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The $1.5B Insider Trade Before Trump’s Iran Post — ft. Anthony Scaramucci

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Ed Elson speaks with Anthony Scaramucci about the surge in insider trades tied to Trump’s Truth Social posts on the Iran war. They discuss how widespread the corruption may be and whether it could car...

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Navy reserve, one of the smallest in the world. Here's an Irish joke. What's the difference between an Irish wedding and an Irish funeral? One less drunk? It's money is evil, then that building is hell. Welcome to Proxy Market. I'm Adelson. It is March 26th. Let's check it on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices swung through the day, but ended the session in the green, oil declined. Treasury yields fail. And finally, matter and Google shares were little changed

after the companies were found liable of negligence in the social media addiction trial. Okay, what else is happening? The Iran war is shining a spotlight on insider trading,

and Washington may be at the centre of it. On Monday morning, roughly one and a half billion dollars

in S&P futures were purchased, and $192 million in oil futures was sold. That was five minutes before President Trump announced that productive conversations with Tehran were underway. The position net is $60 million dollars minutes after the truth. Social post sent us a Chris Murphy called it, quote, "mine blow and corruption," and I'll ask publicly whether Trump, a family member or a White House starfer, was behind the trade. Meanwhile, the FT separately flaged

$580 million in crude oil futures that traded 14 minutes before the announcement. Okay, here to help us untangle what is going on here was speaking with Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and manager partner of Skybridge Capital. I'm think, thank you for joining us.

Please, I know you have thoughts. Well, it's first of all, it's great. It's great to be on.

So, if I want to add to that, if you don't mind. So, please, please, please. Well, second, 2000 and 25 liberation day, they put trades on. They got short the market, prior to the announcement. You know, when Trump came down from Mount Evil, like Orange Moses, with the big tablets, they got short the market prior to that development. A week later, prior to Trump saying he's pulling back the tariffs, there's going to be a 90-day moratorium. They

got along the market. Okay, on October the 10th, about an hour before the tweet went out, related to the rare earth minerals, and the fight that we started with China, they got short the market, they got short the crypto market. So, this is another example of it, but it's been very consistent throughout the administration. 10s of millions of not hundreds of millions of dollars are being made. And, you know, so much so that the head of the

enforcement area that's supposed to police this stuff, she resigned last week, because she says she can't get the agency focused on this. Now, we sent Martha Stewart,

and so, you're young yet, I think you know what she is. I watched the documentary, so I know.

Okay, so for your younger viewers, she had $45,000 a profit that she had a discord, and she spent five months in a federal prison, because they caught her quote unquote insider trading. This is hundreds of millions of dollars. Okay, but there's a bigger problem here for the American people. And that is, this is rampant. Trump has taken its exponential with his team, but you know, a Democratic representative is Kelly Morrison. So, Kelly Morrison bought

Seronic Technologies, so name I didn't know, but she bought Seronic Technolog...

warship company nine days after the beginning of the war of the Iran. Right as the Navy

was awarding Seronic contracts, her office said that her portfolio is managed by a blind

trust and an investment manager, and she had no prior knowledge. But government watchdog said, hey, whoa, this is a pretty clear conflict of interest. So, what I'm here to tell your viewers and listeners, Trump has gone exponential, but Nancy Pelosi, she's traded her account better than any hedge fund manager than I've ever met in my life. Myself included, you pick the biggest hedge fund managers. It's not just her. It's bipartisan. Okay, so they're running rampant in Washington

with the corruption. As an American, I'm embarrassed by it. As an American, I would like it to stop. The insider trading at the Congress level is legal. The insider trading at the Trump level is probably not legal, because it's not Trump himself doing it, but it's people close to him. That are actually doing it. That probably makes it illegal. So, so here's two things I would say very quickly. Thing number one, if you're a young kid, if you're the younger version of me,

growing up in the 1970s, Professor Galloway, growing up in the 1970s, we had hope on our side and aspiration. I'm not saying there wasn't corruption at in the country, but it was veiled. It wasn't this big. It wasn't this dramatic. And when you have corruption like this, at this scale, if you're a young kid, if you're a young Scott Galloway, a young Anthony Scaramucci, you're looking up and you're seeing a concrete ceiling. You're saying, "Okay,

oh my god, there's a two tiered system. There's one tier for those guys. It's a different tier for us.

We're never going to make it." And it creates a tremendous amount of cynicism in a society.

So, I'm heartbroken by it, but nothing's going to happen. And they're going to make some more tweets and trade the oil markets. Somebody got short oil before the president's announcement yesterday where we said we're getting this big gift from Iran. And it turned out, I guess, one of the tie tankers was able to pass through the Shrader-Hormuz as a sign of good faith, which was you know, lots of oil coming back onto the international markets. And of course, oil went down

and guess what they did, they closed the short position. So, I think this stuff is reprehensible,

but I don't think it's changing. I'm so glad you mentioned all of the previous instances that this has happened, because it seems that everyone is focused on looking at the inside of trading as it relates to Iran. And then my mind goes back to, yes, exactly, liberation day. When we seems to see the same thing, then the post-liberation day taco, we've seen this constantly over and over again. As you say, it's happened on both sides, but the level with which it has been,

I guess, shameless. The fact that they don't seem to care at all, the fact that the kids are investing in these drone companies as well, before we go and launch these attacks on Iran, combined with the fact, as you also mentioned, you made all the points that I hoped you would make, which is the SEC director has left, because she tried to investigate this stuff, and she got scolded by her bosses, and we saw similar things with the DOJ as well. And so I guess the question

becomes, I mean, how bad has this gotten? And do you think that people are properly recognizing this? Because I see what's happening. This is like the greatest corruption we've ever seen, or at least that I'm aware of, that to me is like, it's a cut above, just regular political gripes. This seems to me like this is a serious issue that I don't know that people need to at least vote on, or at least consider voting on. So the woman that you're referring to as her name

is Margaret Ryan, because she was just with the SEC for many years, and she basically resigned

under protest, because she said that she cannot get any enforcement of any of these actions. And by the way, these are easy to tag, and these are easy to DOJ Center, the tag on the trading, you can find out immediately who's doing all this stuff, and then you could start bringing cases,

and she's been told by her bosses that she cannot do that. So I think that's reprehensible.

But I want to take you back, because you said this is the worst corruption ever. We had the T-pop dome scandal, unbelievable corruption, but those people got prosecuted. That was at the turn of the century, the 1800s and the 1900s. We had the abscam case when I was in high school. This is back

In the 1980s, where two congressmen were caught on a bribe, where the FBI had...

and they got caught saying, "Oh yeah, I give us that money and we'll change our position on this

policy inside the government," and they got caught. So at the point I'm making, we have corruption

in the country, we have political corruption, banking corruption, all sorts of corruption, but attached to that corruption was some level of law enforcement, and some level of justice. I'm not saying it's perfect, but at least there was a sub-position in the country. He's, "Oh wow, do something wrong like that, that bald face, there will be repercussions." And that repercussion ad creates a deterrent for people. Yeah. Do you see what I mean? Like I'm going to be speaking

at the 90s, why would the guy who wore, got caught inside her trading or wire for the federal government, and he stopped a huge insider trading ring in the 2006-7 and eight-time period on Wall Street? That stuff is over. Okay, and so it makes the markets unfair, it makes the pricing

in the market manipulative, and it's giving a license to these people to do what they want.

Yeah. And you know, look, the flip side is, you know, the congressmen are going to say, you pay me $180,000 a year. I can't afford to live, and so I'm going to rich myself by doing this. And I want to make this last point because I need your listeners to hear this. Yeah. We have this thing called Citizens United, which means people can give unlimited donations to the congressmen,

right? All political candidates, all policies, unlimited donations. So here's what's going on.

The congress has a 14% approval rating. It's slightly above Kimel Jung, the North Korean dictator. However, the individual congressmen has a 95% incumbent rate. So they're narrative to their people as who cares, man. I'm going to do whatever the hell I want. The money's coming in from

big food, big farm, big business, big wealthy. I'm going to get re-elected. And so what do we trade

in today? What information am I going to get? You'd love many times a congressman has bought the fence stocks that day before two days before the contract is announced that the appropriations is going to that defense contractor. I mean, it is staggering, and it is sad, and it is tragic, and it's very unfair to the American people. My question to you before we let you go. I mean, you're in the politics game, or at least you're a political commentator. You have been in politics.

I mean, this, to me, seems like it could be the issue going into the midterms and perhaps for the presidential elections. Well, there are certain issues that are political issues. There are certain things that are cultural. There are issues with DEI. There are, you know, some people believe that tariffs are a good idea. Some people think it's a bad idea. But this issue seems to be so brazen and so criminal that it makes me believe that this is probably going to be

the ultimate issue. And that is the issue of corruption and insider trading and profiting off of being elected into a position of power as someone who's, you know, in politics. Do you think that that will transpire? So I don't, and if it should, but I don't, let me tell you, let me give a quick history. Peter Schweitzer wrote about this insider trading stuff in 2012, 60 minutes did a big story on it. And the Congress said, oh, we're going to pass something

called the 2012 Stock Act, which prohibited the use of non-public information for trading. And so there was an eight month period of time where the Congress was handcuffed and they couldn't trade. Then by voice vote, they didn't want to go out of the floor, because I didn't want to be seen on C-spin by voice vote that called in and said, let's put it back in. Wow. Okay. We're going to vote on putting it back in. Yes, we're voting and putting it back in. So now

fast forward. It's 14 years later. And the last 14 years they've been running this rocket. So Chris Murphy, you mentioned him earlier in the program. He's a senator from Connecticut. He's trying

to come up with something now that's called the Nobets Act. Okay. And he's basically trying to say

if we can stop the prediction markets, make it illegal to bet on assassinations or make it illegal, to bet on wars. It's called the Bettoff Act. I should say. But in any event, I don't think that's going to pass. And by the way, if it does pass for political purposes leading into the midterms, as soon as the midterms are over it, they're going to vote back to get to put it back on. I'm just telling you what these guys do. This is why people don't like them. Exactly. It's very,

It's very depressing.

found out and managing partner of Sky Bridge, capital, Anthony always appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you. Real pleasure to always be on with you, man. Thank you.

After the break, Alonbel's sound off in private credit. And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put at simply put.proxymedia.com. Support for the show comes from Factor, eating healthy requires time, effort and commitment. The problem? You don't have any of that. So what do you do? Star? No. Not really. Not a good long-term solution. But Factor might be a great option. They provide fully prepared meals designed

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weeks back. I got you a birthday gift not to pat myself on the back, but it was a pretty good one. It was indeed, you surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upperclass tickets to London. So tell us all about it.

It was pretty incredible. From the moment I entered that upperclass cabin, I have to tell you,

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So, Ed, the cool real question here is what do you plan to get me from my birthday?

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That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. We're back with property markets. Private credit is in crisis, and investors are rushing for the exits. Erie's management and Apollo both capped with drills at 5% this week after redemption requests came in at more than 11%. That means investors got back less than half of what they asked for.

Meanwhile, Moody's downgraded a fund run by KKR, and a future standard to junk status on Monday, saying the fund's asset quality had worsened more than its peers. The latest wave of fear, wiped out more than $10 billion in market cap from areas, Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR on Tuesday.

And here to tell us, what is going on here? What is driving this turmoil in the private credit market?

We are speaking with Steve Isman, the legendary big short investor, also host of the real Isman playbook. Steve, thank you very much for joining us again on property markets. We wanted to have you on to talk about this because you were the guy who is telling us about this. Yes, I was a few weeks ago when we had you on that Friday episode, and things seemed to have gotten even worse. So just remind us what is happening in the private credit markets and what we've

learned here. So the, you know, the final thing is that for my podcasts, I do this weekly rap that I put out every Friday, and every week for the last probably two months. I was speaking

About private credit, and I just didn't use it for your viewers.

rap when I wake up Monday, and I do work every single day. And so for the last several weeks, the way it's been written, and it goes, and then there was some more bad news about private credit. On Monday, blah, blah, blah. And then I wake up Tuesday, and I am in a private, and on Tuesday, blah, blah, and on Wednesday, and so it's absolutely relentless. Yes. So let's take a step back. There are two issues here. They're related, but they're not exactly the same. The two issues are

should private credit have been sold to retail. Right. And we're, I think the answer to that

question is mostly no. And we're suffering the ramifications of that right now. And the second

issue, which is related, is are we starting a credit cycle in private credit? And how bad is it going to be? So let me address the first question first, and then we'll get to the second question, because that's, every piece of news that you hear is related to that. You know, private credit funds will originally create a for institutional money. And that makes a lot of sense, because you're talking about long-term illiquid loans and institutions know what they're getting,

they're getting a higher yield and exchange for less liquidity. And that's fine. After private credit, basically sold their funds every single institution on planet Earth, they looked around and they say, okay, now, would we sell it to? And they said, let's sell it to retail.

The problem is that with retail, you have to create liquidity. So what they did was they created

mostly what I like to call the illusion of liquidity or semi liquidity. Now all this was disclosed. It's none of this is illegal. So no one's going to jail for this. You know, this was all disclosed and the perspective is whether the retail investors actually understood what they were getting into, you know, who knows, but no question it was adequately disclosed. All these funds have quarterly caps in their documents. Most of the funds have a 5% quarterly redemption cap. Some have seven,

but most have five. And so what's been happening is, for the last year, the news on private credit has gotten steadily worse than we could talk about, you know, where that's happened. And so the redemption notices are universally coming in now above the 5% cap. And with the exception of blackstone in the most recent quarter, which did honor a 7.9% redemption notice, even though the cap is 5%, everybody else is just honored the cap. That's part one. Part two

is that we have not had a credit cycle on the United States since a great financial crisis. And that has bred a tremendous amount of complacency among slenders. And we are overdue for a credit cycle. And traditionally, if you know, if you know anything about lending history, whenever there is a credit cycle, the place that it takes place almost 100% of the time is the asset class that grew the most. So in the great financial crisis, the asset class that grew the most was supply mortgages.

And that blew up the most. Since the great financial crisis, the banks have not had much long growth at all. All the long growth has really been in private credit. Private credit 10 years ago was a 300 billion per year market. And now it's close to a two trillion per year market. So you're starting to see cracks in credit. You know, you had this, you mentioned that this KKR

fund got downgraded by moody. By the way, the rating editing is always very slow. If the rating

agencies are downgrading it, you know what's back to the real problem. You know, it's no, it's problem. Because if even the rating agency is a bit there's a problem, you know, problem. Yes.

So you have one downgraded of a fund because it's, it's non-acruils were too high. I think they were

five and a half percent, which is probably the highest in the industry. You have an, what the, this private credit, there are three parts of private credit. There's direct lending, there's asset back lending, and then call it other. The biggest category is direct lending in the asset back lending.

Direct lending, which gets the most press, 80 percent of that business is basically

private-collar credit lending money to private equity to buy companies. What makes this sort of

Incestuous is that most private credit funds are run by private equity compan...

what you have is private equity raising money in its private credit funds to lend to itself to go buy the companies that it wants to buy. If that sounds circular, it's only because it is.

So 80 percent of private credit is related to that. Now between 2018 and 2022,

private equity went on a buying binge of software companies. Yep. Now, that looked like a great decision because, you know, for the last 30 years, the best place in tech to be was in software.

You have the SaaS models software, as I think it's called software as a service model,

where you pay monthly. So everybody loves that because it's so easy to model. Software companies have done exceptionally well, as technology has grown, and they want on a buying binge. So apparently, about 25 percent of all direct lending is in software companies that were bought between 2018 and 2022. Now, those companies were bought when interest rates were considerably

lower than where they are today. A lot of that happened during COVID. And about 11 percent of those

loans are going to need to be refinanced next year. And another 20 percent are going to be a refund need to be refinanced the year after that. And if they are refinanced at all, they're going to be refinanced at considerably higher interest rates. So that's a problem. And some of them may not be refinanced at all because people are literally freaking out about the impact of they are on software, as I'm sure you've told you viewers many, many times that I've told my.

Yes. So what's happened? And then there was a piece of news today that I thought was very interesting, which it was not in the direct lending world. It was in the asset back world. Barclays put out a press release. I don't know if the press release was a Bloomberg story. Probably

I think it was a Bloomberg story. That Barclays has dramatically pulled back from making asset

back loans to small to medium sized companies. So it'll only make asset back loans to large corporates. This is what this is what happens at the beginning of a credit cycle. The news gets bad. People start to worry about losses. Underwriting standards start to tighten. Certain borrowers are cut off and lending gets tight. Yes. And when that happens, more often than not, but not all the time, you go into a recession. Private credit is now big enough.

And it has been the entire growth engine of lending for the last 10 years. That if private credit starts to get very very tight, that's going to hurt our economy a lot. So I think that is the big question for regular investors. Because I mean, we saw what happened when that credit cycle occurred in 2008. People cut crushed. It was just total chaos. And everyone knows about your role in that story. It's not going to be as bad as that.

Everybody's got to calm down. I mean, I will talk about that. If there's a recession, it'll be a recession. It's not going to be. I still very strongly won't be a financial crisis. Which is an important point because that is where the mind goes to. That's where the mind goes because of PTSD. Yes. Everybody has it from 2008. But it does seem, I mean, when you think about the dynamics here, if I could just try to simplify really what's happening, it's almost like

this big, a huge amount of leverage was built up on top of these software acquisitions. And now that everyone has decided, actually, maybe those acquisitions won such a good idea. Suddenly, it means that the lending that was built on top of those acquisitions wasn't even was idea, those could get totally wiped out. And in the dynamic-- Well, the equity gets wiped out first. Yes. And here's the problem with analyzing this.

It would be nice to know. What is the average for your typical one of these software companies?

Let's say I'll just make up a number. Let's say $100 million was lent to buy this company.

That's the debt. How much is the equity? Is there $100 million in equity? Is there $10 million in equity? I don't know. And these companies aren't disclosing it. So, you know, if there's a lot of equity there, then maybe the lenders are protected, just the equity gets wiped out or really are very, very, very badly. Right. But we don't know because we don't have enough data.

In that dynamic, what you have is, as we've discussed here, these withdrawal ...

that are becoming more and more discussed in the news, which has the feeling of a bank run.

It's like, oh no, I'm not so confident anymore. I want to take my money out in the bank. So, no, you can't take your money out, which makes people even more anxious. They want to keep taking the money out, which is kind of the problem. And in the case of a regular bank, the people who are trying to take their money out of regular people. Yes. In the case of the private credit, markets, it seems that it's mostly not regular people, but also kind of regular people because

as you say, they opened it up to retail. Well, let's retail as people with 401(k)s, it's people. That's brokerage accounts. It's not, it's not, it's not, I would say, it's not law and middle class people. Right. It's people with money who are upset that they can't get their money back. I'd be upset too. Yeah. I guess the the final question before I let you go here is, you know, if this occurs, if the credit cycle does occur here, how bad would it be? What would that

recessionary moment look like? And how much better would it be compared to say 2008? Okay. That's actually a very, very important question to address. What made 2008 as calamitous as it was? Was it not only was there a recession, but there was an actual fear that the entire bank system was going to collapse. And then, and then when the bank system collapses, I mean, if you go to the bank, you can't get your money. That's, that's planet

or the burn situation. And that's, that's why the government had to step in. Since the financial

crisis, I think the Federal Reserve, which is the Chief Bank regulator of the United States now, that was what happened from Dodd-Frank, has done a very, very, very good job, recapitalizing the banking system and reducing its risks. Not that it has no risk. This industry does have, it does make loans to these private credit funds, but I would categorically state that the US banking system is better capitalized and it has ever been in history,

hardstop. It's never been even closer to this well-capitalized. It has never, well,

also has never had as much liquidity on its balance sheets as it has today. So, I don't worry if there is a recession that there's a banking crisis, leaving Silicon Valley aside, which is a very, very unique kind of situation. If we have a credit cycle, private credit could put the

economy into a recession. And it'll be a garden, I think, a garden variety of recession. People will

lose, I mean, it's not going to be pleasant. Otherwise, it's going to be happy, and say, oh, it's only just a recession. No one's going to, you know, put candles on a birthday cake and say, how wonderful is this? But it'll be a garden variety of recession in the economy will slow. People will lose jobs. And eventually, we'll come out of it. But you're not going to, no one's going to be worried about JP Morgan or city group or Wells Fargo or any any of the

back, because it's just, it's just, it's unimaginable to me at this point. Yeah, equal plots encouraging and also quite worrying at the same time. We'll probably have to do another episode on this deep and deeper. I'm sure we're going to see a lot more health. Oh, you think there's going to be more

like maybe tomorrow exactly. You have to redo your, your, your, your money all you get after

redo my rap, your rap. Steve Eisenman, host of the real Eisenplay boat Steve, always appreciate it. Thank

you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Well, we've already discussed the inside of trading scandal as it relates to Trump and Iran, the fact that $2 billion worth of oil and S&P futures were traded 15 minutes before Trump announced he was in talks with Iran and the fact that we likely won't see any retribution because Trump has essentially gutted the SEC, the agency whose job it is to go after these crimes. We've discussed

all of this. But I think we should also just take a moment to put this specific inside of trading scandal into context and acknowledge the fact that actually this isn't the only one we've seen. No, we have seen plenty of other inside of trading scandals during this administration, which Anthony correctly highlighted. But each time it happens and after we've expressed a little bit of outrage, we seem to forget about it and then we just move on to the next thing. So let

me just remind you of a few of those scandals. Let's start with the tariffs, for example.

Most of us were busy worrying about how bad the tariffs would be for the econ...

and for trade relationships. And indeed, we were right. What we forgot about, though, was the fact

that millions of dollars were likely being made by insiders who already knew what Trump's

tariff policy was going to be. For example, more than a dozen government officials and congressional aides made big stock market trades before Trump came out with his first liberation day announcement. After that, he pulled those tariffs and he famously taught code. But just a few minutes before he did so, we saw once again a huge spike in S&P options trading with some trade skyrocketing more than 2,000% in a single hour. It was one of the largest jumps in the S&P's history and a

handful of people mysteriously seemed to know exactly what was about to happen. We also have to mention

the insider trading in crypto. The fact that Trump coined netted more than a billion dollars for

58 anonymous crypto accounts accounts whose operators happened to sell at the exact right time

right before millions of Americans lost literally billions of dollars of their own money. The

same thing happened with Melania corn. The same thing happened with world liberty financial. In fact, Eric Trump is now bragging about how much money his family made off of these crypto grifts. But I'm not done yet. We could also talk about the billions of dollars Jared Kushner raised from foreign governments to invest in Middle Eastern assets before he personally steered us into

war with Iran as was literally admitted by Trump himself. We could also talk about the millions

of dollars the Trump kids invested in defense companies and drone startups again before we decided to go to war in the Middle East. We could also talk about the Wittkov children who have been personally brokering real estate deals in the Middle East while their dad runs the United States foreign policy for the region or even we could talk about David Sachs who continues to invest in AI companies through his VC firm while he simultaneously runs our AI policy for the entire nation.

I could go on and on here. This is just scratching the surface and as I explained yesterday and as Anthony explained to this is only going to continue because the SEC and the DOJ and even the FBI have decided they don't want to do anything about it. Why? Because if they do, they'll probably get punished. Maybe they will get fired. This is a classic case of corruption. This is what happens in Russia. This is what happens in the fictional world of Batman and Gotham. The criminals

are now in bed with the cops which leaves us with one option. We have to vote them out but it also leaves Democrats with an interesting opportunity, especially the Democrats who are running for election and that is, you could make this your platform. You could promise that if you win, you will put every Trump affiliated insider trader behind bars. In fact, every insider trader for that matter. That could be your campaign and even better. If you win, you could actually follow through with that

promise and you could actually put these people in jail not because it's performative and not because it got you the votes but because it is the right thing to do. Billions of dollars have been made off of insider connections to the president but the more honest way to put it is that billions of dollars have been stolen by insiders connected to the president. The grift and corruption is reaching a level here that is simply untenable and I think we can all agree it is time we put an end to it.

Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss edited by Joel Passen and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams, our research team. This dutch lawn is about a pencil, christino don't hear me as a vario. Our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prophecy Markets from Prophecy Media. If you like what you had, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson and tune in tomorrow for our conversation with Bill

Gully. Today's number 77. That's how many people are in Ireland. I don't know why I said it

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