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Donald Trump just endorsed Maga Nuchab Ken Paxton in the Texas GOP primary for Senate. This all but ensures a weaker GOP nominee which improves democratic odds in Texas and makes a dem Senate takeover a little bit more likely. In fact, Republican senators were furious about what they regarded as a betrayal.
“But Trump made things clear in his endorsement, Paxton got it because he was loyal to Trump, the only thing that matters.”
Too bad Republicans, this is the guy you hitched yourselves to. So does this mean Texas actually is getable for Democrats, or is heartbreak looming once again? Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic operative who has worked on numerous Texas races and knows the state well, is going to walk us through all of it. Sawyer, thanks for coming on. Good to be with you, Greg.
So in a long, truth social brand, Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas, Trump called Paxton someone who has,
"Always been extremely loyal to me and our amazing Maga movement."
Trump also cited Paxton's support for ending the Senate, Phil Abuster, to pass the save act, which is a disgusting voter suppression bill, and Trump ripped Senator John Coranan, the current GOP incumbent, as quote, "not supportive of me when times were tough." Soyer, here reaction to that. Yeah, I mean, you said it up top, this is all about loyalty, right? You know, Paxton's loyalty to Trump in the first sentence of that multi-paragraph statement goes on to talk about the filibuster,
and this is kind of coming up into context of him wanting to build this ballroom, and overturn the parliamentarians ruling on the ballroom funding. So clearly, this was all about Trump's own personal wishes for this race. He wanted a sick of him in this race, that he could control, that he could manipulate.
“And that's what he's going to get with Paxton.”
You know, it's interesting that you talk about the larger context legislatively because Senator John Coranan, we should tell people,
as opposed doing away with the filibuster, and so anybody who won't wreck the system entirely for Trump has to go, basically, as the situation.
Yeah, and, you know, Paxton, Coranan, rather, is someone who is voted with Trump 99% of the time. I mean, this is somebody who goes out of his way to post these kind of up-sequvious subservient post pictures of Trump and holding Trump's book, constantly trying to flatter Trump, and voting with Trump 99.2% of the time in the Senate. I mean, and he was not loyal enough to Trump. This is somebody who did not go far enough in his loyalty, his, you know, up-sequviousness to Trump.
And, you know, on the other hand, you have someone like Paxton who, I mean, this is a guy who travels down to Mara Logo, as often as he possibly can. He's probably scheduling tea times around Trump's tea time, just so he can, you know, have a chance of running into him on the links. I mean, it's pathetic how these Republican primaries have essentially just become contests and who can, you know, bootlick Trump the most, and in Texas, you know, in a state as known for kind of independent, you know,
these Western cowboys who are, you know, they stand up for their values and they fight for the things that they believe, and you have two, two men essentially competing for who can, who can lick Trump's boots the best, and clearly Paxton has come away winning that contest. And he very consciously set out to do that. Punch ball news reporter Andrew Desadario posted on Twitter that this is the quote, "night mayor's scenario" for Senate Republicans.
“Sawyer, can you give us the case for why Paxton is weaker as a candidate than corn in this?”
Due to the corruption, the extremism and everything else? Yeah, I mean, with Paxton, you have an extremely vulnerable candidate who is, you know, not only disliked by a lot of independence and Democrats in the state, but also by a fair number of Republicans. He's somebody who has a disapproval rating, he's been under water on his approval rating for many, many years. He's somebody who's been impeached by a Republican controlled legislature.
He's somebody who has been federally criminally indicted on multiple felony counts, security, securities fraud and bribery and many other things.
And, you know, he's somebody who has intentionally gone out of his way to mak...
At a time when I think Democrats are starting to turn those coalitions back around into our favor.
“It's only going to play into Democrats' hands in November. I think that polling, you know, head to head polling between Paxton and corn in as who would be the best better nominee.”
I don't necessarily think reflects the depths of a campaign of vigorous campaign between two nominees where you're going to have negative ads running constantly. Democrats are going to be able to weaponize Paxton's record in Paxton's personality in the state. You know, way better than it would have done with corn in as the nominee.
It sure looks that way. Let's talk about the Democratic candidate James Taloreco.
He's running on an open profession of his Christian faith combined with a promise to get beyond the acrimony of the Trump years with kindness. And I guess goodwill toward the opposition really understanding toward the opposition empathy.
“The polls are showing a dead heat between Taloreco and Paxton. So, can you bring us up to date on how Taloreco's campaign has been doing?”
Where is he succeeding? Where is he failing? What does he have to do now? I think Taloreco has done a pretty fantastic job of keeping focused on the issues that I think Texans care about focusing on Trump's record at a time when, you know, Democrats desperately need Trump's negatives to be as high as possible heading into a midterm cycle.
He's not necessarily put his thumb on the scale for either one of these Republican nominees.
He's said that whoever the nominee is, you know, we're going to run the same campaign, we're going to run the same message. But at the same time, I think, you know, Taloreco is jumping for joy today with Trump's endorsement of Paxton. Because this is a man who is going to fire up a lot of the constituencies that Taloreco needs to win while also turning away a lot of voters that I think Republicans desperately need to win. And Christian voters are one of those constituencies. I mean, many will still hold their nose and vote for Paxton, but I think Taloreco is going to be able to peel a significant amount of them off.
You also have Paxton, you know, is this kind of like reviled character within, you know, independent and democratic circles in the state. He's going to be somebody who's going to help Democrats raise a ton of money. He's going to be much easier to contrast with in an November election and the GO TV face. He's the embodiment of Trumpism, Trump politics, which is extremely unpopular across the country. He's going to, you know, turbo charge, turn out among Latino voters and black voters in the state. And he's going to alienate suburban voters, especially, you know, suburban women who text his Democrats need if they're going to assemble a winning coalition.
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[Music] Someone like Paxton is representative of all these traits in Trumpism that everybody hates now. So, the corruption, the rage, the hatred, the worship of Trump at all costs. It seems like Talarico is almost perfectly positioned to use Paxton as a foil precisely because Talarico is running this campaign that is is really almost designed to counter program Trumpism on a very profound level. Is that right, do you think?
I think that's right. And I think, you know, the same qualities that would make Trump want to endorse Paxton are the qualities that are going to turn voters away from Paxton in November.
It's that corruption, that cronyism, it's that relentless focus on Trump hims...
How can I, how can I serve Trump rather than serving the people of Texas?
“That has been the message I think Talarico has led with.”
It's been an overwhelmingly populist message focusing on, you know, corruption, focusing on bringing it back to, you know, a message on working people and what working people need to succeed today. That message was already crystal clear in the Trump era, I think with Paxton as the nominee, you're able to just drive that wedge even further into independent voters and even some moderate Republican voters that I think.
You know, Talarico just in his kind of personality the way he carries himself in his background is able to appeal to much easier than some traditional Democrats would.
Fascinating matchup. We had Republican Senator Lisa Markowski publicly admit that Trump's endorsement will make it harder for Republicans to hold Texas. She told reporters this quote, I think this puts that seat in jeopardy. I mean, you're probably hearing the same thing coming out of the DNC and Democratic circles today. I mean, Democrats have been looking for, you know, looking ahead at this kind of Senate map and, and whether we have the ability to kind of keep a hold on the Senate passed, you know,
passed 2026 fast 2028. The map has not been looking good for us. I think with somebody like Paxton as the nominee, I think we have kind of the perfect storm in a place like Texas. You have a very unpopular, very corrupt, very easily to contrast nominee on the Republican side. You have a Democratic nominee who does have appeal to independence to even some conservative or, you know, Christian Republican voters in the state you have an extremely unpopular president whose, whose favorability only is dwindling even more every single day.
And you have the coalition that Trump needed to win in 2024, which was an increasing amount of Latino voters and black voters, particularly black and Latino young men, you had young voters turning towards Trump, you had suburban voters turning towards Trump. You had those coalitions have completely reversed themselves. So of course, Texas is in play, this cycle, and you know, I think, of course, is in expensive state. That's one thing that I don't think, you know, a lot of voters necessarily understand about Texas. It takes a lot of money to run accessible campaign in Texas.
That being said, with Paxton as the nominee and Tala Rico able to contrast with him, he's going to be able to raise the amount of money needed to compete in the state and Paxton and corn and flushed millions of dollars down the drain in this primary that Trump waited to endorse for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and left Republicans in the state. And Paxton and corn and flushed millions of dollars down the drain in this primary that Trump waited to endorse for weeks and weeks and weeks and left Republicans in dire straights economically or, you know, financially heading into a GO TV phase of this election.
Right, Trump really screwed the Republican party royally by doing this because these outside groups that are allied with Senate majority leader John Thune have reportedly spent tens of millions of dollars propping up corn and against the Paxton chat.
And now that money's up in flames still, though, I have to say, I keep hearing from Democrats that they're generally pretty worried about the spending disparity.
There's been a lot in the press about that as well.
“We're going to see an immense amount of right wing money in Texas now to try to save this seat against Tala Rico and Democrats, right?”
Will Democrats have the resources to compete? Will they be outspent? Does that matter? I think I think Texas Democrats and particularly the Tala Rico campaign will be able to raise enough money to run a very, very competitive race. I think you'll probably see Tala Rico raise, you know, close to the amount that better work was able to raise in 2018. That was at a very expensive race. I think he raised more money than any Senate candidate at that cycle and maybe even the next cycle after that. I think Tala Rico can raise those kinds of money raised that kind of money, especially with Paxton as the nominee, especially with Democrats looking at the Senate map and needing a state about a ground state like Texas to flip blue if we're going to take back the Senate.
I think Trump just handed Democrats their messaging on a silver platter to invest in a state like Texas. It is going to take major elections like this with lots of spending, you know, lots of organizing across every corner of this state to win.
“And I think, you know, Tala Rico was already already doing pretty well in the fundraising game. The DNC is not doing very well in the fundraising game.”
If that trend continues, I still think Tala Rico can be extremely competitive, but I do think he's going to need some backing from some of the national organizations. And maybe that's not the national party, maybe at some of the organizing organizations, but I think they will have his back as we look ahead to a new member. I know you feel a little burned by 2024 still. You put a lot of money into Kamala Harris and lost what appeared to be a winnable race, but the Senate's really gettable now. I mean, you've got these Republican senators who are furious.
The New York Times reports that they're living, for instance, Senator John Ho...
Yeah, I mean, Trump is on a power trip right now. I mean, he took out those Indiana Republicans who wouldn't redistrict for him. He, you know, then went and took out Bill Cassidy and Louisiana. Now he today, he's trying to take out Thomas Massey and Kentucky. And now he's endorsing Ken Paxton over John Cornean, who was once the Senate Republican Senate whip and was barely lost to John Thun for Senate majority leader. This is a Senator who is very well respected within the Republican conference.
And Trump has already having a difficult time kind of managing control over this very tightly divided Congress. Trump just helped, you know,
just Cassidy, who is the head of the, the help committee in the Senate. And now he's turning an outsting one of the most senior Republicans in the entire conference in John Cornean. That is only going to piss off a lot of these Republican senators who he desperately needs to do things like ignore the parliamentarians ruling or nuke the filibuster to get the certain things that he wants to get done.
“You know, he's clearly on a power trip, but he's leaning in in these very unpopular directions that I think Republicans are starting to like see the the writing on the wall when it when it comes to the midterms.”
And they know that they're headed for a white belt in November if Trump continues in this trend.
So, so here, it seems like the big story here is what you're getting out there when you say that Trump is on this power trip on some fundamental level. What we're seeing here is that Trump simply cannot imagine that he and or Trumpism and maga have become toxic. He is surrounded by sick of ants at all times. He only looks at polls that show him winning. He has his own pollsters telling him he's winning winning winning. He constantly tweets out polls that are just I think basically made up or so. But foolishly cherry pick that they're meaningless point being that Donald Trump is in this information bubble right now where he can't perceive what's happening out in the country with his unpopularity, his toxicity.
For instance, the New York Times poll this week has Trump disapproved of by 70% of independence, 54% strongly. I have not seen numbers like that before.
“And independence are our favoring Democrats in the generic house ballot matchup by 18 points also staggering those are the types of numbers that you need to put something like Texas and play right.”
I think so. I mean, coupled with the kind of coalition turning on Trump that that he had in 2024 latino's black voters young voters. I think coupled with that the independent shift over away from Trump towards Democrats is exactly what I'm talking about when I say a perfect storm is happening in Texas and really that's all being driven by the economy and in Texas. You know, the numbers on the economy are are are interesting. I think the Texas economy has has been a little bit insulated from some of the impacts of the Iran war, for example, the impacts on oil, for example, take a little bit longer to get to Texas than they do to other places.
And so you're only going to see those numbers get worse as this Iran war and global supply crisis continues and that's what we're expecting right.
“And so I think in a state like Texas where you have some of the the highest share of independent voters in the country who are turning against Trump and are having a version to be to candidates like Paxton.”
Candidate like Talariko is poised to pick them up in droves and especially in places like the suburbs outside of those major cities especially suburban women who have seen you know abortion access taken away and now mythopristone access threatened by somebody like Paxton Paxton led that effort. Just the ads write themselves in Texas and I think independent voters are going to see tens of millions of dollars of ads flooding their TVs between now and November of course. There's going to be a lot of misinformation and different disinformation coming from the Paxton side of that equation, but I think Talariko really has a chance to run up the numbers both with his own coalition, but also with independent voters in a way the choice of Paxton by Trump kind of perfectly typifies the degree to which he's in a bubble about his own toxicity.
I mean, it's a total calamity he's threatening Republicans with by picking Paxton, but he's unable to imagine that Paxton who's as magas they get would be toxic just to close this out though let's not be under any illusions.
Texas is Texas which is Texas as you know as well as anyone it's extremely ha...
Why is it so hard for Talariko to get there what is the nightmare scenario for Talariko.
“The difficulty in assembling a winning coalition in Texas is just the sheer size of the state I mean you have to compete in those traditional democratic strongholds of the cities and those Latino communities along the Rio Grande Valley.”
You have to be able to pick up voters in the suburbs and you have to be able to compete in rural areas. The state like Texas though you know it is a fairly conservative state it's a state where Republican voters are still very animated to support their Republican president and our Republican president and Trump is somebody who does electrify the maga base and the maga base is pretty huge in Texas that being said the sheer number of independent voters and the different layers of the coalition that Democrats have to assemble to win is very difficult and so you do need a ton of money not only to reach into every corner of the state but also to be doing that deep outreach into.
Constituencies like Latino voters who are harder to reach and harder to persuade and harder to turn out in.
In general elections so it's a it's an uphill challenge for Talariko.
“I think if he has the money and if he has the kind of national environment with with a very deeply unpopular Trump.”
It's something that he can win and I think by Trump picking Paxton he is elevating corruption at a time when corruption is at the center of our conversation nationally.
I mean we're always we're out talking about the ballroom talking about these payments from the IRS talking about all these stock trading that he's doing.
“Trump is elevating someone like Paxton who is just known for being a corrupt politician.”
At a time when that's going to be not only at the center of the national conversation but it's at the center of Talariko's message as a candidate and so he has the opportunity to reframe this race. To nationalize the race but keep it focused on Texas issues to keep it focused on Texas politicians Texas leadership. If he can do that and he gets the money to do the deep organizing across the state he can win but it is an uphill challenge regardless. And I will add independence absolutely hate corruption so if there were a way to get those independent voters and the numbers he need.
This is the matchup that could do it so it is possible that Trump really screwed himself very rarely here. So you're happy. Awesome to talk to you. Thank you so much. That was super illuminating. Yeah great doctor Greg. [Music]
