Stocks in Pre-Crisis Mode, Multiple Compression, the Citrini Crash, Halo Goes Viral

Yeah, we're back. All right, it's been a minute. I had been crossing on in Michael's place last week. So it feels like it's been a while. I don't know, let's feel it like that for you.

“I think I did four podcasts today, so now.”

It's a lot to talk about. Hey guys, welcome to an all new edition of what are your thoughts. First time listeners, my name is downtown Josh Brown,

and with me as always, my co-host, Mr. Michael Batnik.

Michael, say hello. Hello. All right. We have a live chat that's going on on YouTube for those of you who are normally accustomed to listening to us.

Everyone's at a while pop onto the live. We take this at 5 p.m. Eastern. I want to say hello to some folks. Chris Hayes is here. Chris hit the like button eight times, he says.

Appreciate that, sir. Media Mindy said, y'all going to talk about Paramount and Netflix with the new bid for Warner Brothers. Two business. No, no, no.

That's like number nine on the list of things that we would do today. Normally, Mindy, we would love to. It's just too much happening.

“Put people's watch, the Jessica and Nick Colis Show.”

Here on the compound yesterday. Appreciate you, sir. They are so smart. I love, I love Nick and Jessica. Well, sir, Jerry Sear, John Carlow,

charisma, Spigget is back. George, he's in the house. All the usual pounders are with us. And some new names and faces. We appreciate you guys.

I want to mention our sponsor tonight's show is brought to you by fidelity investments.

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that can meet you in the moment. Right, Michael? That's all right, Josh. With the all new fidelity trader plus platform, your charts and preferences show up consistently,

sink to cross all your devices. So you can act fast whenever and wherever you're trading. You can save an order on your desktop at home. Get a mobile alert when you're at work and complete the trade in the portfolio without starting over and with the downloadable fidelity trader plus

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views, opinions, product services and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by fidelity investments. Fidelity broker services LLC member and YSC SI PC. Thank you, fidelity. Today's show is sponsored by Janice Henderson Investors,

where we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in-depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision.

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“is because I really think that this is the key to the market this year.”

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I want to start with the market. I want to start with the market. Let's play this video real quick. Taxi drivers and accountants both got automated. One group got poorer, the other got richer.

“And the reason why is probably the most important idea for understanding what AI is about to do to your job.”

Before Uber, London cabby spent years memorizing 25,000 streets. It's called the knowledge that expertise was the entire job. You were paying for what they knew. Then GPS automated the expert part. The hard part, the thing that took years to learn.

Suddenly anyone with a car in a phone could do the job. Employment and ride services went up 250% wages. Because the hard part was gone. Anyone could do what was left. Now look at accountants.

Computers automated the routine part. The data entry, the bookkeeping. The repetitive calculations. The easy part. What was left.

That required more expertise not least. So wages went up. The job got more specialized and more valuable. Same story. Technology automated part of a job completely opposite outcomes.

The differences with the technology took the hard parts or the easy parts. If the technology takes the hard parts, the things that took years to learn. The expertise that made you worth paying for. You're heading towards more competition and lower wages. The barrier to entry just disappeared.

If the technology takes the easy parts. The routine, the repetitive. The stuff that you didn't need much training for. You're heading towards more specialization and higher wages. Because now you spend all your time on the work that actually requires you.

“This is the question you need to be asking right now.”

Not will I take my job. There's the wrong question. The right question is. Is AI taking the hard parts or the easy parts. Think about what you did last week.

The tasks that AI could already handle. With those the tasks that took you years to learn. Or where they're the parts. They could have taught. You could have taught one year on day one.

Because. All right. That's a, I mean, that's a really great point. That juxtaposition between taxi drivers. And a countens technology with taxis took the hard part.

The drivers knew where everything was. And then once the machines did. There was nothing for them to do. Or they just like on the steering wheel. The thing with the countens though.

It's the opposite. All the road annoying task stuff. The calculations. A machine could do that. That's not the thing that makes an account an account.

“The thing that makes the account and the account is that specialized.”

Knowledge and that ability to communicate. Options with with with customers and and and lifelong clients. So and that's why accounts get paid more.

But taxi drivers get paid less or nothing since the advent of Uber.

And I think it's a really. I think it's a really important. Way of understanding. What's about to happen? You don't seem convinced.

I'm not. Is that because she's from middle earth. Talks like a habit. What is the reason? Where is that accent from?

We need to. That's all. Or maybe in the island. We need to find out what's going on. That was classic.

Oh, you know what? That could have been South Africa. All right. Well, I thought she.

“I thought she made a really important distinction between.”

Does the AI do the hard part of the easy part.

Now there's people in the chat saying what if it does both.

I don't know what to tell you. Move to New Zealand. Ask her. All right. All right.

Hard to believe. Hard to believe that the cumulative advanced decline line for New York Stock Exchange listed stocks hit a new all-time high the other day. Nobody would know this. Like what?

Is the halo stocks? That's it. Well, what else do you want to tell you? It's. It's anything but software and information technology.

All right. So this makes me feel a little bit better about the state of affairs. Next chart, please. Look at chart, goat, matt, divinous thing. Expensive stocks are on the performing.

Matt is looking at median price of sales based on 10, 10 equally weighted buckets of stocks. And it's very clear. This picture picture is a very clear story. The stocks are getting smoked. The stocks are expensive to begin with.

So how do you not look at this and say it's just mean reversion. And it's just like the counter trend to answer to correcting what's gone on for the last three years. Sort of how it seems to me. Right? Yeah.

Like it's it's like all right. We had this one group of stocks. They were expensive at the start. They got even more expensive. And that ran its course.

And now there's concern about their future earnings cash flows. Let's sell those and buy these cheap ones. And now the cheap ones are getting expensive. I did a thing on the air today at CNBC about the oil stocks. The huge re-wading in those multiples.

People don't even understand. Like you got stocks now. Oxy is trading 32 times a trend 12 month earnings. Yeah, that makes sense. Exxon mobile's gone from 14 to 22.

Chevron has gone from, I think, 16 to 28. What's the expected earnings growth for this company? It's got to be 5%. Really? No.

No. Most cases, not even close. Well, why would it be WTI crew? It's like 60. It's got nowhere.

Is this, this is, this is the photo of the mining looks like. It's a funding by valuations. Like does this make sense? Oh, you're paying for the next 24 years worth of, like give me a break. Nobody cares.

I'm sorry if I'm doing that.

“But I'm just saying like that's, that's what it looks like.”

All right. Let's move out the better news. Yeah. Pre-crisis parallels. All right.

We did a whole thing with, with Diamond, but I did want to take one more quote of his John, give me this screen grab. This is Bloomberg. Diamond sees pre-crisis parallels as why those do dumb things. So now we come to the private equity private credit portion of this, which is its own story.

Somewhat connected to the software across. This is Jamie. Unfortunately, we did see this in 05, 06 and 07 almost the same thing. The rising tide was lifting wallboats. Everyone was making a lot of money.

I see a couple of people doing some dumb things. They're just doing dumb things to create NII. That's not interesting come. And then they do all this like 2008 stuff. They try color.

Did he name names? Yeah. When auto lender try color holdings and car parts supplier first brands group. Imploded last year. He said seeing one cockroach meant more would likely crop up.

And then he said, quote, there's always a surprise in a credit cycle.

This time around it might be software because of AI. Hold that thought. Lloyd blank fine off the top rope. Coming in to trash whoever's running Goldman Sachs. And whoever's running all of these private credit firms.

Look at this guy. Blank fine has a book coming out of March third.

“That's why he's talking just in case you were wondering.”

Oh yeah, whatever happened to that guy. What happened was he crushed it and he sort of retired. And now he's in that mode where, hey, I got something to say. So here's what he said. Is a crisis brewing in private credit?

Quote, the people who run these firms have had great lives and made a lot of money. These firms are very successful, very lucrative. Not content with the market that they have. And as big companies they have, they want to make them bigger. How are they making them bigger by finding new outlets of capital?

What are they going to retail? Consumers 401k's insurance companies. If something blows up and big institutional investors lose money.

Not really.

If a bunch of individuals start losing their 401k plans and their money.

Does the public sector care? Does the government care? Yes, a lot.

“I think it's crazy to put those assets there.”

And I think it's crazy from their point of view. They have nice lives. They make a fortune. Their companies are huge. They already own their yachts.

And whatever it is they want. Why are you going into this dangerous territory just to make your business a little bit bigger? When that represents such a big potential problem. All right, team blanks on this. I mean, I wish you'd just sort of answer the question.

Seriously. The answer. No, it's not. He didn't answer. It's a crisis brewing and private credit.

Yeah.

He answered a different question.

Well, the answer to the question. Well, I think that's where he sees as the question. I think he speaks for all of us. And I think this is actually a good thing. That this has happened before and not after.

These things are in 401(k)s.

“He said in a financial crisis a trader would say, I think an investment is worth x.”

And I'd say go out and sell it and they couldn't. These private credit investments are illiquid. So how do they find out what the true value is? We don't know what something's worth for sure. Unless you try to sell it and somebody buys it.

I think something will occur. And we'll say, I can't believe there's gambling in the casino. I can't believe my predecessors let this happen. And then I'll have to get fixed and it will be more conservative than it had. And he's almost like, what is he lobbying to come back and run an investment bank?

He's right. He's probably he's writing a book. So the story with private credit is that in the spring fall, these these BDCs and these stocks start to get lower. Start to go lower as interest rates are coming down. And these are floating rate loans.

So the investors were going to earn less interest income. And therefore all things equal, these were less relatively less attractive than they were. In 2022, when interest rates were killing bonds. And these things were floating high or no duration. Like it was it was cool buy out.

It was a perfect storm for greatness.

So first it was the it was the rates coming down that said investors.

And you know what I don't think we'd like these things anymore. And then it was a tri-color and first brand. So try that we were syndicated loans. This isn't even private credit things. And then there's like, yeah, maybe these are more those weren't poorly under it.

Those were frauds frauds. Again, not private credit frauds, just frauds. And so I was able to hand wave a lot of that away. I wasn't able to hand wave away was the the title wave of money coming into the space. Like they're camping this many good loans available.

They're just camping. So it's sloppy underwriting, which we're going to find out about and give it, I don't know, give it a couple of months. Now, and the the the thing that for me, just as like, makes us really hard is the software part of it.

So be credit for example. 26% of the book is in software loans. Of middle markets and that doesn't mean they were bad loans or anything. Anyone did anything wrong. On the world change.

There's a private illiquid investment and the world change. So if the if the equity and you had like these could have been made a proper loan to values. And there's plenty of equity cushion or there was. I guess what the publicly traded stocks down 60%.

“What do you think the privately traded businesses are worth as a percentage of what they were worth?”

Way less, okay. Yeah. So what so I don't know what the portfolio is look like. Who the hell knows is but investors aren't waiting. These names are getting murdered blue owls and a 60% drawdown.

The publicly listed BDC is getting murdered. And again, the. Lesson lesson. The worst part of it is Josh. We haven't even seen the cycle turn.

There's no distress. Like everything is fine. Again, it's multiple compression but in a different arena. It's the same concept. Yeah.

We know these companies are worth less. None of them have. There's no. Literally no problems. None of them are filing chapter seven chapter eleven.

It's more scary. I know that but it's the same concept. We're just we're just not willing to agree that they're worth what they were last year. Put it in that though because we're going to revisit that at the end. You know, it's a.

Tenure Treasury rate meal data quote in the last couple of weeks. We have seen stronger than expected employment and firm core PCE inflation. We might even get a politically client fed chair. There's also quite a bit of enthusiasm out there as financial market conditions have eased. And the tax refund season expected to be stronger.

Well, the last year is in full swing. Despite all this. Tenure yields have actually been sliding. I'm not sure what the right level of the tenure should be. But there's every reason for longer term yields to be rising right now.

It's notable that they haven't been a tenure hit 4% today. Do we need to read more into this? I don't know. This is such a weird market dude. If you hear like the way that we're talking.

Just our tone of what we're saying. You would just assume the markets at a 15, 20% drawdown. And we're writing your all-time highs now. I don't know if that makes me more or less confident.

Like it feels like everybody sees a crisis about to unfold.

But it hasn't started yet. Okay. So I'd love that you said that because going into 2023 and 2022 during the rate hiking cycle. Everybody had the ability to brace for impact. Everybody got religion and did what they had to do with their balance.

And this other that and they brace for an impact that didn't come. Now I'm not saying that because it didn't happen the last time I won't happen this time.

“But I think what's a trony did in service to society for everybody focusing.”

Like everybody is brace for impact. And I think that changes the nature of risk. Now I'm not saying that we're going to eliminate it of course. But I like that everybody's sort of feeling anxious about the future. That's not a bad take.

Like in other words, he told everybody. He told everybody like put your pads on. And if enough people do that. Some of the recklessness that maybe we were worried about last year is not going to manifest itself. Don't.

All right. Let's talk about an area of the halo trade that's not working. Mm. You as pending home sales. Holy.

Michael Cliff. Okay.

That's part of that 10 year though, hitting 4 falling to 4%.

Like people are not bullish on the economy right now. Let's look at pending home sales. The. Yeah. Not great.

Like this. This is a very seasonal chart. Like it goes for the less three years. The lines all move together. And the red line for 2026.

Wow. It's diverging big enough.

“We're looking at at full week rolling average of weeky pending sales.”

And it does not look like the others. And then the role four week rolling average on the bottom chart of medium days in the market. Like this is bad dude. Houses are just not selling. So pull cooperation reported.

The stock is getting murdered. So swimming pool builds are down 50%. I believe this is the pandemic. Now obviously, a lot of this is pull. But still in 2025, we estimate that just under 60,000 new pools were built in the U.S.

A mid single digit decline.

This is about half of what we saw at the height of the pandemic. And 40% lower than 2022. Holy shit. One other. Floor and decor.

Murdered. Murdered. Oh. What is this like carpets and would. I'm guessing it's like floor and probably something.

Just destroyed. Chat. Would you have guessed. You would see floor and decor and pool. In drawdowns of this size.

Is that anecdotally what you. I think I would of. I feel like everybody shot their shot from 2020 till 2024 25ish. And then like if you were going to do something. You're going to redo your house or dig a pool.

Like you already did that. But we were. And now it's a retrench. We were bullish on rates coming down and the housing market. Well, they have to come down.

But they have come down. The 30 years below six percent. Like rocket. Like these stocks are not working. All right.

People are not willing to. The sellers have to bring their price down. Yeah, we know. But they're not going to. It's a buyers market where nobody's buying or nobody's selling.

It's not good. I grabbed this. I wanted to share with you. Home Depot reported this morning. Adjusting earnings 272 versus consensus 253.

Topping estimates despite your of your pressure. Revenue actually beat. Same store sales were up 0.4% in the US. 0.3% which reversed prior declines. And it beat the forecast.

Which were for a drop. So somehow. And lows is tomorrow. Yeah, and the stocks still could have barely bounced. It closed on the lows of the day.

Oh, no, lows is tomorrow before the open. So we'll see any coverage there. One more thing. Here's a ski from Sean Bradrick. A ski.

A blue sky tweet. I don't know. What do we call them? I don't call them skates. All right.

Google search. This is a chart of Google searches for quote. Can't sell house. Absolutely sky rockets the highest level in over a decade. Isn't this a great chart?

What is going on? You can't sell your house because it's not worth what you think it is.

“Like, do you need somebody to hit you over the head with a baseball bat?”

You can't sell it because the price is wrong. Isn't that it? It's more than that. That's it. If you were able to afford a house, you probably already bought a house.

Well, I think that's the same thing as the put in the pool. We do the floor. I agree with you. I totally agree with you. Right.

The people that wanted to did it. All right. Let's do make the case. Then you're going to do a mystery chart. And then we're going to let everybody out of here.

You call yourself a contrarian. You son of a bitch. Well, let's let's see. Chart on. Now.

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