NTK: Special Update: Breaking Down the US Terms of Surrender to Iran

subbasement of the Ministry of Snark in Washington, DC and from other undisclosed locations across America and around the world.

“Hello and welcome to a special need to know, it's special because we don't usually”

do an update on what show that we did a day before. But sometimes news happens that way and sometimes we can go from speculating about things to talking about more concrete facts. And so we thought we would have Joe Serencian and John Wolfstalk come back and talk a little bit about the text of the alleged MOU with Iran that is circulating widely, including some credible media outlets. And seems to be the text,

although given the reaction to it, which has been very negative, perhaps there's going to be some change. And I just to put that into, you know, a bit of a frame, the New

“York Post this morning responded to the leaked text by having a one word front page headline,”

which was in reference to what Trump has now dropped on Iran with this. And it was love bomb. And that sort of the mega response to this, others have simply suggested that then it was surrender document. Still others, including me, have said that Trump is probably going to win the order of Zulfigar, Iran's highest military honor, because nobody has done as much to restore the power of the ruling regime in Iran as Donald Trump. But why do

we sort of break down what has circulated here? I know that John has copied this in front

of him. And has for a while, because I, my woke up this morning, the first thing I saw

“was John going, oh, my God. Oh, my God. So, what was it for a from, from, from, from when's”

do the O. M. G's come, John? So, sorry to wake you this morning, David, Mike, that's what's going on. We're up early in the Wolfstall House. There was a text that appears to be accurate on CNN. It's a page and a half. It seems to cover the issues that Trump and J.D. fans have talked about being covered. And interestingly, Trump himself had said, well, don't, don't react to the text. We have all of these other understandings and

back channels that, you know, so, so you're, you're overreacting. Don't worry about what the agreement actually says, just trust me. But for people like us who live in the real world, the text is the, the text is what the Iranians will say we've agreed to. The text is what will eventually have to be put in front of Congress under US law. And so I'm just looking at this text. And if it proves to be authoritative, there are a couple of things

that immediately just jump out at you. The first and, and foremost, is that the United

States is going to issue waivers. As soon as the memorandum of understanding a sign on Friday, so that Iran can start exporting oil again, legally, and petrochemicals and derivatives, waivers on banking transactions, which means essentially the impact of the US sanctions regime, which has been building up since the late 1980s, is just going to get waved with the, the, the, a magic wand, and will continue to provide up to 200 plus million dollars

a day of legal revenue for Iran every day that the negotiations go on. So, if Iran does

nothing in the negotiations for the first 60 days, it's going to bang $200 million a day with

no restrictions on where it can go. So, if it wants to give that money to Hamas or as Malaw or rebuild the IRGC or buy weapons, that's totally okay according to the text. So, that's, that's 12 billion bucks right there. So, and that's, and that's, and that's 60, see how I did that 60 times 200.

that jumps out of me is that, it says, the, the Republic of Iran and the United States agree

“that pending final agreement, they will maintain the status quo, meaning Iran will maintain”

the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions or strengthen its forces in the region, which means the United States has to start with drawing its forces. And under the agreement, it's going to have to withdraw all of its regional forces. It says, so we can get to that language in a minute, what it means. But in the meantime, for the negotiations, Iran keeps its 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium enriched to 60%.

Now, it may also mean that Iran can't rebuild any of its nuclear facilities, can't rebuild any of its enrichment, but assuming that Iran still has operational enrichment equipment somewhere that could be operating, it gets to keep that by the terms of the agreement. So it seems like Iran's going to get money. It's going to keep the nuclear program that Trump says was an imminent threat. And there's no definition on what Iran actually has to do

in the long term on nuclear, on missiles, on proxies at all. So those are missiles and proxies, aren't even mentioned. Missiles and proxies aren't even mentioned at all, or regional instability,

or regional relationships. It's, so those are the first two things we can go on and on, but I don't

“want to disagree with. No, no, those are your first reactions. Joe, what are yours?”

This is a complete humiliation. This is a major defeat for Donald Trump. And now you understand why he kept the text secret, because he wanted a few days to create this alternative reality, but just the words he was saying, to portray this as a victory. And this is the standard Trump approach. He has great faith in his ability to hypnotize the American people to convince them that his illusions are actually real, that his name is still on the Kennedy Center,

that the reflecting pools blue, not algae green, that he won this war not lost it. Well, this is a very difficult illusion to maintain, because the reaction to this agreement has been shocked across the political spectrum. And the reason is that shock is because Iran commits to very little in this one and a half page memorandum of understanding other than opening up the straight, which of course, just the situation we encountered. We were in 108 days ago before this

war began. And it exchanged the U.S. does all these things, does all these steps, in addition to

what John mentioned, it commits the United States to creating and using a three hundred billion

dollar reparations, excuse me, we construction fund that Iran would be able to draw on. I mean, I don't want to go too far on this, but this looks a lot like the terms that France imposed on Germany at the end of World War I. But you'd negotiate. But this is a regression. So this is shockingly bad. It is worse than what we thought. Two days ago, we were when we talking about how bad this was going to be, we were wrong. It is worse than than what we thought.

“And that's why you're seeing senators back off from this. You see, it's not just the Atlantic”

and the New York Post. It's the Wall Street Journal. It's the New York Times. It's an NPR. I mean, this is just seals the frame here that we lost this war. And the Trump gambit on this is to say three things. No, we didn't lose this war. If we lost this war, it's because, you know, we didn't do it right. And if we didn't do it right, it's because of J.D. Vance and not Donald Trump. Well, that's some of his camp. He was on, you know, being in every of this morning at in France.

And he did say a couple of other things. One, he complimented Iran to attack Israel. And then he said, if Iran does anything in this period, we don't like well drop bombs on their heads. It was specific about their heads, which I thought was kind of childish. But yeah, it's going.

Well, I was going to say that's kind of interesting. Because, you know, the first paragraph

of this agreement says that upon signing the memorandum understanding that two sides will not launch any hostile action against each other. And what we're framed from the threat or use of force against each other. So Trump may just get out of his system. Because after Friday, he would violate the agreement if he said things like, we'll just bomb you. Well, you're absolutely right. Another thing that it says in the very first point is that we'll create an immediate and permanent end

to the war on all fronts. Permanent is an interesting use of word because we're then entering

negotiation? But we'll set that aside. Into the war on all fronts, including Lebanon,

unless except that no party to the war in Lebanon is actually a signatory to this agreement. And it does specifically say that the United States and Iran together with their allies. So, yes, yes, yes, yes. We'll mention twice. But Israel's not in on this. And they can clear the deal whenever they want. Right. But the deal commits to the United States and its allies.

“That's an, so that's what it's up to Trump to then enforce this upon Net Yahoo. And that's going to”

be a hornet system. Right. And it's a good thing if you did it. It doesn't pay a dozen people in Israel high positions in the past 24 hours have said that won't happen. I want to, let me go through the

super quickly. We're going to take 30, 30 seconds or a minute. But the second point sort of reiterates

the first point undertaking to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. That, of course, is just a reiteration of the United States is going to leave Iran alone. The third point is to undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Now, I'm not a lawyer, but when you say a maximum period and then you say it's extendable,

it's not a maximum period. That's, you know, I just buy, you know, take on it. And then it says immediately upon signing the U.S. is going to lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Republic of Iran and restore traffic within 30 days to full capacity. The traffic of ships proportional to pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Republic of Iran. The U.S. also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days

after the final agreement. This is your point, John. In terms of withdraw its forces from the

“surrounding areas, I think the response in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE at elsewhere is,”

huh? What are you talking about? You have a fleet based in Bahrain. Right. Right. That's the surrounding area. Right. And so I don't think the U.S. actually means that, but then J.D. Vance or whatever wordsmith who agreed to this, you know, created it. Now he's going to have to live with it as you say in the negotiation. At the fifth point is that Iran will immediately take steps to ensure movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the sea of Oman

within 30 days, and that they have to remove technical obstacles and neutralize mines. Okay. This is, I mean, it makes it clear. What this agreement is about is getting the Strait of Hormuzope. Yes. That's their main goal. The U.S. will then create a comprehensive plan for the economic development of Iran, ensuring financing of at least,

and we need to keep that in mind to 300 billion. And it says we'll do this with its regional partners.

Who again are not signatories to the agreement, but Trump and Vance have already said, oh no, the golfies will pay for it. So, you know, so, so that, is that true? Who not? Well, you know, is Trump paying for the ballroom? Is Trump paying for the reflecting pool? Who knows? He's going to pay. Well, actually, in both those cases, I think we know the answer to the U.S. commits to ending all type of sanctions against Iran of any sort. I think one of the, yeah.

Oh, yeah. All sanctions of any sort, you wear it. Okay, arms and bar go. Right. We have to, to stem. And so a lot of these require the deal and commits and require you to go to the U.S. Security Council because they're international sanctions. They, the IAEA sanctions. A lot of

“things have to be done, but this is what it commits to United States. June, you have to understand”

this reverses the last 30 years of U.S. policy under Republicans and Democrats. This is an unbelievable turning point. And it's all turning on Iran's terms. Iran has achieved all of its objectives. So, one of the, one of the, one of the, the war to stop the war to stop. You wanted the U.S. forces to withdraw. It's, they're withdrawing. It wanted reparations. It's getting reparations. So, one of the sanctions lifted and got the sanctions lifted. And so far, it's completely unclear what Iran is

actually going to do. They don't commit to any of the things that they were willing to commit to before the war began. So, this, this, this, this is, is not just a win. This is, this is a slaughter on the U.S. Well, they're just getting to the nook stop. So, they don't get to nook until 0.8. But go ahead. Well, right. But let's, let's get to the nook stop because then we go Iran reiterates,

Because as we've pointed out, you know, they have agreed not to produce nuclear weapons for

“60 years. It's actually David, so I, I found out yesterday's from 1957. So, it's 57. So, it's almost”

70 years. So, okay. Good. I thought it was 66. Now, it's 57. It's moving back. But they've committed to it. And they have agreed. Now, I want you guys to parse this, that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed, nuclear related materials, including Iran's nuclear needs. Needs, which means something stays because they've needs, will be adequately addressed in the final agreement. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article,

the only provision of this article is that they won't produce a nuclear weapon. But you,

you guys have negotiated these things before. How strong is that? So, having worked on this for some time, I can tell you the way Iran says, including Iran's nuclear needs, what it is saying is enrichment. It needs to be able to enrich its own uranium for use in the civilian research reactor that the United States sold them in 1967. Which is 20% enriched uranium.

“That's correct. That's what that fuel is. 20%. So, they have a need to enrich to 20%”

plus the power reactor, which is at 3.67%. So, they have a need to enrich to these various levels. Which means, correct me if I'm wrong, that they have to maintain all the capabilities to enrich it beyond that. In other words, they have the scientists, they have the centrifuges, they have the setup, they have the know how. So, essentially they're saying, here's our baseline launch pad. Yeah. Right. Am I wrong about that? I'm going to go back and look at

Apex statements from 2015 to see how they characterize the joint comprehensive plan of action, which allowed Iran under very tight inspections with a very limited amount of material to continue to enrich, to get the exact terminology. But I think it was that this are all the components you need for a nuclear weapons program. It's simply latency approved by the United States and complete capitulation. Yeah. In other words, in other words, I'd best this is very similar to the

JCPOA that Netanyahu and the Iran Hawks denounced, for years denounced this deal as weak as laying an ink Trump even says that yesterday, you know, laid a pathway for Ron to get a bomb. This does the exact same thing. Well, except, except, except, it's, it's much weaker. But the other thing that it brings up to me is that when Apex and BB pulled all their harons, that that's a terrible deal in 2015, and then persuaded Trump to pull out of it,

that led to Iran enriching, which led to these wars, which has now led to this, their strategy on this has dramatically, as produced a dramatically worse situation. So the ninth point here is, and this one was pretty opaque to me, Iran and the U.S. agree that pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo, Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions.

So essentially this says for the next 60 days, no change. Correct? Absolutely correct. But I thought that they were weeks away from a nuclear weapon. It's worth a tell. I watch J.D. Vance from yesterday or the day before saying, yeah, Iran was weeks from a nuclear weapon, and Trump said Israel's going to be wiped off would have been destroyed by now. But in the same sentence he said, but of course, we completely

decimated their nuclear program. The reality is Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched material.

We don't know where that material is. At some point, somebody including, I assume, the international atomic energy agency is going to have to go in, yet that material and provide safeguards and inspections over it, that's going to take months,

“as we talked about yesterday. So that's how I'm going to get done in 60 days. But in the meantime,”

they get to keep whatever they've got. The problem is, and you're stuck with it, there's no more chance.

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in the future. We appreciate your support and thank you for listening. Now back to the show. Okay, so the 10 point is we promise that we're going to lift the sanctions. But between now and when we lift the sanctions, the Treasury Department, which, by the way, means executive department unilaterally without the intervention of the Congress, is going to issue waivers for the exports of Iranian crude petrochemical products and their derivatives and all related services

including, and this is hugely important in the context of war on terrorist stuff, banking insurance, transportation, and the like. By the way, and again, who wrote this? This is a life and this is like

so massive. First of all, I have emails or texts out to a couple of legal friends of mine who

helped write the Iran nuclear agreement review act, and I'm not sure the present does have waiver authority, but it's something that Congress may be able to review and block. So it's not clear he is a unilateral authority to do this, but this basically means that Iran is open for business, including anybody it wants to give money to. By the way, I'd just like to point out one thing here, which gets lost of the sauce. I did note this morning that somebody said something like Trump,

will you say something about that Putin needs to, you know, be nicer in Ukraine and Trump said,

“no, I'm not going to comment on that. In other words, he wouldn't criticize his boss, right?”

Well, in the midst of this whole war, setting aside for the moment, Iran is a Russian ally. We lifted sanctions on Russia, so they could trade oil. So it could be that you could get to the end of this thing, and Iran and Russia are going to have sanctions that have been around for a long time. Go on. That doesn't suck good. So here's, here's the level. There's only 14. So we'll just take him like this. The US undertakes that in light of the progress of negotiations to a final agreement,

which has to mean given where we are now, frozen or restricted funds or assets of the Islamic Republic, in Iran will be released and made fully available. Now, the language here is complicated, because there's a lot of money that's been frozen. And to say fully available, does that mean all the assets? Or does it mean the ones that will be released will be fully available, unclear? These funds, whether held in MasterCount or transferred will be used for any financial beneficiary

payment determined by the central bank of Iran, and will be fully available for you.

Second time, the word fully is used. The US undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses.

“I read this a little differently, David. I think, and I'm going to give the administration”

the benefit of a little doubt here, or a little benefit of doubt here, that this is based on whatever progress is made during the next six days. So there's clearly some backroom agreement that says, okay, once we sit down, you get a little bit of this, once we start to talk about this, you get a little bit more. But the US is going to make available Iranian money for them to do and spend on whatever they want in some schedule to be determined if we haven't seen that.

You may say that, but if I were a lawyer, I would tell you that's not what it says. You may interpret it that way, and the US may have meant it that way. But when you say,

negotiations toward a final agreement, it implies it's already happened. I'm sure that Iran will take that position, and given the need for a Trump to implement this agreement, we'll probably have a very friendly here.

“Right. So there's two things here. One is, I think the administration intended to be a pay for play.”

So as we make progress, you'll get rewarded, which is what the JCPOA did, same kind of system. They didn't get everything up front. They got it in increments. But David, your points will take, and not not sure how that would actually stand up. The second thing is that point about as it sees fit, that's to correct what Iran didn't like about the JCPOA, which is a lot of the money that we unfrozen went to pay Iran's debt. In other words,

it's never actually went to Iran. It went to other countries to whom Iran owed money.

And Iran is saying, no, no, no, no, we're not going to do that again. It all comes to us, and then will decide where it goes. And he was getting said, show me the money. Yeah, and I know he was there to go shading the JCPOA with you.

“But in terms of this, how much money was released with the JCPOA?”

About $50 million, $50 billion overall. There was a separate deal, but all that was made available, because there was a banking, so there was on the order of about $15 to $20 billion that was made available over the first three years. Okay, directly to Iran? No, no, no, no, there was made available for Iran to pay debts.

I haven't seen any intelligence report that says how much money actually made it to me.

That's right. That's right. It was $15, yeah, that's right. It was $15 billion.

Plus, there was a separate case that was settled that resulted in that fame as $1.7 billion in cash. Being sent to Iran. That was not actually part of the Iran deal. That was a settlement of a suit that Iran had brought against the United States, which they won. And so this was a settlement that Obama had to make. So that's the total. So this agreement dwarfs the amount of money that changed hands

as a result of the Obama deal and related agreements. Right, and the conversation around this particular provision is that is $24 billion in the course of this amount. With not mentioned here, but that's the conversation. Okay, a couple more points. Iran and the U.S. agree that an implementation mechanism will be established. Okay, fine, that's bullshit. And then following the signing of this, and upon receipt of assurances,

the U.S. and Iran will enter into negotiations for a final, and in receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of four or five ten and eleven article four being that the U.S. will lift the blockade. Article five being that Iran will open up the Straits of Hormuz article 10 being that the waivers will be lifted and article 12 being that there is an, oh no, and 11, and article 11

“means that these funds will be released. Right, so nothing on nuclear in this, but, but, but I think the”

important thing here is that it says, following the signing of this memorandum, allegedly and Friday, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of four, five, ten and eleven, then the U.S. and Iran will enter into negotiations. Yes, that's right. But it's a question solely with respect to the remaining articles. So that means Iran is saying everything else is walled off. You can't add later that you want to deal with missiles or drones or

proxies or anything else. Right, but they're also saying until the money starts flowing to us, we're not even having the conversation, which, again, this is all on Iran's terms. This is what Iran wants in the U.S. was forced to agree to this because they lost the war. I mean, this is the reality. We lost. This did not work. This 30-year effort to get us to go to war

Iran so we could change a regime or end their program or liberate their people. We finally did it,

and it was a complete and total catastrophe, and we're ending up worse than we were before. Right, and so this is exactly like a sort of John Gotti transaction in Queens, that the kind that that Trump would have liked, or one of his lawyers, which is, how much is it going to take to make this go away? Right, right? It's gourmet all over again. Yeah, but it's all his deals. It's his whole life. You got one more article, David, you got to

get to. No, I know. I'm saving it because it's so good. Pretty boring, but no, it's complicated, but it's complicated. And that is the final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution at the UN Security Council. Which means, Russia, China will go along, because this is a great deal for them. UK will go along because they're America's junior partner, our laptop.

direct pathway to enrichment and a bomb without real constraints. Right, this is hard to remember,

but France was always to the right of the United States on this issue. They were the proliferation

hawks. They were the ones who insisted zero enrichment. No enrichment. You can't be a little bit pregnant. They kept saying over and over again. So Iran is, oh, I mean, France has always been hard on this. We're going to have a problem. Well, is this the, I mean, the, you read it and you go, U.S. gets nothing because the two things the U.S. gets are open straight, which exists before February 25th. And promise not to have nooks, which existed since 1957. And, or as John would

“like us to put it since before John was born. Since you guys, since you guys had kids, right?”

Yeah. So those are the things that we've gotten. They've gotten maybe $300 billion, maybe $24 billion, maybe the lifting of all of these sanctions, the ability to keep their nukes and the ability to have all of this and the ability to end the U.S. pulling troops out of the region, ending its blockade and all of this be sacrificed and blessed by the U.N. security council. Yeah. Well, the JCP away, similarly was approved by the U.N. Security Council, even though the talking

points of the administration, I don't know if you've seen those, make a big deal of this last

paragraph. They said the JCP and U.N. never achieved anything like this. We're going to get this

ratified by the, by the U.N. and by you. But no, the JCP or I went through a similar procedure. This is nothing new. Again, it's nothing new. They're replicating what the agreement they tore up in 2018. Except when we went through the U.N. Security Council, we got the ability to reimpose, you know, laterally global economic sanctions, which is Trump administration blew up in its first term, couldn't get through because they didn't work with our allies. And there's no mention of how

this is ever going to be enforced. That's a good point. There's no verification. In the JCP away, we had U.N. member Annex T, which listed all of the weaponization activities that Iran was forever, forever banished. Yes, glory, under verification. I don't, the IEA's only mentioned here in terms of the lifting of resolution. So I hope somebody, and I'm in New John writes an article that compares this outcome with the JCP away. So it becomes clear how much weaker this is

in terms of all of these points. I'm actually working on a short article that does that.

Oh, I'm going to let Joe do that. You know, I got so busy today. You know, it'll be a first draft

John. It'll come out sometimes. We do it together. It's beautiful, beautiful. But I do think it's

“important that there were many more protections in the JCP away that got thrown out when Trump”

tore this up. And the situation got made worse as they enriched for years afterwards. And this doesn't get us anywhere near back to that. So, and by the way, this doesn't address how the flows of traffic in the straight-of-war moves will actually be managed. So it does not preclude the possibility that Iran and Oman, as they have discussed, set up some kind of fee structure or authority or other kind of thing, which would give Iran potentially another source of revenue

in the midst of all of this thing. So Iran, among before all this happened, had people in the streets. It was on the verge of political collapse. It was on the verge of economic collapse. And all of its proxies throughout the region had over the preceding year been defeated, and so it was much weaker. Now, we've fought a war for five months. They're having the biggest economic potentially biggest economic boon that they've ever had, more leverage over the straight, more leverage in the

region, a much stronger role for the government, the hardliners who replaced the people who were in charge, who were pretty our blind begin with, are in much stronger position today than they were

“when the people were in the streets four months ago. Hence, and why I think Trump deserves”

the order of Zulfigar. Well, I'm old enough to remember when the Trump administration was saying that the Abraham Accords were going to transform the geopolitics of the region. Well, that is now

non-aggression pact between the United States and Iran could transform the geopolitics of

“the region, but in a very different direction than what the first Trump administration envisioned.”

- First of all, I assume that Iran is going to go pretty quickly to the Saudis and the Emirates

and the Bahrainis and the Omanis and saying, "How you like me now?" You want to come, we want to come and talk to us on our terms, we told you that that's not probably going to be here. - Probably not going to go super well because some of those countries are still super pissed off at being attacked by the Iranians, but the other thing that's going to happen because the reaction

this is so bad is that Trump will back off of it, he'll make threats that are in violation of

it, bands will back off. There's going to be a lot of churn here in the US that could blow this thing up early in its life. - But again, taking a step back and we're all in the details, I am particularly like, you know, super walk on this stuff. But you take a step back if it blows up, Trump and Hexeth are not going back to war. He wants out, but this is a document that says, "I'm done. I'm taking my toys and going home."

So even if he threatens and Iran says, you know, you violated the deal, they're still going to have the waivers, he still wants oil flowing because he needs gasoline prices to drop. He's not going to start bombing again because he wants out and Iran knows it.

“They have all the leverage. - Right, that's right, that's why I say this is basically a”

non-aggression pact and that changes the whole dynamic. Basically the Saudis, the UAE, the Israelis,

they've lost their main security partner, the guy that the military power they wanted to use to smash Iran. That's over. That whole strategy is gone. And what replaces it is yet unknown, but it's going to be much less favorable to the United States, interests, and much more favorable to Iran, China, and Russia. - Wow, well, look, I'm so glad you guys could make half an hour to come back. And you know, frankly, folks, you're not going to turn on MS now or CNN or

someplace else and get live analysis of the agreement with the kind of insight that you've gotten here from Joe and from John, and I am super grateful that you guys could make the time. And obviously, we'll stay on top of this because this doesn't end anything. It may change a lot,

“but there's a long way to go on this story. And it's real, real important because we haven't”

talked about what happens to global markets when this blows up or what it gets done and who benefits and who's making a little cash on the side and where is the secret crypto deal that's associated with this and who knows what else. So we'll be on it. But for now, looking forward to your short little article on this, Joe. Looking forward to your rebuttal, John. And looking forward to seeing you guys again real soon. And oh, John, congratulations to your daughter on her eighth great graduation.

- Thank you, Dave. Thank you. - So long everybody. Bye-bye.