hey, dude. Here's what we know. Limited.

First of all, here's the most important thing, Conan O'Brien, who hosted last year

is returning. And as a wonderful host, we are, um, acclites of Conan. We grew up watching. I like the vibe. It's a good combination of safe paper hands, old, like skilled television presenter.

And, you know, throwing like a fun elbow in here and there, but never in a mean way, just in sort of a sharp smart way. So I'm looking forward to that. Um, we know that there will be two original song performances at two only. Yes.

The two good ones. Two good ones and the two good ones that have broader appeal, golden is going to get its moment. Everyone in my house is really excited for that. Um, my 18-month-old son can say golden now.

Wow. So, and he, and he requests it in the car up, up, up.

“So it's really, we're late, but I think a lot of people and a lot of younger people would”

tune in for that. I agree. It's got to come in the first 90 minutes of this house. And I also, like, I don't know if it'll be in the same tone. Because I'm just kind of, but it does seem like one of those moments where you can use

the spectacle of the show to, to bring some energy. Do you think we'll open the show? I feel like that's possible. Hmm. It could.

Because if you think about the theme of the song and the lyrics of the song and the idea of, like, announce it. We're going up, up, up. It's our moment. Yeah.

It feels like a good opening moment for the show. Not only when, remember when Justin Timberlake sang the troll song at the beginning, the telecast, like, five years ago, which sounds ridiculous, but that was actually a good way to open the show. It gave us a lot of energy.

It was a famous person right up top. Yeah. I do think they need to kick off like that. Sure. I think that the performance of Golden will be superior to Justin Timberlake doing the

troll song. I hope so. What's, what's that song called? Is, is Anna Kendrick? It's called Let It Be.

Yeah. Um. Um. Okay. That was funny.

Oh my god. Think about. Can't stop the feeling. Can't stop. Can't hear right now.

Uh, um.

“Every once in a while, after unlistening to, like, good kids music, Spotify, algorithm, tries to give”

me that song. It's so hard. No, for me. My children will not learn about that.

We've created an incredible de-markation line around trolls.

No trolls content has come into our home. It's not. I'm not a fan. I think that's great. One of the weirdest episodes we've ever done was when me and Rob Harville had talked about the

trolls movie during COVID. I have completely forgotten everything. Oh, yeah. Which was like about pop to miss him? Well, it was both two.

Uh-huh. Troll. That was troll. The troll tour. Which is another troll juror.

Troll juror. Hard, just very hard for me to say. I also learned that moral burrow is hard for me to say. All burrow. Yes, because a woman came into my Pilates class in a moral burrow, red sweatshirt.

And that's like, this is sick. It's really funny because I think of you as a, as a gal, a young gal who, like, really went to finishing school, you know. Okay. Yeah.

For a reason, there's some consonants that are struggled. I'm an American. Yeah. But elicution. That's my skin.

The R's are very challenging for me. And like across languages. Interesting. Yeah. I don't know.

“Maybe that's why you went French and not Spanish.”

That's how they're like R. Sure. I mean, I can like, I can roll it. But like, their French, like, the, the, you know, is really tough. That's good.

That'll be our thumbnail. Discussing. Yeah. Well. Back to the show.

I think it's possible that golden. That would open the show. Yeah. I lied to you. It feels like a big centerpiece in the middle of the show.

And Miles Dayton will be performing. Yes. He will. Along. Many other, I think Brittany Howard will be a part of that as well.

Sounds like Jamie Lawson will be on stage during that as well. So I think it'll be a pretty fun. Is Misty Copeland confirmed? She is confirmed. Which is.

And I'm an amazing. The sub tweet because in addition to. Misty Copeland is being one of the most celebrated American ballerinas.

She was also one of the first people that posed in a Marty Supreme jacket.

Wow. Interesting. Yeah. And didn't she use the date F1 driver. Who's the most famous F1 driver?

Who is Hamilton Hamilton? Thank you. Did they date? I don't know about that. Okay.

Who? Louis Hamilton is quote unquote dating or not dating. It seems a little based on like who needs. Okay. Photo app.

I just mean this team has a unique relationship to a lot of the best picture nominees this year. Why? Because Hamilton is a producer of M1. Yes.

I have Google, Misty Copeland, Louis Hamilton. And I'm not finding it. Okay. I miss spoken. But you know what Misty Copeland has done?

Amazing. I got it. I'm excited to see her. Yeah. Presumably she's not like playing the banjo.

She's going to dance during that performance.

I will be performing train dreams from the film Train Dreams.

So we'll go live on IG with that right check. That'll be good. Okay. Cool. Other things we should expect.

You know what? I was on Bill Simmons's podcast this week talking about the show, the telecast. We talked a bit about the immorium. Yeah. A long time fascination of his and we talked about what they might do.

And he pitched an interesting idea, which I hope they do, which is, you know, we had speculated that there might be an entire moment dedicated to Robert Ripper because we know Barbara Streisand is going to perform presumably. Memory. We heard.

It was reported. It was speculated with some knowledge. But he said maybe there should be four or five individual breakout moments for Robert Redford, Diane Keaton, Robert Duval, Gene Hackman, Rob Ryan or we have a number of very venerated veterans of Hollywood who passed away in the last 12 months.

I think that'd be cool. Yeah. It would be appropriate. The number of people who have been who are connected to those individuals, who have been reported to be coming back to the Oscars,

that they would be at least individual moments as opposed to being cramped all together, just from a time perspective. I agree. I know you don't care, but I would love to see it like a real clip real. Like a two and a half minute clip real for each person.

That is just like here is the totality of these people. All these people who lived into their 70s and 80s, you know, who worked for 50 years. This is what they put on screen. Let's be clear about my feelings about clip reels.

“I think I don't mind and even enjoy a well edited montage,”

which is what you are describing. Yeah. What I think is fruitless and often counterproductive

are the four second acting bites that show up of people just screaming at their top,

but the top of their lungs contextless before. That's not acting. That's not communicating what these performers did so well. We agree to disagree. I have no idea what you are talking about.

I think that's insane. Run time of the show. How long you think we were doing this ourselves? Because we were trying to figure out when we would go live on YouTube. That's right.

337. Last year's telecast was three hours and 50 minutes. Well, this would be longer. You think this would be shorter? Well, how many performances did they do last year?

I think around the same number. Yeah. They've been scaling it back, which is good. Almost four hours. What I would describe is a slightly more subdued Oscar than this year's will be.

“I think there's a lot of energy around the race here.”

I don't know if the ratings are going to be higher and I'll ask you about that in a second,

but does feel like one battle and centers are two very widely seen movies relative to something like a Nora, which nominated last year. So I don't know. Four hours feels in play, but they also added a category too. Yeah, it's a good point, Jack.

That is 24 categories to give out. Okay, then we're going to have to start thinking about like snacks, pacing over the course of the night. I want to do sugar fish. Can we just do sugar fish? Oh, for dinner.

Yeah, absolutely. But then this is four hours. Yeah. And then you got to keep the blood sugar out. We'll get a Mohito going for you, don't worry.

Ratings up or down. I think there was slightly down last year. I mean, no one's ever gotten richer by predicting that the Oscars ratings would go up. So you're right, but golden centers are two big flashing. Check this out thing going on.

I agree. I mean, I think it's going to honestly be flat. Like, well, yeah, like a matter of decimal points. Yeah. I think you're right.

I don't know. It's kind of a quiet time in sports right now. And that's something else I was thinking about. There's not a whole-- there's not a big HBO Sunday night show at the moment. There's not-- it's not competing with really anything right now.

Okay. Especially if the USA is eliminated from the World Baseball Classic.

“Did you see what happened last night in the World Baseball Classic?”

I did not know that the World Baseball Classic was happening. What an absolute fiasco. They lost to Italy eight to six. The United States manager believed they had already moved on to the elimination. Right.

So there's a suggestion that maybe he set the lineup based on the fact that they thought that they had already advanced. And now based on the outcome, I'm sure the outcome of Italy and Mexico will happen by the time people listen to this. But anyway, just as a baseball fan last night, it was like, what the hell is going on here? Who's on the US team?

Well, quite a few people. Yeah, the United States. The United States Heart Press, Harper, Aaron Judge, some major stars. Okay. Neither of whom came through in a big spot last night.

Challenging times. Anyway, moving on. Here's an interesting precursor question to our predictions. How many Oscars will sinners win? I have an answer based on my predictions.

Do you want me to give that? Or that seems like spoiling it. More or less than two. More. More or less than three.

Okay.

“What about how many Oscars will one battle after another win?”

I didn't count.

But I did sort of in the shower this morning.

I don't know an exact number. More or less than three. More. More or less than four. More.

And intriguing. Yeah. Okay. My theory, and maybe this is, you know, a good segue. We were, we were very anxious last night.

This is an exciting year. A really cool year. And also for two people who don't like to be wrong. Public or private. A vexing year.

And so we were texting last night at like 9.45.

About various categories.

We had made it a decision in which we didn't know what to do. And we both shared the sentiment that it's just, it's not adding up in a way that makes sense to us. That's right. The, the aggregate is not aggregating.

The balance, as you said, is not balancing.

“And I think some of that is because we used our long, you know, our decades of Oscar”

Nerdism. And what the Academy has done before. And how these races usually play out to, to shape how we make our predictions. And I think if you in about half the categories, that's useful. And otherwise, I think it's going to be a really different year.

And I think a lot of the norms that we expect. And a lot even of like the precursors or the, the bellweathers. Mm-hmm. Are, are wrong or shifting you another way. That is so.

That's it. So I had to make my own piece with what my ballot looks like as a whole. Because at 10 at 9.45 last night when I was like, I really need to turn my line down, which is like an hour of noff, you know, I can't be this anxious about it. When I was looking at it, I was like, this doesn't.

There's not an internal logic here, according to my internal logic of what the Oscar should, should be and what a ballot should be and what the quote unquote Academy does. And I had to let it go, you know. I admire that. I have obviously, I think you and I are similarly organized in our mind.

“But I think the way that I live my life is even more organized.”

And I'm a spreadsheet person. Mm-hmm. I'm a presidential person. I'm very rooted in the history of the Oscars. As much the recent history as the distant history.

And I'm we're going to talk about the distant history today because of some of the things that could come up based on some of these collisions. And I'm married to an actuary. You know, her father is a math professor. Her sister is a math professor.

Like, I'm very interested in the sort of statistics in the data and the history of this. But also that there is feelings involved in this kind of voting. And this year, the war, so to speak, is between vibes and precedent. And what the two trains colliding. And they are represented in some ways in two distinct films.

Now, I wouldn't say one film is a vibes film and one film is a data film. But just what's gone on in the last six months. And we've been talking about this for a very long time. And I feel justified in how much time we've devoted to this stuff. Because it's been interesting this year.

For the first time in a while, it's been really, really interesting.

I find myself right for the predictions, feeling not very brave. That's what I'll say. Okay. I am the child of two lawyers. So for me, precedent is just something that keeps you from having fun all of the time.

It is a legal tool to live it the possibility of life. And I do also think that some of what informed my thinking is that in the past few years, as the Academy has gotten bigger and more international. And just the sheer numbers and the number of people. It moves less like one solid group of people.

And in fact, it just has become more chaotic. And it's more and more different types of voters and interests and preferences. Yes, the homogeneity has been washed out of the Academy. At least relative to what it was 15 years ago. Yes.

And that's certainly true in terms of race, nationality, gender, ish, age, ish, you know, like they're all of them. I was wondering, I think they're still predominantly like older right people. How many. This is a random thing I was thinking about last night.

How many Gen Z members of the Academy do you think there are? Zero? A hundred? Just, yeah, I guess. He's Jennifer Lawrence, Gen Z, no.

No. Who are the youngest people? Emma Stone is not Gen Z. Is Rachel Ziegler in the Academy? Did she get added when she--

That's a very good question. Rachel Ziegler, are you in the Academy? A Academy member. Let's Google this right now. I would guess fewer than a hundred.

I bring this up for a reason.

Probably not. Probably not. I would guess.

You'd be surprised the number of people who have done a lot of work or not in the Academy.

In fact, I know a nominee who's not in the Academy. And he's going to be on this show later this year. Oh, exciting. Interesting, fact. I bring this up because Oscar says, "Course is Selberg."

It's not Selberg. I assure you. Steven Spielberg, for the record, won the Irving Falberg Award, the honorary award that is not given out every year. In 1987, 39 years ago, he won the honorary award.

He won the honorary award. Schindler's List and Jurassic Park. Yes, before he won Best Director. That's crazy, Tony. He wasn't even 40.

Anyway, I ask this because the discourse is very noisy this year. And there's a lot of discussion about what's actually happening. And it does feel like there is a flood of people who have only been paying attention to the Oscars for say 25 years or 22 years instead of 50 years. Okay. And that could be an advantage or it could be a disadvantage in terms of what's really happening with the race right now.

“How much of what's happening is real and how much of it is online?”

Yes. We don't know. We don't know. We stand a thwart history saying, "I don't know. But I'm going to try to make a prediction."

Okay. So let's start. Okay. 24 categories. We're going to go through every single one.

Period. We'd start with some general individual film categories. It's fun. You've paced this well. Thank you.

The first categories animated feature film.

nominees are as follows. Arco, LEO, K-pop, demon hunters, little omelette or the character of rain. And Zootopia too. Will win and should win. Yeah.

You can go first and maybe we'll alternate back and forth. Okay. Great. Will win. K-pop demon hunters.

And should win. And I have now seen all five. And I just want to let you know that my version of hell is watching little omelette or the character of rain with a four year old. Who just keeps you like, who is that? What?

I told you my story about this. I was going to ask a single question. No question. So now when you rent them, both Arco and little omelette are available to rent, which we did. But we run into the dub version.

Oh, I see. Well, feral is in the Arco dub.

“Oh, she was like, hey, I think many famous people are.”

But there's a, that was a voice moment.

Anyway. No, my son blessed him fully became Jussie Buckley in Hamlet. At the end of. Um, but like, I'd be like, what's going on for a little omelette? And it was a true name.

Did you watch Arco? No, I, I, he went to bed. Oh, can I watch this? I think he might have liked it. I think it would play Alice and watch it either.

Yeah. Anyway, should win K-pop demon hunters, which is dynamite. It's a banger. Yeah, we match on that. That's those, those were both of my picks as well.

It is, I guess, kind of interesting. That's utopia too didn't make any kind of late breaking push here because. Because it stinks. It's not just disagree, and it's also really, it's really liked. And it's a huge hit.

That's true. Listen, my son wanted to buy the snake bucket. That doesn't mean, that doesn't make it art. I was talking about, um, animated movies for the rest of the year. And there's not really as utopia too coming in the fall.

There is a Disney original movie called Hexd. Okay. You up on this? No. Is it about, which is?

One assumes. I hope so. I don't know. That Disney original in that Thanksgiving slot though. Interesting.

Okay. Let's go to international feature film. The nominees are as follows from Brazil. The secret agent from France. It was just an accident from Norway.

Sentimental value from Spain, Sarat. And from Tunisia. The voice of Hinde Rajab. Did you struggle with this one at all? This is one of my highlighted.

I'm going to change it last minute, but I'm not. Okay. I'll go first. Yes. Will win sentimental value should win the secret agent.

We match. Okay. So what, what informed that thinking? Sentimental value is nominated in best picture, best director, best original screenplay. And with four acting nominations.

People really like that movie. We spent a lot of time on Oscar Noms morning being like sentimental value wave. Like here it really comes.

“And I think that just the sheer numbers of it.”

Propell it. Secret agent is nominated in best picture. And also, back more. Fugnamura is nominated for best actor. And it's nominated for casting. So there is like appreciation for it.

But I think sentimental value. I mean, it has more nominations. And also if you're imagining the person who actually sits down. Who hadn't seen these movies before nominations sits down and watches both of them. I think that sentimental value is going to be an easier ask.

I think so too. But I feel like I am betraying myself in Brazil. I think this is a coin flip. Yeah. You'll keep sure your previous nominee.

I think that helps him. I think he has campaigned very effectively. It's extremely well liked. If you go through the list of nominees.

A lot of them. Yeah. You'll hear say sentimental value. That's an interesting indicator of something. I think you're right that the raft of nominations that it has is notable.

They don't have a lot of wins. They have not won a lot of precursors. You've got that stone scars guard Golden Globe win is very memorable. But there's not a lot of victories for this movie over that period of time. So it's not as though it has like a dramatic advantage over the secret agent.

Is there any part of you that think circle could be like a wild. It was just an accident or a voice of Henry Job moment here. Anything could happen. But you know, when all else fails when you don't know. I like you do ground myself in the numbers.

Yeah.

“The only thing that crossed my mind is just it's been such a dramatic and traumatic.”

Six weeks in Iran. Yes.

You know, first the protest and then the awful murder of protesters.

And then the strikes from Israel and the United States. And there's just so much unrest in that space. And so many people who are so angry about what's happening in that part of the world right now. That I don't know if that. Yeah.

I boost the movie like this. I mean, so strange to complete real world consequences. Listen, it's, I mean, it has been an escalating six weeks for sure. But none of that is new. And it did not.

And certainly not in the last six months. Yeah. And Jeff Farpanah, he won the and it was just an accident won the palm. And then has been pretty much blanked throughout with threatened, you know, with imprisonment when he returns to Iran. And it still didn't get him.

Yes. So I don't know. I mean, certainly the US has escalated. Um, in absolutely terrible ways. And, and Oscar voters do like to vote for some of their vote their politics through that.

But I don't know.

It just doesn't seem to have caught on.

I think you're right. Amazing movie. I would be really excited. It's exciting if it won. This is a good collection of nominees.

This category sometimes a bit wonky. And I really like it this year. Probably in part because Neon just put four of the five nominees. Documentary feature film. The nominees are the Alabama solution.

Come see me in the good light. It cutting through rocks, Mr. Nobody against Putin and the perfect neighbor. Um, not my favorite group of nominees. Uh-huh. We talked about it last week on the show.

Yes. Will win the perfect neighbor? Should win the Alabama solution. That's exactly what I had. Yeah.

I would say it's kind of a mild enthusiasm for the Alabama solution, too.

“I think that the Alabama solution is competent and important.”

And for there's really important work that, you know, a lot of people are already doing an an additive way. The perfect neighbor we talked about on the documentary episode. It's certainly the most widely seen the busiest. It, you know, it was distributed by Netflix. Um, I guess, I mean, it's interesting.

And the emotions and conversations that it elicits are worth further discussion. Uh-huh. We both felt a little strange about it. I don't think that the voters are going to feel estranged about it. I'm not ruling out Mr. Nobody against Putin.

There is a long track record of Russia related films winning in this category. You can think about it. I guess you can think about, um, uh, what does modest love turnups previous film before 2020,000 meters to under ifka? Hmm.

20 days from here. 20 days from here. I have Mary Paul. Yeah. There is.

I think there are certain sectors of the world that this category sometimes speaks to. And it's not always. There's some consistency there. And I think also Mr. Nobody against Putin has. A watchability factor that is maybe behind the perfect neighbor,

“but is probably in second place in this category.”

Yeah. And so I won't be shocked. I don't think I'll be thrilled if it wins. But I'm sure you're standing on stage with the Oscars. Well, everyone else is still in the most polluted town in Russia.

Great. Not ideal. But that film was also the submission by Denmark for international feature film, which is kind of fascinating about you because of the origins of the filmmakers. Anyhow, we'll see how that one shakes out.

Okay, original score. The nominees are jerkskin fendricks for Bagoña. Alexander Desplot for Frankenstein. Max Richter for Hamlet. Johnny Greenwood for one battle after another.

And Ludwig Goronson for sinners. Wait. Is it. Oh yeah, it's your turn. That's my turn.

Will win Ludwig Goronson for sinners. I'm zagging jerkskin fendricks for Bagoña. Just a score I like. Okay, we agree on Will and Ludwig Goronson for sinners. And I should win is Daniel Lepatin for Marty Supreme.

Okay. Well, that's not really how this works. This is our show. We can do what we want. Okay.

If that's where you want to be understood. I mean, for every category. I'm doing it for this one. Okay. The score branch is on notice.

What does that mean? Like, what are the consequences of that? What are you going to do to them? You got hurt them? No.

I'm going to score them. Yes, I'm going to score them publicly. And I'm going to keep me dealing it. Hmm.

“Do you think you can make change within the Academy?”

Do you think you're possible? I think I'm 41 years of proof that you absolutely cannot. What do you mean? Here you are shining. Okay.

I hear the next category is evidence that there is nothing I can do. Even though this will be a deserving winner.

So in the race for how many Oscars to sinners get, this would be the first one.

Yes. Okay. Original song. Here are the nominees. Deer me from Diane Warren.

relentless member when I told you that I saw every single one of the Oscar nominees. I lied. I've not seen this. And I will not see it. Golden from Kpop team managers.

I lied to you from sinners. Sweet dreams of joy from Viva Verde. Train dreams from train dreams. Hmm. What do you got?

Will win golden, should win golden. Did you consider I lied to you for should win? No.

“Because at 7.55 this morning, the only way I got my sons shoes on his feet was promising”

a golden dance party at the end of it.

And then everybody joined in. The baby me. I still don't know all the words. But up. Up.

Listen. That shit hits. Can I argue with that? Also, both both I lied to you and Golden obey the rule of it is a song that is like material to the film itself as opposed to just being tacked on at the end.

Agreed. So I like both of them. This is a rare good year for category that for the most part exists to take Oscars away from Duelita. I think this is one of the only superlocks of the whole night.

Okay, I hope so because I explained to my four year old that this song was going to win a trophy. And now every time he listened to it he says, "When the trophy, they win the trophy." So there's going to be a lot we're going to learn about loss on Sunday, if not. Well, I mean, honestly, this is just great for the academy. This is how you get little kids hooked on the Oscars.

I've been taking Alice to the Academy Museum and we go into that room where all the Oscars are on display. And then there's a room where you see a series of acceptance speeches. And you see some of the outfits that gowns, some of the envelopes that people opened. There's a way to kind of build some intrigue for young people around these awards.

“I think that's how I got started was just kind of getting interested in what my mom was watching on TV”

on that Sunday night every year and trying to figure out why that mattered. So this is a way to say, "Hey, this is something I should watch next year when it's like Diane Warren alone singing a song as the opening song to the show, it's not going to be as effective, but this year they should take advantage of it." Okay. Wait, did you officially give your pick for that?

Yes. Will win? Okay, I just making sure, listen. Golden. Sure, that's what I made.

Golden. You know, we have to use this again, see you later on. So. If Golden doesn't win, I'll be very surprised. Okay.

Next category, let's go to the shorts. The dreaded shorts. Yes. You watched all the shorts? I did.

Did you, did you like any of the shorts? I did. There was one that, and it's in our next category. Okay. That I was deeply moved by.

Okay. And, and it's in my should win. So I can, it's, is it your turn or it's your turn. So you read the number. I'll read the nominees for best documentary short.

The nominees are all the empty rooms. Armed only with the camera, the life and death of Brent Renaud. But children no more were and are gone, the devil is busy and perfectly estrangedness. Yes. Okay.

So I have will win all the empty rooms and should win perfectly estrangedness. Okay. Whatever. Like that's, they, you know, put some cameras on a donkey. I enjoy that.

Or put cameras on many donkeys. Here's a thing. I would like for the doc branch to change their conception of what good documentary is.

And good documentary is not always issues oriented journalism.

That's not, that's not only what documentary can be. The fact that this film perfectly estranges, which is this sort of like, um, exploratory nature documentary about, wildlife living near some sort of, uh, astronomy space. Um, I thought was really interesting.

And fun to watch in a way that is different from all these films. No, this is a pretty good category I thought. I thought the nominees were pretty solid this year. But they bear a similar total weight that the best doc category has this year. They do.

Um, I think picking the wordless doc, donkey documentary, which was like, experiential. That would be fine on the side. That would be fine in a museum. You know, if you'd wander into a room and you'd be like,

now I have the perspective of a donkey. I disagree. I also have will win all the empty rooms. Uh, should win the devil's busy. Okay.

Which is, as you were saying, I, in some ways, an issues driven documentary.

And it's directed by, um, Keith again, who also directed the perfect neighbor and Crystal and Hampton. And it's, it's, it's exploring the, is, setbacks, the rollbacks in women's health care and yes abortion, uh, following the overturning of Robie Wade.

And what that looks like for a clinic on the ground. So sure. Focus tightly on the, on the security. No, so here's the thing. But here's the thing.

It is about all those things. It is about issues. But it is about a woman named Tracy who is the head of security. And I was knocked out by Tracy. Uh, and it's one of the examples of finding the right subject

and finding someone who illuminates. Um, and what Tracy illuminates about the day-to-day life

“at this clinic is important and outrage, you know,”

outrageous and frustrating.

Um, and she's the first person there in the morning.

And she has to make sure that all of the cars that are, are people waiting are, you know, people who have appointments and not people with guns. And just like make sure you check the bags. You know, the, the day-to-day or hour-to-hour risk

that she puts herself in is quite frightening. But it's really just the way that she goes about doing her job. Um, and doing her job despite the impossibility that, um, the government and American everything has set out for her and the lack of funding and just the specifics and the,

the care and the matter of factness. She calls everyone guests. She puts out the, "Well, I just, I, I was so, so moved by her." And I'm like, "I don't know if this film deserves an Oscar, Tracy deserves much more than an Oscar,

but I, like, I've thought about it every day. Well, that's the thing. I mean, so, that's an, that's an issue and something that feels very personal to you. And that is often what this category and these kinds of categories do.

But it's not about the issue. It's about this person.

“Like, they're, there are many of these people that are talking.”

But they're what they're talking. But they're what they're talking. I'm like, I guess, but sure, but like, in healthcare, in education, there are, like, or many people who have, have, like, so much going on in their own lives.

And they just, like, do their job and try to help other people,

and they are never, never given a spotlight.

And, like, that is genuinely what it is. There are many traces in the world. They don't all get documentaries. I, I thought she was wonderful. Uh, I won't argue with that.

All the empty rooms we should say, which is the, the odds on favor to win this category is also a very emotional film. It's follow Steve Hartman, the CBS News correspondent. As he travels with a photographer embarking on a journey

to memorialize the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings. And speak to the families and create this kind of news media piece that represents this, you know, awful wave of 70 years of school shootings that we've had that, you know, primarily takes place in this country

and the rage and the despair that kind of comes across those two things. I, just the handful of Oscar voters I've talked to. This movie resonated very deeply with them. It does seem like this is likely to. And this is also a Netflix film.

So it is very easily accessible as well.

You never know what the shorts.

It's often very hard to predict. But, um, this one feels right. The devil is busy and armed only with a camera are currently available on HBO Max. Right.

Um, children no more is not available. Which I want to understand. Um, and perfectly a strangeness is coming to the criterion channel.

“I believe next month either this or maybe it's available right now.”

Maybe available right now. Is it criterion or is it canopy? It may be on canopy, but it's on the criterion channel. Um, yes, you're right. Right here.

Okay. Live action short film. It's been a little while since I've seen these. So you'll have to help remind me a little bit. But you'll, you'll be able to predict first.

I've now revered it back to, I don't like these kind of, this shorts categories. I understand. Tracy had her moment. I had some time for a couple of these.

Okay. Live action short film. The nominees are butchers stain a friend of Dorothy. Jane Austen's period drama. The singers and two people exchanging saliva.

I believe will win is two people exchanging saliva. I think that's my should win. I think this and the singers I both thought were kind of interesting. I didn't love either of these films, but I liked them enough. I did not enjoy the other three.

Um, and I, I found a couple of them to be like borderline bed. Yes. Jane Austen's period drama get out of here. It was horrible I thought. Well, it's just, it's like an SNL sketch.

Yes. But, but not one of the not as funny ones stretched out over 12 minutes. Couldn't agree more. I, I don't care about you know. I'm with like a real like girl boss.

Let's talk about it. Not my type of humor. Um, I have will win two people exchanging saliva.

Like get at it. Like let's just, let's get us.

Let's make a first feature.

“And because this is, this is the category where it's like people are trying out what they can do.”

Well, two people exchanging saliva is really interesting. This is also the odds on favorite in this category. It's a film, you know, it's kind of an absurdist romance set in a world where kissing is illegal and slaps in the face or currency. And, um, it's, it's an unusual movie.

It feels very, you're going to slant the most. Yeah. It's black and white. It's a French film. It's gotten some very strong reviews.

Um, the woman who is the star of Alia Bossi's Holy Spider is the star of this movie. Um, her name is Zara Amir Ebrahimi. And she's really good in the movie. It does feel like a, like, a road test for a feature. Yeah.

It could be a feature and maybe will be a feature. Right. Um, and to your point about the best feature like this is what I'm saying. It's the most fully formed film. Yeah.

Um, and there is an arc to being able to make a 14 minute narrative feature that works really well. I didn't really feel like these other nominees did a great job about. The singers is really more of like a mood piece. It's about like a sing off in a bar amongst a group of men. And it's really more like a stylistic accomplishment to me.

It looks very beautiful. It's the, the performances are, are interesting. It doesn't have the same.

Here's what we're trying to say about the world quality.

Right. Just kind of nice to watch for 13 minutes and then you move on with your day. Um, but you're staying.

“I think it's very heavy and it times a little heavy handed.”

Correct. Um, and a friend of Dorothy. I thought it was nice for Miriam Margolis to just like have a moment like that. Who's at a very long career. I think of her most is the angry mother who shoots.

It's accidentally shoots her son who is falling off of a roof in the film Magnolia. Um, okay. And actress who's been around for a very long time. Um, so it's a nice platform for her. But, you know, I think two people are changing saliva in the singers.

Or at least kind of interesting. And it was a, this an easy pick for you. I think the two people are changing saliva has enough. As you said, it's the quote unquote most mature or it has the most. Like, grabby look at me doing cinema stuff.

You know, it is in. It looks very nice. It's in black and white.

Um, it has a lot of strange ideas.

You want to try to figure out what's going on. Yeah. So it made a lot sense. It's um, being distributed by the New Yorker. Uh-huh.

So I heard from Madison at the New Yorker after my short slide. Wow. Great humor. I'm excited for Madison. Thank you.

You know what? And thank you to the New Yorker for at least making these available. Agreed. That is a nice thing. If you're going to do this, these movies should at least be widely available.

Uh, let's do the last shorts category. It's best animated short. The nominees are butterfly aka puppy owned forever green. The girl who cried pearls retirement plan. And the three sisters.

Yes. Now you're not historically an animation person. I don't know. I'm learning. That's true.

You are learning and growing. Not a short person either. Yes. Would you make of this crop? There were some things that were nice to look at.

Um, and I found myself, I'm not an animation person, but I'm heavy in illustrated children's books right now. Uh-huh. And so, and spending a lot of time with the varying styles of artwork in those books. Uh-huh. Because we recently tried to switch to chapter books and not accepting like well, so where the pictures.

Uh, so I found myself responding to the, to the animation more as art. And more as art and more to the styles that I thrilled to. Um, I have to assume that's pop-y owned. Yeah. So I think pop-y owned wool wind.

Yes. I'm predicting it to wind. I am as well. It's a beautifully hand painted movie about a Jewish swimmer named Alfred N'Kosh who survived the Holocaust. You know, there's obviously a long history of Holocaust related films.

Doing well with the Academy Awards. I don't think that's the, you know, the only reason the primary reason why this movie would win.

“I think it's very visually distinct from a lot of these other films.”

Some of which you use traditional hand drawn animation, some of which you use 3D animation. This just feels like a different kind of looks like a artistic experience. Yes, it's very, it's beautiful and very captivating and short. Yeah. And I think conveys its story and its message without being heavy handed either.

So I think that's going to win. Honestly, if you told me the girl who cried pearls or retirement plan one, I wouldn't be surprised. Same retirement plan has won a lot of. Like festival presentations and very funny. And I liked it.

I enjoyed it. I thought it was very funny. Shout out again to the New Yorker for making it available. I'm not a stop motion person. The girl who cried pearls is a stop motion.

I'm not unless it's a heatizer and coalizer and Rudolph. Yeah. I just, I'm not really bad. I'm not really bad. You salute.

Yeah.

Retirement plan has a very small benefit.

Not just to being a New Yorker distributed short film, but also having. A modicum of celebrity attached to it and Donald Gleason, who is the narrator of it. And it does feel a bit like an extended New Yorker cartoon. And in that way is very clever and also somewhat brief and effective. I think it's only seven minutes long.

I liked that one the best. I think pop.

“I think pop you win but who the hell knows?”

I'm going with Will and and should win. Pop you. Okay. We'll see. Next category.

Costume design.

The nominees are as follows.

L. Scott for Avatar Fire and Ash. Kate Hawley for Frankenstein, Melgoja, Tursanska for Hamdent, Miyako Belizi for Marty Supreme and Ruth E. Carter for sinners. What do you got? Kate Hawley, Frankenstein, Willwyn, and should win Miyako Belizi, Marty Supreme. We match. Yeah. I probably would have been comfortable with any of the, I think this is a pretty good category. It should win. Yeah, I have Frankenstein for Kate Hawley, Willwyn, and I have

Miyako Belizi for Marty Supreme. She's one of the good stuff and she won it back to Kate Hawley. Yes. I feel pretty strongly this is going to happen. I just mean that all five of these

“nominees I think are good. Say more about Avatar Fire and Ash costume design.”

I think there's costume design for giant Navi creatures. Sure. And also for the, what's the unit chaplain character name? Varrang. Varrang's looks is is very hip forward. Directional. Yeah, it is. That's, it's an aspect of costume design that is a little under discussed, which is that it's an, it is fabrics and textures sometimes, but it's, it's also just look. It's what are, how are CGI characters cloaked is a factor. I think in this category and maybe

like a way that the category might be evolving a little bit. I think one of the reasons why Kate Hawley has the most classical costume winning design that you will find at the Academy of Listen, one of the nice things I had to say about Frankenstein was that red dress and how that red dress is used is and also the, the, the bride of Frankenstein in that film is very beautifully or neatly present, you know. Yes. So I'm, I get it deserving.

Won't be the last time we talk about Frankenstein. Let's talk about makeup and hair styling. Yes. The nominees are Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cleona Fury for Frankenstein, Kiyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Habino and Tadashi, Nishimatsu for Kakuho, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry for Centers, Kazuhiro Glenn Griffin and Bjorn Rabin for the smashing machine and Thomas Foldberg and Katherine Sauerberg for the ugly steps step sister. Will win Frankenstein? Yes. Should win the ugly

step sister. Okay. This is the one I forgot to watch. Okay. Because it's, I knew that I needed to do Kakuho and the lost bus. And because you also hadn't seen, I watched Kakuho. Yes. Yes. I had seen the lost bus previously. But you had seen the ugly step sister. I had. So I forgot because it

“wasn't noted in your list. I think should win Frankenstein. They did a good job with the creature”

design. Can I argue with that? Yeah. I think Kakuho is an interesting film. It's a three-hour Japanese epic about Kubuki and two friends who move through the world of Kubuki. Tom Cruise's favorite movie of 2025. Ugly step sister is very gross and funny. And it's humor hinges on its makeup and hair styling, which is why I'm making the pick. It is like to your point about songs. It's not just incidental to the movie. It is core to the movie as is Frankenstein. But I just liked what the

ugly step sister did with it a little bit better. Two wins for Frankenstein. Yeah. Zero wins so far for one battle after another. One win for sinners. Production design. Yes. The nominees are Tamara Deviral for Frankenstein Fiona Crombee for HamNet Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme Florentia Morton for one battle after another and Hannah Beakler and Monique Champaign for sinners. Will Lynn? Tamara Deviral? Frankenstein? Should win Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme. Give Jack

Fisk an Oscar. I agree. We match on this as well. I don't know how we just, how we just settled

on this. It just, just, just, we're doing a first and a second amount of work there. I'm how did the

Academy and all the precursors just land on this? Because Frankenstein really has swept the guilds and precursors in production costume and makeup and hair styling. And at the time, people talked about, oh, it's, you know, handmade and so beautiful and, like, so Magisterial to look at. I think you and I did not thrill to all of it in the same way. But I do think a lot of craft,

like, the hand literal hand work that goes into it. So yeah, I mean, it's, it's a really

interesting category because it, it waxes and wains in terms of what kind of stories it wants

“to celebrate from fantasy to historical period piece to future set movies. Right. And I think”

Marty Supreme falls into an uncomfortable middle zone in terms of what is being celebrated and recognized. So just to go to the last few years of production design, last year's winter was wicked. Which I think is actually not a bit, I think the production design and the movie is pretty good. I think it's not very poorly, but I think the design of the world works. Which is also what you could say about Frankenstein. And the production design is not, and also the cinematography

is like not dissimilar. It's true. And I remember watching Frankenstein being like, why does this layer where he's building it look exactly like the clock room in Wicked? As a very good call, 2023 is poor things. Also wonderful production sign in that movie. 2022 all quiet on the western front.

“Sure. 2021 do 2020 make. In 2019 was once upon a time in Hollywood, right?”

Yes, Barbara Lingenisi. Hey, and that's probably the closest we have in terms of a comp to Marty Supreme. Right. But what were the, what were the competitors in 2019? Because they tend to go just what is what's the oldest we can go here. That year's nominees were the Irishman. Similarly, you know, in the 50s, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, and Parasite. All right. So they didn't give the home and Parasite production design. So no, they didn't. Yeah. It's very interesting. Jack Fisk, here's the

thing. He's a extremely well-known amongst cinephiles. Okay. Why the Academy doesn't care? I'm not sure. He has been nominated four times with no wins and he's 80 years old. It's a shame. This episode is brought to you by Volkswagen. There is such a thing as becoming too comfortable in your day-to-day but our favorite films with stories that make us change the way we think they weren't made by people content to just sit back and watch the world pass by. This is your sign that you shouldn't

either from us, VW, and the other drivers out there grab the wheel. Do you love even if it means taking the road less traveled? Learn more at vw.com. Okay. Let's do sound. There are quite a few people associated with this one. I won't read every single nominee's name, but these are the films that are nominated for best sound. F1, Frankenstein, one battle after another, sinners, and Sarat. Is it my turn to go first? It is. Will win F1. Yes. Should win sinners. Okay. I did should win F1. Like

why not? Room room. Yeah, sinners is both a music movie and an action movie. I had sinners until I was just kind of like sure. Yeah, at the end. Parts go loud. At the MPSE Awards, sinners won the award for 80-hour dialogue, which I thought was interesting in part because you know they're using those heavy cameras and so the ADR really has to work well because they're loud. F1, of course,

there's a lot of cameras mounted on, if I can race course. So that also is a feet. As always,

I am no expert in sound and every year someone who works in the sound industry DMs me and it's like stop talking about this. You sound like an asshole. I apologize. I'm doing my best. I'm not

“an expert. F1 seems like it would be a fine winner. Okay. Do you think this will be F1's only win?”

Yes, I do. I had to scroll that a little bit. Not that picture. That's okay. Just making sure. Next category, visual effects. The nominees are Avatar Fire and Ash F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, the Lost Bus, and sinners. What do you got? Will win Avatar Fire and Ash? Should win F1? I don't know. Why not? No. Okay. No. Should put some respect on big Jim's name. He invented an entirely new way of making films. And that's cool. And he's one Oscars for it. And I didn't like

watching this one as much as I liked the other one where they did race cars and then they made it look real. Okay. Did you know that Avatar 1 that we make things look real believably and with craft, then rather than creating new things? That's just my taste. That's interesting. That does seem to be stifling creativity. Okay. I was just like, I like stories about humans instead of, you know, fantasy stories. That's fine. Humans appear in the film of Avatar Fire and Ash. They're the villains.

Of course. It's mostly just ED Falco and one of the power loader power loaders. God plus.

Okay. Film editing. And here's what you think. Yeah. I should have ordered a power loader for the

Instagram life. Whoa. Now the those exist. Is that a real thing? No, Jack. You don't know?

And make it fit into this studio. Should I interview Steven Spielberg Waltz in a power loader?

“That would be a real alpha move. Okay. Film editing. And here's where we show our hand.”

Well, here's where the the wheels start churning. Truly for what's going to happen on this night. We have just gotten through the bulk of the craft awards. But there's a couple more to come. And I think they're going to be very indicative of what's going to go down. So film editing. The nominees are Steven Muriel and for F1 Ronald Braunstein and Josh Saffty for Marty Supreme Andy Jurgenson for one battle after another. Olivia Boote for sentimental value and Michael Schauver for

Centers. I go first. Yes. Will win one battle after another. Andy Jurgenson should win one battle

after another. Andy Jurgenson. Oh, interesting. Okay. You're not spreading. This is in the left. Two hour and 40 minute film that feels like it's an hour and 40 minutes. The most memorable moment from the film among the most memorable moments in movies this year is the car chase scene, which is an extraordinary feat of editing through the hills of Brago Springs. This is Andy Jurgenson's second feature as lead editor on a movie. He is not an academy regular. His only other editing

credited as a lead editor is licorice pizza. So him winning here, it would remind me a little bit of Eric Messer Schmidt's win for cinematography for Mank, where it was a guy who was on Fincher's team for a while and was present for a lot of stuff. And when he got bumped up, he got awarded

“pretty quickly. That's kind of what this feels like to me. What do you think is going to happen?”

I also have Andy Jurgenson won battle after another two win. I would be happy. I should win. I agree with you, but I put something different just for fun, which is Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safty for Marty Supreme, which is another long movie that moves and moves and moves and part of its feature is that relentlessness and the editing and the pacing to make you feel incredibly stressed out. You think also about the sports elements of it and the ping pong

scenes and there's a lot to fit into it. I love that film. Let's spread the wealth. I think it's a great shout. It's a really good category in general. I think the actually sentimental value was probably running in last place in this category, but it's also a very well-edited film because there's lots of, it's kind of sliding between history at times and sliding between perspectives and trying to balance a lot of characters narratives in a way that is a little bit more

“as a little quieter, but I think it's also very accomplished. Good job by the Academy Awards,”

recognizing these films. Now for our predictions for this year's best casting award brought to you by Volkswagen, no one wins in a word by just sitting around thinking up great ideas for the big screen. They make it happen. No matter how many years it takes, this is a call from us from VW and from all those award-winning drivers out there, get in the director's seat. Make your dreams

happen because honestly, what are you waiting for? Okay, best casting the first year ever for this award,

the nominees are as follows, forehand it, need a gold, for Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti, for one battle after another, Cassandra Kulakundas, for the secret agent, Gabriel Dominguez, and for sinners Francine Mazeler. Yes, what do you got? Oh, it's my turn. Will win, Francine Mazeler, sinners, and should win Gabriel Dominguez, the secret agent? That is exactly what I have. Yeah. Now, let's start by just talking about Francine Mazeler for a moment.

Francine Mazeler is a legend. I'm going to just share with you, well, let's start with this. She's cast nine best picture nominees in the last seven years. She is perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood. Here are her credits from the beginning of her career in the 1990s. These are just the movies that she cast in the 1990s. Her first film where she's identified as the casting director is reality bites. Then the usual

suspects, then bad boys, then the people versus Larry Flint, then as good as it gets, then out of sight, and then you've got male. That's sequentially. I've not removed anything or added any,

those are the movies that she cast, which are basically all incredible. One of the all-time

streaks in any discipline. If you go through the her career, I mean, her 2000s is not dissimilar from this. She has been associated with so many beloved movies over the years. I met her at telly right a couple of years ago. She's such a cool person and an interesting person. She is a Hollywood casting director, though. She's great at casting working actors, and when makes her different from most of her other nominees in this category, which is they do something

different. If you look at what Jennifer Venditti has been doing for a lot of movies, a lot of 24 movies, but a lot of films over the last 10 years, especially Safty Brothers movies, Gabriel Dominguez,

And one battle, too, has reams and reams of first-time faces. People have never been in a movie before.

And Grace notes like, "Mr. Wonderful." No, no, that's pretty. Sorry, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But other recognizable people from other movies, but not in the sense of, I see, it's not Leonardo Capri. Yes, yes. Well, you also have Leonardo Capri. No, I mean, the two most memorable ones to me are the sort of the intake nurse when Bob has been arrested, and then the nurse who freeze him, those two women who are not, who are non-professional actors, and who are among the most memorable

people in that movie. So there's so much accomplishment there. And the Nina Golden Hamnit

“is a smaller crop, but I think Jacobi Drup in particular is like a real discovery, and he is the”

beating heart of that movie in many ways. And so she did good work as well. The question I think about this category, which fascinates me, is will this secretly just become the best ensemble win? Because sinners won the best ensemble at the sag awards, and because it is, it's rewarding a bunch of people that we really like. It could. I think it's unfair to pin that on sinners because in addition to casting Michael B. Jordan and Haley Steinfeld and Jack O'Connell and Delray Lindo,

and people who we know, although maybe not, you know, Haley Steinfeld was, I didn't expect that for her. So, you know, that's in imagination, but like Miles Keaton is the find, and the movie hinges on him. And so it's doing, and then all on down the line of the supporting actors, some are more well known than others, and some are some are that guys, but there is just working at volume, and she also found the right new person and found and reinvented some known people. So,

“I think that this actually is a feat of casting. I think it is, too. You've also got to consider”

when you introduce a new award, there's a whole line of people who are ready for it. It's time award. Francy Maysler happens to be the casting director of one of the most acclaimed films, the most denominated film in the history of the Oscars. It's just the convergence of a lot of things that I think is leading to this feature, the chart likely winning. If she doesn't win, that will be notable. I think for the future precedent of the award and kind of what the award, what people are

voting for and why, because most people who are voting on this award will have seen these films, unlike some of these other categories, where there may be extensions, there's not going to be a lot of extensions in this category going forward. It's going to be one of the most voted on categories despite it being a below-the-line category. It's going to be interesting to me. That was our best casting awards prediction brought to you by Volkswagen, like some of our favorite protagonists in film

“this past year. If you want to make the most of your life, you have to chase after what you want,”

because when you sit back and become a passenger in your day-to-day life, that's an easy way to make regrets. Learn more at vw.com. Okay. Next category is cinematography. Okay. The nominees are Dan Lousen for Frankenstein, Darius Congee for Marty Supreme, Michael Ballman for one battle after another. Autumn Duraldarkopoffer centers, Dolpho Veloso for train dreams. What do you got? It's my turn again. Okay. It's my turn. Michael Ballman for one battle after another will win.

Autumn Duraldarkopoffer Center should win. We match. But it's, I mean, it's a tight race. It is, but you think Autumn could still win? She could. She could and that would be really, really exciting. To, I just, the awesome interview on this podcast,

but it's like amazing work. And I think even compared with some of the other

nominees in this category and I won't name names, but it cinnors a period piece. And it is like recreating a world. And as she talked about, recreating it in a beautiful photographic way. So it's, it's really, really great work. It could happen. On the other hand, when Michael Ballman won that Ace awards, Ace, we sat here talking about like, no, he's won every single precursor. So it's probably going to be Michael Ballman. And also that is a beautiful movie.

It is. He's another interesting person like Andy Jurgenson, who, you know, on his previous film with Paul Thomas Anderson, they were co-credited as D.P. Paul Thomas Anderson did not take a D.P. co-credit on this movie. He is now Balman is now. He's made a lot of television as well. He's the D.P. of the forthcoming Anthony Bourdain film that Matt Johnson made. He's obviously very gifted.

But he's not like an industry legend. The other thing for Autumn is a woman is never won this

award. Yeah. I mean, it's just crazy that a woman is never won this award. There have been many nominees over the years. And Ryan Coupler films have gotten nominees over the years. Rachel Morrison has been nominated here. But, you know, that's not the reason she should win. I think she should win because she brings a real artistic flair to the world that Coupler created. But, which is,

of where my heads out with the awards and what it could mean. The only other thing I want to say

because this sort of concludes the below-the-line category. And Autumn is one of a trio of sinners department heads. Also Ruthie Carter and Hannah Beekler. The Coupler has assembled and worked with and they're just like the power trio of Black women and making movies. So, it seems, and we haven't predicted them to win. And that's kind of a bummer.

“Hannah Beekler is one in the past and Ruthie Carter is one of the past. And I think that there was”

some thinking that Autumn would be able to go in there because these films are so loved. I mean, the look of sinners is really fascinating and Autumn talked about it at length when she was on the show. And Autumn has also been doing a lot of pressons, put herself out there and I think in a very smart way. So, you know, we will see what happens. But just wanted to shout them out because they're great. That's all. They are great. I'm going to come back to Andy

and Michael being my picks and how it relates to the rest of the puzzle. Okay. Best original screenplay. The nominees are Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon to Farpanahe and script collaborators for it was just an accident. Ronald Braunstein and Josh Saffty from Marty Supreme. You'll come true in a skill-voked for sentimental value and Ryan Cougler for sinners. Will win sinners? Should win sinners? I wrote Will win sinners should win sentimental value.

Okay. Just just a feeling ahead. That's beautiful. I think it's a great film. I think it's really art. I think the, I think the work, the best work the cooler does is the vision. I think the script is very good. Yeah. I think the central conceit of colliding the idea of a vampire movie and black blues music and the history of black Americans is just ingenious. Right. There's just some very, very special in that metaphor. But sentimental value is very writerly and is very

novelistic in a way that I admire. I really like what Joaquin Trude does. So that's my pick. Any, there's no chance for an upset here. Cougler is getting this. I really, I will be very upset if there is an upset because this is, this is our category. This is, this is where all the real ones actually do get their Oscar. Even if they're deserving of many more, which is also the case of Ryan Cougler. And also, I just, I think it's a, it's a tough night and a bad luck if he's not

up there. I agree with that. Yeah. Best adapted screenplay. The nominees are Will Tracey for Bagoño Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Clujão and Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnut, Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another and Clint Bentley and Greg Quidar for Train Dreams. Will win one battle after another, Paul Thomas Anderson? Yes. Should win one battle after another for

“Paul Thomas Anderson? Yes. You agree. What if I was like, should win Hamnut? I'm, you should”

Frankenstein. This will almost certainly be Paul Thomas Anderson's first Academy Award. He has been

over 11 up until this point. Will it be his last of the night? Probably not. Let's talk about that category now. Best director. The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another. Ryan Cougler for sinners Josh Saffty for Marty Supreme. You'll come true for sentimental value and Clujão for Hamnut. Will win Paul Thomas Anderson and should win Paul Thomas Anderson. I agree. Yeah. One of the DJA. Everybody likes Paul Thomas Anderson. Okay. Has one and it is the

quote unquote. It's time narrative comes to its conclusion. Not like too far past when it should have gone. And this is also, it's not like a square sazi wanting for the departed type situation. I think even though I enjoy watching the departed, even though I don't understand what happens at the end of it. I we really like like this movie and I think that there is a magic to the way that it was made that we've heard about from PTA and from everyone who worked with him and there was a magic

to the result. His first action movie, but is also so much more than an action movie and

he has been the leader of all these people. So I feel good about it. I feel bad that other people are losing. Let's say that. How did, how did, how did Phantom Thread knock it nominated for Best Original Screenplay? It's what happened there? The Phantom Thread Disrespect. I don't need, he didn't get nominated. Listen, the nominees that you're get out the big sick ladybird

“the shape of water in three billboards. I remember that morning feeling excited with the number”

of nominations that Phantom Thread did get, but it's just bananas because he got Best Director that year and not screenplayed. Obviously, 10 screenplayed nominees to, I'm just utterly bizarre to me. I like the big sick too, but I mean, come on. Okay, that's just the sidebar. It's one of

like him to have already had a Best Original Screenplay Oscar. And then that leads to this feeling

that has been verbaling throughout the year of like, man, it's beyond its time for Paul Thomas Anderson.

“And then like, now you can say, well, is there going to be an over-correction on that time?”

We'll get, we'll get to that. Okay, this is where things get really interesting. Yeah, we're going to do the acting awards. I don't feel good about three of these four. I don't think most awards prognosticators feel good about three of these four. How do you feel? I think that I'm going to be wrong about one of them. And so then I was spiraling of trying to outthink what I would be wrong about and then correct for it. And then I, you know, I am looking at history. I'm looking at the old

results. I'm, I'm triangulating as best I can, but then I have to think about in my, you know,

like holding on too hard to the past to do I need to like open my mind. So I'm listen, I'm spiraling.

I don't know what to say. You're spiraling. I'm not spiraling. I've made my decision. Okay. And I have written everything down. Hang in there. You got this. Best actor in a supporting role.

“Yes. That's how we're going to start. Okay. The nominees are Benicio del Toro for one battle”

after another Jacob at Lorty for Frankenstein, Del Roy Lindo for sinners, Sean Penn for one battle after another and Stellan scars guard for sentimental value. I think it's your time. I've chosen Sean Penn. I have his well for Willwin and I've chosen Stellan scars guard for should win. Okay. I think it's possible that Stellan scars guard wins. I don't see the Del Roy Lindo thing. But there are people who are passionate about people who say this is Martia Gay Harden for Pollock.

Has not won any precursors? Okay. Nobody is really talking about this happening. And then all of a sudden you hear that name and you're like, oh my god, a real genuine Oscar surprise.

And I think many of those people are pointing to first of all that he got in without having one.

And he was the surprise nominee. He was. But then also that he accepted best ensemble at the side of it. And so he was the last person on the stage that you heard from and really like held the room. And so we believe in the vibe shift. Yeah. The sinners vibe shift that this is would be the clearest sign of it changing. It wouldn't indicate specifically. But I will say this. Sean Penn winning the precursors despite not showing up. What that is essentially done.

And I had someone who's very smart about this stuff share this insight with me yesterday. This is a category that this movie didn't even have a month ago. Yeah. You know, when everybody thought it was Stellan scars guard or Jacob Allority, this just adds to one battle strength. So Sean Penn wins. That might also very clearly indicate which way the wind is blowing. Now there's some speculation that Sean Penn won't even go to the Academy Awards. He went to the Golden Globe.

He did. But I wonder if the reaction he got to the Golden Globes is why he's like,

“fuck all this. I don't care. Which would be really honestly really funny. But like for I think it was”

variety today had some peace that was like, please Sean Penn go to the go to the Oscars. I don't who cares? Like, that's like, that's the whole thing. He's like, fuck you to everybody. That's surely they can, I don't think they'll let him smoke inside the auditorium. But they can set up a little room on the side. And you feel about public smoking. You think we should bring it back? I mean, I don't think that's not what I asked you. I think that I think that we should not have it everywhere

all the time because like wherever you want, because I gotta take my kids places and then also it's just your hair really smells your clothes. That's sort of thing. And I just I can't be doing laundry on that level. But and also it's battery of children. My children. No. Don't smoke. I grew up in a house with two parents while they're still together. My dad's smoke parlaments and my mom smoked Winston's. And there's just smoke in the alley. I know she was

led and red. She was really led and red. That's for real. All the way up until I was like nine, and then she just quit cold turkey. But I think that they, I think they both smoke since like 14. And man, it just smelled like fucking smoke. My entire childhood. And that was obviously wasn't good for me. No. So I don't really believe in that that being said, you know, people look cool smoking. What are we going to do? Yeah. This is life. I went to a party recently where it was just smoking

indoors, bouquets and cigarettes everywhere. Yeah. It was it was fun. Why are we talking about the Sean pants? Sean pants. Did you make your make your make your make your pick? Oh, I will when Sean pants should when beneath your daughter. You're still on that train. Is there any chance it happens? I don't think so. Okay. Um, but I, that makes it all the more special to me. If Benizio wins even more so, I'm like, wow, one battle in a really prime position.

And there are many other languages to all the prices.

“Now in your Aldi Nord, for years and further, with fresh music for every taste.”

Aldi, for all. And I'm glad I've been producing our ingredients and the action app, action, little prizes, of course, for you. Let's go to another stumper, best actress in a supporting role. The nominees are L fanning in sentimental value, Ingib Stodder Lilias, for sentimental value,

Amy Madigan for weapons, One Mi Musaku, for sinners and Teyana Taylor for one battle after another. This is the one that I wrote in right before we started recording. This is what I was texting you stressed about last night. This is what I've been texting friends and loves ones.

Yep. You're flumixed. Did a little like pre-bed time counsel with my husband Zach, who taught me off the ledge of what was a bad pick though, if it's then right, I'm going to be mad at myself.

Ultimately, I was trying to decide between Amy Madigan and One Mi Musaku.

Okay. Amy Madigan for weapons, One Mi Musaku for sinners. There is a tradition there as a precedent as you have previously noted of someone winning and best supporting actress as the only nominee for their film, which Amy Madigan is for one.

Nine times this has happened. It's very rare for anyone to win an acting award when they're the soul nominee from their film. Right. She also has the sag bump and gave a great speech at sag and I, you know, is, is beloved.

I have maintained that I don't think international voters care about field of dreams and the Amy Madigan Hollywood legacy in the way that we do. But I, I also, I had a gut instinct like last week, I was like, I think it's going to be One Mi Musaku.

“I just, I, and that is like pure, that's how I make decisions at some point.”

I go on with what I feel. So I'm going with, uh, One Mi Musaku. What is your should one?

I thought Ingah, it's not really us, was very good in sentimental value.

I can hell yeah. I want to hear that. That's so nice. Will when I chose Amy Madigan. Okay.

I get it. This is my logic. I get it. Here's my, and I don't, I don't fucking know. I don't fucking.

This is going to be the first big award they give out. Yeah. And I'm going to be like, all right. Well, that happens. When we were talking about it last night, you were like, I just had to make a decision

and move on. That's what I, like I had to let it go. That is what I did. I, I thought about it very clearly this way. There has been only one race, this entire award season, in which Amy Madigan, Teiana Taylor

and One Mi Musaku have gone against each other and that is Zach. Mm-hm. And Amy Madigan, one Zach. Yeah. That's it.

Zach isn't always predictive.

I'm not saying that's the only reason she's winning. I just kind of feel like she's going to win. I told this story to Billy Lairday, I was sitting in a movie theater until you ride with an award strategist. We're just chatting about what's going, the next six months going to be like, and I turned

to the person and I was like, I feel like there's a great campaign to be run for Amy Madigan. I feel like she's insanely memorable in that movie. She is an actor with a huge history. She'll be great at Q and A's because she's got a great personality and she's got a lot

of cool movies to talk about in her career. She's a very, um, principal person, a thoughtful person, but she also feels like a normal person. She doesn't feel like a star. This category likes that.

So I'm just going with it, uh, you know, you've been consistent on it since the very beginning and I respect that. I, you could definitely be right. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel confident at all either, but I just have a vibe and then it's interesting if we disagree.

That's not the way planned it. You know, interesting test of this, too. And we've talked about the villain thing and how villains often go to the supporting has your category. Time.

We don't have the same pick. I think it is. And that crazy. Yeah. It's probably good.

“I think most people can remember the name of Amy Madigan's character in this movie.”

Which is Aunt Gladys. Yes. I don't know if the same could be said for one famous soccer's character. I think it could be said for town as Taylor's character in part because her name is so unusual.

Yeah. But for the of Beverly Hills. Maybe they could remember Annie. Maybe not. You know, obviously, sinners is the much more popular of all of the movies that we're

talking about. But that's another thing where it's just like Aunt Gladys kind of went into the lexicon. A little bit. Yeah. This is all circumstantial.

I'm just so cool. A little bit as I was, um, to the, I guess HBO Brazil, to the Brazilian specific promotional video that Tony Maria, aka Donia Sebastiana from the secret agent did in which she is, like, she, you know, she does the Billy Crystal thing. She's like juxtaposed into various films.

Yes. And she's, she's like in sinners as Jack O'Connell for a while, which is really funny.

So I haven't seen it. Once again, just by big. And then at the end, she is, she is on Gladys. So, and then she's wrapping Marty Supreme Ping pong balls. I don't know if.

I was in Gladys' very memorable. My shirt went as inga as well. Yeah.

“Last night, last night, I was like, Jack, what about Inga?”

He was like, she hasn't won a single thing. I was predicting Inga a couple of months ago and I have moved way off of that. That could be actually the Marcia Gay Harden thing, or they're like, oh, okay.

And where is the sentimental value, you know, it's, it's so powerful, nominee as wise.

It could go overnight. I mean, that's, that's 100% in play, you know, if it does, if secret agent wins international, it could go overnight. Okay. Let's go back to some normalcy, best actress in a leading role, the nominees are Jessie Buckley

for Hamlet Rose Burn for, if I had legs, I'd kick you, Kate Hudson for song sung blue. We're not to rise vote for sentimental value and Emma Stone for Bagoña. Will win. The ride herself. Jessie Buckley and Hamlet, and here she comes, should win.

I wrote down Emma Stone and then just went fucking, Jessie Buckley, like, I don't know. Jessie Buckley, she's in the last 40 minutes, knocked me out, I'm not immune to it. I said it when we talked, after you came back from Venice, I was like, look, man, I have some notes about this movie, but I really liked it and I liked it because I walked out at the last 40 minutes feeling crushed overwhelmed by what she pulls off in the movie.

And not just in the last 40 minutes in that the birth scene of the twins, I think about it all the time. She is astonishing. She really is. She's very good in this.

And you have the same?

“I have Will and Jessie Buckley, should win Rose Burn.”

Okay. Rose Burn is doing a different but similar thing in, like, in perfect and electrifying detail. And the scene, the support group, and like, it is our fault, it's our fault scene and where she's just shoving Kate in her mouth is unbelievable. She, as she goes for it and it's, oh, the therapy scenes with Conan speaking of.

She's fantastic. She's amazing. It's one of the best performances leading movie that she carries on her shoulders. This is another one of those, this category in the next category is a sign of the strength of this.

There were a lot of good movies this year and that this is a, and I would say an unusually quality Oscar slate. Yeah. Some, like, I'm not so sure about that. You know, the F1's over root was just an accident.

Like, you know, could it, could it, could it, could it done a little better, but it's a very good slate. Okay. Now for the fucking Barnburner, okay. This is like the category of my life.

This is like I've never had more of a weird feeling about a category than you've been

crunching numbers. Yeah. There's a lot of data to think about. There's a lot of strategy to go into this. I'm in the vibe shift plays a big part in this.

And I don't know whether this will be predictive of the rest of the night or not. But I, I'm very eager to talk about it with you. So it is best actor and a leading role. The nominees are Timothy Schaleme and Morty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio, and one battle after another, Ethan Hawken Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for sinners and Wagner

Mora for the secret agent. Mm-hmm. It's my turn. Go. Will win.

Michael B. Jordan. Okay. Centers. Okay. Should win Timothy Schaleme, Morty Supreme.

And I love operand ballet. I love them. I am picking Michael B. Jordan. I don't feel good about it. Okay.

This is, we're kind of in, like, don't be a coward, predict F. One territory here. Because I have got, like, a really weird feeling that either Leo or Wagner Mora is going to win. Really weird. I, I was doing this myself because, as you know, I've been on the Wagner Mora this,

it's Wagner Mora's time, you know, fear and respect Brazil for months.

And there is an interpretation where Timmy wins the first few.

And then you have the BAFTAs. I don't remember the actor's name and I swear, Robert Armaio. And then Michael B. Jordan in surprise at, at SAG. And you think, okay. So this is, this is why it open.

And then maybe Wagner Mora and the international vote. Okay. Here's the, comes through. The case against Wagner Mora there is that Wagner Mora was not even shortlisted for the BAFTA.

I agree.

“I think there is a, there is a prevailing theory.”

I talked to two different people about this yesterday. There is a theory, unprovable, that Leo is in second place at BAFTA. And that the case for Leo, okay. Who has not been campaigning as much in the last couple of weeks. Yeah, that's because he's filming a movie.

Yes, which I'm very grateful for. Because Mark is worth that day. Jennifer Lawrence. That there's a weird thing here where like no one's talking about this, but that he, Leo is Leo, he's very understood to be great.

You know, the academy for years kind of gave him the stiff arm, but that this is a bit

And then there's two things to note here. One is that BAFTA is usually the bell weather. They've matched on best actor nine out of the past 10 years. So the Robert R. Myowin really throws this thing into a state of disrepair. SAG also, and that is where the Michael B. Jordan prediction comes.

If not for that SAG, when no one would be pleased to him to win. But SAG has been off in actor and actress in three out of the last six years. SAG is just not super predictive. We just saw last year, Demi Moore and Timothy Shalamate, one best actor and best actress, and they both lost the academy awards.

I agree with you. And I was trying to talk myself out of this, and then also, by the way, so I am picking Michael B. Jordan. So I'm picking a sinner's win in best actor and best supporting actress. You are.

So then I need to start doing sin math and does that affect any of my other picks. So I agree with you that I have a lot of like, I'm not sure, but I was talking to a friend

“of ours last night and just like, hey, who do you think is going to win?”

And they also said Michael B because this SAG moment was perfectly timed in the middle of voting. It was. And what had that great viral moment of surprise in the room, you could just feel people being like excited for something new that they didn't expect and also excited for him.

And then as my friend said, he wears it so well. Yes.

He just and it was an amazing speech and and natural and heartfelt and still a movie star.

And it just kind of like clicked into place. And there was this moment of like, oh, why isn't Michael B. Jordan, the front runner for best actor? And I just, I don't know, okay, my people vote is a real question and did people vote the first week the second week?

I don't know. I think there's a couple of things to take in consideration here, some of which is a little bit unseemly, but I'm just going to talk through it. One, Michael B. Jordan is a classical kind of extremely well-liked Hollywood person who has been involved since he was a young kid and we've watched him grow up in television

and movies. He's a legitimate star, like he opens movies, people really like seeing him. He also is a classical star and that we don't know a lot about him.

He has done an amazing job of managing his persona and bid just basically showing up for

the movies and occasionally when he talks about what he likes, it's like, I like anime. Like it's kind of harmless. And so all of that is going for him. And you've got a lot of people who have interacted, I was with some people over the last few days who would like interact with him a lot over the years and are like, he's a good guy.

I like him. That movie is on his shoulders. He's giving two performances, right? There's all those things. On the flip side, I don't know what the international academy thinks of centers.

“I think this is to your point about having two acting wins and maybe more, plus a screenplay”

win. This is a movie that's going to have to play for the new academy in a way that I'm not sure if it will. It might. It very well might.

We just don't know. But the other thing there is, okay, if they're not going for Michael B. Jordan, he's the vote splitting between Wagnermore, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chalame, like this. There's some hair brain thinking out there that Chalame, who still has a lot of supporters and B.J. would split and that would be the pathway for a Wagner or for a Leo to climb up.

I think that's, I almost did it, man, I almost, almost, I almost picked Leo. And I know I've been kind of wish casting that throughout the year. I would be elated if Leo won. I would feel for Michael B. Jordan as well because the thing you were talking about at the beginning of this like this is about emotions and Michael B on stage, a tag felt so good.

Yeah, I agree. I agree.

“For all of the reason you just said, and I do, and I do think that that has weight.”

And so I do also think that if Leo wins, I would feel sad because the Michael B. Jordan thing would be so special. That said, Leo is only believable in one battle after another. He is so, he is funny, it's so emotional.

The scene at the end, I, and it's serving an amazing actor, and it, you know, like the

only, the, the true only movie star we have left. So I'd be good with it. I don't know. Let's like what the Timmy fall out a little bit. Okay.

Um, it's a paradox, Marty Supreme is not a hit without the swaggering Marty promo machine. And Timmy, you know, being a rapper, being stunty, talking his shit. And if you don't have that, I don't know the Marty Supreme is quite in this place that it's in right now. And I don't know the challenge career is quite in this place that it's in right now.

The back slide of that is that there are some people who think that there is maybe not as much of a divide between Marty and who Timothy's challenge is in real life. And then you compound that with what I think is mostly internet bullshit, but is like something

earlier this week, and really only took off on Thursday after Oscar voting. It was yes, but has set off a kind of internet fire storm. I don't know how much of a real fire storm that is, but all the Oscar voters I've talked to in the last week were like, they want to talk about that.

Yeah, um, I, I thought those comments were like, maybe poorly phrased, but basically

true and understandable what he was trying to communicate. That being said, if you're in the world of the ballet or opera, I understand that you have certain sensitivities to how your work is characterized, I love the ballet. So I, I don't want it to be denigrated in any way, but it, it's not so much what he said I thought, but just how people feel about him.

That's what that is. Yes.

“I mean, the comments themselves, I think, um, were, uh, poorly phrased or an, a, a, a true thing”

phrased in an unappealing way, which I, who could relate to it more than me, but so I, I get it, and I'm sure he regrets it or energy or maybe he doesn't, but like, he's, he's not wrong, and he was talking about it in the context of, like, going to theaters and wanting to make art that is still commercially viable, which opera in ballet are less so for a number of reasons, which aren't his fault.

And I also love the ballet and the opera, and we are, uh, met opera, streaming subscribers in my home. So how about that? Well, to my dad for that Christmas gift. Right.

But I do think that, I don't know how closely, and I hope not at all closely, you followed the Justin Baldoni Blake lively, uh, ongoing, circus, uh, kicked out after a while.

“I think that's why, as I think they should have checked out long ago, but one of the things”

that was revealed, and one of the major points of contention was, you know, kind of who was hired to start a campaign against her, and how much of that campaign was professional and seated, and then how much of it was just, how much was the seating versus how much was just people waiting on the internet to get their takes off against Blake lively? Yeah.

And I think the answer ultimately, and again, no one's to me, um, this is my interpretation of an ongoing legal case is that it was a little bit of both, but that there were a lot of people waiting who don't like Blake lively for reasons valid and, and strange, both, and, and they had their memes ready, and it feels like that for Timmy as well, where it's like, oh, we found something that we can really, we can start unleashing everything.

Yes. And as soon as you get to the mountain top, that's when they start taking you down. There's definitely something going on there. I, um, I don't know. I'm from New York. His energy is very, very notable to me. I, I,

I like it. I've always liked it. You know, it, it, it, it, it works on me from beginning

to end. I just, it's where I am. I'm in the bag for, for Timmy Shaleman. That's fine. You don't have to be. There's, I, I still think there's a chance he wins. He's still running at like 35% like

“it's not like he's not going to get any votes. Um, this is not, I think that, the thing”

the other thing that goes against him, of course, is that he's a young guy and you know, I, I don't usually win. And MBJ is just now crossing the threshold of when it's like, okay, this is when a person who's been in the industry for while usually starts to win. One important note here. In the past five years, there's been a big trend where leads match with best picture winners for the five past years. There's been a best actor, a best actress

lead winner that has been matched with best picture. Now, it doesn't have to happen, but it being more common. You're kind of your killing Murphy and Oppenheimer sort of wins or Michelle, you know, and everything ever or a little ones. What, MBJ and what that means for sinners feel it feels tied and yet I still predicted MBJ. And now we will talk about best picture. Are you ready? Yes. Okay. Let's read the nominees for

best picture for hopefully the last time. Best picture, Bagoña, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, one battle after another, the secret agent, sentimental value, sinners, and train dreams. Believe it's your turn. Will win, one battle after another, and should win, my favorite film of last year, one battle after another. I agree. I win,

one battle, so you brought up the essential point. And I predicted, so the only category

in which we disagree. We have our picks are 23 for 24. And all it is is supporting actress. Is that right? Did we match on the shorts, too? I believe so. Okay. Unbelievable. Then, and we don't, we don't consult. I guess people are, we do it in separate docs. Should I just have a little fucking gumshin and change my baby Jordan? That's the one race. That's the one race that to me is it should be studied anthropologically. Because it's a great,

we didn't even, we barely mentioned Ethan Hawke. Right. But it's a great collection of performances.

Okay. Best of luck. I never released the Votales. All right. Here's a ton of information for you.

“Here's the thing is, so we are 23 for 24. And the one difference, I also, I picked”

one of Missaku four centers. So I have five centers once, I think, when you asked me. You do. And yet I went with one battle. So when I went, what I was saying about casting. Yes. Score, screenplay, supporting actress, and actor. Yes. And you, for one battle now, currently, have director, screenplay, picture, cinematography, editing, supporting actor, supporting actor. Yeah. Six to five. So six to five, which is more of an even split than we've seen historically,

the past two years. Again, we haven't really had this two people, two films in the race. It's been

the openheimer and everything everywhere, and inora from the very beginning. But yeah, I have five

and six. And I have more acting nominees. I have more above the line, or at least in the movie

“winners for centers. So my math doesn't add up. Well, it doesn't. But it doesn't.”

That'll win more films. It won't battle against an acting award. Yeah, which is usually, that's usually part of the package. Let me just give you some some data points here. One battle after another is dominance across the precursors. Here's everything. It's one. You're ready? Yeah. PGA, DGA, WGA, Ace Eddie for the editors, ASC for the cinematographers, costume design for contemporary film, make up for contemporary film, international awards,

BAFTA, SAZAR, the Australian Academy, televised award shows, critics choice, golden globes, the critics trifecta, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics Circle, National Film Critics Society. Yeah, that's everything. Yeah. The only prize that it doesn't have is best on sample. That's the only prize at SAC. That's everything. This is the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win, and it might not win, it might not.

100% possible. That's sinners could win. But so now we talk about the vibe shift. Yes. And I don't even think vibe shift is totally fair because sinners has also been in the running, I mean, since April, much, much longer just because it's been out for longer. I said in our episode in April of 2025, this movie is getting at least 10 nominations. Right. And it's been loved. It's rewarded at every single award ceremony in one way or another. It has been a part of the

discourse. And there has just been this sense of we don't know. We don't know. It could go either way. And that happened before, SAZAR, which was a real boost to sinners and just also sinners prominent on screen and sinners dominant in an awards setting. So, and in the middle of Oscar voting. So, my best rationalization for this was that the vibe shift is what pushes Michael be Jordan. And then people are like, I haven't been sure what to do. This race has been wide open.

I'm not passionate about Timothy Schallmay or whatever. So, Michael B. And then the one battle is the best picture. And so instead of like a best picture, best direct split, it's a best picture, best actor split. I don't know. Again. I fully agree with you. I mean, that was how I rationalized it. And that something had something strong had to verbal up for sinners because of how beloved it is. And this is the strongest thing that could verbal up. This is the thing where Leo

hasn't really been competing. You know, he hasn't went winning anything. And so that was a place where one battle was not strong. And that was a place where sinners could be much stronger. Maybe this is coped from a couple of one battle fans who just can't see the sinners wave. It could be. That's a crash down on Sunday night. Yeah, but also like the, the list that you just read of pre-cursors, like we have to be real. Like that. That's, it's just, here are two Oscar

“nerds. Like we can only, that's why we can only work within the bounds of what we're seeing.”

That's why it's this battle between precedent and vibes. That's the, that is the question that is happening. It's been very exciting for the race. Here's, this is going to sound like it's a strike in favor of one battle, but it's actually a strike against it, right? This is a really, really, really cool data point if, if our predictions here hold. If one battle after another

wins picture, director, screenplay, editing, and cinematography, it will be the first time

wolves did it in 1990. The last emperor did it in 1987 and Gandhi did it in 1982. Before that,

“you have to go all the way back to GG in 1961 when all five of those awards happened.”

But even then, there was a color category and a black and white category for cinematography. GG won for color and the defiant ones won for black and white. Now, there's a wrinkle here. If Sean Penn does win and you tack on an acting award on top of that five, the only film in the history of the Oscars to do that is Gandhi. Oh, that's it. Schindler's list and went a single acting award? It did not. Ray finds and Liam Mason did not win. Give Ray finds an Oscar.

That, I mean, that is true Oscar history. Yeah. To have that collection of six prizes. Because so many times over the years, you have one cinematography as a very volatile award

where it frequently doesn't go to the best picture winner. The acting awards are not always so

closely associated to historically with best picture winners. They are much more so now, but they usually more like spectacle event films that weren't prized for their performance, their prized, for their scope of their stories. There's this, you know, and one battle in sinners are both a nice kind of convergence of those, those are big scale movies that have great performances in them. So I don't, first of all, I love this, that there's something like this can happen. It's so

exciting as somebody who cares about this stuff so much. But also, that's a, that's a note against one battle that the Academy very rarely does this. It's true though when you were just doing the five nominees and Schindler's list and Spielberg was the last example. I was like that, just cement, that's symmetrical, right? That is, and you know that they obviously, our friends, we saw

the first Q&A between them when we saw one battle after another at the DGA's. They, you know,

they're the savers of TCM, like it, it makes sense that he would be in that league. I don't know, what I've been telling myself is that this is a wacky Oscar's year, but it's wacky in the acting categories. And I'm pretty, too, on the acting categories. And which it's still maybe, which I think which it still is, but that best picture has been decided for a while, even though

“we've been trying to keep it spicy. That's how I'm justified. I think you're right. This is”

easily the closest we've ever matched in our mix. The fact that we matched on all three shorts, the fact that we didn't, I didn't do a lot of zagging here. I, I don't feel good about the MBJ pic, even though I think all the logic that we talked through makes sense, supporting actress if I get a wrong, I can live with that. You know, that's just a thing. It's been a, it's been a weird race. We barely even talked about Tana Taylor. If she was the first person to go up on stage on

Oscar, I wouldn't surprise you there. Yeah. That's just a, that's a wild category. 23 of 24 for us, though, man. I mean, are we, are we just too similar? Are we just, are we, have sharing a hive mind? I mean, yes, we definitely spend way too much time together. We definitely talk about things too much. I do, I wonder if some of it is that there's just two movies. Yeah. When, and two movies, we both like. Yeah. I've got 10 awards going to two movies and you've got 11 awards going to

two movies. Marty Supreme Blanks in my predictions. Me as well.

“Health, didn't deserve it. Secret agent also blank to my predictions. Yeah. Really tough.”

Didn't deserve it. Frankenstein, winner three awards towards three, make up production and costume. That's their choice. Not ours. We don't vote. Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time? What do you call that? I would call that my daily existence. So. I'm talking.

How intrigued. How does it feel? I'm only show us the real you. Never. One of these days. I'm going

to get it out. Get it out and show the world. Any closing thoughts? I'm looking forward to it. Me too. I'm ready. I love watching the Oscars. Me too. I'm very excited for the show. I hope it's a great show. Thank you to everyone who's been listening and following along with us for this very long protracted award season. Yeah. Make it earlier next year. Yeah, please. Earlier. February. Let's go. Thank you to Jack Sanders for his work on this episode and his coverage as

our producer throughout this award season. Thanks. The Lucas Cavanaugh for production support. On Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards. 3 PM PT 6 PM ET tune in. We'll talk about this all over again. And just a reminder, the Oscars start at 4 PM Pacific 7 PM Eastern. You're welcome ABC. And we will come to you immediately after the telecast. Even if it's six

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