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"Nine" "Well" "And" "28 "2

"23 This is Deep State Radio

Coming to you direct from our super secret studio in the 3rd subbasement of the Ministry of Snark in Washington, D.C. and from other

undisclosed locations across America and around the world Hello and welcome to Deep State Radio I am David Rothkopf, your host and this week we are joined by two of our best friends and two of the smartest people we know Adlyus of the Financial Times

“You're just returned from like the mountains aren't you Ed?”

Just down from the Rockies, although you know, flying too and from the Rockies is getting even more difficult with Canadian wildfires I can just amat were you at Aspen were you? at the Aspen Harb Narbing did you like gain some insight that we should all know? I gained insight that all these sort of aging, boomers or gen X's

suddenly experts in football soccer because they were they were crowded into all the games and commenting on tactics and stuff Well, maybe they're just getting ready for their retirement we can only hope And we are also joined by up max boot counts on foreign relations columnist for Washington Post Harry doing max

Hang in there offering offering commiserations to head over England speaking of soccer England failing to to make the final year again although obviously they did a a ton better than the US team did US team had Trump working against them the England team only had its manager working against it Yeah, yeah, well Trump got a real nice send off though

Trump in gold glitter with Infantino has ever a more appropriate picture been taken Well, I also tried to get his picture taken on the stage with the

Spanish team and being led off and it's now led to a million memes of Trump and places he didn't belong

I suppose most notable among those places of course the White House and add you just did a column on sort of America's standing in the world

“There've been some recent polls released that show the United States. I think the US ranked like”

42nd among the countries of the world aging out Iran, but You know as we fall others gate and you pointed out China gained and I felt one of the interesting things in your column was that you talked about That this is not all attributable to Trump some of this began earlier and I thought maybe you could start there and explain Just where you see the origins of this shift

Yeah, I mean, I don't normally you know write about polls, but the Pew Global opinion poll you know it's been going since 2002 They they poll quite deeply across a lot of countries so it's a great time Sort of range to make comparisons and The reason I picked up on it is because it's so

Strongly aligns with my Experience of talking to foreigners whether they're foreign government officials or just sort of ordinary anecdotal, you know Makes changes with people when I'm abroad Which which isn't just that America's standing is falling but China's is rising You know that those two lines are both changing and they've crossed each other quite decisively in a majority of countries

“And I think a lot of it probably most is attributable to Trump”

And therefore his removal Assuming he's replaced by somebody vaguely saying Is removal would would improve that but it wouldn't dramatically dramatically all to the picture because China's approval ratings. It's trust And specifically People polls in these countries were asked which which country would you trust on the geopolitical stage to do the right thing?

China's trust level is rising and that's you know

Operation epic fury and his

“His epic incompetence is front and center of people's minds. I think it's also to do with things like”

Open source AI which is of course China's model and therefore it's it's much cheaper than America's Models which are closed for the most part and is therefore getting picked up a lot more in the global south I think it's also to do with China's heavy investment in clean energy. It's still going strong on coal and everything else But it is

Providing the platforms around the world to switch to renewable energy and a time when America is steaming Cold steamed Ship full speed in the opposite direction these things matter more and more

Around the world and then finally

Whatever you think of China's surveillance state and it is a surveillance state and I wouldn't dream of living that And whatever you think about it's autocracy and it is an autocracy. It's really a one-man autocracy It is not so far a country that is willing to risk wars of choice to to gamble on military adventure and an America remains

A military at a military adventurous country and that's not just down to Trump You know that they have more close circuit TV cameras in the UK than anywhere else Yeah, I'm just waving at myself Yeah, I just wanted to point out when you're talking about surveillance state, but Max, you know I

Be interested in your comments on what what I had stocky about here, but

Specifically, you know when it comes to trust part of it has to do with Reliability and and one of the probes is that when you swing from Obama to Trump to Biden to Trump to the you know Democrats to Republicans and and each group tries to undo each other's policies Have to have to say is there a way out for the United States

Or are we by virtue of our system and our sort of cultural divides consigned to a role of permanent unreliability or at least unreliability for the foreseeable future And it's certainly possible to make the pessimistic case there's a lot of evidence for what's you just cited In order to maintain our what tenuous hold I have on sanity at the moment

I'm choosing to be slightly more optimistic and I actually wrote about this over the July four holiday Looking back on my 50 years in America since at an iron both immigrants. I just got here a little bit Earlier than he did in 1976 from the Soviet Union and I was just reflecting on how

“You know the country has changed since 1976 and I think the surprise for a lot of younger people folks”

My kids generation is and a lot of ways the country's changed for the better. I mean I just remember You know there have been such tremendous advances for minority rights in the last 50 plus years You know for African Americans LGBTQ So many other groups there have been so such huge advances for for women's rights and of course you can say like

Our things going in reverse and in some ways they are sure with the Supreme Court overturning Rovey Wade and Rolling back the voting rights act, but I think we're still in a better place than we were in in 1976 which was you know a mere ten years after that beginning of this mantle of American apartheid and while we were still in the midst of battles over

Bussing and remember this was a time when we were recovering from defeat in the Vietnam or we were dealing with With an energy crisis which should seem familiar today or dealing with inflation which is seem familiar But there was I mean America in 1976 as a as I you guys are old enough to remember it was not a happy place So it was the country was very battered and yet we came back we survived or actually much

wealthier today than we were in 1976 and many ways Fear than we were in 1976 and America is still the number one power in the world despite all of our attempts the sabotage ourselves so you know I think if you if you just look at like the last decade you start to pull your hair out as you see have already done that but if you take a slightly longer run view I think maybe like the last 50 years you can say well you know we haven't done

that badly over the last 50 years so years and maybe there's some hope for the next 50 years

“at least that's what I choose to believe”

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Thank you and back to the show Well that I've you know I appreciate the optimism and and and the thought that we have

and undone everything that we've gained in the past 50 years

Questions whether we're trying to undo it and add you know one of the ways that it appears to the world that we're trying to undo it Well, you know I mean I could dress this up in foreign policy terminology but I won't Given my new jersey background You know we've had a outbreak of idiots and you know you have you know you've got guys like Pete Hakeseth Appearing yesterday and you know before the Congress and it's just said a lot of things that were idiotic

You know I mean you know and and the and the Congress questions it and Maybe they go along with it, but you know he said well we obliterated their nuclear program and then they said well How come we then invaded in February? Well, we don't let them down in nuclear program and it's like but didn't you obliterate it and he's like well They still had the intent and it's like well we've been fighting this war have we obliterated it now

“Isn't going now well there's still other issues and what about drones?”

What about this and you know we spent 37 billion and everybody's like well now you didn't

You spent probably 120 billion you've certainly spent more than that You've been newer times right a story and have we been lying about the number of people who've been killed We don't seem to know what we're doing. I mean this this Iran war is we we've had Wars that were mistakes and we've had wars that were badly managed before but this seems to be a real Sort of a pothiosis of fuck-operate and and that does have an effect. Does it not it?

It does I mean I think the fuck-operate um, you know we are we are agree we're with swimming and a sea of Immacility at the moment in public life Wave of home wave of criticism just crashes down on And you know there's no yet as there's no IR language that could possibly capture that which is why I'm echoing your new jersey Approach to it

The testimony by headset about you know how we're winning nonetheless and His analogy with Ukraine you said while we're in the fifth four of you great fifth year of the war with Ukraine So what's the problem with being in the fifth year of fifth month of of operation epic theory well the difference Is really obvious to anybody with the slightest sort of Gray matter which is that

Ukraine is not our war it's it's Russia's war and Russia is not yet defeated whereas operation epic theory Was a war that the president said would be over within a few weeks He in fact he believed it would probably be over in days and has changed its goals because success didn't Father to do the due diligence about the straight of homeowners and now that the war aims To go back to February the 27th that's hit have some go around nuclear deal like JCPOA and open the straight of homeowners that is February the 27th

So He's banking as JD advances as Trump has on the stupidity of the electorate You know this this idea that the left is is Snobbish and looks down super silliest towards the average American

“I understand it. I think it's more that they moralize the average American that's where they rub people's backs up”

They sort of imply a moral superiority the right our treating everybody as idiots that they think we're all stupid Testably like the one hexesh gave and there are there are multiple examples every day are examples of just How stupid they think we are and how stupid they think the world is and most of us are not stupid and most of the world is not stupid And I think you know that the hate to use a cliche but the chickens are coming home to a roost being treated with contempt

Doesn't pay in the long run I and no indeed indeed it does not You know Max Ed brings up the Warren Ukraine and and resonates with me. I wrote something about this myself a couple of weeks ago

It may never have been what it was cracked up to be and

You know you look at how Russia has fared in Ukraine you look at how the US fared in almost every war that it fought and you look at how Russia fared in Afghanistan and it's one thing to have the power to destroy the world many times over But that tends not to be super helpful when you're fighting a regional war when you're fighting war against You know particularly against a group of people that live in the place where you're fighting who don't want you to be there and and You know I wonder if one of the things that we're seeing here

is a kind of devaluation of this idea of a super power because You know it doesn't seem to be working out so great for the super powers

“Well, quite honestly it never has what if you look at you know American Vietnam if you look at the Soviet Union in Afghanistan”

This is a long standing story and it really and some ways challenges the utility of nuclear weapons because you know obviously super powers Big nuclear arsenals and medium sized powers want nuclear arsenals but the quiet But you know when can you actually use them and so far?

Mercifully the answer has been never and so you see the spectacle of

Two nuclear arms states in Russia and the United States Getting their butts kicked by adversaries who don't have any nuclear weapons at all and by the way Nuclear weapons haven't done Israel a whole well a lot of good either in terms of dealing with the threats that they face from Hamas or Hezbollah or Ron or what have you so yeah, I think this is a long standing story. I think what it basically comes down to is in some ways the most potent weapon in the world and it has been for the last two centuries

“Is nationalist ideology at least that's what I would argue that”

What whichever side in a struggle can tap into well-springs of nationalist Ideology is the one that has a massive advantage now clearly in the case of Ukraine. It's the Ukrainians Because they've been invaded by Russia now unfortunately for us when it comes to fighting and Vietnam Afghanistan Iraq or now with Iran It's the other side that taps into the nationalism and you know Trump was hoping to

For one of a better word to Trump Iranian nationalism by appealing To the Iranian people to rise up against their unpopular rulers and we saw what if he asked Go that turned out to be a now Trump has You know, doesn't know what the hell to do and so now he's threatening to blow up bridges and power plants Which is to put it mildly not the way you get the people of Iran on your side

He's basically left them out to dry and is now turning the people of Iran into

into victims of this war as well and so You know if you're gonna if you're gonna be this this foreign power combating the power of nationalism

“The historical record does not look very very promising for you and I think we're we're seeing that confirmed again in our war with Iran”

Yeah, and I think the power of nationalism is Multiplyed by if you're living in your own home you're not gonna leave so you've got a longer time frame than the other side has And obviously greater emotional ties and you know and this seems to be something that is apparent to the world And of course as Max point out Then you and I've talked about it before. It's been apparent to anybody's been paying attention for the past 60 or 70 years

The two people it seems to be most lost on our Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump Who seemed to think I am a super power there for? I will win no matter what in these circumstances and they you know I mean they ignore all of history including recent history for both countries and you know Donald Trump Particularly idiotically although I think Putin is doing the same thing they just keep repeating the same mistakes over and over Putin

Just says well we'll find people in Africa. We'll just send more people in what is the life expectancy now in Ukraine two to three weeks of your Russian Soldier there and he just keeps repeating over and over you know what he's doing and Trump is like well I'm gonna take over this country by virtue of an air war even though everybody knows he can't And it's why you know I think on our last episode because this is the ground-hog day war because we keep going through the same thing

every every Single day one of the problems I've got it is That there used to be constraints in the United States on that kind of behavior because the Congress would get involved And here you know, I mean we listen to eggs that yesterday even the Republicans were frustrated with him

70 billion dollars or whatever to you know pay for this war

And he's asking for 1.5 trillion and my money is they're gonna give him most of that Even though he isn't idiot and even though Trump makes these mistakes and so you know they're complicit the checks are going away And everybody seems to you know be ignoring these lessons of history Yeah, they are I mean and we are in the 250 of a year of since the Declaration of Independence and it you know should not be forgotten what Max was Saying about superpowers and and nationalism

Was true then as well Britain was the superpower of its age and the United States the colonies successfully rebel It was an asymmetric war that gave birth To the United States now of course the other superpower France did provide a helping hand nevertheless

This is exhibit eight it is embedded in the birth of America

“I think that people in populist mindsets”

Particularly right wing populist mindsets have an extraordinary misunderstanding of what power means Power means your ability to shape the world around you to your advantage They seem to think it means lethality and testosterone Now it is the authority and testosterone can actually shape the world more rapidly to your disadvantage

Because it you know as we discovered in the Iraq war and as portray as attempted, you know to To correct with the surge Every civilian you kill creates five more terrorists It actually makes the the situation worse, but this idea that power is about violence And violence only and Steven Miller is sort of

“Rift in his pseudo philosophical way on this subject. He's sort of I think thinks he's the in-house”

Philosophore for the idea that might is right this is This is at the core of Maga foreign policy. It's also at the core of Netanyahu's foreign policy and many other peoples, but It is an incredible sort of human misreading of what power really means

How power as I say is about being smart. I mean that is the most important muscle is between your ears

It's not about being stupid and violent Now it doesn't mean to say the threat of violence. It doesn't play an important role in helping get your way, but I'm just astonished how much we are regressing as a species If we measure our collective IQ through our democratic debates and outcomes Well, yeah, I mean if you believe that the thing that's gonna win wars for America is higher testosterone levels

“Then you'd think that the thing that determines our success is not between our ears. It's between our legs and and now Max”

You're a very high-tea guy You know, I mean I have think of you as a very high-tea guy and high testosterone levels leads by the way to the I'm probably my self-induling pushups more correctly than peat hikes. That's pretty good. Yeah, almost oh, yeah, no Almost so hold the minute you're saying being bold is a side of manliness Is it my parents? I mean, this is a warrior. So one thing I cling onto or I might be gray

But you know, I've got I've got ahead of had does this make me a girly man or what was it Schwartz and I get called them? I just think you're low-tea Come here and say that But but you know, I mean, it does kind of make a mockery. I mean, this is all that it pedags as seems to value in our Military, is leaveality as Ed says and testosterone levels and yet we keep losing all these wars

And the one he's managing we're fucking up worse than any other one and it's it's it's it's a it's a real But paternity I mean, it would be amusing if the consequences weren't so serious because of course This whole I can see of Trump and hexat is that all of the generals who have run America's wars before were all doops and babies as As Trump once said and obviously they they were you know low-tea individuals who did not have the martial virtues of

You know cadet bone spores in his in his great military record at the New York Military Academy Or you know hexat's military actual military record and so their whole conceit was You know the Department of Defense was full of losers before but we're gonna rename it the department of war And you know we haven't won a war since World War Two, but now we're gonna start winning wars baby We're gonna show them how it's done how these high-tea war-winning individuals there

You see what the results are we're in a quagmire that's in many ways

Worse than any quagmire in recent years and it's it's sort of grimly amusing that the Trump's brilliant Retort is oh yeah, you think this is bad. Well the Vietnam war was much worse

“Well, is that supposed to make us feel better than okay?”

We have a last 58,000 troops yet at a rod, but actually if you're not just looking at troop numbers And it's troop if you're just looking at casualties, okay, that's lower than in previous wars But in terms of the economic effect of this war, it's actually higher the Vietnam war Iraq and Afghanistan did not create a global energy crisis Trump's in excess war in Iran has and it's what's so frustrating is they blundered into this war as badly as any previous

President with the same kind of rosy scenarios that up too often governed

America would pass us for American strategic thinking and now

They're trapped they have no exit strategy. They literally have no idea of how to get out of this conflict And they're just blundering down, blundering on, making it even worse Trump still thinks that if he drops a few more bombs Makes a few more threats Somehow the Iranians will cave in even though all the evidence since the start of the war suggests completely the opposite so it's

It's appalling on one level. It's

“You know if you can if we can stand to be a little bit detached from it”

It's also sort of grimly amusing to see these guys get their come-up ends after spending all this time trashing Everybody else who ran America's Defense Department in the past

Yeah, it's also odd because we probably have a US Military apparatus led by You know three men who use the most make-up of any three men That we have seen in recent

Memory between Trump and Hexeth and of course Chatey Vance's eyeliner which looks great. I mean, it looks great And I'm not judge again for that

“But you know, and I think one of the things that hasn't gotten enough”

Focus in this and this will be my last question for each of you is You know, yes, it's a quagmire But one of the things about bad wars is they they spread and they grow in unintended ways And of course in this one there are few unintended sets of consequences We're depleting our weapons

We have less ability to fight other places. We have less ability to support Ukraine, which we said should be supporting And it's gonna take many many years to fix that that's one The Iranians we were trying to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon, but we've actually given them a weapon Or introduced to them a weapon that's better than a nuclear weapon use a nuclear weapon you end up with certain consequences But their recognition of

their ability to control the straight-of-war moves with very low-tech weapons and their ability to recognize The benefits of drone warfare something the Ukrainians have also recognized Give some tools that are much better than nukes and gives them more power and

Finally, and I'm not gonna go on and on on this, but just in terms of way this is spreading in the past couple of days

We've seen that the hooties now want to block the sea lanes that go to the up to the Suez Canal And this is because the Saudis have a pipeline that goes across Arabia and they want to block Saudi Close of oil, but I was talking to somebody else and they were saying now you've got others from the region Say, okay, we've got to go in and double down in the Horn of Africa Because that's the other side of fat sea lane and so you could have expansion of the conflict there

I have not gotten into the fact that If this economic problem continues, one other thing that we are likely to see is it pushing Global stock markets and potentially AI companies To the moment where that bubble bursts and if that bubble bursts

All whatever buoyancy there is in the world economy disappears all together So just I'd like to get a look at You know the unintended consequences of this war Beyond just the fact that it won't end and you're posing this question to me and my capacity is a real man Yeah, no, no, no mother

Listen to your voice listen to your voice either your real man or you still smoke, but one of those all AI The unintended consequences or unforeseeable consequences and not necessarily that unforeseeable Certainly unintended I think of the the fact that there's now a much should have accelerated global arms race going on and the diversion of resources

I think one of the most disturbing analogies With today is the one in the late 1930s where you have what seemed to be a bunch of regional wars You know in no one of Africa with the Italian war and Abacinia in in Spain of course with the civil war there And then with Japan's invasion of Manchuria and other little Little schools all of which were perceived at the time as being independent to each other, but which joined up

To become the second world war. Well, we've got a bunch of

You know seemingly Discrete conflicts going on around the world the two main ones at which you're in the Persian Gulf and of course with Russia and Ukraine They are they're overlapping and influencing each other In ways that are quite disturbing and of course, you know if China I'm I'm not in of the school I think China's gonna

Occupy Taiwan the first

“The first opportunity I think China is actually quite a cautious power and it'll have been studying”

A symmetric warfare. It will have a better understanding of that than than Trump's administration does But it's nevertheless been hugely advantageed by the massive rundown in US stocks of Defense batteries of patriot missiles, etc And in and of Tomahawk's and a whole bunch of other equipment America

Just doesn't produce things at the speed And scale China does and it's gonna take a long time to replenish US stocks and that changes the Global advantage. I think there are a couple of Between US and China in China's favor. I think there are a couple of positive trends one of which I've already mentioned Which is there's a lot more investment in green energy

And I think you don't now need to sell green energy On virtue grounds on climate change grounds and in Europe for example, it's a national security imperative You do not want to depend either on Russian energy which is pretty much all now being cut or on American energy LNG

“From from the United States you need to be energy independent and that's that's a great that's a potentially great trend to come out of this”

Otherwise very bleak and stupid war Yeah, well a Trump thinks that's a bad trend obviously because it undermines all of his efforts to Attach green energy one other point before I get to you Max was we had a Miss Hoxton on our show One of our shows last week talking about this war He's obviously an energy expert and in terms of sort of unintended intersections of these things

We were talking about rising diesel prices and he was talking about the degree to which The Ukraine war was driving up diesel prices as well as this war and so you do have this kind of Amplification of certain problems that will carry over by the way into Food shortages obviously with Ukraine and Russia as leading producers of grain Increasing fertilizer costs impacts of that

But same question new Max as you look at this you're a great strategic thinker as you look at this Are we missing the fact that there are some troubling Strategic implication longer term potential sort of Prepping consequences of this war I don't think we're missing it

“David I think Trump is missing it or he doesn't care basically”

But yeah, I mean I I would certainly second everything that that Ed is said

I mean I think you know if you're trying to design a military intervention that would discredit the United States and Alien it our allies. It's hard to do better than what Trump has done with Iran. I mean there is basically Not gonna be a single ally in the world which is gonna be happy with us at the end of this including Israel Which is the country that Blundered into this war with us with this

Kaka Mami Mossad plan to install Mach-Mudokminachad. It's the president of Iran Which I can't even say without laughing but now even Israel is not happy with with with the United States because of course Trump has thrown Israel under the bus too and is Prushering them to back off has below on Lebanon as part of the price of peace with with With Iran of course our Gulf allies

are horrified that Trump is dragged him into a war they didn't ask for and is now basically leaving them

To pick up the pieces the end result of this war by the way I predict will be Iran in control of the state of horror movies and charging tolls on traffic which prior to February 28 had been free Trump will probably acquiesce to this but it's gonna be you know the Gulf states who are gonna be

Renewed Iranian threat of course the the conflict has also exacerbated the already tense relations between the U.S. and Europe because

“Trump is desperate for a scapegoat so he's basically trying to blame the Europeans for not bailing him out of this”

Crazy war that he started basically saying like oh yeah, you know, I plundered into the situation

Iran closes the state of Armus but you guys you Europeans you take care of it You open the state of Armus as if they have the capability to do that when the U.S. Navy Can't do that so this is making the situation worse there and to you know to the the Ukraine and Russia point This is once again raising oil prices which hopes Russia is an oil exporter and it's as Admition it's depleting

dramatically stockpiles of patriots among other things which the Ukrainians does really need to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles

Which are being aimed at their cities and at the end of the day as as at Satin as I've written and many others have said as well

The big winner is gonna be China because they're doing all the things that Trump is not

“Including making massive investments in green energy and I think there are so many stupid counterproductive things that Trump does”

But it's really hard to top the fact that he is spending literally Billions of dollars to close down wind farms which provide renewable energy at a time on gasoline Energy fossil fuel prices are soaring and climate change is getting worse and instead of you know blaming climate change for These horrible wildfires in Canada which are sending smoke our way Trump thinks it's because the Canadians aren't

Ricking their forests or something ridiculous like that so yeah, I mean

The more I talk about it the less terrible it becomes for me to you know to argue the somewhat optimistic Launcher review that I was arguing with the beginning of our conversation because as both of you have been saying there's just so So much stupid in US policy at every level right now But I have to hope that somehow we will recover and I'll cut the only words that give me any comfort are those Supposedly uttered by by Adam Smith after

the

“I think the British law sit at your town or he was told that the empire was ruined and he supposedly said there's a great deal of ruin in a country and”

That is certainly a proposition that that Trump and in company are testing right now Well, you know, I can't speak for ad here, but but I personally I'm gratified that we were able to tamper a tamper your optimism And you know offset it with a little bit of this Reality as a way of doing that yeah, and by the way you could come up with knock on effects of all of this

You know one of the ways that we were Gonna get the Israelis to change was they want a normalization with the Saudis very much prior to Gaza And we were gonna do a deal. We were gonna give the Saudis civilian nuclear power and they were gonna acknowledge the Israelis and the Israelis We're gonna back off of Gaza and of course because

Everything has been disrupted now Trump has offered a deal to the Saudis saying yet not he can have the nukes anyway Nope no conditions and without thinking through the the knock on effects Anyway, the whole purpose of this is to say None of this is as simple as it seems it starts with immacility or malevolence or corruption But it leads in many directions and the presidents not seeing them, but we all have to see them

Even if we are in ads immortal terms, which will undoubtedly Be the title for this podcast Swimming in a sea of immacility Anyway event. Thank you very much Ed. Thank you very very much Max hope you'll be back soon Hope all of you will be back soon

See ya