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"Holl dir dein Geld zurück, tiefen entspannt, mit wie so steuer." "This is the Daily Blast from the New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR network. I'm your host, Greg Sargent." "The details of Donald Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran have now been released, and it's exactly what we expected."
Trump got nothing of any significance. And the surprising group of people are now admitting this. Trump's MAGA allies. Some Fox news figures and right-wing media figures are taking apart the deal in surprisingly harsh terms.
Meanwhile, Trump let out a few tie-raids today attacking Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear deal, even though all indications thus far are that Trump has fared substantially worse than Obama did. We think the big story right now is this. Everything we know right at this moment, strongly suggests that the next stage of the
negotiations with Iran will be even worse for Trump. We're working through all of it with Sina Tusey and Iran expert at the Center for International Policy. Sina, good to have you on. "Hey, Greg, thanks so much for having me on."
So both sides have released the agreement, here's the short version. Creative horror moves open with no charge for passage, but that's only for 60 days. U.S. blockade lifted a victory for Iran. Iran also gets relief from sanctions. Iran reaffirms it won't procure or develop nuclear weapons, which it has already said in
many other instances. The U.S. is working with regional partners to open up $300 billion in reconstruction aid to Iran. Sina, what did the United States get here and what do you make of the steel?
“Yes, so I think the most important thing is that this is not a nuclear deal.”
We're already seeing comparisons to the Obama era nuclear deal in 2015. Deal, this makes no nuclear obligations of Iran.
That most critical issue has been deferred to this 60-day period of negotiations.
And what this deal really is is just a framework deal outlining the ostensible end of this war. And as part of the steel, the most important thing really is the U.S. lifting is blockade on Iran and Iran lifting is blockade on the straight-of-war moves. This problem that did not exist before the war.
As part of that, Iran is actually getting upfront concessions. Most significantly, these oil waivers to sell oil during this period of negotiations, as well as access to its frozen assets, its own frozen money that's been frozen into sanctions as well as region-wide ceasefire, including Lebanon. And these are, this is a big deal and these are major kind of upfront concessions that
Iran is now receiving as a result of this war. Just to boil this down in really simple terms, basically what happened here is that Trump
said we're opening up $300 billion in reconstruction aid to Iran provided you meet it a bunch
of conditions later, but we are opening it up in order to undo the mistake. I made in launching this war in the first place in getting the straight-of-war moves and bringing the global economy to its knees. Is that what happened? Yeah, absolutely.
I mean, it straight-up says that there's just $300 billion investment fund. I mean, it's one question.
“I mean, it's worth being skeptical about will that actually materialize?”
But what Trump has agreed to right now is, yeah, on paper, there's such an investment fund is being created and for a deal that was already on the table in the past that he left and, you know, he launches dumb war and only created this big quagmire. So let's talk about the nuclear component for a second. As you pointed out, what it does is defer the discussion.
In the deal, there's some tax not much.
Iran agrees not to procure or develop nukes, but that is what it has always said.
It said the same thing in the 2015 Obama nuclear deal. The deal now requires Iran to dilute its enriched material, but doesn't require it to ship
“the material out of the country and that was in Obama's deal, right?”
And so now the details on the constraints on Iran's nuclear program have to be negotiated. Is that about the size of it and what's your take on all that? Yeah, I think if this does lead to a nuclear deal by all accounts and this text also reinforces this is that it's going to look something similar to what Obama got and what was actually on the table before this war because Trump himself in his second term was engaged in nuclear
negotiations with Iran and in the middle of them, they launched surprise attacks on Iran both last June and again in February and in this February track, we actually had this British
national security advisor who was there and he himself said that the deal was basically
at hand and the Omani intermediary at this time said that it was at hand too. But yeah, basically the contours of this deal, much like the JCPOA, seem to be Iran accepting more intrusive transparency, mechanisms, inspections, mechanisms, committing to get rid of its large stockpiles of enriched uranium. So right now it has a 60% enriched uranium.
“It's agreed to dilute this within Iran or at least that's what the idea of this agreement”
is as opposed to sending it abroad, I think you know in Iran that has many political constraints and so it seems like Trump has accepted that this dilution can occur within Iran and previously has said it should come to the US or something. So but yeah, it's basically a very intrusive, comprehensive deal, nuclear deal to enhance the transparency of the nuclear program but it is a compromise, it's not like they're destroying
their nuclear capabilities, giving up their nuclear capabilities, they're still going to be allowed to much like the JCPOA operate a basic nuclear program and the Iranians are very intent on you know what they say is their rights within the nuclear operation treaty to basically have the nuclear producer on nuclear fuel and in the long term this may very well still give them that ability but in the shorter term it seems like they're agreeing to very intense restrictions
that can kind of prevent you know them from having a pathway to nuclear weapons. I just want to pick up on one thing you said there because it's so batshit insane. We could have had this set of negotiations before the war started. I think people don't really realize how absurd Trump's handling of this has really been. Just one more time, Iran and the US were talking about this stuff before Trump launched the war and it probably wasn't out of the
realm of possibility for them to have negotiated to the very point we are at now without the war happening. Is that right? Absolutely. Again, before the war from the records we have, the British National Security Advisor said a deal was at hand. The Oman said a deal was at hand. If anything
Iran's position is much stronger now after the war. The card that the US always had that was
hanging over Iran which is the military card. Right of military action. Now they use that card. They launched 13,000 air strikes against Iran. 13,000 sordies and unprecedented aerial campaign at the end of it. What do we get? According to New York Times and other outlets that are reported on this, 70% of Iranian ballistic missiles are intact. Some similar amount of drones are under around missile cities. They're ability to hit back in the region, close the trade-of-formals.
So they've stood everything that Israel and the US control at them, absorbed that punishment, hit back, exacted a high cost on the US and now this is why I think this deal is reflecting ultimately the battlefield reality where the US engaged in what was a regime change war, engaged in going for the maximalist demands, total surrender, total capitulation, Trump listened to Nathan Yahoo, listened to all these war hawks that are now criticizing him.
And what he got was a huge crackmire inadvertently strengthened Iran's hand. You know, it was classic hubris, it was classic imperial hubris. And now he's giving Iran up front sanctions relief, trying to get them to get like all of the straight-of-formals and is seemingly on a path to accepting a deal that was at hand before the war. I'd hate to interrupt this thrilling podcast, but we have some exciting news at the DSR Network. Our Substack is now live.
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and thank you for listening. Now back to the show. The press broot technology will be a special feature with the sampled screen. And there are now the cube capsule machine in your Chibofiale and on Chibode E. In the best circumstances, as good as Obama's. Now, ProTrom Media has been really harsh on this. This is the details of leaked out over the last few days. Media matters have a good round-up
of stuff. I'm going to read a few. The New York Post says this, quote, "Trump's Iran Deal
gives Iran big wins up front and America nothing." Ben Domenex said, quote, "This doesn't feel
like a victory." Fox News's Brian Kilmeads suggested that parts of the nuclear settlement here are quote unquote not acceptable while trying to throw JD events under the bus for this failure. Fox host Mark Leven said he's quote unquote very skeptical. See, what do you make of all that? Yes, I would say that within the Trump world, within the Maga camp, there have been some divisions on this issue. So right now, you're definitely seeing
the traditional Republican hawks, the neoconservatives. The very ardent pro-Israel ideologues. They are coming out hard against this. They wanted this word. They got it. It's unclear what they wanted this word to go on more. But it's easy for them now from the outside to criticize
“Trump. They have no skin in the game. But I think Trump is ultimately sitting in the situation”
room. He's been hit with political economic, military, and geopolitical reality. It's not like Donald Trump was someone who didn't, if he can go all the way with Iran, he would have gone all the way to Iran. And he said today, the G7, that, oh, I could have bombed them for many more years. What would have happened is the Strait of Hormuz would still have been shot and we would have been in a global depression. So he was faced with the reality of the situation. And he was,
I would argue ultimately forced to come to this compromise. It's imperial overstretch. I mean,
America expended so many munitions that it couldn't afford to expand. It expended, obviously, you know, tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars on this war. And it racked up this immense cost with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, all the knock-on economic effects, the impact on global markets, the impact on the global oil reserves, including America's oil reserve, that the latest headlines are that it's reached the lowest level since 1984. The year was
“established. And so this is, you know, critical crisis. And I think Trump is right when he said”
of this drag on, it would have let to repression, a depression. And so this is again, part of the reality. But Trump listened to these people. He was all on board until he had to now face it blew up in his face. And so now he's forced to try to get this deal. And but on these people are still attacking him. So we'll see if Trump can withstand this pressure. I mean, Obama got so much pressure in 2015 from similar actors when he got the deal. And he, he withstood it, he fought hard
against it. And we'll see if Trump can now withstand this pressure. Well, Fox News is trade, agality had another quote criticizing Donald Trump. He said this, Iran is better off than they were before hostilities begin. And that should not be the consequence of war. Now again, trade agality is committing the same mistake that all these guys did. And Donald Trump did, which is that
“America wasn't going to bomb its way to a successful outcome here. But I think it's a real”
very profound vulnerability for Donald Trump to have all these figures out there beating the hell out of him for failing because the base did was really sold a bill of goods on this. Maga was absolutely sold a bill of horseshit on this whole thing by all these people and by Donald Trump, the White House and Donald Trump are trying to sell the story that the great and mighty
Glorious Donald Trump subjugated Iran.
always losing and he's always winning. And that's why I think it's so lethal for him to have all these
figures in right wing media saying, I know that didn't happen actually. You lost, you lost Donald
“Trump. And so I think that's good to see. Yeah. And it's interesting because I remember during the war”
he had this one truth social post where he really attacked Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, and a lot of those kind of right wing pundits who are against the war. So he kind of threw them under the bus. But now you're seeing that J.D. Vance went on Megan Kelly's show yesterday and he's doing the media circuit. So it's like he's going to need those people in his back again. So I think he's going to have to get Tucker back. He's going to have to get, I don't know, like Megan Kelly can just
owns. I don't know all these various kind of right mean personalities that were critical to his
rise, but were critical against his war as opposed to that Fox News traditional Republican establishment machinery that is very much against this deal and is going to come out against it and he's coming out against it. That is fascinating. We're not really be working hard to mend fences between J.D. Vance and all those figures, especially with J.D. Vance's 2028 run coming up. I want to listen to a couple of things that Donald Trump said about Obama's nuclear deal. First he said this,
and then we terminated. I terminated the J.C. P.O.A. that's Barack Hussein. Obama's horrible deal. And he gave them a nuclear weapon and I terminated it and I stopped it. And he also said this.
He tried to bribe his way out and into that. Nobody mentions that. 1.7 billion and hundreds of
millions of dollars. They tried to bribe their way out of it. And you know what, the Iranians did, they laughed at Obama and they said he's a stupid son of a bitch. So seeing what do you make of that? I mean, there's just no indication whatsoever that Donald Trump has any idea what was in Obama's 2015 deal. All he knows is that he's strong in Obama's week. That's all he knows.
“Yeah. I mean, I think one of his arguably right drivers for his whole 2016 campaign and his”
presidency has really been undoing everything Barack Obama did. He really hated Obama. I think I would argue personally that a lot of that is driven by racism. But Obama's signature foreign policy achievement was that Iran nuclear deal. And when Trump came to office in his first term, all his advisors were saying, don't leave this deal. At the time, we had Madness, Secretary of Defense, we had make master as a national security advisor. All these people were
advising him not to leave because it would we can America's position and it would ultimately harm American interests. And that bore out. But he didn't listen to their advice. He did leave the deal. Again, I would argue for a variety of factors, but a key fund is undoing Obama's legacy, trying to do everything better than him quote on quote. And so now you see all these years later, you know, 2018 was when he left the deal. But now in 2026, after this disastrous war, his marketing
page for this deal is still, oh, it's better than Obama's Obama is, you know, was so weak. The Iranians were laughing at him, etc., etc., when, you know, the Iranians were the ones who fought him in a war. And basically, you know, had him by the balls. I can say that, you know, and he's backed off. And it's, you know, you can let history make the judgment, you know. But I mean, obviously, this is something, this is a strategic retreat arguably from America. Even America on a
trans partisan way was very hawkish on Iran, you know, the form policy establishment. And all these demands, you know, Iran has to give over its missiles. Iran has to end its support for its regional kind of alliance network and, you know, proxies as we call them. And they, there's a retreat on those demands. They're not even in this deal. You know, it's just a nuclear issue now. Well, let's just try to look forward to what comes now. They enter into this stretch of negotiations in which they try to figure out
what the details of the constraints on Iran's nuclear program are going to be. And it looks to me, like Trump is not in a very good position here. First, it's the stuff you said earlier, which was that Iran has now discovered that it can bring the global economy to its knees, and that that will actually get the United States and Trump to move, right? But second, and also
“important is the fact that every day that passes, we get closer to the midterm elections,”
and Trump keeps going out there and saying, oh, you know, if Iran doesn't do what I say, I'll just start bombing again. That's pure bullshit because that will be something that Republicans really, really, really do not want as the midterms are approaching. There will come a point where
Republicans are in such a bad political position due to Trump trying to resta...
that they will probably actually say no, and there will be a vote in Congress. And I think
“you would see Republicans at that point with their careers on the line, suddenly saying,”
you know, we can't do this. And so Iran's got to know this, right? Iran's got to understand these dynamics pretty well, don't you think? Yes. I mean, the biggest thing that this war did for Iran is it allowed it to activate those leverage that it didn't have before, and it couldn't
demonstrate before it never had, which is disrupting the straight-of-formal moves closing it,
taking everything that U.S. and Israel can throw at it and still maintaining that pressure or the straight-of-formal moves. So this is a new geopolitical reality that again, as you say, it could, it gives Iran lasting leverage. Even as part of this deal, you know, the Iranians are saying you're not going to collect payments for ships passing through or moves in this 60-day period, but very much the Iranian rhetoric and this deal leaves an opening for that. They're saying that
the new status quo is going to be, they're going to be collecting service fees, and they're going to
admit it with, with Oman. But, you know, this question of Trump going back to war, I actually think probably, I mean, you know, A the Iranians can't trust them at all. Obviously, he's attacked, he left the JCPOA, he attacked them twice during negotiations, and they're not
“trusting in metal. So this deal, that's why I'm kind of skeptical or I'm not bullish that this is”
going to actually lead to this broader nuclear deal. This is kind of a temporary arrangement for now, but it achieves some interests on both sides. I mean, Trump just wants a straight-of-formal moves open, you know, gas, the average gas price in America was almost $5 a gallon just a couple of weeks ago, and, and, you know, all the, an inflation went back to like, you know, as bad as it was under Biden, you know, during the Ukraine war, and so all these bad economic consequences that, as you say,
was going to have a big consequence for the midterm. Now, if Trump wants to restart this war ahead of the midterms, those consequences are going to come back fast, but it very well could be that this is a temporary arrangement to, you know, push past the midterms, and then, you know, potentially try to restart, I mean, they've already attacked Iran twice, they've already started,
you know, this war twice, you know, maybe third time, you know, they could be thinking third
times a charm, and that's definitely what the most hawkish groups and D.C. are saying, like, people like Mark Dobowitz of the new conservative pro-Israel foundation for defense of democracies, he's basically saying, you know, third time the charm, try to, you know, do it again. So,
“but, you know, even that, I think there's a new reality at play, even then the straight-of-formals,”
and Iran is going to be rebuilding its capabilities, and all this money that they are already getting, they're going to get these oil wavers, they're going to get their frozen assets. So, it's going to be a new geopolitical dynamic, and I think overall, the U.S. hand is weaker, vis-a-vis Iran now than it was before the war. And, you know, what happens next year, if there's discussion about another war or the negotiations of the nuclear deal continue,
J.D. Vance is starting to run for President and Ernest, and he's really not going to want to be associated with those positions. Sina Tusey, really good to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on. Thanks for having me. This is great.
