Celebration and Mourning: Inside an Iran at War

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So that's hard for you can buy it wherever you get your podcasts. From The New York Times, I'm Michael Bobaro. This is the Daily.

On Sunday, the United States and Israel, pounded Iran with missiles for a second straight day,

destroying more and more power centers of the regime, and according to Wright's groups, bringing the civilian death toll there to well over 100.

“Meanwhile, Iran unleashed a wave of retaliatory attacks that proved deadly.”

Three U.S. troops were killed in action, becoming the first Americans to die in the war.

As one nation we agree for the two American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation.

But increasingly, all eyes were on the Iranian government and the millions of citizens who have long opposed it. And the looming question became whether a weakened Islamic Republic could actually be toppled by its own people. Today, my colleague, Farnaz Fasee, brings us the view of this pivotal moment from inside Iran. It's Monday, March 2nd. Farnaz, thank you for making time for us on Sunday. Really appreciate it.

Thank you for having me, Michael. So, Farnaz, for the people of Iran and for the massive diaspora of Iranians who live outside of the country, including you. Sunday, today, as we speak, is one of those hinged days in history. There was a before and there was an after. And right now, the after is a world in which Iran supreme leader who has been in power for over three decades has been killed and is no longer in power.

“It's one of those historic days that I think if for every Iranian, whether you're a supporter of the government or your opponents, whether you live inside or you live outside, this is a new day.”

This is a new Iran. From the moment we started hearing about Mr. Hollinay being potentially killed, my phone started buzzing. I was getting text messages and phone calls from my friends and family members. And I was also getting text messages and calls from some of my sources in Iran who were asking me, "Do you know anything? Is the news true? Is he gone? What have you heard? No matter what side of the divide you were on." This was a monumental moment.

And today, Iranians woke up to the first day of history without Mr. Hollinay in power.

And we don't know exactly what that's going to mean yet, but this figure who has loomed very large for almost four decades over the fate of Iranians is gone. Some Iranians were celebrating. People were pouring to the streets. I had several video calls with several people I know in Tehran who turned on the camera and showed me cars honking on the streets. People cheering, they were fireworks. People sticking their heads out of the windows and chanting freedom, freedom and this visceral scream. Like a scream of relief almost.

And for the diaspora who scattered all over the world, it was a similar feeling. I watched a group of family members congregate on FaceTime somewhere in the US, somewhere in Europe, somewhere in Iran. And everybody did a video call and some of them were crying. They were just the tears of relief and shock and joy even.

Wow. And there was a lot of cheers. And when you say diaspora, you quite literally mean families who were once together in Iran.

“And presumably scattered to the winds across the world once the Islamic revolution came in 1979.”

Exactly. It feels like a dream for many Iranians that once they used to live a few blocks from each other and have multi-generational family gatherings.

And under Mr. Haune, many of them have not been able to return to Iran.

And many families have just scattered like star dust all over the world and separated from each other. So that's clearly the segment of Iranians both inside and outside the country who may be on the celebratory side of the spectrum in the 24/48 hours since he was killed.

“But those who support him, presumably you've been talking to them as well. What would you characterize as their reaction?”

For Mr. Haune's supporters, this feels like a big loss. His supporters started to come out into the streets in large numbers and going to mosques and praying and crying. It feels like the ground is shifting under them, not only have they lost a religious figure that they revered and believed in, but they've also lost a political leader of a system that they have ideological loyalty to.

“It feels like that is in jeopardy, that they don't know whether this Islamic Republic, that they believe in and they support is going to survive or not without him.”

And you know, this is the reality of Iran, Michael, this polarized society and one wonders whatever comes next, whatever form of government comes next, how are you going to bring these two sides anywhere close to each other or is that even possible. Because the people doing shots and their homes, uncorking champagne, those people would seem to have a very hard time reconciling their reactions and their whole world view with those who are clinging to photos of the now late Supreme Leader in the streets.

Exactly. I don't know how these two sides are going to reconcil. If you had to estimate for us, how big would you describe both of those camps as the supporters, the mourners versus the dissidency opponents, those celebrating his death. I would say that the overwhelming majority of the population in Iran are opponents of the regime, about 80%, and the core supporters are about 20%. And I think we can sort of draw this conclusion from voting patterns in the past couple of years when there's been presidential elections or parliamentary elections, Iranians who are hardcore believers of the regime have gone to polls around 20% has been 20% of the population.

Got it. So you're extrapolating from that, which seems quite reasonable. Right. We can, I think, draw from that and also like in January, literally every small and big town all over Iran saw protests against the government, including the religious sort of strongholds of the government, where there were lots of people out calling for the end of this Islamic regime. If we look at the demographics of the protesters who were killed in January, they're from all ethnic groups from a large geographic area in Iran and different socioeconomic backgrounds.

Well, because his death is so fresh and the reactions as you are describing them are so different, let's talk about this man who is inspiring such profound reactions, harmony, and why he inspires such strong reactions.

Mr. Hamini is the second supreme leader of Iran. The first was founding supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhalo Khomeini. He came to power in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution that toppled the monarchy.

12 days ago, the Ayatollah was operated on and in the attempt to stem intestinal bleeding. Early yesterday, he suffered a heart attack. He whispered Muslim prayers and died.

49-year-old Ali Khomeini was today chosen Homeini's religious successor by Iran's council of senior clerics.

“Mr. Hamini succeeded him in 1989. And it is said that while the first supreme leader led a revolution, Mr. Hamini led a state. He really is the ruler who made sure that the Islamic Republic went from a revolutionary idea.”

Into a state that entrenched power. The Islamic Republic of Iran that we know today that has influenced over proxy militant groups and has a nuclear power and missile and military power was all the vision of Mr. Khomeini. Not only was he the religious leader of she as around the world, but his Iran would also be this country that led anti-imperialism, anti-Americanism. Anti-Israelism? Exactly. In one of his notorious quotes, he said, "The reason Hamas now has rockets and can't attack Israel is because of us.

We enabled them to go from rocks and arrows to missiles and guns with our training and with our funding.

“And of course the thing that he is known for is his role in domestic repression."”

For a few days, it looked like the start of a second revolution. Students on the campus of Tehran University demanding political and social reform, but the response was swift and violent.

Mr. Khomeini had absolute power. He is known for never giving an inch to calls for reform.

Same thing to crush this youthful idealism, not the police or army, but a militia called the Beseech. Defendants of a fundamentalist revolution. Sidelining political opponents.

“These governments want a lot as to say what we want.”

Jailing dissidents. The government's response has been violent, armor-clad police attacking protesters from the backs of speeding motorcycles. Calling for brutal and lethal, crackdowns on protesters. These are some of the most recent images coming out of Iran. The regime caught off the internet in Iran on the 8th of January, hoping to prevent coverage of its crackdown on protesters.

Including the recent wave in January, where he personally ordered the shoot to kill order. That we think killed thousands. Exactly. He ordered security forces to open fire on unarmed protesters with lethal force. And as a result, over three days a massacre happened because Mr. Khomeini did not tolerate descent and wanted to suppress any calls of change. Activists now say that more than 6,000 people were killed in Iran's recent crackdown on nationwide protests and they warned that number could rise.

And yet despite the Supreme Leader's success in holding back protests by being so repressive, what we know, we've talked about it a lot on the show, is that behind the scenes the regime is getting weaker and weaker because the United States and Israel, which increasingly tired of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism, especially after October 7th,

they basically say enough as enough. They start unleashing waves of attacks against Iran, all of which would seem to make the regime very aware that its situation had become precarious.

But over the past couple of days, we now know because the Supreme Leader was taken out with relative ease. It doesn't seem like they were being all that careful or cautious. This was a surprise Michael. Nobody thought that they would find Mr. Khomeini above ground and in his compound during a time where US military had amassed warships and fighter planes all around Iran. But at the end, he was sitting in his office at 9.30 a.m., a next door to him was a high-profile meeting of basically all the senior military commands strategizing for the war.

Why were they so accessible to these attacks that, like you said, everybody seemed to know we're coming?

And I think they miscalculated it briefly.

And what many Iranian officials now say is that Mr. Khomeini had refused to leave his home and his compound and had indicated to people around him that if he's going to get attacked and war starts, he would rather become a martyr. I think that in his mind, his legacy would be better protected if he was seen as somebody who was not in hiding was not afraid, whereas if he would have the fate of Venezuela's Nicolus Maduro and get captured or if his regime would be topples, he would be humiliated, right?

“So I think there was this desire by him to have the kind of ending that he envisioned and he wanted.”

So I think that's the reason why I wanted to talk to Mr. Khomeini, because I think that's the reason why I wanted to talk to Mr. Khomeini, because I think that's the reason why I wanted to talk to him. He represents a massive blow to the regime. Putting Mr. Khomeini aside, they killed the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, the Defense Minister and some other senior officials, but Mr. Khomeini had planned for this possibility.

He had instructed everyone in leadership roles to name four layers of succession.

The plan for the idea that three of every position in the government might end up being killed in what ended up being this weekend's attack and there would still be someone to succeed that person. Yes, exactly.

“So at this moment, when we're talking to you around three PM Sunday, what is the state of that succession in the Iranian government?”

The state moved very swiftly to project a sensor control and orderly transition, while they name a successor for the Supreme Leader, that seems to be where things are standing.

Okay, well, that's the projection of a transition, but is the regime actually in control of Iran and how do we know? Right now, as of Sunday afternoon, the regime is still in control of Iran. We haven't seen any major defections. They are still in control of security on the streets. Their security apparatus are all over the capital. They've set up checkpoints and stopping cars and interviewing surveillance. They also seem to have maintained their military ability to retaliate and strike, still launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at US military targets.

They are attacking Israel and they are firing off missiles and drones to Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. So the succession is working to the extent that the people who homine wanted to be in place in the event of this attack are still the ones doing the job. They're pressing the button, they're firing the missiles, they're making sure the country is retaliating. They wanted to make sure that there's no power vacuum and at the moment, we're not seeing any evidence of a power vacuum. I mean, the reason that matters so much, of course, is because President Trump has been so explicit about his goal here.

regime change. He wants the people of Iran to anticipate a power vacuum and to fill it and to topple the regime. Well, the majority of Iranian people have said that they want this regime toppled, that they want a new Iran.

“Right now, I think the priority for many Iranians is to find safety under bombs and to make sure that their families are safe and they survive and they're scrambling to find food and gasoline and shelter.”

We haven't really seen yet a massive domestic uprising, but it's only day two and we don't know what's possible. All right, think about what was done on day one, right? Yeah, they took out Mr. Commentary on day one and they're still continuing to strike. I think it's going to take some time to figure out what's going to happen in Iran and whether or not this regime will survive. Well, after the break, we're going to talk about what it might look like if the regime does not survive and what it would take for it to be toppled by its own people. We'll do it back.

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For us, I want to return to a number you mentioned much earlier in this conversation, 80%. 80% of Iranians in theory seem to oppose the regime and could be ready to help topple it if at the end of this military bombardment, the regime is in a shambles. So let's talk about that possibility. Based on what you know, what would it take for the opposition in Iran to become organized and confident enough to try to do what President Trump is encouraging them to do. And that many of them have long wanted to do, which is take down this regime. For the Iranian people inside Iran to be able to mobilize in a way that they would lay a central role in toppling the regime, there has to be strategy and planning and some sort of unity from opposition leaders inside the country and outside the country and also a sense that the regime and its oppressive tools.

And it means of crackdown and killing have been significantly weakened or disassembled. Otherwise, if people just come to the streets again, as they did in January and they're on armed, they risk lethal crackdowns and deaths and killings again.

“Understood. But do you see any evidence that the US and Israel in the targets that they've chosen and that they've struck are trying to assist the opposition and trying to disassemble the tools of oppression that you just mentioned?”

I think the difference in this current war in comparison with the June war with Israel is that the targets have expanded to not just military missiles and nuclear sides to structures and buildings and institutions that the government used to oppress and repress. Like the revolution court today was attacked and this is a court that's highly notorious that tried and prosecuted political cases and dissidents.

They attacked the state broadcasting, which is a tool of propaganda and they also went after two military bases belonging to the revolutionary guards and their underlings passage.

“The volunteer playing close militia that we see shooting and killing and beating protesters and they've investigated those two bases.”

So there are some evidence at least that the target is widening and it certainly seems that the goal of the United States and Israel is to facilitate regime change on the ground. Which may or may not ever come to pass, of course. And if there won't be any kind of a revolution here, is there for us a leader within the regime that the US that Israel might find tolerable, who they see as somebody who couldn't theory satisfy what remains of the regime. The loyalists potentially be acceptable to the opposition and that the US and Israel and its leaders feel they can do business with.

Basically the kind of person that the US found in Venezuela after it arrested Nicholas Maduro.

It's interesting you bring up Venezuela because Iranian sources were telling me that one of the conversations they're having in private about succession and about planning amongst themselves is the question of who will be the DLC of Iran referring to Venezuela's vice president.

And some of the names that have come up are technocrats and former generals of the revolutionary guards who are sort of seen as centrist pragmatists.

People who maybe would be open to a change of course. One of the names is Ali Lorgiani, the head of the National Security Council, who's effectively running the country right now.

He's sort of been outcast from the close circle of Mr. Harmoni. So these are some of the names I've heard, but I want to mention here that for that 80% who want wholesome change and for the opposition in dissidents, no figure that is associated with the Islamic Republic's regime is going to be acceptable.

Because every single one of these people was part of a system and had a role in those oppressions and killings and repressions that have been part and parcel of this government for 47 years.

But the question is whether the US and President Trump will ultimately decide that he doesn't want to risk instability in Iran, he doesn't want to risk civil war and would rather engage with someone from that system that would be willing to make concessions or not. And we heard President Trump say today that he's open to speaking to Iran's new leaders and that he's heard that there are some options for succession. So I think he's kind of signaling to the Iranian regime that if you do have a character who's willing to give me what I want and make the kind of concessions that I want on nuclear and military and missiles and policy.

And I will back that leader. It's not back him at least I'll engage and entertain the possibility of that leader that will be detrimental to the aspirations of democracy and freedom for the Iranian people. Right in a very critical sense that would be at odds with regime change and so President Trump is going to have to decide what really matters most of him changing the regime or creating a stable Iran. Those may be in conflict. Right and you know, I think it would be hugely disappointing to many people in Iran both inside and outside because you know President Trump for all the reasons we talked about about sort of the 80% that are celebrating the events in Iran and the war.

“He's seen as a figure who has helped their aspirations for change right now, but I think that that could quickly change and they may feel betrayed if the US strikes a deal with the successors of Mr. Harmonie.”

Well, no matter who leads Iran next, I wonder if the events of the past few days more or less guarantees that its government is really never the same.

If it's an insider from the regime running it. And by that, I really mean it's hard to fathom Iran returning to the system of proxies and state sponsored terror that really defined harmonies 35 years in power.

“For the simple reason that over time, it resulted in his own death. It made the US and it made Israel believe that the only way to solve the problem was to take out the leader.”

I think the Islamic Republic as we knew it is over. I think the state that Mr. Harmonie Iran, which was hostile to the US, hostile to its Arab neighbors, hostile to Israel and defined militancy and terror and hostage taking and repression of its own citizens is not sustainable.

And cannot survive in the new realities of the Middle East where we've seen Israel sort of prioritize its safety and survival of both all else.

Post October 7, I don't think it is an Iran that will be tolerated by its arrest if population that won't change. And even the all the attacks we've seen in the region and against Arab states, I don't think Iran's neighbors will tolerate that kind of a state and this feeling that they're at risk of being attacked and sort of an unpredictable government next door that nobody knows what it will do and how it will react.

“And I don't think the United States will necessarily tolerate it either. So I think all the odds are stacked against the Islamic Republic continuing as it has been for the past seven years.”

Well, just to end for us, I wonder to that point, what members of the Iranian opposition and the expat world, diaspora, you even, what you're allowing yourself to hope for and to dream of for Iran in this moment of such extraordinary flux. And fear, but also possibility.

Today, I have hope.

Of returning, a pretty modest goal.

“You know, that's what a lot of Iranians who've been exile and who can't go back say.”

They say that it's pretty bare minimum to want to see your relatives and visit your home country. And it's a right that has been robbed from many people. And I think many Iranians, the world over, have a glimmer of hope. Well, let me ask about a perhaps less modest set of possibilities. I'm thinking about the people who were taking shots on Saturday.

I mean, what do they dare to think about beyond just visiting relatives back in Iran? They dare to dream of a free Iran where political prisoners are free, where young people who take to the streets to demand for a better living are not shot and killed. And people are not struggling to make ends meet because it's a resource-rich country, where parents are not mourning their children. Watching the videos of people taking to the streets and chanting freedom, freedom in reaction to Mr. Harmoni's killing,

it may sound to an American or Western audience that this is a modest aspiration,

“but I think for the Iranian people who have sort of long aspired and worked toward having a free democratic,”

secular country, this is a big dream.

And as a reporter was covered Iran for three decades, I never thought that I would be writing this news or reporting this.

So I looked at the front page of the New York Times today with the headline and thought, wow. This is a headline and a story I never thought I would write in my lifetime yet. Or for us, thank you very much, we really appreciate it. Thank you for having me, Michael.

“In an interview on Sunday night with the Times, President Trump said that the American military assault against Iran could last up to four to five weeks.”

When pressed on his plan for who should lead Iran's government, the president offered several seemingly inconsistent visions. One scenario he said was that the United States identified a cooperative leader from inside the regime. Another scenario he said was that Iran's elite military forces would simply lay down their weapons and surrender to the people of Iran. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.

[Music]

Here's what else you need, tonight.

The Constitution can't be changed by statute. The Constitution says no declaration of war without Congress, the president has called this war against Iran. On Sunday, Congressional Democrats questioned the legality of President Trump's military strikes against Iran, saying that it was a clear cut case where he needed Congress's approval but failed to seek it. One of those Democrats, Senator Tim Kane of Virginia, has introduced her resolution seeking to end the use of American military forces in Iran.

The president not only did not come to Congress to seek a debate or vote, he acted without even notification to the vast majority of us. This isn't illegal war, I am. As markets opened on Sunday night, oil prices rose 10%. Highlighting the economic risks of the conflict in Iran. The U.S. Israeli attacks on Iran could severely restrict oil and gas supplies around the world.

Even if the disruption is brief, it will almost certainly make energy more expensive around the world.

It was edited by Liz O'Balen and Paige Coward, contains music by Alicia B.E.T. and Dan Powell.

“The episode was engineered by Chris Wood.”

That's it for daily. I'm Macamabah. See you tomorrow.