>> We're down lower than we've been in seven years and gasoline prices and oi...
not just the three states that I talk about with 1.99 a gallon.
“How would you like to have 1.99 a gallon?”
>> The U.S. and Israel have launched strikes and a major military operation targeting Iran. >> In good evening, we begin tonight with the escalating battle over one of the world's most vital shipping channels. >> Here are not everybody's plan to vote for Republicans and the midterms who support Trump.
Let's take a listen to one more woman who we spoke with, and you voted for him many times. >> Three times that was my bad, apparently I'm an idiot. >> You're listening to Civics 101. I'm Nick Capity, Jay. >> I'm you had a McCarthy.
>> And today we have a correction, maybe more like an update, four years ago I'm in an episode where I implied that the president has little to no effect on the price of gas. >> So I was wrong. >> Stick around. >> You're the best player in this school.
>> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school.
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>> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school. >> You're the best player in this school. >> And that is conflict in the Middle East. >> Good afternoon, everyone.
We are interrupting a game for just a moment here, because there is major breaking news at this hour. ABC News has just learned that Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Hamani, is believed to have been killed in the attack in Iran.
President Trump just moments ago, confirming the news in a social media post, killed in that attack led by US and Israeli.
“>> How much of the world's oil comes out of the Middle East?”
>> That is a tricky question. It's about 30%. North America is the number one region producing 31%. And I say it's tricky because oil from different places is different oil. It costs more or less to extract, to refine, et cetera.
>> And when did we start depending on oil production in the Middle East? >> That started in a big way in the 1950s. And by the 1970s, the world market was completely dependent on oil from the Middle East, which is why conflict in the Middle East has an immediate effect
on the price of crude, and therefore the price of gas. You know, when we talk about tensions in the Middle East, we're talking about a few scenarios that could unfold that could dramatically increase the price of oil. And I call these the nuclear scenarios.
>> The nuclear scenarios? >> Yeah. Doesn't mince words that Robert Rapeer. So here they are. >> One nuclear scenario is that Saudi Arabia,
the region's largest producer, gets dragged into a full-blown war, and their all-producing facilities are exporting facilities are damaged. That's a nuclear scenario. Nuclear scenario is two or three of the large producers in the area
get dragged into a conflict. But the other nuclear scenario is the one that has just happened. And that is Iran closes down the strait of our moves. >> Iran flexing its muscle, launching projectiles and planting mines.
“They're exerting control over this key route,”
targeting ships that have passed through the narrow waterway. Iran vouchs to strike any ship linked to the US, Israel, or their allies that passes through here. >> That's actually worse than the others,
because 20 million barrels a day,
and another 2 million barrel oil equivalent of liquid natural gas, pass through that strait every day on a normal circumstances. That's 20% of the world's oil supply. On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted a surprise attack on Iran.
Iran's health ministry reports that so far, about 1,500 Iranians' civilians have been killed, including 165 at a strike on a school, and 18,500 people have been wounded. Now, I do not have an accurate number of Iranian military killed in battle.
The United States and Israel says it's about 6,000 Iranian soldiers, and the United States has reported the loss of 13 US service members in the conflict so far. >> And what is the stated reason for this attack? >> If you had to explain in 10 seconds, why did we go to war now?
“>> It's a very question, and the truth is,”
we don't know the answer, right? They have given us multiple versions of that story all week. We are testing Donald Trump's truth-social posts, along with statements by Secretary of War, Pete Hegsef, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Mike Walsh.
In the first week of the war, I read nine different, sometimes conflicting explanations from preventing nuclear weapons, to inciting a regime change, to preempting Iran attacking us, to destroying Iran's missile capabilities to securing resources. As GOP Senator Lindsey Graham said,
when he went on Fox News, quote, "When this regime goes down, we're going to have a new mid-East. We're going to make a ton of money."
>> So Robert said that 20 million barrels of oil
go through the straight of Hormuz. And this isn't a large body of water, right?
It's relatively small.
>> It's not big, there's no way to sneak through it. It's 100 miles long, 20 miles wide. Iran can lay mines, they can fire on any tankers they see with ease. >> Is there no other route these ships can take? >> No.
So if you look at the straight of Hormuz to the north, I mean, it's a dead end. It goes up to Kuwait and it's able to pick up oil and natural gas from Qatar and different places, but there's no other way out.
There are Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that goes across. There's a pipeline that goes to the north, but those are all very limited.
I mean, 20 million barrels a day is a staggering amount of oil
to move. You know, no pipeline is moving that amount. So those ships, the cost of traffic. And if you look, there's a side out there, MarineTraffic.com.
If you go look, you can see there is absolutely no ship traffic going through the straight of Hormuz. And it's normally just constant. If you use that site and you pop over to the red sea, you can just see red lines of ships going all up and down
that, going up to the Suez Canal and going through. But going through the straight of Hormuz, there's absolutely nothing going on right now. And it's usually very, very busy traffic through there.
“People will talk about it being one of the most important”
choke points.
It is the most important choke point for energy in the world.
>> Did you go to marinetraffic.com? >> I did, and added yet another daily tab that I can't stop checking. But again, no way out, no way around, it is entirely in Iran's hands. >> No other country ever in history has had the ability
to control that much of the world's oil supply, forever. So Iran, with, you know, this is why this is why presidents have had been hesitant to attack Iran. >> I did criticize the president because of our undercutting of what was a stolen ally, the Shah of Iran.
>> We want better relations with Iran. I remember when we had good relations. We liked the Iranian people. >> Well, I could have been related if I had taken military action against Iran.
But it's shown that I was strong and resoluted and manly and so forth.
“But I think if I could have liked Iran off the map,”
we would have weapons that we had. But in the process, a lot of innocent people would have been killed. It probably including your hostages. >> Because, well, it is a nuclear option for them. And everybody is going to suffer, not just the United States.
Everybody in the world who uses fuel is going to suffer because we just took off line 20% of the world's supplies. And so now we are scrambling to fill those gaps. >> And it is not just oil, Hannah. As important as oil is, it's not the be all end all here.
Other ships carrying a lot of other stuff go through there as well.
And it's also critical supply route for fertilizer.
For trading in general, a lot of container ships go through there. And when you think about what's being disrupted, those ships are all scheduled. You know, they're supposed to be somewhere else now. You got a lot of ships that are trapped inside, you know, so the north and they can't get out.
They're stuck. So there's going to be a disruption of trade here that's going to be, I think, reminiscent of COVID. When we saw, you know, supplies get disrupted, supply chains get disrupted.
“I think we're going to see that right now.”
We're going to see, you know, some problems. I think we'll just scratch the surface of what we could see. I mean, it largely depends on Iran and how much they want to dig in here, but they could bring the globally economy to its knees. >> That is a grim picture.
Does Robert have any ideas in terms of what we can do? Or rather, what America can do? >> He's got a couple, and we're going to get to that right after a quick break. >> So food delivery services have been around for a while. And I've tried a lot of them, and I loved some and I hated others.
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Today, we are talking about the way a president can affect the price of gas. Namely, by attacking Iran. >> So we have a gap right now. 20% of the world's oil is stuck in the Persian Gulf. Not to mention myriad other container ships.
“What can the world do to make up for all of that missing oil?”
>> And the math says you could maybe best case short-term feel about half that gap.
You could maybe come up with 10 million barrels, and that's drainage strategic petroleum reserves from Europe and from G7 countries and from the United States.
So that only gives you a boost for a month or six weeks, and then you're back to, if the straightest to a close, then you're in some real pain. Then that supply goes off. There are some other options. Saudi has an underutilized crude oil line going west to the Red Sea, and they have proposed to push more crude in that direction.
Iran has let some ships go through that are going to China, so that helps a little bit. And the US has offered a waiver to Russia to allow them to sell oil to India, which ironically helps Russia continue to fight against Ukraine. It gives them cash that they need, so it's a win-win for Russia. When you talk about who wins out of this, I mean, Russia comes out of this as one of the biggest winners.
They undoubtedly would like to see this going on as long as possible, and see oil prices $150. I mean, that's just gold for Russia.
“>> What is the highest oil barrel prices have ever been?”
There was a spike in 2008 that led oil to be $147 a barrel, but that really was a spike. By the end of the year, it was back down to $40 a barrel. >> Has anyone suggested how high it could go as a result of this conflict? >> Lots of folks have speculated. Last week, a market analyst on NBC said, "I wouldn't be surprised if oil went to 200 bucks,
or even 250, because commodity prices go parabolic when there's a shortage of supply." >> So what can we do? >> In the short term, I don't know if there's anything we can do. Because this was a complete surprise, and nobody had planned for it. >> In the long term, if you said, you know, over the next five years,
we're going to be missing 20 million barrels of oil a day.
There are things that producers would do that go out and make investments and so forth. We don't really know how high oil prices could go. Because the question I ask people is, "How much would you pay for gasoline before you stop buying gasoline?" And most people go, "Well, I don't have a choice. I have to drive back and forth to work."
“So if you're paying $4 now, and gasoline is $10, would you stop driving?”
And people go, "Well, I couldn't afford that, but I also couldn't stop driving." But after a long time of $10 a gallon for gas, people are going to change. People will use public transit, they'll use carpools, eventually consumption will lessen. >> But, you know, until a lot of consumption falls off, if you run digs in their heels here, we're in for a very rough time.
And I would expect us to go into recession if oil prices go above $100 and stay there. Which right now, for my view, they should be above $100 given that Iran is looks like they're digging in. And, you know, there's just not enough supply right now. I mean, the world is vastly underproducing what the world is demanding right now, because it's just not moving through there.
>> It's, this is huge. Yes, I got up and I said, I think this is a huge, huge miscalculation. And, you know, we'll see how it goes. >> That leaves me thinking about the very last thing a president can do to affect gas prices. And look, I know the constitution says, "Congress declares war, not the president. We have not declared war since World War II, by the way.
But could this lead to a larger war?" >> Robert says that is definitely a possibility. >> We'll look back, I think this will be one for the history books. We'll look back and we'll go. This was a crisis that, you know, this is why people in the past have been very, very hesitant.
As much as people view Iran as a problem to be dealt with,
the reason people haven't dealt with them is what we're experiencing right now,
because they can shut down that straight of our moves. And why is that? Because it cuts deeply into their territory right there at a very narrow point. And they can surround it on three sides.
“And they can, I mean, you have to come very close to Iran getting a ship through there.”
And they can just stop traffic.
They can bombard things coming through there.
And that's going to put immense pressure, I think, on President Trump to put ground troops in there. I think if you ask me what's going to happen, I would predict that we're going to have to put ground troops in there. If Iran refuses to open it up, I think that's going to be what the pressure is. Not that I want to see that. I absolutely don't want to see it, but I think that's the pressure that's going to go to come.
[MUSIC]
“>> Well, that's the President and the price of gas, part two, not a replay of redux.”
Repacko was like, don't let people think it's the same episode as it sure isn't. Isn't the same anything.
This episode is made by me in a cap of D.C. with Hannah McCarthy as always.
Thank you, Hannah. Our producers Marina Henke and our executive producer, the aforementioned, Rebecca Lavoy. Music in this episode from Blue Dot Sessions, Epidemic Sound and the beautiful Chris Abrisky. Civics 101 is production of NHPR. New Hampshire Public Radio.
[MUSIC] >> Sometimes it feels like red and blue states are just as divergent as post-World War II East and West Germany.
“So what can the US learn from German political history in order to create a more perfect union?”
Find out on the new season of the future of our former democracy, the Signal Award winning podcast for a more equitable democracy at large media, hosted by me, Colin Cole and Heather Villanova. It's time to rethink democracy. So follow the future of our former democracy wherever you get your podcasts.
[MUSIC] >> Not all darkness is dangerous. Sometimes it's the doorway to becoming whole. On the brand new podcast, the shadow sessions hosted by me, Hibba Belfake, a psychologist and trauma expert, we should light on the hidden corners of the human experience.
Through raw, unfiltered conversations from the edge of healing, the shadow sessions invites you to do the deeper work that leads to real change. Follow the shadow sessions wherever you're listening now. [MUSIC] [BLANK_AUDIO]
