[MUSIC]
Economic data can come from anywhere, you know?
“AI is going to be buying TV ads now, which, great.”
And how's sitting as a job? From American public media, this is Marketplace. [MUSIC] In Los Angeles, I'm Kai, risdall it is Thursday. Today, this one is the 14th of May.
It is always stable along everybody.
One does not usually count the census bureau among the great statistical agencies of the United States government. But one should, because in addition to all the straight-up counting of people that it does, it also tracks a wide swath of what happens in this economy. For our purposes today, two items specifically.
First of all, retail sales, April is the month in question, up half a percent from March. Nice job, American consumers.
“Retail sales, by the way, measured in dollars, which makes it even more interesting, that”
that half percent bump holds true even when you strip out volatile and expensive items, like automobiles and gasoline. So there is that. Also on the rise, item two for us today, business inventories.
That is March data up 9/10 percent from February.
Those are headline numbers, of course those two and are decent on a first impression. But as Daniel Ackerman reports to start us off, a closer inspection reveals some consternation among both businesses and consumers. Yes, sales and inventories were up. But Jessica Ramirez of the Consumer Collective says there's something to keep in mind about
those numbers. Really, it's prices are high. High and rising fast, according to this week's inflation data.
“So the jump in the headline numbers is really about stuff getting more expensive and not”
about more stuff getting sold. Ramirez says in the face of all that, consumers are making hard choices. Opti now for some items while they're purchasing others and just being extremely edited in the way that they're shopping. She says that could mean a summer road trip instead of a long distance flight.
But even the basics are putting a dent in wallets and bank accounts.
59 percent of consumers say they are dipping into savings to cover their everyday expenses.
And that puts a big question mark around how much consumers will be able to keep spending in the months to come. And if retail sales do fall off, the stores don't want to be left holding the bag, so they're not exactly packing their storerooms, such as Jason Miller of Michigan State. Retailers have dialed in inventory's relative to where their demand is right now.
And Miller says that should hold true over the summer. We can expect caution from retailers over the coming months because they're just not sure where that consumer is going to be at. Some wholesalers on the other hand are building inventories, says Zach Rogers of Colorado State.
That's because inflation isn't going to disappear tomorrow. The cost of fuel keeps going up. And so right now, you're betting against, well, if I bring things in faster, maybe I can get them in before the cost of fuel goes up even more than it is already. Rogers says demand for some big ticket items might be soft.
If you look at car dealerships, if you look at furniture stores, world will have that announcement last week that nobody's buying refrigerators anymore. But there are plenty of retail events later this year that wholesalers want to be ready for. Back to school is still going to happen in a couple months.
Christmas is still going to happen in December. Rogers says wholesalers might want to buy all that stuff now, rather than risk paying more for it later. I'm Daniel Acreman for Marketplace. Wall Street today do with this what you will as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang makes the rounds
with President Trump in Beijing. The chip design companies shares have popped 20% to 0% in the past seven trading days. And while yes, measures of market capitalization can be formulaic and overemphasized, at $235.74 since a share at the close to day with 24 and a half or so billion shares outstanding. Nvidia is the, it's close to being worth six trillion dollars.
Elsewhere, an American market capitalism, a couple of record highs, the Dow is back above 50,000 what me worry will have the details when we do the numbers.
President Trump is in Beijing as I just said for talks that can be described ...
anticipated. Since we sadly can't be a fly on the wall for those discussions, we've done the next best thing. We've called Adam Poison, he's the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Adam, I'll come back to the program. Great to speak to you again.
Always good to be on with you, Kai.
Let me get right at it. Who needs this meeting to go well more? The president or president, president Trump needs it more by far and you can see that from the body language, the carrying with it in the whole bunch of US corporate CEOs, the sort of plaintiff tone.
I mean, in the end, the US will survive even if the meeting falls apart, obviously, but going into the meeting, Trump is the petitioner. Last time you when I spoke, there was all kinds of chatter from the White House and from Secretary Bessant's Treasury about decoupling this economic relationship, which, you know, would be challenging, given that there were the two biggest economies in the world.
But I did notice that last night, the president was out on his socials, talking about reopening China and getting things back on track in essence, and that sounds very 1990s engagement ish to me. Yeah, it does with his particular tone, and it is clearly an about face for the posturing that the US government under Trump, a bit under Biden, and again, under the last year
of Trump has done.
“I think it's a good move, if done properly with proper regard for national security and”
dependencies with some calling out China from his behaviors, but ultimately it was pretty
destructive. Let me make one more point by calling a Peterson chat bound as pointed out that if you look under the hood, the share of US imports from China has plummeted 25% to 7%. And there are two important parts of that. First is that huge shift in the amount of imports will get from China has made absolutely
no difference in a positive way to US manufacturing, to US, and if anything it's increased inflation. The second thing is that huge shift only leaves you with the stuff we can't substitute for, like where it's like pharmaceutical components. So you know, recoupling from here only makes sense.
You know, I will see your chat bound of whom I'm a huge fan and we're going to have a month when his book drops here in, I guess, a couple of weeks, months, whatever it is. But I will see you, Chad, and raise you foreign direct investment. The President talks about wanting to have Chinese factories on American soil, but foreign direct investment from China into the United States is way down as well.
So there are some hurdles here, right, to this reopening and reconnecting. Absolutely.
“And I think tried that the President is right to be emphasizing foreign direct investment.”
It was foolishness to say they didn't want that. I mean, if the Chinese are going to quote unquote steel technology, which to some degree, they're official still. It's done. It's done through computer means through surreptitious means through active, vibing
and spying US. Meanwhile, if we actually get foreign direct investment into the US, we actually get some technology transfer from them inherently. And we win over some of these potential spies, same thing with getting the Chinese students to the US.
It's a win win. But you're right on the facts. It's down like 90% since before. Co. So I'm sure you saw the headlines this morning that President Xi had said to President Trump
as they were discussing things, that Xi hopes that we can avoid the United States and trying to avoid the "thucidities" trap.
“Now, I confess I think you'll look that one up because it's been a long time since I've”
studied that stuff.
But it's basically the conflict arises, the conflict that arises when a rising power
like China takes on in every possible way, the established power of the United States. So you're not a political scientist, but you've been around the block a couple of times, frame that for me in the context of the global economy and the competition that exists now between these two powers. Well, what's key about the "thucidities" trap, which is, as you say,
probably it's about having a rising power get into a conflict with a established power, being part because the established power is worried that if they let the rising power get into the rise, they'll be right. And there is that sense in some parts of Washington. But in the economics sphere, for all the rhetoric, Chinese ability to inflict threats on
the U.S. economically can be pushed back against if we provide more value to the Chinese, so they have more dependence on us, more incentive to play along. And B, as long as we're collaborating with the whole world economy, to discipline China.
This is not what we've been doing.
And I think what President Xi is indicating is not peaceful intentions, not nice and kind words.
“But I think a realistic view that the world is a worse place if U.S. and China are any”
economic conflict, and ultimately that if he thinks time is on his side, he doesn't have to do anything right now.
And that's the other key point about economics.
It's never irreversible. The way it might be, say, in a military advantage. There is no end point. Right. Adam Posen.
He's the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also a regular contributor to this program. When we have questions about international affairs in China and all that stuff, Adam, thanks a lot, I appreciate. Thank you, Kai.
“Versant reported quarterly profits today.”
Better than analysts had been guessing, but not great.
For those, perhaps not up on the corporate machinations of the cable and television sector, Versant is what happened earlier this year when Comcast spun off a bunch of its cable networks. The parent company, Versant, is a CNBC and MSNL and E, said add revenues fell 5% thanks to falling ratings.
But one time crown jewel of any media company, traditional television, is taking a backseat to digital as you know in no small part because advertising can be targeted a lot better. So enter now, a Gentic AI ad buying. It has been all the rage this week at the up front, so those are the annual dog and pony shows where media companies sell their upcoming stuff to add buyers.
Marketplaces, Megan McCarty, Carina has that one. The up front started back in the 1960s, and the way television networks sell advertising hasn't really changed since then, says Tim Hanlon, a media consultant at the Voterra Group. They bring in talent and stars and sort of wax optimistic about the great shows and content
that they have, and you'll be a fool not to buy in bulk our advertising opportunities. This year's up front's included an actual song in dance routine from NBC Universal, featuring Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers. Then executives closed deals with advertisers at cocktail parties and steak dinners. Yeah, vibes, schmoozing, that kind of stuff.
That works typically sell almost all of their inventory for specific programs at specific times, up front like this. Get it? Up fronts? Compare that to ads online, which are constantly shuffling and adjusting in real time, based
on who's looking and what's working. It's called programmatic advertising, says TV analyst Alan Wolk. It's sort of done by an automated system where it says, okay, if these factors are met, did this much money, NBC Universal Warner Bros. Fox and other traditional television companies are now trying out this automation using AI agents to buy and sell ads in a more responsive
way. So campaigns could adjust based on what's on screen. Sure, and we will be speaking, we'd want to run during property brothers because they're painting the walls and moving his paint. Hey, did they just score a touchdown?
Well, let's, you know, then run the commercial that we did, this says array 49ers, celebrate it at Domino's, whatever it is. Networks are also trying to provide more timely data about whether an ad actually drives business, rather than just how many eyeballs see it. But that's harder to do with the TV than a mobile device.
I'm making McCarty Carino for Marketplace.
“Coming up, the only thing I spend my money on is my car expenses and my groceries.”
Living rent free is a full time house sitter, but first, sure why not.
Let's do the numbers. Dow industrial's up 370 points today, 3/4 of 1% finished at 50,063, and as that guy had 232 points at his just shy of 9/10 of 1% 26,635 there.
Yes, and P500 gained 57 points, 3/4 percent, 7,500 and 1%.
First since, tuned up 9 and 9/10 of 1% on the day, former parent comp gas brightened 9/10 percent all by his loan sum. To buy now, pay later in an online banking company, Clarna Beat Wall Street's expectations for its first quarter. Thank you very much, strong demand from O'Luck, American consumers, Clarna Group, charged
up 20 and 3/10 of 1% the aforementioned in video has been cleared to sell the second most powerful AI chip to 10 Chinese firms that's from Reuters, the chipmaker accumulated 4 and 4/10 of 1% on the day.
We always recommend Shopify, it took us from an idea to a real business.
“We got set up, I think, in less than a day, with very little effort, we could just focus”
on the supply chain to the product development, Shopify gives us the ability to customize without the complexity. We can change something without introducing fragility or having to pay a developer. That's the total, and we leveled up our business with Shopify. Start your free trial at Shopify.com/AU.
Most intercontinental internet traffic travels through undersea fiber optic cables, that has been the case for a long while. It turns out, though, that a whole lot of Europe's data goes through cables passing through
a choke point in the Middle East, which, again, no need, I believe, to recap.
Just jidza, wrote about those cables and what Europeans might be able to do about them in the verge of the other day. Josh, thanks for coming on the program. Thanks for having me.
“So tell me about Europe's connectivity challenges with Asia going through the Red Sea, sounds”
not great. Yeah, so 90% of Europe's internet traffic with Asia goes through the Red Sea, and most of that through a very narrow street off the coast of Yemen, which is saying repeated cuts over the last few years, which are a bigger problem because of the conflict there. Sorry, like literally cuts to the cables?
Yes, yeah, so in 2024, who the rockets hit a cargo ship, which the crew then fled, the cargo ship drifted, and its anchor, which was down cut three cables disrupting traffic in the region, and then as far away as Vietnam. And then this happened again about a year later, and each time it took several months to negotiate access with for repair, best of all to come in and fix the cables.
It's obviously not new that that's a volatile part of the world.
“The Europeans, I imagine, have been working on a plan B if you will for a while?”
Yeah, for a few years now, there have been a couple ideas proposed, the most ambitious of which is to run a cable across the North Pole. Two cables, one through the Northwest Passage, one across the North Pole, the North Pole one is the farthest at the planning stages.
My favorite line in this whole piece is this guy who says the problem is icebergs.
I mean, it's a hostile environment, shall we say up there? Yeah, it's extremely difficult, and what the icebergs do is they drag along the bottom of the ocean and dig up the cables, cut them, crush them, which is an additional problem because it's difficult to go fix them if it does cover the nice. icebergs aside, this is not a cheap proposition, I imagine, like billions and billions
of euros. Yeah, they're saying a little under a billion for the first leg, which would go from Norway to Japan, the full cable, they're saying around two billion. Also, and now I know way more than I knew about this whole situation before I read this piece, we don't have any cable-laying icebergs.
No, yeah, there's no ice capable cable ship, the cable ships, no one, well, people have actually tried to do this in the architect before and it has run into problems for this reason, but icebergs are expensive, cable ships are a niche vehicle, and so no one has put the two together yet. So what's the plan?
Can they keep fixing these things in the red sea, or are they actually going to give the architect a go? So they've put the EU as put some money towards the architect route, towards exploring it, they're going to do a route survey, the summer, they're doing some other studies
To see how it could work, what the best route would be to avoid icebergs, how...
would work, those sorts of things.
“There's been more and more interest, I think this red sea problem has been a known issue”
for a long time, these cuts plus increased fears about sort of deliberate sabotage of cables has everyone thinking about resiliency and ultimate routes. Yeah, concentrate to the mind, Josh Jidza, future writer of the Verge, Josh, thanks a lot, I appreciate your time, thank you. and in the official lexicon, the data point is called existing home sales.
Personally, I prefer used home sales, but no matter the name, sales of said homes barely
budged in April, below expectations for the start of the spring home buying season.
Data courtesy of the National Associates and Realtors, by the way. Today's installment of our series Adventures in Housing is about existing in someone else's home. My name is Tara Little, I'm a full-time hascita and a social media manager, and I live in Darwin, Australia.
I became a full-time hascita when I moved to Darwin, I was living with my sister, and I was struggling to find work, and I was paying my sister about $200 a week and rent, which honestly isn't that bad, but it's not great when you don't have a job.
“So I started looking into Hassiting, I joined some Facebook groups, and that's how I came”
into it. Generally, I would say my average hascita is probably about two weeks, sometimes it's a couple of days, sometimes it's a few weeks. I've had a hascita that was four months long.
There's almost always a pet, it's just like feeding, walking them if they're a dog, at
the moment the house that I met, the irrigation isn't on, so they've got a very, very big garden, so I'm watering like an entire jungle at the moment. I've been hasciting for over a year now, I'll be really honest, I don't rely on this entirely
“as my main source of income, because I have a social media job as well, but the only thing”
I spend my money on is my car expenses and my groceries. As someone who likes to stick to their comfort zone, going into different houses, has been great for me to learn how to adjust to different situations. There has been times where I've woken up in the middle of the night and I've remembered the layout of the last house and I've walked into the door, but it's really easy to get
so used to not paying rental bills that you just don't want to go back into a conventional lifestyle I guess. I live out of three suitcases and it's a lot of loading up the car, unloading the car. This is what my life looks like, but I'm happy with it, I'm content with it and if anything that's told me, not over-consume.
Gar a little down under in Darwin, Australia. That thing I say all the time about how it really is a global economy, this is that, right? Tell us what you're about your adventure in housing no matter who's house you are living in, marketplace.org is where you can do that. This final note on the way out today, Stephen Miron is officially looking for a job, he
sent his letter of resignation from the Federal Reserve, the President Trump today, effective as soon as Kevin Worsh is sworn in, Worsh gets a fresh 14-year term on the board, he will serve four years at least as chair, starting tomorrow, that is Jay Powell's last official day in that job. Miron took his last moment in the monetary policy sun to double down on some of the
things he has pushed for during his relatively short tenure, better measurements of inflation,
Lose her banking regulation, shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, also lower in...
Our daily production team includes Livy Burdette, Andy Corbin, Maria Hallenhorst, Sarah
“Leeson, Sean McHenry, Michaela Sayah and Sophia Terenzio.”
Will story is the supervising senior producer, and I'm Kyle Rizdall, we will see you tomorrow,
everybody. This is APM.
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