The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

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Yeah, baby. Year 21 is because, wow, we have been doing podcasts together about the NFL since the 2007 season. I did the math, that's 20 years, this year. Hold on, I don't know if we did over under is a no 7, but this is our 20th season together. We brought some special guests.

Fair faucet is here, we're on the people we had our first crush.

“I think she likes me, she's a little different.”

Don Johnson's going to have a couple cigarettes. And then Joe House and the Craig C. Wow, amazing. He looks so much more alive than Don and Farrah. How did you get that post?

I warned my goat hat to Joe House poster.

To be here with the goats.

Don Johnson is going to be upset when we take the dolphins under doing half one. Yeah, I think he's going to be upset. Joe House is going to chime in after every division. And then also be a tiebreaker for us every once in a while. All right.

We don't want to mess with the format too much. But it's fine. That house is here. We're doing a big ringer fantasy football draft tomorrow. Venice is already quit the draft five times.

But we're doing that live on Netflix tomorrow. And this is a two-part podcast. This is the NFC win total of runners. And then that's going to be live on Netflix. And then AFC will be running on Sunday.

We're doing it all once today.

“And this is one of my favorite days of the time.”

We had some redemption stuff. So I don't neither have us did that well last year. No, no, no. It was a lot of red, a lot of red marking. What happened?

Because the higher end stuff, I feel like I did well. And it was like the middle class. Well, that was the best day of the year. Because we're going to go 32 and oh, after today.

And then the week one, when Cincinnati actually loses the whole first month.

I'm like, well, that'll happen. Well, so big picture. Everyone has too much information now. Yeah. This is the hardest to run.

You guys have been doing that in a ringer game. Like show vision by division. You've done a great job of not tipping your hand. Thank you. You and I, the whole summer.

So really the first year, we really tried to not tell each other what we're thinking. Yeah. It's like the bride and groom aren't supposed to see each other today. I'm the wedding, but ours is like 60 days. Yeah.

House knows some of my stuff. We went over some stuff today. As we, as we digested Bianco's pizza from last night. Mm-hmm. We had a lot of pizza.

You don't, you haven't even, you've been healthier. Cutting down on a, I presented my plate to you. I'm like, look, look what I've turned into. I've turned in the bill Simmons. Right.

Yeah. With no cross was left. Yeah. Me, I was eating pizza. I'm wearing a seat belt now.

I don't know what's happening. I don't know if I believe that or not.

“I think that's just to get everyone off your face.”

No, I've been wearing it. Yeah. I've been wearing it. Yeah. I've been wearing this.

How's that going? It's confining. That is true. That is the one thing they say about that. Confining on a plane.

We're on a plane. We're on a plane. I, only if they yell at me. Okay. So you need to feel like on a plane.

It's nothing good's happening either way. I agree. It's not like, oh, if that guy who were a seat belt got saved. Run the crash. Right.

What about in a submarine? Oh, forget it. Let's not talk about crashes before we're about to. And I've see overrunters. So every year, the cousin I, we picked the over under totals, which we're getting from

Fandel, Fandel sports book. They're getting better at better at the juice at the totals.

We're not going to date.

We'll mention if the juice is but we can't do anything about the juice. No. There's some minus one 35. There's some minus one 30s. We're going to talk about some all lines.

We've been in as too many options. Years ago, we've been 27. Imagine if we had alt lines. Like, oh, my God. We lose our minds.

But now it's like, oh, this is the cheesecake factory menu. What are we going to do? Well, you get to the point. You look at it. You, you, you form the opinions on the overrunters.

Hmm.

And I would say about third week of August.

The alt lines start becoming really appealing. And I thought, even on the random game of show, we're into the NFC's first.

“I think it was the bundle who was saying how this has a chance to be the one seed”

on this division because of the two weaker teams. Hmm. And talking one seed, that that stuff we couldn't have bet. I don't feel like ten years ago. One seed.

One seed. That's record in the league. Yeah. Oh, that's come along. Party lose my voice.

Only three minutes in. I'm so excited. You said the kid, like, the kids are like, oh, summers over my wife's like, yeah, that'd go to school. I'm like, get the, get everybody go to get out of here.

I have three team teasers to lose. We have to talk football. Let's get this September. Nothing for this. And now we're here.

One of the wrinkle. Yeah. Both of our teams have a chance to be good. You're over under that and a half. Mine's 10 and a half.

Both of them been thrown into arguments about who could win a conference. Your team, dare I say is becoming kind of the hot, the hot popular pick. Players know what new about emerging. Everyone's talking about that. Thanks to defense.

So we're going to talk about them in a second.

We're going to start with the NFC's. Okay. House is division as well. Yeah. Yeah.

House is just sad about the redskins now commanders. Hmm. But we'll talk about that too. We're going to start the Philadelphia Eagles. It's over under 10 and a half.

There's juice on the under division plus 130. Feels like that's stayed the same. But the cowboy is division nine's of draft. 19 won for Super Bowl minus 162 for the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins.

If you wanted to go for the everything goes wrong season plus 210. That's record 111. They were 11 and six last year. We have a little game. We're going to play this year.

We had we had readers suggest that we should do like a what if thing. Like basically a what if for every team. So we'll be. That's. Yeah.

Yeah.

I want to do a what if for each team.

Okay. My what if for this team? What if they don't miss AJ Brown ago? Hmm.

“That would be the big reason not to take them, right?”

Definitely. Yeah. I'm looking at, you know, when your offense is comically inefficient. What do you do? You fire the OC.

Yep. And you get rid of your stud receiver. Then that should fix everything. But yeah, you're right. How what he was reading books on the sideline.

Didn't use them anyway. Didn't seem great for team chemistry. Yeah. I found the email. It was from Joe from Charlotte.

Oh, no, no. Joe for Charlotte. Sean and Patrick. He said my 11 year old son Patrick and our big fans. We fake this segment at home.

Like we're a ringer podcast. So we play what if. Pickle player is good or bad. I'm going to extend that out to to this like what if they don't miss AJ Brown. I think it's a good one.

I listen, I did my talent thing with it with the Eagles. I think they have one of the five most stacked roster in the league. I don't even think it's arguable. I had six guys in their defense that got points. It five guys on their offense get points.

They have a top three offensive line. They've been there. They win 10 or 11 games every year. And the overrunner is 10 and a half. And I just don't understand it.

It seems like people are anxiously trying to push this team out of the double digit. Win range. And kind of ignoring how loaded the roster is.

“I don't do you you hate the Eagles, but do you understand?”

Well, I understand. I don't know why. What are you giving your offensive points based on because it's much different from year to year. Now, right? You have to take one bark.

We had 2,000 yards rushing went down to 1100. So we're going to put them right in the middle of 15. That would be a good year. Yeah. I have him like, I don't know.

He's somewhere between the fifth and ninth best running back. Right. And we should probably lead with the push push, which you won't hear me complain about as much this year because they went from like 81% conversion to 64%. Hurts runs a lot less, which I'm going to talk about this a lot.

Where quarterback turned like 28 years old. That seems like the sweet spot. They're running less. He's already running less. He averages like six six and a half.

That's a running less. You're running less. A little bit. Yeah. Yeah.

The runs more. But you're running less. So I don't know what where you put this offense. And McIlemon will have to step up to replace it. We're like a receiver short of film.

Yeah. Exactly. I should've thought they shouldn't trade it for booty. Okay. I really liked him last year.

I didn't enter. I get the paths were kind of too loaded at receiver. But that the Texans kind of stole him.

He made big plays for us last year.

Yeah.

They feel like a receiver short.

Big gotter year. I just I love good offensive lines. Yeah. They're so few of them now. Right.

Like Tampa has one. They have one. But you know Buffalo has one. And I just wonder if that's like almost a cheat code now. But they're D.

Carter Davis. Foreign greener. Yeah. Four pros. The Jean Mitchell.

Mm. You know. It's on and on. It's nice. And the GM.

It does. He does. He picks up two guys a year that you're like, Oh, my God. Yeah. Of course that worked out.

But I feel like that offense. I don't know what their identity is anymore. It used to be grind. But can it be worse? They flip the coordinator again.

Mm. Like my my argument would be you're kind of buying. High on something that everybody's kind of giving up on being it.

But I always felt like they went too slow.

Right. Like they were almost trying to protect hurts. And I just don't think I'm going to do that anymore. Yeah. They play the AFC South and the NFC West and a first place schedule.

They don't play a lot of good quarterbacks. They play back twice. Statenios twice. Stafford Caleb Donald. And.

Pretty. I have them over. It's a slide over. It's an 116 for me. Wow.

But I couldn't get to seven wins when I went through it. I just think they have too much talent. I think it's this is stupid. Yeah. I mean, look, they have what one of two teams to make the playoffs in each of the last five years.

So that helps. I hate that they have back to back. They broke that streak like 22 years for the NFC East. Try not to get them a third division title. I have them at nine wins.

They had they were in the four games. Yeah. They're nine and eight. And then I'm going to take the under the adjusted under.

“I think you get plus 125 for under nine a half.”

If you want to do that. Oh, my God. Way on the. Yeah. I'm going to shove those winnings right off.

Big thumbs. This feels personal there. It is a little bit. I still do this still to this nonsense. That I was told by many people.

House that there are websites that I'll do this for you. But I put the wins and laws. I'm like, oh, okay. I give the fillies and win over Arizona. I've got to get Arizona lost.

I got to that sheet. So I'm a maniac with this. But meticulously. I said nine and eight. Yeah.

It's more likely to happen if you're holding the paper. That's what you need to paper. Right. Exactly. A big thing for me.

And I'm not to spoil the rest of the discussion about the division. But I think the other teams in this division other than Dallas are going to be bad. And I'm just operating like Dallas and Philly can both go four or no in their divisions.

Now Philly always has the weird Washington game every year.

Right. Where? Is it every year or ever? It's pretty much every year. There's something weird.

And you're like Philly's a big favorite. You have them in a three teamer or a two teamer. There's some sort of parlay. Yeah. And all of a sudden they're down 10, 10, 7 in the fourth quarter.

You know what happened. But here's one other thing. Oh, so before we finish. Yeah. Well, first of all, new O.C.

Better Chemistry. Add a J.L. and Phillips and Wollen. I don't know how they keep adding phrases every year. But I feel like this is like a last for our season for them. Because they have these offensive lime in that are talking about retiring.

Right. This is almost definitely lane Johnson's last year. They have the Hertz contract. They paid some guys. They have some younger guys that they hit some draft picks.

But they're going to have to pay those guys to. They have the Barclay money. Like I don't think this is sustainable passes year. And I feel like during this season, if they need something, they're going to go get it. Right.

“I think a few teams in the NFC is weird to say kitchen sink for teams that have had success.”

But this team, the Rams and away are all in the lions. I think are all in like this is that window kind of closes after this. Except for the fact that you're right. They play in the NFC East, which I gave one over. And it's going to surprise you which over I gave.

But it's not the same. I'm going to be a dick. Is that what you're supposed to do from the Craig chair. You said J.L. and Phillips. He is now on Carolina.

They added greener. Oh, I had to go on greener. I like this though. The correction. Okay.

Good. Good. Don't mention it. Don't do it from the house. I don't appreciate it.

No. I meant greener. I said J.L. You did. Phillips laughing.

That was really good house. I needed to be corrected. I'm old. That's okay. So am I.

Plus house is awake in the morning. That's one thing with house. It's way better in the morning. It's midday. I'll use coast.

Yeah. He's really awake. Okay. So I'm over your under. They play on Thanksgiving.

Good swing both of these. Dallas is nine and a half. And pretty straight action. Did it start at eight and a half? Yeah.

And it bumped up. Last year was the opposite. Mm-hm. You were up one and it dropped a win and it seemed like a red flag. Plus 175 for the division.

“Minus 120 for the playoffs, which I think is one of the single best bets.”

I just feel like they're one of the biggest. Yeah. I think they're one of the best in MC teams. Wow. 12 plus wins plus 270.

I would personally recommend the number one seed at 13 to one if you're going to do the 12 plus.

Really like them.

Best record 16 when last year there were seven nine and one. I hate this.

Well, let me ask you this first.

I hate how excited everyone is. Including me.

“What would you consider to be right now a successful cowboy season?”

This is a what if you're in mid January. No, we're not even at the weather. Let's say it's February 15th, the season's over. Okay. What's a successful cowboy season for you?

Now obviously you can't say the Super Bowl. But what's like a realistic success season. Jerry Jones. Not a stroke. But now what's underneath.

What was he at those minis? Yeah. Yeah. He needs a defibrillator. Populations.

I think. Oh, we're going to give our division picks at the end of each. Yeah, I think. I think nine and eight and then on embarrass themselves defensively. There's a good.

That's a success. Yeah, I think so. So you haven't even moved mentally to. We have to make the playoffs. I think I think that could be enough to make the playoffs in this division.

I do say I am really usually you know how it is. You if I fall out of favor with this team, you'll talk me back in. You're all right. Let's see. Let's say they beat Carolina.

They beat New Orleans and like we we have to go through all this. Yeah, I'm usually in and out of this team four times.

I'm never usually in on them in August.

I like everything they did in the off season. I did too. Like I hate saying it. I literally like every move George Pickins was going to be a headache. They locked him up franchise tag them with a smile.

Right. Javante Williams a miracle thousand yard brush your last year for them. Good job. They got him defensively. I love it.

Now, Ky Lawrence. The Caleb Downs is looking like the best the the edge rusher from Michigan to third rounder. Everyone loves him. Caleb Downs was the most predictable everybody going nuts about him. August.

Right. You knew it in the draft that's like this guy's going to fall for spots too low. Yeah. And everybody's going to love him and he's going to be awesome immediately. They extend Quinn Williams.

Jones is not going to lose this Parsons trade. He if it's a lasting he does more than making a playoff. He has to be able to say I want this micro Parsons trade. So extend Quinn Williams. They sign Rishan Gary.

They're doing good preseason. Ed Von Miller is like deep deep deep back up. Great. Just in case. When the house is team did it.

I laughed last year. But then he had like nine and a half sex, which would have led the team.

Bring him in a couple of third rounds in a big game.

And he's like a consultant too. Yeah. Pass a rush consultant as well. Preseason. He kicked the crap out of the defending champ.

See Hawks. Yeah. They literally kicked the crap out of the Saints and they're joined practice. And then another joined practice with the Rams. They say at the end of it, they're like, hey, we're running win sprints.

You want to join us? And they're like, ah, kids, go ahead. God, you do your thing. And you like the coach too. He was good last year.

I do. He's not bad. Wasn't like the easiest year last year. But, right. It seems like the team likes them.

And he or flew seldom back. Well, and defensively, they were garbage. Absolutely garbage has to get better. And I feel like their defenses not been the same since I watched them with house. And you against the packers and the playoffs in the living room.

They've lost their home field edge. And they lost any kind of defensive semblance. But they're new defensive coordinator. He's like, he's 29 years old. I had them at Parker.

My play rankings had them at 20 points, which isn't bad. 20 up is usually around three playoffs. Yeah. I had to Eagles at 32, by the way. Yeah.

Quiet drama free cowboy season for the most part of the off season. Yeah. Like, no, you don't have some weird contract told that or Jerry being weird. Nothing like that. My wood if for this team was what if this is the team people seem to think the bangles are going to be.

Because I do think they're the energy bangles.

“But I think because I was like, all the bangles.”

They're defenses better. Cool. You made your defense better. But you have a better offensive line. And just a better offense.

I think a more reliable offense in general. Yeah. I don't know. I just worry about the offense. I guess it is a good comparison.

But when that plays, I think the number is like 11 plus games. They're top 8 offense. Always. So then I'm problem scoring points. It's keeping them off the board.

They're moving to a three four defense. They can move to a freaking one six. I'm going to give a crap. Just something different. You got a good net rest edge.

Yeah. Third. Get 12 games in a dome. At the road games are rough. And you play some good defenses.

Play Philly twice. Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, Green Bay. It's a giant twice. If they're going to be a good defense who knows. Yeah.

I'm a hard over. Really. Yeah. I'm a fully erected over. I'm a word.

Nine and a half. From a farer here.

“I think I think I have them for 11 and six.”

I did stare at the 12 plus wins at plus 270. I think some stuff would have to go right from a health standpoint. And you'd probably have to catch in that bad schedule. Like one or two of those teams in a week where one of their guys are hurt or whatever.

I think it's either 11 or 12.

And this is we're doing locks this year. I didn't tell you what to slap a lock down on a pick. Oh, really? Yeah. We do this in MBA.

We never really did this for NFL.

Okay. This is my first lock over nine and a half dollars. Oh, man. This is so scary. Because this is just how he could yell.

He's doing to you. One and three could yell at me is like, this is your fall, but. Well, they're not going to be one and three because I opened with Washington. I'm not on that spiteful like you. I wouldn't give your quarterback of the rockatory nickname.

And then I don't really wish it to say on pods and interest. Probably wear a t-shirt for week one, Jake may be. Oh, I got to get that one. You're right. I like being right when you money and Dallas is going to be good this year.

“And I think there's five teams I like in the NFC and we just did two of them.”

I have nine and eight and I have the Eagles at nine and eight. So we won't pick our division yet, but. So that's an under that's an under unfortunately. That's another. See that that it were last year.

So it feels like an emotional edge. Yeah. Seven and 10 to nine and eight always a tough schedule. You know, the defense has a lot of work to do. Really a lot.

You know, 511 points allowed 30 plus and eight games.

Let's get that down. Did that feel like an emotional edge to a thousand percent. Okay. This is the cousin cell under seven. His enthusiasm.

We're taking us full quick and William season. You also have the Parsons not. Probably coming back to like week eight and even when he comes back won't be a hundred percent. So there'll be a lot of like, whoa. Did win that train.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Next one. The Washington C words.

Uh-oh. Uh-oh. There are over seven and a half wins. Under six and a half, all unfando plus 125 under five and a half plus 220. Worst record.

If you wanted to get really crazy. 15 to one. That's so mean. There are five and 12 last year. Six to one for the division.

“By the way, 71 for the Super Bowl plus 280 for the playoffs.”

Um, they lost tonsil for the season. And I didn't like their offensive line and begin with and there's been. You're actually reading like the day to day reports. The be really going nuts. Really rough stuff with the offensive line.

Which normally like that everybody has a good offensive line. But their quarterback is 127 pounds. So the skinny quarterback who got her last year combined with nobody can block. Right. I'm out.

Man. I have them over. I like them. I think we're right. We're that here.

Three and a row. We've disagree. Yeah. A year ago, we said this is the regression team. They had a ton of luck.

Right. The hell, Mary. Right. I get the house against the bears and all that Daniel's terrific. They're going to get injury luck.

They spent a ton of money on old players last year. Yeah. They spent the ton of money. I think top three. 200 million.

And it's a more balanced age wise. Well, after they were 11 months older than the next oldest team, which is gigantic difference. It doesn't seem like it. Offensive line. That that part sucks for sure.

But they had seven games with Jane Daniels. I have them at eight and nine. I think. Oh, and Sony's sunny styles. Styles is a good pick.

Right. Oh, it's a nice pick up defensively. Styles is a good pick. But it also might be. We couldn't.

We should've taken Caleb down. I like week five. Yeah. That's interesting. That's interesting.

How about this. West welkers? They're tight end coach. That. West.

Kind of coach. I don't know why. I don't know. He convinced them. Plus nine rest advantage.

Zero opponents coming off a buy. I see like eight wins here. Three division wins. Plus Indy Tennessee and Arizona. They'll win a dumb one over Cincinnati or something.

So I kind of had eight. Not only do I have them under seven and a half. It's a lock for me. It's my second lock. Real.

You don't have to lock yet. I don't have to. Yeah. The first division. Two locks already.

Oh, he can't keep in his pants. Oh, he's only doing this. I'm very fast and locked. This. Everything.

Schedules. I mean, they start out at Ego's home at Cowboys. Home Sea Hawks. And then they have to go to London and play the quotes. That could be owned for before we're even in October yet.

Or middle of October yet. But I don't say it all.

I, I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired.

House was adamant this morning over Lafay. No way. They'll keep them for the whole year. But I, I didn't think of you a good job. Last year either.

It could be a top five for us. Well, I mean, so many Andrews.

“I think the fourth most injured team out there.”

So yeah, and he's not building the roster. Like they tried to run it back after 2024. So you can't fire him for for two years. They tried. I mean, sound made the point.

They got, they, they tried to run back that same oldest team in the NFL.

That experience veteran stuff.

Of course they had injury regression. The other thing was they were horrific in terms of creating turnovers. Yeah. Because all those old guys are step behind everybody. This defense is the big wildcard.

There's seven new stars on the defense. So the whole season will come down to whether or not the defense, you know, is different. He has to as representing because he's a DC fan doesn't want to see like a party pooper. Yeah, there's been private conversations. Oh, yeah, it's been this up to my side.

No, I know.

Well, the problem is, tonsil.

Like, what a punch in the cock. How about this? Tonsil. Yeah.

“What skill guys do you like on the, on the commanders?”

It's like 30th best receiver in the league. You didn't mind digs. They have that. What has he come Arkansas? You got the Antonio way.

Guys, right. It's good. And God bless digs, digs played 35 plays a game. He's a possession receiver. They didn't have one in the last year.

It was disappeared in the playoffs. I mean, that in the super ball. They're running back those way, Bill. And the tight end coach is West Walker. You should be in on this thing.

I'm out. It's a great point. It's a part of the tight end from Tennessee. How's who did you get for this? Huh?

How'd you have for the over for this for your own team? I can't remember what we said on the NXT East Show. Eight is a super hard number to get to. Cause this schedule is just a punch in the dick. You can't remember if you have over under.

I can't remember. It's on the it's on the really rare wise guy show. I bet I did the over and said. David. Wow.

The new offensive coordinator. You remember that. We went some money. I'm glad. All right.

I don't see it at all.

“The other thing I don't like is near the end of the season.”

They have Adviking Zaggers. And then the Cowboys. And I just think unless the Cowboys are like the ones. That game's going to actually mean something for the Cowboys. So four of their last five are Houston, Minnesota, Jackson, Bill and Dallas.

They have a stretch week eight week nine week ten. Home Eagles on the Sunday night. Home Rams the next week. And then at giants on a Thursday night game. Yeah.

That's three and a row. And that's like that's the one where it's fun. Because I look at that 10 to 13 stretch. Giant since he hours on a 10 to see. There anywhere near four winds at that point.

There are an over under under for you over locked for me. So I've done two locks. No, then the way you went on. You are on there. I'm under Europe.

That's what I say. Yep. That's what you said.

Second mistake of the podcast.

It's for 20. That's Netflix. You know, Chappelle makes mistakes all the time. Netflix is like, what's going on? Where's the true crime stuff?

Where is guys going to try to kill each other? Last one of the giants. The over under seven and a half. Pretty even juice on that. Plus 550 for division.

They're for 13 last year. They are plus 265 to make the playoffs. Plus 290 for 10 plus winds. I'd probably recommend that under five and a plus 250 worst record 20 to one. First what if for me.

What if Jackson Dart plays eight games or less? Yeah. Well, guess what? He's going to play eight games or less. So what's your pick?

Knowing that Jackson Dart will not make it to ten games this season. Yeah. I mean, you get turned every other game. How would we analyze to it? Like three years ago.

It's like, well, he's not going to make it. Right? And then we were right. It did make it. This will be the same thing.

Yeah. And I don't know, man. Maybe you should pass me on this. I should pass because I just I just hate this team so much. But I'm going to go under.

I just don't think they have offensive players who played defensive football. Like, scatable took out like secondary guys yesterday. It's like, hey, this is an out contact thing. And dark can't stay on the field. He's going to the tennis complaining that they're attending in the tent.

Like he's been to the tent 43% of his games. Like, guess what? The league is not going to go under because of Jackson Dart. You have two concussions already. Yeah.

They can send you to the tent. Neighbors at least plays like an offensive player. And he can't stay on the field. Give me an over under for those three core offensive players playing together. Sorry, David, scataboo and Dart all playing a start to finish game together.

Yeah. Five and a half. Oh, man. I go under. Yeah.

“I think it's like three and a half is what I would say.”

I don't know. I don't know. And everybody, there's a lot of pressure on us. Media, we lose our media sports media card. If we don't take a fourth place team to win the division.

I don't think this is it at all. As you know, I, I love nothing more than that. Yeah. It's, and it's been really reliable over the years. And every year there's been pretty, pretty reliable picks for that.

Last year was a little tougher, but the Patriots were a great example. It was like, they added variable. They spent some money.

They finally had a good draft.

It was just easy. It's a comfortable possible. Yeah. You can see that coming in the odds kind of reflected it. Right.

I just don't think there's necessarily the team this year. You're like, you're really gamed in a force in it.

I wanted it to be the giant.

Like April, because they, they blew chippers on defense.

They, you know, they had two picks in the top 12 and some money to spend. But we didn't talk about the biggest reason. I don't think it's going to happen. I just, I'm not, I'm out on John Horrible. On Horrible.

Yeah. And I think it's going to tie into what I do in the AFC, too. Like, I think he ran his course there. I'm not even sure he was good to begin with. And I don't think this is like my variable going into the paths.

I don't think he's going to have an impact like that. And if anything, I think this season might expose. Maybe he wasn't as good as we thought because of what's happened with the Ravens and then the giants. So they were bad in one of the games last year. Yeah.

That famously, the Russell Wilson one, they blew to the Cowboys went to overtime and everything. And then John Horrible is going to fix that. No one blows 10 point leads like he does in the fourth quarter. Right.

“So that's, that's what's going to be another.”

We talked about this on the fantasy pod, too. It's a classic. Asked the teams fans. Hmm. What their opinion is.

Yeah.

And you know, like, I watch every Reds X game.

I literally, since the NBA draft, I think I've seen 95% in the season. And like, we have a short stop monastery who's like, I'm feel good story. He's terrible defensively.

And if you watch it day to day. So, like, there was a game in national game. Like, two weeks ago in Tom Verducci was the answer. And he's the national dancer. He doesn't know, but he's like a monastery.

I was been really good defensively. I'm, I'm a Reds Xer, like, oh, my God. That's the worst, the pity of the year. Right. But you know, the fans know.

He's not watching. And if you talk to any Ravens fan, they were completely out on Harbaugh. They just thought he was bad. Yeah.

The Canadian, the coal mine there is how bad he's been on fourth down decisions. And it's been going on for a while. He's in the bottom quarter of the league. And, and he's been overly unnecessarily conservative. And now he's paired with Matt Naggi.

Right. We didn't talk about that, Matt Naggi. Mm. But, you know, if you go backwards. It's probably getting fired that year when you threw Lamar and Lamar saved this job.

Then gave him the second run.

But I always felt like he was a little over it.

I thought his last couple years. I don't, I just don't feel like he got enough shit for everything. And it really seemed like some of the players were out on him, too. So, yeah. This is a, you know what?

Big under for me. Lock me in for this. Yeah, I don't want to fall too far behind with the locks. The other thing is no one gave up more big plays in the giant. It's a hundred and twenty four big plays.

And Dexter Lawrence is productivity tailed off a little.

“Yeah, like five sacks I think last year.”

It's because he was double teamed more than anybody else. Yeah. You give him up big plays. And the guy who's double teamed all year is gone now. So that's it.

So that's what's going to happen. Toughest road slate in the league. Rams Commanders Texans Eagles Colt Seahawks Lions Cowboys. It's another reason that this schedule is brutal. Rough five and twelve.

And then they end the season at Cowboys home Eagles. And I think both of those teams are going to have something to play for too. Yeah. And then the other question we haven't talked about this yet. But and it's not it didn't apply to Washington.

But as these teams get into December if they're out of it. How did they start handling that? We don't really have tanking in the NFL. But I feel like we're going to have a form of it this year. Well, we saw Jackson Dart right when they were out of it.

Like, we're going to keep them out of these meaningless games. So yeah, that's the closest you'll get to that. And your board maybe you decide Jackson Dart is not sustainable as it's starting QB we got to maybe think of another one. Okay.

So for the division you have.

“I have two nine win teams in the Cowboys and Eagles.”

And Cowboys have better plus number to win the division. So that's my team at nine and eight to take it. I have both the Cowboys and Eagles going 11 and six. So I'm going to have to recommend the division for the Cowboys. I'm leaning that way for the plus one 75.

Good for you. Don't get mad at me. Please. I have Cowboys over nine and a half lock. And I have Washington under seven and a half lock.

You have giants under five five or six. Five and what do we go? No. It's bigger seven and a half. Yeah, that's a lot for you.

Yeah, I'm doing a plus the judge. Yes. We're giving you 90 seconds for each division go. I am super bullish on the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming season. It hurt me in my heart because I have too many Eagles fans in my life.

And I really detested. But the way this division is shaking out the step backwards. Washington was poised to make a big jump forward after last season. And these injuries that we're seeing offensive line. And especially Thompson is just such a gut wrench.

Got punch bummer. I think it's a good punch. Wow. The giants are going to support. This is it for for Harbaugh.

This could be like a peak caravagus. Like leaning more that way. I think the caravagus. I love that. And Dallas is going to be better.

I have him in exactly nine wins because the question marks with whether or no...

really well translate.

But it's an Eagles division.

“I'm on Eagles over and all the rest of it.”

Okay. I guess I have to stick with Dallas for the division. Yeah. I do think the Eagles are going to be really good. Okay.

That was the NFC. We're in good pace 35 minutes. We're taking a break. We're going to come back. And we're going to do the NFC Norton.

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We're just staring at Farrah during the break. We're a little distracted. Yeah. Can't tell if that's a shadow or a possible, like, slay cold sore lower lip. Looks like a cold sore.

Makes me like her more. We took it. And Don Johnson has gone a rea for sure. Just for being next to. He gave her that cold sore.

Well, we took a smoke break for Don. And he gave her that cold sore. And he gave her that cold sore. And he gave her that cold sore. And he gave her that cold sore.