Bill Kristol: The Tough Guy Really, Really Means It This Time

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For all in vaccination. Yet, customers tested on Shopify.com.de. Hello and welcome to the Bower podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. It is Monday.

So we have Edgar at Large Bill Crystal. I want to wish a happy for 20 to those who celebrate it for, you know. May I want a reason? A curse for 20 to those who celebrate it because it's Hitler's birthday. Yeah.

Many of the rest of you don't notice it at all.

Well, what about you? Do you have a 420 tradition that you like to? Yeah. I'm sort of in the don't notice it at all. Kind of correct.

Don't notice it at all. Okay. Well, something to think about. All right. Well, I'll be celebrating tonight on the live stream.

I'm streaming again, taking your questions at 8 PM Eastern on YouTube or Substack. And, you know, to celebrate the day, I'll be having a Louis Louis THC beverage and we'll have a good time. So coming out with us eight o'clock tonight. On more responsible notes, tomorrow, the people of Virginia, which include you, Bill

Crystal, need to get out and vote on the redistricting referendum. I have a couple of thoughts on that, but you're a Virginia resident. Have you voted yet? Have you decided how to vote? I voted early.

Absolutely. Last week, they said that the polling place that, you know, given that it was a week before the election and turned out was high.

“And I think that's generally people of the sense that it turned out as comfortable to the”

governor election last November. I voted for the referendum and I wasn't that close to call for me. In 2020, we all voted for a constitutional amendment and passed by two to one in the state to have non-partisan sort of professional, you know, unbiased redistricting, you know. And, in fact, the work well here, and they came up with districts that were 65 Democrat,

and I could just kind of what the state is, right, I don't know, six so I don't know how to go for a Republican. They had continued his districts, they tried to keep communities together, all the kind of things the political scientists want you to do, they did here. But you also have to adapt to circumstances and if Texas and these other states are going

to go ahead and tell them one way you got to tilt the back of the other. And interestingly, in one last point, it's only for four years. So I mean, I give the draftors of this credit, it's not a permanent redistricting. It lasts until 2030, and it takes care of the problem of Trump attacks this summer. Sweet.

This is where I'm at on it. Some of the discourse around this, I feel like, makes me want to roll my eyes, particularly among the kind of high-minded, non-partisan types, and just like, yeah, it's unfair. The map that you're voting on, in Virginia tomorrow, is unfair, and that's the fucking point for it to be unfair, right?

“Like the only way to get back to a place where we have, you know, fair districts, and”

a democracy that is representative of everybody as for, you know, both sides to play hardball on this. Like there's a national anti-Germandering bill in the house, only Democrats are for it. There are no Republicans that are for that. There, you know, there were a couple of Republicans.

We should shout them out. And Indiana and a couple other states where they said, hey, we're not going to go along with this system. We're not going to go to the system anymore, and good on them. But in a bunch of other states, they tried to bring the system to keep down Trump and

power, to prevent Donald Trump from having accountability. And so good on Abigail Spamberger and Luis Lucas, and like you said, in 2030, it will revert as my understanding to the constitutional amendments system where they'll be a non-partisan redistricting. And, you know, God willing, that will be in a place in 2030 where that can happen in Virginia

and elsewhere. There are a bunch of red states that need that too. When they're a couple of wood states, Illinois, it's a dumb system. We should fix it. But like, it doesn't do any good to live in this reality.

And let one side try to rig the system while the other side doesn't. So go on vote for the Luis Lucas, Bill, tomorrow, everybody, if you're in Virginia. Let's do an update on the Iran War. So since we last got together with Ben Rhodes on Friday, things are looking a little dice here that may be the president had portrayed enough you'll be surprised by that.

President Trump, you know, trying to sell a deal that wasn't actually done.

And we've seen that movie a million times before.

“And I think that Ben and I pointed out on Friday, and like in the early moments of this,”

like there's a bunch of reasons why this deal might be unstable, not the least of which, you know, with the interests are of our partner in this war in Israel and their misaligned from the U.S. and who knows in Iran, if like the negotiators, actually, are in charge

reasons. You know, the reasons we skeptical those reasons were right since we last talked Iran was unhappy with the United States blockade. And with the ways in which Donald Trump was misrepresenting the deal that was coming together. So they fired on at least two, maybe three ships in the straight merchant ships, which

caused a bunch of other ships to turn around, like re-close the straight of Formus, despite Donald Trump's hang on Friday that the straight of Formus was open forever.

And that's Iran had agreed to keep it open forever, though, never use of a gun.

That last of less than 24 hours. The U.S. responded by seizing in Iran, he and ship was trying to bypass the U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman. I'm so he boarded and seized that ship Iran right now, saying that they don't trust Trump. We're getting kind of mixed reports on whether even participate in the talks.

“I think the most recent report is that they are going to participate in the talks.”

And Trump is escalating his threats. Once again, he posted this yesterday. If Iran doesn't accept a deal, the United States is going to knock out every single power plan, and every single bridge in Iran, no more Mr. Nights guy. So there you go.

No more Mr. Nights guy is the new position from Trump. Trump. I mean, Andrew has a good piece. And when he just asked this morning, I just forgot what this morning was. I think literary critics call this an unreliable narrator.

You know, it's like the narrator of the story is not telling the truth. And I mean, of course, there are times when you, you've shaped the truth and diplomacy, but that's not what Trump's doing. He's just making up things. I think Iran is wanted to make the point that you think over the weekend that they

have the ability to close the straight when they want to. And they want people to remember that going forward.

I assume they're going to ultimately agree to something.

And we're going to agree to something since we're at full-fledged desperation for a agreement mode. Trump is that, you know, they will basically open the straights with both sides.

“But I think Iran wants everyone to remember that if Israel attacks again or if we do something”

they don't like or if the UAE does something they don't like or if they just don't like, you know, they want to make a point in general, they're there and they can do it. I mean, that was sort of interesting. I thought that was what's behind probably what they were trying to do. Otherwise, they're getting a ton out of this deal.

Looks like they're getting total sanctions relief. I mean, I'm going to let you remember what people hawks on Iran, including me, screamed and yelled about Obama giving some sanction relief at a little bit of money that they had over here back, you know, Trump's like Trump being that many folds, and of course they're

not going to get, it looks like the nuclear material is going to sit over there allegedly

being specced by us. So, and in the turn it's out, there's a very good, it's very superport from our own defense intelligence agency, the report to Congress or at least the Congress has a copy of saying that Iran has a ton of ballistic missiles and drones laugh. We haven't degraded them as much as Trump has been claiming.

So, it's not a good outcome for the United States. Yeah, to your point on these Trump threats and how kind of hollow they are and it's such a, I guess it's not boy who cried wolf because the wolf is kind of like, boy, he's pretending to be the wolf. You know, for now we're against like, I'm going to end your civilization and then you

do nothing. So, like, you know, we're going to obliterate you than you do nothing and, you know, we're going to take out all the leadership and then you do nothing and now it's like no more Mr. Nice guy for real this time, it's like, okay, buddy, Dan Shapiro, the former ambassador

“at Israel, from Biden, it's like, I think a real kind of middle-the-road guy and all of”

this and no fan of the Iranian regime, I was interested in his take on a subject like can't he wrote, Trump spent all day posting untruthed social things that had not been agreed to trying to will them to be true by saying that. This is a crazy way to do diplomacy and something that's consequential and it has to be telling the Iranians that he's desperate for an off ramp, which only increases their leverage.

And that goes, I think, to what you're saying. I've been Iran is trying to continue to increase their leverage and they want more money out of this deal, like you're going to give us full sanctions really, okay, maybe we also want a toll on the straight or maybe we also want, you know, this that or the other thing. And I think that is what's happening in the moment and the argument for a deal

coming together is that both sides kind of want it to, right? Like both sides do want an off ramp, but just from the outside analysis perspective, it looks like our side wants it more. You know, it looks like our side wants it more. And Iranians obviously can send side as well. So, and you get us into a situation where you started this war of choice, making all of these grand for announcements, so that completes surrender, and

then you get into it five weeks in your kind of like begging for a face saving off ramp. It's pretty humiliating really. Seven weeks now, I think Trump said for it six weeks, but now it's running a little long. And he wants to get onto other things. I guess, maybe I can just mention here that I went a little thing from morning shots, just noticing what was in the last three

journal piece over the weekend that other people come up with it, too. That they purposely excluded Trump on the Friday that the airmen were shot down, the plan was shot down. And they were, you know, scrambling and devising and thankfully devising a successful

the White House, they managed to keep Trump out of the meeting, basically, occasionally

“they gave them updates because senior officials, it doesn't say who, but I assume he's”

a senior military officials, maybe a couple of his own, maybe the civilian ones are intelligent enough to know this, too. Thought that Trump's presence there would make it impossible to have reasonable and sound decision-making. Because he's so impatient and impetuous and reckless and so forth. And now elaborating a tiny bit of what the journal said, but that's the point of what they're saying. Kind of unbelievable.

Right. I can't even draw stories. Yeah. Two journal stories over the weekend about all the drama happening here. All right. You know, there's the one story where he's, you know, screaming at people and becoming very impatient, you know, during this period where there are, you know, two airmen in Iran.

It was interesting. The other interesting part of that story is the Trump isn't unfrozen caveman from the tabloid era of the 80s. Like thing, you keep being reminded about that. Like in this case, I guess he was just really remembering, you know, Carter and the hostage crisis and how bad that was for him politically. And so like, you know, they're like these, these, in the pop culture references and the history lessons of political lessons,

Trump is always like recalling how things were in the 1980s. So you have that kind of

drama by the scenes to Commander Chief basically kicked out, you know, because he's agitating people too much during this recovery. And then we have the other Wall Street Journal story on Hague Seth and Driscoll, feuding, Secretary of Army and Secretary of War in a pretty, a kind of a hot feud right now in the middle of this conflict. Driscoll, when out of his way when he's testifying on the Hill Thursday to praise

former Chief of Staff General George whom exited and ceremoniously fired, you know, you to a lot for this family to see him and they hugged him. There's no finer man. I think just going maybe quite well being sincere here or everything else I've heard about General George is very flattering. It just seems like a reasonably sane person by Trump administration standards, but I mean, to go out of your way to praise the person that you're sort of your

boss. I mean, your superior is a fair defense just fired two weeks before. It's pretty striking. So if there's just out and out war between Hague Seth and Driscoll, Driscoll's very close friend advance was put there by vans basically. When presumed success, a little bit on thin ice, Trump must be self-aware enough to know that this whole around thing was a mistake and that Hague Seth was one of those who sold him on it and pumped it up in those early days and weeks and I don't know.

“Is Trump self-aware enough to realize that you should want to get rid of Hague Seth?”

I think so. Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm wrong about it. Maybe I'm wrong about that. It depends who he's talking to, right? And it depends how many people are telling him that Hague Seth is a boob because he is very susceptible to peer pressure. You know, the other types of reporting that you're getting out of this is that Trump is really doing a kind of classic politician world leader mistake throughout all of history, which is like, oh my listening to Yesman.

And the one thing that has always been true about Trump is he kind of likes the drama.

He comes from reality TV show world where he wants the two sides refuting and wants to hear from both sides. And the most unhealthy way imaginable, he's at least getting different perspectives like through that process. And I just, it's hard to tell that's still happening. You know, and like there are some, so the one report of somebody was like, you would be shocked at how much time he's spending like watching the AI videos of himself on social. I mean, you know, so I just don't

know exactly if he's getting enough negative information about Hague Seth and Hague Seth has been the biggest yes man of all, it sounds like with a pressure to the war. So I did a maybe if things start going worse, that blows back on him. The other thing that he has seen is creating some hedge on his decision making is what's happening to the economy. It did get a big boost Friday when people thought the thing that this thing went the over were back down a little bit at the

sworn angle. He just pulled us up. All this stuff is very fluid, you know, I mean, the down

“S&P are only down a little bit. I think that there's a well as JBL call at the Madman theory of the”

economy. JBL great newsletter of the weekend, people should go read just about how the investors are just basically like any sign of normal C means we should buy. And so there's that, but oil prices are up another 5% this morning. They went down slightly below the the landman line that I like to say. We're the Billy Baumthorton's character says we want to keep it between 60 and 90. It went slightly down below 90 over the weekend. That's back up. So I think the economic impact of this is real.

We also have the UAE over the weekend asking us for a bailout. They want the Argentinian deal, you know, on the dollar swap. All that stuff is pretty shaky right now. And I think like if kind of tips a little bit worse than this, that will even create less leverage for us. And

they have on Trump the law. And this is just mathematics in ways, you know, psychology. I mean,

the longer this trade's closed, the more the less oil there is available to use and the less other products. And they're in our shortages in some countries of what's used to make plastic bags

“and a million other things drugs, I guess pharmaceuticals. So no, I think it's getting real. I mean,”

everyone said ahead of we discussed this once or twice. I mean, everyone said a forehand, you know, 10 day closure of the trade, not great, but you survive 30 days getting a little problematic. You get into 45 day range. And I guess we're getting pretty close to there. I can't remember how close, how quickly you're on close to straight, but it was a couple of weeks into the war. You're getting serious supply chain issues. And now that should pressure Trump to come to a deal this week or maybe

next, maybe pressures in vote of, does he tie one more spasmotic use of force, kind of go out with a, you know, Nixon kind of 72 Christmas bombing, showing he's a tough guy. I wouldn't put a past and then if he does that, you know, then of course you're into a situation where you can't, you don't know how Iran reacts, et cetera. So I don't know, I don't know. The one last spasm feels Trumpy to me. Yeah, I think there's something to it. A lot of people think everybody

“feels like they're a little bit better at predicting him than people are. You know, like there's”

some trends that you do see. You can kind of predict him pretty good in the medium term, but like what crazy stuff you'll do in the short term to get there. That's pretty struck when I had Alster Campbell on from the rest of politics last week. His co-host Rory, I was listening to their shows, kind of prep for it and Rory had gone on a vacation or he steward. And he was like, I just wanted to test myself where I didn't, I forget where he went. He went somewhere where he didn't have

good Wi-Fi. And it's like, for a week, he just didn't read the news. And then he came back and read the newspaper one day at a time to see if he could predict what was coming. He's like, I was kind of surprised by how bad I was at it. You know, I felt like it was better than I would be. And it is like Trump's, you can notice trends like in the short, he's just so erratic, right, that it is a little bit when the short term hard to say. But that said, I, the one more spasm kind of feels Trumpy.

“Yeah, and just one point on that, I've already said he's erratic, but it's erratic in the two”

extremes. So the one thing he doesn't do is really go down the middle of the road, you know, it's either I'm doubling down, then I'm backing off. Yes, right. I'm doing one, I'm doing one hour back to the other. Exactly. Right, everybody, I've told you my origin story with the old Ridge Wallet. They're going to come spots with the podcast. They're going to send me a sample wallet. I was a little concerned. It was too much for me. I thought that something that's sleek and powerful

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you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. I want to talk about a couple of the geopolitics impacts and kind of how things are changing already. There's also the last set of weeks. Literally as we're talking Trump posted this, which is a little bit of

a she-doth protest too much possibly. But here's a bleet this morning. Israel never talked

me into the war with Iran. The results of October 7th added to my life-long opinion that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon did. It's not a great sentence structure. But now I should have the fake news, then he goes down to this, just like the results in Venezuela, which the media doesn't like talking about. The results in Iran will be amazing. And if Iran's new leaders parenthesis, regime change, exclamation point, our smart Iran can have a great prosperous future.

Trump obviously feeling the heat on this question, following the news that BB was in the situation room, and feeling like he has to come up with a post-talk rationalization for why he wanted to do this, even if it wasn't for Israel's coaxing. And it's just like he was already president once. Like this. Like he said this life-long opinion. It's just, it's just really, it's hard to buy.

else in the situation you ask them what the goals and objectives are. He's still kind of on the

“Venezuela's way a leap. It's totally on the Venezuela leap. The degree to which I think historians”

will decide that Venezuela gave him this insane megalomaniacal sense of what he could do, and it's something with the US military could do. And he sort of forgot, you know, forgot the difference between Venezuela and Iran, which is kind of a big difference in some of the ways like Venezuela is right near us. And it's a very, reasonably small country.

And other big powers don't have a huge interest and Israel's not involved in a million

of the things, right? And even China, Russia will be like Venezuela, and we're going to do anything over here, whereas Iran is a whole different kettle of fish. But he desperately wants a world in which he can do Venezuela as every six months. And that's it. And no one asks to any questions after. And it's not real regime change, but it's not not nothing exactly because you kind of rid of a guy who's particularly disasable and it makes him beat his chest. It makes me think

he really wants, well, don't you think he will want to do Cuba and Greenland after this? I mean, this is a big question getting into our maximalist thing. Is this lesson from Iran? Got to stay away from that stuff back to, you know, back to ICE and domestic stuff, or is this lesson from Iran? Got to do Cuba or Greenland? Yeah, drug addict needs another hit. Yeah. You know, I need another hit or gambling addict that, you know, it's like I was on the hot

craps table. I was almost there and then the table went cold. Like now I got to go back to the ATM and pull out a couple hundred more dollars to get that high back. It's not something that

“ever happened to me. I can't relate to that at all. Yeah, no, I think that's what's coming. The”

China element of this is also kind of interesting. For the first time today, China said like publicly

like the straightens would be open and kind of engaged in this in a formal way. They were talking to their pal and the us about that. Who knows how that shakes out, like with the Gulf states that had tried to bribe us and now it seems like they're starting to reassess some of their investments in at least at least Saudi is and you're asking for a bailout now. They're looking back to China and wondering, you know, who they should make a deal with, maybe both sides, maybe not pick a side.

And then I saw this pull us a political pull, which is pretty remarkable, asking the citizens of these four countries are, you would maybe say as our four biggest allies, at least in the post were Bluetooth to era. I can't have a Germany France in the UK. I don't know if you throw Aussie in there, don't want to hurt anybody's feelings or Mexico, but like, you know, four pretty of our top allies asking them whether it's better to depend on China or the US under Donald

Trump. So this is basically about Trump and this is silly about the brother US. Canada 57 to 23 in

favor of China, Germany 40 to 24 in favor of China, France 34 to 25 in favor of China, Britain, 42 34 in favor of China. I just think that like there are some, may who knows about how long lasting, but some calculations are being made in the Gulf states and among our allies that feels like it's emboldening China. And ostensibly some in the administration were like China hawks and talking about how that was the real threat when Trump went in. Yeah, totally. And Pakistan

is certainly which is getting all the statitors. They're the middle man, the host of these talks. They're very close to China. So I mean, they're not doing this without consulting with China.

“They said that I think at times. And now China, I think, wants to say publicly, they want”

the straight reopen. They think it'll be reopened and they want to position themselves. We wait in when it was all kind of a bit of a chaos and we're the big guy and we we're not irrational and erratic like Trump. We wait in and we say we want it open and you know what, we later when it opens, trying is going to say, see, we can be helpful in these crises. You know, I want to listen to us. This episode is sponsored by Better Health. Financial stress can affect us more than we know.

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money doesn't mean they failed. Sometimes it's just about accessing the right kind of support. You know, I think I mentioned this last time we've been there. I was like in a mid period. We're trying to move selling one house buying another house, saw the house we like, we bought it, figuring the other house was going to sell, didn't sell for one week, didn't sell for two weeks. It's kind of like the Iran War and starts to drag out and you're looking at your bank account.

You're like, oh fuck. There was some tension in the household around this. It was definitely leading to mental health problems and stress. I think probably rather than making passive aggressive comments, seeking professional help would have benefited us at this time. I should have turned to my friends a better help. Better help therapists work according to a strict code of conduct. They're fully licensed in the U.S. of A. They did the initial matching work for

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“our FBI director is not just somebody that enjoys a few liveations. I think in the past we've had”

FBI directors at the end of the day, had a couple of bourbons to take the edge off. It's understandable, high pressure job. Doesn't seem to be what we're talking about with this guy. Before I read through, the reporting here from the Atlantic, we should say the cash betell is challenging it. It's going to challenge it in court. I'll be interested to see that discovery, if you go through

with it, account me on the side of believing the many, many sources the Atlantic has. But

acknowledge the cash is disputing it. And you would imagine that you had disputed it, given the details. Let me read from the piece. This is from Sarah Fitzpatrick. Several officials told me that Patel's drinking has been a recurring source of concern across the government. They said that he's known to drink to the point of obvious intoxication at the private club Ned's in Washington, DC. He's also known to drink to access at the Poodle Room in Las Vegas, where he frequently spends

“part of his weekends. Just the fact that the FBI director is spending his weekends at the Poodle”

Room in Las Vegas is itself a somewhat concerning, even if he wasn't drinking to access. Early in his tenure, meetings and briefings had to be rescheduled for later in the day as a result of his alcohol fuel nights. Six current or former officials and others familiar with Patel's schedule told me on multiple occasions in the past year. Members of his security detail had difficulty waking Patel because he was intoxicated. A request for, quote, "breaching equipment."

Normally used by squat and hostage rescue teams was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind-the-logged doors. They had to send a SWAT team in because dude hadn't taken a zbiotics and was so hungover that he was not listening to his phone vibrate. Like that isn't saying.

I mean, I enjoy a good time. Okay. I've never had to have producer Katie sending the cops to

make sure I was okay for our 9 a.m. taping for a moment. Always made it. Every time I've been here.

“That is wild. The FBI director needed the SWAT team to wake him up.”

Are you concerned? What's your level of concern about it? I mean, combined with refiring the Iranian experts, there's no being a charge and it's kind of similar. Yes, two concerns about how that we there are still responsible people in the bureau and maybe it is not including the director in meetings and we'll see how long that lasts. Well, except we know that he's actually getting the FBI to do things that it shouldn't be doing at full-en County in Georgia. I'll

swear now. Michigan with 2026 related stuff and obviously he's saying we're going to charge people criminally for the great conspiracy of 2020. He said that in his unsundant TV. I'm alive. On the one hand, they're so alarmed by him. All the people who talk to the Atlantic and on the other hand, it seems like he should be weaker than he is as director. I mean, I'm worried that he's they're going along. Their culture is to go along. Maybe there's some people who like having him

there. I don't know. Maybe I'm being unfair. Maybe they are curbing him more than I realize. I hope they are. This is something serious. People in the government, some of them will have quit and some should quit. Obviously if they can't do a good conscience, others really need to do what they can to mitigate the damage that's being done from Trump on down through Patel and Hexeth and others. I assume people are they're intelligent. They're acting this way and you know, within

the rounds of the law, but there are plenty of things you can do to make things less bad. Not tell them certain things and have some meetings that he's not, you know, whatever, invited to and so walk some things, fast walk some other things and so forth. But I'm pretty worried. The DOJ FBI DOD situation, yeah, totally irresponsible and reckless leaders, getting some push back, but also doing a lot. I mean, and they can do it a hand-handed and heavy-handed way. It's still

doing unbelievable amount of damage. Yeah. I mean, I'd love to hear from folks inside the bureau and how they're navigating all the things. I do think it's tough. And then I know for a fact that there are some responsible people in there, you know, still pretty of mutuals. But like it's really tough. And the one I'm kind of, I'm of two minds about it. Like in the one hand is somebody who's like pretty far down the enemies list, but on it somewhere, you know, on page 40 or whatever,

it's nice to have a drunkard trying to go after the enemies, right? He's been totally ineffective. Certainly does not seem like a coincidence that after this Atlantic story coming out, he was out there this weekend saying they're going to be a rest soon in the 2020 election for odd theft. It's like, okay, buddy. Like we'll see, good luck with that. On the other hand,

heightened terror risk on the homeland. You'd rather have somebody, like, actually who knows what they're

doing, running the FBI. Yeah, on the third hand, I mean, Todd Lanter placed family, who, and

plant just more, let's just say, I'd probably qualify for the job then bonding and stuff. And he's ruthlessly going up, going about DOJ's, you know, business of persecuting Trump's enemies and politicizing everything. And they just, the, the career person who was trying to do actually be responsible in Miami is now quit or been fired. It's, I don't quite know where to guess, who at least removed from the case, right? And they brought in Joe DeGenova, an 81 year old guy who's

kind of crazy, am I? Oh, my gosh, is that right? Is that who they brought it up with? Yes, Joe DeGenova is now the special assistant to Blanche for the Miami prosecution of, of, of, copper, of, former DNI, James Clapper. So on the one hand, it's like, idiocy and kind of comedy,

I'm Joe, Joe DeGenova. On the other hand, Blanche is pretty resolute and he kind of knows what he's

doing. And now, poor, they're going to go after Clapper and they're going to intimidate a lot of other people and burn up his legal bills. And Patel says he's going to sue the Aladdin for a defamation of a sense of coral with some of my liberal lawyer friends. Oh, that lawsuit's going nowhere. Well, is it going to have an intimidating effect on others? Is it going to force the Atlantic, it's spent a lot of money? And on, on those sources, the future going to worry

that if they talk to a reporter. And then the, the magazine that the reporter works for gets sued, that they might have to reveal the names, you know, as part of the defense. I mean, I just think the whole intimidation stuff that's going on with the FBI and DOJ remains very, obviously very bad. But I remember having the argument bond he was still around. Maybe he's better to have bondy there, you know, she's unpopular and doesn't seem terribly competent. On the other hand,

I don't know. You say it's tough. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's not the one hand on the other hand. Either way is bad. Either way is bad. Because because, because Trump is very bad. Yeah.

“He's a bad man. He always very bad. Maybe you should make that point. Maybe you should make that”

point so forth. Okay. So Joe DeGenova, who got brought in, you try your best to see everything these days, but sometimes things squeeze by you. I'm happy you mentioned it because I have some history with him. There's a little lore. Really? I did a detail. In the period between Biden, beating Trump and January 6th. January 6th hasn't happened yet. Right. And, you know, they are the stop-the-steal campaign is, you know, gaining momentum and, you know, etc. And Newsmax was like

the main home of this, because remember Fox was losing ratings ground in Newsmax. And I was like, I need to watch Newsmax. And so I sat in my bed, so it was during COVID, so didn't have to leave anyway, and watched 24 hours of Newsmax with sleep in the middle, so whatever, 16 hours of Newsmax. But from, I wanted to watch every hour of the day. And at four, I'm going to just read this. I pulled up the article, 434 PM, Joe DeGenova comes on. The host says that he was brought on to

talk about Obama Gate. That this week that everyone changed things up and talked about Trump's attempt to overturn the election. Stick with me because I wrote this whole thing, deadpan,

“because everything was so crazy was the only way to do it. But it goes like this. DeGenova”

says that the Durham report should come out to help give state legislators more incentive to stop Biden since he was involved in Obama Gate, so they start talking about that. And then he gets asked about Chris Krebs and DeGenova calls for the execution of Chris Krebs. Which then we clapped and published, so that was watching it, and then eventually DeGenova after that had to apologize and back off. So like that's the kind of mind you're dealing with.

Like somebody who was on the cable news show between the 2020 election and and Biden's inauguration, saying that the person in charge of Sissa, who was protecting our elections, needs to be executed for treason because they were involved in some imaginary scheme. So now he's still on the beat, 81 years old, five years later, now still trying to put somebody into jail for this imaginary crime, totally insane. Yeah, and so the lawyers, I know are all like he can't prosecute

the gaze and they don't have a case and it's not going to go anywhere, it's not going to work,

but I mean, you never know you get some jury, they're trying to judge your jury and Florida,

but probably won't work. But yeah, the legal defense, the cost and the intimidation factor,

“I think again there, they're just all in. It's not an accident. I forgot in your piece,”

I was next to these from November December 2020. Actually, yeah, I felt bad if you were watching newsmax with 16 hours. Well, that was good. It helped me. It helped cover because there was a period of time where you and you were on this and like a lot of other even anti-traumatic people, like you had to bring all to a warmest and whatever. And it was like, no, actually, if you watched the types of stuff that they're talking about, you could feel the bloodlust, like you could feel

it grow. And so it was kind of just even for my analysis. Like it was important to not watch the you know, sane, washed, watered down depictions, but to like watch what the audience was getting.

capital, right? It was much easier to predict anyway. And the Trump was really going to try to do.

And I think now again, let's just apply this to today. People need to be, you know,

“you have Michigan and Fulton County, Georgia, and you have to general and people need to be”

serious. Yeah, we need to worry about 2026 to 2028. Speaking of things we worried about, you had Ryan Goodman on the Sunday interview yesterday, just talking about this fight this happening on the hill over section 702 and the spy power. So the government has, you just for people who want the full sermon, they can go check that out, but you want to just give a little bit of a TLDR. 702 is the authority that allows our intelligence agencies to listen in on and read

communications among foreign nationals, but also from foreign nationals to American nationals, how Americans are protected for the amendment for some amendment. So it's complicated way in which they can't or can't look at what Americans have been doing. It was abused a little bit honestly, but not too much that they did their, and they'd be fair, the FBI kind of corrected it to abuse

it seems like within internal report. But Ryan and I were both basically, I don't want to speak

around, but I think it's true. National Security officials think this is an important part of our anti-terrorist efforts. And so we've mostly been defending it. Some civil libertarians don't like it. And as we were authorized every two years, it was passed after 9/11 and the Congress, to its credits, then you got to take a first look every two years. We're not going to give this a permanent kind of authority. So it's, you know, it's a tricky authority. And Ryan and I are

both against a clean reauthorization, as they say this should be now make, make them get a war to the Americans involved and put in a few other safeguards, perhaps. Some people on the hill

“have been leading this fight, but it's very much similar to, weirdly, I think, an ally against the”

Virginia thing we were talking about, which is, people say, well, you were for clean reauthorization in the past, why aren't you now? Well, because cash per tell us how did the FBI now? And whatever you think of Chris Wright and Jim Komi and all these other characters, I'm sure they weren't perfect God knows. They were not going to use the FBI, the way cash per tell, could try to use the FBI and use this authority, the same with Justice Department and say,

with the intelligence community and to tell us the gathered. So it's now bottled up on the hill at the House out of kind of meltdown Thursday night, Johnson couldn't get it through. The Freedom Caucus people actually did the right thing and voted against it, some of them, and people like Massey, the kind of libertarian types. We'll see what happens. It's got a 10-day extension. So it's actually a live issue this week on the hill. There's a totally obvious compromise

to be done if you care about natural security and want to add some reasonable civil liberties provisions. Trump right now is for, of course, the clean extensions, he doesn't want the civil liberties provisions. We'll see if they end up with a reasonable agreement or not. All right, one and move on to a couple

politics items for Illusion, I guess we should do the Schoedist reports first. Alito and Thomas,

there's some reporting from Jan Crawford over at CBS is very well-sourced in the kind of conservative side of the court, not out, and saying that neither of them want to retire. This has been kind of the assumption about Thomas because he's not so far away from being the longest ever serving member of the Supreme Court, and I think that he wants that distinction, because when I'm sure that the folks at Holy Cross will be excited to honor him for the fact that he achieves that the

three most famous Holy Cross grads, John Favreau, Bill Simmons, and Clarence Thomas. But people have been thinking that Alito is going to do it because he wanted to make sure that he could be replaced by a fellow hack, and there's concerns of Democrats, like the Senate Actions, that who knows what might happen. But the Crawford report is saying that he's going to stay. Lauren Egan is a good news letter for us last night talking about how the Democrats aren't really buying this and are still really

preparing for a big Supreme Court showdown this year. Who knows, maybe we'll come next year. It's one of your thoughts on that, and it's pretty interesting again, kind of somewhat of the redistricting question. I think that the Democrats, if Alito waits to after the midterms and the Democrats take the Senate, you know, for all of people's complaints about Chuck Schumer, I'd have a happy to vague on my face when I'm wrong about this. I think the Democratic senators are going to, you know,

create a new Merrick Garland rule. Say, sorry, we'll wait to the next election. Like not, not bringing up a new justice for nomination, so you guys did, and we'll hold it as long as we

“need to hold it, and we'll see what happens to the 2020 election. I think that's what that would”

happen. So it'd be pretty significant if Alito decides to stay on past this midterm. Yeah, it's much more fraught now that it looks like Democrats could either win the Senate or get very close, and then he just said he'd won't defection perhaps to stop someone. No. So I think it's at Jan Garford's an excellent reporter. I've known it a long time. I'm sure she's accurately reporting what Alito and Thomas are saying to people what I think Laura has captured

well, though, is that they've been saying it out just to, you know, keep there, whatever, not look like a lame doc. I guess you could call it that or just to look like they're making their own decision, but they could change their mind and also Trump could pressure them. I mean, this is not,

I don't know, Alito may sort of think I'd like to stay. I'm having a good time, you know,

whipping out people's rights and so forth, but what if Trump calls him? So that's you got to go Sam. Well, the other thing is that they could, you know, look at what happens in the midterms, and there could be the lame doc period. And this is what they did. Yes, I like to say you look at, let's say the Democrats take the Senate in November. This shows the stakes. Totally. Really, the whole election, as far as I'm concerned about the midterms is is Iowa, Texas, Ohio,

maybe Kansas, maybe Nebraska, maybe Montana, maybe Florida, whatever. These red states with Democrats think it's the whole ballgame is I can the Democrats get to 51. In the Senate, for the spring court reason, but for others for other denominations for replacing Todd Blanche, after his,

you know, if he's no longer the acting AG, if they try to keep him in his acting to next year,

who knows other confirmations? Like that's the ballgame. And so if the Democrats succeed in winning in enough of those red states to those red states to get to 51, then it's like, okay, well, could the lead over a tire really click in November and have Jonathan, jam at three before the

“new Senate sets? I mean, it would be tight, but it's possible, I think. That would be tough, I think.”

Or certainly in September, if it does become obvious that they really is a massive wave, and they have you know, better than 50, 50 chance of losing the Senate. Yeah, I agree. It's not the if the lead of does retire in the other hand, we have a huge confirmation fight, presumably the Republicans are in good shape, and if I be Trump will nominate a right wing justice, everyone I know who's plugged into that world at all, whether on the opposition side, or a few people who talk to people who are

on the, you know, Republican side, think that this is not going to be a kind of respectable, ish Amy Cuddy. I think we're talking right all the way, one of those judge home, could type, sound and sexist, or island cannon, or what's his name, the guy they put on the court, bovey, or blanch himself, or god knows what, right? Trump wants loyalists on this court, so if he has chance to put people on. So that's become a huge fight, even they can't stop that

person, the politics of that fight are very important. Is it highlights how important the Senate is, right? And no one's guaranteeing, even if people don't choose to retire, people get sick and so forth. So that could be another opening, and there are other district court and circuit court openings in 2728, which means Democrats have to do a better job than they're done in the past, explaining why the court should be important to voters who might want to vote

Democratic. Republicans have done a very good job on the courts as a motivating issue for their voters. Now, maybe post-row, post-dob's, that's different. It's easier for the Democrats, and I know Democrats live on reports on this, or who are sort of gining up on this, but the Republicans have had an advantage that you think on the politics of court fights.

“I think that's changing though, but I think that they have for the last generation, but I think”

that's changing. So important for the Democrats, politically, to identify messages that allow them to see in red states, so I like to point out good examples that when I can, John Ossoff had a big speech in Georgia over the weekend, I don't apply for folks, and I really, I keep coming back to this, the Kamala conundrum question, which is, in part, was not her fault, but I think that she got into the sour spot where like moderate voters

you know, thought that she was a California progressive, and some progressive voters, like who cared a lot about Gaza, thought she was a corporate chill, and independent voters didn't really trust her. The challenge is, how do you come up with a message and a messenger where progressive voters look at them? We're like, I don't know, that guy works enough. I'll be excited for that person, and the moderate and independent voters look at them and say,

okay, like this person could appeal. John Ossoff has demonstrated interesting model for that potentially in Georgia, and I thought it was interesting to hear how he was talking about the Iran War and the corruption issues and the economy at his campaign stop a really canlet's listen to that. While he and his family rake in billions from foreign princes, hit all time highs this year, this year, ground beefs up 20% since Trump took office,

“coffee 40%. Health premiums through the roof, and remember, while you pay more for everything,”

the first family's wealth is growing by billions of dollars. Because they're crooks, and everybody knows it. I mean, that feels right. It's a way to speak to the anti-Trump side of this and do a lot of

never-tomper friendly messaging, but also tie it in the point you've made over and over and

tentish in your issues and in your policies, but vehemently against Trump, and especially in

the corruption is the sweet spot here, right, and the kleptocracy. And it's generally the Hungarian election, that's what Magyar, who is too right, winged for a lot of lefties and not lefties, even just normal progressives, honestly, in Hungary, but he was so strong and he has been in the weeks and see one, too. And I'm going to rip off this rip out the corruption, the kleptocracy, the whole system, it's all crooks. That line is excellent to Vassos, and suddenly I have a

way, I guess maybe others who said it for some other way. And he's sort of a mob, Vassos, not actually a natural, you know, stem-winder type, I wouldn't say, you know, and so it's impressive to see him do it. I mean, no, I very much think that, and tying the kleptocracy and corruption of Trump and his family and the oligarchs, pairing that with the bad economic facts facing the middle class. I mean, it seems to be the way to go. Absolutely. All right, I want to close with JD and the Pope.

You've commented on social media, something about the, hopefully, opposed to that you like,

“I'd like to, you self-identify as elderly, because Leo posted this. Let us remember that the”

elderly first and foremost need to be listened to, because they preserve the wisdom of a people. It's nice. I love humility and you're thinking that I should be listening to you more, based on the Pope's advice, and I'll take that note. JD doesn't really share that humility about listening to the wisdom of other people. He likes to listen to the wisdom of himself. And I just want to play one more time, JD talking about this at his event with Eric

at Kirklight last week. When the Pope says that God has never on the side of those who will

the sword, there is the thousand-year, more than a thousand-year tradition of just war theory. Okay? Now, we can, of course, have this agreement about whether this or that conflict is just, but I think that it's important. In the same way that it's important for the Vice President of United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy, I think it's very,

“very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology. And I think that”

one of these issues here, is that there has been, again, hey, random dude screaming, I told you I could respond to your point. I just want to respond to this question first. So there you go. Yeah, they aren't explaining, some advanced explaining there. I just, I love that he's been condescending to the Pope that it's the Pope that she needs to be careful with his rhetoric. As you ever talked about Donald Trump needed me careful with his rhetoric now. It's just the Pope.

JD Vance becomes a Catholic two minutes ago. And he's like, you know what, the Pope needs to be a little bit more cautious when with how he talks about the Jelts war theory. Okay, do you know about the Jelts war theory because we just started a war choice and started bombing a girl's school and that might be Jelts war. So shout-up, Pope. And then he tells the person the kid asking the question and you shut up too. And it's like JD Vance and Zalensky, you shut up too.

He just likes telling people to shut up. Trump should nonetheless be removed from office. I guess we'll have to put up with JD in 2027. 2026 is less crazy. And we'll less likely to get us into some total reckless insane debacle than Trump. But Vance is really bad too. I've got to say, what a what a pair. Trump advanced. Good. Really bad. Okay. I love that you're you're just, you're just going to take the entire impeachment ground. You're there. You're just like,

fuck, like JD Vance is awful and Trump is so bad that we need to be lectured and patronized to for two years and exchange for getting rid of Trump. I like that. That is what you would call the wisdom of the elderly. Yes, thank you. Well, you know, the reason I did that cute little

if I could say thing on the expert season where I always said Tim calls you elderly every week.

So that's just, you're just right. I'm embracing, I'm embracing my inner elderly. I told you all the rules of use by our exchanges where you pretend to feel you remember this for 48 years ago before everyone else involved was born. And then of course, I play a lot. I remember remembering that when I was in grad school, Nixon was, you know, a peach forward to get something. So I embraced my inner elderly and I said, I'm glad the pope respects it. And as he's the boy, work pope, and he's

“fine. I thought he was thinking to be frankly. He was only watching us. He watched this, right?”

He's got some extra time there. And you know, he thinks that, you know, Tim is doing a little little unfair to Bill sometimes. I think he's a committed watcher. That's my understanding from reports inside the Vatican. All right. That's Bill Crystal. We'll be back tomorrow. On Tuesday's got the next level. So if you just need to be politics, junkie, you can tune into the next level tomorrow. I'm going to go a little bit off news on this podcast, bringing one of my buddy's got

a new book out. So I'm looking forward to that. And I'm relive streaming tonight before the nuggets game made a clock in the east. Come hang out with me. I'll take your questions. I've got a lot of fun stuff to talk about. We'll see Bill Crystal next Monday. See you all tomorrow, peace. Hey, cause I got him. The board podcast is brought to you. Thanks to the work of lead producer

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