Why A Hot Jobs Report Spooked Wall Street

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I'm Ed Elson. It is June 9th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rebounded from Friday's cell-off. More on that in a second.

Chipmake has rallied with Intel jumping 10% on news that Google ordered 3 million chips

from the company, oil eased as Israel and Iran pledged to halt their strikes. And finally Apple stock fell nearly 2% on lackluster AI products news at its developer conference. Okay, what else is happening? The May Jobs report dropped on Friday and while it was a blowout, Markets took it as bad news. The economy added 172,000 jobs last month, more than double what forecasters expected.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, plus the March and April reports were also revised higher, adding another 93,000 jobs. However, this strong report caused a massive cell-off on Friday. The S&P closed down almost 3% and the Nasdaq fell more than 4%. That was its worst drop since liberation day.

So, here to unpack this report and also why Markets reacted so badly, we are speaking with Justin Wolfers' Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan and also founder of Platypus Economics. Justin, great to see you. Thank you for joining us again on the show.

I want to get into the Markets' reaction, but before we do that,

let's first just make sense of this jobs report, which was seemingly, really strong.

172,000 jobs added in May. The previous reports revised the upload. Give us your read on what we saw in that jobs report.

“I think we just saw really, really good news.”

I feel fairly confident and comfortable saying that, but I want to be clear. I will not normally see 172,000 in jump for joy. I'll normally say, look for confirmation with a few other few more months. And so one of the things that was so interesting is we're now at three very strong months in a row. So I'm more impressed by the fact that over the past three months

with average job growth around about that pace. I think it's 188,000 a month for folks who were keeping score at home. That's sort of my mum's very, very hard task master. But if I brought home, jobs numbers like that, my mum would probably say, "Well done, Justin. Good job."

And so I'd say that to the U.S. economy. Well done. What about people who see this jobs report and I've seen this online, and they say, "I don't believe that they're lying." You know, this is some sort of drift from the president.

I mean, it seems that a lot of people, this is seemingly good news. A lot of people don't want to hear the good news because maybe their experience of the economy isn't great or that it's worth the president.

So I'm actually going to put out a piece tomorrow,

“which dives into exactly that set of issues.”

And I'm going to, like, relentlessly bore the hell out of my audience. So let me instead be fun and entertaining for years. My favorite moment was look, I like to read the data in the most honest way I can. And so when you see good news, you say, "You're beauty." By the way, I got just an enormous amount of social media vitriol.

For it's completely clear that I've spent far too much time praising the president recently and people are upset at me. But again, I might, my attachments to the truth not to a political narrative. My favorite of these, by the way, is threads now has community notes. And I, as a post, I put out, I mean, in which I see the economy's gone well, blah, blah, blah. There's now a threads community note checking that and saying, "I'm wrong quoting a different

post by Justin Wolfus."

“So I actually think it's, it's great. It's a good reminder for all of us to have a little bit of”

intellectual flexibility to be willing to change our minds, to be willing to update when the moment demands it. I will say to you very directly, there is no evidence whatsoever that this number has been in any way falsified or tampered with. No data or a perfect, this data surely is not perfect. It's just an estimate, it may later on turn out to be an overestimate. But it's a good, honest, totally serious estimate. And we should update our views about the world accordingly.

Just in terms of where the strength is in, in the job market or something that we've been keeping track of as over the past few months, really, I guess more than a year now, it seems as though the one place where the job market is really strengthening and growing is healthcare. And then everything else seems to be kind of lagging, is that still true? Yes, absolutely. So it's one sector called healthcare and social services, which has since Trump became president has created 911,000 jobs,

everything else, every other part of the economy. If you're not working in healthcare and social services, the rest of the economy actually is lost jobs. On its face, that's a very striking claim.

And the last three months has been a little bit more mixed than that, but you never want to

“go off one month, so that's why I'm saying, you know, over the past year, it's all been”

healthcare and social services. Now here's the thing, the rate at which we're creating jobs overall is fairly low. That's because population growth is low. So the number of jobs we need to create when there are fewer Americans as far lower. And so what that in turn means is there's always some industries doing better than others. But the closer you are to the whole not growing very much, the more likely it is you'll end up in a world in which one sector is doing all the positive

and everything else as a negative. So the statistic I think is a very very interesting talking point, but it may actually be somewhat less relevant than it sounds like, simply because in a low growth economy, it's not unusual for a bunch of sectors to be declining. Now just starting to the stock market fell pretty precipitously. And it's kind of interesting why that has happened. And could you just walk us through why our investors are not excited about this report that

seems to be showing that the economy is doing well? The first thing is, you know, very strong

jobs numbers. So now what you want to do is go and play the game of Federal Reserve. And so the Fed was under some pressure to cut rates because it was worried about the late market. We're not worried about it anymore. No pressure to cut rates. It was under pressure to raise rates because we were worried about inflation. So we went from a somewhat balanced argument to one of the arguments just going off the table altogether. So now the only question is, there's inflation out there. What

do you want to do about it? And the argument would be between those who are like, well, it's a supply shock, let's just sit and wait for it to work its way through the system and others who are like, "I'm already everything. We're going to lose everything. Let's high rates," which is definitely the position of young Kevin Warsh would have taken. We'll see what a grown-up one does in just a few days time. So step one, strong economy, step two, higher interest rates for quite a fair way out now.

And then step three is, as you said, markets are all shut the bed. There's sort of two US stock markets. So you were just reporting on the S&P 500 or on the Nasdaq. Goldman Sachs is recently put together a very nice index, which is the S&P 500, and we're going to take it out of it everyone, his AI or AI adjacent. So it's the non-AI stock market. And it turns out the non-AI stock market rose by like a couple of hundreds of a percentage point, but it rose. You know, so I want you to think of it as

flat. So all the market reaction, none of it was in Main Street, it was all in Silicon Valley.

bit. That's open AI and Thropic Google. And in video, it's going to be worth a lot in the future.

And our new AI driven future. The higher our interest rates, the less investors value profits that are going to occur 10, 20, 30 years in the future. And so that's exactly what happened. So the particularly startups, but generally anyone who's got their profitability is all about the future,

“not the present, then higher interest rates hurt them. And so I think that's the story”

for what happened. Now, I think the somewhat broader and more interesting thing is the logic of that pretty much makes sense. But what it reveals is the vulnerability of parts of this boom, which is if there's a bunch of AI investments that make a lot of sense when

it strikes a 3% but no sense when it strikes a 5%. Then that says fairly small tweaks could have

bigger effects on stocks, which is literally what we saw on Friday. So I'm not saying anything new. But it sort of says strapping because changes in investor sentiment could have bigger effects on the AI sector, which is now such a big part of U.S. stocks. And it was one of the key themes going into 2026 from an investor perspective, which is that we were entering what we all thought was a rate cutting environment. And now it appears after this data, which yes, gives us good news,

but it essentially means that we all have one problem. And that problem is inflation. What do we want to do about it? The only real solution to that if you're at the Federal Reserve is U-Hike rates. So now we look at the odds on calcium of a rate hike before the end of the year in 2026 has

“gone up to around 52%. So it seems very probable. I guess, I mean, I think we're all on the same”

page, if we enter a rate hiking environment, that's not a great thing for stocks, particularly these tech stocks that you mentioned. But then there's a question of how probable is it really? And that probably goes back to inflation. How bad is this inflation problem? Yes, it's nice that we have this employment problem out of the way we think based on the jobs report. But I guess my question to you is, given what you're seeing in the inflation, given given how

quite a good this jobs report actually was, how likely is a rate hike really? I think it's currently more likely than next move is up. It may not be too far away. There is an unknown, which is who is Kevin Worsh. We're going to learn more about that over the next few months. This old game, it gets played out every couple of years and then a bright young explainer in this case at your turn, Ed, has to offer good news as bad news.

And I've always, so you'd see this every couple of years, which is something

unequivocally good happens, like the lab market's healthier, the economy's healthier, we haven't beaten it to death. And then Wall Street gets a little bit too clever and it says, oh well, so that's going to cause the Fed to overreact and the Fed will screw everything up, so good news is bad news. I've never been a fan of this story. Because the other possibility is the Fed could underreact. Anytime you're confident, you know, which way the Fed's going to

screw things up, you then have to say, well, and this is how I know I'm smarter than the Fed. And I know a lot of Fed economists and a lot of them are smarter than a lot of the rest of us on the outside and collectively they're brilliant. I think there's probably a reasonable basis for the claim that good news raises rates, which tilts the playing field against firms, whose profits are a long way in the future. I think that's not quite the full stupid good news

is bad news routine, but you might start to see the good news is bad news routine. And then that's going to be great for the show, Ed, because every two weeks you can have to explain it from those principles slowly and you'll sound really clever. It'll be good. I can't wait. This is exactly what we do. Good news is bad news contradictions. That's what it's all about. Just before we wrap here, the one thing I'd like to point out is wage growth,

which we just rose 3.4% but inflation is currently at 3.8%. This is the bad thing, if we're talking just from a purely economics perspective, which is that real wages are falling. I just wanted to get your read on what we're seeing in terms of wages. This seems like not a good trajectory, and I wonder if it's going to continue.

“Wages aren't keeping up with prices. That's what you're seeing right now. That's”

to make the innocent talking point if you're living DC and people in DC are going to say a lot. Now part of that is the spike in prices is very dramatic, very recent, and very oil-based,

to contribute to inflation, which is the rate of change of prices. The idea that bosses aren't

sitting down and negotiating pay rises for people minutes after the straight-of-home was closed, probably isn't that surprising. I think the way to think about this is wages move relatively slowly and on average, they tend to catch up, and the question is, once we've had a few months

“under our belt, what are we seeing? So I think it's going to be a very important political talk and”

point while surely premature to say much about the slip and living standards. And then just one other story to brace yourself for, what is going to happen? I'm just going to add on you're a smart guy. You want to skate to where the puck's going, and so I dare tell you what next month's news stories are all going to be. There'll be a bunch of think tankers on Massav

in Washington DC releasing pieces saying, "When real wages are falling, no wonder Americans are

deeply unhappy." And so the fact that wages are a half-point behind prices will lead them to a completely different set of stories than if wages are a half-point ahead of prices. The idea that this is how we live our lives strikes me as a little bit odd. But I think also in terms of storytelling misses the reality, because an important reality remembers, this is what's happening on average, on average it's bad news that it is bad news that on average wages aren't rising.

But remember each of us actually lives our own independent lives and we actually have very different life cycles, right? So it my guess is the last few years have been good for you, you're a young bloke, so your wages are rising every year. That's true of everyone, roundabout your age, turns out once you're in a bit my age at stops. And so what that means is you will probably, you and many people in their 20s, 30s and even 40s will continue to experience wage rises ahead of inflation,

they'll just be a little bit less than they might otherwise have been. And so these think pieces that people are at home festering because they're not getting real wage rises can founds what's happening on average with what's happening to most individuals. Most individuals are going to continue to be getting some form of real wage rise and I know someone's going to be angry at me that I said that because there are lots of exceptions to that rule. There are lots of exceptions to the rule. All

I'm suggesting is before you inhale those think pieces, have a think about what it looks like at the individual rather than the aggregate level. Plenty of people are going to be doing okay,

“plenty of people are suffering. That's what the average tells us, but it doesn't tell us that”

everyone out there is suffering. All right, Justin Wolf is Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan founder of Plastepus Economics. Justin, thank you for cutting through the noise with us. We really appreciate it. Great touch, man. We'll be right back and for even more markets content sign up for our newsletter at proftymarchits.com. Support for the show comes from LinkedIn. It's a shame when the best need to be marketing

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“We're back with property markets. As the IPO race intensifies, even the world's richest”

companies are competing for fresh capital. Meta is the latest company that is exploring a massive equity race, following Google's announcement of a record stock sale last week. The company is

playing spend $145 billion on AI infrastructure this year with even higher investments expected in

2027. Meanwhile, SpaceX hits the market in just three days with plans to raise $75 billion, which would of course make it the largest IPO of all time. And then open AI and anthropic are expected to follow with potentially even bigger fund raises on their horizon. Joining us to discuss Meta and the broader equity supply we are speaking with John Foley head of the Lex column at the financial times. John, thank you for joining me on property markets. Just a slew of headlines or all

kind of related, which is that all of these tech companies are about to raise a ton of money. Google, of course, just did their equity offering $85 billion dollars that is ongoing right now. But then we learn for the financial times that Meta is going to do the same thing. And then I'm also hearing online that maybe Amazon's going to do an equity offering, maybe Microsoft's going to do an equity offering. Everyone's going out and raising a ton of money. I guess the big question is,

what does this actually mean for markets and what does this mean for investors? Well, in terms of what it means for markets, this is a lot of money. So the part of the thing about AI is that

huge numbers become absolutely meaningless. So Google's $85 billion equity raise Meta will know

doubt try something similar. Amazon who knows who will be next Microsoft Oracle you name it. And these are all like relatively small numbers for these big companies. So Google's equity $85 billion is only about 2% of its market capitalization. But they start to add up and in terms of how much equity the market can actually absorb. The numbers become quite staggering, really, especially when you add in things like SpaceX's IPO upcoming equity issuance by OpenAI

and Anthropic. We're getting into kind of record levels of equity issuance. So investors are going to have to decide fairly carefully where they put their money. And in terms of the companies themselves, they've got big spending plans, as you said, they've got finite cash flows from their operations. And really, they're doing exactly what you're supposed to do if you think your shares are highly valued or do we say it overvalued, which is issue as much equity as you can and get what

we're getting good. If the idea is to sell your stock now, which is what they're all doing. They're all deciding that the time to sell is now. You can see that as a good thing or you can see that as a bad thing. And that is they might believe that this is the top that this is the moment when investors are most exuberant. You said that spirits are boisterous in your recent column. I mean, is this a signal that we're kind of at the top or at least the animal spirits are running

dangerously too high? I mean, we are all waiting for some kind of signal that we are near or at the top. When Google announced the equity raising, it's, you know, we're a few of us watching nervously thinking, is this it? Is this the moment the share prices are going to start to collapse? And they didn't. And everything was kind of okay, we had a bit of a wobble afterwards with some of the microchip companies. Like for these companies, it is actually kind of sensible to raise equity

to some degree because equity is you don't have to pay it back. So if you're investing in data

“centers, debt can be quite troublesome because you have to service your interest costs. As some”

point, you have to pay back your lender's equity, you don't have to do that. So it does give them

companies are quite large and they're experimenting with lots of different things. Google has been raising money through issuing bonds, metered at a huge bond issue early this year. Google's also issuing convertibles. It's also bringing in books. A half away Warren Buffett's company to into its capital structure by issuing shares at a discount to them. So they're sort of doing a bit of everything, which is kind of what you want the CFOs of these companies to be doing.

You want them to be exploring capital markets, working out where the opportunity is. And to some degree, you want them to be quite sharp elbowed. You want Google to try and get in ahead of

“anthropic and open AI. There's a business like, I think there's a bit of the hyperscale”

is trolling each other. Well, if you're going to raise some money, we're going to get in first

using some of the same banks that you're using and try and raise slightly more than you do a couple of weeks beforehand. It's a really interesting point that, you know, Google might be seeing that anthropics about to go public, open eyes about to go public. Why don't we go in and steal all of that hungry capital out there that wants to invest in AI. But interestingly, in that, in that thesis, there is an implication that if we get out first, we're going to suck

all the capital out of the ecosystem and there's not going to be enough left for the rest of you. Do you think that that is a legitimate concern as these IPO start to ramp up that maybe the last one is going to be the loser that they're not going to be able to raise as much as the rest of them?

It's got to be a fear that is in everyone's minds, whether it's real, I kind of doubt so I'd

like to think, I hope that investors still have some discernment and they will pick the stocks that are the most appealing in any given time. They'll put the capital where it's going to get the highest return. But if you're in this hyper competitive industry where everyone is kind of going for the same goal, which is to, you know, perfect AI, attract the maximum number of enterprise customers for your large language models and for your various apps, there is going to be some fear that

if the market does change track, if people do lose their exuberance, then you don't want to be the one that failed to raise capital in time for that. So I do think that, rationally, there is enough

“money to go around, I think that investors will hopefully be relatively smart about where they put it,”

but it makes perfect sense to try and get ahead of your rivals. So what I would do if I were them. We also mentioned just that the sheer scale of the equity issue as you've got, you know, Google

85 billion dollars, SpaceX 75 billion dollars and then open the AI anthropic. We don't know, but

probably in that ballpark, I mean, that's the amount that they've been raising their private rounds. There are some concerns now about the amount of supply that is about to just be injected into the market that it might be a shocking level of supply. And as we know from Econ 101, more supply generally means lower prices or it does mean lower prices. Do you think that as a concern going into the second half of the year as well that the supply might reduce prices

in the equity markets? So it could, there could be some kind of sell-offers people sell out of one thing to buy into another. I mean, the S&P is enormous. It's whatever like $70 trillion of market capital around numbers. So this is still relatively small compared with the size of the overall stock market. So I don't think we're going to kind of hit a brick wall in terms of available liquidity, but we have seen from various investor surveys that people are holding a lot of cash at the moment.

They are going to be some trade-offs. And it would be interesting, for example, to see whether shareholders as a lot of people are speculating sell Tesla, for example, to buy SpaceX because they've already got a certain amount of Elon Musk and their portfolio. And they'd rather kind of rebalance that by swapping a bit of humanoid robots and electric vehicles for space rockets and

“styling and data centers, what have you. So I think that's one of the things that we're nervous”

about, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Just before we let you go, you mentioned SpaceX, SpaceX is going public at the end of the week. I personally can't wait to see what happens here. It's just the scale of this thing. It's just absolutely mind-blowing. Do you have any thoughts on this IPO and what might happen? What do you make of this company and what we've seen? It's a great question. So SpaceX is a real, I'm sort of sick of hearing the word "moon shot"

in the last few weeks, but it is literally and figuratively a moon shot. You look at this company, and I sat down and rolled my sleeves up, tried to value it, and you find yourself doing all these ridiculous assumptions. If the world spends 10% of its GDP on satellite communications by 2035, but really it's like a number go up thing. I think you just you either believe that Elon Musk is capable of something truly remarkable and that we're all going to be mining asteroids and doing

like motion, vacation travel by 20, whatever it is or not. So it's really hard to justify this company's valuation on fundamentals, but Musk has done this before with Tesla. Tesla is mostly option value

So if you like the sound of asteroid mining and space ships, then you'll buy the shares and it really doesn't matter where he prices them. So I'm guessing it's going to go up quite a bit on the

“first day. I don't hold me to that, but I think there is still a lot of experience around him,”

and I think there are a lot of people who are waiting to get into the stock. Goes up a lot on the first day and with you on that, do you think it comes down on the second day? Or the third or the fourth on the fifth? I don't know if you're responsible for a collapse in SpaceX. I feel about it the way I feel about Bitcoin. I'm sure I can see that there is some utility to this. I can see what you're trying to do. Is this the price?

Is can I construct a discount cash flow model that tells you that the price is whatever it is, a hundred and thirty-five dollars per year? No, absolutely cannot. I have no idea where the shares

“will land. So I would not be a buyer at this point, but maybe I'm going to miss out.”

John Furley is the head of the Lact column at the Financial Times. John, thank you for joining us on Prof. Markets. We appreciate it. Thanks.

Just three more days until SpaceX goes public. The company will raise $75 billion

making it the largest IPO of all time. After that, onthropic and opening eye, we'll go public, how much will they raise unclear, but given the size of their recent round, 65 billion and $122 billion respectively, we can assume that those IPOs will also be massive likely around $100 billion and almost certainly larger than SpaceX's IPO. Then there is Google, which will raise

“$85 billion, the largest equity financing event of all time. And then after that, possibly Meta,”

which supposedly wants to raise tens of billions of dollars as well. So that's already around

$400 billion in new equity supply. But wait, there is more. Because according to Goldman Sachs,

nearly $500 billion worth of shares are about to be unlocked after their lock-up periods expire. This year. So now we're actually up to roughly $900 billion. Nearly a trillion dollars in new equity supply that is about to hit the stock market. Why does any of this matter? Well, it all goes back to supply and demand. There are two reasons why the price of a product falls. Either one, demand goes down, or two, supply goes up. This is Econ 101. It's the most fundamental principle

of economics and it's what makes Chinese electronics. So cheap and American houses so expensive. Well, here we have a similar situation about to play out in the stock market. And that is at the supply of new stock isn't just about to rise or increase. It is about to explode. We are about to inject the equivalent of the entire stock market of Italy into the US equity markets. What does it mean to dramatically increase the supply of a product? Well, it means dramatically

reducing the price of that product. The US stock market is about to get hit with a force more

powerful than gravity. And that is the force of supply and demand. I talked more about this in the

latest edition of my newsletter on Substack, but the thesis is quite simple. Supplies about to go way up, which means this is likely the top. Look out below. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alice in Engineers by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dashlon. It's about a canceled Kristen O'Donnie Hugh and Mia Salvario. And our social producer

is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prophecy Market from Prophecy Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I will see you tomorrow.