Obama's Campaign Manager's 2028 Scouting Report

- Welcome to Plad save America.

I'm John Favre. Today I'm joined by my old friend in colleague David Pluff, the former White House senior advisor to Barack Obama, as well as his 2008 campaign manager and a senior advisor to Kamala Harris's 107-day campaign.

Pluff's one of the smartest and most committed people I've ever met in Democratic politics. So when I saw that he published a piece in the New York Times, about the Democratic Party's new early state calendar, and how he thinks it will fundamentally reshape the 2028 primary,

I had a million questions I wanted to ask him. I first got his thoughts on the final stretch of the 2026 midterms and what he thinks Democrats need to do to close the deal with voters and all the key states and races. And then we dug into the 2028 primary,

which believe it or not, we'll basically begin the day after the midterms are over. We talked about the calendar, strategy, and he had some interesting things to say about some of the potential candidates,

like AOC, John Ossoff, and Kamala Harris.

It was, as it always is, with Pluff, a great conversation

that I could have kept going for hours. We'll get to in a minute, but before we do, please consider becoming a paying subscriber to friends of the pod. Subscribers get access to ad-free episodes

of this show, Pods Av America, and all of your favorite crooked pods, as well as special subscriber exclusive shows, like our extra episode of Pods Av America, Pods Av America only friends,

where this week, love it and Dan broke down Darlene Graham's win in South Carolina, and lots more.

“If you want to check it out and get access to even more,”

newsletters, discounted crooked content, tickets, all kinds of good stuff, head on over to crooked.com/friends to subscribe. All right, here's David Pluff. David Pluff, welcome back to Pods Av America.

- Mr. Favreau, it's always good to be with you.

- You too, I looked at last time you were on was January, and you and Fifre talked about the Democratic brand, which has now been completely rehabilitated. (laughing) But I was gonna ask like, now that the first ballots

are set to go out next week, how much progress do you think the party has made over the last seven months, and trying to fix some of the problems, you and Dan talked about, you've written about, put it another way, like, how much of the Democrats

relatively strong political position right now, would you say is attributable to Donald Trump's incredibly weak political position and how much is the party's actually done some improvement? I think all of it almost is attributable

to Donald Trump and the fact that they're in power. So listen, there is to be an optimist for a minute, we've got some great candidates out there

“that I think are kind of defining for people”

in their own way what a Democrat can be in 2026. So that's great, but the party writ large, obviously, just look at the numbers. I mean, we've got a massive problem, and listen, I don't know yet neither do you and yet no one can know

for sure what's gonna happen this November. But you know, it could be more like 2006 potentially atmosphericly, and so the question is, are we gonna take full advantage of that? We would take more advantage of it if our brand was stronger.

But I think what we're gonna see is candidates in certain places have begin to show us the way forward here about what a Democratic offering can be in 2026. So, and that's gonna be the important thing to look at is when we see, after the election and look at the data,

the Democrats who overperform kind of the mean, even though this should be a fairly good year for us, we're gonna have people overperform that, and to understand why is gonna be really important going forward. - So, I know to a larger extent this depends on the race,

but what do you think the frontline house and Senate candidates in the most competitive races have to do in the next 60-ish days that they haven't done yet to close the deal with voters? - Well, I think in most of these races,

you're gonna have five, six, seven percent of people who are still undecided, so you've got to make the case to them. And I think what's interesting is,

“I think the case against the Republicans”

is largely set in stone. You've got to continue to remind people of this, and particularly for some of these incumbent house Republicans and incumbent Senate Republicans, make sure they own all the downside of Trump.

You've got to tie them to higher prices and health care and all the things people, obviously you're very upset about. But I think the candidates, I think we'll do the best, are able to convince people that they are not just

a flawed alternative, that there's actually something that they offer, that might be interesting and new and exciting to people. Then you've got to focus on turnout and make sure that we're getting strong enough turnout.

And I think in the red states, particularly in center races, but this is true in some of the outer red house races. You know, we all see the polls, maybe they're all bullshit, but let's say they're accurate.

in Texas, in Alaska, you know, who are winning, but they're still at like 46, 47, 48.

And I always remind people, like,

when we see a poll that has a Democrat at 47 and a Republican at 42, yeah, it's better than the alternative, but that's 89% of the vote. What's happening to the other 11%?

“And so for these candidates, you have to focus on that.”

And the good ones know this, which is, let's say in that scenario, most of that 11% is going to go to the Republican in some of these tough places. So you've got to figure out where's the 3% of that, you know, 11% that's out there that I can bring home.

So that really is the focus I think of all of these candidates is, and I think it's going to require in some of the toughest districts in tough ascent of states, it can't just be anti-Republican vote. That is why we're in the position where in it's a great position,

but in this way, like a James Tallarico, you know, maybe we'll see this with an Osborne in Nebraska, a Turk, these candidates who are exceptional candidates, you know, have the ability to get that extra one or two percent because of who they are, not just because they're a Democrat.

- Yeah, this kind of leads to my next question,

which is I saw this week, Troy Jackson released his first ads.

They were like positive biospots. Abdul Elsayad mixed it up with Jesse Waters on Fox. I saw some people say, you know, these candidates shouldn't do all that much to make the race about them, everything should be about trying

to tie their opponents to Donald Trump. Obviously, everyone has to do a little bit of both, but what is your sense of the right balance there? - Well, I think sort of atmospherically, most of these Republican candidates

are already paying the price for being in Donald Trump's party and for a lot of them doing his bidding. So of course, over the next few weeks, and you're gonna want to continue to remind people of that. And, you know, the most interesting way to do that,

I think, is to bring forward voters and voices who can speak to that, particularly people who said, listen, I voted for this person in the past where I voted for Donald Trump, I can't do it anymore.

I've switched, but I think to get, again,

I'm very focused on states where, and in the Senate in particular, this is hostile political territory for us. So, I do think you've got to give people comfort that you're an alternative that they can trust.

“So, it's a blend, but I think it's always important”

in campaigns, John, and you know this very well. Like, you've got to step back and say, what's the thing that voters already know? And so, then, how do we reinforce that? But, where's the opening where we can introduce new arguments?

Some of those may be new ways to refresh the argument, against Republicans, but I think Democrats have to, and so, when I see Jackson and Abdul al-Sayed and Turk and Rob San and all these people, you know, going into hostile places, do interviews,

that's what you have to do. I really, really believe that's the case, because we're at a point now where anybody who's truly undecided about who to vote for a weather to vote, it's kind of already baked in

that they're very unhappy with Donald Trump and the Republicans. So, I'm not suggesting you don't continue to remind them that, but that's just a fact. So, and again, I think when we look post-election,

the people who overperformed the average Democrat are going to be people who build to relationship with their voters based on who they are, what they're offering. By the way, particularly where they're different

from not just Republicans, but the Democratic Party and the status quo. Those are the candidates, so I think they're going to do the best of some of them. Well, like, I've been thinking about this,

'cause it's tough for these congressional candidates, at least, to like, really run on much of a positive agenda when Donald Trump is going to be president for another two years, because you don't want to get in the situation where you over promised something

that you just, people know that you're not going to be able to deliver, but like, and obviously the party hasn't, and maybe that'll change, but I don't think so, but there's been no sort of contract with America. Or even, I feel like I know six,

there was like an anti-corruption agenda. - Yeah. - What do you think about that, like, is it just race by race and people talking about individual things that they can do either in the next two years

or beyond that, or how does that work? - I think it's very individualized. So I think a national, listen, I think national Democrats should go on a cruise somewhere where there's no cell service in no way they'll do interviews,

and let the candidates take the stage. And by the way, listen, if you look historically, I mean, the contract for America, actually, you know, as you know, we've been through this. When you win, you get to say why you want,

and when you lose obviously everything sticks to you. But the contract for America was not why they won. I mean, the exit polls back in '94, suggested that it was not a core reason that people voted.

“In the six, for six, I think that's what it was called”

in '06, like that's not why Democrats won. So I just think at the end of the day, we should give, particularly when you've got a brand problem as acute as we do, let's just give the individual candidates or like small businesses, you know?

Let them do what they think is best. Some of them may have very specific policy agenda, some of them may focus on corruption, some of them may be more about their biography

So let them do their thing because they overhang at the party. Like so right now, like to have Chuck Schumer and Democrats

out on the steps saying, here's what we're going to do

when we gain power. That would be political malpractice of historical proportions.

“So I think we should just, that's my view anyway.”

I think, I think, and it particularly when we do have, not universally, but there are some really strong candidates for the Senate in for the house running. Who I think are, again, showing us what a new version of Democratic offering can be.

That's quite exciting. And I think their biggest challenge right now is the Democratic Party brand. So let's not do anything to make that more complicated for them. - What are some of the biggest unforested errors

that the Democrats could make in the next 60 days that where are you? - Well, I think it is, you know, if I don't think there's going to be a national agenda but a national agenda, I think having a lot of discussion

about the hearings that we're going to have

when we take over would be problematic.

And I, this can sound like I'm kidding, I'm not. Like, I just think national Democrats should go in hiding. And let these individual candidates prosecute their case. And by the way, that's important

because we know Donald Trump's not going to go into hiding. - Right. - So he's going to continue to be out there. He's going to cause, by the way, this ad campaign he's talking about running with all of his money

that's going to be pro-Trump ad. - Amazing. - Phenomenally stupid.

“I think, although John, you should always step back”

and say, is there something they see that maybe we don't see? And the only thing I can think about is, it may help them with turn out a little bit. But all those candidates now are going to have to answer to Donald Trump running ads

on all the things that are upsetting voters

in their states and districts. So that's the other thing I think about it. Like, let him kind of dominate nationally. Let's make sure we're quiet nationally. And let's let some of these great candidates

have the best environment we can imagine in these closing weeks. And as you know, people start voting on about five to six weeks. So this is in a two-month question. - Well, on the damn side, like the discourse

and the coverage, I think has been dominated for the last couple of weeks, months about this. And this is partly because of the primaries and partly because of Republicans. This like, DSA, left versus center, left,

establishment, narrative. Like, how much do you think that, or how much do you worry that that might affect the outcome of the midterms or is this just an insider thing

“that most voters are never going to really pay attention to?”

- My view, and it's based a little bit on research, I've seen, but also instinct, is it's very much the latter. Like, the people that will decide the Iowa governor's race in the Iowa Senate racing Clinton, Iowa, or in decor Iowa.

You think they're talking about this democratic divide or in Toledo, Ohio? Absolutely not. And so in those states, you've got Amy Act and you've got Sherrod Brown, you've got Turric,

you've got San just to use those examples, who are defining what the democratic offering is in this election. They're not focused on what happened in those states, even though Michigan's closer to them, like what happened in the Michigan primary,

what's happening in New York City, they're just not focused on that. Now, I think our presidential race, not in the general election, but in the primary, yeah, that's gonna be a really big piece of it,

is what are people looking for? And I happen to believe it'll probably more about the person, their biography, their values, their performance, than at ideology, but that'll be part of it. So I really do not think, and by the way,

if the Republicans want to go spend a bunch of time saying, well, what you're really electing is democratic socialist, have at it. Because I don't think that blank and message to me works at all. I think the best thing they can do

is try and indict the individual Democrats running in states or districts to the best of their ability. But I think there's gonna be limitation of that as well, because listen, people are really fucking upset out there. And they are ready to switch,

even though they don't like their option to switch to. They like some of the individual Democrats, not the Democratic Party, and so for me, this is the challenge for us over the next number of years and even decade.

Is we have to get that brand stronger so that we reliably win more elections in more places so that we can have sustained power and control the White House in the Senate. Like this is existential.

And whatever happens in this election, we should not think or get overly confident that we fixed our problems because we have it. - Yeah, no, that's gonna be important because clearly the Biden folks thought that in 22,

because the midterms were better than expected. Any long shot races in the midterms? You think that it would be worth investing more in right now that people should have their eye on? - Well, the question would be,

I mean, you were in Obama's Senate office in 2006, right? - Okay, and I was very involved in that election, did a lot of work for Rom and the D-triple C. And that was the election where there were people who won an election, I remember,

that the D-triple C hadn't supported,

So, is that possible this time?

“I think it's probably less possible in the House”

just because there's so few real competitive districts, but was it possible that we could win some house races that Trump won by 12, 14 points? I guess it's possible. I think the surprises will be in the Senate.

And what's so exciting about the Senate? Now, Senate controls me really hard 'cause this is hostile territory. But boy, we're taking a lot of shots on goal this year. I mean, we've got a lot of races,

we can lose most of them and still win. So, the question is, in South Dakota, you know Montana, you know, in a Nebraska, are there gonna be some surprises? Those would be like, if we win any of those,

we're gonna have a year, probably as good as 2006. But, you know, Alaska, Iowa, by the way, we're now used to saying how competitive like Iowa is, you know, Ohio is. I mean, these are deep red states right now.

Yeah. And so, you know, let's not forget that, you know, particularly like if Sherrod Brown wins having just lost, I mean, you know, that's gonna be 10 to 12% of the electorate behaving completely differently

from 24 to 26.

“So, I think there could be some Senate race surprises.”

And again, I think that the people who might pull those races off, you know, they might have just got 48% in this good environment for Democrats. It's because enough voters said, you know,

there are different kind of Democrat, or that's a person I can trust, or that I'm excited or interested in that person. And that's where I think the surprises will come from. (upbeat music)

- Pots of America is brought to you by Zbiotics Pre-Alcohol. I wanna tell you guys about a new game-changing product I used before any night I would drink. It's called Pre-Alcohol by Zbiotics. Zbiotics pre-alcohol probiotic drink is a world's first

genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to break down acetolahide, which I can't pronounce, but it doesn't matter. - Yeah, 'cause you don't like it down already. - You don't like it either.

It's a byproduct of drinking alcohol. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme that is designed to break down this byproduct that we can't pronounce. What you do is you make pre-alcohol your first drink of the night,

you drink responsibly enough. And then you enjoy your next day.

Zbiotics is sold more than 14 million bottles, wow.

And earn the trust of thousands, including us. I literally will not have a drink without a Zbiotics. It is a game-changer for me. As you all know, as you get older, your body does not do as good a job, digesting alcohol, which means

a very calm, casual night out can punish you the next day. Zbiotics is just solved that problem for me. I cannot recommend it enough. Give it a shot. Try for yourself today, and if you're unsatisfied,

they'll refund your entire order. No questions asked, head to zbiotics.com/curkid. Code Crooked for 15% off your first order that zbiotics.com/curkid. Code Crooked for 15% off.

- Pods of America is brought to you by Hymns. ED is more common than guys talk about. The good news, getting real treatment is simple and through Hymns, it's 100% online. Hymns connects you with licensed healthcare providers

online, giving you simple access to legitimate ED treatment options from home. No awkward appointments, no pharmacy lines. Just complete a simple online intake and a provider will review your information

to determine if treatment is right for you. If prescribed, your treatment ships directly to your door. That includes Sedanafil, also known as generic for Viagra, available through Hymns at up to 95% less than the brand name version.

And if that option isn't right for you, there are additional treatment options available, so you can find what works best for your body. It's straightforward transparent and designed to make getting care feel easy.

To get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care for ED and more, visit hymns.com/curcut. That's HIMS.com/curcut. Hymns.com/curcut.

Not available in all 50 states, prescription required, see website for details, restrictions, and important safety information. Silvenifil is the generic version of Viagra. Viagra is a registered trademark of Viatrus specialty LLC.

Hymns is not affiliated with or endorsed by Viatrus. (upbeat music) All right, let's talk about the 2021 primary, which basically begins the day after the midterms. (laughs)

- When practically, I know, I know, I know.

“- So when people ask me what I think about 28,”

I always say it's really hard to know anything

until we know who the candidates are and the order of the early states. So now we know the calendar, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia. And you just wrote a New York Times piece about this.

You called it the most consequential primary shake-up in decades. I feel like you could have written another 5,000 words on this, which is why I wanted to have you on it. - I did.

- But they cut them out. - I figured, yeah. (laughs) But like, big picture. When you sit down to plan your presidential campaign,

if you're one of these candidates, what are the most important differences to consider between the old map and the new map? - Well, it's first of all, if you'll, if you'll great, if you'll grant me this,

whether they should fucking run or not. (laughs) - No, like, do I have something so unique to offer my party in the country that I should seek our nomination and I would want to be our president?

Like, I know it all seems like a reality show now. You and I have worked in that building. You know how hard the decisions these presidents have to make are, like, so let's start there. But let's assume they look in the mirror

and they say, yes, and they decide to run. You know, you're gonna have to have a message. And, you know, even though we have states now,

“so you just mentioned the six that'll be most important,”

you know, this is still a national campaign. There's no borders around content, there's no borders around controversy. So, you know, you don't want to fashion your strategy and your message based on states,

but as you think about this, like,

if you're not in the top three in the first state,

so in this case, South Carolina, you're probably done. Let's say the winner is, well, let's just say Kamal Harris runs, and let's say Kamal Harris wins South Carolina. Her challenge will be does she exit Virginia

with the same strength and black voters that she started the process in South Carolina? And somebody else has to figure out, how am I gonna grow so that I can exit really Michigan in Virginia as the leader,

because as you know, John having gone through this, right after Virginia, we get into super Tuesday and massive states with huge delegate yield. And the reason the black vote is so important in the democratic processes,

we apportion our delegates by congressional district for the most part, some of them are statewide. And those, the most democratic congressional districts have more delegates. And if you're the candidate who's winning 50,

60, 70% of the black vote, you're winning congressional districts and winning those delegates, like, let's say it's a CD with eight delegates, you could win seven.

And if you're winning all of them throughout the South, you're the nominee.

“So I think the question is for all these people,”

you know, how do I survive South Carolina? How do I, if I didn't win South Carolina?

How do I win Nevada or finish a stronger second

than I did in South Carolina? New Hampshire if it stays there is interesting, you know, you could see a candidate like Buttigieg if he runs, you know, not winning South Carolina of that are doing well enough winning New Hampshire.

So then the question for him is, in New Mexico in Michigan and in Virginia, can he expand his coalition? And even though Virginia's got almost 30% of the electorate there is gonna be black voters.

So we start with a state that's gonna be dominated and really determined by how the black vote allocates its vote. And we end it with a state where the black vote's gonna be incredibly important.

So Michigan, you know, Michigan too, I guess. Michigan too, you've got, you know, heavy black vote in Michigan. Obviously you've got some important Arab American vote big campuses. So, you know, I guess my view on it is,

you can't right now, I need the candidate say, well, okay, how am I gonna win the black vote? Well, you're gonna win the black vote by running a great campaign, by being exciting candidate, by building support in that community.

There's no way to like, extra in, oh, you're way to this. It's not like it was back when like John Kerry ran in '04 where you're like, oh, I've got 12 state senators in a state who endorsed me in that.

That doesn't matter anymore, really. I mean, with the exception of maybe Jim Clyburn, there's no endorsement that's gonna actually generate vote.

“So, I think the key thing for these candidates”

in these campaigns is they're basically running six governors races in these six primary states. And, you know, you have no chance if you don't exit Virginia, either as, well, if you don't exit Virginia as the front runner,

you're probably cooked, right? And you have to understand that. And each of those states obviously has some commonality with each other around issues, but they have distinction. And so, you wanna build a campaign to survive early

and hopefully then build momentum and exit Virginia into super Tuesday with the ability to be the nominee. So, you know, at the end of the, and the reason I wrote that piece is AI Fund,

these calendar changes fascinating. I think they're very consequential. But this is the campaign. Yeah. Debates are important and, you know,

going viral is important and raising money is important, but that all that matters is this set of six states. And that is the presidential nomination a process for us. Now, is it possible that we have two candidates of equal strength leaving Virginia, maybe?

But as we saw back in 2008, as close as that race was, you know, we had a delegate advantage. So, that's the other thing, whoever exits Virginia with the most momentum will probably do best on super Tuesday.

They will then for have a delegate advantage, which may not look huge,

but even if it's 80 or 90 delegates, they'll never be caught.

They're gonna be our nominee. Well, I just wanna, I wanna go through state by state just 'cause it's fun to look out on this. On South Carolina, so I do think that's interesting that, so there's the if Kamala runs if she doesn't run.

But if you're, if she does run like,

I mean, maybe you're planning it to win, but you're trying to get two or three. Like, is it wrong for people to assume, 'cause this is the conventional wisdom

that most black voters will ultimately vote for Kamala

or other black candidates if they run? Or do you think, even in South Carolina,

“black votes more up for grabs than people might think?”

- I think it's totally up for grabs. I mean, if she runs, just she starts in such a dominating position. Now, of course, and this isn't a criticism of her, it's just the reality.

Her strongest day will be her first day in the campaign. - Yep. - And then, you know, that support, she'll obviously try and hold onto it, but there'll be natural competition for it,

and there'll probably be some erosion. So no, I think it's a completely open question. Even if she runs, and I think the other candidates should not be trying to come in second or third, they should be trying to win,

and if they don't, and they come in second or third, then they may have be voted to continue. If she doesn't run, then I think black voters in South Carolina and everywhere else. You know, clearly, they're completely wide open.

So no, I do not believe. I think older black voters in South Carolina will be like older white voters in the upper peninsula of Michigan and Latino voters in New Mexico and Nevada.

They want to win back the White House. - Yeah. - And so I think they're gonna be very focused.

“And listen, I think the key thing here is,”

is this is an audition, it's a performance. I don't think this is how we should audition our next Commander-in-Chief, but it's all we've got. And so the thing I'm really looking for is who is showing the signs of having the ability

to communicate it in a way that people are getting information today, that they're interesting, they get people talking about them. AOC clearly has that instinctively. I think also off at least on a speech-making front has that.

So we'll see, but I think that that has become really important because, you know, it's not about giving interviews, it's not about giving speeches, they're still important.

But the most important thing is, you know,

this phone is the campaign, you know. And how are you utilizing it each and every day in interesting ways to reach tough to reach voters? And I think that that is something that I think is really going to be important to understand,

which is you mentioned in questions about ideology and races they might have run in one before all of that. It's important. The most important thing is in this particular moment in the fourth quarter of 27 in the first quarter of 28.

How are they performing? The other thing I worried about, I wondered about in South Carolina because it'll be the state where the most candidates are competing. Yeah.

And of course, we have to see the composition of the field. But, you know, the conventional wisdom, and I think there's a lot of wisdom to this, is that it is a more moderate electorate in South Carolina. Certainly seems that way, older, older black voters,

you know, rural voters, but if there's that many candidates, you do wonder if there's only one or two like really progressive candidates if they could do better than expected because so many of the center left candidates

are splitting all the rest of the vote. We'll see, I mean, it history would suggest that there's going to be a candidate who becomes the favorite for younger progressive voters, right? You know, if ADOC were to run,

I think it's going to be her. And then her question will be, how do I build from there? I mean, she probably start with a very enviable base.

“If it's not her, then I think it's open question, right?”

And I don't see anybody out there right now, that's kind of a natural place for 80, 90% of that cohort to land. So I think that's a great question,

but I do think that South Carolina has never been first.

It's always been the end of the calendar. It's the gateway to the rest of the country. So this time, it's the first one. But it's a small enough state, too, where retail skills will matter.

So that's part of performance, too, by the way. And of course, if you have good engagement with voters in a diner or a bar or a farm, that turns into a great content. So I do think that, as you know, it's a decathlon.

And you don't have to be the best at every event, but you've got to be good enough at all of them to navigate this. I mean, it's interesting, John. I mean, like you, I have a lot of friends who are data geeks.

And they'll say, well, the most important thing is we think about who we should nominate is basically who has the higher wins against replacement in their state. And I'm like, yes, that's important that shows, but this is a whole different beast.

I mean, the political graveyard is littered with people who looked on paper like they would be great presidential candidate. Most people can't survive it. It's a brutal, brutal process. I think also the delta between being governor of a state,

probably a small state or a big state,

to succeed at each is his never been larger,

just because of the information environment. Totally, I agree with that. So I have a question about momentum, which is like, the momentum you get out of the early state primary wins

“are youably more important than the delegates at that stage?”

Yes. Momentums largely dependent on whether or not you beat expectations in a given state other than just outright winning. As a campaign, how do you even begin to set or manage expectations with a completely new calendar like this?

You don't have reporters with muscle memory of what these states did before and what it was like. Like, what does that even look like to start setting expectations as a campaign? I think it's really hard to set expectations.

I think it's set for you. Yeah. So even like regionally, let's, you know, if Bashir runs, he's going to be expected to do relatively well in South Carolina, fairly or unfairly. Yeah.

I'll have a new mark, Kelly, a right out west in Nevada, in New Mexico, so they'll be regional expectations. Obviously, there are expectations put on front runners or people who had strong pole positions,

and if they underperform in the first couple of states,

they'll pay an outsize price for that. So I think it's, I think it's really hard for a candidate to set expectations. Now, I think when you're right before a contest, so maybe it's a week before South Carolina

and a candidate doesn't think they're going to win South Carolina, but things they're going to come in second or third, they'll start talking about, well, that's exactly what we needed to go forward to Nevada. And here's how we, so there's expectations,

“I think right before and after contests that can be important,”

but, you know, it's a free fall. So I think it's really going to be hard. And the point is, like, surviving a state is not the same as having a chance to win. So, you know, you know this historically,

there'll be somebody, oh, how many tickets out of Iowa or New Hampshire? Yeah, people may be able to keep going so they can go to the next debate and not drop out, but they have no chance of winning.

And so that's what really matters is when we get out of South Carolina, who's actually got a chance to be the nominee, and my guess is that most, that would be three people, it could be two.

Yeah. And to your point about delegates, right? Although now, because some of these states are bigger than we have six states, I think maybe 10% of the delegates

will be in the first six states.

So, if somebody were to somehow exit Virginia with 30 or 40 delegately, that's not immaterial, but I agree with you, the delegates story begins on super Tuesday. So, Nevada comes after South Carolina 10 days later. It is a primary for the first time, not a caucus.

So, completely new race, lot more voters. What does that look like in Nevada with everyone? I assume everyone then is trying to take down the winner of South Carolina. Oh, God, yeah.

It's gonna be brutal. That's what it is. (laughs) Is that, so that seems like, and I also think that the conventional wisdom there is it might be good for progressives?

“But I kind of think that's a view of what the caucus was like, right?”

Where it's easier to organize and have, you know, highly engaged activists turn out at a caucus than it is a primary. And Nevada, you know, the electorate there is, it's not super lefty when you look at,

looking at the whole state, especially since this is a state now where they mail everyone about it. Yeah. So, I think, you know, it was a strong state for Bernie both times he ran.

By the way, so it was Michigan. So, there are two states where I think, if you are a progressive candidate, that gives you some, I think, comfort. But you're right, Nevada's a fascinating state.

I mean, it's a very diverse state. A lot of people just moving into the state. So, transient population, got heavy union population. Obviously, large number of Latino voters,

pretty significant number of black voters. You've got rural up state. So, it's gonna be a test. And it's also like Nevada. So, it's gonna be an absolute freak show.

Like those 10 days are gonna be, I think so and the most fascinating 10 days are just seen in American politics. So, because you're right, whoever comes out of South Carolina with momentum,

the challenge of the other candidates is to deny them that momentum, you know, in Nevada. So, it's also a relatively small state, geographically and population-wise. So, you're organizing matters there.

You know, you're gonna have a lot of probably first-time registrants to go after there. So, so what's interesting is, if the person who wins South Carolina,

and almost not, I guess, guaranteed, but it's almost definite that person did really well with the black vote. The question is in Nevada, are they basically able to get the same vote

share with the black vote or maybe grow it? Are they doing well with the Latino vote? How are they doing with union vote? So, it's gonna be really interesting. And I think that the other candidates are obviously

gonna try and improve their vote show with black voters,

to do well with Latino voters, with union voters.

By the way, there's big suburbs, Henderson, and places like that, too. So, a lot of suburban vote. So, you may begin to learn something about that as it relates to Michigan suburbs

and Albuquerque suburbs in northern Virginia suburbs later in the calendar. Because, by the way, what happens in the early states, you can have sea change, but like,

“I'll always remember, you don't back in OH on”

when we went Iowa. It's great at night as that was. When you looked at the counties along the Missouri border, we were just getting our ass kicked. Like, Edwards and Clinton killed us,

and that was interestingly enough, even though the story was overwhelmingly white voters and Iowa chose Obama, and they did. And it was a big part of how we won. Some of the challenges we had

in other parts of the primary,

and then even in the general, around race, you saw that night along the Iowa Missouri border. So, you begin to see patterns that emerge, and you can begin to get a sense of, okay, that person has strength and they've got weakness.

But Nevada's gonna be great for that, because it's such a diverse state. It has a lot of the types of voters that you need to win the nomination. (upbeat music)

- Today's presenting sponsor is simply safe home security. With end of summer sales happening, your porch is probably a landing pad

“for delivery boxes while you're at work.”

Don't get a camera that just films a thief, choose simply safe to help stop them before they even step onto the porch. Unlike traditional security systems that only alert you after a break in is already underway,

simply safe is designed to help stop intruders before they get inside. Smart AI powered outdoor cameras detect suspicious activity at the perimeter and alert live US-based agents to step in.

Simply saves agents assess the threat intervened through the outdoor camera to scare off trespassers and call for 911 dispatch. RCEO here at Cricket just got simply safe. She installed it herself,

and she said it was really easy. The cameras, the sensors, all of it to install, everything's worked great. And even when there was a power outage, this system was back online right away

after the power was restored. Simply safe's been protecting your world for 20 years, celebrate their anniversary with us and save 60% on your new simply safe system. It's simply safe.com/cricket.

That's 60% off. It's simply safe.com/cricket. Plus when you order right in our show name and the how did you hear about a survey to let them know we sent you.

Don't forget, there's no safe like simply safe. (upbeat music) So the big question about New Hampshire is right now, whether it happens. We've talked about this on the pod, so most people know,

but it seems like the two options here are now either the Democratic Party pays to hold the separate primary or the New Hampshire primary doesn't happen and then maybe your home state of Delaware gets the night.

How do you think this will shake out? 'Cause it's sort of tough to read the T-Leaves here based on the comments from people in New Hampshire. Well, I mean, New Hampshire can either be relevant at number three or irrelevant with a contest

that no one competes in if they insist on doing it early. So it seems to me, comment sensibly, I know it's tough to hold for them to swallow. They should go three. If they don't, then I would just sub-deleware in,

which is not about a ground state, but it is a small state, has some diversity, not really a huge number of Latino voters.

“But I think, you know, hopefully the folks in New Hampshire”

come to their senses and understand that being three, by the way, you know, so you have, you know, we will have a win-oed field by that point. Like, you know, New Hampshire's gonna be really,

really important, you know, is it? And by the way, we could have a different winter New Hampshire than we do have in the first two states, which makes them incredibly relevant. So we'll see, but I think at the end of the day,

it's not sense to me that you would give up any of your power and leverage, you know, to have a contest that no one's gonna compete at. - And I know that the other complaint then as well, it costs a lot of money, we don't have that money.

It feels like, between the state party and the national party, though, some money problems there as well, between all of these, like, you're gonna be able to find, they'll be able to scrounge up the money to hold this primary, if--

- I would imagine so, I would imagine so. - The other question I had about New Hampshire is, would you say that if, by the end of New Hampshire, after New Hampshire happens, if you haven't won outright, either South Carolina,

Nevada, or New Hampshire, you're done?

- Yes, and here's what's interesting.

Now, of course, Joe Biden performed very poorly in 2020 in the first two states, but he did come in second in Nevada, which is, I think, under-appreciated. Like, if he hadn't done that,

I'm not sure, like, Jim Clyburn endorses him, but, you know, he then became, okay, showing a little bit of life. The reason I think that's true is, like, in that case, he had no one, particularly Bernie,

had been able to claim or earn enough support

So it was waiting for Biden to kind of resuscitate. - Yeah.

- In this case, you're gonna have South Carolina first.

So, you know, the notion that you wouldn't have one South Carolina in Nevada, New Hampshire, but somehow you're gonna be able to go win Virginia to me kind of strange curriculum.

“So, I think it's gonna be, you know, and the odds are”

at that point, maybe you have three candidates of equal strength, but history suggests it's probably gonna be more like two. And, of course, by the way, if somebody wins the first three states, so if they're able to win South,

doing well with black voters, West, really diverse state with a heavy Latino population, and New Hampshire, - Venice is kind of older. - It's gonna contrary state, then it's over, right? So, but I agree with that, John,

I think this calendar is different in that way, which is the person who has the most strength with the black vote in the old calendar could get dinged up a little bit, and then know they at South Carolina hanging out there.

That's not the case this time. - So then, by the time we get to New Mexico, you've got like two or three serious candidates left. Max, right? And then this is a completely new early state,

highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country, not the early states, I didn't realize that of any state at like 49, 50% with Latinos. Maybe more moderate, especially on crime and immigration, it's a border state, like, what does that race look like

when you get to New Mexico with three people considering that electorate? - Well, you know, what's interesting about that is, you know, this is all fictitious kind of bullshit, but let's say, you know, there is a candidate

who comes in second or third in South Carolina and Nevada, but they win New Hampshire. You know, that's, for them to show that they've got the ability to grow their coalition. And in this case, it would be with Latino voters.

New Mexico becomes really, really important. So all the other way I look at it is, if you've won Nevada, you better also win New Mexico, 'cause if you don't, it's gonna look like, you know, your backyard expectations thing,

since that, oh, you won in the West, now you've lost in the West in a place with heavy Latino voters. So, it's interesting, 'cause your point,

New Mexico's never been on this stage,

and it hasn't been about around state in a long time.

“So it's a state that I think a lot of people”

don't know particularly well. Yeah. So it's actually made great educational opportunity for people, but again, it's not a huge state either. So I think, you know, building an organization there

is gonna be really, really important. And New Mexico is the kind of state where, you know, even though you're gonna be very focused on South Carolina, Nevada, you know, in 2027, you're gonna wanna spend some time there.

Right. I think that's a state you're gonna wanna spend a lot of time in. Then there's Michigan in Virginia, and I don't know. To me, it seems like this is that's two weeks of running basically

a national campaign just based on their size, where they fall in the calendar, the diversity of their electorates. If you survive until those two, if you're like one of the last two left, is that the kind of campaign you're running,

like more of a national campaign at that point? Or what do you think? Well, I think you're gonna be on the ground, so the week between New Mexico and Michigan, you're probably only in Michigan, but I do think that,

you know, as you get deeper into that, the early states, particularly now that we have six, I do think that it's harder, it's not like you're gonna be able to course correct in Michigan and like your weakness elsewhere

is kind of not known by voters, like these patterns emerge and expectations emerge. So I do think that the national discussion, the national debate is gonna be even national polls will be important, but you're gonna be bunkered in Michigan,

and then you're gonna be bunkered in Virginia that next week. And so, obviously, by the way, this is a challenge for the candidates because it was hard enough back when we did it to like you had four. Of course, we spend most of our time in Iowa,

but not all of it. So now you've got six and some of them are quite big, the last two in particular. So, and then you've got to build staff and organization and volunteers and resource these things.

“But, so I think that the national discussion”

will be more important in Michigan,

the Virginia than it is in the first two states,

for sure. - But yeah, that's sort of what I was thinking. - Yes, I think that's right. But you're basically, you know, do in seven eight events a day in these states, I think during that period.

And, you know, obviously, Michigan, you're gonna have the campuses there and incredibly important. I still think the Middle Eastern and Gaza issues will be important.

You've obviously got a huge manufacturing sector. So, you know, I think that, and by the way, I think that there'll also be a sense from voters, which is because Michigan is a big battle around state, like who's kind of filling the stage.

Like, you know, there's still an arc to this, and voters have a sense of like, I can imagine that person as our nominee and as our president. And I think particularly as you get to those last two states,

that kind of presence is gonna be really, really important.

or potential candidates. This is my bias, but I believe for some time that if you were to rank the different political assets a candidate could have in 2028, like number one would be talent, charisma,

the ability to effectively communicate, get attention.

I mean, I've always thought that was important, obviously,

but I think the information environment where in has made it just more important than ever maybe the most political, most important political asset.

“Obviously, that's not to say it's the best way”

to pick a president, it's not, but it is reality, but I wonder what you think about that. - Absolutely, I mean, to me, that holds the first, one, two, and three slots. And by the way, it's more important now,

but I mean, 2020 was an exception. I think that voters were really looking for not the exciting candidate when Biden was able to be Trump and obviously COVID was the driver there. But Obama, Trump, Reagan, Clinton, Kennedy,

like the most exciting candidate tends to 88 was another exception of that, but that was a weird race towards HW and Dacakis, right? - Yeah. - So I think the most interesting candidate,

the most exciting candidate, the person who understands the communication, modalities of the moment is generally in a good position, I think that's even more so now. So yeah, I think the ability to perform

to excite, to interest, to build trust, that is core. And I think that I think a lot of people struggle with that. Well, I've got a good biography, or I've won in my state, or I've got a good old care plan. It doesn't matter in a presidential race.

You know, it's, I mean, by the way, look at 16. That was a strong Republican field and Donald Trump mode them all down. Now, part of that was his party was just looking for something so fundamentally different.

I think our party as well. But also, he was a performer. - Yes. - You know, and he got it.

“And so I think performance is the coin of the realm.”

And I do think that it's got to be someone who excels at, you know, short form vertical video. Now, if they can do a three hour podcast about culture or food or sports, that's awesome, they still have to be able to give speeches.

They have to do good local TV interviews with affiliates in Greenville, South Carolina and Reno, Nevada.

But the most important thing is that content

that they're putting out every day. - I mean, I also think you brought up 2020. Joe Biden in that race is also someone with almost 100% name ID, right? He's the vice president to Barack Obama

and has been on the scene for decades. Everyone knows Joe Biden. And so there's a comfort there. I think that we're in an information environment now where it's really hard to become known nationally

beyond the political junkies like us and the highly engaged democratic voters that vote in the primaries we're seeing now in the special elections. There's a whole world out there.

And it feels like we haven't had a nominee from either party in a while. Maybe since our boss, who just kind of came out of nowhere and became nationally known. There was a Clinton, there was a Trump,

there was like McCain, right? - A Bush, a Bush, right? And so like, this is maybe the first time where, I mean, I guess if Kamala Harris runs, you know, she ran before, so that's she has 100% name ID.

But beyond that, sort of hard to get known unless you're super talented. - Absolutely, it's such a great point. So, and by the way, you can't force yourself to be known. The way you'll get known is people kind of experience

you on their phones or their TV screens and they want to know more about you. - Right. - And this is the important thing. I mean, most, the voters that will determine, you know,

our nominee and the presidency, you know, some of them are political junkies, but a lot of them don't. They kind of encounter information they don't seek it out. So, but I will say one thing about the early states, though,

like historically you've seen, like, whether it be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the old calendar, you know, they behaved differently often than the national polls.

So, you know, it's still most important

if you're running for president, like in South Carolina and then Nevada, like, that's where I want to be known. And if I'm less known nationally, you know, if there's a delta there, that's okay. To your point by mission of Virginia,

I think those things converge. But that's exactly right.

“And, you know, why will someone come out to a town hall?”

Why will someone, you know, look at and share your YouTube video? It's not because of the, the, what you're saying necessarily. It's kind of how you connect with people. And, you know, that all comes down to charisma and interest and performance and talent and, of course,

a good performer doesn't look like they're performing, right? No, it's got to be someone who's just naturally gifted in that way. (upbeat music) - Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry.me.

It takes an extraordinary experience. Either overwhelmingly positive or deeply disappointing for someone to take the time to write a review. Strawberry.me's positive reviews speak for themselves, proving why professionals rely on the platform

for certified career coaching. Not just a few reviews, there are literally hundreds of them. At strawberry.me/reviews, all unfiltered and glowing. Here's a sample review from a strawberry.me client.

Christa is an incredible, thoughtful, positive coach.

She helped me build my confidence and voice backup, revise my resume, navigate, and industry change, and become more intentional in my job search. Hi, we recommend. Review after review tells the same story.

My coach was amazing. The experience was transformative. And I landed a new job within weeks. When so many people take the time to leave positive reviews, it is clear the product is something special.

So if you're feeling stuck at work, do what tens of thousands of people have already done. Go to strawberry.me/cricut and claim 50% off your first coaching session that's strawberry.me/cricut.

“What do you make of the off-south boom lit as of late?”

- Well, he's clearly a very talented communicator. He's also, he's clear, he's strong, he's direct. I think voters like that. I mean, he's in Georgia. He's not in New York or Massachusetts.

I think probably in Diding Trump more effectively than anybody else, there's courage that comes with that too. And he's shown the ability, I think, to really be a great speech maker. The question is, in his own content,

in interviews, in town halls, I think right now he's probably not a stronger performer as he is on the speech stage. But he's also younger and listen, our voters are so desperate for things that are new and fresh.

And that's the other thing that's interesting. For, by the way, John O'Sup is said he's not gonna run. - Right. - AOC, you know, we'll see. But by the way, you probably get the same thing,

like from donors or reporters about it. I can't believe he might not run. It's like, well, it's actually a good thing if somebody really doesn't want the job that they shouldn't run.

Like, let's actually applaud them.

“But for some of these candidates who maybe think”

the one thing I'd say is, you can't pick your timing. Like, let's say Obama hadn't run in 08. And Hillary maybe ran in 1 and served to,

like in 2016, he'd be ending his second term

in the U.S. Senate with all the barnacles of Washington on him. So if you were a Democrat thinking that I would like to seek the White House, and is now too early, it's not.

This is the time to run, because you can't predict the future and is fast as things move these days. In 48 years, 48 years, you're almost certainly going to be yesterday's news. Yeah. So this is the time to run.

But, but again, I think all of us off is really capturing people's attention, because obviously he's charismatic. He is a great speechmaker. But also what he's saying, I think, comes across as clear

and courageous and with conviction, and people are hungry for that. Yeah, my question with him is like, what is the next act? Because right now it makes sense that he's going after Trump

and he's in a Senate race, and all that.

“Obviously, once that ends, you need to start talking”

about what you believe, what you see for the country, and you do these, you do podcasts, you do longer form into reuse, you do different content, you don't just do the stump speech, and so it'll be interesting to see that.

And that was wondering, like, a lot of other people, I see his speeches, and I'm like, wow, he's great. I haven't seen someone like that in a while, and then I think about how we felt about Betto in 2020. And I'm like, am I, are we just drawn to candidates

who seem like they have a bomb-a-level talent? And then when they hit the national stage, something goes wrong, there's a difference there, which is like Betto was a congressman in Texas, and if Osloff runs, he has just one Georgia twice,

you know, which is, that's a pretty good credential to match with the talent. But I don't know what you think about sort of what seems inspiring and like a good communicator versus like what actually works on the trail.

- It's a great question, John. But you know what's hitting Betto is a good example, like he got in, I can't even remember the specifics, but didn't get into the race well, right? Wasn't like a vanity fair thing or whatever, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

- It's a good, you know, even like John Osloff,

if he runs, and you know, spends his first,

you know, month in South Carolina, and it's like, well, this sizzle's not there. Like it's hard to recover from that, yeah. - Yeah. - Like, you know, it's a brutal thing, but, you know, I do think at the end of the day, voters

are gonna want to choose someone that, yes, they think in win the White House back. But they want to be with someone who excites them, who inspires them, you know, who has that kind of talent in charisma.

And so no, I don't think we're wrong to single out people who are showing signs of it. But, you know, the other thing I'd say, you know, giving a speech in the Atlanta suburbs that's filmed beautifully and clipped beautifully

is different than being like in Greenville with 15 people in South Carolina.

and you don't have your stuff that day. Like, it's hard. - Yeah, yeah. - I mean, listen, Barack Obama as skilled as he was, is you know,

the first part of 2007 was a big struggle for us.

- Brutal, Brutal Brutal. Obviously, we talked about ASL a little bit. Like, she is presumably making a decision whether she should seek the Senate seat or run for president.

“Like, if she was asking you, like, how do I make this decision?”

What would you tell her? She just should do what feels right to her. And I think if she actually thinks that she would be a good president and this is the moment to try.

She should run for president. I would even, for me it's not even, that's the key question. - Mm. - And then if she says no, then I think a secondary question

is, you know, what I'd like to be in the Senate. I don't see it as like, let's compare the two. It's like, and so I think, and I think of all the candidates. She's the one that from her performance standpoint

seems to have the broadest skill set. And she'd start with a strong base, I think.

And would have basically a volunteer campaign in waiting.

Like, in all six early states, AOC would start with thousands of people who would like, not just like, say, they want a volunteer, they'd like volunteer. So, you know, but I think, and by the way, there's an interesting, I think in the donor class

in the Democratic Party, there's a view that, well, we have to make sure the most electable Democrat wins. First of all, we have no idea what's most electable. We have no idea what voters will want. It's a long time away from now.

But it's not an out of the question, it's someone like AOC's most electable. Like, this is a terrible economy. And people are desiring maximum stability in their own life, which they don't have.

And they want it through maximum political instability. Like, they don't want to repeat a Biden or Trump or even a Obama or Clinton. They want something new and different. And even though she's been on the stage for a long time,

“so, but I think it comes down to not just for her,”

for all these candidates, but for her, not about, well, let me compare this center. It's like, do I want to run for president what I like to be president? And if so, I should enter the race.

And by the way, she's a great example. Like, I wouldn't say, well, I'll do it eight years from now. Like, I doubt that'll be available for AOC eight years from now. It's available now if she chooses to seek it. And she may decide for a variety of reasons,

that's not what she wants to do. And then I assume she'd run for the Senate and it'll be exciting to have her in the Senate. Now, one person who has definitely run for president before, so she wants to be president and his run for president,

is Kamala Harris. I noticed this week, both Rob Sand and Josh Turck, where we're like, you know, she's, we don't want her to campaign with us tonight. I want Mary Peltola, you know, sort of her campaign.

I think rejected an endorsement that was just a fundraising letter. The Kamala sent out for them, email. I think Rob Sand was just said to Jmart, point blank. Like, I don't know.

I don't think she should run when we need something new. What do you think? Do you think Kamala should run?

“Listen, I think people want something new for sure.”

I think for her, I think she'll make a very responsible decision. I think it won't just be about like her desires. I think she'll want to make sure that Democrats can win back the White House. You know, she would start in an enviable position,

particularly with South Carolina first.

You know, but at the end of the day, you know, my view is that there are a lot of candidates out there thinking about running for president. And what I think is clear is, I think by the first quarter of 28, even more so than now, and it's pretty pronounced now,

people are going to win something new. Now, by the way, Kamala would be the least new person if she ran. It may be at the end of the day, if she seems new and different, if she's got new ideas, if she's got a crisper,

like she herself could be not just, we shouldn't assume it's just like Kamala from 20 and 24. If that's the case, I don't think there's a market for it. So we'll see. And the other thing is, you know, if you're just thinking

about the X's and O's, I think she would know that, you know, I'd start in a strong position, but it probably is going to get eroded over time. That's not a lot of fun to be the front runner. But someone's got to emerge

who can win the plurality, the black vote, to beater. Yeah. And that's quite possible. But, you know, so you'd sit there. I think, on the one hand, you know that where the most voters

want something new, something different, you're not that. On the other hand, you've got a strong position in the race. And a bunch of candidates who, you know, don't have the kind of strength that she would start with. So I think it's going to be really interesting.

But, you know, my guess is she'll make a pretty self-list decision at the end of the day, maybe not entirely. She obviously has run twice. So she's wanted to be president. But I think at the end of the day,

she'll have to really think through. Like, what is the likelihood that people want a rerun? And I think the likelihood is not high. So it's going to be interesting to me.

And again, the other thing I'd say we're all these candidates and she's been through it, so she knows. It is a brutal, brutal fucking process.

You have to be okay with losing.

“You have to be okay with being humiliated.”

And ultimately, if you win, you know,

you've got the hardest job on the face of the earth. And, you know, you probably, you know, cut years off your life. I mean, what's interesting is, you know, every president, when you look at those pictures of them, looks so much worse.

Now, Trump doesn't look worse because of stress, it's just because he's on a healthy, you know, guy. But like, so you really have to want to do it. Like, I don't think Barack Obama was pathological about it, but he really wanted, you know, to take a shot at it, right?

And it is excruciating. So there's also just, yeah, there's the X's and O's and what's the field look like once the calendar, there is that gut check of like, hey, do I actually think I'd be a great president?

Can I win the election? But also, do I want to put me and my family through this? - Right, right. - 'Cause there's no shortcuts. There are no shortcuts.

- Are there any candidates you think could be really strong contenders who maybe aren't being talked about in that way, just yet? And I also, I know that, remember, you and Dan talked about the potential of an outsider candidate.

Someone we haven't even talked about, someone that no one's been talking about. That was in January. I feel like it's not too late to decide to run now, but it seems like it's getting late

to at least not have heard some rumors about people that are outsiders that might run. - Yeah, I think that's probably right. Although, listen, my sincere hope is that there's two or three people who run that you and I

wouldn't even talk about, you know, maybe there's like a house, candidate who takes a flyer, you know? Maybe one of these Senate candidates who might win a tough state decides to run.

- Right.

“So, I think the buried or entry is lower than it used to be.”

You know, people talk about John Stewart. Like my hope is that we have a massive field. As painful as those debate stages will be, we want a massive field and have people go out there and spread their stuff and see if people are willing

to accept them as our nominee and as our next president. So, I hope a bunch of people take a flyer on it.

And, and there's always, you know, John,

what's interesting is there is no way, even like Kamel is a frontrunner can say, "Well, I think I'm in strong shape in South Carolina." But, you know, it's a complete crapshoot. There's no way to sit in the well,

it's not like there's a secret plan for someone to be the nominee that no one else can see. You just gotta throw yourself out there. And, you know, most people, obviously, will not survive the process.

But, you just gotta have faith that, you know, your voice and your ideas and your background might be what our party's looking for at this particular moment. So, I hope a bunch of people look at it

that we might not be talking about. And, and I actually think it is, like,

“anybody that's successful in this election”

in tough places, I hope they like think about it. Because you wouldn't, oh, they're running already. That doesn't exist anymore. Yeah. You can run any time you want and you won't pay a price

and you might actually be advantage by it. Yeah. You think, like, if James Telerico

becomes the, you know, first Democrat

to turn Texas blue and however many decades, of course, people are gonna say, maybe he should take a look at it. Yeah, and I'm sure all of these people will say, of course, they wouldn't, in most of them won't run.

But, my point is there's no barrier to entry. Any of these people who, by the way, could even be somebody who loses narrowly in a place and decides to run. So, you know, it's kind of back to our point

is if you have talent, if you've got the ability to connect with tough to connect with voters, you know, that is the kind of thing that actually can go, that, that, that, that, that is evidence that you could mal

a strong presidential campaign. David Plough, I could talk with you about this stuff for another five hours, but I will let you go. Thank you so much for taking the time and let's do it again once the,

once the primary season heats up. Once the rodeo begins. - This should show. - Yeah. - All right, buddy, take care. - Good to be with you, John.

- That's our show for today. - Thanks for joining. Tommy John and I will be back with a new show in your feeds on Tuesday. - Positive America is a cricket media production.

Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Ferris Safari, with Reed Chirling, Elijah Cone and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hefco, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, David Tolz,

Mia Kelman, Ryan Young and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the writer's guild of America East. (upbeat music) [Clapping]