This is the Daily Blast from the New Republic, produced and presented by the ...
I'm your host Greg Sargent.
“These magas shrinking before our very eyes.”
In recent days, Donald Trump unleashed more tirades about ex-all eyes in the maga movement who have criticized them over the war and other things. Trump's own polster added more on a new interview, with both saying Trump's critics don't count as maga anymore. In a sense, they're both saying that you will get ex-communicated if your devotion to Trump
is not absolute. The real message here seems to be quite clearly that maga really is a cult. This captures so much about this moment, Trump's deepening on popularity, the fracturing of his coalition, and the tenuousness of magas future as it keeps throwing out big voices. We're talking about all of it with new Republic staff writer Perry Bacon, who has a great
new piece on the global right turning on Trump. Perry, good to have you on. Good to see you Greg, thanks for having me. To Donald Trump exploded in self-pity and megalomania on truth, social, and this one had something special.
He said this, quote, "I have among the best poll numbers I have ever had and why should and I, all the country does is win," closed quote, "then Trump attacks maga critics this way." quote, "I hear Megan Kelly Tucker Carlson and Candice Owens are fading fast. Their numbers are terrible.
They were fake maga and now they've been exposed." Perry, we used to joke that magas would ever Trump says it is, but here he's making that like really clear. Anyone who dares to criticize him is fake maga. What do you make of that?
I mean, very explicit, as you said, we've been talking about whether maga is a movement or an ideology or something else, or just Donald Trump, and I've written and used
that phrase to mean other things, but Donald Trump is saying what I've always thought
with is that maga is Donald Trump and will be gone the moment he's off the scene, whatever that is. Yeah, absolutely.
“By the way, on Trump's claim that his polls are as good as ever, guess what?”
That's not true. One set of polling averages that you noted in your piece has a approval at 38% to 58%. Some 20 points underwater. He's worse on the economy in many polls. CNN had a 31% and his approval on inflation, a 27% which is just extraordinary.
The issue of voters care most about Perry, what's your general sense of where public opinion is on Trump right now? As we record, he seems to be announcing some sort of deal with Iran, I guess. I think maybe he gets a couple points out of that, or maybe not. What do you think?
I think the question for him is, like, there's a core of Republicans who are at probably
35 to 40% of people who are hardcore Republicans, always what we're Republican.
Can you get below that norm number in this era? If you remember, there's two times this happened where President got below that. George W. Bush got to the high 20s, low 30s, at the end of his administration. It's that to Hurricane Katrina, after the Iraq war, and after the economic meltdown. So those were big events that happened.
And Trump got to low 30s right after the January 6th insurrection when pretty much everybody in the world, including Mitch McConnell, that's where Republicans were criticizing. So can he give below 35? I don't know. And I would have said a war that goes poorly in last a long time, but this war maybe is not that long and is maybe going to ensue. But I think that's the one thing that, you know, he's probably, I think he's probably
getting near his lowest peak, but it's with lowest possible number, it's probably in the 36 to 38 range. Well, I want to highlight some quotes from Trump's pollster, Jim McLaughlin, he talked to political. I'm going to quote one of them.
He said this, the base doesn't consider a Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly or a Candace Owens a conservative anymore. Coastal. Perry, that's so revealing. And these are people I want to stress this who criticize Trump for going to war, which
absolutely does betray his promise to voters.
“That's what Trump was supposed to represent to Trump voters.”
No more wars, whereas Kamala Harris was supposed to be the Liz Chady's Chil or whatever and, you know, the candidate of the globalists and the warmongering establishment in DC. But for pointing that out, they've been declared non-maga. I think that's a window into what Trump and his pollster actually think of his voters. They really believe that those voters will think whatever thought Trump tells them to, right?
Yes, and to be fair to them, they have some evidence of that that's true. Remember, there are polls in 2016 that show Republicans used to pretty much be opposed
To Russia.
And then, they, a lot of them started approving a Russia once Trump.
They used to say, we don't want an adulterer as president and then they changed their mind about that. So, the idea that the base is with Trump supporters and the base believes whatever Trump said that day is pretty, what's happened the last 10 years, most days, Republicans rewire their opinions about policy, you know, not the sort of moderate Republican part of it that's
sort of 10% of people who vote Republican, but they're not mega. But that sort of core base has moved wherever he's gone when he adores to make the primary, they immediately go up in the polls like, this has been a bit of a cult-like support for him.
“So, his pollsters saying something that I think is maybe, I'm sure the average Trump”
voter would not say, I do whatever Trump says, but they have acted that way for the last 10 years. Yeah, and of course, as we all know, people who cover this stuff as relentlessly as you and I do, unfortunately for us, I guess. This is not exclusive to Republican voters by any means, voters tend to develop their
allegiances on identity grounds, policy isn't that important to them. They say that they support this or that policy, sometimes, as a statement of identity and allegiance, you're aware of this. But this does look like something a little different to me. I think it's fair to say that it's as bad as it's ever been with this group.
Don't you think? Yeah, I mean, given an example, people often follow the guidance of their political leaders. A good example was in 2012, I think, I think the majority of Republican Americans oppose gay marriage. Then, it's Barack Obama, a respected person who's president, but also whereas very respected
among African Americans, says, I'm for gay marriage and immediately the majority of the shift that people's views, they read thought the issue because of a leader in his case. I'm making this point only because you've talked about the political science of this, but I don't think Barack Obama ever said, whatever, whatever Democratic beliefs are whatever
“I think that hour, the Democratic base is whatever I think and he would never said racial”
mad el, Chris Hayes and Joy Reid are not part of the Democratic base, which is essentially what you're saying, if you're saying Tucker and so on, don't count.
And so you've never, again, Democratic voters, you know, a lot of my friends, will follow
what a bite in their AOC or a Bernie or a Warren, said, that won't deny that, but that's said, those people also tend to speak in terms of accuracy and normalcy and so on. So, if you're a Democrat, you might be modeling yourself after people, but those people believe in Democratic norms and elections and results and so on. That's such a good point.
I hadn't even thought of it, but obviously, Barack Obama, if you did with his progressive critics, a lot, during his two terms, I mean, we remember all that, they would rip him apart over all kinds of things and even didn't himself, but he would not usually sort of go on. He would never go on Twitter and trash them and say they're not real liberals, which is what
we're just seeing now. Yeah. Right.
He would never say I am the movement, whatever, whatever the equivalent of magas on the Obama
side. And you know, there's an irony here that's probably worth highlighting, which is that Obama's Republican critics absolutely portrayed him as a cult leader to his followers fairly relentlessly. It was a really big refrain during the Obama years. And in fairness, you know, there was a lot of adoration for Obama, no question, but it's
just sort of weirdly ironic that they love that criticism of Trump and Trump is explicitly saying that I tell my voters what to think period and of story. He's invoking the idea that he should be compared to Jesus Christ. This is something I never would have thought Republican voters would have been for before. So yes.
I would love to see some polling on that. How do you anticipate that, Shavey? I think probably what we'll see is that evangelicals overwhelmingly support him trashing the Pope, maybe Catholic voters, I'm not so sure. What do you think?
I mean, the fact that J.D. Vance, who is not, you know, usually conciliatory, has been giving some comments that, you know, I respect the Pope, but we disagree. His comments have not been as sharp as usual. These people are very conservative and attack everyone, but I think they're aware that attacking the Pope is probably not smart in part because it doesn't just offend Christians.
It doesn't just offend like Catholics in the United States. It also offends Catholics in Europe, many of whom were Trump's allies, leaders in places like Italy, and Jeremy, like this, the far right on the conservatives in Europe that Trump wants to be aligned with also do not want to see him bash the Pope because the Pope is fairly popular in many European countries.
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Use code DSR 26 for 25% off discount on sign up at the DSR network.com. That's code in DSR 26 at the DSR network.com/by. Thank you, and enjoy the show. Right, and we should probably add that among those constituencies that these far right leaders in Europe rely on Trump himself is very unpopular.
Yes, this is a, this is a key thing. We're seeing more, you know, there was a piece in the
financial times in which Boris Johnson was criticizing Trump in which Neil for Nigel
“for Raj was I think we're seeing for the first time did like the far right leaders who”
agree with Trump on immigration that they're, their politicians first and they want to win elections that they're job and they're seeing that, oh, Trump is very unpopular in my country. I have to, this is myself from him. So I think that's happening more and more abroad. Yeah, and your pace made that point really well. I want to get to that in the second first. I want to highlight one more quote from Trump's pollster, Jim McLaughlin, he says,
there are no real divisions among the GOP MAGA base. They overwhelmingly support President Trump and his policies, close quote, Perry, I just don't understand this spin. His people keep saying that the MAGA chorus with Trump. So there, but so a lot like what about the young voters and non-white working class voters, the voters that Trump won in 2024, what about independence, he's losing these groups in huge numbers over the war and other things.
How does MAGA elect people without those voters? They're not exactly MAGA, but MAGA needs them, right? I guess the question is this, can MAGA survive if it keeps getting wittled down to a more and more fanatical core? Right, because a part of this is a lot of pollsters will ask, first of all, are you part of MAGA? And then they will second ask, do you approve of Trump? So if you, in some ways, like, and they're only, and so the people who say
they're part of MAGA, that means they're Trump voters. So we're not, you know, it's like saying, you know, it's not really telling us more than that. And when we're seeing is like that, if you're in the core 30% of people who say, I didn't know if I was MAGA, Trump's a group was 90% of them. But remember, Trump got 50% of the vote. The MAGA group is 30%, 35%. There's that big 15% of, as you're referring to some Latino, some African
Americans who moved, moved, moved from the Democratic Republican, some people who are independent. So there's a lot, right now, if you look at the polls in North Carolina, if the polls
in Ohio, if you look at the polls in Alaska, that's the problem is you have these people
who are Republican voters are Warren 20, 24 at least, who are not MAGA and who do not like where the prices are going, do not like inflation, do not like this interview Ron
“War, and do not like all the madness of Trump being himself. And I think that's the core”
of it that they've got to be worried about. And the pollster, I think, is saying, is only saying the base is with us, but neither party's base alone can win elections. You have to have those other people in it. Well, that's a really good point about the Senate map. And I want to ask you a little more about it. Obviously, the Senate map is tough for Democrats. They need to flip for these
seats, basically, that are in really tough territory. But as you point out, for Republicans to hold on to those seats in some of these states, they need a large chunk of non-MAGA. And in these states, it looks like there's really a fairly strong desire for a check on Trump. It doesn't take much for a non-MAGA voter who voted for Trump because of inflation to say, you know, this guy isn't delivering on my stuff. And he's out of control. And okay,
this Democrat who's running here has a strong personality and is, you know, distinguished him or herself from the national party and has deep ties to the state. And so forth,
“it's not that hard for that group of voters to get over to supporting that Democrat, right?”
Can you talk about this dynamic?
Never going to say Democrats are going to win Texas because people say that all the time
it never happens. But that's it. Even on a place like Texas, Trump is a pretty is net unpopular. And so therefore if you're Taloreco, you probably aren't going to win, but there's room to go there because if Trump is 50% of Texans disapprove of Trump, that's your potential electorate. You know, a lot of them are Republican voters. Like if you look at Alaska, Ohio, Texas, the Democratic candidates are going to have to win some actual
Republicans. And may in North Carolina you can probably just win the election on Democrats alone. No fun is very narrowly between the parties. But I think in those three places, Democrats that we have to win something like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, probably two of those. And those are going to be tough. But every, like if the election were today, I think you would be really close because this year on story, most Republican, you know, a lot
Of Republicans don't support this either.
would be in danger because they have done, they've not only, you know, messed up the economy, but they've went into foreign policy and way voters don't agree with. But I'm assuming Trump is going to get out of this war in part because he sees the same poll numbers out. Yeah. And they're a strong Democratic candidate. It's in a number of these states. And North Carolina, I think, is a really interesting tell. The fact that it really does
look like Democrats are on track to win there. You know, it's going to be super tight.
“It's North Carolina. But that is a key tell, don't you think?”
Yeah. And I think one thing to keep in mind is like, we really are talking about, is there a Democratic majority in 2029? That's the really key win. You know, my hope at least would be there's a Democratic president, a Democratic house in Democratic City in 2029. And that happens in 2027. That isn't really, that's not big for policy. So if you, if the Democrats get two or three seats this in 2026 and then one or two more, that ends up
getting you the 50, 51. And that's the key thing here. So that's kind of what I'm looking
for. I'm curious, I'm made. I'm curious about. I'm a little nervous about. I grew a platinum issue. I'm a little nervous about his bio. If he's ready for primetime, but people like him up there so far. So this is why it's so baffling to me that Trump and his people keep spinning. Oh, magas with him because like so what? That's not going to matter for the battle for the house and the battle for the Senate. Anyway, onto your piece, you
looked at how some of the leaders of the global writer now distancing themselves from Trump. And I guess the main factors of the unpopularity of the war, pretty much everywhere, the rise and energy prices, the feud with the Pope. And so forth. And you made this great point, which is that this will impact domestic politics here, lending a boost to the opposition to Trump in the US. As you put it, Trump is now isolated and diminished. Can
“you talk about that? Well, I think the key thing is like we've had like, we're 10 years”
into this. So if you're a liberal, if you're a Perry bake and are Greg Sargent and Nancy Pelosi, of course you criticize Trump. You know, they have a phrase for you. You have Trump derangement syndrome. I think that's all silly. But that's it. Those of us who who have been, who have been correctly criticizing Trump for 10 years, we're not saying anything new. And so in a certain way, we're repeating ourselves. But when the Pope, or
when a leader of the reform party in the UK, or when a leader of the AFD party in Germany, when these people who are conservatives who don't like, who, unfortunately, oppose immigration and who like a lot of Trump's policy ideas, when these people are criticizing him, it's a different story entirely. Because these, those are not like ridiculous liberals. Those are conservatives. Like, we have a Republican party in the United States now, where you
never hear any criticism of Trump because being a Republican functionally means, being
“his liking Trump. But conservatives abroad do not have the behavior in their not, and I think that matters.”
And look, there's no way to say this up, whatever the Pope says is news. And so in a certain sense, the Pope criticizing you is a big story. And the fact that the Pope is repeatedly criticizing Trump is a very important dynamic of politics. Well, let's tie the salt together. If Trump is already losing huge swaths of the coalition that elected him in 2024, and he and his top generals are going to expel everyone who disagrees with him or doesn't
grant him unquestion loyalty. Where do they go from here? I mean, I guess that you can probably win the governorship and the Senate races in 25 states, just as the Republican base. So I think that's part of what it is, is just they, they don't seem to really, I mean, part of it is like we've credited a lot, but it's not fair to me to Donald Trump's staff actually exactly knows why they write the why they won those
Latino, younger, and black voters in 2024. I think there was kind of an accident and kind of like an anti-income but wave. And so I don't think those voters remember in their coalition
really in the first place. And so I think that as they don't know how to keep those
people because that's not really what they were doing. They sort of accidentally wants new people. And then Trump, for most of these last 10 years, has governed as if the base is the country. And so he's just doing what he does. He's not actually a great politician. We saw in 2018 anytime he's in office and people are paying attention to him. The Republicans lose. Absolutely right. And by the way, the war is really, really the type of issue that's
driving those groups away from Trump really, really fast and really, really hard. Folks, make sure to check out Perry's show over at tnr.com. It's called Right Now with Perry Bacon. Perry, great to talk to you. Thanks for coming on. Thanks. Thanks, Robin. Great.
