Wall Street Is Pumping SpaceX — So Why Is It Falling?

May I suggest your big wireless bill? It's got suspense, mystery, and slightly flat.

“A emotional arc and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time.”

Fortunately though, mint story is better. Every plan $15 a month. Even unlimited. That's it. Happy ending. Zero tears. Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. A friend payment of $45 for D-months, $90, $6, $1, 180 dollars for 12-month plan required, $15 per month equivalent to Texas and P-Z extra. Initial plan for money greater than 50 gigabytes

low in at work as busy C-Terms. If you sit in the sun, you may just get burned. But some people are willing to take that chance. There is this certain degree of nihilism of like, "Oh, well the world is bad anyway, why would it I just also get a tan, tan maxing?" That's this week unexpleted to me. Find new episodes wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to Prof G-Markets. Scott is off today, but we have got a very, very special guest filling in. Someone who a lot of you guys have been very excited about. The one-and-one Lee Patrick Boyle is joining us Patrick. Great to see you. Hello, thank you for having me on as a fill-in ball guy for the channel. It's funny. Last time we had Robert Armstrong, who is the fan of Times Commentator,

also bald, also very smart, also very insightful. So clearly there's a theme going on here, but we love it. Good to see you. How are you? Great thanks. How are you? I'm doing very well. I'm very glad you're here. We're recording this before the England game.

“For the World Cup, which I'm very excited about, but are you supporting anyone in the World Cup?”

I mean, your accent is Irish. So I have to assume that maybe you wouldn't want England to win, like where do you stand on this? The way it works in Ireland is that we don't acknowledge sports that we're not good at. So if we were in and doing well, it would be huge, but we just view it as a

foreign sport that's, you know, it's not worth watching. So what are the sports then? It's basically

just rugby. Rugby is acceptable, but then there's also GAA football, which is better. We've got her laying, you know, we've got all of our own sports. We don't need your sports, you know. You've got your own things going on. They need to participate in all of the, all of the popular sports sports that matter, but I want, I want continue down that path. Just for everyone who doesn't know Patrick is a professor at King's College London and a portfolio manager with more than 20

years of experience. Many of you probably know him from his YouTube channel, Patrick Boyle, on finance, Patrick, breaks down these very complex topics in a very simple, understandable way and we just love his insights. And he became our favorite person to discuss SpaceX with and

“we will be discussing it again today. Just before we get into the show, Patrick, I think a lot of”

people are like dying to know your origin story, how you ended up becoming this superstar YouTuber, but also professor of finance, like how did you get into this stuff? You know, a lot of it, I was just asked to teach at originally Queen Mary and then King's College and, you know,

I teach the masters in finance students and then I sort of always liked cameras and things like that

and so I started, you know, students will come to with questions. I'll say, you know, can you explain that again? And I just hope it's easier to record it and be able to send that to the students. Wow. And that then turned into a whole YouTube thing. So that's very interesting. Yes, Scott often says that being his history of being a professor was kind of a cheat code because he got to test out his material on his students. And then if the students like it, then he'll take it to the

public, they'll take it to the big leagues and talk about it on TV. Clearly works, clearly it's a good system. So let's get into this today. We've got three very interesting stories. We're going to be talking about SpaceX. We'll be talking about what's happening in the crypto markets, something that a lot of people are now calling the great rotation. We will be explaining exactly what that means. And then we will be ending with a little breakdown on what is happening in the housing markets,

newsflash, prices are not going down. So let's start with SpaceX. Last week, SpaceX officially joined the Nat Stack 100. It qualified under the new fast track

the minimum public float requirement. That same day, the stock received an overwhelming vote of confidence from Wall Street with 18 out of 19 analysts publishing a buy rating and only one

“publishing a hold rating, which was quite surprising to me. I mean, as I think a lot of people know,”

I think that the stock is way of a value. I know other people think that too. I believe Patrick believes as well, but we'll get his official views in just a moment. Despite all of that positive momentum, both those ratings from Wall Street and also its inclusion in the Nasdaq, which essentially meant billions of dollars of passive investment, which should prop up the stock price. Despite that, SpaceX shares fell nearly 6%. And at the time of this recording, the stock is now down 13%

over the past week and 34% from its peak. So despite all of that positive influence, things that should really be raised in the stock price, the stock continues to fall. And it's

now trading below where it was on its opening day when it first IPO. So Patrick, I guess let's just

start with your reactions to how the stock has traded over the past week two weeks. It hasn't been

“great. What do you make it was happening here? I mean, the truth is it's above the IPO price. Like”

if you put in for the IPO, you got it at 135, you're pretty happy with the return. And it's sort of in line with what you get from IPOs. There's I forget the name of the researcher, but there's a I can't think of it now. But there's a guy who's an expert on this and he's done all the research and it shows the typically IPOs jump about 18%, which was right in line with what SpaceX did. Now, the thing is if you bought it on the day of the release, you were buying post-pop, right?

I think it hit the market, maybe it's on like 165 or something like that. So most people who didn't

get a fill and bought it at the market open, they'll be down on it. But the truth is, it's trading

at a very high valuation, and if you invested in it, you can't really claim to be too surprised. And you've probably done all right out of that. Just to break down the dynamics here, as you say, the IPO price was 135 and the IPO price was the price that was allocated to the insiders, people who had access to the IPO. But if you are a retail investor, if you were just buying it on Robin Hood or whatever your trading platform is, the lowest price you could have gotten in at

was what it was when it immediately went out, which was 150 and we're down from that price point. In other words, as we kind of predicted, everyone who bought this as a retail investor has thus far lost money. They're all down. And the guys who bought it when it was going close to 200, those guys are really down at this point, which is kind of what we all expected, and it's certainly

what you talked about as well. So just looking at the valuation now, they did a little over $19 billion

in revenue in the past 12 months, so they're trading at 101 times sales, which is already quite absurd, and you've pointed that out. But then we get the price targets from Wall Street. And I'm just going to read out these price targets. And I want you to react to them. So Goldman Sachs is price target for SpaceX. This is what they think the stock should be trading at. Their price target is $205 a share. So that is a $2.7 trillion market cap that implies a 139

x price to sales multiple. JP Morgan, 225 that implies a $2.9 trillion market cap trading at more than a hundred and fifty times sales. Deutsche Bank says $255. That's more than $3 trillion in market cap, a hundred and seventy three times sales. Morgan Stanley, $300 nearly $4 trillion market cap, more than 200 times sales. Here's the best one though. Raymond James, that price target is $800 a share, $10.4 trillion market cap, and implied price to sales multiple are $542.

“What the hell? I mean, you have to wonder if they build spreadsheets to justify this,”

so they just pulled out the numbers. Because, you know, to people at home who aren't familiar necessarily with these ratios, like nothing trades at a hundred times sales, like it doesn't happen. And the kind of thing that even could potentially trade at a very high price to sales ratio would be

like where there's no real cost. There's massive massive costs here. There's the cost of the rockets, you know, but that's not really what SpaceX claims to do anymore. It's an AI company, so it's the cost of all of those in video GPUs and whatever, you know, they're burning. I think about

$5 billion a quarter, so I mean, it's not just losing money. It's losing a shocking amount of money,

and you're really paying up as if, well, it would be hard to justify paying a hundred times. Because if you think about it, if all of the sales passed straight through as profit, you're still do want to pay a hundred times, you know, a hundred years worth of profits for the

“next year's profit. Like you have to wait a hundred years to get your money back. It doesn't”

make sense, you know, 300 years to get your money back. It's getting wilder. And then, of course, to the listeners who are going, oh, but what about growth, you know, because of course, the revenues should be growing, and hopefully will eventually become profitable. It's not really growing that much either. I think it's, you know, SpaceX is a growth rate of around 15%, which compares to when Google went public at, I think, 10 times sales, maybe it was less.

Google was growing about 200% a year, right? So it's sort of an ex-growth company that's putting itself forward as an AI, primarily an AI, and in fact, enterprise AI business. When they're not really much of an AI company, I think they've got a 3.5% market share. So it's, you know, it's just hype-based. And in truth, even, why did it fall once it hit the Nasdaq index inclusion? Well, but a lot of people were buying for that park, you know, and so to a certain extent, you know,

the thing everyone is waiting for has happened now. Like, I mean, what's the next? What's the next hype? Like, what's going to be so exciting? Like, something's going to have to dramatically

“increase growth, or, you know, you have to have another mass of forced buyer out there. So”

hearing all of that, and I appreciate you putting into context. What it actually means to trade

it a hundred times sales. Like, yeah, what we're basically saying is that you got to make your

money back on the earnings. What don't you even talk about earnings? We're talking about the top line. So we're just ignoring the costs here, which kind of begs a question, like, how on earth are these Wall Street analysts justifiably setting these price targets? And I just want to get into some of the details that we got from the Raymond James research report on SpaceX. This is the one that their analyst Brian Gasswale, who set the price target at $800. I'm just going to give you some

of the data points or his projections that how he justifies that valuation. So he estimates

“that SpaceX revenue will rise from $19 billion last year to $5.2 trillion by 2035.”

That's his estimate. He says that 94% of that revenue will come from AI. In other words, he thinks that SpaceX is going to generate $4.9 trillion in AI revenue in 2035. He says, quote, we see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century, just as railroads electric grids and the internet reshaped prior economic eras, we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity. So he's comparing it to railroads,

electric grid, internet chips. Essentially a bunch of things that were bubbles that all blew up. Like, you know, it's a lot like investing in railway a couple of hundred years ago and how did that work? Or the dot com bubble is now what they call the dot com bubble. So it's a lot like many bubbles in the past in that the price could go up before it finds, you know, before gravity has its effect. That's a very good point. I was going to make the point that if you look at

all of those industries and the biggest companies at their peaks, you look at US steel at its peak, it was worth six percent of US GDP for Cisco. It was worth five and a half percent of US GDP. You make a good point. They've since come way down. If SpaceX were to hit a 10 trillion dollar

valuation, which is what Heath believes this company is worth, it would be equal to a third of the

entire GDP of America, which to me doesn't really make much sense at all. But if you think through what would the other AI companies be worth? Because this is the smallest one. This is three and a half percent market share. Like, you don't want to own space. You know, the reason they have to say

is the satellites, the satellite internet thing. But that can only grow so much, right? It's only ever going to get so big. So you can't justify its current trillion plus dollar valuation on satellite internet. The rocket launch business, you know, it's worth noting that that loses money and that most of the launches are launching their own satellites. So when people even point out that the satellites are profitable and the launches are unprofitable. That's sort of like

McDonald's saying, well, we're profitable on the Hamburgers, but we're losing money on the bonds. It's like aren't they tied together? Yes, I'm sorry for a good analogy. Look, maybe they should up the price. They charge their biggest customer. Then the whole thing will be profitable. Just going through some more of these analysts because to be clear, Raymond James isn't alone. This is this is basically the entirety of Wall Street that is in agreement on this.

Deutsche Bank said the SpaceX is, quote, the apex of civilization ambition. They said the company is quote, bending the arc of history. Shaping Morgan said SpaceX is, quote, potential impact on humanity is bigger than any companies we've ever seen. Morgan Stanley called it the final frontier of AI.

“I think the report was called the apex of civilization, the ambition, you know, which I looked at”

like other Morgan Stanley reports like the one on X and mobile or the one on, you know, many

the other companies that we think about. They never, they never add such drama, you know, like they

put the guy with the Hawaiian shirt analyzing this and he comes out with a title like that, you know? And I think the only other real company covers his Tesla, it's working on things. Yeah, exactly. Which is crazy. And by the way, just when we look at that price target, I was looking into that Morgan Stanley report. So their price target, the best they have set is $300. So again, that's like double where we are now. They say that the bull case on the high end, the target

is 600 dollars. Yeah, I guess there's a standard deviation around that, right? Right. But then on the other side of it, they say that the bear case is $75. There's quite a skewed distribution.

It could fall 50%, but it could also rise 300%. So you're basically not telling us anything.

I mean, it's a car option, basically, right? Like it's, yeah, exactly. So when we were talking about this offline, you made a really interesting comparison to something that happened in the dot com bubble with this guy named Henry Blodgett. Could you just explain what the story is there and how it might have parallels to today? This is quite a famous story. Wasn't just Henry Blodgett, but he was sort of the most, the biggest example. He was the internet analyst at Maryland

at the time. And basically, after the dot com bubble burst, there were a few investigations. They found that many of the analysts were privately sending emails describing companies as POS, you know, which we'll work out with that means. While publicly going on TV and really like bullying them up and saying that they were the greatest companies ever. And so Henry Blodgett,

“I think he was hit with a $4 million fine. He was, he was banned from the securities industry.”

He since went on, he's now, I think he founded business insider. So he's gone on to be a success. But during then, in what was in 2002, Sarabaine's Oxley was passed. And there were regulations put in place because they basically said that what was happening at the banks was that, you know, the banks were making a lot of money, IPOing, all of these internet companies. And it was sort of tied into, like, you know, which bank will I lead the IPO? Well, the one with the analyst,

he'll say the most good things about the company, right? We need to get the price up. And I think even back then, IBD, the investment banking division got to put in as to how much of a bonus the analysts would get. So that was all separated. You know, investment banking couldn't influence, you know, research reports after that, or at least that was the idea.

“But it's worth noting that SpaceX, which, you know, they raised how much did they raise in the IPO?”

Was it 85, 85 billion? There's a research report out from a guy called, he's got a subsdeck called

Cape Fair Capital. And he dug through that IPO prospectus and very carefully added up all the

it's sources and uses of funds, like, why are you raising this money? What do you need it for?

And it was all spread out, like, not very clear at all. But he added it all up.

“And I think he worked out that they need 235 billion dollars in spend between now and 20”

30. So four and a half years. So that actually means, if you're working at, you know, Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley, any of the big investment banks, that that Elon will be decide, you know, they need to raise capital, they'll be asking the banks to raise that capital, banks charge about, you know, a 1% fee. I think they charge less for SpaceX because it was so big. But there's big fees in the pipeline. And if your analyst says that this is a PRS,

you know, you might not get that call from Elon. So it could be expensive to say the wrong thing. Now, you know, we believe that the banks are not supposed to be doing that anymore. You know, and it's reasonable, maybe they just pick like the biggest Elon fanboys to analyze his stocks, because otherwise, you know, I don't know that I would get a job as the Tesla analyst, for example, you know, should this go badly, which it's reasonable to think it could.

I imagine, you know, that many of these people, you know, if you're on the index inclusion committee at Nasdaq, or if you're, you know, one of the bankers who claim that it's going to be trading at a astronomical level, the likes, no company ever has before, you know, you may get a nice day out in Washington while you attend some sort of congressional investigation into your work. I would say hold on to your spreadsheets, you know, and don't delete, or no do delete some emails,

“maybe. I mean, I think it's such an important point because, I mean, what we saw with the dot”

con bubble and what we learned is that there is structurally a conflict of interest embedded into equity research. And that is if you say something bad about a company, if you say that a company is a sell rating, then it's unlikely that the company will be interested in working with you to underwrite your IPO through which you would receive your 1%. And if they're going to be raising

$230 billion over the next four years, that's more than $20 billion in fees. And it is literally

the banks job to figure out how to make sure that they can go out, pursue that deal, underwrite these equity offerings, maybe underwrite some debt offerings, maybe underwrite some M&A transactions, and pick up those fees. And so Elon is naturally going to choose whichever bank is nice to him, and we literally saw this exact same thing play out when there was the dot con crash. So there was, as you say, Henry Blodgett, Merrill Lynch, he writes this exceedingly positive research and all of

these different internet companies, he privately calls those same stocks, POS's pieces of shit, junk to his colleagues in private emails, and it ended up being that that was sort of what

“got him because it's illegal to publish research that isn't your genuine opinion. That's how they”

got him. And deeply unethical as well, even if we step outside the legality, I mean, what do you do? I don't know to me, it's just such awful behavior. 100%. And we saw it, but he was not the only guy. I mean, this was a problem across the industry. There was another example of an analyst at Salinasmith Bonny. He said this company was a buy. He had privately called it a pig in an email to colleagues. And then there was another internal email that was sent by a Merrill Lynch

employee. They said, quote, this guy had come to sense his clearly. He said, quote, we are losing people money, and I don't like it. John and Mary Smith are losing their retirement just because we don't want an investment bank and client to be mad at us. So this is like a thin in the industry. It's a problem. Yeah. And as a result, we saw this regulation that was designed to prevent this stuff from happening. There was Sabine's Oxley, and there was also the global research

analyst settlement, which I've been digging into since you brought a lot of this to my attention.

And this was basically this agreement that was the SEC came up with in 2003 that was designed to

completely separate the research side of the investment banks from the investment banking divisions whose job is to go out and get those underwriting fees. And they literally said, you cannot communicate with each other unless you have like a shaperone who's going to sort of oversee all of this stuff and make sure that you guys aren't kind of meddling with each other. We're going to make sure that the research guys have zero compensation tied to whatever happens in the

research analyst settlement. Something I learned last night is that seven months ago

“that law was terminated by the SEC. I was not aware of that, but that that is interesting. Yeah.”

Yeah. This is the headline of press release. SEC agrees to terminate global research analyst settlement. And right after that happened, author Levitt, who's the former SEC chair, he wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, quote, "The SEC may make Wall Street analysts corrupt again." And he warned about the dangers of getting rid of this stuff. The argument that they have proposed as to why it's okay to get rid of this is because they say

that we have new regulations that already do the job of what that old regulation did. But if you

actually look into those regulations, what you learn is that it's kind of does the job

but way weaker, way more flexible. The communications restrictions are, you know, kind of Lucy

“Goosey, the requirements on third party research independent verification. Those are virtually gone.”

And the former SEC chair said quote, "Don't be fooled by the promise that other regulations provide this separation. Financial regulators are floating the removal of quiet periods restricting when analysts can publish research on their own. Banks transactions, this is the natural pattern of regulatory surrender." So this sort of learning about this won't go. I feel like this might be an explanation to what's happening, not accusing anyone of anything,

but it seems striking, no? It's pretty wild. It's funny because even without this rule being changed, there's sort of just a general issue that if you work at one of the top investment banks that's really hoping to bring in billions of dollars in IPO fees that it would be a career limiting move to put out a sell reporter to say anything bad about these businesses. So there's sort of corrupting influence in there anyhow. And you know, when you look at the list of analysts,

like, you know, I'm not familiar with that many of them, but you know, you kind of look at the CVs online, like there, it looks to me like some of the banks weren't recruiting at the circus, rather than at Harvard Business School in order to hire some of these people in.

Well, just looking at the underwriters of the SpaceX IPO is basically everyone. I mean Goldman Sachs,

Morgan Stanley, Jamie Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Raymond James, like everyone who is putting a buy on this thing that they all had a financial incentive within the bank. So it seems hard to assume it's anything other than that and just going back to like the dot com bubble. When you look at mid 2000, you look at all the recommendations on the stock research. 74% of stocks had a buy recommendation only 2% had sell, which it kind of makes me think that if there's ever some IPO boom,

which there is happening now, it automatically or if ever there is, you know, more deal making on the table, it incentivizes the entirety of Wall Street to suddenly say these stocks are great. And if they all say these stocks are great at the same time, then we start getting into bubble territory now. Yeah, well, it's funny because, you know, the IPO business was huge in the late 1990s, then the dot com bubble burst and, you know, stock issuance really dried up. There was sort of

there've been a bunch of articles about, sort of almost where all the stocks gone, right, because you had companies been taken private, you these unicorns that were, you know, worth billions of dollars and private. And there was an argument that the public are not getting stocks to invest in, you know, there's a smaller and smaller group. And so now we flipped, you know, suddenly IPOs are back, but it's rather interesting to see the other echo of the past as well, which is,

you know, questionable recommendations coming out of research at the banks that are probably hoping to get, you know, IPD business. Yes, it's fewer IPOs than we saw before, but the size of the IPOs are gigantic and what do you know? The ones where the size of the IPOs gigantic, those are the ones where all of Wall Street is unanimous in his view that this is a buy. And not just IPOs also

“like secondary offerings, right, because even I think Google issued a huge amount of stock recently”

raising more capital than SpaceX raised in their IPO, you know, so there's a bunch of big technology firms at the moment that it's probably wise to keep happy if you're hoping to participate in those flows. To what extent do you worry that this is causing like a real systemic

It's an interesting thing, because I think that while, you know, there's a lot of crazy stuff,

“I also think there's a lot of people talking about it, you know, it's not, I don't know, like any”

sophisticated investor I speak to, like they're not really suckered into sort of thinking that these things are been issued at bargain-based prices. And, you know, the FT in the Wall Street Journal are filled with opinion pieces of people worrying about, you know, concentration and technology and the high prices and, you know, what, what if all of this stuff goes wrong? So I'm, I'm torn, like I do think there's possibly a retail audience who haven't sort of been through this already and they don't

recognize, you know, what a really hot market sometimes looks like, but, you know, I'm torn, like, I do think, and especially nowadays, you know, where people get their information, like back in the '90s, you know, those analysts were all over CNBC all day long and also everyone, like the dot com bubble had everyone involved, like you'd be down at your dentist's office and they'd be

“talking about stocks, you know? It's not really the same today, and I think also the analysts”

don't have the power they used to have. So, to a certain extent, I view it as embarrassing, like I always

think like for these guys, like, and, you know, maybe you can't pick enough bonuses that who cares, but I just sort of think, gosh, wouldn't it be embarrassing, like, in years time, you know, you're a part of these new people, like, you're the guy who said 300, is that what you said? It's a really interesting change, or it's like, they're saying the same things that they said back in '99, but this time around people are informed enough to say, well, that's a fucking joke,

that doesn't make any sense. I do wonder if maybe we're seeing almost like a bifurcation of the suckers versus the non-suckers, maybe there's one part of the market where the bubble's really working, because people are actually listening to the $800 price target, and they're really

“believing it, and maybe there's another part of the market who listens to Patrick Boyle and watch”

his Patrick Boyle's YouTube videos, they see those price targets, and they say, that doesn't make any sense, and that itself is an entirely different ecosystem, and it's a good point, maybe that is sort of the downside protection in this bubble, maybe maybe you're single-handedly preventing the bubble. Well, I don't know, I also think that people kind of do what they're going to do anyhow, like, you know, you can tell people something's about financial, you know, you can hang big signs

outside of Casino telling people, you know you'll lose all of your money here, and they kind of go, oh, that's other people, not me, you know, I feel lucky today, so. We'll be right back after the break, and if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend, and please follow us on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Support for the show comes from Vanta. Every new tool your team signs up for,

every vendor that turns on AF features, every new integration has a chance for something to go wrong, and most security programs weren't built for AF's base or growth, enter Vanta. Vanta is the number one authentic Trust Platform used by over 16,000 fast moving companies, including ramp,

cursor, and Harvey, to ensure they're always audit-ready. And now, Vanta is helping companies

like yours, watch for the risks that show between all that's across your vendors, your AI tools, and your entire environment. How? The Vanta Agent Network works like a 24/7 GRC engineer in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, and cutting vendor assessment time by up to 50%. Whether you're a fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta is here to help automate your security and compliance and earn and prove trust. Get started today at vanted.com/markets.

That's VANTA.com/markets. Support for the show comes from Z biotics. After a night out on the town, your body just can't bounce back like it used to. It seems like you're forced to choose between a great night or a great next day, well that can change with pre-alcohol. Z biotics pre-alcohol probiotic drink is the world's

first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings

after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic bi-product in the gut. It's a buildup of this bi-product, not dehydrations to blame, for rough days after drinking. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break this bi-product down. Just remember

tomorrow. With pre-alcohol, you don't need to choose between a fun evening and a great next day,

especially when July is packed with barbecues, fireworks, lake weekends and late nights with friends. Keep the good times rolling into the next day, drink pre-alcohol before you go out and wake up

“ready for whatever Sunday brings. Remember to head to zbiotics.com/prophg and use the code”

Prophg@checkout for 15% off. Support for the show comes from framer. If your team wants a website that looks and feels handcrafted, but is still fast to ship, framer is built for that. You design on a visual canvas with responsive layouts, hosting, and a CMS built in, so the work is production ready from day one. Agents work alongside you to draft pages and polish sections, then you review

and publish what goes live. Framer is the pro side builder for creators, teams, and businesses

that want a professional site and care enough to get every detail right. Agents solve the gap between AI-generated ideas and production-ready website work. The agent works in the same place with a real side-as-design, managed-reviewed, and published. It lands on the canvas, stays editable, and can be published when the team is ready. Agents and framer work alongside teams to streamline collaboration on the same canvas, build custom code components created, manage CMS content, optimize SEO settings,

and ship everything all in one place. Learn how you can get more out of your site from a framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/markets for 30% off of framer.pro annual plan. That's framer.com/markets for 30% off. Framer.com/markets rules and restrictions may apply. We're back with Profge Markets. There is an interesting trend that we have been monitoring, and which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago in my newsletter, Simply Putt. We're starting to

see a rotation out of crypto, which has been hit very hard over the past year. Ethereum is down 33%, Bitcoin's down 42%. As some of the people driving that rotation are the crypto-brows themselves, meanwhile AI has become the new frontier. It is the technology people are most excited about, and it has captured the same sense of disruption and possibility that crypto wants represented. And it has been on a tear. The round-hilled generative AI ETF is up 48% year-to-date.

The Philadelphia semiconductor ETF is up 75% year-to-date. So here's the thesis. The same investors who once chased crypto as the groundbreaking technology are now moving towards AI as the next big thing. And perhaps that makes plain why crypto is performing so badly. Patrick I mentioned Ethereum and Bitcoin, which are not doing well, Bitcoin's been cut in half since its peak. Also the meme coins are way down. I should just point out Dogecoin, which was all the rage.

Right past COVID, it's down 47% in the past year. Trump coin is, of course, down 81% in the past year.

“It's down, I think, almost 99% from its highs. What do you make of how crypto is performing?”

The once very hot asset class, which is now looking not so hot. Well, it's my opinion that there's no analysis you can do on crypto. You can't sort of sit down and build any sort of pricing model on it because it just sort of has a price driven by what people will pay for it.

And basically it's only selling point is that the line is going up. And basically what gets

people, it's how people want to buy crypto because they know someone who bought it for a, you know, a dollar and now it's worth 50 years, 60,000 dollars. And they sort of say, you know, that will happen again, but for me. And so it's really just a very trend-based asset. You know, now you look at it. And you know, over the last few years, I mean, you know, an index tracker that your grandfather invests in is out performing Bitcoin. It's no longer exciting. Like,

“because even I think some of these investments are things that people want to talk about when they're”

at a bar or at a party, you know, oh, I bought this thing and it's up huge. Well, now, you know, you say you own Bitcoin, you're not really exciting. It's also, it was like an anti-establishment thing. It's not as anti-establishment. You know, we've got like politicians all involved in it. The SEC guy is a crypto bro. You know, it's, what's this name, Howard Luthnic is a crypto bro. Like, I mean, you know, this is not all of Epstein Island, we're involved, you know?

It's just, no, it's not exciting to see you doing this, you know? And so, you know, if I don't know if you want to be exciting, you know, probably saying that you're making exciting bets on polymarket

it's, you know, to say that your crypto investor today is going to put people to sleep. And so I wonder if there just is, you know, I think a few people have been calling it the great rotation, you know, where if you're a crypto bro, you're moving into AI into prediction markets, into, into just something that kind of seems exciting to you.

“Yeah, I think the, the anti-establishment point is very important point because, I mean,”

crypto was the cool kid. It was the cool kid in town. And part of why it was cool was because one, its price was going up, so everyone wanted it, so it felt exciting. Two, it had sort of like a technological, like, financially forward feel to it, and three, it was anti-establishment, it was punk rock, it was sort of sticking it to the man. Now, it's the teacher's pet because President Trump loves it and President Trump is the crypto president, so all of that punk rock

feel has evaporated. And at the same time, if you have no fundamentals, the only thing that makes it cool, and I think cool is the right word here, is the price. And so now it's lost the one thing that made it cool, which was the line going up. It also lost the anti-establishment thing. And if you

“have no fundamentals, if you have no underlying cash flows, then there is no floor of value.”

Yeah, and all the claims of use cases have evaporated as well, like it just, you know, no one is really telling me that I'm going to throw, you know, a chamat, a few years ago, a send a visa was going to go to zero because of crypto. And it's like, well, things like this just fine, you know, the crypto is performed like when the chamat spaks on social. Just looking at what's actually

happened, so I went through the Bitcoin numbers, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $8 billion in outflows in the

past eight weeks alone. Crypto since its peak has lost $2.3 trillion in market value, the entire crypto industry has essentially been cut in half. And it does seem like the new heart thing now, if you're a crypto bro, if you're looking for those crazy lines going up, is AI specifically,

“kind of these more niche AI names, these semi-conductor names, Western digital, bloom energy,”

almost 200% here today. It's C gate, sand disc. These are sort of the sexy new trades. And in addition, what we are starting to see is a huge amount of leverage being taken on to buy these stocks. And we're seeing a massive up to, you're delivering ETFs, exactly. Yeah. The levity ETFs, which are becoming very, very hot right now, more than 200 levity ETFs have been launched over the past six months. Now worth more than $150 billion. I mean, this has a perfect analogy to Bitcoin,

because of course we also know about Bitcoin that almost 70% of the Bitcoin trading volume last year were these perpetual futures. These kind of levied up options contracts. It seems like now they've just switched over to the other side. I guess what does that say about the investment community that we're basically just yoloing into these stocks without I assume really looking at

what they're even doing or what the fundamentals even are? I guess this is always life though is that,

you know, people are always excited about whatever they, you know, the average investor hugely underperformed the stock market. And this is well known, because they always buy the wrong stuff at the top, they liquidate at the bottom. They, you know, it's the switches that kind of held them, but this is just like your emotions as an investor are your enemy. Like the more the more emotion the more strongly you feel, whether it's a fear or excitement, these are emotions that are

leading you in the wrong direction. But this is just the oldest story in markets is just that most investors, it's not just that they underperformed, but that they lose more money than is even naturally explainable by the returns in the market. You mentioned when we were speaking offline this this term, I forget who came up with it, but this term financial nihilism that is becoming kind of pervasive. Oh yes, that's a Dimitri Caféness, the guy who came up with that idea is a very interesting

guy. Yeah, what is, what does that mean? Well it's based around this idea that there's a lot of young dissolution people and they sort of feel they can't afford a house, they, you know, are not getting

the kind of jobs they wanted, a list of difficulties, you know, and they basically want to reach

masses of money through, basically an all-in-gambal on something, mean stocks, be crypto, be it,

you know, Nvidia doesn't matter what it is, but it's just this y'all a idea of where they've decided that nothing matters, all the numbers are made up, it's all a con, and you just have to look

“after yourself, you have to make a big bed on something, you know, hopefully you make, you know,”

a massive mass of amount of money, and then you're out, that's kind of the idea, and I think that is an idea that has been building really over the last decade or so, when I think really picked up during the COVID period when people were locked at home, it's sort of an interesting thing because I think it really took off then as well, because a lot of people they had no money to spend on stuff, some people were getting stimulus checks and so on, so they had, you know, a couple

of thousand dollars, many people if you're sort of working at Walmart or something like that,

you probably never had as much savings as you had at that point, and you're sitting there looking

at this thousand dollar check and you kind of think, well, you know, well, I do buy clothes with it or go all in on something and try and turn a thousand dollars into a million dollars, and that's sort of the financial nihilism mindset. It seems like this awful combination of economic opportunity for young people in America at least has really never been lower, at least relative to other generations. Just look at housing prices today, as an example, and we'll get into this, but housing prices

relative to income have never been higher, housing prices have seven X over the past 50 years. They've way out-paced wage growth. Costs of college have tripled since 1980, that's adjusted for inflation. Combined with, I think, as you say, social media, and the fact that we're constantly on our phones, looking at all of these rich people who supposedly made their money on Dogecoin, on Trumpcoin, Pepecoin, Com rocket, you name it. Andrew Tate is out there, driving his seven

either rented or not Lamborghinis, that he supposedly got because he went all in on crypto. I mean, this culture of lettering up borrowing money, trading options, trading crypto, getting into gambling, and then the illusion that that is actually going to lead you to a place of financial success and well-being really seems pervasive, and it seems like it is having a substantial impact on the structure of equity markets. All you can assume is that we're going to see crypto over and over again

in different types of asset classes. It goes up, everyone gets excited that it just boom goes down as soon as the excitement fades, which makes me think we've got to see the same thing again in some of these AI names and these semiconductor names. Perhaps we're already seeing it. We have already seen that at the past week, it's been pretty bad for the semiconductor stocks. At least there are some cash flows there, and at least there's actually a thesis fundamentally behind

“those trades. But you have to think this is just going to keep going over and over again, now.”

Well, the only thing is when people get, in fact, the worst thing about this bubble bus cycle is that a lot of people, their introduction to investing is sort of putting their money into some crazy thing that their friend told them was a good idea. It gets totally wiped out, and then they're sort of scared for life. And there were a lot of people I knew because I sort of I was in my 20s during the dot com bubble, and so many people I know were really, really excited about all these

internet names piled into them. They wiped out. And then, you know, I'll talk to these guys,

you know, 30 years later, 25 years later, and they all said, no, no, I never invested. It's all

a con. Like, and the thing is, had you put your money in the S&P 500, or even actually held on to the NASDAQ, or whatever, from back then, you would have done quite well. While, you know, you put your money all in government bonds, you know, you live look smart for about three years at that, you know, because the supermarket fell for three years after the bubble burst, but then in the long run, you don't. And so the real, the problem sort of is financial education.

It's that people don't understand sort of what normal expected returns are. Like, it's not, you know, it's not like, you know, 300% return in a year, or whatever, that can happen. You can buy

“a thing, and that can happen. But you should recognize that you were probably lucky, and you didn't”

necessarily predict it. And that in the long run, like, you know, if you're 20 years old right now, when you're going to retire in, you know, 45 years time, you should hopefully just harvest the

have another unlucky loss, and it probably balances out to giving you about the return of the SNP, assuming you don't go too crazy and like, leave her up at the wrong time or, you know, cut all of your losses at the bottom or whatever or so. Yeah, it seems as though the financial

education point is basically the entire fix to this thing, because, I mean, it's not just that these

essentially gambling products are out there. It's the fact that we're kind of convincing people that those gambling products are not gambling products that they are investment products. I mean, if you look at the way we talk about, you know, zero day options and how that has exploded among young people and perpetual futures, these options contracts that have basically no leverage cap, no expiration date. It's just a bet on whether it goes up or down. I mean, the prediction market

so that what you're buying is called an events contract, and it's regulated by the CFTC, as if it isn't gambling, as if you're actually trading, not even trading investing in an actual commodity when you bet on whether the New York mix are going to win. That's even the thing is that the whole argument behind, like if you listen to people defend prediction markets, they say, well, you know, what's happening here is that it's sort of providing information. It's, you know,

it's kind of real economic events been bad on, but I believe some like 90% of the gambling is just on sports, like it's just sports betting, you know, and it's wild the idea that the CFTC is now a sports regulator of sorts. Regulating sports betting in states where sports betting is illegal. I mean, it has to crumble at some point. My view is I like the events contracts on the financial and economic events. I find it interesting and useful to look at that data,

but then to make the argument that that should also be a venue to be betting on the outcome of sports games and world cup games. That's just taking everything a step too far. But even one of

“the problems even about using it to bet on events, like if you want to bet on a smaller election”

or something like that, is it possibly becomes worthwhile for a marginal candidate to sort of put there, you know, to put a bit of money behind it and suddenly the journalists all get on the air and kind of go like, oh, and this guy is really coming up from behind. No one expected this,

but the prediction market said that he's now the leading candidate, or did he just drop a million

bucks on a contract, you know? Yes. If the insider trading on those platforms is an address, then the entire thing is compromised. The entire thing has no place. So that's again, more reason for strong regulation related to what we talked about with the SEC and how the regulation preventing the equity research and the investment gap bank it goes from collaborating, that's evaporated. The SEC has essentially been gutted over the past year. I mean, you look at

the amount of enforcement actions. It was an all-time low, at least for a transition. Yeah, 15% of the workforce is left. I mean, the reason you need all these things is so that people can believe in markets. I'm not become financially nihilistic, because that's the, where we're headed. It's worth noting this. There's a requirement for balance. Like, I felt a few years ago that

“was, I think, the, what was it, the FTC blocked a merger between two handbag brands by claiming”

that there would be sort of a monopoly in mid-price. I don't know. I forget it was coach and Michael Cores or something like that, and they said, no, this would be a monopoly. And it's like,

I'm sorry, but there's no such thing as a monopoly in the fashion industry. Like, there's always

someone willing to, to make a bag at a different price point. So there's arguments. You know, the regulation thing I'm always on the fence about, because there can be too much regulation, and there can be not enough. And the problem is that both of these things can be harmful. We'll be right back. I'm for even more markets content. Sign up for our newsletter at ProfgMarkets.com.

Support for the show comes from Granola. It feels good to walk away from a meeting that actually felt productive, but our brains could only hold so much info. You might look back and

“realize you either, A, got caught up in your notes and missed some important stuff, or B,”

you couldn't even take notes, and now you're trying to reconstruct it all from memory. If that's your dilemma, Granola can help solve it. Granola is an AI-powered note path, built for the way real people actually meet. You can take rough notes like you normally would in the

into clean, structured, actually useful notes. You can walk away knowing exactly what was decided, who's involved, and what comes next. If meetings are eating up your day, Granola is a no-brainer, you can try it totally free for three months, just head to granola.ai/markets. That's granola.ai/markets to get your time back, get three months free at granola.ai/markets. 1, 2, 1, 4, 4. Ah. Shlus with the evigen abtip from Catenomans. Thanks for watching.

Without 16-stallic Catenomans, you can go to Pass4, or extra-apps for your own business. So, come to your online shop directly to us. Make online, quickly, and see you soon. Meet VisaClickToPay. And for the next checkout, I'll see you in.

“But does anybody want that? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I don't see why not. Absolutely. I think”

CarolaHair is around for president again. I don't think there will never be a woman

president for the new dynasty. Now, while away, you can't just walk away on that, tell us why. I know it's still early to talk about 2020-8, but as we build to our post-Trump future, it seems to be a big question about the Democratic Party. KamalaHairis leads all of the presidential polling. So, does this mean that the person who let the ticket in 2024 is going to lead the party again in 2020-8? The campaign needs to be called bye-bye, but it's just a tainted brand.

Do you think from a donor community largely that there's any appetite for a Harris return? I don't.

“I'm a stead-herndon. And this is America, actually. Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever”

you get your podcast. We're back with Profge Markets. The US housing market is showing new signs of strain. Last month, the median price of a home in the US hit a record high at 400,000, 838 dollars. And the median US housing payment saw its first year over year increase since October. This is part of a broader trend we've been tracking on the show. Home ownership is becoming increasingly out of reach for the

average American. In fact, 75% of homes currently on the market are unaffordable for the typical household. Patrick, you've been talking about this researching the housing market explaining it on

over on your channel. It's always something that's just befuddling to me like how it continues to go up

every year despite it the previous year being a crazy record. It still keeps happening.

“What's the deal with housing? Why is it keep going up?”

It's a big problem in big parts of the Western world. It's interesting because it's not, there's certain parts of the United States. If you look in Texas, there's not really the same problem as you'll see in New York City and Massachusetts and whatever. And it's because it's just easy to build in Texas. And essentially a home there's prices more tied to the cost of building materials and interest rates than anything else. While everywhere else you go, it's often said that the

land value is the core value. And some of it, it's things like growing populations which are starting now to reverse. But it's an interest rate coming down a will of made houses more expensive because people typically buy or borrow money. But in the very long run, if you look at a very long history of housing prices, there's no reason to think they should go up. But it's become sort of an

investment class. Years ago, if you speak to your grandparents, they'll never talk about the concept

of real estate investing. They bought a home that they needed to live in. Once it became an investment and will say in places like the UK where it is by far the biggest investment, like it's what people do with their savings, you're sort of either by their own home or by to let a property. You end up with this situation where the government have incentivized people to buy homes. They want prices to go up or at least stay steady. And so, in an election year or whatever,

to allow changes that would make it affordable to young people? And for the last 20, 25 years

the answer has been no. And so, we've seen prices go up and up. And, you know, the political motives are all there. And you see politicians saying, you know, we want affordable housing for young people, but we don't want to hit the, you know, the home values of retirees who are relying

“on it. And it's like, well, you get one or the other. Yes, you said in your video, I think this”

quote really sums it up. You said, quote, once a country decides its houses are supposed to make everyone rich, it has to keep prices rising forever, which means restricting supply, blocking development and quietly pricing out each new generation, which works until it doesn't. And I think

what I appreciate about that view, I think is right, is the fact that it is a choice. I mean,

it is an intentional policy decision to decide that if you're starting from a place of people expect the value of their homes to go up, then we have to do whatever we can to make that happen. And I think this was really crystallized for me earlier this year when the president who had sort of said that he wanted it, wanted housing to become affordable, I thought we had all agreed that that was something we all wanted to figure out. He said the following, and we'll just play

this clip and get your reaction. So much talk about, oh, we're going to drive housing prices down. I don't want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that

“own their homes, and they can be assured that's what's going to happen. This is the problem, right?”

'Cause that's who votes, right? Like that's who votes, you know, home owners, the elderly vote,

young people don't vote, so they don't get a say. Something you were saying is that we shouldn't necessarily expect the price of a house to go up. That's not a given, which I thought was interesting, comment, because I've been trained to think that it should. Why do you believe that? Well, if we just look at a regular home, you know, the example I was saying to you yesterday was if we look at a home near a hospital that a doctor lives in, right?

And we've got to assume that when the doctor bought that home, it was affordable for someone on a doctor's salary. If we move forward 50 years, the hospital is still there, that home should probably be filled by another doctor. It's not going to be a Russian oligarch, you know, a crypto billionaire or whatever. It's going to be a regular person who works at the hospital and does it must be priced such that the doctor can afford it. And the rate at which wages go up is roughly

in line with the rate of inflation. So to believe that house prices should go up significantly more than inflation in the long run, doesn't really make much sense. It's, you know, we can't live in a world. There's a lot of scare mongering, even, you know, where you see people out there and they say, well, no one will ever own homes again, they'll all be owned by billionaires and blah, blah, and it's like, well, even if billionaires own them, they have to rent them out and

they have to rent them out at a price that we can afford. And if they overpaid for them and are renting them out at a low price, they're losing money on that. So, you know, if you're buying an asset at an all-time high and it seems really unaffordable to a regular person like you, it might mean that that's not a great investment. We seem to take it as a given, especially in America, that if you buy a home, it's going to go up. Like, it is an investment. That is the way people see.

And it's sort of like, have your cake and eat it, too. I get to live in this home. I get to have a roof over my head. And at the same time, I am making like a financially responsible decision that's going to pay out over the long term. And I guess it doesn't, you've made it clear to me that there's no reason we should assume that or why anyone should assume that. Like, the only reason

“you should assume that your house is more valuable five years from now than it is today is if you invest”

in renovation and make it nicer. Or if you believe that the specific local that you have bought your house in, the neighborhood is going to become a hot neighborhood and everyone's going to want to live there. To me, those are the only two reasons. Yeah, if it's suddenly boomed because of very profitable business open down the road or something like that. But yeah, there's no reason to think that a regular person's house should explode in value that it should go up, like the stock market

does, you know, the stock market is companies who are, you know, making and selling goods at a mark. Up your home is just sitting there. And in fact, it needs a roof repair every once in a while a new sighting and, you know, the kitchen wears out. It also, if you just look at a long term return

it's not the best. I understand the emotional urge to own the place you live, but an emotional

urge is different to an investment decision. You know, and the investment decision is, you know, is this going to go up at a higher rate or with a lower risk than the other assets I can invest in. It almost has parallels to our conversation about the crypto where the reason the price of crypto is staying up or was staying up was because people just fundamentally believed that it would keep going up and that was the proposition. And when I look at the price of housing today,

I would imagine that a large reason why, I mean, of course there's the supply problem, which we

“have obviously have to get fixed. But I think it may be in addition, there is the fundamental belief”

among Americans and current non-home owners that the price will go up. And if you believe that, then there's more incentive to go out and buy a home as opposed to investing in anything else. And I wonder if your point, if we would have philosophically changed that mindset in America and in the Western world, that it does seem to be kind of a Western world thing. This doesn't really exist in Singapore as an example. It doesn't really exist in Japan. They don't think of

these houses as investments per se. If we were to eliminate that mindset and treat it as, this is a place where I live and it's a cost. And if I want to invest, then I go and I invest in stocks and I invest in businesses, I invest in the S&P. Perhaps that would solve the problem. Maybe that would shift things, I mean, what would it take to get prices at a reasonable place?

“It's so interesting though, because even we've seen in New Zealand there's been a fall in”

house prices. And even in the United States, home affordability is collapsed in recent years, even though house prices haven't gone up that much. But because a few years ago, you could borrow at under 3% to buy a home. And then when it goes up to 7% or something like that, to buy the same home, the same cash flow does not buy that home at that price. Like it's almost like the house prices up 60-70% or at least the cost of funding the purchase is up a lot. Now you would

say, well, who are all the people who can suddenly afford to pay this much more? Like they haven't

had pay raises or anything. And the answer is they don't exist, but the sellers are not willing

to mark down their homes. They've locked in at a low mortgage rate. And so you've seen the United States just transactions have collapsed. You know, like sellers aren't willing to mark it down and take a massive loss. And it's totally unaffordable to buyers. So you just end up with this frozen housing market. In other parts of the world, in England, where your interest rate is usually variable. You can only lock it for a few years. You actually feel the pain. Like when

“interest rates go up, your mortgage bill goes up. And you have to ask yourself, you know, can I afford”

to keep paying this? And so you're more likely to see a squeeze on home owners in places where variable interest rate more could just put in the United States. You just see the market freeze

up. And that also works noting like it's kind of lucky, but it's not always because for example,

if you had, I don't know, a great job. And you're offered a promotion, but you have to move across the country. You know, you think, well, gosh, you know, if I if I sell my house now, when I get $500,000, and I buy a home in this other place for $500,000, the mortgage mean, you know, the cash flow, I can't do that. Like I'd have to buy a $300,000 home in order to, you know, to finance it with the same cash flow. And so I won't take that job promotion. And so it sort of harms people, you know,

work or mobility and careers and things like that all just sort of clinging on to this investment. Let's take a look at the week ahead. Next week, we'll see inflation data from the consumer and producer price indices for June earnings season will kick off with the big banks reporting. We'll hear from JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, city group and Morgan Stanley will also see earnings from ASML, TSMC, Johnson and Johnson United Airlines, United Health and

Netflix, pretty big earnings week. This is the bottom of the show, Patrick, where I usually ask it's got for a prediction. So if you have one, I will ask you, do you have a prediction for us for the week ahead or for otherwise? Well mine is a controversial prediction. I'm predicting that that countbin phase is going to win the buy election in the UK against Nigel Farage, you know, it's sort of Nigel Farage, you know, kind of brought about this, this buy election, you know,

against him is a man who claims to be from space and he wears a trash can on his head. And he's running

“on, I think, one of the best election proposals that I've ever heard, which is to reduce your”

taxes, but raise them for everyone else. Like, not that prediction.

Our UK listeners, I'm sure we'll love it too. My prediction goes back to the SpaceX story.

I think we're going to uncover something very ugly with these Wall Street analyst reports. I'm not saying I'm not in dating anyone or accusing anyone of anything, but if I had to make a prediction,

“I think it would be that we will see a situation similar to what we saw with the Henry”

Blodgett case. I think we're going to uncover that some very funky stuff has been happening

with these price targets specifically for SpaceX. Patrick, this was wonderful. Thank you so much. Really appreciate your time. Patrick is a professor at King's College London and a portfolio

“manager with more than 20 years of experience at hedge funds investment banks and private wealth”

management firms. He is also the author of several books on finance and host the podcast, Patrick Boyle, on finance, which I highly recommend should all go check it out. We really appreciate your time, Patrick. Thank you for having me on. This episode was produced by Clay Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Jorge Colty. Our research team is Dan Schlon,

Cristina Donahue and Mia Savario. Jake McPherson is our social producer. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dylan is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to property markets from property media. If you like what you heard, give us a follow and tune into tomorrow for a fresh take on the markets. [Music]