Megan Rapinoe's Horrible Take, Trump Torches NYT, and Media Distorts Savannah Guthrie’s Message, with Michele Tafoya and Tom Bevan

>> Welcome back to Afterparty Everyone, the show for people who like their news.

“I'm going to be a little bit lighter, maybe a little bit later.”

I'm still rolling with that tagline. We'll see how long it sticks for. Tonight we're going to be joined by a Minnesota Senate candidate, Michelle Tafoya, and then Tom Bevan, a real clear politics. Make sure to support our independent journalism by clicking the subscribe button on YouTube.

It helps us so much, also wherever you get your podcasts, we appreciate it. We're going to start with Michelle in just one moment and believe me, we have a lot to get to in Minnesota. I know you believe me, probably don't need to convince you of that. Protesters were back at it. They were there at city's church in St. Paul, just some time for Easter, of course.

The state just continues to be plagued with chaos and division as many of you know. So there's a lot to get to with Michelle, then Tom Bevan's going to join us to break down Donald Trump's major press conference. Today, including his brutal back and forth with the New York Times and some some big news about what he's planning to do with that deadline tomorrow. The people of Iran are bracing for the attacks that Donald Trump is threatening. So just hours to go on that and Tom is here to break it down.

He's also a polling guru, so we are going to get his take on some big new numbers showing that both Trump and the Democrats look like they're in trouble right now. How does that work? How are Trump and Democrats in trouble at the same time? Tom's gonna explain. And finally, if you're just tuning in for the first time in your thinking, wow, what a well-style host. So in so fashionable, do not get used to it. I was on the Megan Kelly show today and Megan and her wonderful team gave me a makeover.

I'm always obviously incredibly beautiful.

So today's just on another level and I apologize to the listening audience that you're missing out on this that you've been deprived of all of this. Finally, one announcement, my brother's fiance created this after-party cup for me. And so now I have a corona light in the after-party cup.

“So shout out to her. I think it looks pretty cool. All right, that's enough of me.”

You're gonna take a quick, quick, quick, quick break and be back with Michelle to FOIA in just one moment. But first, over the years I have been clear about this. I am not just pro-birth. I am pro-life. There's a big distinction between those two things and being pro-life means standing with mothers not only before the baby is born but long after. And that is exactly why I partner very proudly with pre-born. Now pre-born doesn't just save babies. They make motherhood abundantly possible. They provide free ultrasound and share the truth of the gospel with women in need.

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All right. I'm excited. Now to bring in Michelle Tafoyos, she's a Republican candidate for Senate and Minnesota. For a time any award-winning broadcaster, former NFL sideline reporter, Michelle, every time I've talked to you, I've been star-struck. Thank you for being here. I'm the one who stars-struck today because you are styled so beautifully. I wish that your audio only audience could see you.

In that stunning green, the hair. It's all just chefs' kiss, as they say. Well, right back at you, Michelle. And I wanted to start just by asking why you know, you have been. You've been doing TV for so long. I feel like what you were doing was so fun and exciting. And now you're going into politics and politics is a mess. Republicans don't typically win statewide and Minnesota. There's so many challenges in front of you.

“So why do it? Why put yourself through this, Michelle?”

You know, the question about Minnesota, one of our most, one of our most beloved senators is Senator Rudy Boschwoods, who was in the Senate when Reagan was in office. So it's been a while. He is in my corner and he really believes that I can win. So look, I got into it. Why? Because yeah, I had a great career. I'm like, there's no question. It was fun, the Olympics, the NBA, the NFL, all of it.

And what I could do to serve the country that I love.

And I guess I really got pushed over the edge when I saw how declining, how indecline Minnesota is was is. And that concludes everything for public education and crime to all the chaos that you've been talking about the fraud. This stuff just made me think, I can't just sit here and look at this.

“I think that I have a platform that I can use and I think I can win.”

And so yeah, odds against us, no question, but we feel really good about where we are. And I know every candidate says says that. But I think our metrics tell a good story. It's also kind of a new time in politics, which is interesting in that campaigns are done differently. I mean, right now you're talking to me on a podcast presumably from an easily accessible studio. You're not in a TV studio. But in New York, you're taking this message straight from your own studio onto like independent platforms.

And I feel like having done what you've done for so long. You're very prepared for the new messaging environment because you understand the kind of normal person given your career.

“You've probably interacted with normal people every single day if your life would come up to you and say, oh man, Michelle, it's a FOIA.”

It gives you actually good preparation for this media environment I would imagine.

It absolutely has. I mean, all of my entire career has. You get as many reps as I've had over the years, Emily, and you think, you know, it's it becomes almost second nature.

But this is a new animal in that, you know, we're talking about issues that affect people's lives. We're talking about fraud. We're talking about taxes. We're talking about health care. We're talking about the war and Iran. We're talking about all kinds of things. So, you know, I spent the last three and a half years doing a podcast in my own and really digging in deep to those issues with a lot of guests. And that was great, great exposure for me to talk to these people and to learn and to grow my wealth of knowledge.

But also just to yet it to master the messaging. There's a lot to this. And you said normal people, which I smile at because there are a lot of normal people in the world.

“And you know, right now we tend to be very polarized. I think a state like Minnesota is really looking for someone who can speak to both sides. And I think that's what I bring.”

Yeah, that's interesting because I wanted to talk to you a little bit about some of the weirdos, the abnormal people who gather outside of city stretch in St. Paul for what else? There's Sunday, where else would they be on Easter Sunday, but outside of city stretch in St. Paul, which is of course where the protesters stormed as Don Lemon live streamed the activism, whatever he called it. Back, that was February, I guess, man. So a protester named Emily Phillips was arrested yesterday and then released today after a judge was appointed by Tim Walls dismissed the charges.

So let's first take a look at what the scene was outside of city's church. You can, as you can see it on the screen there, they're shouting obscenities, they're children nearby. It's nasty. Here was Emily Phillips leaving jail and giving what I could only, I couldn't help it be amused by this very self-serious speech, Michelle. Let's take a look at Emily Phillips. [applause]

Emily, amazing. I think all of you for being here, I think, Church of Paul and in James Cookier.

And it was cold and I was uncomfortable, but nothing happened. I am out, the charges been dismissed. Yeah, let's go. [applause] Oh, that's lovely. That's lovely. Well, your governor, Michelle, had this to say at the big no kings protest in St. Paul last week. They have been radicalized, but it's only by kindness. Let's take a listen.

They call us radicals. I see that the president said it's a bunch of radicals. You damn right, we've been radicalized. Radicalized by compassion, radicalized by decency, radicalized by due process, radicalized by democracy, and radicalized to do all we can to oppose authoritarianism. [applause] Is Tim Walls radically decent, and the protesters are they radically decent, Michelle?

where every single minisotin who is a taxpayer, and lots of other Americans, because a lot of this was federal taxes,

were robbed of their hard earned cash because they thought that it should go to a leering center, or, you know, the feeding our future, which no one got fed. Where's the compassion in that? Where's the compassion in allowing girls sports to be, you know, have males playing and taking roster spots away from girls, taking scholarship opportunities away from girls. Where's the compassion? I know he's going to say the compassion is on behalf of the transatlic. No one's saying that athlete can't compete.

But as the IOC just said, we've got to compete in your division. We fought so long for Title IX, and now they're just sort of putting it in a shredder.

“Where's the compassion there? Where's the compassion in defunding the police, which minisotin was the, you know, the epicenter of during the George Floyd riots?”

Where was the compassion in letting a police precinct burn to the ground? Where was the compassion from this governor who didn't say a word for days during the George Floyd riots?

And people's businesses got trashed. Where was that? I mean, I could go on and on. He likes to say that he's compassionate and civil and decent. I'm sorry. I don't see it. Well, yeah. Well, a while, so pointed judge was dismissing those charges against Emily Phillips. Now they said they didn't have enough to make the charges stick. Emily Phillips stepped out onto a sidewalk in front of city's church and had gotten multiple notices for being too loud. All of the protesters had. But I think a lot of people would look at the scene outside of city's church. A lot of minisotins would look at that and say there's nothing decent about that.

There's nothing decent about it. Fending it has to stop and Michelle, I'm curious why I mean, Fox News had this big report today from Oscar no money.

$250,000 a quarter of million dollars was spent by some leftist groups to put up that massive no kings protest last week that we just played a clip of tomorrow's speaking at why is minisotin of all places.

“I mean, people around the country are scratching their heads about this. I'm sure people in rural minisotin are scratching their heads about this. Oh, they are. Why has minisotin become a hotbed of chaos?”

You know, I think that that we are minisotin nice and sometimes compassionate or at our own expense and I think a lot of minisotins are waking up to this. I said, the professor calls it suicidal empathy, meaning you're such an empath that you would let anyone do anything and it might even end up harming you, but you've got to be, you know, an empath. So, look, I see it all around greater minisotin. People are angry. They don't feel represented. They don't feel like what you saw there at this no kings rally represented them.

You can try out Bruce Springsteen. You can try out the celebs. You can try out all that money. And by the way, where it came from is a whole another story. This is not organic. This is a produced, financed, a bit of activism that is really just not representative of the state of minisotin. So November is going to be fascinating.

“I genuinely believe people want to see change. That's why Tim walls isn't running anymore. The leering center was kind of his undoing, right?”

That whole bit of video that was put out on the internet showing how much for all there was and how easily it was, it was spotted. And then suddenly Tim walls is like, you know, maybe I can't run. I'll step down. Yeah, that was remarkable. And then it's totally. So on that point, senators confirm cabinet secretaries. Now looking back at operation metro surge. Obviously, Kristina was on your day at Jescretary and it's Mark Wayne Mullin. How do you look back at DHS's oversight of operation metro surge? Because there are even some people on the right that were uncomfortable with what transpired in the state. How are you looking back at it now?

Well, you know, I jumped into this Senate race right when all hell was breaking loose. It was right then. And you know, you find yourself in the middle of it right jumping into a Senate race. And these are the questions you're asked. And you've got to respond. And I responded genuinely. And this is what I've said then. And I'll say it now. Two people did not have to die. We're nay good and Alex pretty. And honestly, anyone who suffered a death of a friend or a family member knows how heartbreaking this is for those families.

It's it's it's gutting. It's it's awful. And it didn't have to happen.

We're also out there agitating people at the same time they were preventing law enforcement, local law enforcement, the police department from assisting in any way shape or form.

“The law enforcement could have been out there putting up barricade saying, you know, this is an ice operation.”

We're not helping with the actual operation, but we need to keep people back. We need to keep people safe. We need to keep the onlookers safe. The people who are being pursued need to keep them safe. And we need to keep the officers safe. I remember one of the conversations I had with a police officer who said, you know, we risk life and limb to go put someone criminal a dangerous criminal behind bars.

And then they release them. And now you're asking federal officers to come in and do the same thing risk their life and limb.

To put these people back behind bars. Where is the sense in this? So we have these two opposing forces that really made for the perfect storm and it was it was not good. And anything that was wrong that needs to be adjudicated should be adjudicated.

“Another thing this Senate has voted on is tariffs. And I went back and looked, I think you did a whole interview episode of your show on tariffs with an expert somebody who'd studied it really closely.”

And Minnesota obviously has a lot of ag important relationships with Canada.

I mean, I'm from Wisconsin. I know how important for farmers being so close to Canada is and how that can change your business and the like.

Do you have a sense, you know, there have been some Republicans who've crossed over to vote with Democrats on the tariffs. Do you have a sense of what would be best for Minnesota? Do you trust the president's continued stewardship of the trade relationships? What do you think about on that issue right now? Well, certainly the president and his work in trade has brought in trillions of dollars to the United States and we are still rebounding from the four years of just sky high inflation from the Biden administration.

I don't want to overlook that because it can't be overlooked because it's in the paperwork. It's fact, right? This is what we've had to come back from. I've talked to multiple farmers who really just want government to stay out of their way and let them do what they need to do at the same time. You know, look, we're talking corn, we're talking soybeans, we're talking sugar beet and these things some of people have benefited from some subsidies in the farm bill. So I would need to see exactly what the proposals are.

I need to look at the legislation very carefully before I decided how to go about doing this, but some of the farmers are very patient and they've said, look, this was sort of baked in. So I'd come and knew this might be a factor. So we prepared other farmers maybe didn't. Well, these, no one works harder than farmers, no one. You know that too, having been from Wisconsin. They are around the clock year round. It's a constant game of catching up. So it's a very nuanced issue and one that I certainly would like all the facts in front of me before I deliver an answer on that.

You know, entirely fair, you mentioned the IOC earlier, and I wanted to get into that because speaking of why Minnesota finds itself in the crosshairs, not to just want to say to the next it's just unbelievable. It is the Department of Justice just announced a lawsuit against Minnesota's Department of Education over Title IX violations and this is a really strong lawsuit just looking at it. DOJ is suing the Minnesota Department of Education for quote requiring girls to compete against boys and athletic competitions that are designated exclusively for girls and allowing boys to invade intimate spaces designed exclusively for girls such as multi person locker rooms and bathrooms.

The way that I wanted to, because you've been so outspoken on this, Michelle, and I'm curious now that you've been campaigning. Gas prices are high. There is some discomfort over the tariffs. There's housing shortages that younger people are dealing with student debt, all of that.

“Where does this factor in? It's such a common sense issue, but when pocketbook issues come into it, those people weigh those. So where are you hearing?”

They do, but at the same time whenever I bring that topic up, and I say, unapologetically, there should be no boys and girls sports. The place erupts because everyone's seen it, no girl dad wants this, no dad wants to see this for his kids. It is a common sense issue. So this falls under that bucket of things like voter ID and you know, men and women's sports and some of the simpler things that are really 80/20 and I would say closer to 90/10 issues. And this is a big one. And you know, I got to mention Megan Rapino, the former soccer player who my covered in the London Olympic Games back in 2012.

You're going to love it. You've probably already seen it, but this is S4. Megan Rapino on a podcast just a couple of days ago. So let's take a look.

“A really horrible rule that came out from the International Olympic Committee. They've announced a new policy that they're calling.”

You can't even believe they're calling at this, because it has nothing to do with protecting women. The protection of the female bracketed women's category. We already know that biology as much as we want it to be just nice and clean and tight.

And perfectly in one category or another, it's not. We know that. So now what we're doing is subjecting everybody all women and all who are identifying as well.

Exactly what they really invasive testing that leads to me just says, like, oh, so we're just trying to whittle it down to a certain type of woman. Is that what we're doing? Like, that's really the whole game here.

“I mean, they're the ones who've subjected all women to this. Michelle, I could go off, but you mentioned that you cover her. So you're probably not surprised by any.”

You know, it's gotten very disappointing though, because in 2012 at the Olympic Games in London, she was, it seemed a little more pro woman than she is now. Look, it's xx and xy are not the same. This is not an invasive test. And by the way, you know what else they subject to Olympic athletes to drug tests of various kinds, you know, you have to pee in a cup or whatever, because they don't want people having advantages from performance enhancing drugs. This is like a cheap swab that that's not invasive. Do you know how many nasal up the nose, COVID tests I had to take just a cover the NFL? I didn't even play in the NFL. I was covering it. I had to three tests every week. This thing going up and talk about invasive. This is not.

But for her to say, you know, we want science to boil down to this very nice tight clean pack. Actually, it is very, very simple. And don't let perfect be the enemy of the good Megan. We have seen Miss Rapino, many instances where women have been robbed of titles, whether it be swimming or golf or boxing.

“And in the name of this inclusion, if you are a male and you test positive for being a male, then you should compete against males. And if you can't get as far in that division as you like tough nougies, neither can a lot of people.”

That's the way the world works. Let the best of the women compete and let the best of the men compete. One quick example on I'll finish with this when I covered world championships swimming before the Olympics. There was this mixed medley relay where you got two men and two women to swim the various strokes. And it was very strategically organized by the teams because they thought, well, our best backstroke is a woman, but she would have to compete with their male backstrokeers. That might, that leg might not help us. So let's use her instead of it was all very strategic. Why? Because their different skill sets and different skill levels period the end it is simple Megan or Pino, it is.

You know, there's just occurred to me. I hadn't planned to ask about this, but your experience speaks to what so many people on the right got frustrated with over the last 10 years, which was specifically that corporations, which conservatives had looked very warmly upon these great American corporations.

Turning to the insanity, for example, boys and women sports and saying that you're big at if you don't support it, that you're a bad, like getting going full repeano.

Yeah. And Minnesota, Minneapolis in particular, the Twin Cities have a ton of corporate headquarters. That, I imagine as a US senator, your experience kind of prepares you to push back on this cultural pressure from corporations. I'm sure you're prepared for that. I'm ready to go. And, you know, it's interesting because we have had some corporations leave us and go to greener pastures where it's a little bit more friendly to businesses. Minnesota has a pretty unfriendly business environment. And that's part of this problem. We're losing some of the best minds, the best businesses, the best philanthropy out of Minnesota because of some of this stuff, whether it be the high taxes or, you know, just the environment in which to work.

So, and, and you see a lot less expansion. We've got companies that are headquartered in Minnesota, and they're not expanding within their own state. They're saying it's just not friendly here. So, we're going to go to South Dakota. We're going to take our expansion of Wisconsin or Iowa. So, this is something that I think businesses have already felt some of the push back, Emily. I think that they feel like, you know, the, the, the, the, the wokeness has come back to hurt them.

It's, it's, it's particularly when it comes to distinguishing between men and women. And that is not phobic of anyone. I don't care how you want to live your life. But when you, when you then impose that in a category like women sports, you got a whole, another argument coming.

And finally, last question, and this is when that you're going to get a lot you've already gotten a lot, which is abortion.

“I think you and I probably would have a respectful good faith disagreement on there, but I was curious to ask, which is totally fine.”

By the way, the, the president disagrees with probably many of his own voters and many conservative aligned independence that he brought into the mega coalition. But just a question about when you, how you think about the where life begins when life begins, Michelle.

Well, first of all, as a senator, this is no longer in the federal government's purview. This is a state's issue.

And sadly, sadly, Minnesota's laws have become somewhat barbaric.

“I am not a, you know, abortion on demand fan. I am not a person that thinks that you should abort a child after a certain point when that child is feasible outside of the womb.”

And we also, as much as Tim walls tried to deny it in his debate with JD Vance, they have changed and massaged the law so that if there is a botched abortion and you've got a surviving infant, it used to be you had to care for that infant.

That's not spelled out in the law anymore. I can't even believe that we've gotten to this point in Minnesota. So I'm certainly not aligned with that radical approach to the issue.

I think I aligned with Trump on this issue in that I don't like abortion, but I also believe in a woman's right to choose. I think it's between her and her morality and her doctor and as a woman who went through horrible infertility issues and lost a number of babies along the way. So I have that side of it and I also adopted a baby girl from Bogotá, Colombia when she was three months old. We fortunately my husband and I were blessed miraculously with a son and then we adopted our baby girl and I wish I could, I thank God every day that her mom had her and gave her life so that we could raise her as our daughter.

“It's one of the most amazing gifts I've ever seen. It's the most amazing gift, both my kids are. And so I see life kind of ahead for my kids and that's what really drives me into this political scene is I see what life could be like for them.”

And it's not where it used to be Emily. It's not this Minnesota is not the Minnesota that people remember and for my kids. I want to try to pull it back from the from the brink and bring some sensibility to this to this place bring some common sense back bring some. Tim Walls likes to say he's about decency I beg to differ. I think a decent culture looks a lot different from the one that he's propagated here in Minnesota. So yeah. I am against taxpayer funded abortion and I will happily vote for conservative judges, but again the issue is no longer under under the Senate's preview.

Right right right that was yeah that that has it's interesting because the amount of abortions has has gone up but sending it back to states has been a big big step in the right direction. So Michelle to FOIA US Senate candidate in Minnesota. What a pleasure to talk to you likewise always great to see you. Thank you so much for the time. Oh absolutely Michelle have a great evening you too. That was fantastic so lucky to have Michelle on the show this evening. We're going to take a quick break and be right back with Tom Bevan of real clear politics see you in a bit.

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Right everyone we're back with more after party and back with more Tom Bevin why not he's of course the co founder and president of real clear politics and the co host of real clear politics on the making Kelly channel over on serious xm 1111 Tom what's up. Hey hey how are we doing good did you know that you're one of the most popular guests on after party is that right I noticed shelter foil wasn't drinking so I'm going to raise one to the. I did you know I give a senate candidate some grace you were trying to be respectful I understand Tom when you run for some which awful.

You have my endorsement then I'll lay off I will need to leave to another state which work actually considering but we still have a bunch kids in school and. We've lived in Illinois for forever. And you know we live in a very liberal neighborhood evidence to Illinois it's Jan Chekowski's retiring Daniel Biss is going to be our new congressperson. It's you know and the taxes are high the weather's not good but we really like our little neck of the woods and we've got you know once you put down roots someplace we've lived there for 22 24 years and so.

It's hard but our last our youngest is going to be a he's a freshman in high school right now so. We've been talking about you know when he's out of school when he's in college. Where we might relocate to but for the time being and and that might induce me to run for senate somewhere and life we moved to. But I'm not running for senate in the state of Illinois because you know it's just not going to happen. I know announcements yet. No no no I'm going to I'm going to listen I'm going to be a very purposeful carpet bagger.

Just kidding. I'm going to be Florida. I don't know that you know it takes a really odd. I don't say odd but a certain kind of personality and you just have Michelle to go on it. She's actually one of the most normal people we interviewed her right after her announcement and I was she's like.

“Super normie which I really appreciated it and I thought why do you want to do this? Why do you want to subject yourself to it?”

That was my first question for her. Yeah and you know she's and I love that people that normies are still engaged and like going to throw their hat and ring and do all this. But when you look at some of the folks who who run and win and it's not a very you know I've covered politics now for 25 years since. It's not super glamorous I mean sure if you win and you get in the Senate then things great but like if you're running for Senate. You know and you got to drive around the state go to these pancake breakfast at 7 a.m. and shake hands it's kind of and then.

And then in between stops you're on the phone begging for money and it's really it's kind of soul sucking and bleak the way our system is is kind of set up so.

“Yeah I don't know that I'm cut out for that honestly. Well we'll see. We'll see.”

Never. Tom one thing I couldn't see you doing is giving a press conference like president Trump delivered this afternoon from the White House.

Where he said let's actually just roll this clip this was probably the big headline from the press conference it was a press conference of many headlines per usual he was in the White House briefing room. You notice when he's in there he changes the lighting a little bit it does look good which is befitting because he understands television and cameras lighting and the like. This is s7 we are up on a deadline that Donald Trump set for Iran he said he's going to bomb them back into the stone ages that we're going to find out tomorrow Iran is obviously even more on edge knowing that Donald Trump is threatening potentially civilian infrastructure will get into that in just a moment but here's what he said at the presser.

Your messaging on the war has moved from the war is coming to an end to war going to be bombing Iran to the stone ages and we've heard a range of those sort of messages.

So are you so which is it are you winding this down are you I can't tell you I don't know I can't it depends what they do this is a critical period.

They're going to have no bridges they're going to have no power plants. Stone ages yeah.

“Tom he had an exchange with the New York Times that was really brutal not by Trumpian standards but by normal president reporter standards actually on this exact question of bombing infrastructure so let's go ahead and see this mash up of.”

Those exchanges it was near times in CNN this is S6. Deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure by way of the jubilee election the conventions and interview it. I'm with the New York Times. It's all in for New York Times. Are you failing or you because circulation way down at the New York Times.

Are you concerned that you're threat to bomb power plants and bridges I'm out.

No no I hope I don't have to do it but if you think I'm going to allow them and powerful enrich.

To have a nuclear weapon you can tell your friends at the New York Times not get happen. You know long ahead of ability to New York Times because the New York Times said oh Trump won when the election and I won in a landslide I'll see you in. Are you willing to make a deal that does not include reopening the straight of four moves or is that now a top priority. I would say it's a very big priority but to close the straight all you need is one terrorist. That somehow has a truck loaded with because you can carry them in trucks large trucks.

A water mine drop them in the water.

And now you tell people that own ships are cost a billion dollars to don't worry about the mine.

Tom normally I am I find myself like on Trump side when he's yelling at reporters.

“I think it's very differently in times of war but I can't tell if I'm just being somebody who lives and works in DC and has journalists brain.”

Maybe I mean it's it's his favorite. He's still yeah. He still loves to mix it up with reporters and call him fake news and that's part of his stick and he's gotten a lot of mileage out of that. I do think the you're going to commit war crimes attack angle whatever is is a bit preposterous. I don't you know I saw I think it was Chris Van Hollner one of the centers like this illegal war of choice in Donald Trump's going to commit war crimes.

That feels to me just over the top I mean. Trump is is executing this war and and he's trying to make force these guys to submit. And and so he is threatening them and I do think he will follow through on. Some of that but but bombing some countries infrastructure is not. That's not a war crime I mean he's not targeting civilians he's not doing you know he is trying to.

We were talking about Carl Canon that we're talking about. That you know. World war two and what we did to force the Japanese to submit you know I mean we dropped a nuclear bomb. We're obviously not going to go that far but I do think Trump is serious about this and it does put.

“I think the more interesting question was the first one which was.”

So are we winding down or are we revving up and you know what are we doing here exactly and you know his response is I think from his point of view. Exactly approach it well depends on them if they have a decision make and based on how they decide is is how we're going to you know react. But I just think this this entire thing whether you agree with the action the military action or not it's pretty clear that this is a. This is becoming more the longer this goes on the more this is becoming a. I don't say an albatross but it is certainly a headwind that Republicans are now you know fighting against.

I think we're also improving this down to forty point nine percent on a real clear politics average that is the lowest it's been in his second term.

On Iran it's thirty nine on the economy it's thirty seven and on inflation it's thirty three. And that's an average of the polls that includes you know some of the more pro Trump polls like rasmussen that. Have him up closer to fifty and some of the you know other polls. And it's been going you know it's been it's been going down it's been he's been losing ground on this.

So.

“You know he needs to get this he needs to force a resolution here which is what he's trying to do.”

But if the Iranians do not cooperate you know and you know there there there's another side to this.

And this thing could go on for another few weeks months. And we're seven months away from the election almost to the day and right now you know. It's that that's going to make it very very difficult if he does not come up with some sort of.

Resolution that is that is favorable to.

The administration right and if we hadn't recovered our crew member we'd lost more men women and recovery efforts that can set the timetable back even longer and it can it can escalate so there.

“Every day could produce more potential trip wires but what you were talking about kind of reminds me of like I think why he's out there.”

Because he's realized his poll numbers are trending in the wrong direction and so now he's trying to get out in front of the cameras pick fights with reporters and the media then keeps. Taking they just give him so much to work with and it's a cycle that we've been stuck in since 2015. I want to put this Vin Gupta doctor is an MS and an MS now. Medical analyst who is now saying the president is quote exhibiting all the signs of dementia. Says erratic can't finish sentences often confused a logical train of thought word finding difficulties developing a worsening gradually over the time the president is exhibiting all the signs of dementia.

Now Tom this version of Donald Trump yes he sent out a particularly bananas tweet over the weekend which today he explained by saying he said it so that people would pay attention to it again. People can probably tell him not a particular fan of that tweet or that true social but he obviously was acting what he thought was rationality. It wasn't as though this is like dementia riddle Joe Biden out there and this has been the cycle it's the same thing every single time he gets them every single time because they can't help themselves and I feel like that's exactly what we're watching play out now.

Yeah there was a there was a whole spate during his first term there was a woman bandie Lee I think her name was who wrote a book about this she was like psychoanaly all these folks were putting Trump on the couch metaphorically and you know psychoanalyzing him and talking about all these you know things that we're driving him and saying you had you know narcissistic personality disorder and all these things right. So here we go again and it's it's particularly rich given the fact that we just live through the four years of Joe Biden where the media and the Democrats were.

You know out there every day gaslighting the public saying you know Joe Biden is so sharp he does more before 90 am than all of you people do an entire day I can't even keep up with them he's you know it's it was preposterous right we will Trump actually does. All accounts and by his social media habits I mean the guy hardly sleeps it seems like he's he's tweeting and posting and working in all hours.

“And you well not quite I mean and I know but honestly I'm it's it is astonishing when you think about it I mean my dad is 81. He turns 82 this year and you know and I love my dad and he's actually great shape physically and mentally.”

But you know by like one o'clock is like I gotta take a nap. It's nap time it's not eating enough McDonald's is not eating enough. I know and I'm like how the hell does Trump do this it is a little crazy but. But yeah you're right the Democrats fall for it the media fall for it and they somehow think it's it's like widely coyote they think they're going to get the road runner they never do and they end up looking and sort of playing the fool and. Why I fully expect if they win the house they will move to impeach him again and we'll go you know it's like it's like you know you watch like jaws and then they make a sequel and it's not nearly as good and then they make a third one and they make a you know it's like.

And it's not like it's not like it's not like it's not like it's not like it's not really we still doing this guys but they can't help themselves they seriously he drives them insane and you know.

Basically he is he is one of one and the way that he operates is unlike any present we've ever seen the language he uses the you know all of it. But that doesn't mean he's.

I mean or has dementia or we need his 25th amendment so I think the Democrats have just that yeah they've just fallen into the trap once again well this is a perfect transition to.

Now on the other hand one average the RCP average where Democrats aren't doing so hot is an overall if you look at Republicans and Democrats the Republican party even with a president who's not historically very popular. The Republican party is still more popular than the Democratic party. Tom is at the favorability average or my thing you've got certainly. Yeah that's the question polster's ask if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic party Republican party they ask it about politics you know Donald Trump, J.D. Vance Chuck Schumer, King Jeffries and so we aggregate all that data now they don't ask that question.

As often as they ask job approval so it's it's not as robust a data set as as the job approval rating average is but nevertheless I mean the data is pretty clear.

“And this is the one silver lining for Republicans but honestly and this is kind of the paradox right which is so Democrats are when you look at those numbers are are exceedingly unpopular I mean in many ways their brand is as low as it's ever been.”

However when they ask that generic ballot question if the election were held today who you can vote for Democratic Republicans they leave by like six points right in our average so even though voters have a very low opinion of the Democratic party writ large when it comes time to pull the lever.

They're saying they'd still prefer Democrats to Republicans and that's I think and we've seen that by the way in a lot of these special elections and.

I think that's a function of you know it's it's a sort of throw all the bumps out we don't like anybody but guess what the bumps were in charge right now are the Republicans and they're that so they're the ones if you have if you are disgruntled about.

“The status whether it's financial or cultural or whatever it is there's only one party that you can really punish because they're the one party that controlled the house Senate and the presidency so.”

That is ultimately going to be.

What voters decide on in November and so even though democratic party again historically low favorable ratings they're still most likely going to take the house almost certainly and are having increasing chance of potentially taking the Senate. Yeah let's talk about the Senate and just one moment excited some questions for you on that if you're watching CNN and Harry Anton comes on your screen with this news for Democrats that should. Send a child down the spine of folks over at the DSSC they already know this they've been dealing with these numbers for a long time but here's what it looked like when Harry Anton took to the air waves of CNN and delivered the news for Democrats with what we have here were in month four so.

We got we have here like eight months no like last seven months yeah seven months until election day f eight. This lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president because take a look here I'm taking a look at the average of all the posts. Jim Demgenera Congress congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with the Republican president on average or leads actually slightly less it's five points that's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points so yeah Democrats are ahead.

But they're only ahead by five with the president who's not approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30 depending on what post you look at you'd make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they're just only sort of slightly ahead.

“I think five points is enough to take back the house but in the Senate five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map why do I say that because let's just take a look.”

We would win the Senate with this map let's say Republicans only hold on to the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points that wouldn't in fact give them the Senate 51 to 49 why because what you would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina they would flip main but Republicans would hold on to Ohio they'd hold on to Texas and they'd hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all those states by greater than 10 points. Okay, that's really interesting and Tommy's been doing this through all of those cycles.

I want to get your take on it because I look at Ohio and think you know out seven months from now if and this is a big if. The Iran war has gas prices where they are maybe you have more American casualties or maybe even just after another few months whatever it is. I look at Ohio I look at North Carolina I even look at Nebraska Susan Collins is very resilient very very resilient it's early so you can't take the polls too seriously if that a heaping grain of salt in the the Democratic primary as it goes on but.

The sort of benchmark for presidential job approval is 50% if you were under 50% bad news if you're over 50% good news Donald Trump broke that model okay his first term when he first took office in January of 2017 his approval rating was 44.3% his disapproval rating was 44.2% in our average on January 27 and it went down from there he never had over 50% job approval rating.

“His entire first term in office and yet. The 2020 election was pretty close in 2018 yes Democrats won 41 seats in the house but Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate.”

So you know it was a bit of a mixed bag there so you know part of this is Donald Trump and he's got he's got a floor.

That has you know when he's at 45% job approval rating for Donald Trump is is not terrible in fact it's probably pretty good it's probably closer to them what we historically think of as as a 50% mark. The other piece of that is that on the house side with the gerrymandering that's gone on there just aren't that many seats at play I think or you would have these huge swings even if it's a relatively big Democratic night it might only result in then picking up 15 or 20 they're not going to pick up 60 seats like Republicans did in the 2014 midterms when when Obama was.

“It was a twenty yeah 2010 so there's some structural things but I think Harry overall is right the other thing too is we had we had.”

On our show today Henry Olson from the ethic public policy center he writes common for the Washington Post he's a big numbers guys like Sean trendy type and we were talking he wrote a interesting piece on the fact that that on the Hispanic vote and how that was a huge driver of Trump's success in 2024 but has really fallen back we've seen now in the polling and also in the special elections and the elections in November. that Hispanics have a reverted back to sort of their pre 2024 you know we're Trump only lost him by five now he's losing by twenty five and that will have impacts across the political landscape particularly in places like Texas you know places like Georgia North Carolina to certain degree.

And in some of these in some of these house races as well so. You know I think Democrats while they are ahead in the generic ballot.

“They probably should be further ahead in some of that is based on what we just talked about their favorable ratings not that great.”

There's some structural issues there that are preventing them probably from being as high as they have been in the past and Republicans can take a little bit of solace from that but I still think. But I think it's going up to be pretty rough go for Republicans that I think at this point if the election were held today they'd be. They would keep the Senate but it would be it'd be a 51 49 deal I mean they'd lose a couple of seats and barely hang on to a majority so and if this war continues in gas prices stay high economic you know people are still feeling squeezed.

And if the bottom falls out they will lose in Ohio they will lose in Alaska Susan Collins may finally go down in Maine.

Texas is probably still a bit of a stretch but I don't know that they even need Texas to get to if they win those other other seats. Right yeah good point although once we get past primary season Democrats are going to have to start answering a whole lot more questions about what their immigration policy is what their transport policy is and as Roy to chair would point out they don't have great answers that are well that are good enough to satisfy a lot of people you disagree Tom. I disagree gas prices.

Well no just trump hatred because this is a base election and Democrats are united in turning out by the way. Particularly at the Senate level right these are six year terms like two thirds of their term are is going to occur after trump is gone and yet they're also running on on fighting trump on fighting trump where you know so they're getting away with just being unified against trump. Without having to espouse policy positions or talk about something just say trump's bad and and that has been enough thus far in a lot of these special elections.

And meanwhile the Republican party you know you look at some of the the enthusiasm numbers they're down ten twelve fifteen points in terms of their enthusiasm for turning out to vote.

“And the party is the party is split over the Iran war. I don't most Republicans tell posters they support it but certainly you can't you can't discount the fact that.”

There there's a portion of the mega base that includes you know voices like Megan and others that you know they're just not happy about it and that's going to lead to apathy or frustration and people will stay home and you combine those two things totally unity on the democratic side opposing trump and some some you know apathy and and. Skisms in the Republican base and that's a that's a perfect storm of disaster for Republicans.

Yeah, it's going to ask my last question to you about that exactly Tom there's some polling and you're well aware of this you just referenced it but.

Well it shows some people this is the news we got a call we can throw the tertiary up on the screen well if you're maga yourself identify as maga you are generally hanging in there with Donald Trump it's much more split around among the average Republican voter. Some things I'm hearing anecdotally and I'm curious if we have any evidence of this in the polls yet even though it's just been about a month is there's a patience threshold among Republican voters who do trust trump they like his foreign policy instincts.

So I thought maybe this was a two week bombing run two week air campaign and there's probably a point at which they're patients where spin I don't know if you've been hearing that anecdotally I've heard that anecdotally that people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt they loved that he said no new wars but they trust because he. In a way that they like to execute and they generally like to first term foreign policy they're willing to give them a little leash on this I don't know if it's too early to see that show up in the polling go Tom.

“No we are seeing it in the polling and I think that's exactly right.”

The Democrats were opposed to this from the beginning because it's Donald Trump and they're always going to be opposed you know no matter what independence were.

And that has widened but certainly Trump has lost some altitude you know a little bit with Republicans and if you go look at our real politics average again it's five or six weeks worth the data starting you know February 28 when the bombing started to now. And it's a pretty steady slow you know decline in the approval rating and increase in the disapproval rating and and that's driven by independence but also by by Republicans look Trump when this first started. I said this would be four to six weeks and I think for the you know hardcore maga they're with him rider die you know whatever but for the other folks who are Republicans and and like Trump and voted for Trump but are skeptical of of this.

“And we're going to hang with him for four to six weeks if it goes beyond that I think and we're already seeing some slippage.”

If this goes eight weeks 10 weeks 12 weeks are beyond I think you will start to see that number erode significantly and and that'll affect his overall job approval rating probably push him under 40 for the first time. December of 2017 he was at 37.4% so that is his all time low and that was right before they passed his tax cut. And then he rebounded back into the 40 so. You know he's he's getting down near there now but I think if this goes on you will see that number go into the 30s and maybe go reach a new low which would be obviously not good news for Republicans.

Fascinating what Tom Bevin is the co-founder and president of real clear politics is a co-host of a real clear politics on serious like them channel 1111 the making Kelly channel Tom absolute pleasure to have you back thank you for doing it so good to be with you thanks Emily. Cheers cheers. Well since Tom just went out on a boozy note it's again a perfect transition because if you were looking to make small shifts that make a huge difference and maybe your Tom Bevin you should have popped Z biotics before you started drinking it does make a big difference it kind of sounds counter intuitive right but.

That means planning ahead and if you do think and you plan ahead before you lose your capacity to plan for anything you can actually just live in the moment you can chill. You can have a few drinks it really does help and if you take Z biotics pre alcohol it's literally called pre alcohol so you can't forget.

So it's created by PhD scientists to tackle those rough mornings alcohol creates a toxic by product in the gut and that buildup causes rough days but pre alcohol actually produces an enzyme to break it down hubs or body break it down.

“You can make it your first drink you can drink responsibly and then you can even feel your best tomorrow the next day how nice is that you can have your cake and eat it to.”

And we claim your mornings go ahead reclaim them they're there for the taking now I'm not going to lie I was actually put on the fence as many of you may be about pre alcohol.

It's this extra step doesn't actually work but I have have taken it several times and it does it does definitely help you have someone with dinner give it a shot you're not going to wake up quite as groggy let's put it that way you don't need to describe it because you all know that's like so. Let's be real usually a Friday night out means a Saturday morning spent canceling a workout class but since I started I started incorporating pre alcohol my glass of wine it does not disrupt my morning flow.

“So remember to head to zbiotics dot com slash after party and use the code after party at checkout for 15% off. All right, we're going to close out the show tonight with a really sad but instructive case study and how the media so often.”

Batches stories about faith and this one is related to savanna got three now savanna got three put out a almost haunting Easter message and Easter video message and what we're going to do is play the video we're going to play. A montage from the video essentially people had different opinions on this video savanna got three returned tearfully to work on the today show this morning about three months after her mother Nancy got three went missing.

“And it's been a long time in Arizona so savanna got three came back and was holding on the fort at the today show this morning she tear it up understandable the night before she returned she put out this Easter message that was controversial.”

People thought it was a little bit of an odd choice but I think a lot of the people who felt that way and we're weighing in on it got their cues as is understandable from some of the media coverage before they watch the video or maybe they didn't even even watch the full video to be honest so let's take a look at the video and I'll tell you a little bit about how the media covered it.

We celebrate today the promise of a new life that never ends in death but standing here today I have to tell you there are moments in which that promise seems irretrievably far away.

In my own season of trial I have wondered I have questioned whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel this grievous and uniquely cruel injury of not knowing. On the cross he cried out my god my god why have you forsaken me. That is the anguished cry of someone who does not know the answers. In the grave dis his agony seemed indefinite to him that torment of uncertainty the way indefinite pain can feel eternal.

Perhaps he did know this feeling after all. Perhaps this is too dark a message to share on Easter morning. But I have long believed that we miss out on fully celebrating resurrection.

If we do not acknowledge the feelings of loss, pain and yes death it is the darkness that makes this morning's light so magnificent so blindingly beautiful. It is all the brighter because it is so desperately needed. If we believe in Jesus as we believe our mother did, that is something I should have mentioned before queuing up the clip. If you have been following the Nancy Guthrie story, we have heard over and over again about Nancy Guthrie's faith. Savannah got through the light she was talking about the light of Easter that does make the darkness more bearable is that she hopefully will see her mother again.

This is F-12. They said they posted an article and in posting their coverage of this on X. I just want you to compare what they said with what you just watched in full. So Variety writes Savannah Guthrie says she's quote question whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel on quote in an emotional Easter Sunday message.

When life itself seems far harder than death, these moments of deep disappointment with God, the feeling of utter abandonment for most of us, there will come a time in our life when these feelings hold sway.

“Variety cuts it off there knowing damn well that they just framed what happened for people on X who were just going to see that.”

Their headline, which should sum up. That's what headlines do should should sum up the meat of the story. Their headline leaves out the entire second part of the video where Savannah Guthrie talks about the light making the darkness bearable and just projects to everyone that after this enormous trauma.

Savannah Guthrie is basically questioning her faith and has lost her faith. It's incredibly misleading because of anything.

The video was a vigorous embrace of her faith and this was just a classic case study in the media willfully misleading. Their readers doing complete disservice to their readers whether you are a militant atheist or not views on that post you came away with a completely different understanding of what Savannah Guthrie said. And now millions of people around the country are following this case really closely, and the idea that it would nudge someone to question their faith and lose their faith. So, Anna Guthrie was openly talking about it making her question her faith and making her question whether God himself knew this particular pain as she mentioned.

“And I think everybody knows that's fully, fully understandable. The message that variety left with people left people with was that faith was not enough.”

That Savannah Guthrie had decided there's, there's, they're, they're implying to their audience that this very high profile figure who suffered a very high profile personal intimate trauma and still is.

Has decided the gospels are not enough on Easter. So, on Easter variety takes that message and posts basically just the entire first half of the message.

That is the predicate for the second half of the message, right? It's not like this one half was totally disconnected from the other half. She was building to a conclusion and they just took it away.

“They stopped the story right in the middle. Now, I said it was willful. It's hard to believe it wasn't, but actually to steal man myself.”

There are just a lot of journalists who maybe thought the, I could see them believing the takeaway from that is Savannah Guthrie questioning. Quote whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound and not realizing that what she went on to say. Undermind that because maybe they didn't think hard about it or maybe they fully don't understand what Easter means to Christians. Hard to believe it's not willful because if you spend a minute thinking about it before you hit publish to people around the world.

It's impossible to imagine you wouldn't come to the conclusion that the second half was contingent on the first half.

All of that is to say this is just a good case study that's relatively representative of how you often see journalists struggle with faith very famously. Dean Bikai of the New York Times who's the executive editor of the New York Times in 2016 when they completely missed the 2016 election. They were having a struggle session in the newsroom after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton and he very famously in the aftermath, whether it was a brief period of introspection said we don't get religion. And this was supposed to be the moment where the media paused got better improved rebuilt trust with readers and listeners and viewers.

But I never really stuck. They're probably a couple of people who are doing better but industry-wide there's a reason it's not just religion it's issues in general that trust and media continues to plummet record low tied for a record low when Gallup came out with its numbers last October. All these years afterwards they still don't get religion clearly and consistently. So again, I know it's a little example, but this was literally on Easter with one of the most high profile people in media, one of the most high profile crime stories of the decade so far and it was an egregious misrepresentation.

I'll leave it there for this evening. Excited to be back on Wednesday with all of you 9pm live. No problem if you catch up afterwards, either way just subscribe. Please do subscribe on the YouTube channel, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts that helps us do the show and stay independent. Thank you. Thank you. We'll be back like I said on Wednesday with more. See you then.