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- Everybody welcome in on Mark Calprine.
Welcome to next stop. I've got a great episode for you today.
“I'm your host here as well as the Editor-in-Chief”
of the Live Interactivity of Platform two way. My work appears there and here. And today I'm very grateful that you've joined and a special look at the U.S. Senate in the control of the Senate in the midterms.
No guests today. Just here is truly trying to walk you through how to think about who's gonna control the U.S. Senate after the midterms. There's so much confusion, so much sloppiness,
so much that's wrong of that out people look at this. So I have done a ton of reporting about where the Senate stands, and I'm gonna present it to you today. So you can know what's next up in thinking about
and talking about whether the Republicans will keep their Senate majority or not after November's elections. A deep dive, the deepest dive you've heard on the U.S. Senate can control in the midterms. That's next up.
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how I see the battle for control of the Senate.
It's not a sure thing either way.
In the last couple weeks, many people, including myself, have said Democrats chances of taking the majority have gone from negligible to significant. And I still believe that's the case. I do believe that Democrats had virtually no chance
to win Senate majority before, even in an off-a-midterm election that should favor the Democrats. And now I think they have a chance, but I believe most analysts and the betting markets
are overstating the Democrats chances. And I'll tell you why, this is the most basic thing. When somebody says to you, I think Democrats are gonna take the majority. Or I think Democrats have a good chance to take the majority.
Ask them this question. Which seats are they gonna win, right? It's not an abstract question. Currently in the Senate, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority. Right?
After the election, Democrats will need 51 seats. A 50/50 tie doesn't help them because the Republicans control the White House. So again, I don't have my advocates out, but I can say this.
Democrats have to net for Senate seats to get the majority. That means if they lose a single Republican, a currently Democratic held seat to the Republicans, they would need to win not four, but five.
“And so you have to look at the current map”
and say, how are Democrats going to do this? They're gonna have to net four seats to go to a 51 49 majority. So what I've done for you today is I've talked to Republican and Democrats just across the country and the individual states,
people who are working on these center races or have worked on center races. And I've gone through and broken down. Where will Democrats get these seats? And if you do the actual breakdown,
what you'll find is it's possible that Democrats will take the majority, but the odds are not anything like what most analysts say, what the betting markets say. So again, right now, 53, 47 Democrats must net four. And there are, there are a handful of races,
nine races that are in play. Okay, three are races that are currently held by Democrats. So there were Republican pick-up opportunities. And six are ones that are held by Republicans that are Democratic pick-up opportunities.
Okay, now we're gonna run through all the individual races and I'm gonna talk to you about them. But what I'll tell you is that if you go race by race, it's a bit of a challenge. Democrats almost have to run the table, not quite,
but almost have to run the table to do that. What are the competitive races? The Republican race, the Republicans held Democratic held seats where Republicans have a chance to win,
Even in a year that should be good for Democrats.
You find those in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia.
“So those are three Republican opportunities to pick-up seats.”
And then the Democrats' opportunities, their best opportunities, all everyone would agree, are Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. And then there are three more where people talk about the prospect of Democrats losing,
are winning rather, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska. So the basic math ear folks is nine competitive seats. And I'm here to tell you, if Republicans win one of the seats that Democrats currently hold their in play, they're almost certain to keep the majority.
And their chances in those three, again, Michigan, and New Hampshire, and Georgia, their chances in all three are pretty good. In fact, I would say their chances in all three, in some ways, we'll walk through each individual one.
Their chances there are better than the Democrats' chances
of winning some of these Republican seats. So we're going to walk through them all individually. But you got to keep your eye on the math. Now, the house is a whole different beast. House traces tend to be swept up into a national tide.
And you look at the special election results. You look at the polling. You look at some of the other variables in these individual races and what seats have come into play. Democrats today will almost certainly take control of this.
“And I think they could win up to 25 or 30 seats net,”
which would be a lot under the circumstances. Now, we got to wait to see what happens with all this jerrymandering, we're waiting for a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act that could scramble all this. But we're not talking about the house today.
Except to say that Democrats taking the house with a big wave will certainly make it more likely they'll take the Senate. But Senate races make their own wind and weather. They're not a subject to the national tides. A lot of what determines it is.
They're an incumbent who raises the most money. What kind of campaigns they run, how good are the candidates themselves? That means a lot more in Senate races than it does in house races. So we're not talking about the house today, except to say,
don't think that what happens in the house automatically happens in the Senate. Now, what we are talking about is the unforgivingness of the math. And here's, I think, after doing a lot of reporting on this and thinking it through.
“Here's, I think, the easiest way to think of it.”
Look at the map here again. These are your nine races that are in play. Democrats, based on my reporting, have to win six of these or their chances of the majority are negligible. They have to win all the seats they're defending.
Maine is a new Hampshire is an open seat. Democrat, we'll talk about these individual races and drill down in a moment. New Hampshire is an open seat. The Democrats retiring.
And Republicans have a strong candidate. Michigan is an open seat. Democrats retiring Republicans have a strong candidate. Georgia isn't an incumbent Democrat John Ossoff. We've talked about him here before.
He's running a great race. But it's still Georgia. It's still a state that's more red than purple or blue. So to win the majority, to net four seats, Democrats are going to have to win all three of the ones
they're defending. And I'm telling you, that's not an easy task. Then the three most likely Democratic pickups that all my sources agreed. These are the three most likely.
One is Maine. Susan Collins is a Republican incumbent. She's the only New England senator Republican. She's the rare senator who represents a state that her party's presidential candidate didn't win.
But she's a survivor. She will not be easy to beat. We'll talk more about that. North Carolina, an open race, a Republican healthy. Democrats have a very strong candidate there.
That may be their best pickup opportunity. But it's not a slam dunk. We'll talk about that.
And then finally, Ohio, Republicans have an incumbent.
But he was an appointed Republican incumbent. He didn't win the seat. Democrats have a strong candidate, OK? None of those are shoe ends for the Democrats truly. But those are their best bet.
So if you take those six, again, three Republican health seats, three Democratic health seats. I'm telling you, mathematically, just as a matter of the politics of it, Democrats have to go six for six after win every one of those. If Republicans win a single one of those six,
they're almost certain to keep the majority. Not 100% certain, but almost certain. So again, just think about the rules of the game. One side needs to win six in a row. And the other side just needs to pick off one.
And even if Democrats go six for six in those races, they still need to win one more. Most likely from Texas, Iowa, or Alaska.
None of those are sure things for the Republicans,
for the Democrats at all.
First of all, they're all red states.
Second of all, there's questions about the Democratic candidates in all three races. Republicans in at least two of the three have strong candidates. So that overview should give you an idea of just how challenging this is going to be for the Democrats to take the majority. They got to go six for six in the course six.
And then they got to go in addition to that, at least one for three in the other three. Mathematically, that's challenging. And if you look as we won't a moment, you drill down on the individual races. It's tough.
I'll say again, Democrats are defending three.
If you tell me today, they lost one two or all three of them.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. OK, they're defending three. And then they got to win four of six of seven that they're challenging for. No, sorry, four of six that they're challenging for to win it. We'll see.
We'll see. So in a moment, I'm going to go state by state with you. And I'm going to give you the opportunity to understand.
“I think better than you'll hear anywhere else.”
Why it is that even my Democratic sources say, there's a challenge. There's going to be a challenge to take the majority. It's not the long shot. It was a few weeks ago for a reasons I'll walk through. But it's not automatic by any means.
And I really have to drilling down on this and looking at the numbers. Anybody who tells you the Democrats are the favorite to take the Senate. I think are wrong. Now, there are other races people talk about Montana, Nebraska. I'm not saying if it's a huge Democratic year, these races can't go Democratic.
They could, unlikely, but they could. What I'm saying to you is, you don't need to think about those. Because if those races, places like Nebraska and Montana, if those are going Democratic, they'll have the majority easily. But we're just talking about the tipping point.
How do they get to 51?
“And that's why I'm focused on the nine I'm focused on.”
So in a moment, we'll walk through all nine races together. I'll explain to you where I see things based on my reporting with sources in both parties. And that will give you the micro of the macro I just went through of just how challenging it's going to be even in a year where people have doubts about Donald Trump or Democrats are fired up or Democrats have won a lot of special elections, Democrats are raising a lot
of money in a lot of cases. Even with all that, you will have a better sense, I think you'll get anywhere else of what it will take and how challenging it will be. The race by race, state by state breakdown is next up. Going online without express VPN is like pretty your social security number right on your business card.
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Again, expressvpm.com/nextup. All right next up, let's break down the individual center races and talk about why Democrats chances of getting the majority are not as great as people are saying these days. And let's start with the three seats currently held by Democrats, where Republicans have a chance to win and let's start with New Hampshire.
This is an open seat retiring in combat and Democrats have a chosen consensus candidate. A proven vote getter, Congressman Chris Papas, he represents one of the state's two congressional districts. He's known throughout the state. It's a small state and he's right in line with the consensus the Democratic Party.
Democrats have done well in Senate races in the state for a while.
“I think he's probably the favorite, but the Republican primaries in September and John”
Sinunu is one of the two candidates along with Scott Brown, both have national reputations,
Both have been senators, Brown from Massachusetts.
Sinunu is a very strong candidate and his brother was a popular governor, his father was
“a popular governor, he was a house member in a congressman, he's a good fundraiser.”
And we'll see how he does. Some people, maybe my reporting say that he's the favorite to win, not just the primaries of September, but the general election. Other people say it's going to be a Democratic year, New Hampshire's voted for Democratic senators, mostly of late, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if John Sinunu
to win this race. Sinunu's don't lose often in New Hampshire and John Sinunu is a really smart, crafty guy and again, a good fundraiser. So that's one again, these three Democrats must win all three almost certainly to win the majority.
And I'd say Sinunu has a pretty good chance in that race, okay. Then we go to Michigan, Michigan's another race that's an open seat retiring incumbent. And then Republicans have once again a guy who's a very good candidate, Mike Rogers, former
“congressman, ran two years ago and narrowly lost to win the Senate race there.”
He's back at it, basically uncontested in an August primary and he's not the best fundraiser,
but he's okay and is a lot of support from the party like Sinunu. He has support of President Trump and the mag operation and the best argument for why Democrats may lose the seat is they've got a contested three way primary and none of these candidates are absolute top tier Senate candidates and one or two of them may be weak candidates in the general election in Michigan.
Haley Stevens is a congresswoman, she's the kind of the establishment favorite, Mallory McMurro has been in the public eye, she's a state legislator, state senator, but she's been kind of a darling of social media and of the MS now crowd. And then Abdul Issaid is a doctor who's the Bernie Sanders candidate in this race, very progressive guy.
Again, if you were just taken out the fundraising, if you were taken out even the state, and just said, experience candidate quality, Mike Rogers is a stronger, more experienced candidate than the three Democrats. Now, all three Democrats have the chance to sort of grow into the role once they win the nomination in August.
But they'll have spent a lot of their money, they'll be beaten up by the other two. It's hard running statewide, Michigan, ain't easy, and Mike Rogers has got the experience of having done it. Lastly, there's a governor's race to the state, it's going to be a three way contest with an independent, the former mayor of Detroit, and that's kind of scrambled things, hard
to know how it will impact, and what that happens in the Senate race. But this is another one where if you told me right now, I've seen the future and Mike Rogers wins whoever the Democratic nominee is, I wouldn't be surprised. And if it is, the Bernie candidate, if it is, the super progressive candidate, Michigan has not elected someone as liberal as him to statewide office in forever.
So let's see who the nominee is, let's see how strong they are. But I would say both the doctor and Mallory McMorra, if they turned out to be weak Senate candidates, not good at handling opposition research, not good at defending their more progressive views, wouldn't be the least bit surprised.
“So that's another one where I think Democrats, my sources, say, like Rogers could win that”
race. And when I do my reporting, I talk to people in both parties. If all the Republicans say one thing, if all the Republicans say Mike Rogers will win and all the Democrats say the Democrat will win, I factor that in and tie would go probably to the incumbent party in most cases.
That's not the case here, Democrats know that this is a vulnerability that Mike Rogers is a good candidate and he could win it. It's similar to Dave McCormick, who ran in Pennsylvania for Senate lost and then came back two years later in one of the seat, big advantage.
So that's the second of the Democratic held seats, must win for the Democrats.
And then the third is Georgia, John Ossoff. Now, some of my sources thought this was the most vulnerable of the three. I think it's the least vulnerable in part because there's an incumbent and part because unlike in New Hampshire, where Democrats have a strong candidate and Michigan where they might, the Republican trio running in the May primary, they're not, they're not great candidates
so far. Maybe they can grow into it. But my general rule of thumb about Senate races where there's an incumbent is that beating an incumbent requires an A level challenger and the incumbent has to have a scandal or be complacent or not raise money.
And Ossoff is none of those things. He's not complacent. He's working really hard. He's raising a lot of money and he's not having these scandals. So the three Republicans, two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter and then Derek
Dooley, who's football coach of Vrnawn in the state, they're all fine but none of them
Are A level candidates, at least not yet.
A primary is in May, maybe the winner will take the advantage of surviving the primary and
get a bunch of attention and demonstrate their medal. But these are not strong candidates and they divide, the party leadership is divided, you know, Governor Camp got Derek Dooley into the race to make sure that he thought he'd be the best general election candidate. He's not proven to be all that great so far.
“So once again, I say, I think this is some of my source to say the Democrats were”
Republicans' best pick up opportunity. I think it'll be close, Ossoff's not going to win at a landslide in a red state. But I think this is tougher because the other two are open seats. But once again, I say, if Ossoff loses his race because Collins or Carter or Dooley turned out to be a super strong candidate, good luck to the Democrats and taking the majority.
Well, they won't do it if they lose any of those three.
So again, you start out saying Democrats must basically go three for three in New Hampshire,
Michigan and Georgia. And they could win all three. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans won them, but I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats did. So now you move to the next, the second three in these, the six that are our main focus,
all of these are currently Republican health seats. And Democrats could win them all. So let's go through why none of them are giving me. First of all, main, okay. In Maine, Susan Collins is the incumbent.
Democrats have tried to beat her every six years. Maine has been recently become a tough state New England's become a tough region for Republicans. But Susan Collins was given up for dead politically six years ago. The polls showed her a defined a lot of people wrote her off and she won.
“And so you have to remember that you've got an incumbent, even though it's a Republican”
incumbent in New England, and you've got someone who's tenacious. She does not want to lose. And she's proven that her tenacity and her will to survive politically is as strong as anybody's. And she's not, she's not, I don't know that you'll run again after this, but she's not
ambivalent. She wants to win again. And the challenge for Democrats above all else is they've got a primary, June 9th primary between two candidates. Okay, and this shows the challenge the Democrats have, because I'd said to everybody
in my reporting, who would be stronger as the general election candidate for the Democrats to do this difficult task of beating Susan Collins. And my sources in both parties were split. Janet Mills is the governor, Democratic governor.
“She's a statewide proven winner, but she's an establishment figure.”
And she's going to have a tough time, some say, if she is the nominee, beating Susan Collins, because it's going to be one establishment figure he's been around for a while against another. Collins is seeing company incumbents usually win. Mills is the favored candidate of Senator Schumer and the party establishment who liked the thought of a governor running for Senate, that's safe, that's standard, that's establishment.
The other candidate for the Democrats is Graham Platter. He's got an amount of attention. He's a blue collar guy, he's a guy who veteran and works on the C is just a phenomenon. He's a lot of money online, has had tons of controversy, okay, about his past and things he did on Reddit, things that have been offensive to many people.
He had a tattoo that turned out to be in that Nazi symbol that he had to get taken off and covered up. This guy should be dead politically, but we're in an era of the outsider. We're in the era where if you can save your supporters online, they're trying to attack me to take me out because I'm trying to make change. You can do well.
He's been defined. So this primary, the poll suggests Platinum is going to win. But Mills is determined to raise money and spend it, taking out Platinum. That means between now and June, there's not going to be too much attacks on Susan Collins. And in fact, Collins has so much support from the Republican super PACs and outside groups.
So, she'll have lots of defense, she'll have lots of money. And we're going to see a lot of attacks between Mills and Platinum.
Here is the first Mills, negative ad, major negative ad against Platinum, going after him
for some of the things he said in the past about some pretty controversial issues. Here's the ad. Did you know Graham Platinum wrote that women worried about rape need to quote. "Not get so f*cking up, they wind up having sex with someone they don't mean to." Disgusting.
Platinum wrote to avoid rape women should quote, "I'm like an adult for f*cking sake." Graham Platinum. Seriously. We blame the victim. That's a horrible thing to say.
Just qualify.
I have not seen this. He's a bully.
He just gives off a vibe.
Just no way. I could vote for you. No. Graham Platinum, the closer you look, the worse it gets. I'm Janet Mills and I approve this message.
Now, Platinum's got a lot of money too, just like Mills and he's going to defend himself. Here is his response video to the ad that Mills is now running against him. If I saw these ads, I'd have questions. These are words and statements I implore from a time in my life when I was struggling deeply after returning from war.
These words are not who I am.
“So man, I'm asking you not to judge me for the worst thing I said on the internet on my”
worst day, 14 years ago, but who I am today and the kind of senator I promised to be.
I'm Graham Platinum and I approve this message and I will not let you down.
So again, my sources don't really know who's going to win between Platinum and Mills. There's going to be debates and there's going to be more ads. But neither of them is a sure thing against Collins. Mills is going to have the handicap of being another establishment figure who's been around a while.
Platinum is going to face more scrutiny and even though a ton has come out of them already, who are Republican sources are confident that they'll unearth more stuff than hasn't been out there. And so far, when he's dealt with controversy, some people have been a fan of how he's handled it.
Some haven't. But I make Collins the favorite here, people can say this is a natural pick up for the Democrats because she is in representing a state that was won by Combo Harris. They can say she's a establishment figure.
“She's been around too long, but I think the matchup with either of the Democrats, particularly”
as they come out of a bruising primary in June, I my sources, my reporting suggests Collins is going to win. And again, if Democrats can't beat Susan Collins, even if they defend all three of their seats that they're defending, they're not going to take the majority. So that's number one.
Number two is probably the one I think is their best pick up opportunity, North Carolina. It's an open seat, Tom Tillis, the Republicans retiring. And both parties cleared the field for their favorite candidates. So the primary is passed and neither of them was seriously challenged. And so there's a long general election there.
And the Democrats have a very strong candidate on paper, Roy Cooper, former governor of the state as one statewide before have done very well as a Democrat in a purple state used to be a red state. The Republicans, I think, my sources agree, and nominated a really weak candidate. And they chose to clear the field for them.
Michael Wattley was Donald Trump's pick to be chairman of the RNC. He left that role to run for this seat. They cleared the field. Nobody else ran seriously against him.
“And he's not proven to be a super strong candidate.”
If you're a quasi incumbent, which Cooper is, right, he's the known quantity as the long time governor of the state, there's benefits that people know you, the people who like you like you, but in this era of the outsider, of the anti establishment populist sensibility, being a quasi incumbent may not be great. Wattley's just not proven to be a great candidate.
Cooper's raising a lot of money while he is not Cooper is demonstrating a lot of political skill while he has not so far. I've heard from some Republicans annoyance that in a state that they could hold that this is probably their best pick-up opportunity if you look at my reporting better than Maine better than Georgia.
And let's see, maybe Wattley will get better. I don't like to write folks off. Maybe Wattley will prove to be a super strong candidate. But today, Cooper's the favorite until Wattley proves that he can keep up with the guy who's one statewide.
This is a possible pick-up for Democrats, they're best one, but again, as the numbers make clear, it's not sufficient. That's the two core ones.
The third most likely Democratic pick-up, according to all my sources, absolute consensus.
Some believe Maine is a better pick-up, some North Carolina, but they're one and two, as the most likely Democratic pick-ups of two of the four, they need to net. The most likely after that, again, consensus is Ohio. You know, Ohio is a funny one, to evaluate Democratic candidate there is shared brown. He's been a senator before.
He lost his race, but he's a third-bed political athlete. It's a red state now. There aren't a lot of Democrats getting elected in the Ohio State wide. And he's running against a super weak candidate. John Huston, it was Lieutenant Governor, he's now, he was the appointed senator that after
JD Dance got elected Vice President, the seat was open, the governor put him in. He's not a great candidate, he's not inspiring, not all that well-known, not a great fundraiser so far. So naturally, Democrats for an open race with a strong candidate, have a chance, but it's still a red state, and we'll see how the governor's race impacts that the Democrats
Are actually doing better in the governor's race than some thought they would.
So that helps Brown, but I don't know about this one, I want to see more how Democrats
“frame the race, I want to see how the Republicans frame Brown, Brown, again, popular with”
the Democratic base, but has a lot of liberal positions, and I got to see how the Republican
quasi incumbent, he's an actual incumbent, but never won before.
I want to see how he does. At this point, I make the race a toss-up based on my reporting, but it's a must-win for the Democrats. All six of the races we've just discussed are must-wins for Democrats. They cannot win the majority without sweeping the three, whether on defense, Michigan,
New Hampshire, and Georgia, and the three, where they're trying to take away seats from Republicans, North Carolina, I said, I said, for it, it do hamster. So once again, the three were Democrats for playing defense, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia, and then the ones where Democrats are trying to take Republican seats, North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio, okay?
So that's a frame there. They got to win all six, and I've run through them. I hope is made clear. They're not the favorite to win, and they're not the absolute favorite to win in any of the six. I'd say right now, based on my reporting, favorite in North Carolina, favorite in Michigan,
depending on who the nominee is, maybe, favorite in Georgia, because all of us done a good job, by Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire. I don't know that my reporting suggests the Democrats are the favorite in any of them. Too soon to say, toss up, whatever you want to say about them. But that's a tall order, where three edges, three toss ups, got to win all six, got to
win all six if they want the majority.
“Not alone should tell you why I believe a lot of analysts are overstating the Democrats chances”
of winning the majority. But remember, the math, if they sweep all six of those, all six, they still have to win one more. And this is where my reporting got super interesting, because they're basically three states
that are candidates for that so-called fourth seat, that essential fourth opportunity, run
the table on the six, and then win one more. And there are three candidates for that possibility, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. And I talked to so many smart people about this, and what's funny is, I probably had a third, a third, a third for what people said was the most likely. And these are very smart people, very knowledgeable, access to data, understand the history,
understand the electoral politics, unique teaching to digital state. And it's funny, because I'd say to some source, if I said to a source, whether it's
“a Democrat or a Republican, they'd say, I think Iowa's the most likely fourth.”
And I'd say to tell me why, they tell me why. And then I take that logic to other sources, and no chance. My point is that a lot of sources need to be real specific about this. A lot of my sources look at the next three, again, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and it's not, they won't even rank them.
They won't even say, well, this most likely, the most likely. A lot of my sources rule out one or two, and some were that three for a chance of the Democrats winning, Republicans and Democrats, right? Some of them feel very strongly that there's one, but they don't agree on which the one is.
So, I started out thinking Iowa was the one. I'm very skeptical the Democrats can win a Senate seat in Texas, it's very skeptical. But I thought Iowa might be the answer, and I'll talk about Iowa in a minute. But as I talk to people about Iowa, people are skeptical, a lot of, you know, two-thirds of my sources basically skeptical that Iowa is the answer for the Democrats.
So as you go through these races, you see why people are skeptical. There's reasons in all of them. Now, one of them is gotten incumbent in Alaska, and incumbent Republican.
Iowa's an open race, and again, it's always easier for the party who doesn't hold the
seat now to win it if it's an open race. And then Texas is the hybrid about whether it's an open, open or not because it'll depend on how the primary comes out. So let's talk about those three. And again, I'll say, you got to find one, if you're, if you're the kind of person who wants
to go around and say, oh, Democrats are very likely to take the majority in the Senator. Democrats have a great shot. You got to have an explanation. You got to say, if you think Democrats are going to win the majority, they got to win all
Six.
They're going to hold, they're going to hold the Michigan, they're going to hold New Hampshire,
“they're going to hold Georgia, they're going to win North Carolina, they're going to win”
Maine, they're going to win Ohio, and then you got to name one more. Again, you're not a serious person. You're not making a serious projection or an analytical statement about control of the Senate, unless you can name the one more, okay? And the one more is a challenge.
So let's start with them. Let's start with Iowa. Iowa is an open race. John E. Ernst is retiring, Democrats have a primary in June. Republicans have a very strong candidate.
Every source I talk to both parties, Ashley Henson, Congresswoman for Iowa is going to second congressional district. She's strong candidate. Now, she's not an incumbent, she's not one statewide, run statewide, but she's a perfectly strong candidate.
She's a good politician, good at raising money, popular in the state, unites the different wings of the Republican party. So ain't nothing wrong with Ashley Henson as a candidate in the abstract, but Democrats
“first of all, they've got a primary, and you never know what the primary, right?”
You never know who's going to win.
They've got two candidates in the Democratic Party. State senators, Zach Walls, and state representative Josh Turric, Walls is the favorite, but he's a state senator. He's not a member of Congress, he's not run for federal office before. Not all that well known.
It's a red state. Generally, it's been trending ready. It used to be a purple state, trending red. And guys got away till June to start running in the general, raising money for the general. But there's countervailing forces.
First of all, Iowa farmers and people in ag and everybody in Iowa almost everybody's connected to ag in one way or the other. The tariffs haven't been good, gas prices, huge issue, diesel prices, huge issues in Iowa. And the Republican party has been in power for a long time. So there's also a governor's race where the Democrats have very strong candidate.
And that could help the Senate candidate. So because of the redness of the state, because of the candidate quality, I'd have to make Ashley Henson the favorite today, but I do want to see what are the economic conditions in the state when we get to the general election. What is the president's approval rating?
How do people feel about whoever the Democrats nominate, whether it's the state representative or the state senator? So this one we need to see play out a little bit more. But what we do know is it's a red state and Republicans have a strong candidate. That's what we know for sure.
Those things aren't going to change. So I believe still after all my reporting that this is the most likely where a democratic pickup, they win the other six, hold three, win three, and then win this one. But today, you couldn't say Democrats are favored to win the Iowa Senate race. Just couldn't say it.
Too soon to say anything like that, but there are reasons to think that they could.
“So that's what it would take, that's one path.”
Another path would be winning the race in Alaska. Now Alaska is a weird state, electorally. They use this top four primary system. So in August, August 18th, everybody votes for everybody on one ballot. And then the top four finishers, regardless of party, go to the general election.
Now that's a weird system and the uncertainty of that with the ranked choice voting at the general election means you don't really know it's going to happen. You don't know who the four are going to be. You don't know how the whole thing's going to work out. So between the top four system for the primary, right, in August, to the top Republican
candidate, the incumbent Dan Sullivan, he'll be one of the top four. The top Democratic candidate, former Congresswoman Mary Pelotola, he'll be the top four. So they're going to both be on the general election ballot. And then it's ranked choice voting. Great choice voting.
It creates uncertainty. Who will the other two be?
If somebody gets 50% of the vote in the first round, then it's over if not, then the
ranked choice starts and the last person drops out and their votes, second choice votes are allocated to the other three and so on. Dan Sullivan is a very smart guy, it's a hardworking center, it doesn't take the state for granted. The Republican Party likes him.
He likes Schumer to his credit. If it weren't for Chuck Schumer and Christian, what's her name, my own senator, Jill a brand, who's the head of the Democratic campaign committee, if they had recruited so well in these races, the Democrats would have no chance.
Credit to them, they got, they got mills in the race in Michigan in Maine.
Now, she may not end up being the nominee, but if it weren't from their point of view,
“that was a big get, getting Governor Cooper to run in North Carolina, massive, wouldn't”
be possible probably to win that seat without that recruitment. And then same with Ohio, wouldn't be possible to be a Republican incumbent center without shared brown. Big recruitment there. And then in Alaska, Mary Peltolla is, as good a candidate as Democrats could hope for
in Alaska. She won the House race, as a House candidate, she's got good skills, we'll see how much money she raises. Some Democrats said to me, they're not sure she can raise money, but Peltolla is got a chance. Now, I don't really think you can make her the favorite against an incumbent Republican
in a very red state.
I don't quite understand the explanations I got in reporting for this.
Why people are so high on her chances? But I can't rule that out again, rain choice voting makes it weird. We'll see who the other two finalists are. But that's another one. That's one of the final pieces that could come together.
I would be surprised to dance all of in losses race again.
“What is it take to be an incumbent senator, an A candidate, is she an A candidate?”
I think she's arguably an A candidate, but then it takes a Republican senator to not raise money to have a scandal and be complacent. Don't see it. Don't see those factors with dance all of it. So, I want to see what happens in August, I want to see how each of them does right on
the ballot altogether, but I don't think I'll ever make a maker of the favorite. It doesn't mean she can't win, but he's an incumbent Republican in the red state. And then lastly, Texas, that's the race that's gotten the most attention. The Democrats are set. They nominated a James Talerego State representative, you all know him because you've seen
him on TV. He's just a media darling. It's said to be a moderate, but he's really not. His positions are pretty liberal, but he speaks of as a man of faith and he made it through the primary contested Democratic primary.
Republicans have a runoff and their situation's different. Okay, their runoff is in May as of now, the president has an endorsement on the runoff. And again, you all know about this because it's got so much attention. John Coranon is running against Ken Paxton. And the conventional wisdom in the establishment is if it's Paxton, he could lose.
And my sources who are down on Paxton's chances of winning in a general election say, if it's Paxton, put this at the top of the list, that Democrats who have been one in decades in Texas would have a chance if it's Paxton because of all the scandals he's had. And his inability to win votes necessarily perhaps from independence. And there are those in the establishment who support John Coranon and incumbent, who
say if it's Coranon, it's over. Of course Republicans are going to win. Now the polls that have come out since the first round show that both Paxton and Coranon could do quite well against Talrycon. In fact, the other dynamic is opposition research has started coming out on Talrycon.
And it's harder for to convince the president to endorse Coranon when the main argument that John Thune and the other members of the establishment have is he got endorsed Coranon to save the seat because if it's not Coranon where we could lose it, if it's Paxton. And if it's Paxton, we're going to have to spend a lot of money to be Talrycon.
I've never been one who believed that for all the problems Paxton has, Talrycon just
has a bunch of problems ladies and gentlemen, he's more liberal by a lot than anyone who's won statewide in Texas than a good long while back when they were electing Democrats statewide decades ago, they weren't this liberal. Now the states demographically changing, but there's really no reason to believe a barring Paxton weakness that Talrycon could win.
Now what the Paxton people say is, Coranon could lose the seat too because Magga will be depressed. If the president doesn't endorse a Paxton or endorses Coranon, Magga won't turn out. That could be true.
“But I think the bottom line for this is the most likely outcome is the president endorses”
Coranon, Paxton gets out, I don't think the president will endorse Coranon unless he's gotten agreement that Paxton's going to get out. And if it's Coranon versus Talrycon, most of my sources, not all, but most say, that's not a contest. Coranon will win.
Why are they so confident that what we already know about Talrycon, as I said, is
Very liberal, but also they believe that there's a good chance and more will ...
So some of it's already come out, if you were thinking what would make a good Texas candidate
or what would make a bad Texas candidate in a general election. One thing you'd probably say is, well, if you want a good candidate, make someone who likes meat and if you want a weak candidate, make someone who's a vegan. And this video of Talrycon, I can't tell how many Texans have sent it to me, head scratching
“saying, is this going to be the first Democrat in decades to win statewide?”
Take a look. But also it's, as all of you know, necessary to fight climate change. It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption and that we try to respect
animals and all aspects of society.
And so I am proud to say that our campaign has officially become a non-meat campaign. So we are only buying vegan products from our local vegan businesses. So very few of my sources would make Texas the missing last piece, the fourth seat pick up, if it's corn and even now, if it's, if it's Paxton, some say, even then or Democrats are going to win the seat, the Paxton corn and fight could go on for quite some time.
If the president doesn't endorse them, they take it all the way to the runoff in May.
“I'm going to be a lot of negativity and, of course, the doom scenario for John Thun and”
other establishment Republicans is that corn and raises and spends and outside group spend millions knocking down Paxton and then Paxton's the nominee and he's got all the baggage that they laid on him. Here's just one of the many attempts expect there to be more unless the president gets Paxton out of the race.
Here's one of the many attempts to rough up Ken Paxton based on his background. He's got him a condo, it's seats about 20, so hurry up and bring him a big palm money. Ken's Lord Shark is a little old, please. We're favors last forever. So that one's not a give me for Democrats either.
And again, there could be a confluence of factors. If Magga doesn't turn out for corn and if he's the nominee or more likely of Paxton's nominee and independence and Hispanic voters just go and droves to Talereco, the Democrats could win that Hispanic votes going to be key no matter what and there's some indications that Hispanics are going to either stay home or vote more for Democratic candidates than
they have recently. But I don't see it lays in gentlemen, I will say based on my reporting and based on what I expect will happen to Talereco as this race goes on. I don't see Democrats winning this seat right now, even if it's Paxton.
And so you go back to the question, what's the most likely third seat? Is it Texas, a red
red red red red state? Is it Iowa where Democrats will have an unknown nominee and Republicans have a strong candidate, also a red state or is it Alaska where Republicans have a perfectly
“good incumbent and it's a red state? I don't know. I think I was most likely, but then”
you look at the fundamentals there and it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. So that's a challenge. That's a challenge to get that fourth pick up. So I'll say again, we've run through the nine races that are going to determine if they can take control. And I hope you've seen as I've gone race by race that I won't say again, they'll all go one way. They could all go one way. They could all go Democrat. They're
not all going to go Republican probably, but they could because these races are really up for grabs, but the important thing is just the statistics, right? I've gone race by race and I've shown you Democrats are not chewy on any of the nine. And that's got to be a caution for anybody making a prediction about Democrats taking control. All right. We'll take a quick break when we come back. I'm going to kind of wrap it all up and explain to you how to
look at things going forward because what I've told you today is a snapshot of where we are now. I'll tell you what elements to look at in the months leading up to election day. That's next up. Let me ask you a question. Do you own physical gold? Most people do not and given the current state of the world? This is worth thinking about. Aker gold makes it simple. You pick a plan that fits your budget. You then make monthly payments.
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“forward. Let's see who wins the primaries. That'll be key. And not just judging in advance”
a who's stronger in Maine. Is it plan or is it mills? Let's see how the primary roles out. Let's see what kind of skills they show. And what kind of ability they have to build a general election campaign team? What kind of skills they have to raise money? Democrats have had this huge advantage. Talk about it here all the time. They're good at raising small dollars online. Right. So let's see because that can be a massive advantage. Money matters
a lot in the center races now. Talk all the time. Also about Jamie Harrison, who's been a
guest here, ran for Senate in South Carolina, raised over $100 million online and lost
bad lead in Lindsey Graham. Okay. So raising all that money online doesn't do everything. But it tells you something. And then let's see what the national environments like for sure. Let's see how if the president's unpopular. Let's see how he now candidates do in distinction themselves from Donald Trump. If gas prices are sky high in Iowa, if diesel sky high, if the tariffs are still seen as a negative, does Donald Trump campaign in Iowa? Right.
Let's see how the national political operations work. How much fundraising is there from
“big dollars? Right. How much is raised from a billionaires in these individual states?”
What is the crypto sector do? Do they side mostly with Republican candidates? Same with AI. They're going to be huge financial players. And then the debates will be a big deal.
They're always they're always a factor and they're almost always a factor. And then running
statewide, right? We got some candidates like Cooper and North Carolina, Brad and Ohio, Mills and Michigan. They've run statewide before. But this universe of folks that we're dealing with mostly having run statewide, whether it's an open seed or for challenger. statewide having run statewide, even in an era of the outsider is an advantage. And so in part of why I'm more bullish on the Republicans' chances of holding them some is Johnson and
New News run statewide, right? Susan Collins can come in statewide. Mike Rogers and Michigan has run statewide. Those are those are advantages just as I say for the Democrats, Governor Cooper has run statewide, North Carolina, Brad's run statewide in Ohio. So, corn in this run statewide is an incumbent. So, that matters. You know, the experience of doing that means you've been vetted more. It means you know, out of building operation, et cetera. So, I continue
to say, obviously it's it's early and people say, well, it's too early to say, this is just a snapshot of where we are now. There's lots to play out the primaries, the debates, the fundraising. But if this were a matter of Democrats being more likely to take the majority than not, this field would look much different. And as you watch it going forward, just keep your list to nine. And as there are developments, particularly again, the resolution of the
primaries, ask yourself what the Democrats chances are to win all of the six, all of the six, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Maine, all six. They got to win all six. So, if you see any of those slipping towards the Democrats or towards the Republicans, and that could happen, you could see developments. John Sanunu could turn out to be an extraordinary candidate. Democrats could nominate a weak candidate, Maine. Shared Brown could turn out to be
a, you know, not not in the keeping with the mood of the state currently. If you see any of those six, and you start to think, well, that's going to be a Republican win, either a pick-up or a hold. That's not definitely it, but it's probably it. And then even if you say, aren't all six or on track for the Democrats, if you're Democrat, you're excited if you're a Republican, you're conservative. All six of those say them again, Maine, New
Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, even if you say all six of them on track
“for Democrats, you're still going to find the, the last pick-up. And that's why, you know,”
you'll continue to watch that those other three continue to watch Texas, Iowa and Alaska. And until you can say, Democrats have a great chance to win all of the big six, and one more, you can't say they're the favorite. You can't even say their chances are that good.
That's really the bottom line for my sources.
them said, oh, we got this. You know, we're going to be the majority. It's just a question
“of where we get. And the reality is, at this point, given the, given the complexity of”
Democrats pulling this off, I actually think it might be true, not saying it is true. It might be true that Democrats have a, a Republicans have a better chance of increasing their majority than Democrats have of winning the majority. Might be true. We'll see how things develop. But that just shows you what an uphill battle this is. It's, it's easy to blindly say, oh, yeah, Republicans are going to lose the majority. You got to get to plus four. You got to get to plus
“four for the Democrats. And honestly, I don't see it today. Now, Democrats could win them all.”
They could win. They could, they could, they could, they could hold their three in an all honesty. If it's a huge Democratic year and things break right for them, they could, they could win, they could win eight sentences. I really can't rule out that they could win that eight sentences. They could, they could win all the ones all the nine we've talked about. They could win Montana. They could win, they could win Nebraska. Good. But that's going to take a lot of stuff
to go their direction. As of today, as of today, if you're going on polymarket, you're going to lad bricks, you're going to wager your neighborhood tavern. Republicans will keep the majority. Keep an open mind. Keep watching it. But that's where it is today.
All right, that's it for today's program. As always, love having you here. You can subscribe
on YouTube, subscribe to the podcast, tell all your friends about next up. If they're interested in this kind of stuff, share this episode with them. Say, hey, if you think you understand the Senate playing field, you think you understand how Democrats are going to do and their chance to
“take in the majority, you need to listen to what Mark Alperon saying about it. I did a lot of reporting.”
Very grateful to my sources in both parties and some independent analysts for helping me piece through this. This is, this is going to be an interesting midterm and Democrats have their work at out for them to win the majority. Thank you for watching. Thank you for being a nexter.
Thank you for being part of the program. Thank you for watching. So you always know what's coming next
time.
