Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand

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What is the status of America's war with Iran? If you are trying to follow it through what President Trump is saying, you are going to be, I have become hopelessly lost. Trump within a single day will veer wildly between saying the war is almost over, and it is preparing to escalate it dramatically, that negotiations are going great, and there's

no one to talk to. It Iran must open the state of Hormuz, and then America doesn't care if it's closed.

On Wednesday night in a nationally televised address, Trump sought to finally clear the

fog, to make the path forward clear, to the American people, and to our allies. I've made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fear that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly.

We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, just where they belong in the meantime. It's all hard to say which goals exactly we've achieved, because from another perspective, Iran seems to think it's winning this war. It was James Survived, it has learned how much power it can exert over the world economy

by choking up the straight of our moves, it has seen sanctions lifted on its oil, and looking towards a new order where charges countries to pass through the straight. And Trump appears to be abandoning the straight.

“That I think was the most shocking part of his speech, telling our allies, it's their”

problem now. The promised Trump made was an end to threats from Iran. He repeated that promise on Wednesday night. Tonight every American can look forward to a day when we are finally free from the wickedness of Iranian aggression and the specter of nuclear black belt, because of the actions we've

taken. We are on the cusp of ending Iran's sinister threat to America and the world and I'll tell you the world is watching you. But if you listen to experts on Iran, that is not what they see coming. What they see coming is in Iran that has learned quite a lot from the war, and that

might emerge from it much more dangerous. Suzanne Meloni is a vice president and director of the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy program. She is one of Washington's leading Iran experts having advised multiple presidential administrations both Democratic and Republican and written or edited a number of books on

Iran, and I was really surprised how blunt she was here. Iran, she said, thinks it's winning this war, and there's a good case that they are. We spoke on Wednesday morning before Trump speech, but his speech reflected her analysis almost perfectly.

As always, my email as Reconcio at [email protected].

Suzanne Meloni, welcome to the show. Thanks so much for having me. So I find the state of the war in Iran confusing, even if somebody's been covering it. I hear Donald Trump talking daily now about how the war only is two to three more weeks in it.

Negotiations are going great. You know, this is almost over, and I also see the removing about 10,000 more troops into the area, alongside other military assets. What should I believe here? What should these should I be tracking?

“Well, I think at this point we have to be tracking both the language, the Trump administration”

and the president himself are using especially on social media. But we also have to be watching what's happening on the ground because, you know, what we've seen even in the build up to the war is that the president has often said one thing and done something different. And that's something that Iranians are well aware of and very much prepared for.

And I think he's probably getting different opinions, and it's not entirely clear that

it's quite clear that he is trying to bring a close to this war that will enable him

to declare victory and to walk away from the conflict. Last week, the Trump administration sent the Iranians a 15 point peace plan. This was supposed to be the basis for negotiations. What was in that plan? Well, it was a lot of the same demands that the president and his negotiators had put

on that table prior to the war itself. We want a durable commitment to no enrichment, to no nuclear weapons in the program in the future. He was looking for another number of other steps that the Iranians would take to end their support for proxies to end their ballistic missile program. These have been longstanding concerns on the part of the United States.

They really do date back to even the negotiations that the Obama administration led that produced a deal that temporarily put constraints on a number of Iran's nuclear activities.

“I think what President Trump is trying to achieve is what he's been pushing for throughout”

both his first and second terms, and he's not able to achieve conclusively through military

action. How did the Iranians respond? The Iranians effectively believe that they have the upper hand at this point in time, and so they have indicated that they don't really see themselves as prepared to negotiate directly with Washington, they are embedded, obviously, as a result of the negotiations

that were taking place both in the days before the President launched the strikes about a month ago, as well as the same sort of dynamics that preceded the June war where negotiations were really just a prelude to military action, and in some, in fact, to some extent, a ruse to dupe the Iranians into complacency, even as the attack was being mobilized. And so it's a little bit difficult to get direct diplomacy with Tehran in the best of circumstances.

This is a regime that has sort of based its ideology on anti-Americanism. It has often frequently, in fact, refused to deal directly with American negotiators. And so, you know, under the current circumstances where there have been thousands of strikes, and many deaths in Iran, including some of the top leadership, they're not terribly inclined to sit down at nor are they particularly inclined to compromise with the United States.

Why do they believe they have the upper hand? They believe they have the upper hand precisely because they were able to seize control of the Strait of Hormos, which is, of course, the strategic waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil and natural gas exports pass on a daily basis.

What the Iranians did in the first days of the war was to strike at ships that were passing

through the Gulf, and effectively persuade insurers and shipping companies and oil companies to avoid the Gulf unless they had some kind of assurance from the Iranians that they could pass. And so what we've seen is in the pre-war period, there would be anywhere from 130 to 140 tankers traveling to and from over the Strait of Hormos every day. We've seen only a handful take place over the course of the past month, and that has had a severe

impact on oil exports, on prices for oil around the world, and it will over time have a catastrophic impact on the global economy if there isn't a resolution to this stoppage of the Strait. Goal level deeper on that for me. Why does that give them the upper hand?

“They've had, I think, more than 10,000 sites attacked by US and Israel.”

They've had a huge number of senior political and military leadership, killed in strikes. They're militarily tremendously outmatched, so yes, they've been able to close the Strait. That is sending energy prices for the laser prices, other key components of the global economy rising, but so what that's paying for them, too? Why do they seem so confident?

They can afford to wait. They have already suffered as you know, tremendous losses to the leadership. This has had a terrible impact on Iranians cities across the country, but in effect, they have the advantage of time at this point in time, because every day that the stoppage goes on, the impact on the global economy is magnified, and that will have a direct impact

on President Trump's political standing. It also hurts all of America's partners in allies in the region and around the world. This is creating huge constraints in Asia, and that is going to be something that the United States is going to hear from all of its partners in allies when it's engaged in diplomacy. They are looking to see an end to this war, too, and so for the Iranians, this is an existential

crisis.

“They're prepared to wait this out as long as they can, and I think that's the real question”

now, who blinks first? Let me for a minute about the timing, so Trump, as you know, he seems much more incentivized

And my understanding is that we are entering this period where the closure of the straight is going to start really biting the global flow of energy and commodities. It said that we've been in a period where tankers that had already gone through were still arriving at ports around the world, but we're moving into something where you're going to cease having the landings in Asia of energy tankers that had been needed in Europe, fertilizer

is about to get crunched, that right now we've been really worrying about futures and people are pricing things higher out of fear of the future, but we're about to hit the point where these shortages become material in the present. And so when Trump looks forward to the three or four weeks, if this keeps going, what has been modest price rises can become globally something much more severe.

And for the Iranians that they see their leverage increasing very, very rapidly in the coming weeks is that accurate, how you complicate that, talked to me about that question of the coming timing.

“I think that's exactly right, you know, we've never had a prolonged closure of the straight”

of homos, we've never had this length of disruption in terms of oil exports, and as

you note other petrochemicals and commodities that are key to the global economy. This is something that is completely unprecedented. And in effect, markets haven't fully priced in the potential impact at this point in time. Americans are still effectively paying the price at the gas pump that is determined by production in the United States and by supplies on hand.

But as we've already seen rapid and severe increases in prices of oil and other products in Asia, they're closer to the source. And as prices normalize over time as the disruption is priced in, we will be seeing not just four and five and six dollar prices for gasoline at the pump, but much, much higher. And it will play out as you note in all sectors of the economy, particularly some of the

key sectors that are crucial for the whole affordability debate here in the United States,

food and commodity prices. Chips are going to be impacted by the limits and supply of helium. And so that will have an impact on all the tech that we buy, everything from our televisions to our cars could be impacted as a result of this. So, you know, Prime Minister Modi in India compared this to effectively COVID and the pandemic

“and the impact on global supply chains, I think that is a very apt comparison, particularly”

if this extends over the course of another month or so. So are we moving into a period now where the asymmetric balance of the two sides weapons are changing that we have done a tremendous amount of damage to Iran. We've killed many of the senior leadership and they have effectively absorbed that. The question of what we can do next that is worse than what we've already done.

It's not impossible to imagine. But all those things like say taken cargile and expose us to much more risk whereas for Iran, the weapon they have been using, which is choking off the straight of our moves, is about

to become a much more potent and powerful weapon because of shortages become real and material

as opposed to notional. Yes, I think that's exactly right. And from the Iranian perspective, they now believe that they have survived this war. The regime was not taken down even though Ali Haminay, the individual who'd been the Supreme Leader for 37 years was killed on the first day of the war and a number of other

senior figures have been eliminated and we see this happening on an ongoing basis. But if regime change was one of the goals of the war from the Trump administration and of course this was something that President Trump's first messages around this war really highlighted. Iranian's now believed that they have been able to survive and that the regime itself, despite having been grievously wounded, will remain intact.

That is something that is also quite a threat for their neighbors and so we do see this.

“I think debate happening both in public and certainly in private between the United States”

and some of its regional partners, the United Arab Emirates, the Saudis, the Qataris and others who are very concerned about being left with a wounded, embittered and emboldened Iran on their doorstep and Iran that still has managed to preserve its missiles and its drones and its capability to fire on its neighbors and also, by the way, has some stockpile of highly enriched uranium, perhaps buried under the ground in Isfahan, perhaps dispersed

at other sites and whatever restraint they had around their nuclear program is likely to be eliminated as well in the aftermath of this crisis. We may see a regime that would be looking to move very quickly to nuclear weapons capability. This may be brings up Iran's counter-properosal.

There's been talk of a five-point plan from the Iranians.

What's been in that plan? Well, the Iranians would like compensation for the suffering and the economic losses that they've experienced during the war. They would like to retain some control over the straight-of-formers and effectively continue to monetize their ability to determine who and what might pass through this particularly

strategic waterway.

“So they're looking to come out of this war, I think, in a stronger position.”

That's not entirely inconceivable. It's going to be a regime which has taken enormous hits. The country has suffered tremendous losses in terms of its productive capabilities in terms of its own economy and as we know, that was in pretty dire straits.

The economy had collapsed to a point where people went to the streets back in January and

very large numbers all around the country. So they're facing a really difficult situation, but their goal is to essentially use their leverage at this key moment to ensure that they come out in a stronger position. There is a difference between these two plans as I understand that, which is Trump's plan requires the Iranians to affirmatively do a series of things.

Iran's plan, at least in some of its dimensions, seems actually somewhat under their control. They clearly have the capacity to turn the state of her moves into a tall booth where in order to pass it, you need their permission and that either comes from alliance with them or paying them off. I doubt they're going to get reparations from America as they're asking for, but if they

begin monetizing the straight, that is a form of money coming in.

In the sanctions thing, I would think would be absurd, except for the fact that we've

in fact lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and they're making more money from that than they were now before as my understanding. So that also seems suddenly possible, particularly if the global energy supply is highly squeezed and as such, the oil they are exporting even other players is more valuable to them. So to what degree is this not even negotiating position so much as simply them articulating

“what their strategy is going to be whenever this ends?”

I think that's to some extent the truth, but they do want the reparations, they do want this sort of acknowledgement that they were wronged in this war and I don't think they're going to receive that. So the question is, what is it that they're likely to settle for? The other concern is that the international community does not want to see a toll booth

put at the mouth of the straight or foremost because that effectively means that the Iranians retain control and perpetuity and can change the terms if and as they like. And that would be highly unpredictable and no one wants to give Iran that kind of control. Is it under any power to deny it to them? Well, this is the question, I mean there certainly would be a military solution if we were

prepared to pay the cost. That would take much larger numbers of troops and military assets moving to the region then we've already seen happening at this point in time. That would be very time-consuming, very costly and of course we would feel the hit to the economy even before we succeeded and it could take many months to do.

But that is certainly an alternative that's available to the president. There could be mitigating missions, the escort effort that has been put underway with some support from the UK and others in Europe that would enable some amount of tanker traffic to reopen. There are avenues that we have to try to undertake this without conceding to the Iranians.

The best solution for everyone here is one that ends this crisis as quickly as possible. And so that probably isn't going to be a military solution. It's going to have to be a diplomatic solution. Even for President Trump, the velocity at which his statements have become self-contradictory has accelerated, you will listen to him within a single paragraph.

It seems to me take positions that are diametrically opposed to each other. I find it hard to take anything he's saying at this point too seriously as a statement of American policy. That said, he has begun saying something in various interviews over the past week that has surprised me, which is that America will simply leave in two to three weeks without

any agreement with Iran and without opening the state of our mousse. And Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday, my attitude is, I've obliterated the country. They have no strength left and let the countries that are using the straight, let them go and open it. He has talked about this specifically about the UK said, you know, you want the oil, you

go do something. I weaken them. You go secure the straight.

“What would it mean for Trump to simply say, we're done?”

We have declared victory. We are not worrying about the straight. Trump's view seems to be that we don't really need the straight. You can buy oil from us or you can secure the straight if it's so important to you.

almost seems to see it maybe as we had to punish them for that. What would that mean? Well, the logic of the president is somewhat questionable. It's not clear to me or to anyone who understands the economics of the energy markets that if the straight remain closed that somehow the prices in the United States wouldn't

be impacted. It's very clear that we would feel the hit both in terms of energy prices but also to wider markets. And that's something the president himself is very sensitive to. So, it's not a very well thought out plan.

“I think the other piece of it is that, you know, to put the burden on our friends and partners”

in allies or even on other world powers like China to try to drive towards some solution to this crisis when none of those parties were consulted or in any way participated in the decision to launch the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran that was taken by the United States in Israel. I think would mean the end of some of those very long standing partnerships and alliances

that have been so critical to our ability to promote security and prosperity around the world.

Their core to the identity of the United States is a global power. There's no other party that's going to come in and play that role in our absence. And it will mean a much less safe and much less prosperous world as a result. I don't know the Trump fears relinquishing that role for America. So let's take a minute's word or that particular version of his word for one moment.

Let's say in two weeks he announces, "We're done. We have hit the military targets one hit. We have set their programs back. We've obliterated them," as he said last time. And if somebody else wants to open the straight, good on them.

But what happened then?

“I think the likely outcome of a United States withdrawal from this conflict would be that”

first of all these railways would probably continue to try to strike Iran.

And so the conflict itself would not be over. The Iranians would essentially assume the role of toll collector at the Gulf. And they would use this opportunity to really rebuild their own finances and to exert more power over their partners in allies. I think it would have a very destructive impact on the global economy over time because we

would still see a continued constraint in terms of traffic. And so again, that's going to fall on our own doorstep very quickly. We're not insulated from these dynamics around the world. And we would probably wind up with very different relationships with countries that have been very important to our security in the region as well as around the world whether

that's our NATO allies or countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that have been really important and importantly to the president in terms of his own monetization of his role. They have, in many cases, invested in the president's family. And I can't imagine they're going to be very happy holding the bag for this crisis.

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today. I think he thinks he has this in the bag, but I'm not so sure. All right, then let's flip the possibility here. So we know the Iranians know he's moving more military assets into the region about 10,000 trips as I mentioned before.

I've seen many military analysts and at this point you look at betting markets. They have a more than even odds view that the U.S. will be conducting ground operations in Iran before the end of April. How likely do you think that it's? You know, it's very difficult to assess where the president's tweets and his actions connect.

But I do think it's a realistic possibility that we will see American forces occupying or attempting to occupy some ground positions in Iran. The most obvious contenders are Carg Island, which is the export terminal through which much

It is not the production facility.

“It is really just the place in which the tankers are loaded.”

If that Carg Island was taken by American troops, then theoretically the Iranians would not be able to export their oil. And that's been one of the interesting dimensions of this crisis that in all the war gaming and planning and thinking about what might happen in a closure, the assumption was that Iran would feel some pressure because its economy would be hit.

And what they've been able to do is very selectively enable their own exports to go. If that change, then they might have some more time pressure. But of course, you know, the risks to American troops on Carg Island would be severe. Our ability to resupply them with munitions as well as just basic living conditions would also be severe.

We would have the impact to the global economy because we would have turned off the

spigot on another million or million five barrels a day.

There have been war games that have looked at what a United States Iranian war might how it might play out. And they have all involved some threat to the strait of war moves as well as some response from the international community led by the United States to reopen it. The military options for the United States in terms of reopening the strait are not particularly

attractive ones. This is a very small and narrow passageway, but the entirety literal coast of the Persian Gulf would have to be defended if we were going to ensure that we could have normal tanker traffic moving through the Gulf, and you'd really have to occupy a significant swath of territory because obviously those troops would be vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

So it's not something that five or ten or twenty thousand troops are going to be able to do over a sustained period of time in an effective way.

“I think this idea that Carg Island or Keshem Island, which is another large strategically”

positioned island in the Gulf, or taking parts of Iran's coastline, they sound great on paper in practice. They don't fix the problem quickly or neatly, and they probably result in a large number of casualties for the United States. And I think that all of this just underscores that there wasn't really a plan thought

through around this military operation, the president and Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to have engaged in magical thinking that somehow the regime which had been heavily weakened by the internal protests, by the June war that had obliterated in the president's words, the nuclear program, and by the erosion of Iran's proxy militias around the region over the course of the past several years.

And the presumption seems to have been that the regime would just collapse on day one or two or three. That hasn't happened. It doesn't appear likely to happen, at least under the current circumstances. And so what we're stuck with is just an array of very bad options, bad diplomatic options,

bad military options. I don't really understand in a long term way what that achieves in a world where you are not committing the ground forces necessary for regime change and trying to install and secure your own regime. You can plausibly land our forces and secure the straight for a period of time.

But so long as the Iranian regime is in place, eventually they will take it back. And what has not been discussed, certainly with the American people have not been prepared for, or asked to prepare for what Congress has not been prepared for, asked to prepare for, is a regime change and rebuilding operation such that there's not an ongoing threat to American troops or ongoing capacity of the Iranian regime to secure the straight.

The idea that we are just going to be stationed in Iran in a extended way, holding the straight as a regime rebuilds itself and presumably launches constant asymmetric attacks on our forces doesn't seem like a plausible long term equilibrium to me.

“No, I think you said it better than I possibly could.”

There isn't really a military solution to the straight that can be achieved by the United States as long as the regime remains in power. The Islamic Republic was intended to fall as a result of this military operation by the United States in Israel. When that didn't happen, I think the President didn't really have any other options.

It's clear that he has campaigned really, and in some ways he was prescient in appreciating the impact of the quote unquote forever wars on the American people on the American economy, something that he has been a long trend and theme in his own political career from

his first bid for the presidency, throughout his first term, and again in this term,

But in discrete limited ways that were intended as decapitation strikes or other very

“small bore efforts, and it seems that he didn't fully recognize the potential fallout”

from an Iran strike that there was no way to decapitate the regime and quickly move to some kind of an alternative power that would be more friendly to the United States. It simply doesn't exist within the Islamic Republic. Well, it seems to me to have had two theories of this. One theory was the regime will fall as the Iranian people rise up to destroy it.

And the other, which he talked about at other times, was more the Venezuelan option that he would decapitate the regime that would kill Hamani and that a layer or two down there would be some set of pragmatic, more business minded, more transactional leaders who would cut a deal with the US that, you know, they would get our support, the kind of structure of the regime could remain in place, but they would be friendly or to our interests and

do what we said when we told them to do it. And it seems to me when neither of those things happened. And I'd be curious for your perspective on why they didn't happen.

But when neither of them happened, there was actually never a plan, see.

Yes, I think that's exactly right.

“And I think neither of those outcomes happened for very much the same reason, which is that”

this is a deeply embedded regime and one that has very strong control over all aspects of society, the economy, and the government. It is not a personalistic regime where you can swap out a leader and somehow get one that might have a different view. This is a regime that came to power through a popular revolution, so it has been 47 years

ensuring that no one can do to it what it did to its predecessor, the monarchy, which meant that when the decapitation happened on the first day, I told Hamani that there was joy heard from many Iranians, but they were also still terrorized. They also did not have a political movement that they could turn to. They could, in fact, potentially challenge the system at a moment of vulnerability.

They could go to the streets, but they had done so only a month before, and they had been slaughtered in historic numbers by the regime itself. And they could see that those forces were still out there. Government officials were sending text messages, the pace of executions of dissidents and protesters has remained high.

They are sending a very clear signal to the population, "Don't you dare take this opportunity?" And in the aftermath of the mass occurs that occurred in January, it is understandable that Iranians weren't going to take that risk. For the same reason, the deeply embedded nature of the regime, this is why we are not seeing a different perspective, or a more pragmatic or rational perspective, from those

who are somewhere lower in the ranks of the regime itself. And the top echelon was killed. Their successors in many ways are more radical or more hard-line. That was true of the Supreme Leader himself. He's been replaced by his son, who had fewer religious credentials, less political experience,

but is very closely aligned with the Revolutionary Guard and is likely to govern in

a much more even more authoritarian way than his father. And that's been true of many of the figures who've come into senior positions as individual leaders have been picked off. It is a much more heavily militarized regime, but one that has no real differentiation in terms of the anti-American, anti-Israeli radical ideology.

Trump told the financial time, speaking here of Hamani Sondos and other the new Supreme Leader, quote, "The sun is either dead or an extremely bad shape. We've not heard from him at all. He's gone. What do we know about who's in charge?"

That's a very good question. What we know are that there are still a number of officials, most of which have senior military experience, who appear to be essentially running the government. There is also a sort of administrative side to the governance in Iran, which is still being led by a president who is elected in the aftermath of the death of another potential

contender for the Supreme Leader just a couple of years ago. He has very little power, but he can keep the system running.

“The key figures are those from the military.”

Mojtaba Hamani, who has been named the Supreme Leader, who has issued several statements, has not been seen in public. There are a wide range of rumors about the state of his health that he may have been grievously injured in the same attack that killed his father, his mother, his wife,

and other members of his family on the first day of the war.

But in effect, it's almost irrelevant at this point. Mojtaba can remain kind of a cipher. He can govern from afar because there are these military officials who are essentially

And the system that his father set up has insured that this is highly institutionalized. The Supreme Leader had representatives in every administrative office of the government. They will continue running the state in the vision of the Islamic Republic.

And if Mojtaba is never seen in public, if he is known to be grievously injured, of course,

his father had experienced a significant terrorist attack early in his career, lost the use of his right hand that actually just plays into the themes of martyrdom and sacrifice that are so important to this regime. So I don't think it's actually a deficit that we have this kind of shift in the balance of power away from the clergy toward the military.

“It's something that where I think the regime is leaning into at this point in time.”

The speaker of Iran's parliament, who's also a former RGC commander, Muhammad Bahar Kaliboff, he doesn't seem amenable to negotiation. I've heard from many people, the belief that he's one of the key people in charge. But to the point you're making posted on X, which is kind of amazing that this is a place where Iran and America are communicating, quote, "We believe the aggressor must be punished

and ought to lessen, they will deter them from attacking Iran again." So what is Iran learning here? What is the perspective on the war and future security for Iran that is taking hold among the people who do seem to still be there and who are still in charge? That's a really important point.

The Iranians want to ensure that they don't face yet another round of attacks. So one of the concerns that they have about a potentially preemptive end to this war

“is that it will just be the prelude to another set of strikes.”

This is what they experienced in June of 2025, and they were waiting for the next round. They understood it was coming. They studied the war in June and they have studied how the United States has prosecuted its wars in other parts of the region, particularly in Iraq. And so they were very much prepared this time.

What they want to do is ensure that the pain level is high enough that the United States and the Israelis will be diswated from taking further action so that they can rebuild so that they can re-consolidate their power without the fear that there's just another set of strikes lurking around the corner. I want to ask about some of these other joint war aims of America and Israel, and I want

to do so with the recognition that maybe our aim is somewhat diverge. But certainly Corda Netanyahu's long term vacancy for a war of this nature was eliminating the threat of Iran's nuclear program to Israel. We had a bombing campaign, you know, about a year ago. We were told after that that the Iranian nuclear program had been obliterated that this

was done. Then at the launch of this war, we were told they were days away from getting a nuclear weapon to what degree has that game been achieved, push forward, set back, like how would

“you describe the state of the goal of ensuring Iran will never have a nuclear weapon?”

I think we are still some ways away from ensuring that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon

and that is simply because Iran still has the technical expertise and it still has potentially large quantities of highly enriched uranium which would enable it to move quickly. This current state of the war, this current round of strikes has done even more significant damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure than was done during the June war, and so it is compounded that the technical challenge that the Iranians will have to reconstitute the program.

But as long as they have the expertise as long as they have the potential fuel and they have the know how to build the machines and create the infrastructure, they can get there again. And what we know is that I would call a harmony, the supreme leader who was killed, was in fact one of the sources of some constraint on the decision to move forward or not with

a weapons program. Iran had a weapons program which it put on ice in 2003 after the US invasion of Iraq. The intelligence community has been somewhat confident that that weapons program was not active at this time, but we can't verify that, and we know that much of Iran's activities were underground.

And so there isn't the level of visibility and confidence that we have hit every possible

element of the program even in the second round of war.

How about the ballistic missiles program? The latest that we've heard is that the US assesses that about 30% of Iran's missile capabilities have been taken out by strikes. They've also expanded some of the rest of their missiles in their own strikes. And we believe that they still have both the missiles, the launchers.

And again, even if the production facilities have been destroyed, they have the capability

We have seen the Israelis in particular, take wider strikes, clearly aimed at undermining the larger economic infrastructure in Iran, whether it was at the South Park's gas field or the more recently the steel manufacturing plants around the country.

“I think that's all intended to make the road harder and longer toward reconstituting a”

really industrial scale ballistic missile program. But the Iranians have also been very calculated in how they've used those missiles. They appear to be improving their accuracy over the course of this war. And they still have the capability to both strike their neighbors and Israel with ballistic missiles.

And they have an even larger and probably more flexible capability when it comes to drone construction. You know, if you listen to Secretary of Defense of War, Pete Higgs-F, in his commentary

we're always pretty close to destroying Iran's ability to fire missiles, to have a

offensive capability, you know, Trump himself talks, constantly about obliterating their ability to project power. We don't seem to have been able to do it. Why is that?

“Why is this proven militarily so hard to kind of shut Iran's capability?”

To threaten infrastructure throughout the region, to threaten ships coming through the straight. We have destroyed a lot of Iranian capabilities, but they have more than we fully appreciate it and they've also been able to both hide and reconstitutes some of those capabilities that we're already hit.

I think that kind of resilience was something that was not fully appreciated by the Trump administration or by the war planners that this is a regime that has seen the worst before.

I often point to the first several years of the Islamic Republic when there were tribal

revolts. There was urban street fighting. There was intense factionalism and terrorist attacks on the leadership and severe economic constraints. Then the Iraqi invasion in September 1980 and the presumption was that Iran would simply collapse.

That didn't happen. They fought back.

“And I think what we're seeing now is that same resilience, that same determination to push”

forward even when the odds seem tremendously negative and we discounted their ability to do exactly what they have done in the past. Country is learned things during wars and Ukraine is a very different country in terms of its know-how in fighting in terms of what it produces and how it produces it than it was before Russia's invasion.

What is Iran learning during this war, assuming some coming scenario, you know, whether it's in two weeks or six months where America and Israel are not bombing any longer, what will Iran have learned and how will that in your view change the way it tries to rebuild its defense, its deterrent capability, its strategic capabilities. What have we turned Iran into here under this pressure?

I think they've learned a lot of very dangerous lessons and this is something that we know the Iranians have studied, not just America's wars, they've studied their own wars.

The Iran Iraq War was a subject of like 100 volume study by the Revolutionary Guard

and this is something that the entire Iranian leadership has essentially been tutored on over the course of its of their careers and so they're watching this war and I think some of the lessons they're taking are that time can be on their side, they can actually seize the straight and then they have the upper hand that ingenuity and some of the same skills that they use to sustain the war with the Iraq at a time where they were largely cut off

from international weapons supplies as well as battered economically can be applied here that they can still manage to sustain a war and again that time will be on their side. Finally, I think they have seen in real time that they can hit their neighbors in a way that strikes not just the economic infrastructure but at the larger political and strategic aims of their leadership, particularly in the Emirates and in Saudi Arabia, these are

leaders that are trying to affect a massive transformation of their societies really and try to tie them much more thoroughly and in widely networked ways with the global economy through tech, through tourism, through sports and all the Iranians need is a drone through a window of a luxury hotel to persuade Americans and Europeans who might have been planning a spring break and do by to reconsider and a drone through an airport will cut off

the traffic that is so important to these countries, the Iranians have targeted very clearly

going to be a really long term concern for their neighbors.

We've talked a bit about how it doesn't really appear that America had planned this, the Trump administration and plan this at a high level of detail, that's not my view about these rallies.

“I think these rallies actually did understand their war aims, I think that they did undergo”

quite a lot more planning over a much longer period of time and I think that they are willing to accept outcomes if from the American perspective would not be great and not have justified this but are from the Israeli perspective progress. What is your sense of what they wanted and what they have achieved and what position this has put them in compared to where they were two months ago?

I think Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted to achieve the dream that he's had for decades which was to see the end of the Islamic Republic, the end of the threat that it posed to Israel's existence and that it championed this threat to Israeli existence. So I think that for Prime Minister Netanyahu the persistence of the regime is going to be a tremendous disappointment but these rallies I think are very satisfied with the military

objectives that they have been achieving, they are prepared to maintain a long hot war against

Iran because it does present such a powerful adversary to Israel and to all Israelis and

“they will continue to mow the lawn as long as they have the opportunity and there is I think”

a consensus around this goal among much of the Israeli national security establishment at this point in time, it's not purely a Netanyahu-centric effort, Israelis by and large feel as though they can't wait for the threats to come to them, they have to go out and proactively eliminate those threats, they learned this horrific lesson on October 7th and they're not prepared to live with a monster on their doorstep in perpetuity and so they will continue.

There's a mowing the lawn strategy which refers to how Israel for many many years treated Hamas and notably that in the long-wren did not actually work but where when they see a rise in capability in their enemy they bomb, they use other kinds of sometimes more covert means to try to reduce their enemy's capability. Does that actually work with Iran in the long-term because it seems to me that after this war that if Iran is repeatedly bombed by Israel but they

are back in full control of their area and they've rebuilt their weapons programs to some degree, they're going to use the state of Hormuz to force the international community to stop Israel from repeatedly bombing Iran. It's hard for you to imagine Iran just simply accepting among the lawn scenario after this and it's a much more complex thing for Israel to do that to Iran than to try to do that to Hamas and Gaza and again, even doing that to Hamas and Gaza in the long run

was not a strategy that kept Israel safe. I don't think mowing the lawn is a strategy that

“is going to keep Israel safe in the future but I think that they don't see better options at this”

point in time and they're also counting on the fact that the regime will have to contend with a very unhappy, very much impoverished population. It will have to figure out how to rebuild potentially without the support of the international financial system and Iran will be a weaker, more in biddered state in many respects and we don't know what will happen six months from here. We may see the tremors that were created by these attacks produce some fissures within the regime

and actually make it less strenuous and less threatening. We simply don't know and I think the Israelis are prepared to do what they have to do. I don't think it's a strategy for regional peace and that I think is going to be something that creates some strains with their new relationships as much as the Saudis and the Emirates detest this regime. They're going to have to live on it's periphery and they're going to want to avoid the continuation of this crisis even at a lower

clip. The war in Iran is also a second front in this war where you had Hezbollah,

an Iranian proxy in part launching missiles and Israel has undertaken a pretty significant invasion now of Lebanon. I mean the death toll is very, very significant. There is a large amount of troops and material involved in this. I think in America we're really paying attention to what is happening in Iran. But for those who've been hearing about this, how would you describe what is now happening between Israel and Lebanon? I think what's happening in Lebanon

deserves much, much more attention. It's really worrisome. These Israelis are planning to occupy a large swath of territory in the south of Lebanon. We know how that ended the last time in a perpetual war. It contributed to the long-term weakening of the central state, the long-term

people. If Lebanon becomes a failed state, if hundreds of thousands or millions of people are forced from their homes and Israel continues to occupy a significant swath of Lebanese territory,

“then again, I think it's going to be very difficult to build on the nascent Abraham Accords”

to create a real normalization across the region. And it's going to be disastrous for a country that has so much potential, so many educated people, such an incredible rich and diverse history, and it will leave us here in the United States once again tied to an unstable violent Middle East that we can't seem to withdraw from. I want to hold on that point about Hezbollah, because I think it gets at something that felt like a lesson many people seem to have learned after 9/11

that has now been forgotten, which is that you can think you are destroying an enemy and create a vacuum in which more lethal, more ideological, more radical enemies arise. Okay, so someone comes out of American involvement in both Afghanistan and the broader region. Hezbollah comes somewhat out of Israel's invasion of Lebanon, ISIS comes out of the war in Iraq. I just felt there's a very strange level of short-termism and a lot of the discussions have been hearing as if we've

never had the experience before of having western powers or Israeli military power appear to score

victory, and then what emerges later on is more radicalized, more dangerous. It's not respond to negotiation in the way that a normal state would somehow the idea that this could all lead to terror or other forms of asymmetric revenge does not feel very present in the conversation, but as somebody who's kind of formative political period was 9/11, I don't really understand why.

“I think that Americans have put the 9/11 and the wars that were spawned in its aftermath very”

much in their rear-view mirror, and President Trump is very much part of having shifted that conversation. However, you know, it's a very real possibility. We know the Iranians have had relationships with terror networks all around the world. They've had the capability to affect terrorist attacks from Asia to Europe to Latin America, and while we haven't seen a lot of that on American soil in the very near-term, we know that they credibly threaten both Iranian dissidents living in the United States

as well as former senior officials. Some of whom served in the first Trump administration and retained their government protection until President Trump came back into office last January. We began this conversation, but talking in part about the proposed 15-point peace plan from the Trump administration, we talked about the Iranian response to that. One thing you hear from Donald Trump is various reports on how negotiations are going. One thing you hear from the Iranian government is that

“there are no negotiations ongoing. Are there negotiations ongoing?”

There are always negotiations ongoing. I think it's highly unlikely that we have Americans in

Iranians sitting across the table from one another, but there are messages that are being passed. There are efforts that are being launched. And particularly if the President goes forward with his announcements at various points in time that we are simply going to leave once the mission is finished, even if the straight is not open, we do see other actors coming to try to play a larger role, particularly the Chinese, the Pakistanis, others are looking for some sort of an opportunity

to end this crisis, because this will impact the entire world if it plays out for weeks and months unended. How serious are the Pakistani and Chinese efforts here? And as it's from two perspectives, one could they actually create the form in which this is brought to some kind of conclusion. But two, if America launches a ill thought through war with Iran, that then ends in some kind of confusing, somewhat humiliating absence of achieved objectives,

and the people who end it are the Chinese who come in as the adults in the room to sort of help negotiate a settlement. I don't know, if I imagine a historian writing a book on changing role orders in 50 years, that might feel to me like one of those moments when you begin to see the balance of responsibility and weight shifting in the global order.

Well, I think however this ends, it is a critical juncture. It is the end of American global leadership.

critical in the postwar era to preserving stability and security and prosperity in many places.

And what's also interesting is that the timeline for the end of this crisis is very much also influenced by the Chinese, because the President had scheduled a summit in Beijing. He moved that as a result of the war being a bit more protected than he had presumably intended, but that new date for the summit in Beijing is May 14th and 15th, and he would presumably need to have this in his rearview mirror about the time he goes to Beijing, and that will give

all the parties a bit of a stronger hand to try to push for a solution. But it will not be a solution that will probably be driven by the United States at this point in time. President Trump went into this war without a plan for the day after not even a plan for day two or three of the war. And what we now see is that, you know, the rest of the world is going to have to pick up that mantle and try to drive toward a solution for this crisis, because if it continues, it will have

absolutely catastrophic impact. Just thinking through our conversation here, if you imagine a world a month from now, where the war is winding down or has wound down, because America could embarrass the disruption to global energy, helium, fertilizer, etc. supplies. The Iranian regime remains in place, controlling the state of our moves, probably charging different ships, tolls to go through, and, you know, or making particular deals with different countries

that benefit Iran in order to have safe passage through the straight. That feels to me like a war we

“would have lost. Is that wrong? I think that's correct. I don't see a victory in real terms”

at the end of this crisis. We may be able to extricate ourselves without even more catastrophic human losses than have already been experienced, but there is very little evidence that we're going to be able to come out of this war with a different regime in Iran with less control over the straight to foremost, and that is a very dangerous outcome for the long term. The wider implications of the United States having undertaken this action in a way that alienated partners and allies

in the region and all around the world and effectively seeded huge financial benefits to the Russians and potentially seeded some diplomatic opportunity to the Chinese, and it's not clear that President Trump is prepared to sustain American leadership, or that even if he were in the aftermath of this, what appears to be a catastrophic overreach and miscalculation with the attacks on Iran that, in fact, the United States will be trusted to do that by countries around the world.

“It feels like a Suez moment in some respects. And also, I mean, and I think this is one of my other”

concerns, maybe has left a more dangerous Iranian regime that is both learned lessons about what its deterrence capabilities actually are. And it's also learned lessons that negotiations cannot be trusted. We entered into a deal with Iran under the Obama's decision Trump ripped it up. He then negotiated with Iran and bombed them twice during negotiations. So you might end with an Iranian regime, which has learned a lesson that you cannot negotiate with the United States. You cannot

trust the negotiations. Even if you do have a partner, you can work with it. It could just be ripped up by the next administration. Your only true safety is your deterrence capability to impose tremendous pain on the global economy through the state of our moves through attacking infrastructure

throughout the Gulf, data infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and ultimately perhaps trying to

get a nuclear weapon. And so, I mean, a world in which we have somewhat degraded Iranian weapons capability in the near term, but left a regime with that set of lessons in charge for the long term, and with that set of battle-hardened learnings. I mean, that seems, again, not like a

“contribution to world security at the end of this. I think that's exactly what the Iranians”

are driving forward. And at this point in time, it appears as though they may in fact achieve those aims of being stronger at the end of this war, even if the economies have been battered, even if they've lost thousands of their own people, that they believe that their ability to endure the worst, that two technologically superior economically superior adversaries have given them and come out on top, I think will be tremendously emboldening for a regime that has been very

dangerous even at its weaker moments. I think that's a sobering place to end. Always a final question.

of the norm, perhaps. I know you've had a lot of folks talking about Iran lately, and they all

“mentioned some of the great classics in the field, but especially because we're talking about the”

U.S. Iran relationship, I wanted to recommend one. The Twilight War by David Chris, the subtitle

is the secret history of America's 30-year conflict with Iran, so it's obviously a little bit outdated,

but David Chris is a Pentagon historian and he writes about the tanker war period as well as

“you know, other skirmishes between the United States and Iran. I think it's a particularly important”

one for understanding how the history has shaped the crisis. Another one I would recommend is an even older book that was done of the hostage crisis edited by Warren Christopher, of course, served in many senior positions, and really just talked through all of the diplomats,

“the military officials, and the bankers who were played a really important role in helping”

and what was also very protracted and a crisis that diminished the United States and many respects in the world. It's called American hostages in Iran, the conduct of a crisis,

and the third book I'd recommend by an Iranian author, Iranian academic, renowned,

hired, missile, parça, democracy, and Iran, white-filled, and how it might succeed, and I hope that it will in the long term. So you're sad and lonely. Thank you very much. Thank you. This episode of Isoklancha's produced by Roland Ho, fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kates and Claire, and Mary March Locker. Our senior audio engineer is Jeff Gelb, with additional mixing by Alman Savita. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon.

The show's production team also includes Annie Galvin, Marie Cassione, Marina King, Jack McCordic, Kristen Lynn, Emma Kelbeck, and Yon Kobl. Original music by Carol Saburo and Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristen Lynn Simulusky and Shannon Basta. The director of New York Times opinion audio is Annie Rose Strasser.