Wine country is heating up

This is Marketplace.

“In Los Angeles I'm Kai Rizdoll, it is Tuesday, today the 24th day of March, good as always.”

We're going to begin today, not with the war, not with equities, not with oil or supply chains,

but with a slice of the financial markets that is beginning to become just a little bit unglued. Ever since the financial crisis is going on 20 years ago now, if you can believe that. Investors have been pouring money into what's known as private credit, nearly $2 trillion worth. Money that gets loaned out to businesses that were unlikely shall we say to be able to get loans from actual banks. Those investors though have been getting jittery, worried by some high profile of the faults and the future prospects of getting their money back.

So a lot of them have started pulling money out of private credit. Bankrun is a little bit strong here, but not by much Marketplace's Henry App gets us going.

“Private credit has gotten as big as it has because of the financial crisis.”

Banks had lost a lot of money on loans and Washington had imposed new lending regulations. Says Kent Belasco at Market University. That cause banks to become much more risk-averse and so therefore became a little harder to get credit. Especially for mid-sized companies. At the same time, investors were looking to put their money into funds that got a decent yield.

Says I'm your Sufi a professor of finance at Chicago Booth. Private credit gave them that. From about 2010 to about 2024, the returns on private credit were truly impressive.

“8 to 10% Sufi says and the borrowers didn't default much, but the good vibes have changed lately.”

Private credit firms made a ton of loans around 2021 and 22 Sufi says when interest rates were low. They're higher now and a lot of those five-year-old loans are coming due soon. And when debt comes due and the interest rate required to roll over the debt as much higher, then the borrowers are much more likely to default on the payment. Private credit firms have also done a ton of lending to software companies.

And investors are worried that AI is coming for them. But it's hard to know exactly what's going on at private credit firms. Says Lenore Paladino at UMass Amherst because they don't have to follow the same rules as traditional banks. They are making a lot of loans, but without needing to disclose what is happening with the loans, they don't necessarily have any reserves in case the loans go south and case they're not paid back.

And they aren't required to disclose or be supervised by federal regulators. All of this uncertainty in private credit at a very uncertain time in the economy has investors trying to get their money out.

We always have moments where all the seven, if there's fear,

then everyone will try to get out and be safe with their assets, be safe with their money. The thing is, a lot of private credit funds can limit how much investors can withdraw at any one time. And right now, a lot of them are throwing up those gates. I'm Henry App, a market place. Wall Street on this Tuesday, the war wasn't front and center in markets.

Nor though was it far from top of mind. We will have the details when we do the numbers. The program today, it seems, is loosely organized around the theme of things to keep an eye on.

Henry did private credit forums just a second ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics brings us our next item.

It's update on worker productivity during the fourth quarter of last year. So Paul Crumman has this quote where he says productivity isn't everything, but in the long run it's almost everything. It's really the primary way by which we improve living standards over time. That's Eric and Mac and Tarfer now a policy fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Research and until she was fired by President Trump after he lied and said she'd manipulated the jobs numbers. She was the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The fourth quarter productivity was revised down productivity growth to be clear.

But the trend is still pretty good.

One important thing to think about is that even after these revisions, the U.S. has been on a very good productivity run with a growth of 2% 3% and 2.2% over the last three years, which puts us on pace with some of the strongest decades in American post-war history in terms of GDP growth. That was set by Zell and Assistant Professor of Business and Economics at Chap and University. And this was entirely driven by down revisions to output, so not completely unexpected. Eric and Mac and Tarfer one more time.

And hours remained unchanged. And this revision did also push unit labor costs higher. That means that businesses are paying more per unit of output.

“And that's important because unit labor costs is a potential inflationary measure that the Fed does watch very closely.”

Ah, yes, the Fed. The thing that economists and people who try to make policy about the economy really want is productivity growth.

Productivity is amazing because you can use it on anything.

So the Fed doesn't have very difficult spot right now with a softening labor market. And both tariffs and oil price shocks pushing up on inflation. So output being solid is good news for the economy. And that tends to also be an input into the Fed's decision. Your obligatory reminder here that this is productivity growth for Q4 last year.

The interesting update is going to be what we're going to see for this quarter, you know, given the war and all. [Music]

“One of the economic throughlines of the war in the Middle East has been commodities and these spiking prices thereof.”

We have covered in turn the rising cost of oil and fertilizer and helium.

But there is an exception that proves the rule always and copper is hours today.

Copper has been sliding since the start of the year, hitting a low for the year over the weekend. Daniel Aquaman checked in on the market for the world's electrical conductor of choice. Atomic number 29 has a nickname in financial circles. Copper is traditionally known as Dr. Copper. Natalie Scott Gray, senior metals analyst at Stonex, says that's because the medal is used in so many economic activities from transport to construction to electricity.

It's a good brawment to basically for macroeconomic health. High copper prices tend to reflect optimism about future economic growth. And heading into this year, Dr. Copper's prognosis was pretty good. Says Morgan bazillion, a professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Minds. The copper market has done terrifically, right?

It's gone up and up and it reached almost record highs. As recently as late January of 2026. But prices have fallen in the past few weeks. Thanks in large part to the war in Iran. Says Chris Barry, president of House Mountain Partners.

Investors are worried about demand destruction due to an energy shock. The longer the straight of Hormuz stays closed, the greater the likelihood of a recession and slower economic activity. Plus Barry says new concerns over inflation mean the federal reserve and other central banks are less likely to cut interest rates this year. And of course higher interest rates lead to slower growth,

“which is another reason why I think you see a lid on the price of copper currently.”

Even though the market has been down, it's unlikely to collapse anytime soon. Says Albert McKenzie, a copper analyst with benchmark mineral intelligence. He says in the long term, "If you look at most companies for costs, including Iran,

you see that demand growth is growing significantly." He says that's because global population is increasing and becoming wealthier. And the world is more electrified than it's ever been. And with the war roiling the oil market, that trend is likely to continue. I'm Daniel Acreman for Marketplace.

has been focused outside our borders, which does make some degree of sense. But maritime transport matters domestically too. So we have called Austin Golding, is the president and CEO of Golding Bar's lines in Vicksburg, Mississippi. Austin, good to talk to you again. Great to talk to you, Guy.

“The first question first, as you know by now, has business?”

Well, business has been steady over the last year, lately around this spike in oil price. We've seen a lot of demand for barging here, really come on in the last couple weeks, but over the last year it's been pretty steady. Yeah, same more about the last couple of weeks and demand for the bulk transport that you guys do. You know, whether the price of oil is going up or down,

volatility brings barges into the equation. We can show up in a lot of different places and carry products to a lot of various strategic places that there might not be pipeline or rail access, definitely not enough capacity on the highways to serve. So barges come in to try to play as big a role as they can. Does it affect, does the price volatility affect that oil is up and gas is up and all of that?

Does it affect how much money you're making? No, it doesn't. I don't get to trade on the value of the product in the bar just the value of my time and how bad they need me. Gotcha, fair enough. I wanted to ask you about this waiver of the Jones Act that the president signed the other day.

Jones Act, of course, says transportation between two US power ports has to be by American crewed and American maid vessels.

“Since you're the guy in shipping that I know, what are you making that?”

Well, I'm highly, highly skeptical that the Jones Act's waiver is going to have much of an impact at the pump or for the American consumer.

If the Jones Act didn't exist, first people that would get hit would be the shipbuilders in America,

because all these vessels would be built internationally or a lot of them would. And then the mayor and her would be the next person that took a hit after their job was replaced for a cheaper option and offshore somewhere else. I think this is a situation where the impact of the waiver has been highly overstated. This waiver is 60 days. It's more structured, I think, than past waivers have been.

What do you think is going to mean sort of in the longer-ish term, the longer this war goes on? You know, I think there's a lot of discussion that needs to be had around our supply chain in this country. I agree completely that shipbuilding is way behind here. But there's other ways to help initiate more shipbuilding than just waving the Jones Act.

“I think you'd see investment really start to coalesce around shipbuilding if there was more guaranteed for long-term investment.”

You know, the hidden devil in these details is we don't really have enough Mariners now. So if we mask produce a lot of ships and you shore to order for a demand that really might not be there and a mayor that might not be there. We can cause another problem. So I'm all for increasing shipbuilding. I'm all for bolstering our ability to do that.

I just really question it. The Jones Act is the right first step towards that goal. A related but slightly different question. This is now geopolitics reaching down like at the very highest level, like at the levels of war, right? Reaching down into a guy running a family business in Vicksburg, Mississippi.

How often does that happen to you? Well, you know, being at the core of the energy supply chain for a lot of these major role companies, Geal politics is one of our probably our top five factors when it comes to evaluating a long-term business.

We react to the old markets into demand just like you and I seem to always talk whenever we have a flood or a drought.

You know, we're at the center of a very large supply chain and we're at the very top of the supply chain. After we touch it, it moves into smaller modes, smaller vessels, smaller communities. Geal politics when it comes towards small percentage changes in supply or large changes in our supply chain. It impacts us just because of where we are in that stratification of supply. Yeah, the longer this goes on, I imagine the bigger impact it has on you, right?

Oh, absolutely. And I think uncertainty is not great for us. I like to have certainty, consistency, spikes, valleys. They're much harder to manage through than a consistent, rateable business. Yeah, you're not the first person to tell me that. Austin Golding, Golding Baselines, that of Vicksburg. Austin, thanks a lot. Thank you, Guy.

[Music] Coming up, go essentially scorched from the sunburn and they'll turn into a raisin.

Well, that's not good, but first, sure or not, let's do the numbers.

Now, industrial is off at 84 points today, just under two tenths of one percent, 46,124 for the blue chips.

Down 24 points, thanks for asking for 10th percent, 65 and 56.

“Dan Aquaman was talking about copper, about some copper miners and processors.”

The BHP group, which operates several mines in South America, signed up at 8 tenths per cent. BHP also owns an Arizona mine with Rio Tinto, Rio Tinto up 1 and a tenth percent today. Freeport, Mac Moran, which produces gold and addition to copper, increased two and eight tenths of one percent. We could have done a gold today too, and commodities that have fallen in price down quite a chunk. Package meets and port earnings were Smithfield, report Smithfield, rather reported earnings today.

He'd expectations fourth quarter net income increased to 83 cents a share, and let us expect it, 68 cents a share. Company CEO cited ports prominent standing in Latin and Asian cuisines, popular with consumers. Also, Smithfield brought home the bacon to the tune of 4 and a quarter percent.

Bond prices down, yielded on the 10 year teen notes, it rose, 4.38 percent.

You're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace, I'm Kai Rizdahl.

“We, the American Consuming Public, have some expectations.”

Among which, increasingly, is being able to get whatever we want on our doorsteps as soon as we want. Amazon and Walmart and Target are on board offering every speedier delivery. And now FedEx is trying to get a slice of that action. FedEx, same day local, it's his new offering companies to consumers only. So far, that's be to see in the lingo Marketplace of Carl Havier.

Unpacks our expectations for getting things sooner and sooner and how that whole thing works, too. FedEx used to offer same day delivery services, says Bruce Chan, a senior equity analyst at Steeple. The company made a strategic decision to pivot away from broader based same day option for its customers, that it primarily used its own capacity to service and address. Steeple has an unrelated investment baking relationship with FedEx.

Chan says FedEx largely exited the same day market back in 2023, except for select items like temperature controlled pharmaceuticals. Now the company is offering local same day service again, this time by partnering with another company, one rail. Chan says this allows FedEx to reduce risks. They are not using their own own trucks and employees. Nowadays customers might decide to go with another company if they find out delivery might take a few days,

says per cost from your chandani at the University of Pittsburgh. Because of what Amazon has been doing, but Walmart and Target have been offering, that those expectations have gone up. Those are retailers, a Rune Sundaram at CFRA Research Follows.

He says to deliver for their customers, so to speak, they outsourced their last mile services to third parties, too.

They're able to increase delivery speeds to more cities, they're able to reduce costs. To pay for it all, Sundaram says those retailers offering fast delivery can lean on subscription fees in advertising revenue. As for the new FedEx service, spokesperson Jason Brenner says customers will see it as an option when checking out an order with a participating retailer. You can get it delivered in three to five days, you can get it delivered priority. Or you can get it delivered via FedEx today between four and six PM.

As for how much it'll cost, Brenner says, "We're not in the business of telling our customers the retailers what's the charge their customers for shipping, but we will have a very competitive rate card." And retailers, he says, "We'll use that to decide what to charge for same day delivery. I'm Carl O'Havier from Marketplace."

[Music] California wines get the lion's share of the attention, looking at you, Napa, and Sonoma counties. But one ignores other states at one's vitticultural peril, Washington State, New York, and for us today, Oregon.

Wine is worth $8.5 billion to Oregon's economy, data courtesy of the Oregon Wine Board.

“But grapes are a fickle fruit, and climate change is doing damage to the historically cool climate in Oregon's key growing areas.”

Marketplace and Mitchell Hartman took a trip out to wine country to find out how wineries are trying to stay profitable in the face of rising temperatures. I start in one of the Willamette Valley's most favored wine growing regions, the Yola Amity Hills AVA, or American Vitticultural area, about an hour south of Portland.

We'll pour you some Pinot Nwa. Pinot Nwa is the flagship grape of the Willamette Valley. Now you'll taste wine.

That's so good.

“Next we head out to the vineyard, 107 acres of trellest vines marching across ruling hills that mostly face south and west for the warm summer sun.”

We grow 14 different varieties of grapes. A lot of those grapes would have been just about unthinkable 20 years ago, like Cabernet Frunk, Shannon Block, but we're getting them ripe now because things are getting warmer. Things are getting a lot warmer.

In the last five years we've had three years of climate scares.

David Pot at some break wines produces Pinot, Chardonnay, sparkling cider, and vermouth with grapes from Bjornsson's vines. 2020 we saw the wildfires in the cascades that brought smoke into the valley, and I personally made some red wine that year. Didn't turn out very well.

“Had in kind of an ashy aftertaste, most wine makers had to throw theirs out. Another growing threat, extreme heat events says Greg Jones, owner of Abicella winery in southern Oregon's Umko Valley, who started his career as a climatologist.”

We heat down in 2021, 118 degrees in my venue, 126 up in Brisk, Columbia. Under that strain, the grapes, go essentially scorched from the sunburn and they'll turn into a raisin. At Oregon State University's climate change research institute, Professor Erica Fleischman has been tracking the growing environmental disruptions. Many of the extremes are not something that the agricultural industry in this region has experienced over the past 100 years or so, so we are getting longer heat waves, hotter heat waves, more frequent heat waves.

But there's a big caveat here. Up until now, warmer average temperatures in summer and fall have mostly helped grape growers. In some cases, climate change may benefit the wine industry. Historically, temperature here was a little bit too cool, and so up to a point it's been beneficial because it is a little bit more reliably warm. Though that might not continue, climatologists predict the region will keep getting hotter with more extreme events to considerably damage the grapes. Mark Bjornson remains optimistic, there'll still be a viable wine industry, making Pinoan Wars in 20 or 30 years. He says his investment is for the long haul, so...

We're mitigating regenerative farming, keeping a permanent cover crop building the carbon in the soil. In southern Oregon, where conditions are already as hot as parts of California and getting hotter, Greg Jones at Abisela Winnery is diversifying. We're going to ignition now, tend to cow, tend to amerala, some of these Portuguese varieties perform exceptional in the hottest years where we are. But there are big challenges to this strategy too.

“It's a long live crop. You plant a new vineyard today. You're wanting at least 50, 60, 70 years from it. The challenge is how variable the climate is today. How do you plan for something like that?”

Right now, growers are getting ready for a more immediate threat. It's been a super warm winter, mountain snowpack is near historic lows, so water shortages and wildfires may be in the cards again this year. I'm Mitchell Hartman from Marketplace. [Music] This final note on the way out, they news from the betting market's Calshian Polymarket by name. As Congress starts murmuring about how and whether to regulate them, the two are trying to get ahead of things.

Calshian says it's going to ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, and it is not going to let anyone involved in college or professional sports trade on contracts related to the sports they play or are employed by.

Polymarket is going to do basically the same thing. Oh, and in other news, they weren't already doing this.

Jordan Manjee, Sonia Maharaj, Janet Win, Olga Oxman, and Virginia K. Smith are the digital team. I'm Kai Rizdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

This is APM. [Music]

“Hi, I'm Rimahe, host of This Is Uncomfortable, and this week on the podcast, we're answering your questions around money in friendship.”

I'm joined by comedians and friends, Josh Gondolman and Allison Leiby, who helped give advice on everything from splitting the bill with friends to how to turn down a wedding to pay a for.

This is a score on relationships. I hate what weddings at the time. I feel very grateful to you.

“Well, into my 40s and out of this world of financial obligation.”

Listen to this is Uncomfortable wherever you get your podcasts.