NBA Panic Rankings, NFL Draft Guesses, and a Michael Jackson Movie Review | With Todd McShay, Steve Muench, and Van Lathan - Free Transcript | The Bill Simmons Podcast

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“I put up a new rewatchables on Monday with the kindergarten copy.”

It is available on Netflix as well. Next week, Ghostbusters, which you can also watch on Netflix. That's coming with me in Van Lathen and Chris Ryan. We have some ringer stuff for you. Sean Fantasy, you might have heard from him.

To the big picture, I've worked with him since 2012. He put up a new newsletter today that you can subscribe to about movies. Did it with the Ringer and Substack and Spotify? It's called "Projections." He'll be writing about movies at least once a week.

You like Sean? I'm pretty confident you're going to like the newsletter. He's going to be on here Thursday to discuss it. Jordan Khan, who's been with us since Grant Land, came to us along when we started the ringer. One of the best long-form writers in the country.

A new book that came out today called American Men. It's excellent. If you like reading books, I would recommend it.

And then, Legata, the third episode of that podcast, which I told you.

If you like Scarface and my advice and 80s cocaine, all that stuff. This is the podcast for you. Legata, the third episode is up now. On this podcast, I'm going to be reacting to all the basketball tonight. Plus the basketball yesterday at the very top of this.

And then I have Todd McShay and Steve Mensch. We taped our lives today. Whole bunch of NFL draft stuff. All of our thoughts. I threw some crazy stuff at them.

Are there going to be any crazy wrinkles? What's going to happen in this draft? Covered it off. And then last but not least, Van Lathen came on because he saw the Michael Jackson movie. And he thought it was abominable.

And we talked about the movie and the state of biopics and documentaries. And all the stuff that seems to be going in the wrong direction these days. So that's all coming up next.

I'm going to join you right after the break first project.

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It is 1023 Pacific Time on Tuesday night because I stupidly stayed up until the end of this slakers rocket's game. Thinking something spectacular would happen.

And it was spectacular if a rock fight that almost injured people in the first couple rows

in the seats were spectacular with all the bricks and air balls. Oh my god, it was so bad. I'd like to apologize to Gahaud and Eduardo who are behind the scenes team. I made them stay up late. Now they have to put this podcast up because I thought it would be worth it.

It wasn't worth it. We should have done this two hours ago. Katie came back. So that was a wildcard. He had nine turnovers.

Four, four, five in the fourth quarter.

“Part of his fault, but also like a, why is he out there?”

B, why is he doing so much? Because he clearly didn't see 100% re-chepard. This might have been it for E-mail and re-chepard. Nicky played. What do I have here?

Ten minutes. Oh for four for re-chepard. The number three pick of the 2024 NBA draft. One pick ahead of Stefan Castle. Houston, they changed stuff up.

They pressured a game late with that idea. When you have Marcus Spartan, the bronze James and Luke Canard break in the ball. Why not pressure those guys down before feet. Jaden McDaniel style. They didn't do that.

I looked it up. Nobody has ever been fired during a series before. So I think he made a joke is safe probably until after the series. But they're down. Oh two.

And the big thing for me. The fact that they didn't trade for C.J. McCollum at any point. They're in the season before it later got him. It's just bonkers. It felt like the natural thing that was going to happen after Van Vuey got hurt.

And the salary is kind of lined up. Houston has a bunch of extra picks. Washington basically, you know, they were ready to give away McCollum. They finally ended up putting him in a trading deal. Which really they're taking trading off at Lannis Hans.

McCollum goes and he's one of the stars of the game two.

And one of the potential stars of the playoffs.

“He's almost becoming a villain for an M.S.G.”

with the New York fans, even though as he said after the game, I'm a police villainy guy possible. I don't know why Houston didn't trade for him. I don't get it. They thought they were good with the team.

Like they like having been bleed around. We can't play till next year. Like worst case scenario. He just opt out of his contract. You can resign him.

But it's weird to me that they didn't do anything. And the email clearly doesn't trust. Re-chepard. So can the Lakers actually pull this off? Because we got info today.

Maybe Luka wouldn't be around until round two. That maybe Reeves was actually a better option to come back. I'm looking at the playoff odds right now. Houston. Wow.

Lakers minus. They're up to nothing in the series with the game seven in home. And they're minus one twenty have fandle. Because everybody's like, well, baby Houston's going to turn around. I don't know.

The team I watched tonight. I don't see it. I mean, just to come back from two oh in a series. The percentages are against you. But the way they do the chemistry and the court.

To rent and I look at a hundred percent. Shengun looks like he's already on redfin. Look at at Milwaukee houses for the inevitable. You're on a straight that I'm starting to feel like it happened. Could the Lakers do this?

And I don't know why I'm excited about it because I hate the Lakers. But it would just be more fun to have them in the next series. If Luka can come back against OKC. By the way, OKC. Big winner of round one.

Right.

But like when be when be gets can cost, which we'll talk about in a second.

But that series looks like it's going to go longer. Denver, Minnesota is going to be a war. Meanwhile, OKC is going to cruise to round one. And then they're going to get one of these two teams and round two. Holy shit.

Panic rankings. I wanted to take you into the NBA panic room really quick. I have the rockets now number one because if you lose this series. If you lose this series to this Lakers team, you got to be kidding me. Yeah.

So you got to be kidding me. That would be just one of the dumbest playoff losses I could remember. You're 41 year old, the broad. Luka Nard, who anybody could have had. Mark a smart in corner three.

Jackson Hayes is out there. I just can't believe it. How many lottery picks does Houston have? I think.

“I think they had five or six guys who were taking like in the top five of the lottery.”

Oh my god. Anyway, I've used the number one. And I blame Houston for the fact that it's 1027. I'm doing a podcast right now. Anyway, number two.

The spurs. Wendy gets concussed on the night that he is given the defense. A pair of the year award. And it looked bad immediately. It was not great.

And in football, the concussion protocol is like at least a week. Who knows with basketball? He's definitely not going to be in game three. But maybe he comes back for a game four. But at the very least Portland steals one.

If you're staying in Tony out, there's some questions that come out of that game. That I had already been thinking about when he comes out of it. Obviously, he's their best offense of player. But my fear with them all along was like shot creation in half court. When you're in a playoff atmosphere, and you've got to create shots.

And really it was just Fox Fox was the only everything was on Fox and Portland. Portland could kind of shut it down. And then it comes down to Drew Holiday who had 1659 classic Drew winning basketball. Get's the block in the corner. Get's the go ahead basket on the on the put back on an air ball.

Like always in the right place right time.

That's why they traded for him. And then the Scoot Henderson game 31 points. So Nick Wright texted me this. He now has 10 more career playoff points than Wemby. I feel like I'm still in it was good. Can't give up yet.

I thought Scoot was awesome. Now he'd won rebound in zero says, but the defense and the fearlessness in the athleticism was what we thought it might be. It might be when when, you know, I was arguing him versus Brandon Miller and I conceded to KOC, sorry Kevin O'Connor, I conceded to you two months ago that you won the brain and Miller versus Scooter. I mean, I feel like I'm alive. I just climbed out of the coffin. And congrats to Portland owner, El Chepo, who, who the guys after the game, they're reporting tap water on each other because he probably didn't have alcohol in the locker room.

But El Chepo gets a win. Now they go back to Portland for game three. No t-shirts for those fans because those t-shirts are expensive. That anyway, the spurs.

“I have them at the top here in the panic because if they don't have Wemby for either of these Portland games, I think Portland's legitimately good.”

Like, Toronto bogus five seed, just bogus for the capital big.

Houston bogus five seed.

Not capital B bogus, but bogus. Portland, Frisky seven seed.

“Like, I think Portland's a better playoff team than they're used in or Toronto.”

So, you're going to Portland.

The energy is going to be amazing. El Chepo is going to be shooting out probably used t-shirts out of 50-year-old kidding t-shirt candidates.

I can't wait for this weekend. But we'll see what others spurs have in them without Wemby. They signed a new coordinate over the summer, who is one of the best free agents signings of the summer. Big game for him, obviously, game three, game four. They're going to need a lot more from him. But as crazy as it sounds, like Portland, this could be a long series.

And I don't think Portland's going to go away. This is a team that knows who they are, really good defensively. Come on, I thought they had a great job down the stretch. And a little fight to your adversaries. I think San Antonio was minus 1,400 heading into the series.

So, it's a 1-1 going back to Portland. We're definitely not going to have one to be for game three. We'll see. That is my number two panic team. So, Houston, San Antonio. Number three is Detroit. They're playing tomorrow night.

They got their ass kicked at home and game one. And they've lost 12, 11 straight playoff games. This would be the 12th that they lose game two. Orlando is a ton of confidence. Their catch in this Orlando team, they're just at a 180.

That hit rock bottom, crawled out of it. We talked about it on Sunday night. And might not give a shit anymore. It might just feel like fuck it. Maybe we're better than these guys.

This is a Norman Dale and Hoosier's moment for JB Picker's stuff. And the pistons. This is JB, look at these guys. Maybe they're right about us. Maybe we weren't a one seed.

He's got to start challenges them a little bit.

“I think this Detroit Orlando game went tonight.”

A must watch. I think it's going to be violent. I expect like I don't know if you're watching the hockey. But Bruins Buffalo almost had two different bench going braels. It brought me back to 1988 when I really loved the Bruins the most of 70s and 80s.

And we played Buffalo. I think it was 600 plus penalty minutes in a six game series. And multiple bench going fights. Guys just fighting every game. The same guys like Jay Miller.

I think that we had really played. I think they had Clark Gillies. I forget they had another fighter, but just to every game. The same guys were fighting. I don't think Detroit Orlando is going to be like that.

But I think it's going to get feisty tomorrow. I think this is one of those Detroit's going to lay this back down. Try to give the physicality. I think Orlando likes what it gets physical. They like that kind of action.

And that's a must watch. But I would be really nervous if I'm Detroit. Because Orlando, you know, there's two kinds of upsets.

There's the filly kind that we'll talk about in the second against Boston and game two.

And there's the we actually belong on the court. It might be better than you guys upset. And I felt like Orlando in that one. Now they're nine point underdogs in game two. Which I think is too high.

There's a lot of data going for the home team gets blown out. The game one has a big favorite. And Zach talked about that on Sunday.

“But I think Orlando composed these guys.”

So Detroit's my number three. The nuggets are number four. First nuggets last yesterday at 33 days. I have multiple concerns coming out of the game. One Aaron Gordon, not healthy.

I thought he got banged up in different ways and game one. And then game two just didn't look like himself. So he was room protection. You lose the crazy athleticism. You lose the reckless threes in the corner that go in.

All that stuff. I didn't think he seemed like the same guy. Not his fault. I just think he's banged up. I think he's been banged up all year.

Second biggest thing. Yoke is threes. Which we've seen come and go in the playoffs. If you really put a beating on him, which Minnesota did. Minnesota had Randall beating on him.

They go bare beating on him. They had elbows. Not as reads beating on him. And they just tried to wear him down. And it got to the point.

It felt like they were leaving them open a little bit. And I think he was one for seven. A lot was made out of the go bear. One of them with defense against Joker. I didn't think that's why they won.

I thought they won because the physicality of all four quarters.

Combined with the third thing I want to mention.

McDaniels, you know, you could see what the game plan was in game two. It's like McDaniels is going to hound Jamal Murray 94 feet. And I don't know why more teams don't do this when you have a jay to McDaniels. But I thought Murray was just gasped in the fourth quarter. Because McDaniels was just wearing him down and in his t-shirt.

Which is I think he was the t-shirt and started inside the jersey. Which I support. I thought he warmed down. So you have McDaniels 94 feet. You go bear the one on one day.

You have aunt with the room protection. You have Randall and Nasrid being super physical. And then you have different chenzo with some big ball shots.

You have bones highland as just the random Dionwaters.

We might have to rename Dionwaters on rewatchables.

And then you have on offense. Everyone attacking the rim.

“Because they know if Gordon's a little compromised.”

Joker's not really a shopwalk or they're going. So when I think about upsets. I said this after game one Nasak. Even a Minnesota didn't play that well. I felt like the physicality they seem very comfortable.

And I thought it was a little concerning after game one. They didn't play that well. But they still were in the vicinity of winning the game. Game two super comfortable. And it's a team that thinks they're better than Denver.

So if I'm a nuggets fan. A more concern that I was four days ago that I was getting out of this series. They were three to one to win the series. Now I'm concerned. I'm also concerned what happens if I get out of this series.

Because now I'm put in San Antonio. I have a lot of miles on me from round one. And then I still have OKC waiting for me in round three. And they're going to do all the same physical beat you up stuff. That Minnesota's doing.

Now this was the case. I thought Denver was going to make the funnels. The case against it was the road is too hard. And the way this is playing out. That case might have been right.

I've met have been wrong. I thought Minnesota was alive. Potential could put it together from four rounds. But and who'd name it seem like it was 100% healthy all the time yesterday. Combined with McDonald's coming back from injury.

I just didn't think they were going to be able to put it together like that. But man. They looked like a conference finalist last night.

So these two either of these teams playing San Antonio is going to be an incredible series.

And I thought last night I thought that was like watching a game five of the conference finals level quality of basketball. I loved it. I'd be nervous if I was Denver. I wouldn't be quite as nervous if I'm the next. But I'm a little nervous because game two against Atlanta.

It picks some scabs for me. Right. There are we two brunts in centric. Are we sure Mike Brown is a good coach. Is McCowbridge is playing tonight.

Oh, he's played 32 minutes. I didn't realize it. Oh, he took the last shot of the game with five seconds left. I forgot he was on the team. They had a bunch of that stuff going.

The backup guards. McBride was bad. Shaman was bad. So they got nothing really from their bench. Other than Clark some made a couple plays.

And the town's piece of it.

“Now, my next fan friends were like, why didn't town's get the ball tomorrow?”

You know, why were we so brunts in centric? McCowbridge was doing a good job on town. So I think it was a combination of views being really physical. They found something with that small ball lineup. And if I was the next an hour, I'd read it for the next.

That they now make me the most nervous other than Josh Hart. It was the best part of my team in game two. I would be nervous that Alexander Walker in Jalen Johnson. Jalen Johnson did not shoot well in the second game, and it's one to one. And they're going back where I think they're pretty good in Atlanta.

So I'd be nervous that Alexander Walker hasn't gone yet. And then the CJ McCollen piece was doing getting to whatever spot he wanted. You have these two wings. And it'll be in bridges that you've traded all this capital and big big contracts to. And over and over again, he was just getting away from those guys and trying to repeatedly get brunts in on him.

McCombs like having this is a moment for him, right? This is the afterthought in Portland.

Dame's teammate put it a million trade rumors.

He got mad at me publicly a couple times. Kind of bounces around ends up in Washington. Become such an afterthought that Houston does need to trade for him. And now he's he's wearing it now. He's ready to to to be the foil in the next series.

So I would be wouldn't be crazy nervous if I was the next. What are the odds in this series? Yeah, minus 174 on Fandel. That seems about right. I thought the next we're going to win in six.

I still think that. But the CJ piece was unexpected. We'll see if he can keep it going. And then the last one for our panic team, the Celtics. So I would have right on the bottom here.

First of all, in game twos, I don't know what happens to them. They're five and five in their last 10 playoff home game twos. They lost to the next last chair Miami and Cleveland in 24. And the Miami game was one of the dumbest losses of all time. They lost to Miami in 23.

Then they lost today. Filly did exactly what I thought they're going to do. They shot a bunch of threes. Edgecomb got hot. I think he was six for 10.

He had a 30 and 10 was super comfortable. And then Maxie got going a little bit. The Celtics were playing this just insanely dumb drop coverage. That I didn't understand for the life for me.

“And giving up. I think it was ninety one eighty nine.”

Boston has the ball about taking the Tatum jacks up a bad three. And then Maxie, I think it two straight threes on that stupid drop coverage.

The Celtics were 13 for 50 from three.

In Sean Grande, my friend. Who does radio for the Celtics said regular season in playoffs. That's the 12th time in the last 161 games. The Celtics have failed to shoot better than 26% from three. And they've lost all 12 including game one and game two against the next.

And then this game last night. So the question is total aberration or are they starting to look a little like. Nick series Celtics last year. I will say. The two things that scare me a tiny bit.

Derek White has. Really been bad from threes is January 1st. He's under thirty one percent from three now. He's two for ten tonight. And the next scene. The six are seemed. Totally fine with him shooting from three.

“Whereas I think in November and December, we're not have been as fine.”

He got to the point out was wondering if they might take him out and put Schiremernin,

which was the second thing I didn't understand.

Schiremern only played a live minute. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months.

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He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months.

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He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months. He's been a super sub for the last couple months.

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McShayan mentioned here.

They are here all week.

Doing. Potomac Shay show. The Mac Shay show, which is behind us. I like that little fancy thingy. Yeah.

So we're using your set. I love it.

“Hey, last time I talked to you, we went.”

I wasn't that excited about the draft and then you kind of 45 minutes later. You've fluffed me a little bit. Yeah. You got me a little excited about it. He's a great fluffer.

Barely excited by the end. Now I'm way more excited.

There's, there's never a bad draft, man.

That's the thing. Like even the. It's their favorite. It came in value. There's never a bad draft.

There's bad drafts. There's no players. Right. Yeah. But it's like Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving is always going to be good. Yeah. At some point, there's going to be food tea. And it always gets hectic. There's always family drama.

That's just the same thing here. And then, like, I got lied to. I think about the Jets pick. And that's okay. I'm here for.

I think so. I did see you did a little switch. Of course. Yeah. Yeah.

I didn't. By the way, like the draft's not here. We'll see what happens. But I get the strong sense that the Jets worth getting that out there.

I always get nervous about, because I was the only one saying our bell Reese.

So. And then a couple other people a little bit. But I always get nervous when everyone all of a sudden on a Monday. After a weekend, I've seen the same thing. So the Jeremiah loved thing.

I just, I worry about that at number three. But it looks like Bailey. And they're doing a good job of being really quiet about it. Even though there's really no reason to be quite outside of. Hey, everyone thinks we're taking Bailey.

But really trying to fake out. Listen. David Bailey. I actually had that this internal conversation myself. David Bailey's been kind of what everyone in league circles has kind of assumed, right?

For a while. Let's throw out there. We might take our bell Reese to see if someone's more interested in Reese. And get the, you know, because there's people talking about Arizona. We're going to move on.

Which ever past Russia doesn't go to go to go to. We, you know, the pick is open in Arizona. Number three. Why not? Why not get the phone calls?

“I have a feeling that that's what was going on.”

The only thing I don't like about this theory is it's the jets that involves foresight, a plan. Understand. Strategy. Like chess moves moving around. Yeah.

And if it's true. And what I'm kind of surmizing, then I think I think. The moral moji is is doing a pretty good job of managing this thing.

If there are two guys who play the same position, basically.

And people are arguing about which one's better. I'm just, I was parachuting the draft every year, basically knowing nothing and trying to learn. Right. Why wouldn't you take the guy who's two years younger? Is that just two obvious or imagine?

Actually not. You would be, I don't think you'd be surprised. But it's, it's surprising how much is Reese's two years younger. Yeah. If this is put into the, the age for defensive prospects specifically.

But if it was me, I would take the younger guy. It's two years. It's like getting a car from 2024 versus 26. Right. But it's five years. It's a miles.

It's a five year lease. You're not going to keep it for the life of the car. You know what I mean? Yeah. If you like the car better and you get a better lease than take the lease.

But nobody can agree, which one of these guys are better. Why wouldn't I just take the younger guy? I would take our bell Reese, but I've got to have a defensive coach. If I'm the general manager, I've got to have a defensive coach. It can lay out what exactly is the plan to show me how it's going to work.

Because this guy is more talented. Okay. The talent isn't quite developed. He's a one year starter. Yeah.

I was state. So that means higher talent, higher bus potential. Yes. Okay. Yeah.

Someone brought this up on the next. I want to actually mention this by before we've even got on here. But we're talking about the jets again. So if you have a plan for this kid, that's great.

“Is Aaron Clinton going to be their head coach next year?”

Right. Or in October. Or in October. Or in October. Like exactly.

So then then the plans out the window. Or if you're a movesie, are you thinking yourself? I don't know who's going to take out what's next year. I'm going to take the guy he's been playing at just a life. The information I got 10 days ago.

I think it's 10 days now. It was the Sunday before this past Sunday was. What's your football sense if you want the short thing? And the Darrell moogie is is a human risk of version. I've compared it yesterday.

I like it came poly. I like just a human risk of version corporation. Like walking down the street, like everything's about risk. And apparently that's that's kind of his DNA in his makeup. I would argue the better player who the fallback is.

I'm getting deven Lloyd. It that to me is is less risk than drafting David Bailey. And maybe he's just a DPR. It doesn't need a password. And he's not very good versus the run.

So like it's true. But this guy we know can rush the quarterback better than anyone. And this draft. And yes, it's with speed. And yes, he's got to kind of get stronger and all that.

Let's go with the guy that's proven as a pass rusher.

Because that's the most important thing you can do in this league outside of being a quarterback.

Fandel has Reese minus 130 Bailey plus 115 on Tuesday afternoon as we record. Did that flip from yesterday? Yeah. This morning. Yeah.

This morning. I looked and it was like it was still plus 160. And then I looked four hours ago and it was minus 110. So it did shifting rapidly. Yeah.

Betting on the draft is like betting on roulette. Well, doing cocaine. It's like saying the odds are just. Oh, no. Just go crazy.

It all times. I would never do draft bets. The only one that seems like it hits every year is like the more offensive line. And then we thought. Yes.

It seems like every year. So now it's going to be seven. Actually it's 10 because we get in the draft and everybody's like, Oh, fuck. We need a red tackle. Yeah.

Better today than the half. I haven't looked, but I would bet it's an eight and a half. For who take from now or another? Yeah.

So there's going to be a second guard that sneaks in.

Right. I would think like it's from Georgia. Seven and a half.

“Oh, I think that seems like he but fucking bang that one.”

Right. Hold it right now. Let's be at least nine. Take it right now. Yeah.

If you're going to be at least eight. There's seven tackles in one guard. I think not. Yeah. You're right.

It's going to be. Sure. It's going to take somebody. You're not sure if you're sitting there at thirty. Yeah.

Absolutely. Yeah. You put it in right now. No. I'll do it after.

I have a bunch of questions tied to the drafts. But this is my favorite one. What are the giants do at number five?

Because they ask up number ten.

Yeah. If the first four picks. Yep. Okay. Mendoza.

Rease. To the jets. Arizona says fucking takes love. Yep. And then Solana and Tennessee go.

Fuck it. And they take styles. So it goes. Mendoza. Rease loves styles.

Another giants are in the clock. What happened?

“You think they would take Bailey anyway?”

With Bailey. I was told by somebody that. Because even if you flip flopping, it's Bailey. It's Bailey at two. And it's reset five.

Sitting at five either way. I was. I was told, but I don't believe it that they would. They would take the edge rush or best available. They would take the edge rush or best available.