🛡️ “War-folios” — Iran market reaction. Dutch Bros’ energy. Anthropic’s moral marketing. + Fitbit for farting

It's Tuesday, Team Boy, Tuesday, March 3rd, and today's plot is the best one yet, this is a Team Boy.

“The top three pop business news stories you need to know today.”

So, Yadys, Jack is fluent from Florida, and he's trying to convince me that sunburns can, in fact, grow up to be Tans. That's what happened. Look at this complexion right now. I'm bronzer. I think like 12 Germanologists have subscribed for the show right now, Jack. Yeah, I really should have re-applied that SPF.

I really should. Jack, I was the championship pick-up on game with the in-laws over there. Toasty. Jack also just told me shelf-a-boards the new Peloton. But we've got three fantastic stories for today's Team Boy Jack, what are we gonna pot?

For our first story, the war to run has expanded to 11 Middle Eastern countries, as well as the stock oil and even fashion markets.

So, Jack and I are looking at your war folio, your stock portfolio, during a Middle East war. For our second story, Dutch Bros is now the number three coffee chain in America. But just 10% of their drinks are actually hot coffee. What they with they really are. And our third and final story is the biggest beef in business right now.

It's between anthropic, open AI, and the pentagon. So here is the Shakespearean business question. Get ethics. Be a competitive advantage.

“But yet, he's before we hit that wonderful mix of stories.”

Wow, I mean, what a mix. Love the mix, Jack. Nick, when it comes to technology, the next frontier is actually your rear. That's right, Besties, because the most cutting-edge new wearable out there is a Fitbit for flatulance.

Yeah. What the Apple Watch did for our hearts, this new device does for our hearts. And more specifically, it's for your gastrointestinal health. If you got kids in the back seat, they're going to love this story. Get this.

Scientists at the University of Maryland of prototype to sensing device that you clipped to the seat of your underwear. Basically, you're placing this thing on the ground zero of your GI tract.

And the goal is to measure something we humans have never measured before.

The average number of dudes from one human being, and figure out why some of us pass gas more than others. So they're asking participants to track their food along the way as well. And see, if the correlates with their hearts, because 40% of American adults, yes, we're looking at you.

You got tummy issues. We hear you. guilty.

“And the key to digestive Nirvana could be this Fitbit of Farts.”

So Jack, can we please talk about the demand over there? I can smell it from here. 4,000 people have already applied to test version one of this Farty Fitbit. Because Besties, we have put a man on the mood. We have split the atom.

We have to take in seeds out of a watermelon. And yet, we still don't know the skinny on the stink. So finally, science and venture capitalists are getting the answers for us. By the way, the current record, 175 times in one day. But who's kind?

You know who you are. Actually, this company's company's company's company. Yeah. That's all business. I'll check.

That's it. 1,000 years before this song, 2 boys from the Northeast met in the dark, they had an idea to cause the cultural storm, it's the best one yet, but the best is not Jack, Nick, that's good. I don't even do anything to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. Team Boy City on your act.

Liz, if you know you know 'cause we're rich ago, we can't wait no more. So just start to show you. 1st, a quick word from our sponsor. I'm Teresa and my experience in all entrepreneurs started with Shopify erfolgreich. I'm sure that's the first day.

And the platform makes me no problem. I have a lot of problems but the platform is not one of them. I have the feeling that Shopify is a platform to continue to optimize. Everything is super, easy to integrate and balance.

And the time and the money that I can never invest in, for all of them.

Now the cost of the test of Shopify.de. 4-hour first story. The war in Iran is already affecting markets in predictable and surprising ways. So we want to talk about your war folio. And want to know what to do?

We'll don't pay attention to finance and fundamentals. Pay attention to generals and geopolitics. Yeti's on Monday, 48 hours after the first strike. Global financial markets got the first reactions to the U.S. Israeli attack on Iran. And stock started out the day lower.

Yes, it is. Because military spending is not an ideal way to grow the economy. But more importantly, something we've warned you about before. It's the U-word uncertainty. We already had a ton of uncertain question marks in this economy.

Inflation, tariffs, AI, the midterm elections. I mean, nothing gives investors the EIC, like uncertainty. So add that to the cocktail. War in the Middle East, including two of the biggest militaries in the region and the world's superpowers. So the most obvious sector impacted by this war is the oil market.

Oil was already up 20% so far this year as the U.S. built up a military presence. It jumped another 7% on Monday. Because Iran is ranked somewhere between number 6 and number 9 in the world in terms of oil production.

Plus, Iran's retaliation has attacked seven major oil producing countries with drone missiles already. I check you see one Saudi refineries already hit by an Iranian drone just yesterday. And also just yesterday, the straight of Hormuz was shut down by Iran.

That's where one third of the world's oil by sea actually flows.

Add it all up in several Wall Street analysts are seeing oil rise to 100 bucks a barrel if this drags on for the first time since the pandemic. And oil seeps into every look and cranny of our economy. A little bit so vast. These let's pause the pod for a sec. That's the macro situation here, right Jack.

Stocks are down, oil prices is up. But what about the micro situation? Yeah, let's go from like a satellite view to a street view like from the coaches box to the quarterbacks. How do we see Jack? Looking at the warfolio, stocks of oil exporting nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates.

Stocks of those countries could actually rise because they sell oil, which is now more expensive. Because higher oil prices are good for oil producers. So exon mobile? Yeah, they're stock and pop 4% open to day on Monday. But oil importing nations that don't have their own version of Texas or the Permian Basin in their backyard.

Yeah, would I like Japan, India, the European Union. They would be hurt the most if oil prices remain high.

“And Jack, can we please talk about the airline and cruise line stocks as a result of that?”

Well, one third of their operating costs are jet fuel or oil.

Those are oil-binging businesses. So delta stock fell 3% start the week and carnival drops 7% onward their business model. Just got stuck in the middle seat. Basically, the air they breathe is now 25% more expensive than the beginning of the year. And speaking of airlines, Jack, one of Iran's early targets, who was it?

Interestingly, the Dubai airport. I had a friend who's flight was just canceled. They are stuck indefinitely because Dubai's airport was closed. The people in charge of Iran must be thinking, if they can disrupt international air travel, that gives them some sort of leverage against the United States and Israel right now.

So Iran is targeting transportation. And since a lot of the world's trade goes through that straight of hormones just outside of Iran, your team will haul could be TBD. A top story in fashion right now is the one Iran. She and already proactively sent emails to customers telling them to expect delays.

And by the way, like Jack said, oil seems to every part of the economy. So higher oil prices can cause higher overall inflation. Yeah, we've seen this before. As the price of oil rises, literally the price of everything rises. Even Chipotle, they got to get their avocados from Mexico.

That's not getting your local burrito without a truck. And higher inflation? That might put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher longer. So yeah, this could end up affecting your home too. I mean, Jack, you were just talking about refinance in your home this summer,

the warning run, not good for mortgage rates. And just to put a bow on top of all of this, Jamie Diamonds, CEO of JP Morgan Chase told us yesterday that he expects a higher risk of terror and cyber attacks as a result of the war in Iran. Quite a bow.

“So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at the warning run and they're worthless?”

Now is the time to listen to generals and geopolitics. Not finance or fundamentals. Now, yeah, he's Jack and I follow Ian Bremmer of the Erasure Group. And funny story actually ran into a Monday at talk at last summer, Jack. And so I started chatting with him and just told him we love following him.

Very nice guy. Also very nerdy guy. Well, he specializes in geopolitical risks to the markets. And this is wild. In his list of top global risks for 2026 comes out every January.

Everyone looks at that list. Iran wasn't even mentioned. He didn't even mention it. It goes to show that nobody knows what's going to happen. But the biggest driver of how this war affects your business and wallets,

it's what actually happens in Iran. Now there's some nuance here. Active generals are under political pressure to paint a rosy picture of the situation. Foreigner generals give a different perspective. Although they may have some negativity bias.

But the most critical question to everything is will this be a long,

“drawn out expensive Middle East war, like a rack in Afghanistan in the 2000s?”

Or will it be a Swiss victory? Like Operation Desert Storm in the 1990s. Finance and fundamentals won't tell us anything about that question. But generals and geopolitics do. Four hours second story.

Dutch Bros is now the third largest coffee chain in America, but it's not actually a coffee chain. Dutch Bros is just cosplaying as a coffee chain. Yes they are. Hot coffee is just 10% of their business.

But besties first. Last month went to the Starbucks investor day. Got to meet the CEO and he knows the first thing Jack told me about the guy. I forget what it done. Said this dude is locked in. Nicky had a great pleasure that was the same color Starbucks screen.

I love that he did that firm handshake that dude is locked in. Because besties Starbucks owns 48% of the US coffee market by sales. But their last five years had been their decaffinated era. And Starbucks isn't just filling the heat from darling and dunk it out of the neck.

Starbucks is filling the heat from the bros. The Dutch Bros.

“Dutch Bros founded by third generation dairy farmers in Oregon,”

who happen to have some extra reason on the side.

They're now to 1100 locations in the $9 billion stock market value.

That's more than a lift. Dutch Bros is now the number three coffee chain in America by revenue. With drinks that sound like WWE pro wrestlers. I'm sorry who ordered the annihilator or the double to a church. That can I interest you in the chocolate cookie.

$2 million of revenue per location per year. That's twice as good as Starbucks. Maybe it's because they call their baristas, bro-wistas. But either way this yet is this, is what Jack and I find fascinating about the Dutch Bros.

Despite being in the same industry as Starbucks and trying to beat Starbucks in their own game. Dutch Bros has made the opposite corporate strategic decisions. Yeah, we got some wild examples. Your first Starbucks is the third place. It's the place to hang, to nap, to write that great next American novel.

Dwell is actually a KPI that Starbucks management pursues. True story. We've told you about it. And yet, every Dutch Bros location has a drive through. In fact, some are drive through only or have a pickup window.

There's not a table at the whole company. Another example. Well, the majority of Starbucks sales happen in the morning. It's become part of your work habit. But the majority of Dutch Bros sales happen in the afternoon.

It's a sweet treat. But the biggest difference between these two chains is something Dutch Bros just revealed to the Wall Street Journal. Dutch Bros confess they're not actually a coffee chair. They're an energy drink chain.

Get this. 90% of Dutch Bros drinks are served cold. Cup of Joe? That's less than 10% of their sales. They're all about the energy drinks.

Caffeine. But from not the bean. You are more numbers here. Here we go. Custom energy drinks.

What does that look like at Dutch Bros Jack? One out of every four orders. True. They develop their own proprietary energy drink brand called rebel. Yeah.

And you can get it frozen. You can get it every color of the rainbow. You can get it with Boba T on top. Boba balls. You can get a punch in your face if you want.

It's just like how Starbucks owns Frappuccino IP. Dutch Bros owns its own energy drink brand. And the reason is simple. The market for energy drinks is growing faster than the market for coffee.

So basically put your money with mojo is.

And that's not a bad reason to own Dutch Bros stock. But also given the record high coffee bean prices out there. A sugar energy drink. That is a profit puppy. Another reason to own Dutch Bros stock.

Although reason not to is the only coffee chain with a defibrillator on hand with every Bro he's done. And now we know why. True. If a customer walks out with a large gummy bear lemonade with 111 grams of sugar in there.

That's a real number. You might want to proactively call the ambulance for that customer. It's the same amount of sugar as 10 crispy cream glazed donuts. Does a jar of raw sugar count as an energy drink? Jack, that's not a drink.

That's a Halloween trick or treat bag.

“So what's to take away for our energy drink buddies over at Dutch Bros?”

Dutch Bros. It's actually a cosplay company. Now, yet he's you know cosplay. Jack does it on weekends. When people dress up as their favorite characters like Superheroes.

Well, a cosplay company dresses up as an industry. That's not actually their core business. For example, the New York Times, they're not really a news company. They're a gaming and cooking company. Because a majority of their profits do not come from news subscriptions.

Amazon? It's not actually any commerce company. No majority of their profits come from cloud computing and advertising. And Dutch Bros just isn't a coffee chain. It's an energy drink drive throw.

It just dresses up like a coffee company because you'd never admit going to an energy

Drink chain every day. Sometimes yet he's a brand mask. They're true core business. They wear a corporate costume. And we call that a cosplay company.

Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, Anthropic, open AI and the Pentagon are in a high stakes game of the summer I turned pretty, basically. And these are brand defining moments for the leaders of AI. We are seeing who they really are right now.

And the spoiler Anthropic is like Apple, open AI is like Zuck. But yet he's on Friday. The US government declared war on Anthropic. I think we need a record scratch here. Secondary of war.

Pete Heggsiff designated the cloud owner Anthropic as they get this supply chain risk. A supply chain risk is a designation we've only ever given to foreign companies. Not a US company like Anthropic. So it looks that like Harvard University Anthropic is being punished for refusing to bend on a corporate principle.

And this could really hurt. Oh yeah, because Heggsiff demands any company doing business with US government. Not do business with Anthropic. That's a supply chain risk. That's what happens.

“But Jack, this could also really help Anthropic, right?”

Cloud is number one in the app store right now. It seems like they're getting a band bump situation. So either way with all this beef and Anthropic said it would suit

and basically wear that Scarlet letter until it's over.

Or get the Scarlet letter removed. Just what they're serving for. But Jack, funny thing. Who's loving this beef and right now? Open AI is Nick.

Sam Alvin swooped in to sign his own deal with the DOD. Literally hours after Anthropic got blacklisted by them. And what Sam Alvin thinking Jack and if you could put this in mean girls context, I would appreciate it. He's thinking it's better to be in the plastics and hating life

than to be out of the plastics. Well, but side note by the way, besties. Despite the breakup, the Department of Defense actually used Anthropic in their attacks on Iran. You see, there's a six month wind down to this whole relationship.

“But the big question you must be wondering in the story.”

What was open AI willing to deal with the government? That Anthropic wasn't willing to deal with the government. Basically, what was the safe word? And don't they establish the red lines? Nick, there were two red lines that Anthropic insisted

being the teases in their deal with the US Department of Defense. Ah, the old terms and conditions, and what were those two red lines, Jack? Anthropic's AI could not be used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans, and it could not be used for fully autonomous weapons. Now, on the other hand, open AI says that federal law

already forbids the military from domestic mass surveillance, so they think they're all good there already. But Anthropic and legal experts disagree, and Anthropic refused to capitulate. And the reason?

Well, why don't you picture every James Bond movie you've ever seen? You know, the really nerdy scientist, Q, love Q.

It's always got spectacles, and he's always explaining to James Bond

the key bad guy's rap sheet, and his whole backstory. And Q knows all the details about this guy. He even knows where the bad guy's mother-in-law went to college. He gets all the details. That kind of profile building, it's legal for the government

to connect deep personal, even invasive feeling research like that on someone.

“But here's the key, because it had to be done manually”

by a human, it is historically been limited. But with AI, that kind of profile building, could be scalable to all of a government citizens. So Anthropics interpreting that situation and saying, "You know what? I'm going to sit this one out."

They refused to have their AI be used for a mass domestic surveillance situation. Because somewhere to what China has already done, theoretically, the government could very quickly know everything about us. Easter violence state that could lead to abuse. But a very well-paid lawyer at Open AI gave Sam Altman cover

and said, "This kind of AI surveillance won't happen based on existing law. Go ahead, sign the deal with the DOD you're good to go." So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies? Look at how the AI industry is going to shake out.

Our ethics, a competitive advantage, can morals become a mode. Can principles lead to profits? For each Jack, yeah, these last year, we told you about Anthropics' Claude Cafe.

An AI coffee shop in the West Village with a line at the door. It was a marketing move. It was. They wanted you to associate Anthropics brand with artistry. They wanted to say, "There AI doesn't replace human creativity. It supports it."

But the besties with this pentagon beef Anthropics trying to add, kind of another nuance to its brand. It's trying to add morality. The CEO of Anthropics set on 60 minutes on Sunday that he's doing the patriotic thing by putting his foot down.

He thinks morality is part of being American. That is literally what he said. But while Anthropics is willing to be punished for its principles, open AI is more anything goes. Anthropics is acting like Apple in this situation.

Exactly, Jack. The way Apple treats privacy. Building their brand on one cardinal value. Like when Apple refused to give the FBI access to someone's eye messages and they said it was because of privacy.

Well, what Anthropics doing now is because of safety and morals. On the other hand, though, open AI, they're kind of looking more like meta. Right, Jack? It's more of a zucky move they're doing. We're willing to bend their principles if it leads to profits. Class, exact.

So besties added all up and this leads to the big question we're asking you and you should drop in the comments. Our ethics and competitive advantage can morals become a mode and can principles transform to profits. Jack, fresh off the flight.

“Can you whip up the takeaways for us for tea voy Tuesday?”

Our first story was the war in Iran.

It caused stocks to fall initially on Monday. Although the S&P 500 actually ended slightly up at the end. So, what comes next for the war folio? Well, finance and fundamentals won't tell us, but generals and geopolitics will.

For our second story, Dutch Bros is actually worth four times more per location than Starbucks is. Because the Dutch Bros are a cosplay company. They dress up like a coffee chain, but they're actually an energy during chain.

And our third and final story is Anthropics. They got blacklisted by the Department of War. And opening AI immediately swooped into replace them. Oh, they saw the beef and they brought a fork. One of them is going the principal route, the app route.

Well, the other one's going the profitable route, the Zuck route. But yet, these pods not over yet.

First, pause the pods, sweet green no longer a sound business. They just ordered a stack of tortillas and they're selling salad wraps. Yeah, sweet green is launching wraps now. Yeah, which is basically just a salad with a blanket around it. And it becomes like on the go company with the addition of this tortilla.

Never felt more comforted.

Bloomberg actually just did a deep dive. And how sweet green's first french fry was kind of a soggy failure, unfortunately. But Hall of Fame yet a man to win and ask this strategic question. Well, sweet green wraps bring in new customers.

“Or will they cannibalize salad sales from old ones?”

The answer is in the arugula. And second, Apple just announced a new iPhone at a nowhere. The 17E, it's like iPhone 17, but 200 bucks cheaper. Now, Apple's not stopping there. They're releasing at least five new very marginal product updates later this week.

And finally, Gen Z apparently misses the office. Get this out of all the generations. The one most opposed to fully remote work is Gen Z Jenny. It's from a Gallup poll, just 23% of 20 somethings want to work fully remote. Now time for the best fact yet.

This one, an answer to yesterday's tea boy inside of trivia. Jack, you ready for this? Oh yeah, okay. So yesterday, we did a whole story of Netflix. And our question was Netflix started as a DVD company.

They nailed their final DVD just three years ago. But what was their most popular DVD of all time? And my guess was finding Nemo.

“Because I'm pretty sure finding Nemo is the best selling DVD of all time.”

Okay, the most popular Netflix DVD of all time is the blind side. The 2009 football movie was Sandra Bollock. Wait, 2009 streaming was already around. I know, I know. And yet Sandra Bollock may be the biggest profit puppy in Netflix's history.

That is you are looking fantastic out there. Jack, you were glowing the whole show. You know what, by the way? We got to share tomorrow's show. We may have the best guest yet for our DC show.

This is incredible. She's amazing. A Washington DC show is a week from tomorrow, March 11th. At the Arlington draft house. Great venue. We'll announce the guest interview tomorrow.

It's so good. We have tickets still available by yours now.

“Because we're going to sell out after we announce the guest.”

You got to grab them now. In the meantime, H.O.H.T.B.O.I. and Jack and I. We'll see you again. And before we go, a happy birthday to the best one yet. Hey, girl, Alex, come here.

Jack, you want to take it for me? It's a golden birthday. It's absolutely gorgeous and loving mother of three in a phenomenal wife of my audience. And Brandon Torres, father to Camille and puppy Walter, is the Iron Man trainer with the best birthday in Woodbridge, Virginia.

Happy birthday to Michael Chang, the first birthday in Seattle as a father.

And Avenue Petal is biking for his birthday down in Sunnyvale, California. Happy birthday to charities turning 33 on 33. This Brooklynite moved to Paris to study luxury brands. And to Nikhil and the entire intention design team. Thank you for sending us the best standing desks yet.

Jack and I are going to use them in our live show in Austin. We love them. Great work guys. Oh, and a big shout out to Edward Lock of Los Angeles, who created PauseThePod.com,

which tracks our episodes and our takeaways. It's wonderful work. We are going to share more on this. But in the meantime-- I want to know if it was vibe-coated or not.

In the meantime, Edward, we wanted to give you the shout out, but we can't wait to talk with you.

That was incredible what you did.

Also, speaking of our live show, Marny Kane and Grace Kim. Big shout out. Because we shared the product of her work at our live show, which is our brand pyramid.

Yeah, if you're curious about our brand strategy, then S. Cargo Studio is the one who did it. And it's the best brand strategy. Yeah, guys, everything we do. [ Music ]

This is Jack. I'm Stock and Netflix. Nick and I both on stock of Apple and Chipotle, and we both on ETFs of the S&P 500.