NTK: How Much Worse Can Trump’s Iran War Get? Don’t Ask.

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Thank you, and enjoy the show. Well, and 28, 22, 23.

“This is Deep State Radio, coming to you direct from our super secret studio in the third”

subbasement of the Ministry of Snark in Washington, DC, and from other, undisclosed locations across America and around the world. Hello and welcome to Need to Know, in which we sit down with a newsmaker every week. I'm David Rothko, if you're host this week, I am pleased to say that our newsmaker, news interpreter, friend, is Alon Pinkis, noted Israeli diplomat advisor to Israeli governments

and now well-known commentator of tribute to the new public and the many other publications here and around the world who is coming to us today not incidentally from Tel Aviv. How are you doing a lot? I'm fine, David. Thank you for having me.

“As always, I'm happy to be on your podcast, whatever iteration or version.”

I do need to propose your introduction. I do need to give you a fair warning that since I'm right in central Tel Aviv, there could be a siren any given moment. If that occurs, I say this to you and to Riley the producer, I will not disconnect. I will just move 10 seconds with the iPad to a secure location, quote unquote, which is

the bedroom and we will continue there. But I'm doing fine even though I have to say, I'm not usually a stressful person and I don't, but I look at people, I'm talking to people, I see people on the streets. It's beginning to take a toll. It's three weeks of incest and sirens in coming missiles.

Well, that's one of the things I wanted to talk to about, normally we talk about geopolitics, how much do you admire BB net and yeah, how much I admire Donald Trump.

“But we'll get to that, because I think our listeners already know just how much we”

admire. But I'm interested Trump thought he could do this in and out. He talked about a so-called Venezuelan model, although he neglects to note that there is Venezuela model, he went in, he got a guy, he left, he's stealing some oil, nothing else has happened.

But I think he just sort of thought, well, hit and run, this will be like last year. And that's clearly not the case. And frankly, despite the fact that every day he says, well, this will be over soon.

At first of all, Netanyahu isn't saying that, and secondly, all the institutional body language

of the United States right now, sending in more troops, moving in more weapons talking about going after Clark Island talking about maybe seizing bits of land on the far side of the straight-up or moves, all of that suggests that this could go on for quite some time. And you know, two and a half weeks ago, I saw polls in which it said 80% of the Israeli public supports this.

Is that the case still? Yeah, it probably is, I saw a poll yesterday, let's assume it was conducted in the last week. I don't know the exact date from the INSS, the Institute for National Security Studies here in Tel Aviv that showed that 78% of Israelis support the war.

Now, this has three reasons, or mitigating circumstances, all of which I respect, but all of which are extraordinarily malleable, I mean, they could change pretty soon.

The first is that most Israelis, even though they protest against Netanyahu and they

they bought into his spurious narrative that Iran is an imminent existential threat.

“Now this is not to say that Iran did not pose a threat, or will not pose a threat.”

All it means is that, Mr. Netanyahu, condition them, brainwashed, if you will, David, to think that this is imminent, that this is around the corner, that this is ominous, that this is the only game in town, and that this, in effect, is 1938 all over again. There's a Hitler living in Tehran, and I Benjamin Netanyahu, I'm your Winston Churchill. People bought into that, because we're talking about 15 years, probably more, but 15 years

in which he's been prime minister with the exception of year and a half in 2021-22. So 15 years, he's been hammering this, that this is, this is the be-all in end-all, that this is existential, that this is civilisation, that's one reason.

The second reason is that despite what I said a moment ago about the toll that incoming

“missiles and thousands of sirens and what you're hearing now is an ambulance, it's not”

a siren, and, and the, the actual damage done to Israel and both fatalities and material damage has been, I don't want to say minimal, but has been very limited, meaning buildings did not collapse, dozens were not killed, military installations were not hit, infrastructure was only hit on the margins, so people feel, well, you know, it's, it's livable, I mean, yeah, the sirens are awful and, and they, you know, they disrupt life, but we could live

with this.

The third reason is that people, I'm talking about Israel, not as a universal observation

about people, they love what they see from the military, look at what the air force is doing, look at the intelligence, look at the assassinations, oh wow, this is, this is, you know, this is Marvel material, this is, you know, this is super hero, okay, this of course is all nonsense, because 20 days into this war, Iran still retains 450 kilos supposedly, 450 kilos of enriched uranium, they still have the missile capability, in fact last night

on Thursday night, Mr. Netanyahu was talking to the nation speaking to the nation, obviously without a Q&A, but he was talking preaching to the nation and said that he said back that Israel said back Iran nuclear program and missile ballistic missile program by dozens of years. Number one, he said that in June of 2025, number two, more importantly and permanently,

pertinently, as he said this David, there were three sirens in Tel Aviv, consecutive sirens, so, and so, you know, you take these three factors, the fact that people actually consume interpret, perceive Iran to be an existential threat, we can argue whether that's true or not, there's a case to be made that it is, but there's also a case to be made that it isn't, and no one is making that case.

Number two, that the damage has been limited, the number three that they're so proud of what the idea is doing, but one last remark about this. If you take the nuclear program, which Donald Trump claimed was obliterate in June of 2025, you take the ballistic missile capabilities, which Mr. Netanyahu in June 2000 and twice and again last night out Thursday night, boasted has been set back by decades, and you

take regime change, which is something that Mr. Netanyahu has steadily, but, but, you know,

“inexorably moved away from what did this war achieve?”

I'm talking from Netanyahu point of view, not at your point of view, I leave that to you. And so, I think that this 78-80% support is going to, at some point, decrease significantly. By the way, you look at the political polls. Again, I'm not a big believer in political polls during a war, because, you know, people rally on the flag and then they feel patriotic, and they think that any former criticism

makes them somewhat unpatriotic or uncommitted. Okay, but you do look at the two or three polls that I've seen in the last 10 days. Netanyahu did not get even a 1% bump in the polls, in terms of his ability to win seats in Parliament, a form and form of government, and all our viewers probably know that Israel is set to have any election sometime in 2026 this year.

Well, you know, the question, I guess, listening to that is, you know, what's going to do

Because not only is everything unfolded as you have seen, but, you know, the FT today referred

“to what has happened is the biggest disruption of global energy flows through history.”

The price of oil and gas is going up tremendously, the price of food is going up tremendously. The business model of countries in the Middle East, which could be Israel, could be the UAE, could be Qatar, could be the Saudis or the Omanis, who have essentially said come invest here, it's safe, things are more or less safe. That business model is in question as it hasn't been in a while and, you know, a few more

weeks of this is going to exacerbate that problem.

Furthermore, if this war takes a turn towards boots on the ground and the losses get larger, that could, that could be a drag on public opinion. Do you, I mean, you seem to suggest you think it's possible to turn, would you expect

“that to be something that could happen in a few days, or a few weeks, or a few months?”

In this year, there were over 10,000 electrofahrzeuge for Amazon Leverungen in ganz Europa eingesetzt, for Leverungen wie Fußballer für junge Kicker. I don't know, 10,000 electrofahrzeuge, and it will be more. Based on the plans to continue our Lever Partner in the EU and Großbritannien at the end of 2020. I mean, look, it could go either way and, and I'm not saying much by saying this, you know,

you have a, and a, an erratic president who makes decisions based on gut instincts or feelings or the last guy he trusts that spoke to him with a total disregard for consequences, total derision of the idea of cause and effect, and total recklessness in terms of the consequences of repercussions. All that being said and established, Trump is probably more sensitive to what's going on in the energy sector, as you mentioned, and that business model that you spoke

about, more than it's anyhow. It's always all about chaos and anarchy now.

Let's attack Iran. Let's see what happens. Maybe something good, good will come out of it. Okay, let's not call it regime change because that's difficult, even he, Netanyahu, yesterday admitted that you can't affect regime change from there. Wow, well, what, what a revelation, what an epiphany. But Trump is far more sensitive to that because of the price of gas in, in, at the pump, in, in Cleveland, Ohio, or Trenton, New Jersey, or New York, or Miami, and, and he has a

he has congressional midterm elections in, in November, so he's probably more sensitive to this

“than, than mission, Netanyahu. Pace important. The fact that Netanyahu attacked, apparently,”

without American coordination or knowledge, according to Trump, the, the, the gas installations in, in Iran, after which or in retaliation to which the Iranians attacked south, arse, you know, the joint Qatari Iranian gas field in, in the Gulf. But you asked, you know, a carnal question, I mean, what, what, what would it take to change this? Look, Trump, you know, he can commit troops, he can, he could seize or, uh, lay siege, uh, to the Isle of Park. He could, uh, you know, put the entire

U.S. Navy in the, uh, in the, uh, Strait of Hormuz. Um, but he could also, with equal, uh, likely who would declare in three days, um, a historic victory and pull out. We know how he operates, um, and, and that would leave Netanyahu, you know, the idea that that Trump will pull out, but Netanyahu will continue on bombing Tehran, that's, that's unfathom. That's not going to happen. And so, I mean, you, you, you might think so, but I mean, what, you know, one thing, you know,

that is resonant to an American listener listening to this is, you're talking about 80% Israeli support for this war. American polls show the support for it is between seven and nine percent. Right. So, so, so there's, right, but I'm just like there, there is no support here for that.

you know, fighting Iran is BB's life work. It is. And Trump can't, Trump has 80 HD, right?

“He can't maintain a thought in his head for more than 20 seconds. Um, and this is impacted his”

dating life, his business life, and it impacts the way it runs the country. And, you know, he's just like, oh, this is a pain in the ass, I'm going to change the change my tune. And then all of a sudden, being, and then you know, has got to deal with Iran, has got to deal with regional instability, and we haven't even brought up. I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. So, an element of this that no one in the United States is talking about for 30 seconds, which is that Israel is going

into Lebanon, nearly a million people are displaced, over a thousand people are dead. And this is,

you know, if this weren't for the Iran war, this would be a major war in the Middle East right now.

“So, you know, there's, there's more to it than that, right? A hundred percent. And, and, you know,”

bearing more bad news than you, let's add to that the fact that in Gaza, nothing is happening. There are 25,000 armed Hamas members in Gaza, after Mr. Netanyahu posted, who knows how many times, total victory in annihilation and evisceration and obliteration. And Mr. Trump, with a lot of fans there, formed the Board of Peace and even got the FIFA, the World Soccer Federation Peace Prize. And you take Gaza, where nothing is happening, Lebanon, where a million people have been displaced,

and it is being bombed incessantly, even as we speak, I just saw half an hour ago that the Israeli planes were attacking. Then you have Iran, we haven't even discussed the other possibilities

“of conflagration, which is why you would think rationally, aside from the ADHD that you mentioned,”

the back Trump, you would think that Trump would cut his losses, you know, if his decision-making is as he brags and boasts and describes himself as some kind of an ultimate quintessential dealmaker

that is always about the best deal possible in cutting your losses and maximizing your gains.

rationally, he should stop the war in a few days. Yet, at the same time, he also needs to declare some kind of victory. And I don't see that happening. That involves, you know, a lot of geopolitical stuff that you at the outset said we will get to the fact that he postponed his trip to China. By the way, parenthetically, I have no proof for what I'm saying now, but I'm not sure that he's a one or post-bonded. I am, I am more inclined to think that the Chinese through diplomatic

channels made it clear that perhaps this is not a good time to have this isn't, but that's in parenthesis. You have China, you have the Europeans refusing to cooperate with him. You have those golf countries that you mentioned in terms of the business model being damaged, diminished, and, and, you know, threatened, you know, they built business hubs, not just oil and gas, but also

AI and crypto currency and what have you. You have them now entertaining second thoughts about the

usefulness and utility of having, of being dependent on the US and having the US as a mentor, that, you know, for years the US said keep China out. We'll protect you. Now, I would not blame a cutari and emirati or even its order, from saying, you know, come to think of it. I don't know what's going to happen in 2021, but right now, Xi Jinping is a forces stability and reason more than Donald Trump. And, and, and the most menacing destabilizing chaos agent in the region is not Iran. It's Israel.

Now, this, this, you know, this, this goals against everything I believed in and worked for for many many years, but I, I can't fault them for thinking this. By the way, this is what Joe Kent said and his resignation letter. This is what Cooper Carlson says in his podcast. This is, this is what these guys are saying these days. Cringe. Yes, right. I know even though they're horrible anti-Semite people, but yeah, and you haven't mentioned that Russia is actually now profiting from this because we've

lifted sanctions and not just on oil, but on some Russian whole guards. And, and you haven't mentioned

straight of our moves. That's right. And, in other words, you know, or frankly, and I'm frankly

“surprised this card hasn't been played more. The, the, the, the Xi population of Iraq could start”

making more trouble in Iraq, which I got to tell you if there's one thing that would freak out the American people. It would all of a sudden be somebody saying, "Oh, well, Iraq." You know, even mentioning the name Iraq, it's going to cause PTSD in the United States. I can imagine.

I'd like to think that Trump who was always against the war in Iraq and, and, and, and faulted

Bush and even faulted Hillary Clinton at the time claiming that he supported her in 2008, but he will never forgive her for supporting the war in Iraq, etc. etc. Learn the lesson, yet on the other hands, um, look at the evolution of his thinking on, on, on Iran, you know, for the, for the

“benefit of, and give me 30 seconds here, David. In 2000, you know, he came in, he was, he was inaugurated”

in January 2017 in his first term. He immediately declared the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA, a bad deal that Obama can't negotiate. I could do a better deal, but then extended it, you know,

in, in chunks of six months every time. Until he was convinced, uh, by Netanyahu, but not only by Netanyahu,

that this is a deal of war for leaving, uh, withdrawing from unilaterally, because if you do that, and you impose sanctions, the Iranians will beg to come back for a deal. And he did so in May of 2018. That backpired. Not only did they not beg to come back, but he actually admitted in the conversation with, uh, the French President Macron, that he made a mistake and wanted Macron to negotiate, uh, a, a return to the deal, but the Iranians weren't ready until the U.S. lifted

sanctions. Okay, that's history. Then, uh, Joe Biden unsuccessfully tried to go back to the JCPOA,

but then it was, uh, well, the Iranians weren't in the, yeah, enthusiastic, and then Russia invaded.

You can, okay, we're, we're fast forwarding to 2025, Trump's President again. He attacks Iran in June for no reason, by the way, and he attacks Iran again in February, 28. This is the war that we're currently. So he has been misled, not just buying Netanyahu, yes, buying Netanyahu, but not just buying Netanyahu, but by dilatants and, and, and, and, and, and in experts, or in expertise, I don't know if that's even a term, uh, that surrounds him, uh, that this can be done.

I go back to your opening, uh, remark David, that he thought this is, you know, this is, whoa, this is like buying a condo in, in, on, on, on, on 14th Street in New York. No, it's not, and it's not Venezuela. It's much more similar, if there's a, if there is a, uh, a, uh, to, to look

“at, it's a rock rather than, uh, uh, Venezuela. So, yeah, I think I, I, you should be very scared of the,”

uh, comparison. Yeah, well, I mean, you know, as I've said several times, it's a middle of this, you know, BB has been saying we should do this for 25 years. People have been, you know, with the US has been an adversarial position with Iran for almost 50 years. Republicans have looked at it, Democrats have looked at it. Iran has done terrible things. They've been the world's leading state sponsor of terror. They've been repressive. They've been horrible. Um, they've captured Americans,

put them in jail. They've done all sorts of awful things. And yet every single US administration that has discussed this issue. And I can say with the high degree of confidence, every single administration has discussed this issue, they concluded, now we shouldn't do this for all the reasons that we're seeing now. I mean, you know, it's, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's chilling to think just how much accumulated experience and wisdom has been discarded in order to get to this place.

Yeah, I, I, I, I actually think not only that you're right, um, but that this is the card that Netanyahu played against Trump. Do this because your predecessors were too afraid to do it. Do this because your predecessors are refrained from engaging Iran. Do this so you can go down in history. Look how easy it was to get rid of the door. Trust me, the Iranian regime will

It's good that it has. Uh, but this is in this reality thing. This is not an, um, an American thing.

“When Trump goes on this, nothing short of hoax about, about Iran on the verge of attacking the”

US and Iran weeks away from, from Obama. A, it has to do with the, uh, technical, um, ignorance of the people. He sent to negotiate with Iranians, but I'm not even getting to that Iran chose not to develop a nuclear. I'm not defending the Iranians. They deserve whatever they're getting now. That's not the point. Iran made a conscious choice not to break through, not to break out, not to cross the so-called nuclear threshold. And Mr. Trump, um, if he is so worried about a country that

possesses, uh, nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, that can reach the US. What about his buddy

Kim Jong-gun, the guy, the guy from the famous, uh, 2018, 2019 love letters, the guy from the, um, romantic round of rules in Singapore and Vietnam. All of the sudden North Korea is not an issue, but Iran is.

“And I think you just put your finger on it. This is exactly what Netanyahu convinced him of doing.”

You could change the Middle East forever. Once you do this, remember David, this is the same Benjamin Netanyahu, that in 2002, at a hearing in front of the House, uh, foreign relations committee, as, as a citizen, as a former prime minister at the time, not in government, encouraged the US to invade Iraq, claimed this was September 2002, the US eventually invaded in March 2003, claiming that this would revert quote unquote reverberate throughout the Middle East and not

only democratize Iraq, but also, uh, induced regime change in Iran. That was 24 years ago. Okay, so, so, so when someone claims that Mr. Netanyahu has been wrong about his strategic assessments, he's been wrong about his strategic assessments, not recently. He's been wrong about his strategic assessments for decades, for decades. That doesn't mean that Iran is not a threat. That doesn't mean that Netanyahu did not have valid points when it came to Iran. It just means

that when push came to shove, he was going for war. Look, he is the guy who pressed the world, but particularly the US, uh, to address this. And then, at the time, uh, Barack Obama, then President said, "Fine, we will. You're absolutely right." And they did. In late 2014, the US retracted or reversed all its efforts on the Palestinian issue and put all its efforts, all its diplomatic efforts into the Iran thing, and that resulted in a nuclear deal,

which Netanyahu spoke against in Congress after it was signed. So, we're looking at a guy who was

who, as he said, he said this, first day of the war on 28th of February, this is something

I've been yearning for for 40 years. Well, he convinced Trump. And, and, you know, it's, it's, it's, um, I don't know how this war is going to end. I don't know what the consequences are going to be. We can, we can hypothesize you and I, but I'll tell you one thing, Trump and Netanyahu bring out the absolute, very ultimate worst in each other. And there's plenty of, there's plenty

“of it, um, around. No, plenty of it to go around. No question about it. Well, I mean, I think,”

you know, a little bit of credit has to go to Jared Kushner to steep with God. These are the, these are the ignorance experts I spoke about. But let me ask you one last question, because we had limited in time here. But I'm just interested in Israeli perspective. We just had some elections in the US. And one of the central issues in the elections in Illinois, let's say, was whether or not candidates were supported by a pack, um, and whether or, or groups affiliated

with a pack. And, in fact, it is very clear that in the upcoming 2026 elections, that is also going to be a central issue. And that in fact, we have seen this unbelievable shift in American attitude towards Israel. There's an NBC poll last week that showed that whereas a few years ago, something like 40% of Americans supported the Israeli view and only 13% supported Palestinian view or felt more kinship with Palestinian view. Today, it's, it's even. It's 41, 41 or 40, 40.

the Democratic Party is measured typically at 80, 80 plus percent. But the, the opposition also exists for pretty horrible reasons. In the base of the Republican Party, um, the, by horrible reasons,

“I mean anti-Semitism. But, but, but, but, but I don't think that's what's motivating”

Democrats. I, I, I, I, most, the majority of American Jews sympathetic to Israel despise Netanyahu

and his policies. I have never seen a collapse in the, in a quality of a relationship, the nature

relationship, an, an international brand, if you will, like the collapse I've seen of the brand of Israel in the country that is most, it, that is its most critical partner. I could not agree more. This is a major, major chapter in the book I'm writing about this. Um, you and I shared ideas, uh, in the last two, three year, well, two years since the war at least, um, about this. I think, you know, we could, we could look at, at structural reasons for the erosion and the relationship.

“We could look at cracks. We could analyze whether Israeli interests in American interests were aligned,”

in the 90s and into the 2000s. But, if you talk about this specific collapse and I could not

agree more with that term, it all boils down. It can all be reduced, uh, to one man Benjamin Netanyahu. He developed some kind of, um, um, um, um, you know, peculiar unique replacement theory. That's the place American Jews with evangelicals. Let's replace Democrats with their Republicans. Um, this goes back to the mid-90s, uh, uh, with his, uh, uh, uh, uh, pro, you know, his, his affinity with, uh, Jerry Falwell on the, on the evangelical site and, and, and Newt the English in Congress,

then the deep parties during the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, uh, Obama administration. And now his full

“support for Maga and Trump, um, he has, he has mortgage, Israel's relational collapsed, but, but also”

mortgage is over relationship with, with, with the vast majority of Americans. Um, and he has done so callously recklessly irresponsibly. And this is from a guy who, for years, dragged that door on with your America, I know everything about America. No. No. Absolutely not. He's, he's done, uh, uh, uh, almost irreparable damage. It'll take a long time and a complete, uh, uh, uh, uh, change of paradigm, change of perception, change of mindset from Israel to, uh, um, um,

alter that, uh, uh, that trajectory. Well, you know, and, and I might add, uh, a generational change in Israel or leadership that we don't see, you know, sitting in America. I don't see who the alternative is because even the alternatives to Netanyahu or kind of like, yeah, Netanyahu, like, you know, I could not agree more. Uh, you don't see them because they don't exist. Um, uh, there are alternatives, the only difference between them in Netanyahu is that they're not corrupt. And he's at least

allegedly under, in, in a trial for alleged, uh, corruption, and they are not. That's the only difference. If you look at the last, uh, 20 days David, you look at statements made by Israeli, our leaders of opposition. Uh, they have been, uh, um, as, as belligerent, bellicos, uh, uh, uh, uh, gungo about Iran, as, as, as, as, as mentioned, perhaps even more than Mr. Netanyahu. But otherwise things are good. Uh, but that's is what people who know you, and I love you,

you know, right, depend upon, which is that somehow despite all of this, you don't lose your sense of humor. Uh, look, I got, I got to tell you something. I don't know if this you're going to use this as much as I oppose what Trump and Mr. Netanyahu are doing. I still have much deeper reservations about, uh, Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone, uh, um, with the New York Yankees. You, you, you, you can choose to air this or cut it off and during, um, well, it is the

first, first of all, we wear everything. We don't edit stuff out. And secondly, uh, it is the

first day of spring and so baseball is about to begin and, uh, so it seems like a perfectly appropriate comment. And frankly, we all need to find a way to take our minds off of this because the

corner on that weird, grateful. Uh, we, you know, plead with you, take care of yourself, come visit

“us here and we'll obviously keep talking to on a regular basis. But for now, thank you a lot.”

Thank everybody for listening. Have a good weekend. Uh, and we'll be back with more every

single day here to the SR Network. Uh, bye bye. [BLANK_AUDIO]