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Democrats appear to have flipped a state legislative district in western Pennsylvania that Donald Trump won less than two years ago by 18 points. This has big implications for the midterms and for hidden reasons, it's really a reason for optimism.
It's no accident that this comes as Trump has hit yet another series of new lows in polling,
and we have a bunch of new data that strongly suggests things are starting to trend in the Democrats' direction in a new way. We're going to work through all of it with Michael Cohen, who has a good piece on his sub-stack, truth and consequences, arguing that the big story of this moment is GOP extremism. Michael, good to have you on.
Great to be here, Greg. Thanks for having me. So in this Pennsylvania state legislative district north of Pittsburgh and Butler County, Democrat Brandon Dukes is slightly ahead of Republican Scott Tempo, this district back Trump by 18 and 2024.
It's voted reliably Republican for decades. What of caution here, the AP is not yet called the race, but either way, the fact that this district moved by this much is a big story for Democrats. Michael, you're thoughts on that? Yeah, it's actually a continuation of a good story of Democrats, which is that the vast majority
of special elections since Trump was elected in 2025, Democrats have dominated and often by double digits.
This is yet one more place where Democrats are overperforming, and the reality is that this
kind of overperformance and special elections is usually a pretty good indication of where things are headed in the midterm elections. You saw this in 2018, Democrats doing very well on special elections and then winning house majority in November. I mean, that's kind of where these things are leading.
However, I got to say that the level of overperformance is actually greater than we seen before. Again, you mentioned 19 points yesterday in Pennsylvania. This keeps happening, and it should tell us something about where the electorate is right now.
Absolutely, and there's actually an example from 2018 that applies very well, recall that before the 2018 midterms, Democrat Connor Lam won a house special election in a Pennsylvania district in southwestern Pennsylvania. Trump had carried that district two years earlier in 2016 by like 20 points. And so this was a big shift, and it was a harbinger of the midterm blowout in 2018 that
was to come.
“Now, I think for a bunch of reasons this midterm probably won't match the huge pickup”
Dems made in house seats in 2018, but still, I think we should note that at least three very competitive house races are in Pennsylvania. And I see this as good news again, even though it hasn't been called, the shift itself as good news in a state that's going to really help decide control of the house, right? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting, you make a great observation that, you know, Democrats are
likely to as well as in 2018, it's because there are fewer seats that are competitive. But when you look at the raw numbers, you look at where they are in the generic ballot, I actually think they might be in better position, just with fewer seats that are able for them to win. However, if the trend lines continue where they're going, and Trump's approval rating remains
where it is in the mid 30s at this point, you know, you could see a situation where the bottom just falls out for Republicans. And you see a huge shift toward Democrats, which means that a lot of places we haven't thought are competitive could be competitive. I will point out that the 50 plus one site has the generic house ballot matchup right now
at Democrats plus six. That's still not quite where we need it to be for Democrats to win the Senate, but it seems to be moving right now, it seems like Democrats are gaining in this generic house ballot matchup.
“And I think it's worth focusing on this too, the electorate in midterms is different from”
the electorate in presidential years. A new U-Gov poll really gets at that. It has Dems up by seven points in the generic house ballot matchup, which is perfectly consistent
With the averages showing it at six that we just mentioned.
But the U-Gov poll has Democrats leading by 23 points among those who are extremely enthusiastic
about voting. And as you know, being a veteran of following politics, Michael midterm election, electorates tend to be highly educated, engaged voters. And so there are lots and lots of signs that Republicans could kind of sit out this election, especially without Trump on the ballot.
Can you talk about that dynamic? I think that's the biggest issue to be, we should be looking at between now and election day is these voters, public and voters who are not happy with Trump, but who are as of now still voting Republican. There's this group, I guess, called double haters, in which they don't like them very
party, but they're not happy with the party, with Trump.
And if those voters shift against the GOP, that's when you see a real bloodbath.
I just want it.
“I mean, I think it's important to put the point this out, that it's still very hard”
to notice to do this, we're still talking about a place like the Pick Alaska, right? Trump's one, all three of his elections there by double digits. Now you're looking at situation, but Democrats could put it to win a Senate seat. Right now, they look like they're pretty well positioned to do that. That's a pretty crazy outcome.
In Texas, Democrats have generally done, you know, okay, I mean, okay, at least in the red state, they haven't lost by a big emergency, they've lost elsewhere. So you could see that being to shift, but it's really hard for any party to in so many places where they have done poorly, to all of a sudden, overperform, and that's what Democrats need to do.
But again, the trend lines seem to be moving in that direction. You brought up the Alaska Senate race, so I will point out that the non-partisan primary that was just held in Alaska, the Democrat, Mary, Peltola, got 48% of the vote, the leading Republican, Dan Sullivan, got 42% of the votes. And so God, that is a reason for optimism right there.
I mean, she's beating the Republican right at this moment. Now, I don't want to get too optimistic, but if you're looking at, you know, Alaska really being in play, and now it looks like it's really within reach for Democrats, you can start to see a path to the majority, and so, you know, I agree with you that Michigan heavily complicates the picture, however, but that is a real cause for optimism, Peltola being.
It's not just if told being up, it's not just Sullivan being, you know, in the low 40s, a combat running for reelection. That's usually a pretty bright red light that's just your serious trouble to win the election.
“The thing with Peltola is that she's one statewide before, right?”
She did this in with 2018, I believe she won the statewide, and she won again in 2012, and she lost in '22, in a bad environment for Democrats. So I just think that she is, you know, she has a track record in Alaska, Sullivan appears to be on popular incumbent, the national environment is just terrible for Republicans, so yeah, and she's leaking every poll.
So it does seem like she's got a chance, but again, I got to face the second and go, you
have to remember, though, these are red states. These are red states. And for Democrats, I mean, you can see a certain Democrats win two or three sentences in red states. That is right.
I mean, I think we have to step back here and think just realize for a second how unusual a situation we're in right now, where you have this many Republican seats, places where Trump, again, won by double digits to many cases, are competitive. This is just a very unusual in our modern political environment. Keep in mind right now, for example, there's not a single Democratic Senator in the state
that Trump won three straight elections, right? There's one Republican Senator in the state that Kamala Harris won in 2024, and that would be Maine, and as Susan Collins, and she looks like she might lose. So, you know, for Democrats to be competitive in Iowa, in Ohio, in Alaska, in Texas, states that, again, win for Trump all three times is really unusual.
“And I think speaks to just how deeply unpopular he is as president and how much his”
and popularity has hurt the Republican brand. If you're enjoying this episode and want to get even more out of the DSR network, you need to check out our sub-stack. The DSR network sub-stack is the absolute best way to follow deep state radio, the DSR daily, where it's matter, need to know, sila consciousness, AI, energy, and climate, and
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The real business idea is there, but we'll start with the program you're goin...
In addition, the YONOS KI-App on side-builder sets their ID, fast and simple patch-up,
on app, website or digital tools, the KI-boughts and with only one click-it-s-life. Domain and sicheres hosting of European Surveign Inclusive, now join us at your promo. On YONOS.de/app, YONOS, digital and your site. Well, that brings us to Trump's numbers.
We had a new Reuters poll this week that has Trump's approval rating down to a dismal 33% 64% disapprove. Now, it's possible that Donald Trump's approval isn't down to 33%. It isn't quite that low, possibly. But note this, Trump has just hit his lowest point ever in the New York Times average
of polls, which has him at 37% approving with 59% disapproving. The Times average is kind of conservative. It has a lot of data in it for him to be 22 points underwater by those averages. Suggests, maybe, that's a 33% that Reuters has might not be far from where he really is now.
What do you think? I mean, it's hard with polling these days because you have a lot of lousy polling out there. I mean, if you look at sort of the time, breaks it down to their select pollsters and their other pollsters and months like pollsters, he's doing rather poorly.
“But I think it's more interesting about his numbers, it's not just that he is unpopular.”
It's that he's really unpopular. You look at his strong disapproval. It's generally flooring around 50%, with the somewhat disapproval in the single digits. And people who don't like Trump really don't like Trump. And I think it's a little bit unusual.
I mean, George Bush, in his end of his second term, was this unpopular.
He was actually more unpopular than the 20s. But this is, that was not before a midterm election. It was before a presidential election, 2008, which Democrats did exceptionally well. So I do think that the Trump factor here is what is driving all of this. But one other thing, I want to pick up on what you said about the strong disapproval of
Trump because I think people missed the importance of this. It's not that unusual to see a poll in which 50% of the country strongly disapproves of Donald Trump. That is unbelievable. And again, if you think about that in the context of the midterm electorate, then it becomes
even more meaningful. Midterm electorates tend to favor the out party, their, their made up of more engaged voters, the voters who come out in a presidential race, maybe for a Donald Trump don't come out as much. So the strong disapproval drives the turnout for the out party in a big way.
“I think those two things together, they really have synergy and could mean a lot.”
You raise a really interesting point here. I think that people, people comment on, which is that when Trump's not on the ballot, Republican candidates tend to underperform. So it's, it's not just these unpopular, it's that without him on the ballot, all those Trump voters who turn out for him are not going to turn out, I mean, traditionally they
haven't turned out. And so if that happens again, it makes the Republican challenge that much greater. Maybe this is how we should think about it. To the people who approve of Trump, at least, whoever's left that still approves of him, Trump's not on the ballot, right?
But to the people who disapprove of Trump, Trump is on the ballot, right, that's right. They're going, right. They're going out to vote against Donald Trump. He is on the ballot. They see this election as an opportunity to a register.
They're profound disapproval of the president and they're profound disapproval of the direction of the country. And be put a check on Donald Trump. So you put all that together and it starts to look like even more of a perfect storm, I think.
I agree. I think it's exactly right. I mean, I, I, look, I thought, I would've said to you a year ago that I thought this would be a bad midterm.
Because look, midterms are always bad for the party in power.
It's historically always loose seats. And, you know, you could say it would be worse for Republicans because Trump's not in the ballot. You don't have those occasional Trump voters. So this is always going to be a rough cycle for Republicans.
“I think what's made it potentially an historically bad cycle is just how unpopular Trump”
has become. And frankly, that Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot with some of these really lousy nominees. Yeah, and, and, you know, just allowing the point you raised earlier, which is that things could start shifting the other way for Republican voters to come home, you know, that's
all very possible. There's still a long way to go here. Anything can happen. But there are a lot of things falling into place right now. CNN's Harry Anton caught something really interesting, which is that Trump is absolutely
bleeding Hispanic men. Anton pointed out that Trump won that demographic Hispanic men by 10 points in 2024.
Now in CNN polling, his net approval among them is minus 41 points.
And so I think this is significant because it's like another way in which the Trump coalition
is falling apart. Hispanic men were the big success story for the GOP in 2024. Reims and Reims of Punetry were produced that said that this shows that there was a major realignment underway. It's all gone now, Hispanic men, according to Anton, favor the Democrats by 20 points and
Anton thinks this will have a quote unquote massive impact on the midterms. In fact, he called the numbers bonkers and they are bonkers. I mean, that's just crazy stuff. No, they are. And if you look at, I mean, you could go back to last year the off year elections in New
Jersey and Virginia.
“Some of the biggest overperformance by Democrats was in Hispanic district, Hispanic areas, right?”
The dropoff in Hispanic support for Trump has been extraordinary.
And to your point, I mean, you said that's Trump coalition. It was a coalition of convenience, right? It was the 2024 coalition that the Trump won with, with people who are upset with Biden, upset with Harris, upset with the say of the country. But those Hispanic voters have just, I think more than any other demographic group have
a band in the Republican Party. And frankly, one of the reasons I think white text is actually why I think, tell me what's the chance of winning is because the dropoff in support among Hispanics in Texas has been extraordinary. And that, there are a huge part of the electorate there.
And that alone could be enough for Taloriko to win. So I agree with you.
I mean, I think that is an under-appreciated part of this that look Hispanic voters are localized
in just a few states, Florida, California, Texas. But in the places where they are, where they vote, in big numbers, they can make a big difference.
“And I think Texas is the most interesting place to see how much that bleeding of Hispanic”
support really hurts the Republican Party. Yes. And I think we should point out here as well that the successes that Republicans had in some of those South Texas counties that are very Hispanic heavy were kind of seen as the locus of this realignment for Trump and Republicans.
And so for now, those Texas Hispanics to be shifting back towards Democrats, once again shows how absurd it was to read Trump's 1.5 point victory in 2024 as a major realignment moment. Right? Don't give me started on topic.
I mean, I just, it makes me crazy. The, all of the, the punitive tree about 2024, I think just kind of miss the mark to a large extent. This was a 1.5, as you said, point victory, one of the lowest marks in the victory and presidential election in recent memory, and, you know, it was one that was really a backlash
to the party in power.
“And look, we've been going through this cycle every two years.”
Right? 2016 because they was a backlash to Democrats, 2018, a backlash to Trump, 2020, a backlash against Trump again, 2022, a backlash against Biden, 2024, backlash against Biden, 26, a backlash against Trump. This is how these cycles go.
We were living in a period of extreme anti-incompensary of anti-system politics. And, you know, it was not reasonable to believe that Trump was able to hold this coalition also because he's, you know, he hasn't seem to care about politics. He cares about going after his political enemies, and he cares about his little pet projects. He is not a politician who seems interested at all in growing the Republican party, in helping
it prosper. I don't even think he cares. I really don't think he cares at all. And, you know, that is a problem for the party, and he has pushed them the Republicans in the House and Senate to fall through on a agenda that he is unpopular.
And he has overreached, right? He acted as though he had this huge mandate and that led him to pursue this policy and immigration enforcement that has created these enormous backlash, not just among Hispanics, but among the whole host of Americans. He went forward with a terrorist thinking has had broad support.
Guess what, that's creating a huge backlash and in place like Iowa could actually cost Republicans, the Governor's ship, the Senate, and a couple of House seats. So I do think that, you know, we really do need to go back and look at 2024 and recognize that this was a response of a backlash to to Harris and to Biden, but it was not creating a new coalition, not by any means.
So just to review all this very quickly, there's been a huge shift in a Pennsylvania state legislative district towards Dems. Mary Peltola is looking very good in Alaska. Hispanics are abandoning Trump in enormous numbers. Trump's approval is down at 33% in a new poll and down at 37% in the New York Times averages.
And Democrats are plus six or plus seven in the generic ballot and are winning by double digits among very, very engaged voters. Those pieces all together, they paint a pretty good picture, I think, Michael.
They do.
I mean, I look, and again, we have two months to go until the election and it's easy
“for, I think, for Democrats to get really excited about where things are going, but I think”
as it did, the trend lines point in one direction, and that is for Republicans, Democrats do well. At this point, I think the chance Democrats take the House, I would be stunning if they did not end up taking the House. And the Senate, again, that it's in play, is really, it says something a lot about how
where the direction of American politics has gone. But I think Democrats need to understand something that if they do well in midterms is not because they have convinced Americans, they have the best plan for fixing the economy, or they have the best plan for health care, or they're better in immigration. They will have one because they are not the total Trump in the Republican Party.
“That is the source of their success over the past year or so, and will, I believe, be the”
source of their success in November. But I think we have to be very clear as to what's happening here. This is an anti-income and wave, okay? It's not a pro-democratic wave.
Well, you know how politics says, man, the second things go your way, you think that it's
a realignment, just like they did. Right, exactly. That's exactly it. And I think both parties get into huge danger when they overanalyzer over determined what happens in an election.
Right? I mean, a lot of what happens in November is going to have nothing to do with the campaigns for Democrats in one. Right? I mean, some of it will, but have a lot more to do with the fact that Republicans are
in popular. That's the biggest thing. And I think Democrats need to understand that, and they need to have a plan for that. They need to plan for that when they go into 20, 20, to understand that they haven't made the case to Americans.
Although having said that, because you know, on popular Trump is, this whole cycle feels like 2016,000,000,000,000,000,000.
2016 Democrats had a huge victory in the second mid-Chairnford for W, and you're going to
owe it to you. You have the greater session. You have the war, people are upset about that. Democrats even had a bigger victory in 2008. I think that's kind of where things are going.
“But as you remember, 2010, what happened to Democrats?”
They got their buscings. So be careful. That's what I'd say. All extremely well said, folks, if you enjoyed this conversation, make sure to check out Michael Cohen's Substack Truth and Consequences.
Michael awesome to talk to you. Thanks for coming on. Always a pleasure. Thank you for having me, Greg. Hosting of Europäischen Zörfern Inclusive.
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