Odd Lots
Bloomberg
<p>Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.</p>
Recent Episodes
20 episodesHow the Speed of a Trade Got Down to Nearly the Speed of Light
The average person can enter a stock trade on their computer, hit refresh, and the trade is done. As fast as that seems, there are professional traders moving even faster, executing thousands of trades per second. Over the years, the need for speed got so intense that competing firms would aim to get their own systems closer and closer to the exchange's computers, so as to minimize the length of the wires and get their trades in even faster. How did this happen? And how does this change the nature of trading itself? On this episode, we speak with Donald Mackenzie, a professor of sociology at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. Professor Mackenzie has been studying the intersection of finance and tech for a long time, and in 2021 wrote the book, Trading at the Speed of Light. We discuss the history of finance technology and look at where the technological arms race is going next. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Introducing: Bloomberg This Weekend
'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons. Watch the show LIVE on Bloomberg Television from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time. Listen to the show LIVE on Bloomberg Radio from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time. Listen to the Podcast for the best conversations from the show. Subscribe on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-this-weekend/id1878739308Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DQ8CEg9LeS1xGJSaxt47lSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
James van Geelen on His Viral AI Doom Scenario
Something very unusual happened in the market in the last week of February. It sold off, in part, thanks to an article on Substack. James van Geelen is the founder of Citrini Research, which published a piece a week ago titled, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was not written as a forecast of an imminent disaster, but rather as a scenario analysis in which AI capabilities lead to widespread white collar job losses, triggering a deep downturn, and a financial crisis. Nonetheless, the piece went extraordinary viral, gathering all kinds of responses from economists and research shops and even Citadel Securities. On this episode, we speak with James, the piece's co-author, about what Citrini Research actually is, why he wrote the piece, and why this is a scenario worth paying attention to, even if it's not the most likely outcome. Read more:Bank Shares Walloped by More AI and ‘Cockroach’ Credit WoesPentagon Casts Cloud of Doubt Over Anthropic’s AI Business Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Scramble Is On for Businesses to Get Their Tariff Refund Checks
Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were illegal. And now basically every importer who paid those tariffs will be rushing to get their refunds. But will businesses actually get paid? And how do they file a claim? And should consumers get refunded if a business passed the cost of the tariffs on to them? On this episode, we're rejoined by regular Odd Lots guest Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a major freight forwarding company. We discuss how the entire refund process works, and the estimated timeline for payoff. We also talk about the booming secondary market in refund claims, where traders are buying up other people's claims for, in some cases, 50 cents on the dollar. Ryan also walks us through how world trade has changed since the tariffs began and the various way companies tried to game the system. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Insurance Costs Make NYC Construction So Expensive
It's hard to imagine New York City becoming significantly more affordable as long as it remains so expensive to build things. Whether we're talking about new housing or transportation, the city is a famously expensive place to do construction. There are reports of subway elevators costing $100 million per station. Public bathrooms end up costing millions as well. One driver of costs is insurance, which is a major national issue, but particularly acute in NYC, with costs as a share of a given construction project having surged over the decades. So what's the story? On this episode we speak with Elizabeth Crowley, the president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers' Association, as well as Michael Capasso, the president and CEO of CAC Industries, a civil engineering firm which works on various heavy construction projects in the city. We talk about regulations that push the cost of operation higher, along with other factors such as project delays and labor availability.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Alison Roman's Plan to Conquer the Tomato Sauce Market
Alison Roman is a cult figure in the world of food media. She's written multiple hit cookbooks and several of her recipes have gone viral. And her newsletter is incredibly popular. Now, she's putting her name on consumer goods, recently launching a new line of high-end jarred tomato sauce called, appropriately, A Very Good Sauce, which she sells direct online. So what has she learned about the consumer goods industry and its supply chain? On this episode, she explains why she entered the space, how she thinks about carving out a niche, and everything she's learned — from figuring out shipping to co-packing to designing a recipe that can be cooked in high volume. We also talk generally about the world of food and food media and how she thinks about bridging content and commerce. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jamee Moudud on the Intellectual Roots of Zohranomics
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani has certain ideas that make mainstream economists' head explode. Anything in the ballpark of rent control, specifically, is widely derided by defenders of the orthodoxy. But how did the orthodoxy become the orthodoxy? And how did the heterodoxy become the heterodoxy? On this episode, we speak with Jamee Moudud, a professor of economics at Sarah Lawrence College and author of the new book, Legal and Political Foundations of Capitalism. His scholarship sits at the intersection of economics and legal theory. He argues that one can not analyze the economy as if it were some separate thing that exists outside of the institutional and political realities of the time. We discuss the history of economics in the 19th and 20th centuries, and why certain ideas were adopted by the field, while others discarded and relegated to the margins. Read more:Mamdani Stacks NYC Board to Carry Out Promised Rent Freeze Mamdani Threatens to Hike NYC Property Tax to Fill Budget Hole Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A16Z's David George on How Private and Public Markets Fused Into One
This year could be a big one for IPOs. From Anthropic to SpaceX to OpenAI, we could see some gigantic companies hit the public market. But of course, the big story is that big, thriving companies feel less and less pressure to go public. In a different era, private giants like Databricks and Stripe might've IPO'd a long time ago. So what's changed? Why are companies comfortable staying private for so long? On this episode, we speak with David George, a general partner at Andreesen Horowitz, who leads the firm's growth investing team. He discusses how private markets have grown deeper and more liquid, which greatly reduces the need for companies to have public stock at all. We also talk about how he's thinking about the AI disruption trade, and when it makes sense for these private giants to bite the bullet and expose their stock to public investors. Read more:Private Equity Targets Clean Energy After Steep Drop-Off in 2025Andreessen Horowitz Backs Unicorn Kavak in $300 Million Round Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jared Sleeper on Which Software Companies Will Survive the "SaaSpocalypse"
The start of the year has been an absolutely brutal one for software companies. There’s a big fear that the rise of AI and advanced coding models will pull the rug out from this industry. But even before these AI fears, software companies were seeing their growth slow. So how does the business actually work? And more importantly, what types of companies will actually survive the “SaaSpocalypse”? (Or maybe “the CaSaaStrophe”?) On this episode, we speak with Jared Sleeper, a longtime software investor who is now a partner at Avenir. We talk about the history of software, the evolution of business models, and where the threat is most acute. He also talks about why investors are so nervous, and their fears that in the long term many of these companies will be worth zero, while in the short term, they’re not even making much money on a GAAP basis.Read more: Private Software Companies Release Earnings Early to Calm AI NervesSubscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ray Wang on How AI Is Causing DRAM Prices to Surge
For years, DRAM -- or Dynamic Random Access Memory -- was kind of a sleepy, commoditized aspect of chip industry. Growth was steady, but modest, and prices just generally drifted lower. Suddenly all that's changed. AI has created voracious demand for DRAM and consumer facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. But what is it about AI that consumes so much memory, and when will the market rebalance itself? On this episode, we speak with Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, who recently co-authored a report titled, Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom. We discuss the implications of this memory boom, how producers are responding to surging prices, and whether or not the Chinese companies in the space can catch up to the Korean giants, such as Samsung and Hynix. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Sixth Bureau, Episode 1: Your Friend From Nanjing
It’s an open secret that the Chinese government has engaged in a global campaign to acquire intellectual property from foreign rivals. At the center of that campaign is the Ministry of State Security, China’s elusive intelligence agency. The US has apprehended hundreds of people accused of giving information to the MSS, but the agency’s inner workings have been a mystery — until now. Today, we’re bringing you Episode 1 of The Sixth Bureau, a limited-run series from The Big Take. The series follows an MSS intelligence officer whose mission was to acquire the crown jewels of American aerospace companies. With aliases, blackmail and the occasional break-in, he targeted corporate giants. That is, until his sloppiness — and a cunning FBI sting — led to a stunning reversal: Xu Yanjun became the first Chinese intelligence officer ever convicted on American soil. Listen to Episode 2, available now in The Big Take.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4%
The future is always tough to predict, but generally when it comes to inflation, a lot of the debate is about how long it will take the Federal Reserve to get back to its 2% target. In other words, people generally agree on the direction, but disagree on the speed. But our guest on this episode violently disagrees with the consensus direction. Peterson Institute President Adam Posen thinks inflation will be back at 4% by the end of the year. He first unveiled his thesis in a piece co-written with Lazard's Peter Orszag last month. Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate. In this conversation, we speak with Posen about his thesis, and why he thinks the reports of economic softening are mistaken. We also talk about the broader geopolitical landscape and whether Europe is ready to really change its relationship with the United States.More: A Very Non-Consensus Inflation Call Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets
We are rapidly entering a world in which there are odds on virtually everything. During the recent Super Bowl, the big prediction market platforms didn't just offer bets on the game itself, but also on more exotic facets, such as the first song that Bad Bunny would sing, even who would join Bad Bunny in the performance. And while a lot of people thinks this looks like gambling, it's actually regulated by the CFTC, an agency created in the 1970s to regulate derivatives. On this episode, we speak with new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who was nominated by President Trump and took his position in December. We talk to him about his philosophy, and why it is that these new bets are regulated as financial instruments, rather than gambling products. We talk about the tension that emerges when 18-year-olds can place bets on sports via prediction markets, even though in many states have laws on sports gambling, either banning it outright, or requiring participants to be at least 21. We also talk about crypto regulation, and whether perpetual futures -- which have exploded in the crypto space -- could soon be coming to traditional markets. Read more:Jump Trading Poised to Gain Stakes in Kalshi and PolymarketGambling Stocks Sag as Prediction Markets Steal Super Bowl Bets Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ricardo Hausmann Explains How the Venezuelan Economy Collapsed
Ricardo Hausmann is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the director of Harvard's Growth Lab. We've talked to him multiple times in the past about the necessary preconditions for economies to grow and thrive. But in addition to his academic work, Hausmann was previously a policymaker in Venezuela, including a stint at the country's central bank prior to the election of Hugo Chavez. In this conversation, we talk about how Venezuela went from being the largest oil exporter in the world (even larger than Saudi Arabia for a time) to becoming the ultimate economic basket case. We also talk about the huge challenge the country will face in reinvigorating its economy, and why he believes that will be impossible as long as the remnants of the Maduro government remain in charge.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Evolving Money: The Tokenization Tipping Point (Sponsored Content)
In less than three years, the amount of tokenized real-world assets has grown eightfold, to more than $30 billion across equities, fixed income, private assets, real estate and more. And that’s just the start of the tokenization revolution, experts predict, because of four main drivers: Increased liquidity for illiquid assets, broader investor access, operational efficiency, and global distribution and interoperability. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Charlie McElligott on This Week's SaaSpocalypse
This week has been a pretty wild one in markets. Some of the most popular trades of recent years — like going long software, crypto, or gold — suddenly collapsed. Of course, there are plenty of things you can point to as the proximate cause of the selloff. AI is now an existential threat to SaaS. Bitcoin has seen some unflattering headlines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair stalled the debasement trade. But the way the market functions has also changed enormously, arguably leading to faster and more violent moves. On this episode, we catch up with Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura, who explains just how much market mechanics have shifted, and talks about the flows and positioning he's seeing right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How a Former Fed Vice-Chair Is thinking About the Next Fed Chair
The nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve obviously has big implications for markets. But it also comes with some interesting sociological questions too. What role does the Fed chair actually play in setting monetary policy? How do they communicate -- and influence -- members of the Fed board? How do they communicate to markets? What happens when someone who's been advocating major regime change at the central bank is now running it? And how do they balance independence with politics? In this episode, we speak with Richard Clarida, former Fed vice-chair and now global economic advisor to Pimco. We talk about what a Fed chair actually does and what we know about Warsh's policy stances so far, as well as why Clarida thinks there may be more volatility in the bond market as a result. Read more:Bonds Rally as Job-Market Angst Backs Fed Rate-Cut OutlookBessent Declines to Draw Line on Removing Fed Member for Policy Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How The US Can Become a Player in Rare Earth Metals
China's dominance of the rare earths market is well known. This not only creates potential vulnerabilities for companies, should access to those rare earths ever get cut off, it also gives China significant leverage in trade negotiations right now. Of course, the issue is not that China is naturally endowed with more of these materials, but rather that, over the decades, it's built up an industrial ecosystem to mine and process them. So, is there any prospect of the US entering the arena in a way that's actually competitive? Our guest says yes. Heidi Crebo-Rediker is a senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomics Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Earlier in her career, she was the US State Department's first chief economist. For the CFR, Heidi has undertaken an extensive study of the US position with respect to rare earths and developed a broad set of suggestions for how the US can actually compete. She discusses the resources we have right now, and the technologies and policies that could make the US competitive in this arena. Read the report here: https://www.cfr.org/report/leapfrogging-chinas-critical-minerals-dominance/ Read more:Why China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Is So Hard to BreakEU to Offer US Critical Minerals Partnership to Check China Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Surprising Similarity Between the US and Chinese Internets
In the 90s, there was a lot of talk about how the Internet would be a liberalizing force in the world. Bill Clinton famously predicted that it would be impossible for China to lock down the Internet, and that this would have profound effects on domestic politics. Of course that didn't come true -- China has done a remarkable job of controlling what gets behind the firewall. But then furthermore, the Internet hasn't had the liberalizing effects in the US either. On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Yi-Ling Liu, the author of the fascinating new book The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet. The book traces the rise of the Chinese Internet, and how its users navigate the "dance" between freedom and censorship. She talks about the early visions for the Internet in China, and how over time it became a hotbed of nationalism. We discuss what's similar and different, and also what happens when users in both countries are given the opportunity to easily make contact withe each other on social media. Read more: China AI Hardware Firms Trump Internet Giants in Growth Outlook Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Utilities Analyst Who Says the Data Center Demand Story Doesn't Add Up
Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these new data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a "picks and shovels" approach. But one long-time analyst says that — from a utilities perspective — we're already set to overbuild capacity by twice as much as is needed. On this episode, Andy DeVries, co-head of investment grade credit and head of utilities and power at CreditSights, talks to us about the math behind his infrastructure overbuild analysis, who has been making money (so far) from the data center boom, and what we already see playing out in the credit markets. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.