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the switch, so why not you? Try ODU for free at ODU.com. That's ODU-O.com. Welcome to Proftry Markets. I'm Ed Nelson. It is June 17th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined as chip stock sold off. Meanwhile, the Dow hit another all-time high-brent crude, fell lower. The yield on tenure treasury slid. The head of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision do this afternoon. On Calcy, the odds at the Fed
holds rate steady are at 99%. And finally, SpaceX stock popped another 15% early in the day before pairing back most of those gains. It is now roughly as valuable as Amazon. More on that later. Okay. What else is happening? Open AI's financials were just leaked and the numbers are wild.
The company hit $13 billion in revenue last year up more than 250% from 2024. But the number
that has everyone talking is how much open AI lost last year. The answer, $39 billion. Meanwhile, the company has just filed to IPO and plans to go public later this year, which begs the obvious question is this kind of spending sustainable. So to dig into these numbers, we are speaking with the man who actually broke this news, the guy who found the financials and that is Ed Zittron, author of the "Where's your Ed at Newsletter?" And host of the better offline podcast, Ed. It's
great to see you. Thank you for joining us once again. I know you've had a busy day because you literally just reported these financials. I'm not going to ask how you got your hands on them, but what I hope what I do know is it's been independently verified, audited by the financial times. These are real numbers. You found these numbers. Take us through them. What should we know about
these financials? So last year, open AI spent about $34 billion to make about $13.01, sorry,
$07 billion. And to add about $22 billion in cash at the end of the year, lost about $21 billion. That $38.39 billion number is what I would describe as gap voodoo. There is some very strange stuff and I'll be going into this in future episodes, going on in the balance sheet and everything with this company. They turn from a nonprofit to a for-profit, though they remain profit-less, last year, which means that they have their net loss is quite strangest like $38.5 billion.
But the number I'll let's come back to is they lost $21 billion from operations. And they spent astronomical amounts on sales and marketing. They spent $7.5 billion on cost of revenue, 19.18 billion dollars in R&D. But that sales and marketing cost, that $5.73 billion is one I really
“like to hammer on because what? There's just like, excuse me. Well, how much did you spend?”
Because the thing is here, there could be, I think that there's a potential that that could be partly passed through to Microsoft for the revenue share I truly don't know. This just be guessing. But nevertheless, that's an extreme cost. But another thing to know is $867 million. So about 6.6%
Of open hours revenue last year came from soft bank.
They have a thinkled crystal intelligence. I'm not kidding. It's actually called that spelled the same way, too. But that's a very alarming number because that's a huge amount of revenue from one partner that I don't think was probably causing their cogs despite at all. That's a large amount of that revenue coming from a single partner that is more than likely just, I mean, I can assume, not like crystal intelligence is not launched anywhere. It's only it took a few months,
three, even get out the door. It was announced in February 2025, took until the end of the year to hear
anything about it. But they still paid nearly a billion dollars. It's very concerning. And it also
suggests the open AI's growth is not quite as fast as we believe, too. Just going back to the
“losses here, because this seems to be the most important thing for investors to understand”
is how much money are they burning really? The number that I saw, the net loss that was reported by you and by the financial times independently, I know you guys looked at the same document, but there are a lot of numbers on there and it gets little confusing. The number I saw was $38.5 billion in net losses up eightfold year over year. Now, there was some nuance in here because, as you pointed out, when you take into account, these other factors like interest income and interest expense,
the number goes up to $60 billion dollars. And you pointed out that they lowered that number by taking
that stuff out. But then the financial times also spoke with someone, quote, familiar with the matter. And this person who was familiar with the matter said that the reason that that number was so high was because, as Open AI's valuation went up, they had to create this $30 billion charge in investor rights, which I kind of understood to be stock-based compensation. And so their argument was when you were just for that, the real net loss is closer to $8 billion in losses.
All of this is obviously very confusing, and I don't fully understand it. So I just want to get your view on how do we make sense of this? Because there's a lot of numbers, a lot of nuance, and I'm not fully sure what it all means. So I did not speak to the person familiar with the
“matter I do not know who they are. I think that's Wank. I'm just going to be completely honest.”
You spent $34 billion to make $13.07 billion dollars. You didn't just lose a billion dollars
stock. Like, when I read that comment, I did a big shocker. And then you were the boost this would all get hot and heavily like, "Ah, the proof we need." The numbers to look at are the actual costs and the actual revenues. These companies, Open AI in particular, have lived high on the hog, spreading weirdness around numbers. The numbers to focus on on how much they're burning. $1.57 billion just on general administrative, just on people. And I don't even think that that includes all the
people. It doesn't, I don't have any other knowledge as to this because I don't have the definitions of these times from within the sheets. But the, the thing is here is this is a company with spiraling costs, dramatic costs. We beyond what we thought that is spending and they put research and
“development in there and they market that. I believe personal belief here because they want people to”
think that this is a temporary situation. This is something that will go away. The when there's enough R&D, they can stop. No, no, no, R&D number going up very high. Everything is increasing, every cost is increasing. And I think it's just a kind of a frightening sign of what the units of these companies look like. And think about it like this. Open AI has already said as part of the Musk trial that they're going to spend $50 billion on compute this year alone in
2026. Their losses are going to be astronomical. I don't have any privy knowledge to the 2026 numbers, but based on these, they could be burning $ 1890 billion. It's genuinely, it's genuinely horrifying. I'm glad that I got to tell this story before the S1 is filed because I think people need to see what, what the units of this company look like before they get to chance to massage them. Yeah, I agree that they're actually one of the craziest numbers was the sales and marketing number
up to $5.7 billion. It jumped 418% in one year. That's 44% of total revenue. And we just look for the context when you look at Facebook's marketing. It peaked at 28% of revenue in 2008, a Google's hit 11% in 2003, open eyes at 44%. So they're spending astronomical amounts of money not to build AI, but to sell AI to make it profitable. And that does seem to be a real problem. I mean, just looking at the SpaceX IPO as a comparison point, when the S1 came out,
I wrote about it and a lot of people talked about it.
The numbers did not look great from a profitability perspective. We called it a
“money furnace, cash, and serator, et cetera, because that's what was happening and continues to”
happen. The company is losing astronomical amounts of money, building mostly AI, also rockets, but AI is the real money loser. And yet the stock is flying right now. It's as valuable as Amazon,
currently. So I guess I'd be interested to hear what you think will happen when the S1 finally
does come out for Open AI. Maybe these numbers aren't concerning to people, or maybe they will be interested to hear your views. If Open AI had SpaceX's losses, they'd be so happy, but then again, SpaceX doesn't have Open AI's revenues. So who knows? I think the reason SpaceX has flown in the way it has is because of the Musk reality distortion field. And there's ability to play goldmoney and JP Morgan against each other. Both of them, everyone there should be ashamed of
themselves for pumping theirs, for what they're just like, oh, AI revenue will increase 300x in four years. But all that aside, these are fundamentally different companies. Even though SpaceX has its horrible burning AI element, it still has styling, it still has the rocket ships. It also has the social network, but I don't know if I'd say that was a plus. It still has a function business. Open AI has chatGPT and API. That's it. Like, they can dance around being like, oh, we got
Joni Iv's nonsense. Oh, we got like a consumer device. Oh, we got we're going to do an everything app. But they're just dancing around the fact that they have one product. They have one product with a few offshoots. They don't have ways of investing more money to make money. You mentioned profitability earlier. I don't think that's possible. I don't like their costs are so severe.
“That I don't think profitability is actually possible for any AI lab. I think that anthropic”
is going to look similarly horrible. I think that the markets believe for some reason that things won't look this bad. I've been speaking to people all day about this. And everyone's saying, wow, I didn't know it would be that bad. And I genuinely, I got a laugh at it. It's like, the people think I was kidding. The people think I was, I was chuckling to like, oh, I just, I guess they were bad. No, of course they were this bad. So I don't think the open AI and anthropic have the new ones
and also the aggressive bully mentality of Musk. I really, really dislike to be clear to do an IPO with the amount of bullshit that will be necessary to sell this dog. I don't know how, because remember in the S1, they're also going to have to do growth trajectory. They're going to have to say what they could grow into. I think it's, I think it's going to be difficult to float. They could
“theoretically. But I don't considering how SpaceX is done. I think they have a higher chance than”
none. But at the same time, their SpaceX's numbers were bad. These numbers are terrifying. These are scary numbers. And watching the Copa Olympics on Twitter, as people like, well actually it's okay,
you saw that, you saw the quote that said 8 billion. It's okay. They didn't actually spend 30
for billion. He spent 8 billion dollars. It's okay. Nothing bad happened at all. Nothing weird. It's all very silly because this is a company that spent 34 billion dollars to make 13.07 billion dollars. And also 867 million of that was what looks like given to them by soft bank. And it's that is not a stable or thriving business. This is a business that is just consuming capital at no alarming rate with no sign of stopping. They just raised $122 billion at the beginning of this
year. I don't think they're doing that because they're going to get profitable. It does seem as though when this company goes out, when it goes public and it appears that it is going to go public, they have filed. Planes to go public in the fall. The valuation will be similar to SpaceX, almost entirely dependent on the CEO's ability to tell a compelling story that enough people buy into and believe. Elon is someone that you could arguably bet good money on doing that because he has
a proven track record of being an incredible storyteller specifically to the markets on what his
companies will achieve. Sam Altman, I'm not sure I'd back him to tell a compelling story or to capture the imaginations of investors in the markets because it's clear that the numbers aren't going to do it forehand. Also the other day, I had to go and check on this role with talking. Here's the reason I don't think I agree with you fully. I don't think Sam Altman's got the head for this because when his customers started complaining about the cost, he said in a panel,
"Yeah, AI costs are a huge issue now." You don't say that, Sammy. You don't. That's not what
Investors want to hear.
are really excited to see what they can do with AI. You don't go, "Yeah, that's a huge problem." What are you going to do on the road show? You keep losing money. You've got to lose money to
lose money. It's certainly very concerning. It's amazing that you've got your hands on this. It
“really is so important. In these companies, the size, the valuation, and the sense in which they”
are becoming in a lot of ways to scam it to this market and to expectations of this market is so important. Now we've finally gotten some transparency into what's really going on here. So we appreciate it. Ed Zitrin is the author of the "Where's your Ed at Newsletter?" Also the host of the Better Offline Podcast Ed. Appreciate your time. Thanks for having me. After the break, SpaceX stock keeps going up. And for even more markets insights you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter
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company in the world tied with Amazon. The stock popped more than 15% early in the day to reach
“that milestone and briefly eclipse to Microsoft too. That rally followed an announcement from SpaceX”
that it is acquiring AI coding startup cursor for $60 billion. The stock gave up most of those
gains through the day, closing up just 5% still, shares have rallied 48% from their IPO price on Friday. Clearly, there is still a lot of excitement around this company, so we wanted to talk to someone who has actually run the numbers and attempted to value this stock. So joining us to discuss SpaceX, we are speaking with Nicholas Owens, equity analyst for Morningstar, Nicholas, thank you for joining us. You are someone who has actually done a discounted cash flow analysis of this company,
you valued the company, you wrote about it and your number that you reached was $780 billion, which is, I mean, we compare it to the current valuation, $2.6 trillion. It is notably a lot lower, take us through how you got to that number. The headline number that you just mentioned is the weighted average of three scenarios. And the way we valued SpaceX was in three parts, essentially, the rocket piece Starlink and the AI piece, which is itself kind of a set of moving parts.
I would argue that the rocket and Starlink is more straightforward, it's a more mature part of the
business, and in most of our scenarios, there worth say $611 billion. In terms of enterprise value,
some $40 a share, let's say. The AI, we think there's a lot of writing on some unproven outcomes, and I'm not really talking about the science or engineering behind data centers in space, though there's some debate about that. It's really the financial benefit of having a data center in space. Is there some kind of operating cost advantage versus a terrestrial data center? We modeled this business primarily as an infrastructure play, so renting out computing capacity
the way they've started to do with anthropic in Google. You know, if Grock takes off, then we would say that we're sort of indifferent between them renting out the capacity and using it for lots of Grock jobs, and then monetizing that some other way. We would assume there's some market rate for
“that, and that's how we modeled it. And so the difference between our valuation and the market price”
really has to do with how probable do you believe it is going to be that both the Starship Rocket is highly reusable, like in hours or days, and that data centers in space will be a call it a compelling bargain in terms of their operating costs versus terrestrial. Both of those might be true, but we think there's only about a 7% probability that they will both be true at the same time, and that results in a much higher valuation that's closer to the market price here.
And so I think that the market investors are essentially saying they believe these will both be true for sure, but we don't. This is the thing that I think is really important, which is that your valuation is weighing multiple probabilities at the same time, and it isn't
“ruling out what you describe as the moonshot scenario, which I think is an accurate portrayal of”
some of these businesses, orbital data centers, down the line, civilizations, and cities on Mars. I mean, how do you even value that? But the point being, you've actually taken all of that into account, weighed up the probability, and you've landed in a number that is less than half what the company is currently trading at. And I think that that is striking. I want to get to your reactions to how the stock is trading in a moment, but I want to stay on your valuation
for a moment longer. You also said, you said, quote, we value SpaceX at $780 billion with a morning
start economic, remote rating of narrow. I've seen a lot of people pushing back criticizing the remote rating. A lot of people would say this is an extremely wide mode that building rockets, not many people can do that. Take us through why you landed on on that. I'm really glad to have the methodology behind me, so to speak, at Morningstar, we had quite a good discussion about this couple weeks ago. And I will say this, the space ex-business that I, as the aerospace and defense
Analysts was planning to cover until February, has almost all of the characte...
business, a very, very prodigious cost advantage, both through the R&D and how they do it, and the economies of scale. They've just done it more than anyone else. And so the satellite business and the rocket launch business kind of reinforce each other in terms of them just marching down this cost curve. They're a decade ahead of anybody else, and we'll continue to do so with assuming Starship continues to add. The bigger loading bay of Starship means that you can put more
stuff, and it's your cost to launch a kilogram of stuff goes down. You're just dividing by a bigger
denominator, and that's amazing. The company gets a narrow mode rating from us because of the AI
piece, which is, I would say, indeterminate at best, in terms of what its mode would be, and they're investing very aggressively in that business. So you're taking these returns on capital that are evident from the Starship Starlink and rockets business, and you're saying I'm going to write a $60 billion check to go get cursor. I'm, you know, do similar size of investments to build
“data centers in the space. And while I think there could be modes in AI, we don't see evidence of”
them here. So, you know, Rock is not one of the leading models. I do think there's a pathway
in this, let's say, moonshot scenario, and even in what we call the minimum viable products
scenario where they can extend some of that cost advantage into data centers in space. If they can, then that would be, let's say, Modi, but it's, it's too soon to say, frankly. Yeah, this is part of the problem with this stock, which is, it was a space company. And then a couple of months ago, they turned it into something else by buying XAI, and then saying that actually it's an AI company, or that that is the $28 trillion or $26 trillion opportunity, according
to the S1, that was the total dressable market with AI. So, I mean, I appreciate you clarifying that. It's like there are different businesses that were evaluating here. The space business might have a wide mode, but this is no longer a space business, apparently, because that's not what they're pitching, and that's supposedly not what the valuation is predicated on. Let's go to the
“stock price. Do you agree with that? Yeah, and I think segueing to the stock price is appropriate,”
because I think the, let's call it packaging of this company as an AI business is very rational way to tap into investor appetite for AI. Right. So, the IPO price was 135. We're looking at $200 as a share at the moment. That does not make much sense to me. I assume it doesn't make much
sense to you, but when I think about reasons why that might be the case, the first thing that
jumps out to me is that only 4% of the shares are available to the public. The float is incredibly small, which to me means this has high potential to become a meme stock and seems to look like it already is a meme stock. Is that the explanation? I think so. I thought about it in terms of supply and demand, as you point out, small float, and then you have this additional, let's say, the market is looking forward to sort of, let's call it structural demand from, you know,
passive funds ETFs and others that track a handful of indexes. So, our moonshot scenario, if you dial the probabilities to 100%, right now it would be $169 a share. So, there's hundreds of billions of dollars of potential revenue in there. We are modeling a scenario in which they become a major player in gigawatts of compute and space, et cetera, sort of giving them the benefit of all that doubt, we get to 169. The rating would probably be close to the same at these market prices,
“and that's just because I think investors are either pricing in further options, like, you know,”
a city on Mars, which we don't describe a positive value to, it's sort of a wash. If you're investing more in these shares, you're paying an option to see if that's going to work. And we would say that those types of other projects are more likely than not to not work out, which, you know, maybe puts me in the minority there. But in the longer term, starting at the earnings announcement that anticipate at the end of July or early August, big chunks of shares will come online
From the lockups from insiders.
rebounds before then, but then you have a decent chunk of stock coming online from insiders,
“and I think that will be the next real test of supply and demand. How concerned would you be,”
do you think we should agree about those lockups? To me, it seems like that's going to put a enormous pressure on the stock and if you're holding this stock at $20, I mean, it seems like that that should be top of mind. I mean, what kind of impact do you think there's lockup explorations will actually have on this? I wouldn't be able to predict, you know, a stock chart, so to speak, but it's tens of billions of dollars. It's more than the IPO flow will come online
there and in that first big chunk after Q2 earnings. And the indexes that are buying, as the
floating creases, you know, they most of them do this flow adjustment to their waiting. So their demand will kind of slowly scale up, but I don't think it will, will offset that chunk, you know, that's likely to come online. And the perspective here is who's selling these are investors who've owned this stock as a private company for more than a decade in some cases. They don't care if it's $160, $172, $200, their cost basis is nothing, you know, and so that's just, and the
“price is set by the marginal seller. That's what I keep saying. Yeah, 100% final thing here, space”
extras announced is $60 billion a deal for cursor, which is this AI coding startup. They had announced
that there was an option to buy previously, so we're getting a little bit of deja vu, but it's now happened and they will be paying in stock, which I'll give credit to SpaceX. Great move, highly inflated stock price at this point. That's really, that's really effective currency in the M&A market. Does that acquisition change any of the math on your valuation? Does it change your perspective at all or not? It's sort of a mostly a wash. We actually lowered our fair value that
probability weighted to 62 from 63 today. The cost of the, but it actually raises the moonshot value. So I think it, the whole idea of cursor, my understanding was it was to bring on these people who were able to be able to make growth, you know, learn better and be more useful for coding type applications. So I give them benefit of the doubt and say, let's make that true. I mean, and that
“was originally structured as an option to buy if that, let's say likely, or proves out. I think they”
kind of just jump to the finish and said, let's do it. The, so kind of the purchase price, the outlay
and the dilution of 60 billion of equity is offset by an adjustment I made in the forecast of,
let's say, greater enterprise type revenue from that audience. And they close out and say, I could be honest for morning star, this will be very interesting to see how this stock trades are in that few weeks and months. And I'm sure we'll be having plenty more conversations. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. It's official. The stock market has entered crazy town. SpaceX is now as valuable as Amazon, despite generating less revenue than Macy's. And all over Wall Street,
I'm hearing things about how the fundamentals don't matter anymore with SpaceX because this is a once in a generation company that will save humanity, exactly the kind of rhetoric that has fueled previous stock market bubbles. But it isn't just SpaceX. The entire stock market is now reaching dot com levels of euphoria. The Shiller PE ratio, which is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is now up to 42 times earnings. That is the second highest
reading ever. The only time it was higher was in, you guessed it, 1999, when it hit 44 times earnings, which is of course not that much higher. Now, you might remember, last fall, there was a lot of talk about a stock market bubble. And you might remember what we said about it. We acknowledged that, yes, the market was frothy, but it wasn't anywhere close to dot com levels of frothingous. And for that reason, we were hesitant to call it a bubble. Well, that argument can no longer
really be made. We are now almost exactly in dot com level territory. That's not an opinion that is just a fact. Now does that mean every stock is about to crash? No. In fact, I'd argue there are plenty of stocks that look relatively cheap right now. Microsoft would be one of them in my view, so would meta. But it does mean that in certain areas of the market, we are certainly
Do for a correction.
are high and phomo is very strong. Investors have gone crazy plenty of times before, and it does
“appear, they are going crazy again. AI euphoria has officially arrived.”
Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Allison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Schlon, Isabella Kinsel, Cristino Donahue and Mia Solverio and our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prophecy Markets from Prophecy Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Allison. I will see you tomorrow.
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