Pod Save the World
Pod Save the World

Don Jr.’s Big Fat Russian Wedding

1d ago1:33:0618,046 words
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The Houthis seize control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Trump rolls a grenade into Northern Ireland's politics, and a Russian oligarch funds Don Jr.'s wedding.Tommy and Ben break down some of the most...

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Welcome back to Podsate of the World of Tommy Vitor. I'm Ben Roads. Then as our listeners know, we are big boosters of FBI director Cash Patel. Oh, I miss show. Oh, he was up on Capitol Hill today, he's testifying before the U.S. Senate. I'd like to play for you and exchange he had with Republican Senator John Kennedy. Let's watch. What about the Beastie-Aldi?

What is it said before? It automatically disqualified any individual who participated on either side of it.

Obviously, we are never going to hire the criminals.

The Beastie-Aldi? Yes.

So you disqualified the animal. Why would you even deal in the Beastie-Aldi?

We are not in to Beastie-Aldi, but a lot of these individuals. I know you're not, but you change, you change, but I'm trying to explain it, hang out. You change the qualifications and mention Beastie-Aldi. It's up, if Joe participated in Beastie-Aldi, not as the animal, but as the human. Don't you like he ought to be qualified? If he voluntarily did it, sure,

but if he was trafficked into it. Okay, how do you involve him, terrorally do it? When you saw Beastie-Aldi, I'll say this with respect. The person who recommended it, why didn't you just say what planet did you parachute in from? You hadn't seen it. I had not. That makes me so happy. I've not been aligned today. I'd love to know some context. I'm fascinated by the woman sitting next to him.

If I don't even know that is, that's where I'm with the Senate at this point. I was, I wasn't the one who was just looking at her phone. Just like, like, no, but she's Googling Beastie-Aldi. What is happening in the United States Senate? So, am I feeling a strange bit of sympathy for cash? No, okay. The FBI lowered hiring standard. Oh, no, no, I said, whoa, whoa, okay.

To no longer discredit applicants who engage in acts of Beastie-Aldi among other things. It seems worrisome, but it's victims of Beastie-Aldi. So, like, what are we talking about here? Let animal force itself on the human? How frequent is this use case coming up? There must have been a trigger. I mean, I'm now with the lunatic John Kennedy here.

I mean, was there a case that triggered this? What animal did cash but tell want to fuck or has he thought? I think is the question here, I'm wondering.

Raise this in questions, timing. That's what's going on at the FBI. Just asking some questions.

Like, I realize there may, maybe there are evidence and recruiting problems over there. Maybe folks don't want to go work for cash. Like, there's a funny thing in the kind of intel deep state world that we all experience with. To get into the CIA, you could have a lot more of a checkered past. The FBI, they were, like, the, like, choir boys, Eagle Scouts, right?

Like, I knew somebody who would apply to be in the FBI.

And I think worked at a restaurant or a bar.

Found a bag of cocaine on the ground and, like, gave it to a coworker. And because this person didn't turn it into the police or whatever, like, failed in FBI. Interview was, like, that level of bullshit. At the agency, you can do a lot more stuff. Can we put a pin in my hobby ors, which is also democratic presence,

and to come in Joe Biden did this, and set the bar, like, marijuana use for security clearance. Well, now, our bus apparently you can go out to the police and waivers to that. But yeah, apparently you can go out to the chicken coop and have a great time and that's fine.

But if you take an edible, so that's what the deep states are to.

All right, that explains who's in the US government. That might explain why things are not going to well internationally. We're going to talk about this stunning military offensive by the Houthi rebels and Yemen that humiliated the Saudi government and created huge new problems for the oil markets and for the Trump administration and potentially humanitarian disaster.

We're going to dig into how it happened and what the ripple effects could be. Then we're going to unpack reports that Chinese satellite imagery has been helping around target US military facilities in the Gulf and even kill US service members. We're going to talk about some new numbers about the cost of the war and some exclusive

new polling about how Americans feel about the Iran war is their first exclusive.

Probably ends up polling. It's in a while. I mean, I feel like every day's in exclusives. Yeah, well, this is an exclusive show.

These takes are exclusive. These are hot. Yeah, you got to subscribe to these.

And then we're going to walk you through Trump's visit to Ireland and how Gulf will Gulf weekend might destabilize the good Friday agreement. Yeah, step it on rakes everywhere. Then we're going to tell you about how Don Jr's wedding became a counterintelligence nightmare. Some new reports about Jared Kushner and corruption and then some scary updates on escalating Russian attacks on NATO. Then you're going to hear my interview with Homsa Chaudri.

He works at a place called the Future of Life Institute. They're focused on, you know, kind of the downside risk of technologies like artificial intelligence. They're the ones hosting that big conference that's happening today, Tuesday, that includes Steve Bannon to Bernie, the kind of shows you this like bipartisan, anxiety at least about artificial intelligence. We talk about kind of the events over the weekend about all these AI

researchers coming out and saying, hey, this might lead to the extinction of humanity. Yeah. Some of the bio risks that are out there, what the government could or should be doing.

Very important in timely interview. And I think a topic that we probably should get too

bored, it's just sort of like, it's so big and scary sometimes. It's like hard to not cover it appropriately. We should get to this more. I mean, we've tried with increasing frequency, but the fact is that nothing else matters in some ways like beyond what happens. I mean, I've often thought and I think I've said in the podcast, but Trump may end up being like the B story of this time we're living through. For Beast Jailty. Well, I mean, just asking

questions. I would say I'm for the future of life. I'm for much of life. I should have a future. But you were saying, yes, like Trump, like the Trump, all of the badness that he has done, the stupid fucking ballroom won't really matter to us if, you know, some rogue AI creates a pathogen that's, yeah, this COVID-19. Or even if it's not like at that scale, but the concentration of wealth and power that a few people have is unprecedented human history. So that's that, too.

Even if like AI doesn't pose an existential risk, it could still upend democracy. Yeah, yeah. No, like this is the thing. I mean, I was jokingly the before, kind of dark joke, but now they're setting the bar human extinction. Is it like, if we avert that, we succeeded. But, you know, mass job displacement, no big deal, or, you know, mass of cyber disruptions, no big deal. No, no, no, like this is a spectrum here. And

you can fall short of extinction and be fucked. Yeah, same album, it's like, no, no global genocide, you're welcome. Yeah, so thank you. You know, we did our job here at Open AI with our trillion dollar IPO. Yeah, must be nice. All right, let's start with Yemen. We're six months into the war with Iran and somehow the conflict is still spreading its new places and getting worse and worse and worse for the Trump administration and the world.

The latest very bad news about the war comes to us from Yemen. We're over the past week or so, the Houthi rebels have captured us a big swath of territory along Yemen's Western Red Sea coast. The BBC estimates that they control that 80 miles of coastline now. And crucially, that territory includes the Babelman-depth straight, which is the narrow choke point that lets ships pass in and out of the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aiden and then on to the Indian Ocean or Asia,

wherever they're going. And for those keeping scored home, Iran now controls shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf through the state of Hormuz and their allies and at times proxy force, the Houthi rebels now control shipping in and out of the eastern Red Sea. In normal times,

those two waterways, like roughly one-third of seaborn oil trade, goes through those two waterways.

That's a pretty big deal for a global energy supplies and oil flows.

militant groups in Iraq that are allied with Iran attack to the 745 mile east to West Pipeline

across Saudi Arabia, forcing the Saudi to shut it down for what will probably be weeks of repairs.

That Pipeline has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels of oil per day.

The Saudis have been using it to bypass the straight or moose and get around the Iranians, but now it's offline for a while. And this offensive by the Houthis also risks restarting the Yemeni Civil War, which had disastrous humanitarian consequences just very quickly. In 2014, the Red Bull, the Houthi rebels seized a bunch of territory and Yemen, including the capital of Sanaa in 2015, the Saudis intervened to displace them. That kicked off this awful civil war,

they killed an estimated 150,000 people. The two sides who agreed to a ceasefire in 2022, they like froze the conflict, but left the Houthis in charge of parts of the country, and then the internationally recognized Yemeni government in charge of the rest. And that was the status quo until July. When the Saudis bombed, this Houthi controlled airport,

the Houthis retaliated, announced a blockade of Saudi ships, and then the fighting kind of

sporadically escalated until last Thursday. When the Houthis captured this major Red T-port city of Moka, then Friday, they captured this island, a param, a little island in the middle of the Babelman stepstrait, which is a great place from which to watch the times of shipping. It's also 20 miles from the U.S. military base in Djibout. Yeah, like that's bonkers. So Saudi companies, Bahamun and Salman, Saudis going on, freaked out, called Trump, maybe once or twice, asked him to

intervene. Trump said no. Trump was asked about this issue in Ireland last week. Let's watch a question. The Houthis called us, and they don't want to fight with us. They let us know. They don't want to fight with us. They don't want me to go after them. They don't want us to go after them. But they called and they talked to us and they don't want us to, they would much prefer not having us involved. And they're letting a most ships go through this is one country that they're not doing after

they went and we're getting that straight now. Well, I have my call with MBS. He's a good friend of mine, and I can just hear him, and he's going to work out and find the MBS. We should know there's reportedly about 100 U.S. military advisors in Saudi Arabia. I guess doing intelligent support, targeting support, God knows what else. Brent crude oil prices hit $109 a barrel last week. They're hovering over 100 today. Ben, there's so much to unpack here. Let's just like, let's pause

with like your initial reactions to what's happened. This is a massive story that like people need to

pay attention to because there's so many dimensions to it. So first, just the degree to which

we're fucked on global energy markets. I mean, if you take the Saudi oil offline through that pipeline and you're closing both streets, like we are in like acute shortage territory right away. You know, so the political instability in countries is going to ramp up. The prices are going to keep ramping up here. This is this is a cataclysmic event if it holds. And because you know, is it they can even rebuild that pipeline without the poothy sitting in it again. Right.

I mean, it's the rest there you go. That's first thing. The second thing is it really reveals the gross incompetence of Trump and everybody involved in this war. And again, I like Trump is the idiot who started it at Netanyahu's urging. But let's not spare. I mean, we, we did, you know, Scott Bess and comes out and does economic D-Day. And then SENCOM starts being like, well, you hit a tanker. We're going to hit, you know, five tankers just like, and the writings are like, oh,

guess what? We can escalate too. Because my guess is that there's like IRGC guys who are

helping, you know, already in revolutionary hardcore guys who are like helping the hoothies plan all this

stuff, you know, Intel support training, whatever, missiles drones. Yeah, missiles drones. So they've now called our escalation and like 10X did, you know, because us blowing some tankers out of the water so that we can feel tough, you know, and Scott Bess and gets to have his press day on economic D-Day with, like, very little, you know, results. Well, this is material escalation, you know,

and I think it's the Iranian sending a message that, you know, we can keep doing this. So that's the

state of the war that's the state of the energy markets. And then the third thing I'd just say by wave introduction is this is putting in, you know, peril like the entire Saudi model, right? Because the Saudi model is, you know, we depend on all this oral revenue to finance this, you know, lavish kingdom and all these things, and then MBS likes to do and spread the money around enough to kind of keep the rest of population okay. And, and yet, you know, their own militaries,

some are of the paper tiger despite how much money they spend on it. They kind of need the US military to kind of maintain that bargain. And what did they just learn? Well, they learn that

They can't on their own prevent the hoothies from taking over large tracks of...

energy infrastructure that is existential to them. That when they call the United States, Trump is like, you know, well, the hoothies seem nice on the phone. I was wondering, like, who the hoothies called, you know? Yeah, did they like hit them on WhatsApp? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's got a weird signal, guys. You know, and, and so this could, you know, honestly, like, you know, it's the extreme and threat in the kingdom. I mean, it could literally threaten NBS. I mean, I'm not saying that

it's likely, but it's the fact that it's even possible is notable. And it's certainly, you should

encourage NBS. It will encourage NBS to not put all of these chips on the United States. I mean, I just say this, like, when Israel gets, you know, missiles thrown at it, like, you know, we rush, you know, every single missile defense batter we have, like, beyond not just bombing the hoothies, that clearly we're not providing the Saudis with, like, defensive weaponry to defend

even their most important oil infrastructure. If I, you know, it is so extreme that, like, I might

take a tinfoil hat on here for a second time. If you'll spare me, which is it, like, does Trump being so complacent, suggests he's, in some ways, leaving them no recourse, except to normalize with Israel to have, like, some kind of security list of Israel, just Trump, not mind the massive disruption to, you know, Saudi and emirati and Cateri oil and gas, because the US could in the long run replace it. I don't know, but like, this is so nonsensical to just kind of,

you know, look, I'm not for wars. I'm, you know, I don't want to go to war in Yemen.

But for Trump to kind of get in this deep and then just do nothing as he further loses this wars pretty remarkable. So imagine your him for a minute, like, you think you've built this

great relationship with Trump? You've given Jared a couple of billion dollars US weapons. You promised

to invest, well, how many times have you been to US and promised to, like, it's $2,000,000 every other time? You cut deals to build Trump towers and golf courses and Jetta and all these places. You gave Jared Kushner 5, 6, 7, 8 billion for his investment company or whatever. It was, then Trump starts to war with Iran over your objection. The IRGC fires missiles and drones at you in more country. The oil industry gets upended. Now you're getting attacked by the Houthis

and by these Shia back militias in Iraq. And Trump is like, and go fuck yourself. The Houthis are cool with us. I will, I will hear your tinfoil had version of why he might not be intervening.

The other one that it could be though is like, they would probably have to move an aircraft carrier

from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea to support major military operations against the Houthis. And like, we just don't really have the capacity to do that right? That's right. We've talked a lot about like munitions, shortages, and things like that. Well, this is when the rubber hits the road on that. Because like ultimately, we do have finite resources of this stuff. Whether it's aircraft carriers or missile defense batteries or what have you, and we've kind of

reached that state. You know, and the ratings know that. And so they can turn the dialogue. I mean, they've been smart. Like they, you know, after focusing on the Gulf member, they were focusing their missile attacks on Jordan, like, oh, you know, suddenly a new theater. And now their proxies are on the offense in Yemen. And they have, you know, one of the missile strikes on the pipeline came from Iraq, right? And the Iraqis, of course, say, well, we had nothing to do with it,

but it came from Iraq. And so we kept hearing under Biden and Trump, how, you know, we've destroyed all these Iranian proxies networks. Well, apparently not. And part of the thing you realize in I experienced this when it was in government is like, it doesn't take much to kind of replenish these guys, you know, like give them some drones. I mean, you know, the online pieces, like these guys have Toyota's and RPGs and drones. And like routed the Saudi back to Yemeni forces. Like,

it does not take much to reconstitute these proxy forces. And at a time when we're overstretched, and we can't fight the kind of eight front war that Israel started in the Middle East, Israel is notably sitting out there where after getting us to fight it, we just can't cover all that train. Yeah. And so according to a bunch of news reports and kind of analysis from experts, like this this lightning fast military offensive by the Houthis, it was not like some genius surprise attack.

This wasn't D-Day. It was at the Saudi back, Yemeni forces, the Yemeni government forces, which is the disaster. The CNN reported the Saudis, like they were put on alert,

maybe even three weeks ago, that something was coming, but they never moved air assets

in place to provide air support to these troops. This is a couple quotes from that CNN story then. The source that he contacted the United States Central Command and assured the U.N. was assured the U.S. was watching the situation closely and that Saudi air support was coming, but the air support never came. Quote, there was not one air strike throughout the day yesterday by the Saudi

Support forces.

Saudi-American fuck-up epic proportions. And then there's the kind of the bigger problem that the

GCC, the Gulf countries, they're approached to Yemen, is just totally fractured and amassed.

Yeah. The Saudis and the Emirates used to be aligned against the Houthis and Yemen, but then at the end of last year this UAE backed group called the Southern Traditional Coalition or STC, they attacked Saudi forces who were also part of this anti-Houthi coalition. The Saudi

kicked the Emirates out of Yemen, the STC disbanded, but the Saudis never backfilled them

apparently. So the Emirates would provide air support. The Saudis didn't backfill that. And then I guess CNN reported that some of the units were like 20% capacity of where they claimed to be. These Yemeni government military units because it was full of quote unquote ghost soldiers who were just like names on a list collecting a paycheck, but no human being was there. So who these at some smart stuff, they seem to have hacked into the Yemeni military calm system and like

use an AI deep fake of the general's voice to tell them all to retreat and they did. And that confused people. But a bunch of soldiers were just surrendered. They were selling their weapons on the side of the road and disbanding. So it's like there wasn't really a big will to fight among the government forces like there was from the Houthis. Yeah, because they're like mercenaries for higher or just people collecting salaries. And like the Houthis, whatever you think of them

have like a deep ideological, these people survived like a decade of war, you know. And they're not some like transplanted terrorist group. They're just people that live in Southern Yemen,

you know, they're not going anywhere. And look, I think a couple of things stand out like one is

what you just mentioned like, you know, Larry Wright was on and he was talking about how these new tools of cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence are going to start to manifest in terrorist actions or on the battlefield. And, you know, we had the Houthis using AI for intelligence purposes or disinformation purposes. We also have reports that the Houthis were using clawed to like figure out how to build weapons. Better target their missile targeting with their missiles.

And like make no mistake. This stuff is a leveller. And in the same way that you can build a really effective drone for not that much money, you know, you can use AI technologies to improve what you do. We tend to have frankly sometimes like a racist attitude that these people are going to figure it out. Like these people are fucking smart, you know. You don't have to like agree with them to know that the fact that they've been able to fight off this coalition demonstrates some entrepreneurial

capability. And that leads me to like the paradigm of what is the future of the Middle East year? Because, you know, the Abraham Accords is supposed to be the future. Well, a lot of pieces delivered by it. That's supposed to be peace. And it was also supposed to be this like unbeatable constellation of Gulf countries in Israel and Iran was going to be minimized and the Houthis are going to be defeated. If you judge the Abraham Accords against its own objectives, like forget

the fact that it wasn't going to bring peace to the Palestinians, look at where Iran is today. Look at where the Houthis are today. Like this, this kind of handshake deal between autocrats that frankly, you know, there's a house of cards feeling to the Middle East infrastructure as it is with the U.S. is kind of the force behind the house of cards.

Like the something is going to merge on the other side of this war. And I think that something

that emerges, Iran is going to have to be dealt with, not ignored or, you know, not cowering in the face of the Abraham Accords. And countries like Saudi Arabia are going to make their own deals with the Chinese, with the, with other countries because who wants to be holy relying on the United States anymore? Well, I also thought, what do you do with the Houthis? I mean,

before, like, look, before they were winning in this last offensive, they basically wanted to

control the airspace in Senna. They wanted to be able to fly in and out of that airspace in that airport and even fly to Iran. They wanted the Saudis to pay public sector employees in Houthi areas, share of you many oil revenues, and to get rid of some restrictions at the Houthi airport. Now they're going to want more. Obviously, they're going to up the cost and they're going to say, well, we control the Babam on-depth trade. And meanwhile, Saudi oil production

is at the lowest level in 36 years in August. Like Trump has been able to kind of spin and bullshit and market manipulating his way through this, but oil prices are well over $100 a barrel right now, and that is going to create a huge political cost in the midterms.

Yeah, I mean, the first of all, don't underestimate the Houthis. I mean, we did the sending

with the Taliban, you know, in the sense that there's this kind of corrupt government in Yemen, and then there's, you know, the Saudis and others have been bombing Yemenis without regard for civilian life. That kind of stuff, like, opens the door to the Houthis taking over the whole country, because, you know, people may not like them, but they also don't like the

Quote-unquote internationally recognized government either, you know, and so ...

a possibility. It's got on the energy prices thing. I just, at a certain point, the shortages are

what they are. If you take like Saudi oil at the market for two months, which is some estimates

are maybe September, and October on top of the straight-of-arm move disruptions. Like, there's no way to kind of paper this over where we've drawn down strategic reserves, like shortages are going to be what they are, and prices are going to go up, and places are going to have political instability. And, and I saw Trump did again, like, oh, we're, we're talking to the Iranians, did you see that? Like, and the markets, like, went for it again. Like, I just, there's something

astonishing about seeing that, like, the whole stock market might just be a confidence game, and not, I mean, I may be on the idiot for just coming out that late, but it is bizarre to watch, you know, bond yields as we've talked about are pricing this in, increasingly fuel prices are pricing it in. The stock market seems to kind of believe every piece of disinformation from Trump, they were on the precipice of either winning or concluding the war. Yeah, I mean, there's a

famous, maybe a pocketful quote that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So, yeah, that proves to be true. Before we take a quick break, I just want to thank all the folks out there who have become members of our friend of the podcast community. Your support is really the number one thing you can do to help us build an independent pro-democracy progressive media company. If you decide to become a paid subscriber of a friend of the pod, you can check out the details

by going to crooked.com/friends, but what you'll get is tons of bonus content, podsave America, bonus episodes, really fun shows like Termile Online, you get access to our sub-stack newsletters, and then you also get ad-free episodes of our favorite pods. You also get discounted tickets to crooked Khan, and lots lots more, it's a great deal, it really helps us. So, I'd love to do you consider it crooked.com/friends for more details. Positive world is brought to you by Quince.

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Speaking of Iran ban, so back in July, we covered these Iranian missile attac...

Jordan that killed three American troops. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that ahead

of that attack, Iran had gotten a chance on imagery of the base from what they described as

Chinese entities. The U.S. is not named who those entities are. We've stopped short of accusing the Chinese government. But the administration has previously accused a Chinese companies of supplying imagery to Iran. You've been going as far as to sanction them and the Chinese pushback card on that. The U.S. strikes have impacted Iran's ability to surveil the region, but the journal notes that Iran's targeting has gotten better over. The summer may be due to external

help from the Russians or the Chinese. The journal also reports that the U.S. officials were Iran is using Chinese imagery to track American naval assets in the region. Trump, of course, is our tough guy, strong man president. So, of course, he was eager to punch back at the Chinese Communist Party and stand up for our troops band when he was asked about this on Air Force One on Sunday, let's watch. We recently reported that Chinese entities may have

provided Iranians with satellite imagery of the air bases in Jordan. We do. They basically do it.

We're even going to raise our machine when he visits. It's like an old obvious point, but if any Democrat said that, like, it's boxing. It's career under light itself, I'm fire, if you heal it with, like, fucking murder somebody. It's just creepy. It's just so weak. It's a pathetic little bitch. And it's all because of the war he started. Of course, the Chinese are doing that. Of course, the Russians are doing that. We're at the understand what he's saying, but like,

number one, you should be trying to stop. People got killed because of this Americans, right?

But also, don't start the fucking war. Don't give the Chinese and the Russians this opportunity to drive us, you know, whatever you think of our president released, like, you know, having it ended by like the Iranians firing missiles at our peoples, not like how you want that to happen. But we keep hearing, I mean, we talked about this time, but like, you hear stuff that, again, we can't independently verify it. But like, you know, I hear stuff that they've targeted, like the

hotel room that the intelligence community uses in ex Gulf country. You know, like, clearly they have Russian and Chinese intelligence supporting them. There's probably pipelines of weapons, too, coming from, at least Russia, if not China, because that's what happens. And what's dangerous about it, and this is again, why you don't start dumb wars, which again, for all my criticisms of the Chinese Communist Party, of which there are many,

and we can spend time on that at another time, they don't start wars yet, at least, you know,

Taiwan sitting there. But the reality is that there's a globalization of these wars. It is really

concerning, right? Like the Ukraine wars, a kind of a global war. This war now, the Russians and Chinese are helping out, where you're like, like, it's us in Israel. Like, this is starting to

feel like one big war. Yeah. I think like that we do it, too, answer would make sense in the context

of Russia and Ukraine, because like we're helping the Ukrainians literally kill Russian service members every day. It just doesn't make sense there in the context of China. Like, we're not helping some other entity kill Chinese troops that I can think of, and like, look, I'm not looking for some, like, chingoistic, like, we're going to kill them back, you know, I for an eye bullshit from him, but it is, it's surprisingly weak in pathetic. It's obvious he's just trying not to upset the

Apple card anyway in advance of the Xi Jinping meeting. That's right. I mean, you're right. I mean, in the sense that he used spying as an example. Well, yeah, sure. Like, we spread on the Chinese spying. Yes. Like, giving the coordinates to kill US service members is like, materially different than like spying on people. And at a minimum, you would want your present to say, you know what? Like, I can't comment on like intelligence reports, but I'm certainly going

to be adding a really tough conversation with Xi Jinping when when I see him next, because like the number one priority, as Commander-in-Chief is the safety and security of our troops. Right. You know, although he doesn't seem to give a shit about that. He does not at all. A couple of more things on around. So the Pentagon's Inspector General has a report out on Operation Epic Fury for the period through just June 30th, about the cost. The top line numbers are the Department of War says the

cost of OEF. Can't believe they called it Epic Fury now. It's OEF for us anyway. 33.4 billion

as of June 29th. Like, obviously, it's exponentially more now to replace all this stuff. Yeah, and then the buildings and infrastructure damage are destroyed at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Katar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan. There was damage to diplomatic facilities, totaling $184 million in Iraq Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, in the UAE. Also been the New York Times, had a great story over the weekend about how the war has empowered hardliners in Iran who

Surprised surprise have then taken actions that either escalated or think thi...

It's a great piece. It's worth a read and a reminder that there are politics in Iran and we've made those politics way worse. And we have not come to rescue the protesters as Trump long ago said he would do. Yeah, none of the original rationale for the war even get excited. Even Epic Fury, remember how much Trump love that? You know, you know, uh, Epic Fury, I love the name.

But the only thing I'd say is that this is real money. Um, you know, sometimes like I've noticed

when Abdul al-Said and others are like talking about, I don't want to spend money overseas. I want to people like, but that's not that much money. It's a lot of fucking money. I mean, we've given

Israel over $20 billion since October 7th. We've spent, you know, the price tag of this war has

got to be north of 100 billion when you account what has been spent, what is going to be used to replenish what's been spent rebuilding all the whatever facilities we choose to rebuild. So like think of what you could do with that money. Think of the opportunity cost of Donald Trump choosing to spend your money if you're an American taxpayer that way. On the heels of Trillions of Dollars that post 9/11 wars, um, we got an exclusive first look at a new poll from the Institute

of Global Affairs at the Eurasia Group. They did a survey with Yugav about the Iran war. This survey was done in mid-August. Um, so before like the latest, I mean, we're even going to ask Jaria,

prices going up. There was some really interesting findings, Ben. So disapproval with the Iran

War has increased 13 points with independence went from 62% disapproval to 75% disapproval.

Uh, 73% of Republicans still approve of the war overall. But the number of Republicans who say they strongly approve of the war went down about 15 points. Um, 17% of Republicans think starting the war was a mistake. It only 49% of Republicans think the war is making the USA for nationally approval the war is only 34% uh, a plurality of Americans 43% say Iran is more likely to develop a nuclear weapon today than it was a year ago. Um, uh, huge majority of Democrats, 81% of Democrats, 59% of

independence think the U.S. made a mistake in attacking Iran even 17% of Republicans agree with that. Uh, 81% of Americans think the war is raised the cost of living, um, only 37% of Americans trust the administration to provide accurate information about the war. So I give like these are just a bad as it gets numbers wise. And again, this is before the latest prices spike. Yeah, these these

numbers are are are are even worse than they sound like for this reason. And first of all, I cannot

remember war ever in my life that pulled the 36%. Especially this quickly. I mean, even the Iraq war with like hanging on for a while there. Um, yeah, it's your point this quickly. But then I think if you go into the hood, like the independent number is both politically relevant because those tend to be swing voters and because those tend to be people that are making like a judgment based on what they're seeing. And so that's 75% is brutal because again, I'm not, I'm not a polar

coaster ghost, uh, Tommy, but I do know that because of the intense partisanship in this country, the Republican number is inflated. Right. You know, the, the, the Republicans get a call. There's a certain percentage of Republicans, which is, you know, more than 50% that it literally like, I mean, I love the people who's, you know, the remaining 19% who don't say that it's, cause prices to go up, you know, those people filled their, those are literally people that, it's a quote Trump,

like you could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue. And they, so you have to account for the fact that

like the Republican number is inflating what are already horrific numbers because there are people that probably don't like the wrong word, but they're just going to say they support whatever Trump's doing. Yeah, they support their teams up too. Yeah. And so that matters here too. I, it's also a message to the Democratic Party and I've been banging this drum. We both have are the Democrats against the war? Yeah. Do you really feel that in, um, like, do you,

do you, do you have a sense that, that Chuck Schumer hacking Jeffries, like, or like, it's weird to me that the war is not more prominent in the Democratic Party's messaging. Yeah. I mean, like, remember the early days when, for Trump launched it, like, there were some, a lot of Democrats on the fence. There were a lot of people who do the kind of lip service to like, while I don't like this regime and blah, blah, they would like oppose it for some legalistic

reason. Like, yeah, the outcome has been a disaster. Yeah. A disaster. Congress is again behind the American people. It is okay. It is okay to just be an anti war part. And by the way, I would imagine these numbers apply to the U.S. getting back involved against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. I'm sure that's part of why Trump didn't do that, right? I mean, maybe the last tin for a hat thing is just more war bombing might, you know, he's getting told that this

pulls horribly. Again, the message to the Democratic Party is just be a full-on anti war party, like, like, enough of the throat clearing. And we're talking about a party that just put Jared Moschitz and charred to the Middle East subcommittee in the Foreign Affairs Committee. And

Man who said he agrees with Lindsey Graham, you know, may soul rest wherever ...

they round more. Like, can we just get out of this defensive crowd or this, you know, pro-Israel, whatever, whatever the thing is because it's more than one thing that caused the Democrats to not come out in a full-throated way against us. It's bad policy and bad politics. Yeah. There's just no reason to be in for this. All right, but let's switch gears. We got a lot of Trump in the show today. And we don't usually do that, but there was just so much

out there. It was like, we have to talk about these stories. Trump was in Ireland over the weekend. He was there to attend a golf tournament at his Irish golf course, because why shouldn't taxpayers, like us, foot the bill for that, right? Yeah. In the process, though, he managed to roll a grenade into Northern Ireland politics in a way that was so stupid and so reckless that it would be like the defining foreign policy gap of any other presidency. Yeah. But like it

almost didn't get noticed here. So we really wanted to talk about it. So to prepare for this section then, I called a journalist named Peter Kelly. We met a couple of times including the DNC in 2024. He's written for the Irish Examiner USA. Great Irish name. And the Irish Australian guy. Yeah. Great guy. And he was on the scene for this mess over in Ireland. So on

Saturday, Trump met with the T-shock Michele Martin. That's their prime minister. I think what there

wasn't supposed to be like a press scrum and all of a sudden they just called the press in for

this impromptu press conference. So the government idea, it's never a good idea. So Trump

in the T-shock, they do these kind of, they're pro-forma statements about whatever. And then they take questions. The 11th question, and they all went to Trump, was about Irish unity, you love a question. That is where Trump said this. Let's watch. Now, the UK, well, I'm something we say, but I think it would be a great thing. I mean, how can it be bad? It just seems to me that we have Northern Ireland, and yeah, Ireland,

and it would seem to me that one of the natural little times is what I'm together with. And I have had so much support on it. And then they ask me about Scotland, that one I want to talk about. Yes, I'll see that for another day.

There's analysis basically, both of Ireland and the name. Is he gonna do Wales next?

You know, like, so if you look in the first moment, you can see the T-shock, Michelle Martin, like, kind of die inside. And so what happens there is, like, what Trump said explicitly goes against the terms of the good Friday agreement, which is one of the most successful bits of U.S. diplomacy in a generation, because it ended, you know, decades of bloody sectarian and national, nationalist conflict, kill like 3700 people. But it's also an extremely

fragile and volatile piece that requires delicate power sharing, right? And that is what he just kind of like kicks in that. And to be clear, Trump is upending casually at a press avail about his golf course. Decades of U.S. policy for no reason, because the U.S. position is that the U.S. is neither in favor of a United Ireland nor opposed to the idea. Yeah, the good Friday

agreement says that Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom as long as that's what

a majority in Northern Ireland wants. Andy Burnham, the new Prime Minister of the U.K., just said he is not aware of majority support for unification. And that there will be no referendum that referendum is off the table. This is like a settled issue, polling shows majority support for the Unionist position or the status quo. So, like, what all Trump is doing in practice there is, again, like, rolling this political grenade into the Northern Ireland government where there's

a power sharing agreement between the Unionists and the Nationalists who are like literally run by two ministers who are the daughters of like paramilitaries on either side. It's like a daughter of an IRA guy and a daughter of a gunrunner for the Unionist. Yeah. And now the fucking T-shock has to go meet with Annie Burnham. I think later this week and get asked all about this again. So it's like, it's just a political disaster for everyone that in the like the real downside case could reopen a deadly

sectarian conflict. Everything about this is remarkable and it's like pointlessness. I mean,

first of all, I just checked Trump's approval rating Ireland is 20%. Right? 20% because, well, I love the

Irish. I really love the Irish more than anybody. And so, what's he going over there in the first place?

It's just a pain in every's ass. It's a pain to host them, right? Just because he's basically trying to create an advertisement for his golf course. Then he just kind of casually sticks his foot into like one of the thornyest problems and one of the only problems that were able to help solve in my lifetime. Which, because again, whatever you think about, let's say you are a, you know, pro United Ireland. This is actually like, this is not good for anyone, right? I mean, if you're a

Unionist, you're pissed.

like this is not the way to do that. It shouldn't, it's not going to be like, Trump said it. Let's do it. Well, actually, it undermines them in a way, right? Because like, oh, shit, Trump's weren't, maybe it's not a good idea. And also just to make your point, like the real lies that stake here. Like, I remember I used to go to the meeting every year, Obama and St. Patrick say,

it would always meet with the two chief ministers of Northern Ireland. And it was fucking tense,

man. Like, you go to Belfast or still piece walls or still like divided communities. You know, if there's a sense that even some of the people that might not favor having a referendum, like the reason they don't, even they might personally like think, oh, you know, maybe someday Ireland unified, but they just don't want to go through that shit again. They don't want to go through violence again. They don't want to their war. Like, let's, you know, this is fine. We have some autonomy.

We have like an Irish identity within the eye kingdom, Brexit kind of strain this a little bit. It's just like walking up to a hornet's nest and kicking it as hard as you can with no, with no purpose in doing that other than just like sharing your opinion as if you're like an independent commentator, not the President of the United States. I will say by one of the theories in this and

this is not even a tinfoil hat. I, I also think Trump like fucking he hates Europeans. He seems to

not like Brits. Like he, like the, the malevolence may just be like, oh, I'll just come over here and create a huge problem for any Burnham in the T-shock and then I'll leave. Well, yeah, I mean, apparently in Ireland, the questions whether he was trying to do this to like get Irish

Catholic voters to support him in the midterms. I think that's giving him too much. That's right.

Yeah. And then he's just like a fucking reckless idiot. He's even that clip. Like, again, it seems like he just thinks they're both named Ireland, so they should go together. Like, that's the depth of his analysis. And interestingly, Ben, like, so Shinfane, the, the nationally. He doesn't even know what religion the unionist are. And he tries to Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, the Shinfane is boycotted the White House St. Patrick's Day event for the last couple

years because of Gaza. Um, but so it, but also apparently in a recent one of the, the St. Patty's Day events, Trump repeatedly named checked the head of the unionist party, who, which are like very right wing, very conservative, very pro Trump. So next year, after this bullshit, you could imagine like the unionist party boycotting the White House St. Patty's Day event and then like the nationalist are attending. But like to your point about him, the Europe, him hating Europe,

like even Nigel Farage was like, no, that's a bad idea. Yeah, I'm sure. And also like some of this to your point about Trump's like lack of, you know, understand, because this is not some due to Jitsu for the Irish Catholic. I mean, this is a man that literally picked a fight with

the Pope, right? Um, I'm not sure he's singing all these things through. Um, but the, the reality is

like, Trump is also this guy who like, a lot of his views were kind of frozen in time and like the 80s, you know, I grew up in New York and like the 80s and 90s. Like that's when like the IRA was like, you know, running guns at a statin island. And you know, like New York for public and members of

Congress from like, like, long islands supporting them. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I honestly think Trump

may not even know that the good Friday could happen. Yeah, that's a good point. Or something what they kind of constructive and how fragile it is and how it's all this kind of complicated power sharing and and negotiated autonomy. Like, you know, he just doesn't care about that. Like, you know, he'll probably offer to send Jared and Woodcoff to Northern Ireland. Oh, yeah. Good. Anything goes sad. Good. Good. Trump tower bell fast. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

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live at joinbuilt.com/world. That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com/world. Use our links so they know we sent you. Speaking of which, Ben, a griffed miss came early for everybody because there's two like big long magazine features about the Trump family's corruption. Let's start with pro-publica's piece about Donald Trump Jr's wedding. These are both bangers. It's

incredible. We're going to talk about Dexter Philips' New York New Yorker piece. So back in

May, Donnie Jr. fans might remember that he had a three day wedding to the new love of his life

in the Bahamas. There was a small wedding. It was like 50 people, but one attendee was a Russian oligarch named Umar Kremlev, who was close to Vladimir Putin in the head of the International Boxing Association. Totally normal. Not only did Kremlev attend, but he footed part of the bill. Pro-publica says he paid to rent out an island where the reception was held. Has anyone done this? For a fireworks display, the island reportedly costs about $100,000

the night. The fireworks displays are normally like 70 grand. I think the all-an estimate was like a couple hundred thousand dollars paid for by some IBA International Boxing Association affiliated entity. Um, the International Boxing Association is financed by Gazprom, the big Russian state-owned energy behemoth. According to Pro-publica in the weeks before the wedding, Kremlev, this oligarch was in China with Putin as part of the delegation and also recently got bestowed with the order

of friendship state honor. And then lastly, Kremlev's wife's sister runs an organization called Healthy Fatherland that is sanctioned in Ukraine for its role in Russia's abduction of Ukrainian kids, like the most evil part of an evil war. Um, and so they run the story. Incredibly after it comes out, Don Jr's wife pretty much just confirms it all as true one

Instagram. She wrote our dear friend, Umar, very generously hosted two incredible nights of celebrations

for us after our wedding. It was an extraordinarily generous wedding gift from my friend at

something for which we were in remain incredibly grateful. I think she was trying to say

aha, the story was wrong because it said we'd be paid for our wedding. What they paid for was after the wedding. Normally, you kind of buck at the wedding weekend as one thing. Um, but that's just being. But then do think one, first of all, my like initial reaction was like Jesus Christ, these people are gifters. But the more serious point is like if Putin were to try to buy influence with Don Jr, this is how you do it. Yeah. You have this like carve out like sports association

funded by Gazprom to like make a runnison. This is like the most obvious like Russian intel op I've ever seen. That's right because the two things that jumped out to me like first of all what's his name, Umar. Umar is I'm just going to go out on a limb Tommy and you can, if you think I'm being impolite, you can call me out. I don't think this is a man that just has a sincere appreciation for Don Jr's personality guessing like an organic friendship that just evolved over

two guys who happen to meet each other from other side of the world and then decided to rent nylon form like these people, if you know anything about other Russian system works, like if they make an investment in a person like this, they expect a return on the investment. They're not doing this out of sentimentality. They're not doing it because in the same way that the Saudis don't think that Jared Kushner is a particularly ingenious investor like that's an investment that's something

now turns out they didn't get the return. They wanted this is an investment and ongoing investment by the Russians in the Trump family. That leads me to my second point, which is it the US media mainstream media, whatever we're going to call it, um, did they crank the Russia gate stuff up like way high that they did in the sense that they that that was like all they covered for a couple years, right? But Trump is so thoroughly, you know, called this a hoax and kind of made any

insinuation of his own contacts and potentially compromised nature of his relationship with Russia seems so kind of resistance 1.0 and so kind of Trump derangement syndrome that like people actually don't talk about it that much anymore and yet it is just like staring you in the face that the

Russians have been making like a very long term investment in Trump and his f...

wonder like what do they want in return for that and what are they getting in return for that, right? And and I know it's just staring at us at some point someone will come back and put this all

together and write it up, but the reality is, you know, if we'll allow ourselves to do this for

two times today, which is breaking our rule, if like a Russian oligarch was paying for like

Malia Obama's wedding, you know, in the Bahamas, I think there'd be some questions about that.

Guess I'm going to Fox News coverage. And meanwhile, this will be like a passing story. You know, I hate this. I hate that we're like back in 2017, P tape, our conversation, but it is bonkers. Like, Don Geter didn't know this guy for every, they met a couple of years ago, you know, it's like this is just so clearly an effort to funnel money to this family and by access. And also, it comes at a time when Don Geter isn't just the dumbfuck son of the president.

He's a guy who's like investing in or advisor to drone companies like, you know, the rare

earths, they're getting huge Pentagon loans, right? Like, he's more deeply tied into this

administration. He may try to inherit the Trump political dynasty. Yes, like he may either run for president or become some, you know, Trump media mogul who's endorsing candidates. I mean,

and this was, again, the dumb thing about the Russia investigation was you didn't need there to be

a P tape or some smoking gun of like, like, collusion for this to still be wrong, you know, and then there was a smoking gun, which was Donald Trump Jr. meeting with this like watching and connected. Don Jr. Dart, I'm Hillary. Don Jr. is just a walking smoking gun. Yeah, he's thing. So, okay, that was one story. Then there was this great in your case by Dexter Philkins on Jared Kushner and corruption in diplomacy. The, the detailed that jumped out in me,

Ben, was we've talked about Crown Prince Muhammad and Sawman of Saudi Arabia before early in the show, frankly. In 2017, he deposed his cousin, Muhammad and Naif, who was seen as a very credible professional interlocutor that all the U.S. intelligence agencies knew and like working with and nobody knew who MBS was. Apparently MBS called Jared Kushner to tell him in advance that he was

going to depose his cousin. That call was secretly recorded where Kushner says, yeah, everybody's on

board with this except for the U.S. intelligence agency is like, go for it. So that's one big detail.

And the second detail is Philkins got his hands on this classified intelligence report from a European

intelligence agency that says Trump has been discussing economic deals with the Russians, including stuff like reopening Nord Stream 2, like huge ticket items, like opening oil fields to X on these are not like golf courses. And it like it names people that could participate in the deal that are including Trump, Steve Wittkov, Jared Kushner, Richard Gernel, Gentry Beach, this friend of Don Jr's. And so it's just like, it's another staggering story about corruption,

the Wall Street Journal has an article about the Trump organization about to announce a Trump tower in Tbilisi in Georgia, the country, where the ruling party Georgia Dream is like cracking down in the sense they didn't get in close from Moscow. So like, there's just so much smoke here. You know, it's interesting about this is, and I'll, I talked to Dexter Philkins when he was setting out on this, you know, and I was not the source of any of this stuff because I didn't

know about any of this stuff. But part of what's interesting is, you and I've been talking about this stuff for her, talk eight years, you know. And it's all like, it's kind of a parent, what's happening? And what is, you know, it's a parent that Jared is in Bebbit the Saudis, it's a parent that the Russians want the Trump people to kind of put their thumb on the scale and places like Georgia where they're trying to, you know, expand influence if not kind of swallowed up. And what's

just striking is, like, whenever anybody actually does get the goods, it's actually even worse than you think. You know, like, like, because it's not even just like a, you know, like, just take the Saudi piece. It's not even just like a subtle quid pro quo. It's literally like Jared Kushner being like, yeah, crack down on your family. You know, I mean, I was in the White House, like the Mohammed bin Nayah thing, I mean, he was the Crown Prince. And he has the deputy Crown Prince, like this is, this is

kind of a mini internal coup that took place. And we have a guy literally, not only green lighting that from, from the White House chair was a White House employee at that time, a senior advisor. And then getting millions of dollars on the back end, I mean, this is, this just demonstrates, like there's been this kind of collapse of investigative journalism as farmed euros of clothes and as the media has become, what it's become. But man, like, if you just, if you get a good

dog and reporter like Dexter Filkins, what you find is it all this stuff is even worse than, like,

You know, like, we, you know, surmise.

what to read, what, you know, the New Yorker, Republican, you know, the Guardian does work like this,

you know, drop site does it in the Middle East. Like, there are the people that are still doing investigative journalism or people that do demand like your attention, because, you know, frankly, if we were living in a different era, we would know more of this stuff. But thankfully, there's still people out there connecting dots. Yeah, it's, it's great reporting and really hard work, which is why a lot of people don't do it because it's time and labor intensive. Dexter also

reported out, you know, others have reported on this as well, that when Jared left the White House, and he started affinity partners, his investment company, he went to the Saudis, you know, kind of hat in hand to ask for a $2 billion investment. And like, all the professionals

in the Saudi kind of sovereign wealth fund, we're like, no way, this guy has never invested before,

like, what are we thinking? And then MBS overrule them and gave him $2 billion. I think it's turned

into many, many billion dollars more. Yeah. As Jared has re-entered this sort of, like, hybrid quasi governmental role, where he's not an officially an employee, so he doesn't have to file disclosure forms about his wealth, for example, but he still has all this influence. But his management fee, the management fee that affinity charges is like 1.25%, which means he was making what $2,530 million off the Saudis alone per year. And I think they have in the story that

for the first three years, affinity didn't make any investments. Yeah. So they were just charging the Saudis to do nothing. Nothing. Yeah. And how is that not a bribe or a kickback? Well, that's the thing, because that was the other thing I was going to say, which is if and when the Democrats take back power, like all this stuff, like needs to be illegal. You know, because what's remarkable is it's not, it's grotesque. I think what people used to count on is it, like, politically it would be

a killer for the president's son-in-law to, like, like, billions of dollars. Yeah. But in a world of

that chain, and I'll tell you the other things happening to be self-critical of like, you know,

our party. And is it, there's a lot of this stuff at smaller scale. You know, there's a lot of people that serve in government. And then they kind of, they start a fund in the golf or they, you know, they get on a board that, like, is selling a lot of things to the golf. And the kind of wink wink is it, oh, those people are probably going to go back into the U.S. government at some point. So we're going to invest in them. Like, all this, we have to enter a period of, like,

radical anti-corruption and transparency after this to cleanse ourselves. Because Jared is, like, the most extreme and damaging version of it. But there's more of it underneath the surface, too. And,

like, this should be a priority for the net. I mean, if you want to restore public confidence in the

government, because people know this intuitively, like, you don't need to, like, follow farm policy to kind of feel like everything's for sale. Yep. I would love to know what the Russian oligarch, sovereign wealth fund guy was doing in Miami with, uh, cherry-cussion people, coffee, great thing to examine. Uh, last or event. So we wanted to touch on some developments in the war between Russian Ukraine. A Russian drone struck a train at a train station that's about a mile from Ukraine's border

with Poland. Um, this happens obviously all the time. But what makes this incident remarkable was that, uh, so-called VIP train had just passed through this station. A VIP train is a train that the Ukrainian government runs that's full of dignitaries or whatever VIPs are visiting. Um, I think a couple VIP trains went through the area. Uh, they went through a little earlier than had been anticipated. There's not like a schedule for them, obviously, but like, you know, people at the, you know,

stations like no one are coming and going to do traffic control. Um, and so the train, the VIP trains go through the station and then shortly after Russia hits over the drone. And so one of those trains was carrying the national security advisors of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. There were one of them was also carrying a former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a former CIA agent. Just on holiday there. Dave Petraeus was on a train that came through

soon after. I think they were all there for they must have been some sort of security conference or

something. Um, former CIA director, Dave Petraeus was on another train and just said that. Um, so it is, it's possible if not likely that the Russian military was actually targeting those dignitaries. We don't know that, but it's quite a coincidence. Um, and it comes as Russia is getting more and more aggressive with NATO countries. We've talked about this on past episodes, but the Germans blame Russia for a drone attack at a Leipzig airport back in August. Estonia is investigating

Russia for us and attacks. They were all like similar like arson or explosions in Finland, Bulgaria, and Italy. I heard a report this morning about a train derailing in France. It's being investigated as possible. Um, Russian sabotage. Now, you don't want to start seeing Russia behind every corner or every incident. Um, but there is a lot of smoke here. Um, and so I think it again is worth just hearing how the Trump administration is reacting to these attacks on NATO allies. And then

This clip of Jared Kushner just kind of like talking about the status of the ...

Russia and Ukraine at the moment. Let's watch. Look, I think right now, from the Ukraine perspective,

I mean, President Putin's laid out his line of what he wants to achieve if Ukraine, you know,

wanted to withdraw to that line, then obviously, you know, we have the rest of the deal set it up up and put together a Ukraine right now does not want to do that. So just to summarize, Ben, Ukraine has to give Putin, quote, what he wants to achieve, and then it'll be all over. Which is like their own territory where there are people with the faith of their territory.

They currently control. I mean, first of all, I can't imagine that Russians aren't aware of

like who's on these trains. Like they have a pretty good intelligence service, you know, they're clearly monitoring the, you know, this. So whether this was like a warning shot, whether it was a even worse, like they tried something and missed, you know, I just think we have to understand that this is going to continue to escalate as things go on as Ukrainians get more aggressive inside of Russia. And the fact that Kushner is like, oh, yeah,

well, we'd, we'd have this solved if the Ukrainian just surrendered. That's his response. This is like,

tells you what kind of message is that sent to Putin about what the response would be if like

a bunch of European national advisers or VIPs get blown up on a train. In addition to that, I mean, I saw Trump was blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure for the high

price of diesel, which is not the reason. It's a war with Iran. The diesel is really expensive. But again,

like they're all just blaming Ukrainian for stuff. And then, you know, Europe is they're discussing whether to have a public debate about whether these gray zone attacks or hybrid attacks from Russia would trigger an article five response from NATO, but they're worried that like having that conversation in public would actually hurt not help because Trump is not likely to back them. So we'll make them look weaker. And what are they going to do? Yeah, one of the things they're talking

about it, the bare minimum that they're debating apparently is whether to kind of like bring forward their missile defense infrastructure right to the border. So that it could engage with drones and missiles that are targeting stations like this that are just across into Ukrainian territory,

because I think current policy is to only engage when those, you know, objects pass into NATO airspace.

But it's like, okay, so we're just going to let Putin fire at your fucking staffers because they're a mile over the border from Poland. Yeah. And then all this feels just like, you know, to connect everything we talked about from the, what happened in Yemen, I mean, everything just feels like it's escalating, you know, and, and down Trump is the president states and he's going to golf courses and reopening the troubles, you know, you know, you know,

we got two more years of this together. Two more years, my friend. Okay, we are going to take a quick break, but when we come back, you're going to hear my conversation with Homsachadri, we talk about all the conversation about AI risk, what the CEOs of these companies are doing, what the Trump administration is or isn't doing, what Congress should be doing. So stick around for that. Potsay of the world is brought to you by trees.com. You've heard me talk about them as fast

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My guest today is Hamza Sharadri. He is the AI and National Security Lead at the Future of Life

Institute and someone I've talked to author record rod background a bunch of times to try

to get smarter on this stuff. Hamza, great to talk to you. Thanks for having me, Dummy.

First of all, he evokes the quick explanation of what the future of life institute does because

it's an awesome name for an organization, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what you guys work on. I thought the same thing when I applied. The future of life institute is the oldest and largest AI policy think tank in the United States. It's been around for 12 years now. We work on a bunch of issues. So I have staff working on AI National Security Policy. We have folks working on child safety. We have folks working on labor protections. We have folks working on liability. And then we have

folks staffing our international deems, working on global governance, track dues with international partners. So anything to do with AI policy chances are feralizing getting with it. Folks might have heard that there's this big conference in DC this week happening right now, actually that includes Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon, US of the ones who brought that together. So very interesting politics, very interesting moment to talk about artificial intelligence with you.

So it's been a while we can AI news. The short version of what happened is this AI researcher at Anthropoc resigned from the company and he tweeted quote, "The people building AI are nicely believed that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. A bunch of other AI employees at Anthropoc in other places waited on Twitter and quotes we did him and agreed, kicked up a massive amount of views and interest in this tweet in this conversation.

That led the Anthropoc CEO Dario Amadei to write this long essay proposing some ideas for regulate AI. Open AI CEO Sam Altman weighed in and said, "Yeah, I think this is a good idea or these parts of it are." Elon Musk said, "Yeah, we kind of agree in principle too." So let's just start there. Can you describe what Dario Amadei proposed in his essay just for the substance of it? Of course, so Dario's central argument is that the models are developing

do quickly and we're caught in a race dynamic. So we need to base the frontier. Base is an interesting word. I think what they mean is slow down because there's two kinds of bases. You either speed up or you slow down and he's talking about one kind of base. He says that we need to do three things to make sure these models are developed in the right way to make sure that don't have the existential and catastrophic risk he's claimed.

The first is you need to have these embedded evaluators. So scientists and technical

researchers from the outside staffing the companies to make sure that they can conduct safety testing

and audits of these systems before they're deployed. The second and this is an increasing order

of difficulty is what he calls democratic coordination. So we need to work with the U.S. government but also European and East Asian governments to make sure that we have an international governance architecture backed by democracies. And then finally he has something called global coordination and what he's essentially talking about there is China. And he's saying that all of these conversations that we're having domestically need to be had with the Chinese internationally.

And he is much more concerned about things like, for example, not having a pause in the limit. But for now he's concerned about easy wins. So for example, a joint declaration to make sure that systems can develop dangerous biological weapons, for example. It's worth noting that Sam Altman kind of weighed in and said, yeah, he approved with part of this plan but not all that basically step one, which was these embedded evaluators within the

company. He didn't weigh in on step two or three, which I guess in fairness to him would require the U.S. government to take those steps. So it's not like Sam Altman can do that on his own. But you're not chatting. You said that even Dario's plan had a few problems in your view. Can you walk me through those or walk the audience through those? So first, before we get into any specific flow of a Dario's plans, I just want to point out

the world's most dangerous cognitive dissonance, which is every single one of these executive leaders has consistently talked about AI potentially extinguishing humanity. And then have staff lobbyists in each of these companies to make sure that folks roll up to Congress or to state legislatures, they're blocking the same bills that could stop that risk from happening in the first place.

And I think that's just a key point that we have to communicate every single time.

What is the problem of Dario's plan? For a plan that's called basing the frontier, there is no mechanism to paste a frontier. So you could have all the embedded evaluators in the companies that you want. But you could just politely decline their recommendation. And what we fundamentally need is some kind of government-gating or approval system, because these embedded evaluators could easily say this model has too high of a buyer risk or this model has too high of a cyber risk.

But in the absence of any authority to actually do something about it, they're still going to be the same place that we were six months ago. The second problem with Dario's thesis, and this is going to be a fundamental problem with anything that is being put out from that

perspective, is there will always be some tension between go, slower, and what to do with China.

Dario's answer there is for us to set up a regime of export controls to make ...

we can slow them down as much as possible. I think that's a hard thing to do over the long-term,

considering how quickly the Chinese are in digitizing their compute capacity. And frankly,

we're in a geopolitical environment at the moment where the Chinese are getting as many chips as they need from the Americans. Yeah, and it seems like the chipmakers just want to increase their output as much as humanly possible to make as much money as humanly possible. And that's all they really care about. One recent AI safety incident that freaked out a lot of people in got global tension was this hugging phase hack. Can you tell listeners what happened there and why this was viewed

by a lot of people in the AI community as a paradigm shift? Opening I was testing a model and a model, a foundation model is a set of model weights. And then on top of that, you can deploy agents using that model. So, opening I decides that we're going to run this model through a cyber benchmark

called exploit gym. It's basically a captured the flag. It's a very classic software and cyber

security benchmark. So, it deploys, we don't have an official number, but my guess is tens of thousands of agents to independently capture this flag within this benchmark. Something like 1200 of those agents captured that flag within the first four to five hours of the actual exercise. And then deploy an inter company hack to make sure that there's no evidence of them cheating. So, first what they do is that they hack into OpenAI's infrastructure to make sure that they can

communicate with each other, which to do by is actually having file names and directory names as codes for messages. Second, they're able to access the internet, which they explicitly were not allowed to do. Third, as part of this effort, they hack into an external company, a company mind you that's a leading tech company with good cyber security called hugging phase. All in an effort to figure out if hugging phase has an association with the checker of their exam to make

sure that their cheating isn't God. After opening I catch this, these agents and attempt to hack opening I again and resist those efforts and then eventually the agents are shut down. I don't think I have to explain why this terrified people inside and outside the AI community, but that's the summary. It also is part of this process, not one of those agents ever communicated at least in a way that we can see, hey, maybe we should tell a human being about this or hey, this seems to be in violation

of the law, maybe we shouldn't do this. Maybe that's a weird standard or way to think about it, because these aren't like individual agents, they're kind of like all copies of the same model right, but at no point we're any of them like hey let's pump the brakes, we're doing something wrong, correct? That's almost right. So in this cluster of 1200 agents, they were a couple of agents who said, should we check with the human being about hacking into the company? A couple of over 10 years

something exactly exactly exactly. Now remember that the whole point of the hack in the first place

is to hide their cheating. So these two agents effectively get overwritten by middle management and the executive agents and they basically bought not to tell the human beings in this case. That was one big security threat. Then last week, and Thropic released a threatened intelligence report about all the misuse of Claude over the last year. The part of that report that scared the hell out of me was they wrote up an attempt to use Claude their AI model to develop

biological weapons. I'd love for you to talk about why the bio threat is so uniquely dangerous to humanity. And then also let me know if there's anything else in that anthropic report that you think is worth highlighting. The bio threat is by definition more dangerous for anyone who's lived through COVID. Think about the most dangerous cyber attack that you've seen in this towards long as you've

lived and then compare it to the coronavirus pandemic. The reality is that pathogens and

phages can kill just a lot more people than the worst cyber weapons can in the vast majority of cases. Now what's happening with AI is that there's developments happening both inside and outside the space which are making the bio threat more likely. So outside this space, what we're developing are what they work all these AI biological design tools. So they're not large language models, but they have the functioning of large language models narrowly focused on designing new

genetic sequences. And these things are getting better at designing sequences that nature has never made before. Second, once you have the sequence, you actually need to do the humble work of

creating physical material out of it. And that's what we call synthesizing a sequence.

It used to be the case that there were only a handful of companies that would synthesize a sequence to allow you to actually have a pathogen. Now we have the so-called bench stops synthesizers. Some of them are in high schools. They're just at cheap. So we're both increasing and democratizing the ability to sequence the most dangerous data while also developing the ability to synthesize these agents. Enter large language models who can provide you explicit and detailed instructions

On exactly how to use these AI biological design tools.

bdTs. And they can provide you instructions on how you can fake your credentials and make sure that you can get the correct information from these synthesizers. Even if you don't have a bench stops synthesizer on you, the good thing about the AI bio threat so far is that there's a so-called digital to physical barrier. Unlike cyber, where everything happens within the interwebs. In the bio case, you still need to enter the physical world. And that's where there's space for

enforcement. The vast majority of DNS synthesizers still continue to vet their orders. So it's so-called no-your-order and no-your-customary requirements. But we're getting to a point where the models will just get good enough to, for example, do a synthesizer. And in other words,

overcome the digital to physical barrier. The question then becomes how bad can that get?

And the answer is a lot worse than COVID. So because these biological design tools can

create sequences that we've never seen before, you could have something that has the fatality of the avian flu. So something like 40% say. And has the virality of the most viral pathogen you see in swine flu, for example. That could kill half of the United States, and that could kill billions of people. So that's the world we're entering over the coming years. And what the AI proponents will say is, well, yes, but we'll also use AI to develop

cures to diseases like that. But I think what people need to understand is, the timeline for creating you know, some sort of cure for a disease or a vaccine or what have you is just going to be way way behind the timeline for someone who's creating the virus in the first place, right? You just like talk about the gap there and how far behind we would probably be. Think of how badly we're doing it for the easy case, which is cyber.

The bet here over the past six months was, why don't we give the model to defenders first?

And once the defenders have it, they can use the model to patch vulnerabilities, and it's deployed to the public. So even if offenders have it, they will still be an advantage. Clearly, that hasn't worked out over the last six months. A handful of companies barely got access to these models for their cyber defense. And that doesn't even include the

vast majority of critical infrastructure providers who would need it. Now, layer on top of that,

your point, which is even in the presence of a good trusted access program, which we don't currently have, you still need to after having the information on how to make a prophylactic or a vaccine actually designed it. In the COVID case, for example, we had the actual formula within four weeks after the virus escape Wuhan. But then we needed something like nine months to make sure that we could actually synthesize and deploy a vaccine. In cases where these potential biological weapons

could kill millions, maybe hundreds of millions of people, I think that's an intolerable balance to have. And it's not just me saying it. We put out a survey of national security experts with the Institute for Security and Technology last week. Think of your former four stars, your former agency leads, your former subject matter experts, and these folks overwhelmingly felt that biology would be off-ence dominant. In other words, it would give a lot more advantage

to attackers rather than defenders. Before we move on, was there anything else in that

enthropic threat intelligence report that particularly jumped out of you or unnerved you?

I think the fundamental thing that unnerves me, and maybe just taking a step back, this is the first dual-use technology of national security concern being built outside the government. Like, you could do internet, you could do GPS, you could do nuclear energy, this is legitimate, you could do the microvisory, this is legitimately the first technology that's being built outside government. So when I read reports like these, there's the report, but then I'm also thinking,

do they have enough people who can stop these things on the inside? The reality is that fundamentally

each section of the report, whether you're focused on cyber or nuclear risk or sea burn or bio, is backed up by a handful of people working at these companies trying to stop these threats. When we have tens of thousands of people in the federal government who are charged with this, so when I read reports like these, the reason I'm scared is not because of what they say, it's that they're layered on top of an architecture of a handful of people who are supposed to stop

all of this. I think this is why people are so frustrated at the fact that the U.S. government is just completely asleep at the switch when it comes to artificial intelligence that is true for the federal government and the Trump administration who is too busy taking checks from the CEO's to regulate them that goes for Congress, which can't get exact together to do anything these days. If you can wave a magic wand and force Congress to act, what would you have them do

immediately? And then similarly, like is there anything you'd like to see come out of the Trump administration in the form of an executive order or even just some sort of bilateral agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping when he is when he visits in September? So there's three ingredients we need from Congress and they're like fairly straightforward. I think there'll be intuitive to most folks. The first one is check the models

Before you internally deploy them and externally deploy them.

When you release this model to the public or to enterprise defenders, for example,

so you should check the model if it can make by-weapons or cyber weapons.

But now there's also a concern with internal deployment. So in the hugging phase incident, what happened was that after the model was developed, it was internally deployed to researchers in the company who was running this cyber e-val which elected the hack of the company. So we need gates set up by the government where folks with actual clearances are making determinations with the companies as we do with many national security technologies saying this is a step at which

you can internally deploy to a company and this is when you can do it externally. Second, we need

vessel grow protections. Someone as we're speaking could have an o-should moment at the companies and they have no mechanism clearly to report this to the government. They definitely don't have the protections they would need to make sure that there's no backlash from their company or from the industry. So we need to make sure that there's appropriate vessel grow protections. And then third is we need a deactivation mechanism. If there's a national security emergency

or if we're enforcing legislation, the companies are not complying with, we need to be able to flip an off-switch and we currently don't have that on the table. When I will say about the

president is his opinion on AI has evolved and I think it can evolve again. The first thing he ever

said about the AI was in February, 2024 and in interview with Maria Bartromo where he said this might

be the most dangerous thing we will ever build. So we've gone from that to the last week and I think

at some point the evidence will become overwhelming enough that they'll be spurred into action. I'm just hoping it's not too late. Yeah, I'm hoping it's not because something really bad happens. Now look, you know that there are people who will listen to this conversation, people like David Sachs who is Trump's AI's are who will say, "You and I are idiots. We are doomers that every technology that comes along includes people who decide that it's going to end

the world, that the problem in the AI community is that it's this tiny, incestuous group of individuals who read the same science fiction and spin each other up all the time." And so that's half the problem. The other half is, you know, the CEOs talking about the power of their products as they run up to IPOs where they could sell off portions of the company and become billionaires. And by the way, they really need to float those shares of the company

because AI is so capital intensive that they'll go bankrupt otherwise. I know I just throw a lot at you, but like what is your general reaction to that theory of the case? And so the people who think like, you know, the Jacob Cox and Tweet that we talked about at the beginning of this, that kind of kicked off this latest conversation, it's all like an info off that's planned by organizations like yours and some of these companies to, I guess, kill progress or lead to the

government just controlling this for the sake of controlling AI. When I'm digging my opinions on

global warming, I tend to trust climate scientists and not those who find Enron. Like I think that's

just the premise we have to start with, right? I think there's folks who have PhDs who've spent decades working in academia who really studied these models, the three most cited computer scientists in history have articulated the exact set of risks that I'm talking about. I tend to trust those folks more than folks who do not have direct scientific expertise and are not actually making these models. The second point is let's disregard anything that I'm saying, let's disregard anything

that Jacob Cox said. The reality is that this is coming from quarters who have no incentive to make

these arguments. So first, like I said, there's now hundreds of people in the national security community who are not in the bay who are not reading that science fiction. People whose whole business is to stop bad things from happening who are freaking out about these models. I think that's important to point out. But second, it's the same signal coming from the administration. Six months ago, the director of national intelligence puts out the annual threat assessment. Where in

between squeeze between the Russian Iran sections is just a sentence, we must maintain control of the machines and artificial intelligence. That's coming from somewhere, the secretary of defense put out a whole adoption memo saying that control of these AI systems is necessary. There isn't a quarter that you can look to whether it's David's access on administration or national security experts or anyone else who isn't bringing these alarm bells. So I agree with Sachs. Let's not trust

set of civil society organizations. Let's not even trust the people leaving the companies. But at some point, when anyone who has ever had any business in touching these models or deploying them with the national security mission is the same saying the same thing, we need to start acting differently. It makes me crazy, man. It's just so frustrating these guys who are just like big tech CEOs and investors with a clear financial interest who are

coming from a community of people, a billionaires who want to make money off this technology. They're calling everyone else crazy and doomers. And also, just again, speaking of logical fallacies, they call everyone who has concerns about tech about AI, doomers and say we're crazy

For suggesting there could be some sort of existential threat to humanity.

time, say we have to be China. But that's a real existential threat. Well, I don't I feel like

it can't be both. Like if the technology is so powerful that losing the competition with China

could endanger us, then couldn't it just endanger us? The whole thing drives me crazy. I also just don't want to play that game. How did we get to this point is a society

that the only way we change course is when things risk the extinction of the human species?

What if it kills a billion people? A billion people? More people who've died in every

war since the black death? What if it's a million people? Right? The reality is that the richest

people in the world don't want this technology to be regulated because if there is an AI enabled by a weapon, if there is an AI enabled cyber weapon, these folks will be behind their gated communities. It's much more likely as it happened with COVID, as happens with these things, that disproportionately the brunt of this falls on people who are most vulnerable to the damage

and least responsible. And that's also true in the United States and also abroad.

Yeah. Do I mean, can I just say one last thing? Please. We talked about the National Security

RSS of AI because that's what I work on and that's a lot of what the podcast focused on.

But there's many other questions that we have about AI that are equally existential to making them work for Americans. There's questions of privacy. There's questions of the meaning of work as people do with workplace surveillance and labor displacement. There's questions about what happens to our kids in the coming years. There's questions about fairness, right? Like I'm a not so skinny guy with a funny last name. And I'm very conscious that for people in my community,

these systems can embed and amplify the worst notions we have of each other. So I just really want to make clear that while we focused on this topic, the fight for the future will not end, the day we win these battles for survival. And there's like a lot to work that out for both of us. Well, Hans, thank you so much for talking with me. It was a really great week to a book this because there's a lot going on. So I appreciate you coming on the show and I appreciate

what you guys are doing over the future of life Institute because it's important work.

I'm just glad some folks are not going to say it because the U.S. government is not. Thank you, Dominic. Have a go ahead. Thanks again, Hobbes and Childery, if you're joining the show and we will talk to you guys next week. Positive the world is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Elona Minkowski, Michael Goldsmith, and Inisha Bonnergy. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hethcote,

Jordan Canter, Kenny Muffet, David Tolls, and Ryan Young. Our staff is proud of the unionized with the writer's killed of America East.

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