Who’s Really Running Iran?

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- From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroff. This is the Daily. It was a chaotic weekend of news out of Washington. There was a shooting at an event where President Trump and top cabinet officials were gathered,

which were following and will update on later in the show. And also, Trump abruptly and dramatically called off the latest round of peace talks with Iran at the very last minute, leaving the fate of the ceasefire in limbo.

“One of the main reasons Trump gave was that he doesn't think”

Iran is sending credible negotiators to the table and says he has no idea who's actually in charge of the country. Today, my colleague Farnaz Fasihi takes us inside the world of Iran's leaders

and explains what her reporting reveals about what they really want. (upbeat music) It's Monday, April 27th. Farnaz, it's wonderful to have you back on the show.

- Thank you for having me, Natalie. - So, what do we know about what just happened? Where we saw Trump suddenly back away from face-to-face negotiations with Iran. It almost seemed like over the weekend,

he kind of turned the team of American negotiators

around as they were basically on their way to the airport.

- We started this weekend thinking that Iranians and Americans were going to meet in Islamabad for a second round of negotiations. Iran's Foreign Minister went to Islamabad and the US special envoy Steve Whitkoff

and President Trump's son in large Jarrett Kushner were scheduled to also fly to Pakistan on Saturday and everyone anticipated another round of talks. And then we started getting mixed messages. The Iranians said, oh well, we're not meeting directly

with the Americans and the Foreign Minister left Pakistan and President Trump abruptly announced on social media that he was canceling the talks and not sending his own voice to meet with Iranians. And now we're in a state of limbo.

There's no talks. There's a unilateral ceasefire declared by President Trump without a set deadline. And the Iranians are under a sea blockade.

“So, the situation I think is very fragile.”

- And what about the President's claim, which he made on social media over the weekend? And he's made before that the Iranian regime is in complete disarray and that he doesn't even know who's making the decisions in the country?

- Well, since the start of this war, some of the big questions have been who's running Iran, who's making the decisions, where is the new Supreme Leader, most of Ahamenei, and are there divisions at the top?

I spent the past month reporting these questions, talking to sources inside Iran. I interviewed 22 people inside Iran. Some of them were senior officials,

some were members of the Revolutionary Guards.

Some of them know most of Ahamenei or his father. And all of them understand the framework of how decisions are being made in Iran and how the country is being run. And that has helped me answer this puzzle.

- Through just extraordinarily deep reporting. So, what have you learned? - Well, I'll tell you, in my interviews over the past month, every time I would ask that question from sources, I would say, who is making the decisions?

Who's running the country? And I would hear Sepah, Sepah means the Revolutionary Guards. No one said the Iotola. No one said it's the Supreme Leader. And that was just such a difference

to how things were done before the war, where the senior Iotola Hamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran

for 37 years, always had the last word

on all decisions that were critical to the state. And before the war, whenever I would ask, who's making the decision, it was that we're waiting for Mr. Hamenei to decide, we're waiting for him to say yes or no.

And now it's the generals. Since the war started, a cohort of senior Revolutionary Guards generals have sort of taken over running and managing the war and running the country.

Okay, you're saying something that's actually pretty stark, which is worth just lingering on for a moment, which is that the Supreme Leader is not the one calling the shots here. And so I have to ask when we say the Revolutionary Guards are,

The Revolutionary Guards are the most elite military force in Iran.

They were created in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution as sort of a line of defense for the regime. But over the past, newly has a century that the Islamic Republic's been in power, the Revolutionary Guards have expanded the reach

and expanded their power. When we hear think about a military force, we think of people in uniform who are in military bases and making military decisions. Right.

The Revolutionary Guards are all over the place in Iran.

“They hold key positions in the government.”

Many lawmakers, ministers, presidents have been former Revolutionary Guards. The current speaker of parliament was leading the negotiations with the US as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards. The head of the National Security Council

is a Revolutionary Guards commander. And they also have a big footprint in Iran's economy. They have a huge conglomerate in economic sector from energy to transportation to even tourism that you can think of.

So they really are the parallel power in Iran. And now as a result of the word, they've become the dominant power. That's fascinating. You know, it's part of a pattern of the country

becoming more and more militarized and the influence of the clerics fading. So this ubiquity of the Guards, that's something that's been developing over time. They're presence everywhere.

This isn't new, per se.

“Right. It's not new, but it's never been this dominant.”

The Revolutionary Guards have been rising for years. The former Supreme Leader really relied on them for securing Iran's borders, for navigating and cultivating relationships with proxy militant groups in the region

that were lined with Iran ideologically, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza and the Shia militia in Iraq. And also, whenever there was an uprising inside the country and protests against the government,

it was the Guards that took over security and crushed those protests. And in exchange, the Guards were sort of given more of a free hand to enter politics and to enter the economy and that empowered them in ways that was far beyond

their military role in Iran. But they could only rise so far under the leadership of Ayutollah Hamini, the father, because he was the person with the final authority over everything.

But this war created an opening for them. And the Guards saw the killing of Ayutollah Hamini by the United States and Israel on the first day of the war as an opportunity, as an opportunity to put in place as new supreme leader who had close ties to them

and through whom they could rule Iran. Right, you told us last time on the show

that the Guards were absolutely critical

in putting the younger Hamini in place as supreme leader. They basically got him there. Exactly, they totally got him there. I mean, I think the last time we spoke, we talked about the succession war and game of thrones

that was going on to replace the senior Ayutollah and that the revolutionary Guards really pushed to have the sun succeed him. And so the reason you're saying that the new supreme leader has less sway over the Guards is in part

because he's indebted to them. Is that right?

“I think there are a number of factors, Natalie.”

One is that he's indebted to them for his position as the new supreme leader. He's also indebted to them for the survival of the regime, right?

I mean, the revolutionary Guards basically managed

to contain the threat that this war brought to the regime. When they's really in Americans, their strikes happen. Two military superpowers attacking Iran, the regime thought that this was an existential threat, right? But now they seem confident that they've contained the threat

and there's no signs of them cracking or defecting or the Islamic Republic toppling. There are other reasons for why he's deferring to the Guards as well. Part of it is his injuries.

Most of a comedy was gravely injured in their strikes that targeted his father's compound. Right, that's been a big question mark is exactly how injured. Very injured.

I've heard that one of his legs may be amputated. He's had three operations and is waiting for a prosthetic leg. He's had operations on one of his arms and hands and his face and lips have been burned severely. And the burns are so extensive

that he can't even speak properly, which is one of the reasons why we haven't heard his voice

Yeah, I was gonna ask if that's one of the reasons why he hasn't made a public appearance. I mean, I'd imagine that also limits his clout but it sounds like he just can't right now. No, he can't right now.

Sources that I talk to who know him said that he doesn't want to appear weak and vulnerable

in the first public address that he gives

to the people whether it's audio or visual. The extent that the public has heard from him has been several written statements that the state media has read or it's been published on social media.

And another reason is also the logistics of his security situation. Talk to me about that. Well, from the first day of the war, there's really said that whoever succeeds

Mr. Harmony will be a target. And specifically said that Moshabba is on the assassination target list.

“So he's been moved to a very high secure secret place.”

Access to him is almost impossible for government officials or military commanders. There's no electronics around him. He can't speak on the phone or engage electronically in any way. And communicating with him

is sort of the old ways of writing long hand letters ceiling it in an envelope and having a human chain of careers, carry the letters to his secure place and then back. And logistically, that takes time. So you can imagine that it's hard for him

to be making decisions in real time. And he would have to delegate some authority to the generals that he trusts. OK. So you've described this situation in which

there's this empowered group of generals

within the revolutionary guards who

technically answer to the Supreme Leader. But that Supreme Leader is in hiding. He's badly injured. He's really hard to get to.

“So how do they actually make decisions in that scenario?”

Like how does that work? You, in Iran, particularly in this new era, decisions are being made more collectively and collaboratively. The generals definitely are leading the charge on calling the shots.

But there's a debate going on. In fact, people who I spoke to in Iran were telling me that the decision making is now kind of like a border directors that the IOTOLI sort of the director of the board and the generals are the members of the board

and that, yeah, it's not a one-man show anymore. And when those decisions are eventually brought to the Supreme Leader through careers to his hideout, is he essentially being asked to rubber stamp them?

What's his role in this? His role is to give them feedback and to approve them because one way that the generals can tell the public that the decisions that they're making is legitimate, particularly when it comes to giving any concessions

to the United States, is to say, look,

“what we're deciding is endorsed by the Supreme Leader,”

so everyone should go along. As to whether it's a rubber stamp, well, to the best of our knowledge, he hasn't objected to any of their decisions yet and he's gone along.

Part of that reason is because of the relationship that he has with the generals and the trust that he has. Okay, talk to me about that, that relationship in that trust, how should we understand it?

So we always knew that he had close ties to the guards,

but my reporting shows that these ties go much deeper and they go back decades. One way to understand it is that the Supreme Leader now has some of his best friends. People he has known since he was a teenager

and grew up with in charge. And that story goes back to when he was 17 years old in the 1980s. He volunteered to go fight in the Iranian rock war and he was placed in a revolutionary guards battalion

called the Happy Brigade. And in the Happy Brigade, there were other young soldiers who had volunteered. And I interviewed one of his close friends who was deployed with him to that brigade.

And he told me that look, this experience really shaped us. And those bonds we made with the battle buddies, really like Harry does and became lifelong. As this group aged, they climbed the ranks of power. Some of his friends from this particular brigade

became key, influential politicians and military commanders and intelligence officials. And we're kind of seeing that playout right now. It's a relationship of friends who are on first name basis and of peers.

So you're saying part of this trust is really that Hamanai has deep ties with these people to go back years. I mean, he trusts them because he's known them for a very long time and has worked directly with him.

Exactly. And that's become a central dynamic of this relationship

So when you add this whole picture together,

what you're describing is a pretty fundamental shift in the way that the entire country and its government works before the Supreme Leader empowered the guards, yes, but also directed them. And now it kind of seems like the tale is wagging the dog.

Yes, you know, I think when most people Natalie think of Iran, they think of an Islamic theocracy run by clerics.

“We've always referred to Iran as a clerical rule, right?”

And we're seeing that change in real time now. It's shifting away and transforming from a clerical theocracy to a military dictatorship with a cleric as its leader. So I think this change could have surprising implications

for Iran and also for negotiations with the United States. We'll be right back. My name is Thomas Gibson, I'm a journalist of the New York Times. I served in the Marine Corps as an infantryman. When it comes to reporting on the front line,

a lot of the same basics are play. You're looking at the map of where you're going, if you're on a paved road, field roads, or a hospital nearby, is your body armor,

a fix for the first aid kit, is everyone.

Know where that first aid kit is? We arrive in a military position.

“I get out of the car, I look at my watch.”

You know, I set a timer no more than an hour. I'm listening for drones, jets, checking with a team, is everyone comfortable. And if they are, then we proceed. Fun line reporting is dangerous,

but I think nothing is more important than talking to the people involved. You know, hearing their sorrows and being able to connect that with people thousands of miles away. Anything that can make something like this more personal,

I think, is well worth the risk.

New York Times subscribers make it possible

for us to keep doing this vital coverage. If you'd like to subscribe, you can do that at nytimes.com/subscribe. - For us, just explain why it matters that the power structure in Iran,

“as you just told us, is shifting to one,”

where the military, the guards really hold all the cards and the clerics are secondary. - Well, for Iranians, it could be worse politically. It could be more repression if that's that all possible, because we've seen the guards over the years,

whenever there's a protest or uprising, take control of crackdowns and killings and crushing the protests. So it's very likely that descent will be less tolerated that there'll even be more crackdowns.

But in terms of negotiations with the United States or the way that Iran might deal with the West, the guards could be more pragmatic than the clerics and their religious ideology. - Hold on, what the military hardliners

could be more pragmatic? How? - Well, because these generals are not as motivated and driven by the cleric ideology that defined Iran in the past 47 years,

sort of the death to America, the religious theocracy, what motivates these generals is power and money. And for both of those things to happen, the regime needs to survive and it needs to thrive economically. - So when you say these generals are not ideological,

it sounds like what you're saying is, they're not really driven as much by a cause. They're driven essentially by self-preservation. It is worth noting that this is definitely not how we've been talking about them up until this point.

We've been talking about them as hardliners. - Right, the view of this Islamic Republic from the outside is an ideological theocracy driven by anti-American and anti-Israeli and religious Islamic ideology.

And that's sort of how they've organized themselves for much of the time that they've ruled. There's definitely a faction still within the system that is very hardlinen that is driven exactly by those ideologies, but they've been kind of sidelined

from decision-making and the generals who are now in charge have a real interest in making a deal with the United States because they view this as survival. And that's a real shift because remember,

the former Iotullah Hamanai, the Supreme Leader,

“had banned Iranians from directly engaging with Americans.”

But five weeks after the US killed, there was the Supreme Leader and waging a vicious war against Iran suddenly, the commanders of the revolution guards are sitting across the table from Vice President, Jady Vance.

I would not believe it if someone had told me that five weeks ago. - But can I just raise a question about this on their pragmatism? We have seen these generals in charge

really willing to use hardline tactics, like they've been willing to hold up the straight. They've been willing to bomb their neighbors to sokass in the region. Does that bear on their pragmatism?

How do you make sense of that? - We've seen the generals deploy tactics that they thought would preserve the Islamic Republic system and regime by escalating the war and making it very costly

for not just the US and Israel, but also for all the Arab countries by blowing up the region,

“thinking that this would create deterrence, right?”

But we've also seen that they've discovered the straight of hormones as a new cart, as something that they could upend the global economy with and have impact on the energy supplies of the world at fertilizer surprise.

And all commercial ships, oil tankers, they're using these tactics because they want to gain leverage at the negotiating table. Leverage that they can come sit across this table

from the United States and say, in exchange for opening the straight, we want you to lift the sanctions against us so we want you to unfreeze billions of dollars of our assets that are frozen.

So that's the key thing to remember

is that there's a strategy behind the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' moves. - Okay, you're starting to get into this, but let's talk about the actual terms of any deal. You said these generals are open to a real given take

with the American side. So what are they willing to offer? And what do they want? - The most important incentive for Iran for its leaders and the revolutionary guards

is to reach some sort of an end to hostilities and to get sanctions relief. Iran's economy was in shambles even before the war. Its currency was plunging. In inflation was skyrocketing.

And the war just made everything worse. And there's also on top of that an estimate of from 300 billion to one trillion dollars of economic losses as a result of the war. In order for Iran to rebuild and reconstruct,

it needs to lift sanctions and it needs to get access to its funds and sort of the global financial markets. - From Iran's perspective, basically, the idea is look, the United States and Israel

have really destroyed a lot of our country. We need money to rebuild it. - Exactly, we need money to rebuild it. We need money to improve the economy because one of the big sources of descent

and protests has been economically driven. And you know, one of the things that they've done is they've proposed a very detailed list of ways in which American companies can come to Iran and invest in Iran.

For the first time in 47 years, the generals have gone to the Americans and said, if there's a deal, your oil and shipping companies can come and invest in Iran and be getting help us reconstruct and rebuild.

And that's something that's never been done before.

The senior oil to the harmony had specifically banned all American companies from coming to Iran after the 2015 nuclear deal. And now the generals are doing a way with that order. - They're actually, you're saying,

talking about inviting the Americans in as investors, as collaborators, you're saying working with them to rebuild the country really. - Yes, exactly. These generals are basically appealing

to President Trump's business side and deal making side. They're trying to create financial incentives for the Trump administration to engage with Iran. Similar to what a lot of other countries have done. - Just fascinating.

What about the other sticking points of any deal? For example, the big one, restricting the enrichment of uranium that the Iranians could use to build a bomb. Where do they stand on that?

- These are sticking points, Natalie. To what level Iran is willing to stop enriching uranium, whether it's gonna be a suspension or shutting down its nuclear programs. And what it's going to do with the stockpile

of highly enriched uranium that it has? These are issues that have not been resolved.

“But I think the most important thing for Iran”

is to say face. They don't want to look as if they've surrendered.

that I have achieved something that no American president

has achieved. I've destroyed Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. And he wants to say that the war forced Iran to capitulate. And Iran is absolutely adamant.

Whatever deal it reaches, it's also able to save face.

“And a lot of I think the tension is now around this idea”

that how do we reach a deal where we don't look like we gave something that we weren't willing to give before the war as a result of the war? - Right, and part of the tension there is that President Trump also needs to be able to save face.

And message to the American public that he actually got something out of this war and that what he got was better than the deal that had already been achieved under Obama to restrict and cap uranium enrichment in Iran.

So both sides are dealing with that face saving impulse. - Exactly, both sides are dealing with that. President Trump also needs to be able to say that I achieved something from this very unpopular war as well. - Okay, let's talk about the straight of war moves.

The million dollar question on everybody's mind

will things go back to normal in the straight or does Iran and its leaders now see this as theirs to control as they see fit?

“- Iran and its leaders view the straight of war”

laws as their territory. They've now discovered that they can control it that they can even threaten ships by suggesting there are minds at the bottom of the seas and of course insurance companies are not going to risk it and that alone will upend the global shipping and energy and economy.

So they need to have a tool in their disposal and they're trying to figure out how to monetize it because they've calculated that if they told the ships that are passing through the straight of war laws, they can make a lot more money than they do

from their old revenues.

- Oh wow, so even here you see their pragmatism at work,

looking for money-making opportunities, calculating the best way to do that. For us, what about Israel? Because Israel's been this other major factor that's been affecting the negotiations.

A potential Israeli attack is part of what's keeping the eye to total in hiding and really affecting the way the leadership works. Are the guards assuming that Trump can keep Israel from waging the kinds of attacks that we've seen destabilize these negotiations?

How do they view Israel in this? - They view Israel as a major threat that could still be a threat even after conventional war is over. Iran and Israel were engaged in a shadow war for many, many years that I've written about

with my colleague in Israel, Ron and Bergman, Israel had assassinated multiple Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders and done covert operations and attacks on military sites and nuclear sites. The threat of Israel will be there

and also the threat that they might covertly try to assassinate the Supreme Leader or any other official.

“So I think that they believe that the United States”

has a lot of influence and power over Israel and that once there's a ceasefire, it also extends to Israel, but I don't think there's a guarantee that Israel's going to not continue the covert operations.

- Got it. So essentially Israel remains this big wild card and the negotiations are now stalled on the other sticking points. But can I ask, what is the ideal realistic outcome

of these negotiations for the people leading Iran right now? - That's a really good question. And the answer might surprise you. I think the general leading the negotiations are looking at a kind of a deal that ends

this limbo status they've been in with the United States for 47 years where Iran is not really at war with the US, but there's this threat hanging over it. They keep saying we want a grand deal.

We want to reach a big deal that will be the end of hostilities and it could sort of stabilize Iran if that happens. Now it's not clear whether that's gonna happen or not. This is sort of the ideal situation for them

that they have lasting peace, sanctions are removed and that American companies come in, investments come in and Iran can stabilize economically as well as politically. It's interesting, we did not get in Iran

the kind of regime change that President Trump and his allies forecast and maybe imagined would come of this war. But just in terms of these negotiations, these peace talks is the president right in some sense when he says that there are now more reasonable people

I think in some ways, yes. The president has said the war brought regime change in Iran. There's clearly not been a regime change. The Islamic Republic is still very entrenched and we still don't know how this new era of leadership

is going to evolve when things stabilize when much of a harmony comes out of hiding is going to retain power what that dynamic will be

if the revolutionary gods get the money,

how they're going to spend it, are they going to rearm their proxies and what the political repression in Iran is going to look like. The situation is very fluid, right?

And of course, there's a risk that they're going to overplay their hands using all the levers that they think they have in negotiations. But on this very narrow question of whether the people sitting across the table from the American negotiating team

are more motivated to reach a deal. I think yes, they are. Well, for us, thank you so much. We really appreciate it.

Thank you so much for having me, Natalie.

We'll be right back.

“Here's what else you need to know today.”

New information continued to emerge about Saturday's shooting at the White House Correspondence dinner in DC. The incident started when a gunman attempted to storm the annual event where President Trump

and senior cabinet officials were in attendance. The attacker ran through a security checkpoint and exchanged fire with the authorities before being subdued and taken into custody. He was armed with knives, a shotgun, and a handgun.

Our colleague Sean McCreech was there as part of a pool of reporters covering the president and he witnessed the chaotic scene as it unfolded. We were sort of milling about looking for seats, trying to connect to the Wi-Fi, I asked a young secret

service agent to take me to the bathroom. A moment later, we were both in there, washing our hands, making chit chat. And suddenly, we heard all this yelling, all this commotion, and he looked at me, his eyes grew wide,

and we both darted out of the bathroom. Turn the corner, and there were probably five or six agents with guns drawn pointed right at our chest like this. And in about two seconds, they sort of assessed that we weren't a threat, and then began yelling at us

to get down and to cross the hall. And we had no idea what we were walking into. - Go ahead, I'll do something, I can't move back up. - Inside the main ballroom, journalists and other attendees

“hit the floor to take cover, while secret service officers”

missed away top trump officials and their spouses. - One of the things that made it such a crazy scene was that the people who were running around the hallways

with basically machine guns were also wearing

tuxedos and suits, because so many of the agents were dressed up like party guests. And so you really had no idea what was going on, because every which way you looked, you didn't know, who had a gun, what was going on.

Cabinet members were running across the hall. It just felt like total chaos. (dramatic music) - About an hour later, back at the White House, Trump addressed reporters, many of whom were attendees

at the Gallo. - Nobody told me this was such a dangerous profession. If Marco would've told me maybe I wouldn't have run, maybe I would've said, I'll take a pass. Now it's a dangerous profession, but I don't even know where--

- He said he'd plan to deliver a scathing speech at the event, but now he wanted to emphasize the need for national unity and bipartisan healing. I was all set to a really rip it, and I said to my people, this would be the most inappropriate speech ever made

if I said, so I have to say it. I don't know if I could ever be as rough as I was going to be tonight.

“I think I'm going to be perfectly, very nice.”

I'll be very boring at the next time, but-- - He also said that the shooting was another reason to build out a larger ballroom in the East Wing of the White House, which would have stronger security measures built in.

- I didn't want to say this, but this is why we have to have full of the attributes of what we're planning at the White House. It's actually a larger room, and it's a much more secure.

We need the ballroom, that's why secret service,

“that's why the military are demanding it.”

- The authorities have identified the suspect in the attack

as cold Thomas Allen, a 31-year-old from California.

In a note that law enforcement attributed to the suspect,

“he said he was targeting administration officials,”

and he conveyed deep anger at the president

without mentioning him by name. He said to be a reigned in federal court on Monday.

“Today's episode was produced by Mary Wilson, Nina Feldman,”

Stella Tan, and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by Michael Benoit and Patricia Willens, and contains music by Mary and Lasano, Pat McCusker, and Dan Powell. Our theme music is by Wonderley.

This episode was engineered by Chris Wood. That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie Kitroleff. See you tomorrow. [BLANK_AUDIO]