The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

a new episode of the rewatchables coming tomorrow Monday.

“We're going to put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably early mid afternoon, ET, it's a good”

movie. You've heard of it. It's all I'm going to say. We didn't have to move this week. Sometimes you don't have to.

So that's coming. If you missed the ringer fitness football shows, live draft that we did on Friday. It was one of the funniest three hour runs that we've had at the ringer. There's people screaming at each other. There's people gang up on each other, sound made about 25 off the cuff jokes.

People were eating as they were trying to draft. People were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing, ripping it, it was just everything was in play. For a nation, temper tantrums, you name it and it all peaked when all of us colluded to completely square over Danny Hyphitt, who thought he was going to get cute near the

end and get a good QB late and then we just took all the QBs.

“And now his QBs, I think, are Bryce Young, Kim Ward, and somebody, Michael Panics Jr.”

Those are his three QBs for the ringer fitness football draft. So it was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft, a great job by everybody. Great job by the ringer fitness the guys as well. So that happened.

I was going to do a big topper for this episode about the Red Sox Yankees series, but it basically

came down to two plays because they split the double hundred yesterday. The Red Sox moves one nothing on Friday because Raphaella doesn't listen to third-based coach tags anyway. I think Belinger can't throw him out, throws him out, Red Sox lose one nothing. But that was a great old school Yankees stadium, Red Sox Yankees, pennant race game.

I love that one. They didn't like the one as much today, where it felt like it was going to be another one nothing, two one-type game and Raphaella ends up making this great catch for the guy in first base and somehow the first base on fire, who is just atrocious all weekend. Just really atrocious calls it as a bounce catch.

So then there's not enough on the inside to replay the overall because Raphaella is basically bending his glove over and that opened the floodgates in the Yankees. One of the series, three to one and now the Red Sox aren't a lot of trouble for the playoffs because they really need to get to the four seed. I've loved this Red Sox season.

Little weird today, they brought in Roman Anthony and Trevor Story from Worcester and sent down Anthony Saguar and Mickey Gas, Mickey Gasper, who was the hottest left-handed hitter of on the team and the hottest hitter, maybe in the league and sent him down he comes back in 10 days, but I hope it didn't mess with the juju.

Very fun Red Sox season regardless, but always hate losing the Yankees.

Can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one World Series in the last 26 years. I looked it up, 2009, Obama's first term, year one of Obama's first term. Last time they won 17 years ago, so congrats on your win and August. We'll see you in the playoffs, guys.

Football, cousin Salon, I did AFC at FC overrunters. We taped them all once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice, we're wearing the exact same clothes and Joe House is still going to be there

“as our third person and I had five locks that I loved for the NFC and I think I have”

two for this one, you're about to listen to for the AFC, I like the AFC more, but Fandle is still giving everyone five 50% PBTs that you can put based on anything up until the end of August. So if you like any of the locks you're about to hit or if you like anything from the last podcast, like Atlanta under seven and a half or Tampa over eight and a half, I think we had five that I really liked Dallas over Seattle over and then we'll see other under.

I had Washington under. If you like any of those throw those into the little Fandle thing because that was very nice to them to that for us. All right. Without further ado, the AFC overunders for wind totals with me in the cause is next.

We're going to take a break and then bring in project. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life and if I'll Sunday, take it. May and I missed it. Kickoffs coming.

Yeah. We're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday taking YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday, all in one place and it's magnificent and there's no other way to follow the NFL season.

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market games and YouTube TV for local national games, YouTube TV required terms or shirts and embargoes apply, commercially used excluded, no refunds. The American football conference. Curious, why do we do this not on Netflix? This is your conference.

We did mine. The national football conference. The American football conference. Or patriotic. Oh, I see.

Okay. National sounds a little more sinister. The national football conference. You're right. Good to go over.

Okay. The old guard, new guard, old guard, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Burro, they're kind of here. New guard, Drake May, Herbert, Bonix, and good Trevor Lawrence. We've only known for three years.

Old guard coaches, Andy Reed, Harba, Tomlin, McDermott, two of them are gone. Plus Bellcheck. He's gone, too. New guard coaches. Well, even though he's a little older to Miko Ryan's and Cohen, and maybe Kubi Actu plus

you have Peyton and Jim Harba somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year?

“Or this is a the old guard reclaims everything year?”

Interesting. I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four. And it's been the top four for a half a decade, right? Yeah. I'm not ready to move on from the old guard.

So you're old guard. I'm thinking Mahomes specifically, and that's sort of the part of the bracket. All right. I am, where are you? I still believe in, I'm like a half and a half, like half from the old guard.

I think, especially Lamar this year, if he's just not going to run in the same way anymore, Burro is an all-time, previous year where he said three good ones and three, but we'll see what happens. There's a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino watch by my count, maybe three, Burro for

early success, durability, probably rules amount, Lamar, NC's dominance, like a playoff, production, and then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino watch is like the pressure of Oh shit, I might not actually win a Super Bowl in my entire career. I guess would be Marino watch.

I kind of like that. What about your guy? My guy is like 23.

Yeah, but he made it in the second year.

Yeah. Well, he defeated the Marino thing. Yeah. Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially in Marino watch? I like the premise of this.

I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do. Not from me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. Well, you try to say he's the best regular season quarterback.

I got you. I got you. But it's true. It's like, and he's put a big points in playoff games too. Yeah.

In Josh Allen playoff games, the defense is allowed 32 points per game. And the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is.

“Which sucks because that's how you're going to end your season.”

But this guy is consistent as it gets and we'll get to the bill. That sucks.

Shades of going Collins weren't there first.

Oh, man. I just, we got to last. Just keep it believe. You got this. You got this.

You got this. You got this. I can't believe it. Oh, we're an anti-Josh Allen superstar. Oh, super pro.

Okay. I love Josh Allen. I like him too. I don't like this situation is in this season. And we're going to do the AFCs first.

Buffalo. Ten and a half is the over under minus 135 for the division. The Patriots were 14 and three last years, some out in the favorites. Super Bowl, ten and one for the bills minus 340 playoff, five to one, one seed. 13 plus wins.

You go plus 250, under eight and a half is plus 320.

“Where you standing on this one, do you believe Joe Brady?”

My what if for this one, we don't what ifs for everything. Losing McDermott for Joe Brady, what if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse? Interesting. Because McDermott was a legislative defensive coach, they were not good defensively. It might screw things up.

I don't know if I could be much worse. I don't know. As far as clutch situations go.

But my money's always on them to outscore the other team like I just don't like when

we do these over on. First of all, the AFCs used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to win it. And then for years, we take some of them in that game. And now we have to think about it and it sucks.

And this guy has a missed a game since 2018. He has they have six straight seasons with 11 plus wins. So why am I going to take two wins away from them? And that's all because you like pulls off like David Blaine type of magic tricks in

the red zone, like their phenomenal down low, they will always score.

So you'd have them in the 10 win club, which I talked about in part one. Yeah. Whereas it's just like McVay, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10 win club guy. So Alan, you would say, I really tried this aggregate against it last year too.

I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. If you're ever going to do it, this is the year. New coach, we have no idea if he's good.

“The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who is we talked about”

in part one. All the bears fans were ready to try any airport. Offense of line is good, although McGovern's already hurt. I don't know, they overhaul the really crappy D, but it's kind of like they painted a crappy house, a different crappy color.

And they're like, look, I painted the house. Bradley Chubbs would do some pickup. I know they got second round. He was a good last year though, Clemson kid, actually DJ Marker, so they're helping good things with that.

They'll have decent pass rush with him or so. And chub, but I don't know, they're favoring in 13 games. The paths are favoring in 10. I gave them 11 wins, they won 12 last year. I don't think one player does more work for the overunders for a team than him year after

year than Alan. And if you just put pick anyone who's a slightly above average quarterback, what's put bone next on the bills, right, like are they a six win team? So if you did wins, a ball of replacement for a football, we have it, we have it with the spreads.

He has the highest if you were a place with the backup. Yeah. I had the roster at 21 points, which puts them fringe play after a story. I only had two guys that got points on defense, so we've been though they, and one of them has been for it, who I don't even, right, if not even positive.

Big strings are Alan, James Cook, who was incredible last year, and then the offensive line. Yeah. I would say they have below average receivers, top to bottom, right, even the Patriots have better receivers than them now.

They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough. Their first five games are reprehensively hard. At Houston to start Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later, after Houston kicks the shit out of him, Chargers week three, Pat's week four, at home, and then at the Rams, Monday and football week five.

“So what is that record have to be for you coming out of that?”

At a five. Texans Lions, Chargers, Pat's Rams, three and two, and it feels like three and two and two and three and ten, it gets a little easier. But you know, it's weird with this 11 plus win teams, like, what was it two years ago? It was two or three years ago where they had a win that lasts six to make the playoffs.

Yeah. They always just seem to find the way. It's ridiculous how they do it.

And yeah, I don't know, the schedule, they almost always have the first place schedule.

It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots, extra games, even with the first place schedule. At Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle, at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh.

I'd rather have the Pat schedule. Yeah, it's one of the big things people are discredited in the Pat's with, was how we see the schedule last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either.

Right. It's like, there's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we have it sooner, but some people think it's like a top five easy schedule again. Yeah.

They have five really hard road games. They only play three games indoors, the bills. I was like when they're indoors. But that quarterbacks they go against, Drake May twice, golf, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb, and Nick's tough.

“The best thing that for the schedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second”

this year. Right. Which I'm still. How's he believe in the net rest?

You let him always enjoy it.

Yeah. No. I think it matters for sure. Yeah. I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now in net rest and regression and it's like...

All the metrics I put net rest like third or four. I know that he's supposed to be at the top, but turn over to differential. That's way more important to me, like the plus minus on that, like, I don't know. You know what I like? You know what?

My advanced stats are. Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball?

And it's really those fourth things. Really? I'm not convinced the bills move the change. Stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. Yeah.

That was harder. You're going under. I am. I'm going. I'm a slight under.

I'm 10. It's not a lock. I don't love it.

in our cook. No doubt.

And I have real questions about DJ Moore, you know, because people are DJ Moore.

It's a way. Why is it really so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore? So, two teams now that have been delighted to move off him. He doesn't stretch the field for sure and that was the problem with the bills. It didn't have like a burner, right?

To get like that. They're very low percentage.

“The only thing to worry about with the bills is we talked about these quarterbacks who just”

stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30. They got just saw in May. What if that stops? Like that?

That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Turning 30. There's some not running anymore, science.

That the counter would be he's super human and unlike Drake may or I'm terrified. He's going to get hurt. Right. Alan, you're terrified. The other guy's going to get hurt.

I'm a slight under. I don't love it. I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10th one clip. I have 11.

New England Patriots. 10 and a half is the over under division plus 135. Super fine to me that they have the same that Buffalo is just much better for a division outbeth than the paths. I don't get it.

Super ball 171 number, number one, see the eight to one.

“12 plus wins plus 220 and if you want to short them under seven half is plus 380.”

By what if talked about it on Tuesday, what if AJ Brown is a 2007 Moss like super boost for this team. We're not asking for five awesome seasons for him. Just give us one fuck you season and it seems like he wants to do it. Right.

World word. Yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to AJ Brown and what was his over under, I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12 plus, it's ridiculous odds. But their deep threat last year was booty, who I really liked and I thought he used to made a smart deal with them.

We traded him for a seventh round pick in a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Yeah. The eggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35 40 plays a game and then we didn't trust one other guy in the team.

So I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it. The ultimate regression team, they played Alcorn State 14 times last year. They're going to go 3 and 14 and I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better on paper, at least. And they were last year.

But definitely better to analyze what the record with fewer wins, like with four fewer wins. I think that's a definite possible. Well, they went 14 and three. So if they have three less wins, they're still 11 and six and hitting this over right.

A couple things just to, I don't think it mentioned enough whenever everyone talks about the schedule. They still have Drake Man or Rookie Deal, just the biggest advantage you can have in football. Right. Now, if they're not going to use the money to then give Christian Goodzawa as a top five

cornerback, you know, for some reason in lowballing him, crafts history of, I don't want to say cheapness. So I'll just say cheapness, history of cheapness, pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here.

And they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they could push,

but they never actually seem to spend it. Well, these owners are hurting. You don't understand. And some of them were spending only $140 on. Right.

Oh, my goodness.

“Like, go sell 5% of the team for $1 billion, right?”

The teams probably were 10. But so the Gonzales thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake Man or Rookie Deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach, OC and DC from last year. Right. So they actually have continuity.

My fears are because they, they, the online is going to be better. Will Campbell's healthy now. We got the kid from Utah. Right. Yeah.

They have a little depth. They brought him fired from the bears. We'll, we'll save the veteran guy in the back. He's good. So the reasons to short them, you mentioned the regression, the variable scandal.

What happened, is that going to have any sort of carryover to how he performs this season, have no idea, and then the Gonzales contract makes the nervous. But I about this. I have two words for you. Maybe you're not familiar with these.

Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? Let's cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year, doubled up. Some of them play like 30%, they doubled it up to 60% against Drake maybe. And it was effective.

It's essentially taking away, it's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under all read about cover six, because you could be a trouble, those three playoff teams did it against. They did the thing they're rushing three or four, but dropping it from back and then

the other one.

They're in their second regular season game against them.

And it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this. I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Jay and Lester's Patriots. Yeah.

Well, they're running one. I'll pick up on that. Well, you know, it's going to happen this year. AJ Brown will just run down the field and get it on the other side of the second.

It's a night and day compared to the receiver.

“They also drafted this tight end in the either second or third round, Eli Reden.”

Yeah. Who's this like just beast blocker and they have just more options than they did last year with. Like the other day. Yeah.

Big guy. I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. Um, they play the following chickiebys Rogers, cousins, Murray, Gino twice, Willis, twice. See, figure with Buffalo in the past that's four wins against a jet on softens.

It's just. That was the hard part with the bills. Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots, not a lot, though. Over to have enough pressure. Over 10.

Yeah. I'm going under 10 to half to 10. I think the bills have 11. The Patriots have 10. Okay.

And I have the past 11 and the bills have 10. I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. Did you make money from the Seahawks at least?

I did that all acknowledged. Okay.

But I mean, you, you guys, Tore, you've like, he made it in the third less time and

DAC press guys like you didn't make it to the, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I like it to go into six flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top. And then you're on the, whatever, free fall and you see the drop and you shit your pants and you come back down to the bottom. That's why you play isn't front of you.

I don't ever remember people doing this with other football team. But he got scared. He got very, very scared. That's what I'm saying. I don't think he was healthy.

I know he keeps saying that.

“I think if they lose to the chargers in round one and round one, yeah, last year.”

Oh, last post recently. They go 143, they lose to the chargers and everybody say, oh, they're young. Oh, they added, oh, look out for this team, but the further they went, it actually makes people like them as much for this year. I feel the same way about them as they'd rid the bears.

I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. I don't think the bears were a 12-win team or whatever, they ended up last year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and me and these rookie deals and, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have.

So I hope they take advantage of it. I mean, we're completely going to discount, we're going to get to the Texans later, but two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs. I'm not discounting it. I really, 95% sure he was hurt and that's where I landed.

I watched him all year and he didn't look well. He said to me, it wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw. He said in an interview. I was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me.

I was awful. It wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses. Also, our left tackle was playing a one leg. Yeah.

That's bad. New York Jets, over five and a half, division 18 to one, play off seven to one, 10 plus wins eight to eight to one, last year they're three and 14. They're six to one at the worst record this year. So they made two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010.

Yeah. Way back one with Rex. Right. I mean, two straight.

“I think there's been in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone”

back to back dating back to 96, and I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like, when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row. Right. The Chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row.

They were in the final four, and then they've not made the playoffs since. Well, they've been not even a wild charge. Surely they've come close, it's a 14 team playoffs every year in a 32 team league.

It's basically 45% chance.

Yeah. Never did it. New York small market. How are they supposed to buy what if for you? What if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season?

What if they're just competitive enough that they go seven and 10? Yeah. And now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple games, get their fans excited. And then all of a sudden, the merry-go-round stops and there's four quarterbacks available. They get none of them.

If you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine. They're okay with tanking. To me, it's like, I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him. And I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime

against tap-on when to lose. Yeah. This is a defensive specialist that they brought in, and they did not have one interception over 17 games. And it seemed like they quit as the last month of the season.

That was one of how many teams just felt like that last month, like they were just like I'm ready to go home. You can't have the defense quit on you. If you're Aaron Glenn, it's like that 92 years no one's had no intercept. He's a specialist.

And they brought him back.

There's like a new hiring, a painter, and the guy comes out the first day and paint

your dog and the hedges.

You'll hit some holes so it'll be fine. I don't understand.

“Well, apparently a 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including”

the O.C. in the DC hired Joe House's guy, Frank Rank. That's not my guy. Your guy. You said he was the best coach and conference three years ago. And never said it.

You 100% said it, and he definitely said it. We joked about it in the text writing.

He got fired in like week 11 in his first season.

Not like Frank Rank. Frank Rank. Yeah. Yeah. The goodness for the jets, they loaded up in the draft.

Three first round picks. Only team, right? And they had a 50th pick, so they had four of the top 50. The bad news is the reason they had two of those three first rounders is because they traded their two best players and defense for the first rounders, got a factor that in.

But they are going to be better, and their offensive line is going to be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line, maybe. Yeah. So I have them as a slate over. Yeah.

Did you have six wins? Yeah. Right now I have him at seven and ten, just because I trouble finding AFC wins anywhere. At 6 and 11, the schedules kind to them.

For their first eight are against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins and Raiders, so they could

be four and four at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story. What's funny? Titans is week one. And then they go packers at lines at Robert Saligan.

And if the Titans were good, yeah, you'd be like, oh, that could be owned for, and now what do you do? You fire and Glenn, do you say, fuck it. Now let's go for the number one pick. But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason, and I actually think

they'll probably beat the Titans. We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans, Jets game, I think. Well, we talked about what ourselves do that. We talked about this, tried to remember it midway through the year where, like, let's

remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened.

“That Titans Jets game is a candidate or what could be the dumbest result?”

I looked through them. But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know what would Geno, so Geno went from Seattle, good to the Raiders, just pathetic. Jets offensive lines, probably somewhere in between there.

And probably enough. Geno is, I read a atrocity last year, but they couldn't block from him and he was running for his life. So he's either washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play a Maliquelist twice, Cleveland, Camard, Cousins, Percent, Kyler, yeah.

He can win six, seven, and I said, I have them at seven and ten, I don't feel great about it. I would have the Jets over my god. I just think it's too loud. I mean, over the last year, they're three and 14.

But they traded their two best guys midway through the season. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of their craziest things ever, not having an intersection. Okay. Miami Dolphins is the last one.

They have a new coach. It's poor one out for DJ Mikey Mac. It's it. He's done spinning the desk in Miami. The clubs are quiet today.

Do you land it on his feet? Yes, he's walking it out here. Club it out in San Diego. Miami is seven and ten last year. There were hundreds, three and a half.

I double checked that. I'm like, yeah, you're right. Seven and 15 and one to make the playoffs. Worst record, they're plus two, 20. Good.

“If you want to zag and bet on them to go eight nine, it's seven plus seven hundred.”

I'm going to list their highest played, highest paid players for you this year. Have you seen this graphic? There are somewhere else. Yeah.

Two, a 55.4 million, not on the team.

Tyreek, 28.2, not on the team. Waddle, 23.2, doesn't play for them. Jaydenham Ramsey, 20.9, not on the team. Fitzpatrick, 13. Nope. Zach Sealer, a limb point four on the team.

We got one. Welcome, Bradley Chabble 11, nope. And arms that 10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying. You said Waddle to?

Waddle. Yeah. Seven to the eight are not on the team. They're paying seven of those guys not to play. Six players, 162 million dollars.

The guys are not playing. Malik will, if they're paying Malik something. I just gave you eight guys. Malik. It's, what was he 20, but they could spread it out.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Oh, man. I, so the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarter

be pretty good. They're bringing in halfway for the defense and then could there be some sort of, could they just be this funky runtime that five times a year, they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front seven and sneak to five wins. I don't think they want to.

It's problem. You know, they did the bare minimum. They extended the Von A. Chan, right? Superstar player. Right.

Who they could trade in October. And they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there.

“Malik Willis, who did he walk out on practice yesterday?”

Was that a story? Like, you know, and he takes sacks this guy. So that was going to be rough. He got so frustrated with the offense that he left. Yeah.

Bad receivers are just going to hit this go ahead. Well, the initial list of who they were at receivers were two of those guys. I don't think are the wide receivers anymore. I think it's Chris Bell. Uh, yes.

He is out. Yeah. Well, who are the receivers? Malik Washington, J.O. and Tolbert, and two to at well. I think two of those guys have been nudged out.

I don't even, I think they're not. I checked the depth. All right. Let me see. Well, regard this.

Well, Blick, Washington, Caleb Douglas, Texas, tack, okay. Yeah. Two, two, four. First Bells. Yeah.

Yeah. It's, it's garbage. It's rough. I don't know. You know, again, you don't want to give anyone two wins, but very surprised at this

team. Had more than three. Offensive line is actually weirdly competent. I wouldn't say it's great, but it's solid. Yeah.

Secondary is all time.

They traded water, basically, for that Chris Johnson on her back.

And if he's not good, I don't even know who's covering receivers for them. It's, and it's not like the past rush is going to be very good.

“I think the jet's futility, about 2,000, nine, 10, 25 years since the dolphins want to play”

off game. And on the season ticket this year, it actually says 20 across all, but it says 26. Like, don't even expect anything this year. She's. That's how it is.

How slow is Bobby slower, though? A lot of chop Robinson, then they're at the push that this is a brick out of your chop. Yeah. Bobby, so here's the other way to think about them.

And this is why I think there's a real case for the under. They play a lot of good quarterbacks. They have the Drake made Josh Alencombo four times, perdi, mehomes, burrow, golf, Caleb, love, and Herbert. Yeah.

This is with the worst secretary in the league. Oh my god. So this is going to be one of the situations where it's like, oh, my cubies playing

the dolphins this weekend, like six of the first nine against play off.

With all that said, I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying they're going to go four and 13. Now, I want to talk it out. Oh, I thought we just took the three or four. They're favored in one game against the jets.

Could they do like a funky running thing three times? Yes. And then, and it's still in under. Three and 14 is under three and a half wins.

“I think it's a battle to the grave with the car knows for that first pick.”

Thank you. Right. I think if you're going to go over with the jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the dolphins. Right.

Is it a good way to think about this? 13 draft pick sell. So maybe in a couple of years, it'll figure out. At Raiders, at Niners, home cheves, at Vikings, home Bengals, basically the Raiders is a must-win game if you're going over.

I think if they lose that game, it's a wrap. You're not getting any new over in that house. Give us your F.C. That's. So I'm in lockstep with the cousin sal.

The Buffalo Bills haven't lost, well, and I'll say it the other way around. Have won at least 11 games since 2018. So if Josh Allen's the quarterback any place, then the Buffalo Bills are going to win 11 games. I really am intrigued by this New England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11

win team, but I'm going to sit tight. I want them to start the season off one in three. They are at Seattle, their home against Pittsburgh, they're at Jacksonville, they're at Buffalo. If the Patriots come out one in three, I am the win totals that will be available at that point of the season four weeks in, market calendar right now, get in there and jump on Patriots

10 wins at that. He's still injured. You could see. He can't throw. He can't throw.

He can't. We're back. That's all I'm going to hear. That feels like two and two. Okay, I don't disagree.

I'm rooting for one in three. Great. We had the patch over, if they somehow won the Seattle game, you'd be like, "Oh, my God." That was the guaranteed loss of all of these. Your best price is going to come from them being a little bit, you know, where people

have questions.

So you have about the first one.

The Division 2. I do. Jets over. Jets over. The Jets have eight new stars on defense, the Jets went out and got makeup fits back

to the end. And they have it on Yada and all of these guys crazy. I kind of liked what they did. There's, I won't name names, but there's a couple of Jets fans in my life, not fantasy.

Like, where they optimistic about this, just the same.

“I think it's kind of hit the, you know, if we can just get Gino back to the Gino”

from two years ago, I do like the tight ends to the long. I think he's going to be good. Yeah. All right. Good.

But we'll see. All right. So NFC, I'm sorry, AFC, no locks for us in this. And you have Buffalo, New England. I have New England, Buffalo.

And if you do either of those with Jets 3 Miami 4, I mean, the higher money thing would be to do the paths, go paths, bills, Jets Miami is probably at least like 5 to 1. Yeah. That's probably 5 to 1.

We'll do this next week, but Jets third place, I think, is even odd.

Really? Yeah. And that good. That's pretty good. And just enough.

All right. That's it for the AFC's coming back with the AFC North after this. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandwell for the football season begins. Every team is undefeated. That's right.

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ccpg.org/chat Connecticut. AFC North Baltimore Ravens, they're over under as 10 and a half. Some juice on the over division plus 105 Super Bowl 111. Playoffs minus 300. Number one seed plus 410.

Well plus wins plus 125, under that an F-1's plus 200, they were 89 last year. My question for you, what if Jesse Minter is a massive upgrade over zombie John Harba? That's all right. Oh, that's a good one.

Zombie John. Zombie John. He's just like, I'm not still coaching. They're doing your own job. Yeah.

Zombie John. Zombie John gave that New York giant speech. Oh man. Play for the New York Giants. Why did they clip that out?

I don't know. They put that on their social media. It's like, really. You know, our wives have friends that they'll send the Instagram photo, they're thinking

“about posting to make sure that they're okay and then you have to get the approval.”

They should be that way for the football teams of these social clips. There should have been somebody in the Giants, like, no, we're not posting that. It looks like an idiot. He gave a pep talk to the ringer staff and like, everyone was just like looking at their phone. You would fire this whole media person.

This is the ringer. We work for the ringer. It was like a Will Ferrell speech. Very weird. I drive a Dodge Travis.

Never gave it to me. You play for the Giants. Now he's gone. I have thoughts on this, but I'll throw it to you in the Ravens. What if Jesse Minter's good?

Yeah. That would help. Right. So, and they have like a 29-year-old offensive coordinator. So it all, it all helps their Declan Doyle.

Declan Doyle. Great name. That sounds like a Showtime show. Yeah. It's like new.

New from Showtime. Declan Doyle. Did you? It's a cop in the edge. Yeah, Declan Doyle.

Get that badge. They sign tray Hendricks in. I used to say there's no Carmen in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the disabled raiders and the Ravens did that shit every year. Yeah.

This year at heart, they got tray Hendricks in, but maybe the Carmen is they lose title in the bound to free agency and now they have a center out. Yeah. That's tough. That third stringer.

Yeah.

You always talk about it.

Right. The funniest move they did was extending and I know you like this, the Zayf flowers. They gave him just a ton of money.

“And like to me, I think the litmus test is they're treating this guy like a superstar,”

but if NBC was like promoting next week's game, like Baltimore against them, you know, the chargers, it would be Herbert and if they put Zayf flowers up, would you chuckle? If you chuckle, then it's a terrible sign and giving all this money. I think it's a good chuckle point. So I don't know.

It's like in the NBA with the last guy introduced him this starting line up. Yeah.

There's a reason.

“Who's going to be the last guy for the whiz this year, House?”

Trashy. Trashy? Anthony Davis. AJ DeBance. What are you talking about?

He's going to be the last guy. Well, we're triunct. He's the most exciting player. It's the number one draft pick. That's what I would do.

That's what you guys. Lamar senses calf injury. What was it? Right. But he 25 yards per game rushing.

And that's big. This guy is all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever that's shocking when you look at the pro reference profile reference that we're watching the attempts of the yards. Right. And I hate to harp on it, but it's big.

I mean, on third and fourth, that was really a lot of times they're only outlet, like

to continue to drive. So trenches were bad, 26 in past blocking, 28 in sacks on the other side. Offensive land is the thing that probably worries me the most. Yeah. I don't think it's going to be bad.

But I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out. Maybe top three easy schedule on the league. First of all.

Or always. Yeah. First seven. It's like how are you not 61 one after these first. I talked about our last night, because for help for the FC North, at Colt Saints, at

Cowboys, Titans, at Falcons, at Browns, Bengals. Well, Cowboys isn't real, but yeah. She'd be five and two minimum. Yeah. Those are some of the worst teams in the week.

“And they were two and five to star last year, right?”

So good QBs they play, which is another thing I left to look at. This was a huge for the Pat's last year, because they played no good QBs. Burro twice, Jack, Josh Allen Lawrence Herbert.

That's it, basically seven out of the 17 games.

I'm all in on Jesse Menter. And my favorite thing to do, I talked about this in that part one is the coach that can come in and do McFrable, especially if they're following the shitty coach. McFrable, following Mayo, or Dan Quinn following, who's the crappy guy? Run, run, run, run, yeah, Riverboat, run.

And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that that's where it's six wins. We didn't really have that situation this year with the new coach, but I think the two new coach hires that were the significant ones. This is one of them, because it's like, oh, John Harbour was good.

He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable at the charges last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs anyone did. Their defense was kind of old.

They had injuries, and it just didn't seem to matter. They're fine around. And I was one over as you know, I overreacted social media videos in August and quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies. That video of him singing M&M as the whole life of him is going nuts.

I was like, I've seen enough the jury's in should he go have tried that with the giants. You have the hardball thing on one where he's doing will feral, and then you have Jesse Mentor singing for his team, and they're all fucking losing their minds, 12 and 5, I'm over. Can we over?

So is this a lock? This is a lock. Wow. Can I say this is, I'm jealous of this take now? Yeah.

If I could change it. Take it right now. I'm locked into 10. No, not after this. So you're going under?

I'm going 10. Well, it's a good year. It's 10. It's a playoff. And then 12 plus wins.

There's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 125. I mean, AFC South and NFC South are their visions. The quarterback, as I mentioned, and then I'm jealous. And honestly, if you read between the lines, you talk to like Mallorne and I've talked about it last night.

The Ravens fans was the hardball was driving under the airport status for everybody. Because like it was the case for Lamar, too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar, I think this season. Really? Like, oh, you're kind of me out.

Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost. This fucking clown Harba, not saying he said this, but I think he's going to have a little little umpto. Derek Henry. Oh, you're kind of me out.

You think I'm old. You think I can't do this again? It's just a fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team. Interesting. Jesse Minner proving that he belongs with the big boys.

We have a new coach every year that crushes it. It's a lot. I think he's the coach.

“I mean, honestly, the counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against.”

Like, what if they're running games is not existant, but Lamar getting older and choosing not to run.

Derek Henry finally, the touch is catching up with them, but other than that, you're

probably right. Week five, add Atlanta, and their shitty defense, Collins wears, I think they're going to have to hose them down. That's an NBC game. Yeah.

Oh, my god, he's a Lamar. Anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back, come on. Come on. I mean, aren't the blank of the sign this guy? Yeah.

That's the blank person. And aren't the blank.

“And the luxury box, just beat himself up.”

But when that game 52 to 10, the next week loose to the Browns and quit, because that happens over here, I'm really hard aggressive over Ravens. 7 to 12 is tough, since he buffalo jacks and build chargers. Yep. Pat, there's Texans.

So five playoff teams in a role plus, since he, since he, the sexy team, do sure in the AFC East, started to say do sure and make you hungry house. Yeah. House here, do sure. We do.

We do. The specials. Yes. What special house? Oh.

When the waiter comes over, what's the number one thing where you're like, oh, you mean, like, it's not on the menu. Yeah. What's the night special? When he's talking about steaks, fish, we've covered this territory, because it is

special. The Viochap. Oh, we have a Viochap tonight. We're going to do it with a little more solace all of a kind of oil.

Would it give you the pounded Vio million, Viochap billion is phenomenal.

That's a, that's a blind order for me. Yeah. Viochap million A is a nice restaurant. It's a great. That's awesome.

“I, I, too, I almost always tune the specials out.”

You've already decided. You're like the ravens. Well, I've already decided. Well, I've already said it in 10 and 7. I don't want to hear you.

What's your track record with specials? Like mines like 10%, so, but that's special to the restaurant. There's chefs like that. Yeah, I know. They've got to pretend.

Yeah. But you know, I'm not even, what do I care what, he, he almost definitely has different tastes than I do? Well, since he is the sexy team, do you sure? Yep.

There are over is up to 10 and a half inexplicably. There were six and 11 last year, minus 190 for the playoffs, plus 165 for the division. 21 for the Super Bowl. You can super short them and go under 7.5 for them at plus 420, which, which guy and ringer wise guys is going to do that?

What? It's just a bingo wish. Yeah. We already covered this. The heart, all of a sudden.

Sure. Yeah, I can't remember. Yeah. No one came on it. Really?

420s. That's under set 7 and 10. So that's a five week burrow injury. There you could do that. I can do that.

My wedded for you never mentioned in all of the, we love the bangles, regression, schedule,

so much easier, joe burrow.

“What if the bangles can't block for joe burrow again?”

Because I don't think they're going to be able to. They didn't do it. First of all, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse in their offensive line, which could never protect joe burrow, and they decided to put all their assets into defense. All the picks.

But with part of the logic being, if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for joe. He wouldn't have to be on the field. It's like, right. Does that make it easier for joe? He's still running for his life when you run place for him.

How is that easier? I would rather got an offensive line. It's bad, but they did score 37 back to back games and lost balls. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right.

Yeah, he's played six years. He's made it to the finish line three of those six, or whatever. And I think it wasn't playing that well last year before he went down. Yeah. He gave us 492 points last year.

Super Bowl year. He wasn't that wasn't his best year. Right. I want to talk about Zack Taylor, because this is the hottest of hot seeds. Like, he's number one hot seed, right?

If this is hot ones, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon? Yeah, whatever. The atomic one of the last two or three. Yeah, totally.

The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap. They would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches. Yeah. How much is the extra is this going to cost? Well, what happens?

$75,000 in the middle of the night? The intermismismismismism. Yeah. And they just promote the assistant. Now he had excuses.

I don't think he has them this year. Farrow makes it or not. I think this is it. I wrote. Funny you said, hot seed.

I wrote Maker Break Coaches here, just like. This is it. There's no way he comes back up. They don't make it. Also, Burrow has not made the playoffs since 2022.

And I do wonder if there's a world where my homes doesn't get concoced in that playoff game, which he clearly got concoced and then they left him in to cost the three of us a lot of money. And also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.

And Joe Burrow has never been in a Super Bowl, mom just makes it again, like do we talk

about him all differently? Right. He just become Dak Prescott at that point. Maybe. Way better pass rush.

Easy schedule. That's about it, extra games at Miami, at Washington home for KC, no short week games. Right. They finally took a center in the fourth round, but otherwise it was all defense. They signed Dexter Lawrence, they get him from the Giants.

They're seconds. I'm traded. Yeah. Give up the tenth pick in the draft form. Right.

That was it. So the first pick was the second round pick. This guy has historically short arms, they say.

this guy. I have their roster at 17 points. Burrow is eight of those points. He has an eight. Josh Alms and nine Burrows and eight.

Chase was a five.

“Highest receiver points you can get in my system five.”

Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys. At the offensive line as a minus one, you could talk me in a minus two for them. Lawrence says three points and no other guy's got points.

And this is like, I take the player rank and think, Sir, I don't know if it always works,

but I read out the list, like ESPN is the greatest PFF. They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins. I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them in the last year.

I don't really get the case. I don't normally buy nonsense and add it. I'm always like, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over. I probably wish I could reverse what I did with, you know, you did with the Ravens

and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10 and a half with +105. What is that, sir? Number? Yeah, 10 and a half. Yeah.

They play the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, Mohames, Lawrence, and Danus. Mm. And that's a thing.

They move into the Strad Rogers two times Baker, Chuck, Bryce, and Danial Jones, and his

one leg. And then they play Watson twice, Willis, Camward, and to a slash, Panics.

“I think what I'm looking at, giving them more and more.”

I went 10 wins, even though I don't even like the team. I just feel like they're going to score 30 points 10 times against the shitty team, right? Yeah. And you know, take it for what it's worth, favoring in 15 games. Yeah, 15.

I think that matters. Yeah. I just 11 wins seems rich for me considering, but A, they can't block, B, Burro, injury, potential. C, how many times, how many games did Chase and Higgins play together?

Right. Right. I was feeling like one of them has banged up, or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. I don't know. 10 wins seems, the under seem safe because if there's an injury to chase or an injury to

Burro, or an injury to Lawrence, like any of those three guys, you can say this about a lot of things, but especially this team, like they have no room for error with their star players. So under for me. You don't like flack, oh, come in and really?

No. Pittsburgh Steelers, there are runners eight and a half, five to one for the division. Couple ringer wise guys, kick the tires on that one a little bit, playoffs plus one, 60. 10 plus wins is plus 180.

“I would do that over playoffs because I think things can be 10 in the F, C, under five”

and a half wins is plus three, 80. Couple what ifs here? What if Rogers cannot make it through the season of age 42? Whoa, whoa, bombshell, whoa, what if is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over?

The preseason was pretty impressive for our guy, Drew, and I don't, yeah, I don't feel, I feel like they could go 9 and 8 even if Rogers does it finish the season. What are your thoughts on that? That's interesting. I do have been playing over three and a half games at the line I made up in my head.

I don't know that this recarnation of, you know, Mike McCarthy, and I don't know if this isn't the offense he signed up for, this guy throws 30% of his passes beyond behind or at the line of scrimmage. I mean, they're trying to stretch it out. Yeah, we could cry.

I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right? Like they would 10 and 7 to say they're going to regress two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomman when they officially go 8 9 because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's, uh, it's all Rogers, thanks for coming back, but I will not take the fifth

as I review his putrid putrid stats here, 30 second in success rate, 33rd in air yards, 28th,

33nd out, dead last completion on their pressure. There you go. I said it. I think I hated it. We did for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had

the good game against all the times that happened. Yeah. I felt like I was over six years. Well, how lucky could they get? Barrel was out.

Right. And I started one and five, two and five, the Browns were the Browns. There's some injuries. Not going to happen. No.

There's a week 13 game, they go Broncos, Black Friday at home. And then the next week's Sunday night football against the Texans, Tomman's going to be there. Or it's a Tomman game. And that is the worst possible defense for a 42-year-old.

Yeah. Aaron Rodgers. I just felt they'll be cutting the Tomman kind of be like, all right. So I mentioned, I mentioned the coaches thing when we were talking about a mentor, about how this year, it's weird with the coaching changes because the ones that I think are going

Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh. I think my other would if would be what if Tomman was kind of watched the last couple years. Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense.

Like I had in my player rankings, five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven, right? Especially if they can revive TJ, what? Like, especially teams pretty good. Demelting.

They're front seven. It's going to be weird. Yeah. Yeah. And they got it.

“Pitman, which I think was important, they got doubtal who I've always liked.”

I feel like they've set Rogers up better than they did last year. Yeah. This team's good. I actually think they're pretty talented and you're going to go nine ten wins. What are you doing?

Well, here's the thing with the McCarthy.

He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harba on Peyton, they'll want to Super Bowl. They've all around the same with the wins. Like, if you if you hid the names, it just looked at the thing you would know who is who.

Right. I just feel like this is ten and seven. Maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is going to be way better. He's good at offense.

You had him in Dallas. I know. They're offense. They're offense. Did shit.

Our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage though. True. So I have to take you through those numbers again. I get it. And I know they get a wide receiver all of them.

They're excited about and all that, but I just, I don't like the schedule at all. I feel like they have to go six and three before that mid stretch of Cincinnati, Philly, Denver on Black Friday at Jacksonville in Baltimore. That is crushing in that. We've won the 15th.

10 to 15. That's it.

Cleveland twice at Lina Jones, Chuck, Bryson Ward, so they have seven bad cubic games, basically

which is OK. I think their claps prove though pretty much because they knuckleball their way to wins. They win these clownish games. So that's why I have them at 8.9. But zero indoor games for the steers outdoors for four plus months.

Yeah. I think that's fine. I think that's good for them though. Yeah. They beat the Falcons week one.

Patrets at Patriots, Bengals at Browns, Home Colts. I genuinely think that's four and one. They're going to have that.

“That's what they're going to have to be with those other games we mentioned.”

The problem for them is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have Week 8 November first, Browns Thursday night football. Oh, I'm already predicting that's one of the five weird games of the year. Yeah.

That would be decided by something bizarre. I like this team though. I think this is the 10 win team, not the Bengals. Wow. You think the outdoor games.

Hello. I had the Bengals 10 wins too. I think I'll come down to the matchups. I think they're going to get the playoff spot, not the Bengals. No kid.

I'm the Bengals that either nine or 10, but I think that's still is get the 10. I mean, it faced the number three past defense right now this year in their schedules. I don't know. I don't know how he does it. I like the vibes.

I like everything I'm seeing from the training camp, but I think Tom and I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach of the team and everybody kind of knows it's ending and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just, you say all that, but remember, go back and look.

Over year, over year, they're record in one score games, they're record of the Steelers as underdogs. Again, buddy matches Tom and for that.

“And they ran that playbook to a T last year.”

Seven and three last year, one score plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I just can't tell that DNA from that with also having a better offense. Yeah. They could get, the funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did that's absolutely the furthest.

Well, who they play Houston the first round?

You play the outdoor game and now you've got a 40-something year old quarterback. Yeah. Who has to get ball through the ball? Yeah. I don't think I'm winning a playoff round.

I just think there's a path for them, and most of it has to do with Cincinnati, who I kind of wish I'd pick for nine and eight. But I just, I couldn't, I really had trouble finding AFC wins. It was really low on everybody. Like I added it up and I was like, ah fuck, like I'm seven wins.

No, we need to be. Don't tip your hand there. You had it seven wins. You gave five of the first. We've done two divisions in the AFC and you have five of those teams at at least 10 wins.

Yeah. He found the place. Yeah. This bird ball is more sincey. Yeah.

I'm going to blow. I'm going to blow. I'm going to blow. That's a 50 wins. And I know he has Houston at 15 wins.

I don't think. Maybe I need to move Cincinnati at a nine and eight. Move them to the NFC. All right. Last one is Cleveland.

The first one was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking to yourself and the teams. Yeah. There are around five and a half playoffs plus six, 40 worse record six to one last year.

There are five and 12.

They're in now. They also had Miles Garrett and they had Jim Schwartz and Stephansky. That if the Browns brackets they get like a C minus from the QB position, what if Watson has a little bit of a turn round or Sanders comes in like just a C minus, not even a C plus.

Mm-hmm. Could this team win like eight games? No, C minus still got some of the seven games. Okay. I think.

I mean, this is a laughable situation and a mutual friend of ours. Yeah. Who hates the Browns? Yeah. As this to Sean Watson signing handcuffed them more than any other player and any franchise

ever.

For as long as it has, now the counter to that is they always make mistakes anyway.

The Browns ownership, they weren't going to win anyway. They were just going to fucking get somebody else. Yeah. But in terms of like morally corrupt going in and then signing them in and giving them the big money.

“And then for him to go out there and say, why am I getting booed out there?”

They was like, who's going to get booed if you don't get booed? You played 19 games in three years. You've been horrific and they can't move on because of you. And now you're the start. It's pretty rare.

Like, you see teams or players like they bum out their fan base, suck the life out of them. You rarely see the fan base in rage. Yeah. It's a hardest thing to do.

Like when they read sex trade and monkey bets, like we were in rage, we really made us mad. This is like a whole other level. I don't even know. There's no one, right?

There's like somebody walking in on their way for husband just having sex with the

door man, you know, and not even normal sex, like a crazy position house. Right. Right. Yeah. I don't know how to walk.

Sorry, yes. No, but just like you walk in on something pretty crazy. Right. It was the movie, the hangover when the people are showing up for the, for the, for the orgy.

He's that thing over at school. Luke Wilson comes home. The people are coming for the orgy. It's like that. The brown friends are like that level.

Like not only is their life for five years, it's been five year orgy for four years. Well, some stuff in their favor. Mouse Garrett turns out he is eligible for the oink theory. They want jack shit with them.

Great. Great. Poor. They had another monster. They had two awesome drafts in a row.

This one was like, they got a new left tackle, conception on embossed and everybody loves these guys at receiver. They got McNeil Warren at safety. All of those guys were top 60 picks. The last draft was Fanon.

Juggins and a swish wasn't sure the defense of rookie of the year. There was one more and Juggins. They said Juggins. Yeah. They're running back.

Yeah. They have young town anywhere. And I, again, I thought that fanski was terrible. Esther. Like to the point I had seemed like he was throwing games, but he might have just

been bad. There are offensive lines if you're, and no gym shorts who sadly they couldn't keep it. Yeah.

“Here's why I think you're C minus quarterback thing won't hold up.”

I don't think the defense will be narrow is good. They both have 45 straight games without allowing a 300 yard passer. Guess why? Because Miles Garrett is getting double teamed. Jared versus a nice player, but it's not going to be the same thing.

So, so you're not by the end of the year. They're going to have to score 27 and win a lot of games, I think. One case for them is how awful their schedule is. I mean, how awfully good it is for them. Andrews twice, Bryce, Gino, Camward, Cousins, Straub, Chuck, to a dart, Jones, or all quarterbacks,

they play. So if their defense is good, they really, there is a path for them to get to 7 and 10. Even if they're just hanging the ball off, I feel free for 4/4. I have them as a slide under at 5 and 12 and you could even talk me in a 4 and 13. And the reason is, now, if you're the most brown thing ever for them to fuck up their

chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick, but I just, how are the incentives

aligned to do this? Like, we just saw Hazelman's the bucks. He could have traded Janis for Jalen and picks, right, and tried to be good and instead they tanked and they're going to rebuild and, I don't understand that. He's used to being wrong, but they did ask Hazelman, where he offered it, I think they asked

him. They told him it was 5 and a half. This is over on there. I'm serious. And he said he would go over.

Because that's just something else he's going to be wrong about.

“It's probably what the only thing we've needed to discuss in terms of picking this.”

So they have Watson for two games at Jack's Apox, Jason Lloyd who does a good job with athletic rotor piece about they're telling you all what they think of Shader Sanders by how they handle this. Like, they obviously just don't pick he's good, and there's no other unless they trade for, I don't know, Stetson Bennett or Tyson Beijing.

Jimmy Jeeza, free agent. If you're Jimmy Jeeza, do you want to go play for the Browns and get the shit in that of you?

I'm 5 and 12 is where I have it to.

Can't I go over on this? Yep. How's your thoughts on this division? Yeah. So I am drinking Cincinnati cool laid.

I think you would.

“You have to believe that the offensive line, that the idea of continuity, even though they”

were substandard in execution, that the guys returning, that there's an upside to it, that's the only way this makes any sense. As you have appropriately criticized that offensive line, and it has been the thing that helped them back, because they can't keep Joe Burrow upright. But when he's upright with all those weapons, I have a view.

You and I talked about this before, taping today. I think that defense is potentially sneaky good. It took them a while to get used to algal, and who came over from Notre Dame, I'm in this too. Half of the season.

We talked about this, and the splits for them, the latter half of the season, he did some things that that uncomplicated assignment, he altered the scheme, and they all gone on the same page. Now, you pointed out, look at who they play. I was in on this story until I looked who they played, but he won me over for 10 seconds

with this story. Yeah. Then we went and actually looked who they played. What about you can only play who was on your schedule? No.

No. I think there were reasons to defend that. And it was a very good defense against those shit teams in those shit quarterbacks, and

“this schedule that the Bengals have in front of them, that's what really bolsters the”

case. What you're doing with Baltimore, and I don't really disagree. I just, to me as a brand new coach, I have Jesse Mentor in this Baltimore team in the exact same place as Seattle with Mike McDonald.

They won 10 games, as soon as Mike McDonald arrived, and then Super Bowl the second year,

I think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs. That defense was so bad last year. That Baltimore defense. That's what let them down more than any other thing. And the hardball coach and the defense, so 10 wins for Baltimore is good.

It's crazy to me that they arrived at 11 and a half. They were the top win total in the AFC for most of the summer. It just dropped down as we're, everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half. So I have Cincinnati at like 11 wins Baltimore at 10, and then I think Pittsburgh's taking a big step back.

It's going to have to like really give credence to what Tomlin did in one score games. It's not just last year when 70% of their wins were one score games. It's time of year after year after year. I'm not in it. I get it.

And then Brown's in last. I get it. I wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city, and just we're shit happening after year with them. We're going to find it for that, but we're going to find out now that he's not there

if it was Tomlin or if it was something deeper. Trey Andrickson, I don't know we touched on it, but it's a key piece to this division. Whether or not it makes it way better. There's this, you know, there's the belief that he's 31 years old. He missed what nine or 10 games last year, like you're not getting the best version of

Trey Andrickson.

“And if that's the case, who does to, would you say is pretty good when you go?”

Yeah. Well, I didn't mention quickly.

Fandows NFL futures reward stack, where it's basically it's a five pack house, unrestricted,

two unrestricted, the maker misplayoffs, regular season wins, player milestones. You can do any of those and you get the 50% profit, boost, token, aka the PPT, PPT, PPT, PPT, PPT. I was a profit, PPT, PPT. I was a profit, PPT.

PPT. PPT. I was a profit, PPT. PPT. No.

Fandows is covered. You haven't told Monday August 31st, the last day of August, doesn't turns out to hop in on this. What's your favorite? Do we have a player one for the AFC, or will we not gotten to yet? Are you, like, if you had to do, yours is AJ Brown, right?

Yeah, we do any AJ Brown touchdowns. I'd probably do the touchdowns for AJ Brown, because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there. Mm-hmm. Be my guess.

This is Fandle list, fuck you touchdowns. And look, I searched for fuck you, and I'm six and a half, or something for Henry. All right. The most boring part of the podcast, and every ringer of podcast, is the AFC South and the Houston Texans.

It's where we're all aligned on team. I had to make some moves to be able to get these Houston bets in a month ago that I don't want to talk about. I love this. Please talk about it.

He made some moves. I'm going to talk about it. My daughter's boy friend Hank, who's a great kid, but turned 21 this summer as did my daughter, and Fandle is in Massachusetts, obviously, and there was a couple of bets I really wanted to get in.

I wanted there was UCLA over, but Houston, the market had not shifted furpily yet. I can't have my daughter do it. My dad would have no idea how to do it, but Hank, I really trust Hank.

I get the code to make sure it's me to my phone.

I give him the code. He logs in, and I have all this money that I had from last year, because I actually hit a bunch of features last year, and he's putting in bets for me. And I don't think it was the closest I've ever felt, Hank, it's a real bonding moment for us.

If we could call them up, it's ready to back, we did some more. No, it's great about this for Hank, the groom is traditionally supposed to ask the father of the bride, if you could have her hand. Do I have your blessing, and he's like, "I don't know, I have this Fandle password." I definitely have his blessing to think it's going to cause him sick of that, and I broke

up with Hank, I'm like, "Hold on, change my password." That's the greatest. Okay, Hank. Have you told her she needs to give you a heads up if they're going to break up so you can change the password.

Oh, like inside information. She needs, yeah. You need that.

“She's going to give to Adam Shepther, Adam Shepther, what did you say?”

What did you say? What did you say? That fish. You dead fished house.

He met housemen Adam Shepther a couple of years ago, like a pretty, not that big country

club. Oh, that was a very nice charity event. Very nice. Yeah. And knowing that he'd been an Adam Shepther, Ben, on my podcast, I'd say houses and introduce

himself, and I'm at the ringer. I just want to express my admiration. I wasn't like I'm that here to talk for 10 minutes. Yeah. It wasn't an earbender.

I didn't show up with intentions, and I made it clear that I would move right on. I was near the bar and he just dead fished house. Was he on two phones at the time? Has that been tested for two years? Yeah.

What the hell? That's why you hold on this end. I've been saving it.

“It really was, he did need to be so mean to Jed York.”

So I have to share the story now. Okay. It was really upset about Jed York. I've been in house since 1988. This is less than three stories of people who have dead fished house.

Yeah. Everybody loves house. Don't dead fish house. I couldn't believe it. How dare anyone's mean to house?

Houston Texans. Over nine and a half. Yeah. Yes. Yeah.

Divisions plus 120. I'd be up for that, playoffs minus 176, throw that at any parlay. Number one seed plus nine, 50, 12 plus wins, plus 220. You love this, best record 12 to one. Long story case, I'm why I love this.

But I'll give you the wood if they can send my salvage strad this year. See plus strap. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I won't notice that.

And he was fine except for those playoff. Playoff games is what cost them an extension, right? Like he really should have been reset anybody else would have. But then what did he do? Five interceptions, six acts, no touchdowns.

Maybe showing up to training camp with the awkward backpack and like he's about to present to social studies project, I meant that might have heard too. But other than that, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. Like they get so much pressure from Denau Hunter and Will Anderson who they extended.

And that's all they kind of need defensively, they're the scariest team in the league.

“And that's why as long as they're healthy, they're bulletproofed the rest of the way.”

I felt like I was taking crazy pills, the entire option, the best defense in the league. Yeah. It's the best. Nobody would argue it. They didn't lose anybody from the defense and added blank and ship, right?

So everybody's back. I thought they were probably the best team last year and strad just fucked him in that game. Why did he fuck him? Bad offensive line. They had the worst running backs in the league and they had wide receiver injuries.

And I just think he lost his confidence as you were when along. Montgomery, not getting told my grandkids that I saw a David Montgomery run the ball in the NFL. Your grandkids are going to have your password to get my grandkids bigger than your grandkids. Grandpa.

On your fiddle. Oh. But Montgomery's really solid. They had Nick Chubblaster who just retired. Yeah.

When they had Woody Marx and it was just a rotating, you know, and now they're competent there. They have one super steeper. They have, they have red zone woes. Definitely.

And Montgomery should solve a few of those. Really frustrating. If you bet on them last year, I had him to tease to watch them. Collins, the two rookies from last year, they're back or he gets a third, but no else back.

And then Tankdale is in the Hagen spot. They showed you for booty, who I really liked. And then the offensive line is the question. Yes. It's not great.

And it's the one red flag. To me, the offensive line I'm much more worried about than strad.

The problem is, I mean, the problem for the rest of the conference in the league, their

defense is so fucking good. I'm not really sure it's going to matter that much. They're going to have leads. They're going to just absolutely smoke teams in my rankings at them at 27 points.

Lassar, Bullock, and Petra, and that championship didn't even get it. Fairbaren is one of the best kickers in the league.

“Ryan's, I think, is like one of the seven best coaches.”

And I think their defense and the coaching and the special teams can care this.

Seventy is trying to schedule first three out of four home.

That's all looking good. I would play the game. Where are you that all of us are all in on this? Yeah. And I only think that, I felt like, as everybody was getting behind them, Higgins

Blue at his ACL, like the next day almost, that wasn't great. But I also feel, there's a lot of strad talk. I think there could be 10 wins plus with Davis Mills, then he shows he could win games. Only because you only have to score like 17 points to win some of these games. It's a good point.

I like Davis Mills. If I was Cleveland, I would trade my third run pick for him. And yet they had four hundred and four points last year, which was the second most franchise history. He was the thing with strad.

At least strad has done it. Yeah. At least we know he was good at one point, which was only two three years ago.

And at least we know there were real reasons he wasn't good last year.

They couldn't block. They couldn't run the ball. Yep. He had nobody to throw the ball to. Lost his confidence.

That's fine. Bill's bangles to start the season both at home. We're no lot more after week two by owned bills.

“I think this defense, I think they thought they were the best team last year.”

They're going to this year. They're like, we're the best team. They have say we're going to go show it. I have them. It's an over.

It's a lock for me. 12 and 5. Well, I'm in five to say. I have them. They have this Georgia Tech guard who I think allowed two sacks in 43 games.

They're sure enough that offensive line as much as they can got a Michigan tie-dend. So I don't know. And that's schedule. What did we say? Four prime time.

They play the Jags in line. Four night road games. Yes. Jags in London. So that's not awesome.

No teams coming off the buy. They face no teams coming off the buys. AFC South goes AFC North and NFC East. So, not awesome. They play Allen Burrow, DAC, Herbert, Lamar, Love, Daniels, and Hertz.

And I'm not sure that's going to matter. They end the season with the Titans, which could be dangerous for the 12 plus wins. But if they have whatever close, and they're right ahead, if you got that far. All in. I really like the coach too.

I think he's good.

“I think they probably should have beaten the Pat's last year.”

The Strav just singlehandedly screwed the game up, but they we can do anything. It's a defense. Yeah. And that eventually the defense realized, I got where we're just screwed. Backs of 8.5, plus 2.10 for the division, 27.1 for Super Bowl, minus 106 for the playoffs.

Really the most dead, even above the playoffs, 12 plus wins, plus 360, under seven half wins, plus 190. This is yet another turnover aggression team. Everybody's been progressing. We need a word for this.

It's a regression orgy, just these regression teams, but what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them? And then you pick apart the streak at the end, the eight games, they're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and look at some of those games. The only really super impressive one was Denver, right?

And there's some other ones. They played the indie twice during that stretch after Jones had already gotten hurt. And yeah, I can't get there with this team. I don't know. This is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all.

And I have them at 10 wins. And last year we sat here, and I picked them the win the division, and because Travis Hunter's a great, and Brian Thomas, Jr., is going to have a great, what a sophomore year. Neither one didn't play.

And one barely played, and it was terrible, and it was all Jacoby Myers coming in, and Lawrence, like stepping up like we, no one's business. At the end's gone, again, I don't know why I'm ignoring the regression here. They had what, six one score games and top three and takeaways, but I do think this is just one of my gut feelings going under because I think in the inapolis takes a tumble, I think

Lawrence has the confidence to get them to double digit wins at this point. So you're under on the jackpot? No, well, is it 10 to half? I'm going 10 and a half. Yeah.

I'm going 10 wins. Yeah, over, over, over. Yeah. I'm under. I'm on juice to the over.

I have them in 89, you could talk in a 98, you could not talk me in the 10. My biggest thing with them, you know, this Hunter trade they did, which cost them a lot of draft capital, like their draft sucked. I think they had the worst draft in the league. And all the people I know who liked the draft, also thought it was the worst draft

that anyone had.

The title, no first round.

19 catches. Yeah, it was just weird. It was not good. They lost ETN, they lost Lloyd, they were play, I guess, Tutan, hopefully keep your fingers crossed.

We talked about them on Tuesdays, but below average offence of line, it's another thing

So I had him last year, I've never taken that guy again, I had a red flags, from a roster

“standpoint, I had them at 15, and that's what's giving Parker Washington to two.”

I only had three guys on defense that I thought were impactful. And I don't like the schedule at all, they've nine road games, plus two in London. So they have six home games in Jacksonville. And then 11 games at all other locations. And defenses, they go against this year, Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philly, Houston,

twice, Baltimore, giants, if they're good, and a shootout with the bears, but I couldn't get there. Yeah, again, I don't have a lot to, they have to get to the December, like that's what they have kind of easier to end with Dallas, Washington, and Indianapolis. I think they have 35 days between home games, because they're doing renovations on their

stadium, but I have them winning both London games, so that's what I'm meant to. So that includes beating the Texans. Yeah. So I had them getting swept by the Texans, which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else.

And I think there are 500 team. I don't feel great about it, I certainly would have make it a lock or anything. I understand letting a TN go. And then you get to and Chris Rodriguez has his guy. Did you watch him last year?

I think he's a third string run in the middle of the third string.

He's a problem for this team.

“Their run game was so important for them.”

They have a doofus GM, which is Gladstone. We can call him up by name. He's a goofball. He's on the wrong side. Like all of the draft analysts, he's picking guys, you know, 30 spots.

Earlier than where consensus has guys, and he's done it for two years, he grossly overpaid for Travis Hunter. He's the single biggest impediment to this team's advancement because column is good. He's a good head coach. Did he dead fish you?

Is that why you're upset? I don't know. He dead fish you guys. Wow. Has to say, hey, you know, I do.

And he's like, he needs to answer. They need an applescoats over eight and a half tail of two seasons last year. Yeah. Number one seed 25 to one can rule that out. Under six and a half wins plus two 10 division plus three 40.

What if Daniel Jones, who blew his Achilles out halfway through last season, is not 100% this season? No doubt. How can you pick this team for any for a winning record if it's Daniel Jones, not 100%.

Yeah, I don't see the case. This is my lock on their 6 to 11. Sorry, Tony tokens, Tony and all the token family everybody. Yeah. I'm going under here.

I think you're right.

“I think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year, which means use his legs to extend”

plays. And I don't think it's happening. And Pierce just came off the PUP as far as that part made me nervous too. Big contract for Pierce hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was and now it doesn't seem like he's 100% I don't know why I'm doing this.

They lost Pitman. I'm digging them for what Jacksonville did too. They had turnovers in 15 games. They forced turnovers. Yeah.

So I don't think that's happening again. I think this is a 6 and 11 team. Ravens week one at chiefs week two, Texans week three. Yeah. That's 0 and 3.

With Daniel Jones on one leg basically.

I think you can keep going. I think you can keep going. It's crazy, I really was thinking about a lot. Should we lock this down together? The other part of it is Luana Rumos, the second version of his defense.

I like it less and less. The Bendo break. Yeah. The Bendo break. The bigger breaks.

Yeah. I mean, eight, nine and eight. I'm not going to look. Top three tacklers gone, Franklin Cross Pratt. I might lock it.

I'm going to keep thinking about it. Their first data, I do not enjoy. Good offensive line though. I'm not going to lock it. Like Tyler Warren, Taylor was great last year.

They get a full sauce gardener season. We'll see if Ward can avoid the concussions. All right, titans over five and a half. Under four and a half is plus 220. Where's records?

Plus 750. I'm not going to get any of the other ones. They did bring in big shot Bob Salah. Right. Dayball.

What if came more? It doesn't have it. Why don't we just doesn't have it? It's. It's not good.

The advanced stats against him were horrific questions. But they also had the worst coach probably in this decade. He's got to show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds. But then heaves it across the field.

It's a little bit of like a hell Mary and didn't like twice. And everyone's like, oh, maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything. It's way under.

Really like a businessmenly bet. No, you can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake May's rookie year. Like if you watch Drake May that year like man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the year. He was running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback.

And Ward, I want him to be good. Yeah. We do a good quarterback. So I just don't know if he's good. The pressure on us to to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to a first place.

I did put them at eight wins. I do think Juan del Robinson's going to help and carnailtate.

“I think that'll be as good a wide range win this year.”

Yeah, this this year. 20, 20, six, eight. Nine. Yeah. It's okay.

Let's roll. Do you hear this? How's he needs help? What? You've Tennessee at eight and nine?

Yeah. Gus Bradley defensive coordinator. You've got salad. That's incredible. That's fine.

It's going to be good. Well, they were at six and a half nearly all summer in terms of the win total. And then here we are, and it's down to five and a half. Lock the sharps. But juice to the over.

Franklin Myers, that Denver player is really good. They locked him in.

I think defense will be better over almost 300 billion dollars on fridge and time.

So it's six wins is minus one thirty five. It's cause this saying he see there's a possibility for two more. And the schedule is including that week a teen game that you talked about. Right. They drafted Tate and they signed one Dell Robinson.

So he's got two weapons. That's the Jets and Giants two out of the first three weeks. That's going to tell the story of the season. That salad and Dave won't that'll be fun for sure. I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and Schreger likes him.

Even if Schreger won't come on my podcast anymore. What? Nine more. That's what? Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. Still friends with them, friendly, friendly, but just won't come on. Me? Meena's on ASPN.

She comes on. Shreaks. Turned out multiple. Really? Why a lot of golf?

No kidding. Don't make excuses. Find out. You play golf here here. I know.

I had for their roster. I had offense of line two. Yeah. Simmons three points. Stonehouse one.

That was over the all the guys that got points of this defense. Even Franklin Myers. Yeah. Like I wouldn't have put points for it. Here's the thing though.

Big shot Bob Salah. Mission. Friend of Schreger. Hmm. He was terrible on the jets.

“Remember like we called the make-it Salah.”

We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was. They didn't have a lot of help.

Their defense was was always pretty good with him.

Right. You know. And then Dave All was a maniac in the giant side line. So I don't know. I can't.

Well, we're forced to take a fourth place team. And I won't put one in the playoffs like this. But they can go a win and a half over there. Expectation right else. Why not?

Yeah. That's all. They basically have to beat the jets week one in the Salah revenge game. Cause after that, if I'm looking for wins at giants, maybe at colds, home browns. One of the jacks games.

Home commanders. At Raiders. Yeah. Now you're in that sixish. I have to win 80% of those.

Yeah. I'm going five and 12 under. I'm feeling great about it. Has the FC South talk to us? Yeah.

I mean, we're so bullish on Houston. And we all bet them. I'm all the way up at like, you know, 12 wins. The all win total for Houston.

The most important thing for them to me is giving that.

They're offensive coordinator. The opportunity to run stroud out of under center. And that's going to translate into a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff. Like we didn't see their offense because they thought Joe Nixon was going to play running back for them until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B.

So this is the version of the offense. And I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well.

“So that's why that's part of the case for being bullish on on Houston.”

The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins. And the market said congratulations. We think you're at eight and a half win tea. 13 last year.

And now here's what we have just about this with the Patriots. You didn't like that this respect. I know. I have no counter. And yet I think it's the right number.

And it's the right number because of that this GM stinks. They're not replenishing. They're not replenishing. They're not replenishing. That's fine.

The Patriots actually got better. Okay. The Jaguar's got worse by any way you want to look at it. They have worse players than they did last year. It's just a fact.

I'm mystified by the cults. I think Stykin is incredible. And what he showed us over the first seven games last year. It was like what a revelation that nobody had the cult coming out and leading the league and efficiency

But I cannot. I will not and cannot. And under any circumstances. It was a guy coming off and Achilles this in this short period of a time. Right.

And think that that. Oh, that's a group. They're quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson. That's as bad as it gets.

Bridges have moved down the third by the way on a death chart.

Brother Leonard. So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans and the cults. Yeah. It over on the Texans.

“I think this is a one one horse division.”

Right. His house was worried. I was taking too many ten plus. Ten plus one. Kind of run.

You're going to have a couple here. You worked it out. But those should be a couple more. There's a way this division might actually be in the running against NFC South for at least when it was wins.

I would favor them. It's a big good fandle thing. He's six. I gave you AFC South. One and a half wins more than the NFC South.

Who do you take? Well, I have seven and ten's all over. So I have to take. I may have 28 for NFC three and a half. What would be the number of three and a half?

36 for. Yeah.

That's probably the number.

Yeah. You can do this. It's available on field. Yeah. You can take the visions.

And there are odds available right now. Division match up. But not spreads. Not spreads. That's right.

But you can get an implied probability out of it. I love it. I had Hank too. I had Hank too. I'd Hank too.

One of scandal. The Browns plus 200 gets that later. You get it to head. Yeah. The Browns plus 200.

Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. That's a good one. I think they probably push.

Yeah. All right. And hey, hey, hey. If this is our last one. If he was.

Hank is leadaway and cuffs. Thanks. Thanks for the rest. Five. AFC AFC West.

Denver Broncos. Over nine and a half. They went 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year. Division two to one.

Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus one's plus 250.

“What if this was actually the best AFC team last year?”

Yeah. You have two teams that are probably spent the whole off season going. We should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one may be Buffalo. I don't know.

Buffalo Fire. Their coach immediately. But I definitely they used in in Denver. We're both like how the fact that we not make the Super Bowl. I still don't know what happened to Botanix.

Was it the last play of the game? Do we in the locker room? Did we even say anything? Really was nuts. So what are your thoughts this year?

Denver was very kind to us last year. There were features was one of the big hits last year. But it was a down year for the division in terms of, you know, a home's out there. They had two score at one score wins against the Chiefs.

I'm trying to just underestimate it. Yeah. Chargers decimated the Raiders with the Raiders. This team. I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good.

I kind of like in them to the bears. So I know you love. But it's the same sort of one score lock. You know, turn over lock 11 and two and one score games. One and six and twenty twenty four.

They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15. Now, I don't want to kill Bonyx for being a club. Having that clutch gene because that's all that means. He trailed and they brought him back.

We watched that giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five game decrease. I mean, I wouldn't sign up. But they're first six.

Laughably difficult. Casey, Jacksonville, Rams, 49ers, Chargers. See, Hawks. I won't say which is home, which is a way. I think that's three and three at best.

But they're playing the chief son of Monday night in KC. Yeah.

When first of all, his mom's is like, no, I'm feeling good.

That gets his first game. It's be weird to motion there. I don't know. If I'm playing at Kansas City, that's the game I want to play. Week one.

Really. I want to come right at them before the homes is settled. And he's back to himself. And I don't even know who their receivers are. Yeah.

The defense, I think, is a shade below Houston.

“And that's what's going to keep them in games.”

Like Vans Joseph, they have 68 and 63 sacks over the last two years. I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out. I mean, their defense is really good. It's that top three. But it's probably top six.

They had the best offence of land in either conference. Yep. I got them seven points for the offensive line. They'll give up sacks. Trader for Wado.

They have two receivers that I gave two points each two. Wado and Sutton. And Wado. I think we'll really help Bonex. And then they have Sean Peyton who's one of the six best coaches in the week.

So I can block. I can defend and I have a really good coaching staff. I'm not as scared about the schedule. Week 10 through 15 are pretty easy. By week, Raiders, Ed Stewart's dolphins, Ed Jets at Raiders.

And then they get the chargers the last week. I'm. You're going over. I mean, that's. Oh, I'm not only going over.

I'm 11 and six and an overlock. This is one of my locks. I'm in on Denver. Wow. I don't understand why.

It's just too much of a foundation here.

Like one injury that thing can fall apart. This team has like things can happen and they'll still be okay. You know, things happen last year and they're okay. But they'd really happen. I mean, it's a little bit of a window team too.

They're in a little bit of a similar spot with the paths where it's next on a rookie deal. Right. Where you were able to spend this money all these different ways. I really like our J Harvey. I thought he had real moments.

I want to see more from him. Well, it was a good pick up. He throws short. Anything like at the line of skirmish stuff. He's going to make a big play out of.

Our fantasy guys were really bullish on water. Like they were just like this guy. Talk about bad quarterbacks. You know, he's put a big stats last year. I'm just absolute crap.

So I'm in. I this is my favorite team in the division. And I like the division two to one odds. I already bet that. I have the over like I'm in on this thing.

All right. I have nine and eight.

“I think that's a tough tough for always stretched.”

Three and three out of those. Okay. Next team is the Kansas City Chiefs over is nine and a half division plus 175. They better division odds than the Denver Broncos. Go fucking figure that one minus 174 for the playoffs plus 146 not to make the playoffs.

Under eight NAF ones is plus 190 13 plus is plus 440. They were six and 11 last year.

They basically flip their secondary.

They lost McGuffy. They drafted the lane as as. What was he like the six pick in the draft. I'm always here. We're going back.

Yeah, moved up to get them. They drafted him in a defensive tack on an edge on the top 40. Yep. They got down as a wide receiver sleeper. My homes is allegedly healthy.

So when this happened to Brady. After the ACL the O eight season they still went 10 and six without him. Then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run air of a O nine and two thousand ten before they rebooted and ran off the next thing. They were still good.

They were like 10 and six one year. The other year they had the number one offense. I just don't see the talent with Kansas City. Like I don't feel like there's a foundation. And it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reed.

Like, well, and they'm homes and read. And it's like read was terrible last year. Their coaching staff was terrible. All the stories that came out from Kansas City. Was that the team was unfocused.

That guys were lazy coming out of meetings. Like that it was kind of like, you know, the classic. The players were running the team. And yeah. I don't see it.

Like they son kind of walker. Okay. Rashie Rice might not be in jail for most of their fine. Were these healthy? Or were sure he's good.

It's a lot of like glass have full with them because they're the chiefs. I would argue this is like the rebuilding air to lead to next year. Like Kelsey, I just feel like I didn't even give him points.

“I think it's over for him as an impact guy.”

And then Chris Jones is, but 32, 33. Just feels like they're going to move into this different air. And I think they know it from the way they treated trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks. I think this is a transition year for them. I'm under.

I'm under. I think I shouldn't say anything. I don't want to get in your way here. But no, and I maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the chiefs. Oh my god, you could get him at to win 10 games and you'll get that's the over your good with that.

And I think when we give our top three or four quarterbacks,

it's always still going to be my homes in there.

I'm going to take the over until it gives me a reason not to. Everything over here is ten and seven. Yeah, for him. Ten and seven. And you said what you said is true.

Like he thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering. And anyone who has a Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the tower's with cut away. He knows he doesn't get that 14 yard pass until like the late. Because he's in a dollar in our league this year. Yeah, I think like my wife took him in her draft.

I'm like, oh, what is that then she yelled at me. She's like, oh, we have to root for them. I, yeah, I don't know. Take God out there. You screwed up.

But they, the NFL is a way of doing moms of favor. And they did it this year. And they rehab bowl against phonics. It's the very last game of week one. So they gave him enough time.

They gave him an easy early schedule.

First of all, he has a buy in week five.

Yeah. And then what is the, what are the first three? I forgot now. I forget. It's Broncos cold stuff and raiders by.

Right. So trying to buy him as much as he needs. So maybe there's three in water for no. I'm not, I'm just not ready to close the book on him. I, I see getting the enemy back as a positive.

I know people laugh at that because we're. We're talking about the old garden, everything.

“And I think the Kenneth Walker signings like solid.”

We talked about like these. It's overbladed if you take a Super Bowl MVP.

They will.

Larry Brown was where my plan was going.

I think this is like. With the, you know, lacking the tight end outlet pass.

“I think Kenneth Walker on a screen is going to be the outlet.”

And it's going to help. And I think it's going to make the offense good enough. It's a defense who did okay through the draft. The second year. No, that's really young.

That's the thing. They're going to be 12 or 17 at bills at ramps. Yeah. Both on Thursdays at Bengals home Patriots on a Monday night. 49ers at chargers.

Mm hmm. On a row. Right. I can't get there with it. And it's.

It reminded me of the early 2020s paths when we're giving Bella check all that respect and rope. Cause you use Bella check. Maybe. And it's like at some point this is you get any of the older coach that you answered your own question. I think it was out to lunch last year.

And I think he's the most media protected QB in either conference. Especially with all the shit that happens that team off of the field. Well, Chan Hansen most media for. Well, Shannon for law law enforcement and. Yeah.

But the read is like everybody's looking the other way is this. It's he's going to be 70 soon. Like this is. I don't know. Now there was six and eleven at a plus 34 point differential.

That I think is important. And there's some stupid games. The Jaguar's game is the dumbest last probably the year. They went from nine one score wins to one. Yeah.

They're never in the middle.

It's like 10 to one. That's the concerning thing to your point. You're going to ride with me homes until he. He proves that you shouldn't do that. Well, he did have five fifth quarter touchdown fourth quarter interceptions.

Six and eight. And by the way, he got hurt at the closer to the end of the season. He was already done six and eight. Like he should get a little more crap. Has feels more strongly than I did.

Yeah. I'm way out on this Kansas City team. I don't. I mean, this this is.

“You have to do what you're doing, which is say priors.”

And that's the case for this kids city team. Priors aren't playing in the secondary for this team. Priors aren't this this past rush for the for the chiefs has been worse year over year. And they haven't done anything to improve the past rush. So you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with the past rush.

Their defense was the reason that they lost games last year. The offense was. The homes had a pretty good year efficiency wise. And he's offence of land was awful. And and it's and it's not much better this year coming in below average.

Just here. It's not spags on defense pulling off. You know, it's not. It's not. It's not I get it, but it's not like we've been like that.

Mahomes would come in back with an ACL and like any time they're in a big game for the quarter. He takes off. He runs. He uses his legs. So you're going to do that again. If it doesn't, it's that's done.

Is he going to be more stationary like Brady. I didn't feel even though the stats were relatively the same. I felt like it took him two years to get. Yeah, the guys fall and ran your knees. I just don't think they go one and five in the in the division again.

So given if they go three and three now they're back up to eight. I think they can get the 10. I think this is all reputation. And if we just argue and told one of us. We're going to look to the next team.

They play a lot of good cubies to drink a burrow. Herbert twice Allen. Yeah. Staten for the next twice. Darn on party.

Yeah. Chargers nine and a half. I went back and forth on this one the most of all 30 teams. You did. Division plus one ninety five.

I think that's a good bet.

“I think chargers and Broncos are good bets.”

Like you could argue bet both of those. And just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats you. Play half minus one fifty eight. Number one seed plus eight hundred under seven. Half is plus three ten best record 14 and one.

Then we're 11 and six last year. You're three far. He wins 11 games every year. Yep. I think he's in the 10 win club.

Which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins.

Mikey. Mikey back his new DJ. Coming in to new DJ. He's bringing in he's going to use some salsa and some disco. He's going to play some memorian people like the rookie pass.

Russia. Yeah. The bad side. They lost Jesse mentor. There he lost their center.

The guards suck too. And schedule rest. He's all time. We're in sharp like. Had a stroke about their schedule rest.

It was minus 24. It was like the highest. The worst they've ever measured for schedule rest. Yeah. I saw a lot of travel, but this team doesn't have home game.

So I think they're like, yeah, get us to the road. Yeah. 17 games. So that them and the Shawn Watson. Just playing on the road all year.

I. I landed at 10. And that's a slate over. I just couldn't pick. Harba for nine wins.

Hmm. I really worried about the middle of their line though. Like you lose the center and their guards are both terrible. And their tackles are elite. But everything in the middle is awful.

And our team's just going to. Yeah. Push through the middle out on. Um.

I haven't been 11.

And I know they're starting with this bullshit with the beard does being out in the offensive line.

I know like the 27 best injury lock in the league, but slater and all being back. It's all the difference when those guys. What are 11 games without those guys? Yeah. It's fucking crazy.

Exactly. It really is nuts. And I have to think Mike McDaniel. I really this could be the biggest overreaction in terms of a. Assistant coming over a coordinator coming over.

“But well, that's how bad their offense was before.”

Yeah, right. I like it. I like him winning 11. I have them winning. I really want to do 11.

I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest and. Yeah. The center really threw mate that threw me off. They're starting a rookie at center. Yeah, it's not.

The whole strange is one of their starting guards. So bad. The paths were. The paths who didn't even have a good offensive plan last year is like, we're going to get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to plan.

Just wave them. Um. Yeah. Losing mentor worries me as well. And they have a schedule.

So they go cardinals, Raiders first two.

We'll tune up. There you go. And then they have the next seven or just all time. At bills at sea hox, Broncos at chiefs, by week at Rams. Texans at Ravens.

It's a fucking gauntlet. And then you got to keep your quarterback. Yeah. You know, upright. That Texans game.

You think the Texans are going to be going up the middle and the chargers. Fifty-four sacks last year, third most Bernie quarterback. So I just think if they could just pretend. I mean, that's the case for everything. It happened only played in nine games.

That could help them out a little bit. You know, if they get a little bit of run game. I do think Herbert and me suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got the January last year. It was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped. You know, and the fact that the the chargers offence was worse than the paths.

But at some point, when you're just going back, just assuming I only have 2.3 seconds to throw out. I'm about to take a giant hit. At some point, as the stakes get higher and more steps going on and the teams get better. You're not having the red zone a lot and couldn't score.

And that's supposed to be where Mike McDonald's going to turn it around. I don't like camping as much as some others, but I do think having him the whole year will probably help. Receivers, I don't love. They're fine.

Yeah. Herbert's a very sexy MVP pick. It's Latin Maconkey Quentin Johnston and Tray Harrison already. A couple of those guys are a question. All right.

So we're both over for them. And then the last team is the loss, Vegas Raiders over under five and half wins. Five to one to make the playoffs. Fifteen one for the division.

They were three and 14 last year.

“Eight to one if you want to go for them for worse record.”

They've improved their offensive line and improved their run game and they have Mendoza lurking. Plus they've couldn't Kubiac. Yeah. Why wouldn't we go over on this?

Oh, I was going to say this is my most embarrassing pick of all picking that over. I won't do what I've done in prior years. Take them to get a wildcard or anything that. Yeah. But I do think they're going to go seven and ten.

I have for this team. And it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza. It's dumb reasoning like Kubiac is a few years ago, but Kubiac and Cousins. That was his most productive year at 31 touchdown passes that year.

Now I can only say this with so much confidence for a team that both of the wide receiver room of trade Tucker Jack Beck and Malik Benson, which I think only next to the dolphins is that might be worse in the dolphins. But little Max Crosby.

Carma in there, they spent three hundred and eight million dollars in free agency.

That's the second most. You know, they got talent on the mound. They got some Colton Miller. They have some good linemen in there. Yeah.

“I think they're going to be competitive.”

Yeah. You went under. I went under. How you did after all that? Yeah.

I had just had to been five and twelve. I couldn't get there. But safe. You know. Kubiac, sure.

He's going to be way better than the ghost to Pete Carroll. Right. The franchise just seems like a mess. I don't know what's going on with them. Like that Pete Carroll hiring was weird.

They spent money. But then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza. And then they brought in cousins as a Mendoza stopgap. But Mendoza's clearly going to play by week four and have nobody to throw to. And genty this six-pick last year was bizarre.

I just think the roster's too weird for me. Can I give you my Tom Brady take care? I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team. Right. It's so low on the list.

And I think it's purposely. It's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit, you know, he's doing roasts, he's doing subway commercials when he hasn't had a piece of bread

He's gone after whatever the fuck Paul brother.

Everything's over the tight leather pant photo shoots. It's all to distract the fact that he owns the raiders. And that's what he's staying away from. So I guess I'm saying good job by him. He's like the goat of distractions too.

The best defense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet. Yeah. Throw it all out there. And the broadcasting, which is his thing.

“Well, that was the controversy of the first part of the season, right?”

The broadcasting and him being the owner. Yeah. Was he in on Pete Carroll and pretty quickly became apparent. He was out on him. That was a big storyline.

Does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable? Like him himself. Does he ever get that involved somehow? Does he like he cares so much? Crazy.

How old is he now? Four to five. You think later for this? Me turn that thing. That means you can question about the over under.

Because they play the AFCs, the NFC West, the NIA in this division. So what's their record in the division? One and five. Okay. This is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for.

I've done this. One and five are oh and six. I totally agree with this. I know where you're going. I get two wins.

They always have one score games against Denver.

And I think they pull one and five. Oh and six. Okay. Let's go one and five. All right.

You want to let me go two and four, but that's fine. Bill's Patriots Ram Seahawks. Let's go on four for those. Now I'm at one and nine. Almost be the Patriots.

Set out. Now do the Niners. In the Niners are sitting there as well. I just see if you go the one and nine for those 10 games. I need to go five and two in the other seven games.

“And that's why I went under Jets, Arizona, Miami.”

And by the way, every bad other bad team you're playing, they're like, holy shit. We might win this week with the Raiders. Okay. I couldn't get that. I wasn't proud of that.

I didn't finish strong there, but I did have them. Listen, I didn't make it a lock.

I'm just, I didn't really love it either way.

House, your NFC, your FC West thoughts. Yeah. I like Denver to win this division. Mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at two to one. And the way I think that Denver and the Chargers are like neck and neck.

And my, the reason I went in direction of Denver is because I match up the units. I think that Denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense defense, special teams. I like the Denver defense, the best out of all of them. The schedules are comparable obviously because they're in in division.

And the Chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line. It's, it's annoying. I'd really like to see this charge is on that. It's one time. I might only help it in a bit a month ago and the Chargers for the division before the center injury.

You might have. So it's Broncos Chargers chiefs. I'm so far out on the chiefs. I'm doing all wonders on the chiefs. And then Raiders under five and a half because the math you just laid out.

That's why I'm putting this.

“This is one of my favorite exact Broncos Chargers chiefs, Raiders.”

I think that's how it goes. I look forward to Zoe and Hank and picture them on a yacht after the Texans win the Super Bowl. And you know, I go, that's nice. Who's yacht is that? And he's like, it's mine.

I took all your money out of the Fandle of account. I withdrew. You did it. That's the best. You have C locks.

So you had which locks? What did I have? I have 'cause I had Houston over nine and a half. And I had Denver over nine and a half as my only two locks on the F.C. So I did seven total.

Right. I'm going Chargers over. I'm going Jets over. And that's it. All right.

It's only at four locks total. Yeah, that's it. I had for the NFC Dallas over. Watched an under Tampa over Atlanta under Seattle over. Right.

And then you had Green Bay. Green Bay over. And did I have for you at some unders? A bunch of those. So many hours.

Yeah. That's fine. We're coming back probably a week from when this. We from when this airs. Yeah.

Where do you guess the lines? But we're asking for NFL future drafts. And that's going to be this Sunday heading into NFL season. And then you guys on the ringer wise guys. You're going to finish the last division.

Yep. Yeah. We have two NFC. One day in Friday. Yes.

Yeah. Very remote changes picks right up to when you guys start the show. The run down. There we go. We did it south.

Yeah. Four hours. Thirty two teams. Only couple arguments. One dead fish.

One fish. One fish. One illegal gambling story. We had a whole bunch of stuff. Thanks house.

My pleasure. Thank you for letting me sit in the Craig chair.

Thank you. Thank you. Thanks. Thanks. Eduardo.

Thanks everybody at the ringer.

“And don't forget to come back on the beer spot and ringer wise guys.”

And then me and Sal. We from now. Good job by you. Good job. Good job.

All right.

That's it for the podcast.

Thanks to Sal and House. Thanks to Eduardo and how. As always. Don't forget.

“New rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon.”

ET time. Can't wait for that.

Because we did a really good movie.

Like a really really good one. I'll see you on this feed. Probably Tuesday. Might just be Thursday this week. But I think it's going to be Tuesday.

Thursday this week.

“So I'll see you at some point this week.”

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