[MUSIC]
Bear walls, clear surfaces, the minimalist aesthetic is having a moment.
“And for some, it's a form of resistance.”
>> Being a lot of people, I have a sense that we live in this very consumer society and feel kind of a desire and need to push back against that. >> How to live with less? That's this week, unexpleted to me. New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.
[MUSIC] >> This week on Network and Chill, I'm taking you inside my sold-out New York City book for a stop from my brand new book, Well and Doubt. I sat down with the hilarious Header McMahon for a night of laughs, real money talk, and honest, financial truths.
We're getting into everything the book covers from how to actually build wealth, how to protect it, and how to stop leading money on the table. Whether you've already grabbed your copy of Well and Doubt or you're still on the fence, this episode will show you exactly why everyone's talking about it. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com/yourrichbf.
[MUSIC] >> Until now, mobile phone companies have worked very hard to ensure their phones do not start fires. But we found one company that dared to go in a different direction. Make a phone with fire starting as a feature.
On the first last we talked about all the greatest and weirdest phone concepts for mobile
world congress in Barcelona, plus after years of legal battles, Google and Epic are now best buddies, contractually obligated to not say mean things about their app stores anymore. That's this week on the Vrchast wherever you get your podcasts. >> Today's number 14.
“That's how many months Kristi Nome served as the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.”
That makes her tenure the second shortest in American history. However, the good news is she lasted longer than her dog. >> I'll be right back. >> I'll be right back. >> Honey, more kids met. If money is evil, then that building is hell. >> Show me something. >> [APPLAUSE] >> Welcome to Prophecy Markets.
I'm Ed Ellson. It is March 10th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rode out a volatile session with the S&P 500 falling as much as one and a half percent by clothes, however, the major indices were back in positive territory after Trump said the Iran war was "very complete" pretty much. Oil prices moderated after surging over the weekend, we'll talk about that shortly.
Meanwhile, the dollar climbed and Bitcoin topped $69,000. Okay, what else is happening? The global energy market is facing its most severe shock since the 1970s. The state of Homo's closed for the first time in recorded history, pushing the price of oil above $100 a barrel on Sunday. It spiked as high as $119 before crashing back down to $85 a barrel
on Monday, as the G7 signal it is ready to release strategic reserves.
Meanwhile, Qatar halted 20 percent of the global liquid natural gas supply after Iran fired drones
at a Qatari facility. Okay, here to help us break down what is happening in the Gulf and what it means for energy and for oil we are speaking with Mohammed Surgey, editor at Semaphore Gulf Mohammed. Thank you for joining us so much has happened in just a couple of days. This story has changed in literally by the hour. I mean, oil skyrocketing and then coming way back down, what do you make of what has happened over the past couple of days and what do you make of prices
in reaction to what's happened? Yeah, thank you for having me. This has been just an incredible turn of events I would say for the Gulf and all the eyes went towards Homo's. And that's the choke point for the natural gas that comes out of Qatar obviously and that had a huge price spike in gas prices in Asia and in Europe. But even more importantly, it's the choke point for
about 30 percent if not a bit more than the treated oil in the world. And you know, it's what comes
out from there, it's all of the oil from Iraq, all of the oil from Kuwait and a significant portion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The idea here is that we couldn't see any more ships going through over the weekend. And this one was the unthinkable, the closing, the closing of Homo's. And I think
“that's why we saw this huge swing up and down. But then when people started looking at, okay, so”
what is actually happening to supply is the market well supplied and how much can go through the pipelines that bypass hormones. There's a pipeline that goes from the east to west and Saudi Arabia usually has capacity, I would say between five million could go up to seven million barrels a day,
They could potentially move most of the oil that they need to the Red Sea.
pipeline that goes through the UAE down to the Gulf of Oman. And I think once you start factoring that in the supply scenario, it'll change a little bit and that's potentially one of the reasons why the prices came back down so quickly. I helped me make sense of what exactly markets are reacting to because there seem to be so many different stories here. One of which is Israel striking many of the oil facilities over the weekend in Iran. We also saw that giant
cloud of smoke in terror that was going viral and seemed to be kind of the image of this war. There's also the fact that they announced the new supreme leader who is going to be Hamanese son. There's the fact that Trump was then saying that he had opinions on how this regime change would work so that that seemed to be a signal. Oh yeah, they're going after a regime change. Then they kind of pulled back on that. There's the fact that the Red Devil moves was closed.
And then there's also the factors that seem to be bringing prices down, which is that I guess G7 Nation said, "Oh no, we have our own oil anyway, so it's fine." The price action is so temperamental and it's hard to understand exactly what traders and investors are actually reacting to here and therefore which things are actually important for people like us who just live in the US who probably aren't going to get shot down in this war, but will be affected on the consumer side.
“So my question being what exactly have markets been reacting to? I think it's more the first”
part of the factors that you're mentioning. So if this war is extended, if we see no off-ramp for the US and Israel and it has to continue and therefore that choke point stays closed. So at some point we're going to see you're going to see a supply crunch and that's really the major fear. Now the world is over supplied with oil. A major theme really over the last couple of years looking
looking forward, if you look at IAA reports, they had it at 4 million barrels a day. Obviously,
OPEC for years has been constraining its supply and they've reversed some of their cuts over the over the last year. So you're in half or so because they felt that demand was growing in particular in India and other Asian markets. But if you take out 20% of the oil then obviously that's a huge part, that's a huge supply shock. So that's the reaction. So it's a fear that this thing is going to last a long time and now we're seeing messages even just before coming on here. President Trump
“had an interview I believe with CBS, we're saying that the major operations are the large part”
of the war, the war is over with Iran and hence is there an end-in-site and he also I think he mentioned that some ships are starting to come through some supermaps are called the biggest tankers.
If they come through you can basically make a case that there is going to be at least enough
supply to meet demand that a market and hence prices should not be rising at such a rapid pace. But that initial fear, that trigger of fear, that's exactly what it is. The trade has charted everything up. Well he wrote on truth socially, he said quote short-term oil prices which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over is a very small price to pay for USA and the world and the world and safety and peace only fools would think differently.
“I mean I think the big question here is like what will this actually do to the price of gasoline”
in America? I mean we've spoken with experts who said that basically like a $10 increase in the
price of oil, it's going to increase the pump per gallon by around 25 cents. But then the question becomes like well what happens if it goes up by $50 one day, down $50 the next day and keeps on swinging back and forth as we are literally seeing right now. I mean what can you say about what the price of oil will actually do to consume as in America right now? Yeah it's a tough question because it doesn't necessarily oil goes up to 110 and all of a sudden
they go out and change all the signs and you're like you know here you go you're at $2.50 or $2.85 and now you're at $4.50 right? So there's a lag in some of this. I think there's a certain averaging that happens and it's a there's a moving average over a couple of days that they price into the pump because it's a refined product. Yeah this is obviously no huge relief to people who are
Really worried about you know their pocketbook and how much they're you know ...
and life and gas prices are going to go up. It's like a question of like what is the real price
“of oil and what should it be and should it always be stable at like 75 to 80 dollars a barrel”
or that's a fair price or it has a change over time. Right but then how does it affect inflation? It's inflationary. There's no question about that because it rises it increases the cost and the factors in every single input of the economy. Yeah just before we end here I thought on how you do your job as a reporter as a journalist covering this stuff something that I have been struggling with. I can't tell if the markets right now are proactive or reactive. I can't tell
if I'm looking at the price and oil traders are saying this is a reflection of what we expect to happen in the future or if they're completely just something changed someone got shot an oil facility got blown up and now the price of oil is different and so my question to you as a journalist
“who covers this stuff. Are you looking to the price of oil as an indication of what is to come?”
Or do you look at the price of oil and does it simply tell you things that you've already known, things that you've been covering as a journalist on the ground when it comes to what is actually unfolding in this war and in the conflict? It's probably a mix of both right so it has been that geopolitical risk premium has been muted for a long time so there have been certain things that have happened in the Gulf and between the June war expectations where oil should have
increased, it should have popped higher and even the first few days of the strikes in this last week or so we haven't seen a force oil, oil did jump but it didn't jump at the same level. It's that closing that I think a psychological switch happened with with hormones attacks on
oil facilities attacks on processing plants and there was always this understanding in a way
between all of the Gulf countries that you know we're not going to we're not going to hit critical infrastructure the attacks the retaliation from the Iranian regime would be against perhaps US assets, military assets that sort of thing and very quickly the we saw that there was an attack on Rasa Fan which is the the LNG complex in in Qatar there was another one on a processing plant in Bahrain on in a refinery so that that escalated it and then you know as you
mentioned earlier the the the he's we believe is in this really attack on on a refinery in Dahran so when you start hitting the actual you know nuts and bolts of export of crude and and and
“products from that region it I think it rightfully so change changed their trigger there's still”
question and the the Qatari energy minister said over I think on Thursday Friday that he believes that oil can go up to $150 a barrel if this if this continues for a long time there are two the bypass pipelines that I mentioned earlier from the East West line in Saudi Arabia and the
the one that goes a basically north south through through the UAE if those are hit as well then
I could see oil going way back up again because because of this because people would say are they going to be able to get enough oil out to the market yeah if this all ends in March there's a lot of analysis out there that says the oil stays you know within within this range and and and is manageable if it does if if it if it's more prolonged it changes there's also the question of the precedent that's been set and so the Gulf the Arab Gulf states were you know a lot
most of the oil comes out from and we're all the you know the really good facilities are in terms of that export and they have all the ships and all that seven and the customers in Asia now that they've been attacked and attacked repeatedly even if you have a ceasefire some sort of arrangements with the Iranian regime but they still maintain their drone capability their short range
missiles and the mid range missiles that they can they can always play spoiler over any type of
negotiation or any type of changes and that would just bake in a premium into the price so that that's kind of longer term do oil prices remain elevated despite a resolution to this current conflict all right Mohammed Sergei editor at summer four Gulf thank you Mohammed thank you after the break the DOJ settles with live nation and ticket master and for even more
Markets insights you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter simply put at prof...
support for the show comes from vanguard the role of financial advisor is to do everything
you can to set your clients up for success there are plenty of ways you can go about it maybe a leveling up of your fixed income strategy but bonds can be tricky the market is huge
“rate shift and risks hide and plain sight that's why having a partner with scale and expertise matters”
vanguard brings both vanguard bonds are institutional quality institutional quality isn't a tagline it's a commitment to your clients it means top-grade products across the board the lineup includes over 80 bond funds are actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialist analysts and traders a lot of firms love to highlight their star profolio managers like it's all about that one brilliant mind making the magic happen vanguard's philosophy is a little different they
believe the best active strategies shouldn't be locked away with one person they should be shared across the team so if you're looking to give your clients consistent results a year in and you're out go to see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio that's vanguard.com/audio all investing is subject to risk vanguard market incorporation distributor hey keroswisher here i want to let you know that vox media is returning to south by south west in austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast
join us from march 13 through the 15th for live tapings of today explained teffi talks profti markets and of course your two favorite podcasts pivot and on with keroswisher the stage will also feature sessions from bernay brown and adam grant mark has brownlee capley vivian two and robin arson it's all part of the vox media podcast stage of south by south west presented by odo visit voxmedia.com/ssswpreregister and get your special discount on your
“innovation badge that's voxmedia.com/sssw to register really you should register we sell out and we hope”
to see you there after decapitation strikes against Iran's leadership what can we expect next in the escalating world the big question is if there is going to be a next strongman in Iran what kind of strongman will that person likely be i don't think that there's going to be another
powerful cleric supreme leader i'm john finer and i'm jake solubin and we're the host of the long game
a weekly national security podcast this week we sit down with cream sajipor to discuss what to expect in this next phase of the war against Iran the episodes out now search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts we're back with profti markets often just one week in court one of the biggest anti-trust cases in decades is nearing a resolution on Monday the justice department announced a settlement with live nation and ticket master
in the sweeping monopoly case filed in 2024 the dj along with forty state attorneys general argued that live nation legally dominates the market for live events one proposed remedy was to break up live nation and ticket master now under the proposed settlement live nation will pay damages to states and change how it structures ticketing deals with venues but the case is not over yet only ten states have signed on to the settlement or others are expected
to keep fighting plus the terms of the agreement must be approved by a federal judge still shares of live nation rose six percent following the news joining us to discuss this case we're speaking with johnathon canter former assistant attorney general for the anti-trust division of the u_s_ department of justice he's also the man who originally filed this case johnathon thank you for joining us i want to get right into this because
this is a case that you have been talking a lot about uh i remember when we lost spoke i said what
is the most important anti-trust case that no one is talking about and you said this is it
because this is something that really affects consumers consumers really have a stake in this because consumers they know that the price of tickets for live events have gone up significant over the past few years and it's because of this monopoly dynamic are now they're settling this to me seems like a win for live nation but tell us your thoughts what do you make of what's happening sure it is a win for live nation and it's disappointing to the extent that this is
ultimately the settlement that gets approved by the court but as you indicated at we have a situation
“where you have maybe as many as thirty state attorneys general as of today i think twenty seven”
who are not going to settle they want to continue trying this case and so i'm encouraged by the willingness of the states by partisan group of states to fight for what they believe is right
Also to your point this is probably the most popular anti-trust case in histo...
regarded as um beneficial um to an issue that affects so many consumers uh and performers
“on an issue that they care deeply about which is live music and an error where affordability is”
top of mine for pretty much anyone it strikes me as politically um um deficient or um political suicide to settle a case like this let's put it this way breaking up live nation ticket master is more popular in this country than breaking up Iran it's definitely true just in terms of what anti-drust officials have said here i'm trying to understand why they have settled here because as you say this is not a popular move uh people are not going to like this i don't like it i don't see
what i mean if the if the option was to break this company up another decided to settle and that's
good for good for live nation that isn't seem great for consumers and then the question becomes like
why did they settle uh and perhaps it's because there was some lobbying happening here i mean gale slato is the the anti-drust chief before she was just dismissed she was outstead like why are we settling with live nation if it's so unpopular there are whole host of questions that have to get answered here and then hopefully we'll get answered but the fact of the matter is the DOJ started the trial and after four days the case was going extremely well by all accounts the
DOJ was doing an extremely good job in court and was on a trajectory to have a big victory if they finished the trial to attend um and that was an extraordinary case with an opportunity
for extraordinary result and when you're a winning you don't pull the plug it's not how that works
right especially when you don't get the remedy that you ask for when you file the case which in this case in this instance was a breakup so it's quite unclear and raises a lot of questions about when and why and how and who and um hopefully we'll get answers to the question of those questions because under something a little known statute called the Toney Act antitrust settlements like this one have to get approved and investigated by the court and so in this
instance the judge in New York will have the opportunity to interrogate the settlement and actually get discovery from the Department of Justice and live nation and others about what was said to whom what was promised is in exchange for this deal just in terms of what it looks like to me I mean we had gale slater in who you and I discussed was actually someone who was going to be pretty
“tough on antitrust it was quite a good pick if you are pro antitrust which you are and I think”
we are on this show as well so it looks like what happened is that she was working on this we also learned that there was a lot of lobbying happening where people from live nation also from uh he looked packer and juniper they would go to the DOJ and they would try to create these affiliations with the DOJ and if they got any pushback what we see was pan bondy or someone higher up in the administration would say to gale slater hey get out of the way here because we are you're
being too harsh on these companies and we have a relationship with these companies which is in one sense lobbying and someone also characterise that as some level of corruption that's certainly a genuine question then gale slater gets ousted then this case that was seems to have a lot of momentum suddenly the plug is pulled why did that happen who knows my question to you it appears that this was a result of lobbying on some level of honestly corruption or maybe that word is too
harsh is there any evidence that isn't what happened here there's a lot of smoke and in terms of the lobbying they reportedly hired killing and Conway to argue on their behalf and engage in a whole lobbying campaign and closing up to the administration and so there is a lot of smoke whether there's a fire or whether something inappropriate was done only time will tell hopefully time will
“let us know for sure but that's why we have the toney act which was enacted when Nixon”
Richard Nixon actually cut a deal to settle on an nitrous case because of promise for political donations and so the act was created after that to make sure that settlements were actually in the public interest and done for the right reasons so hopefully we're going to get some answers to those questions but right now there's a lot of smoke and a lot of concern because they had this great case they were in trial they were doing a great job and they were on trajectory to get a
very very big outcome and now they're settling on the sheet uh John Newman who's a former senior anti-truster official he said quote you really couldn't send a clearer message that anti-trust
Is dead at the federal level then settling this particular case do you agree ...
feels that way today um when you have 27 state attorneys general from all sides of the political continuum and filing a motion in court saying that they were not only um cut out of the discussions but don't think that the settlement is sufficient and want to go ahead and litigate that paints a picture that anti-trust is alive and well the states the laboratories of democracy
“and not doing so well the federal level. All right John I think count to a former assistant attorney”
general for the anti-trust division of the U.S. Department of Justice Jonathan thank you this seems like a story that is not getting enough attention maybe for real reasons but it's certainly
something we want to keep tracking. Thanks as always I agree to be here.
If you listen to yesterday's episode with me in Scott you might have noticed it sounded a little bit out of debt and you would be correct we recorded that episode just before the weekend when market still hadn't priced in the possibility that this war could get out of control oil prices were nowhere near as high as they reached over the weekend and the stock market at the time was still pretty stable and that was the debate that Scott and I were having. I believe
“that markets were underreacting to what was happening in Iran Scott believed that the markets”
were roughly getting it right that the region was perhaps more stable now that we had taken out the Iatola versus less stable I disagreed and that was the conversation you heard. Well over the weekend everything changed. Israel carried out more asteroids they hit several oil facilities Iran tried to retaliate and then they announced their new supreme leader who was wait for it coming a use sun which essentially means that this war is far from over it's probably going to get worse
and so markets finally reacted oil hit $19 per barrel stocks fell nearly 2% erasing six trillion
dollars in value globally. Now it's possible that the markets are now overreacting and indeed the price of oil came back down again but I would argue that this reaction is actually appropriate in last week investors were unwilling to acknowledge how bad this could really get they were unwilling to recognize how clumsy this operation really was and now they are starting to have to contend with reality a bit and they're pricing in what is probably a more accurate reflection
of the instability that we are about to face and the question then becomes are they pricing in all of it or are they still putting their blinders on. Now I'm not totally sure but I would
argue there are plenty of questions that the market and investors still haven't answered here.
They're beginning to answer the oil question which is what happens if the straight-of-haul moves continues to be affected but there are plenty of other questions here what happens to American consumers if the price of gas hits for even $5 a dollar. What if that causes inflation to rise back up above 3%. What happens if the Fed then decides to raise rates because of inflation but then we're dealing with the double-ammy of a worsening labor market and higher prices. In
other words what happens if this leads to stagnation and then what happens if the stagnation creates a recession or perhaps even a depression what happens if the war isn't contained as they promised and if it escalates beyond the region what happens if China gets ripped in and they decide to say support Iran or if they decide to strike Taiwan while they're all distracted what happens if Russia strikes NATO for all the same reasons and what if this leads to a nuclear detonation
and to be clear that's not likely but it is possible. According to the prediction markets last week the odds of that happening in 2026 were 24%. We could argue that the prediction markets batches are stupid, they're misinformed, they don't know what they're talking about. Maybe that's true
“but let's also remember that we are the same people that have pointed out that over the medium”
in the long term the prediction markets have tended to be pretty accurate so what is it are they dumb or are they smart? What do we think? These are the questions we have to start taking very seriously. It's not enough to just trust that America is going to work it all out or that the government's going to work it all out or the president or Wall Street if we want to understand our situation it is on us to understand it. It is our job to look at this issue from
Every angle and to figure out what it actually means for us how it might affe...
what we will be doing on this show over the next several weeks. Tomorrow we will have a panel
“where we will discuss these issues will probably have more discussions after that and I have also just”
written an article on what has happened in Iran which you can read on my substack right now but let's
be very clear. This is big and fortunately for my sanity the markets are finally agreeer.
“Okay that's it for today. This episode was produced by Clay Miller and Alison Weiss”
edited by Joel Passen and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams,
our research team is Dan Chilon, Isabella Kensel, Cristina Donahue, and Mesa Vario and our social
“producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Proftly Markets from Proftly Media. If you like”
what you heard, give us a follow, I'm Ed Alison, I will see you tomorrow. For one year, in one package to a fixed price. So let's talk about 75% cost approval and there are every time flexible. Now let's talk about stepstown.de/alljobs. Stepstown easy to find the real talent for all jobs. And what's your Grund? Find it and let's dig neither in Praxonland.
More Infos unterlastichnida.de
