1320: The Moon | Skeptical Sunday

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I'm your host, Jordan Harbinger, and today I'm here with Skeptical Sunday co-host writer and researcher Jessica Win.

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sprees to bad haircuts, to why your barista was acting such this morning. So the question is, is the moon actually influencing human behavior at all, moods, actions,

“chaos, or are we just telling ourselves, old lunar legends?”

The moon has always had a grip on us, it's right there, it's up there, you can see it,

it shows up on a schedule, it changes shape, it feels important somehow, it has gravity, if you will. So what's actually going on up there? Joining me to help separate real lunar effects from folklore is writer and researcher Jessica Win.

Jessica seems like whenever something goes sideways, like in a bad mood, you get bad luck, you get a weird night, eventually someone shrugs and goes, well, it is a full moon, like that explains it. I know, whatever phase it's in is the cause, right? It's a waxing gibb, so, well, look out, look out for those scorpions, I don't know.

The moon is the most successful scapegoat in human history. It's been blamed for madness, violence, romance, bad decisions, you name it. If something feels chaotic, the moon is a very convenient reason, it can sometimes be like astrology for people who don't believe in astrology. And everyone suddenly becomes extremely confident about the moon's effects, they don't

study it, but, you know, they somehow they know. That's called the priming effect, and once an idea is out there, your brain starts looking for proof, not consciously but automatically. So if your coworker says, heads up, it's a full moon tonight, then your mind shifts into pattern hunting mode, and you start watching for weirdness.

You notice the unusual patient, the strange customer, or like an unhinged email. So it's kind of confirmation bias too, right? Like every time you see one of those, you go, ahaha, see the moon, or whatever. Yeah, sort of. I mean, they're related, they're not exactly the same thing, priming is the setup, it's

the unconscious nudge that puts an idea in your head, confirmation bias is what happens next, when you ignore everything that doesn't support the idea. So priming loads the gun and confirmation bias pulls the trigger kind of like hammers it

“in afterwards, anyway, the analogy falls apart, who cares?”

The priming effect creates the mindset and confirmation bias just reinforces it. So together, they make patterns feel real even when they aren't. With the moon, especially, calm nights don't become stories, but a strange night with a bright full moon gets remembered, repeated, and slowly upgraded to, well, this always happens.

So is there anything to it, because I roll my eyes at all this, but people don't hesitate to like, ah, stuff definitely happens, check the statistics, bro, look it up, right? It's one of those. Well let's start with why the belief makes sense. The moon feels powerful, it's visible, it changes its appearance, it shows up reliably

Every culture has built myths around it, it guided calendars, farming and religious

“observances and rituals, so this cultural importance trained humans over thousands of years”

pre-science to associate the moon with power and influence. Okay, so we're not crazy for feeling like the moon has vibes. I'll ask the most basic question here, why do we even have a moon, because not every planet gets one, poor little castrated, mercury, and Venus, there's no floating balls for them.

And about 4.5 billion years ago, a Mars-sized object called Thea slammed into protoearth.

It wasn't a tap, this was an extinction level collision, and material from Earth's mantle and chunks from Thea blasted into orbit, that debris clumped together and became the moon. And what's wild is, we used to think this took millions of years, but newer simulations suggest it may have happened in just hours, but that's up for debate.

That's pretty interesting. I actually did not know that. So the moon is made of earth's guts and green cheese or whatever. So we're for sure this happened, this is like, it's very exciting. It's very exciting.

Wow. The multiple lines of evidence.

“Moon rocks brought back by Apollo missions, or chemically identical to Earth's mantle.”

It's the same oxygen ratios, titanium, tungsten isotopes, and the moon has almost no iron core. So the less than 2% compared to Earth's, 30%, which makes sense if it formed from surface material. Plus, it lacks volatile elements, like water, because the impact literally vaporize them

into space. Wonder if there was anything living on Earth at that time, or if it was just too early, but anyway, that's a different show, probably. That's a heck of an origin story. So the moon is literally born from interplanetary violence.

Yeah, and that violence changed everything. It's why Earth became habitable. So the moon's sped up Earth's rotation. It's stabilized Earth's axial tilt. Without the moon, the Earth would wobble wildly, which is what Mars does, just swings between

these extreme tilts. I didn't know that. Okay, so that would be devastating for life, because we kind of need some stability. People think like, I'll winter and summer the difference is crazy, but we don't have negative 200 degrees and positive 200 degrees or whatever.

So we owe the moon the minimum. We owe it a thank you card. Yeah, a minimum.

Because it does some genuinely incredible things.

Okay, so what does the moon actually do besides give yoga instructors an L.A. something to discuss over matcha lattes? Well, tides are the big one, you know, the moon's gravity pulls on Earth's oceans, creating two bulges. Oh, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, get it, all right,

I'm done. One on the side facing the moon and one on the opposite side due to inertia. So the ocean is sloshing in two directions at once. Correct. This gives us predictable rises and falls, and the sun gets involved too.

In the sun and moon line up, during full moons and new moons, you get spring tides, higher highs, lower lows, when they're at right angles during quarter moons, you get neap tides which are much calmer. So the predictability is why like surfers know what weekday and even hour will be best for waves.

So spring tide, that has nothing to do with the season. Nothing spring as in the tide springs forth. Okay, some places experience tidal changes of 50 feet or more, it may be really wild. Yeah, that explains why the oceans move. So this is the part where somebody takes a real thing tides and applies it to a completely

different thing. Your body and is like, well, humans are mostly water.

“I remember going over something like this when we talked about astrology and one of”

the arguments that pro astrology people make is like, these are super powerful, galactic

size magnets and you don't think a magnet affects your brain and the answer is no because

the magnetic force is like, minuscule especially at distance and so no, that argument doesn't hold up at all and also magnets on your brain when you're born definitely don't dictate whether or not you stay single or get married or get a promotion next week or something, right? That's just totally ridiculous.

But this sounds similar, right? Because they're like, well, humans are 98 percent water. So if the moon affects the tides, of course it's sloshing around watering your body and your cells in a different way and yada, yada, yada. Right.

I mean, you can sort of understand just how people can make that assumption. I can follow the logic, it's just that it's probably not true. But then if you think about it, right? It's when physics comes in yelling like, no, stop what you're saying because tides aren't about water.

They're about scale and differential pull across something huge. But sure, let's do the math on this really common claim because it does use facts.

Those are both true statements. When people then say, therefore, the moon must pull on the water in our bodies and effect us, it's a false equivalency. But see this on social media here in casual conversation, even from educated people. It just, I don't know, it feels like it should be true.

Right.

The problem is it demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of how gravity and title forces

work. Critical part is the scale. So title forces aren't just about gravity, they're about differential gravity and that's different. They depend on the difference in gravitational pull across an object.

So this difference in gravitational force across a large body, like the ocean, creates title bulges, there is a title force formula. It's proportional to mass time size divided by distance cubed. Okay. So complex.

Not doing that now.

“The size of the object being affected is crucial.”

So title forces get stronger as objects get bigger. They get weaker very rapidly with distance. That's the distance cubed part. Okay. So if the moon is pulling strongly on the northern part of a notion and less so on the southern

part of the ocean, the water sloshes in that direction, that totally makes sense. But your body being relatively small, we're not sloshing.

We're not sloshing anywhere.

All right. It's just that oceans are massive enough for these title forces to matter. Sure. Ocean water can move freely across enormous basins, like these huge connected regions of the ocean that spans thousands of miles.

Your body isn't like that. Water in your body is contained in cells, blood vessels, organs. It all holds water in place. So even if there were a title force, there's not. But even if there were, your body structure would prevent any movement.

Your body's not a water balloon. It's a highly organized compartmentalized system. You're just too small for title forces to matter. Right. So my blood is not responding to the moon phases and making waves, because it's being pumped

around by my heart and other things in my body. Definitely not. Right. Your circulatory system is a closed loop with pumps that can completely overwhelm any external gravitational effect.

So across the ocean is thousands of miles across the human body. It's five or six feet. And across the cell, it's like, I don't know. What do you measure that in micro heat? Yeah.

Yeah. So there's no effect on us at all, really. None. You're not a tiny ocean compared to Earth's 8,000 mile diameter. Six feet is infinitesimally small.

So size matters. I knew it once again. I tell you this every episode. Yes. Scale is everything.

Okay. So Earth's oceans are just perfect. They're just the perfect size. Perfect. Yeah.

The water on the moon facing side is about 8,000 miles closer to the moon than water on the far side. Okay. That difference matters at ocean scale. So the gravitational pull varies measureably across that distance.

The result is those water bulges going toward and away from the moon. So every day forces you experience are millions of time stronger than that.

“What do you mean every day forces that feels like a bold claim?”

I don't know. Tell me more about that. Well, think about it. A swimming pool doesn't show tides. A small lake doesn't show tides.

No, the great lake shows minimal tides. Yeah. Two to four inch. Yeah. Two to four inches max.

Okay. And that's because it's across hundreds of miles. Right. Or put a cup of water on the table. That water is the same percentage H2O as your body.

Does the cup show tides? No. The water slashed toward the moon. No. I mean, why not?

I mean, I guess if you could measure something on like a tiniest of scales, you might find something, but then also then go down to the cellular level and it's like not there. And even if it were to be overwhelmed by asmotic pressure or something, right? So these things are all too small for tidal forces to have any measurable effect at all. Right.

And look, if you're sitting next to someone, their gravitational pull on you is stronger than the moon's tidal effect on you. Okay. That's a good way of putting it. So the gravitational pull from my mac book or whatever is probably as strong as a tidal

force that the moon has, or the stronger.

“So by this logic, I should be tracking human phase effects, right?”

If it sits next to my wife or something and she's pulling on me. Yeah. Right. Like, oh, sorry. I did that wrong.

My coworker was sitting too close. Storing the meetings. Exactly.

The belief is basically that the moon is out there pulling on us, pulling on our bodies,

pulling on our blood. But somehow that effects our moods enough to make people act differently. That's the claim that lunar gravity is subtly influencing your behavior. Okay. Other than the fact that you just explained why that's not really possible, it does feel

I guess.

But here's where else it falls apart.

“Even the building you're sitting in right now exerts more gravitational force on you than”

the moon's tidal effect does. Sure. So if gravity worked that way, architecture would be controlling our moods. Okay, open floor plans suddenly make a lot more sense. Everybody puts it into perspective.

That's interesting. Right. You're working in a skyscraper. So it blocks to the moon's effects. You know, if you want to...

Sure. We're working in basement. Yeah. Yeah. That's so interesting.

It's all kinds of things have more of an effect on you. Your phone versus the moon. I mean, forget it.

“When you're holding your phone, it's gravitational pull on you is stronger than the moon's”

differential tidal force because your phone is much, much closer to you. So my phone is influencing me more than the moon. Even when it's off. Even when it's off, by orders of magnitude, gravity falls off with the square of distance. So tidal forces fall off with the tube of distance.

So distance really kills the vibe. Got it. Very, very fast. Yeah.

Earth's gravity is 9.8 meters per second squared.

So that's constant and overwhelming. The moon's additional pull on you is about three millions of that. Wow. Harrison, like writing an elevator creates acceleration forces thousands of times stronger, walking upstairs to, turning your head quickly, creates stronger forces on the fluid in

your inner ear and anything lunar ever could. So the moon is not tugging on me emotionally. Gravity-wise, it barely knows I'm here. But the moon does play a huge role on a planetary scale. So it acts like a gyroscopic stabilizer for Earth's axial tilt, which is about 23.5

degrees. The tilt is the reason we have seasons. You know, if you've ever looked at a globe, that little lean, that's it. So without the moon, that tilt would wobble wildly. That kind of instability would not be good for life as we know it.

Right. And just like with humans, extreme wobbling leads to instability. Too much balance, not enough support. I know some people would say problem, actually. Yeah.

I know some guys with that problem too. It's an inclusive wobble. But if the Earth's tilt were unstable and wobbled, it would cause extreme climate shifts, ice ages, and heat spikes. So this stability gives us consistent predictable seasons over millions of years and allows

for stable climate patterns. These make Earth more habitable, and it's why we get seasons instead of chaotic weather. Yeah, that sounds deeply unpleasant. Another effect is the moon is slowly slowing Earth down. Yeah, that feels personal somehow.

It's going on there. It's called tidal friction, and the moon pulls on Earth's oceans, and even the solid crust, creating those tidal bulges, Earth's little love handles. They are like Earth's little love handles, and because Earth spins faster than the moon orbits, it drags those bulges slightly ahead of the moon, and the friction between

the water, sea bed, and Earth's crust turns that dragon to heat. So that friction, the tidal friction, it acts like a break on Earth's rotation.

“So does that mean that our days are getting longer by some measure?”

Yeah, about two milliseconds per century.

But 600 million years ago, that means a day was only 22 hours long.

Oh, wow. So meanwhile, that same energy gets transferred to the moon, pushing it farther away. It's got an inch and a half per year, and this is all measurable physics. Yeah, that seems like a more significant difference than two milliseconds per century. So the moon is slowly backing out of this relationship.

I guess I can't really blame it. Kind of, but very politely, you know, think Homer Simpson sinking into the bushes, but over billions of years. So does that change how much light we get or how much moonlight we get or anything like that?

Yeah, it's more like stretching the day. So as Earth spins more slowly, days get longer by milliseconds. Moonlight gets dimmer, tides weaken, and eventually no more total solar eclipses will happen. Will it get to the point where the sun and the moon just won't align it all? Right, over very long time scales, that affects how much moonlight reaches us.

So a full moon today gives about 0.1 to 0.3 lux of light. Light by comparison is over 100,000 lux, but Moonlight is still bright enough to cast shadows. And over time, that light is slowly fading and seeing the moon shift in shape and brightness makes it easy to notice something real, changing, and just assume that it might be doing something to us.

Yeah, sure. I mean, Moonlight is a real physical stimulus, it's actual light, it's not a mystical force. What's different across lunar phases is simply how much reflected sunlight reaches

So it's not the phase, it's the brightness. Right, it's just reflected sunlight. And we do see biological effects in species which are particularly light-sensitive, especially in animals that live in tidal zones, so coastal ecosystems and many marine species have evolved around tidal rhythms, not the moon directly.

So animals do respond to the moon? Yeah, through light and tides, not mystical energy. So corals for one, they spawn in massive synchronized events, time to lunar cycles. On the great barrier reef corals release eggs and sperm a few nights after the full moon and spring, it's just the schedule.

Grunyan fish like squiggle onto California beaches during spring tides to reproduce. So low low worms swarm once a year during the last quarter moon in October, it's just nature's calendar.

“Do we know the mechanisms behind this, how do animals actually know what's happening?”

It's a combination of very ordinary light cues, tides, and internal biological clocks. So nocturnal animals are especially sensitive to moonlight. Brighter nights make predators more effective, so prey species often reduce activity during full moon's, owls hunt more when visibility improves, sea turtle hatchlings, even navigate by moonlight reflecting off the ocean, all very straightforward mechanisms.

Okay, so no fancy metaphysical astrology stuff, just light basically. Right, light changes behavior, but here's the key distinction, moonlight affects behavior. The lunar phase is just how much of the moon's surface is lit from our point of view. It doesn't exert any influence on its own, which is disappointing to some people because it's comforting to blame celestial objects instead of ourselves for all of our woes.

I mean, I wouldn't that be nice, but the moon's innocent turns out weird the drama. So if you've ever blamed a bad decision on the moon, good news, it wasn't the moon. Bad news. That was all you. We'll be right back.

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Oh, my life, I've heard people say it's always crazier during a full moon, right?

ERs, hospitals are supposedly more crowded on the full moon. 911 dispatchers say they're busier, everybody's got a story. So is there any lunar effect on things like this really? No. But the people saying it believe it sincerely, and they're trained professionals who

actual statistics, the effect just isn't there.

“One study looked at hundreds of thousands of ER visits, no full moon effect.”

Psychiatric emergencies tracked over multiple years, no correlation, trauma admissions, nothing. Huh. I've also heard people swear maternity words spike during full moon. Is there data on that? There's gotta be.

That's actually been tested a lot because it is such a common claim. Other's millions of babies born every month from France to North Carolina to India, hundreds of thousands of births a day, zero correlation. And the more emergencies that are claimed like more emergency sea sections during full moons also show nothing.

No increase, no pattern. The claim that more pregnant women's water breaks during full moons with specifically

studied, specifically tested multiple times, and it always fails.

The belief is obsessively studied because it's easy to measure, and it just never holds up. Not even a tiny blip. Nothing. So there's another popular myth that the moon affects blood pressure, and that sounds like

what you just explained with the title forces, and that's false to I'm guessing. But I'm just surprised how much this one comes up. You know the thing is your blood pressure changes constantly, with activity, stress, food, even your posture. So these changes are measured down to millimetres of mercury.

If the moon affected blood pressure, the change would be measured in micro units, far below anything physiological. But your blood pressure changes more when you simply stand up out of a chair than it could ever change from something lunar.

“So I've heard people say that you should avoid medical procedures in surgery during the”

full moon. Also BS, right?

Yeah, people claim it causes increased bleeding.

This has also been studied. Thousands of procedures studied over years, no increase in bleeding, no increase in complications, no problems with recovery. That belief comes from ancient, shumeral medicine. What is humoral medicine?

So it was a really popular medical theory in the West, from ancient Greece up through the 19th century. The idea was that illness came from an imbalance in the body's fluids, what they called the four humors, which were blood, flim, yellow bio and black bio. Gross.

Yeah. And people believe these four bodily fluids controlled all health and temperament. They also believe the moon affected fluids like tides. So things like wound healing, bleeding, and even surgery were thought to depend on the lunar phase.

I guess that's somewhat reasonable if you thought tides worked that way on human bodies.

So there's all very pre-science vibes. Yeah, very, very much so. The specific belief was that lunar phases affected bleeding, healing, and surgical outcomes. But that belief hasn't just been tested once. It's been tested repeatedly across decades with these large data sets.

But analysis, studies of many studies have completely disproven it. But the belief still lingers somehow. Some surgeons still schedule around the moon. Some patients still request surgery, be scheduled around lunar phases. It's crazy.

Geez. If there were an effect, these massive data sets would capture it. But they don't. At all. So maybe people are, maybe they're a little moon struck.

I mean, well, the connection between behavior and the moon is ancient. So a lot of these myths, they stick because people have been repeating them forever, like any good folktale, right?

“And I even know doctors that'll tell me a folktale, and I'm like, is that true?”

And they're like, oh, that's like something you heard from. Nobody heard some crap from your parents when you were a kid. And then when you're 40, you're like, I should Google this. And it's just total bullshit. That's not true.

I mean, it's a thing, really strong oral tradition holds. And beliefs around the moon go further back than you realize, even the language gives it a way. The word lunatic comes from Latin. Luna means moon.

Tick is Latin for touched. So originally it literally meant moon touched. So the idea of the moon messes with your mind is baked right into our folktabularie from the jump. Yeah, totally.

Ancient cultures believe the moon caused madness, crime, emotional instability. Women were often central to that story. You know, women out at night, women's cycles, intuition, healing. Only every woman became, you know, a witch by the moon light. Well, there are women today wrapped up with the moon and cycles and they call themselves

witches, as both, right? That's a thing. Yeah. Yeah. That's definitely a thing.

But now it's framed as, you know, empowerment or spirituality, instead of suspicion. And the claims about spells and the moon's powers today from these modern witchy

crime.

But police officers make full moon claims, too.

“If there's more moon light, is there more violence?”

I mean, it kind of seems plausible, not because of metaphysical reasons, but people are out later. There's more light. So they get up to no good or they drink more. I don't know.

I'm not sure. I mean, it is a good theory until you look at the actual crime data. So homicides, salts, domestic violence, robberies, decades of records across lots of cities show no consistent relationship with lunar phases. One study looked at four years of crime data, just in Ohio, no effect, and a 2009 meta-analysis

reviewed multiple studies and found again nothing. I know firefighter say it, 911 dispatcher say it, EMT say it, so the belief reinforces itself across professions, but there's just no pattern. So does anything predict busy ER nights or more police activity? Yeah, more boring things, nothing lunar, hospital admissions, and ER visits, show weekly

patterns, Monday morning heart attacks are more common, it's thought to be returning

to work stress. Depressing. Yeah. It's horrible. Traffic accidents increase on specific days and times.

You can probably imagine. Yeah. Friday nights. Saturday night when people are dumb and drinking. Right.

Exactly. After the bar closes. These patterns are predictable and consistent. There's a clear, you know, weekend effect where more recreational and alcohol-related incidents happen.

That's predictable. It's all predictable, completely. Hospitals, police and emergency services all know when chaos is coming. So they prepare for things like holidays, major events, even pay days. You know, New Year's Eve, Fourth of July, Super Bowl Sunday, these move the numbers, not

lunar phases. But a chaotic ER shift is explained by day of the week, time of day, local events, weather, holidays, staffing levels matter. But then someone says, hey, it's a full moon, that becomes the explanation. So we ignore the mundane factors and grab on to the cosmic one.

You know, there's a lunacy myth in psychiatry that's been thoroughly debunked. Modern studies just show no increase in psychiatric admissions, suicide rates, or self harm incidents, during full moons. Crisis hotline calls don't spike either, but you hear people say that. Yeah, you do.

“I swear I've heard that some places used to staff up for the full moon or whatever, right?”

That's 100% true, despite no evidence, and then we get a scheduling effect. So when hospitals staff up for full moons, more staff means more observations, more documented incidents. See, we were right to staff up. Right, okay. So, but in this case, they've created the pattern they were looking for.

Yeah, exactly. It's not science. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. So the distribution is random for all the things people claim happen more frequently under a full moon.

So this is the part that I still struggle with. These are trained professionals. They work with people. They work with data. Why doesn't the evidence land?

It's a great question. It's a great question. Well, I don't think it's an intelligence problem. It's like a human brain problem. It's these systemic routines, and he's learned procedures and the stories.

Oh, good. That's worse. But I guess we see it all the time on the show, right, especially on skeptical Sunday. Because a ton of these topics come down to, hey, cognitive bias actually exists. Yeah, sure.

And it's because they work nights, so they see the moon often. Okay. If you work nights, you're missing daylight, and this affects you way more than the moon phase, plus their jobs are stressful, can be unpredictable, and emotionally intense. And humans hate that kind of randomness.

So anecdotes are shared and reinforced among colleagues.

“You know, remember that crazy full moon last month, because the calm nights don't become”

stories.

I know what I've seen with my own lying eyes always beats statistics every time.

Right. It's subconscious confirmation bias, right? You don't realize you're doing it. It makes you notice and remember information that confirms existing beliefs and ignore or forget information that contradicts them.

So even when confronted with the data, personal experience feels more real, you know? Yeah, okay. So this is the part where I have to tell a personal example that makes me look like a bit of an idiot. But when I was younger, my mom, who's a very reasonable person, my whole family, we lived

on the street, and there was like a main road that turned onto a side street, like most people. And there's a street light in that little turn, right? Because it's a turn, you want to look at the street like that. So we would turn and come home in a lot of the time that light would turn off as we turned

under it. And it was like, whoa, as weird.

in that area in my mom would be like, oh, that's a thing that happens to me all the time. And then we're heard father passed away. She's like, oh, it's my father saying, hello, I mean, she was just sort of tongue-in-cheek with that part. She was like, look, that light turns off.

It's like a special thing that happens for me, you know? Then as I, when I started driving and I went to college and stuff like that and I started coming home late, I also would notice that that light would turn off for me and I would be like, mom, I'd have the light thing too, and she'd be like, oh, runs in the family or whatever.

And so this is all sort of pre-internet. Later when the internet became more of a thing and there were news groups and science discussions and stuff.

“I remember being like, okay, what's the real reason for this?”

So I posted about it, and that's when somebody basically had to explain what confirmation bias is. And then like, you don't notice the thousand times that light didn't turn off when you drove under it. You only noticed the time that it did.

Even if it's one in ten times, you're like, that light, there it goes, turns off when I drive under it. You just don't notice when a light that's in an area with other lights doesn't turn off. Why would you notice that? And then another guy on the same board, this is like a news group or whatever, another guy

chimed in and he's like, hey, this is my time to shine.

So here's the thing, I build these and inside the light.

There's something called, I think it's called a solenoid or something. And it's some electronic component. And the problem is older ones that are like the ones in street lights that are on all the time, they get hot. And what they are programmed to do when they get hot is turn off so they don't melt.

And it's like, oh, okay. So the street light turning off is totally random. It has to do with how hot the solenoid or whatever inside gets. That plus confirmation bias makes you think you have a mystical power to turn off lights when you drive under them.

How bummed for you, you got the stuff. I was pretty happy because I don't like the idea of like super natural stuff. There's always an explanation for things. But that was sort of my entree into being like, every time somebody thinks they have some sort of super power or something is too crazy of a coincidence.

It's probably something like this. And it is, actually. And it is, it's why showing people data often doesn't work too because they've just programmed

“their mind to think that's why that light is going off.”

Yeah. And the data is forgettable, experiences are memorable. So people often double down when confronted with contradicting evidence.

The moon is basically the perfect trigger for our pattern seeking brain.

You know, it's regular, it's visible, and it's culturally loaded. And pattern seeking is what we're all about. We can't help it. You see, it's not, you know, humans evolved to detect patterns. It's a survival mechanism because it's better to see patterns that aren't there than

miss real danger. You know, we're biased to our finding connections. And the moon shows up like a giant spotlight and our minds go, something's happening. And we're only really watching the moon half the time, right? And night, I don't see what's going on there during the day.

That's the spotlight effect. So full moons are bright, beautiful, and noticeable, new moons are invisible. So unless you live somewhere with no light pollution, you're not consciously tracking new moons, which is increasingly rare as we discussed in episode 1237, right?

“You got very few places have no light pollution.”

So yeah, I don't know. I'm not tracking the moon at all. If I needed it, I would look at some website that does that, I guess. If I could put on that planet's app. There you go.

Yeah, so when a chaotic night happens during a new moon, you don't connect it to the lunar cycle. You blame literally anything else. But when something dramatic happens during a full moon, it feels connected. And you can see this when people try to match big events to lunar phases.

You know, for example, less than 50% of the moon was illuminated on 9/11, so that didn't get blamed, right? Meanwhile, November 28, 2012, is known for being the most peaceful day ever recorded in New York City. There just was no murders, there were no shootings, no stabbing, and it was a full moon.

But people don't want to talk about that because it goes against there. Right. It's the craziest on a full moon. I have to say how crazy is that there's one day over a decade ago where it's like, hey, nobody got murdered shot or stabbed in the city.

And it's not like, oh, there was no crime. I mean, there was still crime, which is that nobody died or got shot or got stabbed.

There were no murders or attempted murders, basically.

One day, 13 years ago, I mean, that's just to me, like, I need to celebrate it. Yikes. So catastrophe doesn't line up with the phase of the moon. Yeah, not at all. There's just no correlation to catastrophe and the moon's appearance.

I guess this is massive observational bias because you're only testing her theory once a month during full moon. Right. And this creates what psychologists call allusory correlation, seeing a relationship or none exists. So the relationships that might exist aren't as exciting as, well, traffic

sucks must be a full moon or he's aware of or whatever.

I will connect dots that aren't even there in order to create those patterns.

“So elusory correlation is the technical term for our moon problem.”

Yeah, it's the term was coined by psychologists, Chapman and Chapman in 1967. It's all extensively studied from full moon to lunar eclipse. Do lunar eclipses have special effects? People get pretty excited about these. Oh, I mean, they're cool to look at for sure.

So, you know, a lunar eclipse is when Earth blocks sunlight from reaching the moon. They happen about twice a year and they're visible from large portions of Earth. They're visually dramatic. And it's a entertainment for humans, you know, but it's not physiological. But their historically significant eclipses were terrifying to ancient cultures.

They thought the sun and nor moon was disappearing and that was a really bad omen. And this fear persists in modern eclips beliefs. You know, even though we understand the mechanics now, some believe lunar eclipses have even stronger effects than regular full moons. There's claims that are made about emotional intensity, spiritual significance, transformation.

Some people claim health effects or behavioral changes, even impacts on pregnancy. But the reality of a lunar eclipse is just, what? Nothing. It's just Earth's shadow falling on the moon. The moon doesn't gain or lose power.

It just receives less reflected sunlight temporarily. So, there's no change in energy, there's no mechanism for behavioral change. Still beautiful, though. I'll give it that. Yeah.

Incredibly, it's just not biologically relevant. So rare coincides with rare. If something unusual happens during an unusual eclipse, we connect them. Well, of course, I felt weird. There was a blood moon, or whatever.

Right. You know, this rarity just makes it more memorable thereby strengthening confirmation bias. And so eclipses are beautiful astronomical events. They demonstrate orbital mechanics and give us perspective on our place in the universe. They don't affect human behavior anymore than regular full moons, which is to say, not

at all. So enjoy them for what they are, but don't add mystical effects that just aren't there. This is all just another belief inherited from ancient medicine. Got it. So the moon isn't causing chaos.

Our brains are, which is arguably more impressive and a little more unsettling. What's up with the blood moon? What is that? Because that sounds ominous. I mean, what's that all about?

The blood moon is just a specific time of year when the eclipse happens. And it makes it turn like a blood red. There has to be three bodies aligned during the full moon when the eclipse happens. So it's really specific things lined up in space. Yeah.

“That's something straight out of a horror movie, though, right?”

Right. The first blood moon. And then everyone's racing to, I don't know, make sure that they can't complete the ritual. Turns out the moon is not pulling under blood, your brain, or your vibes, which means you

don't get to blame celestial objects for your terrible personality anymore. While we sit with that uncomfortable truth, let's take a quick break. We'll be right back. This episode is sponsored and part by Wayfair. Up until recently our backyard, not dialed in.

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All of the deals discount codes and ways to support the show are searchable and clickable on the website at jordanharbinger.com/deals. Now, for the rest of Skeptical Sunday. All right, so do we have any relationship with the moon, what does it mess with, tides, and what?

Well, it's stuff we ignore.

I mean, there is some irony here, because we obsess over the moon's mystical influence. Meanwhile, we ignore or downplay factors that actually are affected, like barometric pressure. That's measurable, it's documented, it's significant, but it sounds less romantic, so it doesn't capture our imagination the same way. How was that related to the moon?

“Well, the moon's gravity, it doesn't just cause bulges in the oceans.”

It has the same effect on the atmosphere. So it can slightly change barometric pressure. An air pressure changes, have documented effects on human physiology. So barometric pressure is an underrated influence on us. Many people are sensitive to pressure changes, so drops in barometric pressure can trigger

headaches and migraines. Arthritis sufferers often report increased pain before storms, and that's when the pressure drops. Or if you've ever broken a bone, you might have felt it. So those forces are thousands of times stronger than any lunar effect.

Yep, we don't often track barometric phases.

Yeah, I've never heard anyone discuss it that way.

No, maybe we should, though, because some study suggests low pressure systems are linked to fatigue and depression and some people. Pressure changes affect our sinus pressure, fluid balance, oxygen levels, even how our hair grows. Huh, so things we actually experience in our body as well.

Right. This place, the moon's effect on us gets nuanced, is with our sleep. So moonlight is bright enough to mess with melatonin. Even when it's a fraction of the sun's light, those photons hit your retina. They suppress melatonin and they affect your sleep.

So it's not gravity or energy or vibes. That's an argument for those blue blockers. Everyone's like, oh, that doesn't do anything. I'm like, I don't know, man. When I put sun glasses or blue blockers on, I freaking get so tired so fast, but if I'm looking

at a bright screen or my phone, I stay awake till 2 o'clock in the morning. No problem. And it's all about the light. Yeah. You know, it's the same thing that we mentioned effects the wildlife as well.

So the moon isn't controlling your sleep. You're curtains are controlling your sleep. Yeah. It's absolutely how dark your room is and how much artificial light you're surrounded by, too.

You know, street lights, phones, screens. The moon just happens to be a natural light source. But it can affect sleep if it's coming through your window. This is not mystical. It's just light.

And blackout curtains solve the problem. You don't need to cleanse your crystals. You need better window treatments. So no mysticism. It's just lighten your eyes.

It's not lunar magic. And it's about coincidences.

“For a long time, I believe if a woman went off the grid, her menstrual cycle would link”

to the phases of the moon. But then you start to think about it. And the average menstrual cycle is about 28 days. The lunar cycle is about 29 and a half. That feels meaningful.

It does. The numbers feel close. There's intuitive appeal. An ancient culture's notice the similarity and assumed a connection. But there's no evidence moonlight ever influenced ovulation.

And large studies tracking real cycles show no synchronization. So if cycles were moon-linked, periods would occur at the same lunar phase. They don't. A large study was done in the 80s. No correlation between menstrual and lunar phase.

In 2013, a study with detailed tracking of women's cycles was done. No relationship. A woman's cycle length, which can be anywhere between 21 to 35 days, makes consistent lunar sink impossible. I'm still stuck on the light blockers thing.

People wrote in, they were like, these are BS. These are BS. The eye strain stuff, the claims they make on a lot of the websites for it. Those are not necessarily true. But if light suppresses melatonin, which it does, you can find science that shows that

light from screens also does that. And usually, I just feel they need to defend this because I recommend them to the whole show. I feel like if people try them, there's no context. The primary use case for me is, at night, when I'm on my phone looking at something

or if I'm working late night, you know, I don't want to be.

going to be out until 10 30 or 11. And I'm like, I don't want to be full on blasted with that. I'm going to show up in blue blockers and kind of hang out for a bit or a late dinner. I'll hang out for a bit and then I'll go to bed and I fall asleep right away because it doesn't take me all that time to have my eyes adjust.

And it's just, I don't know, look, they're scientific back home for that. I found it specifically because I didn't want to recommend something that was bunk anyway. And on the opposite end too, there's studies that say, if you wear sunglasses too much, it's a part of the opposite thing because you're not getting natural light into your eyes.

There's all kinds of thoughts on that too, like, don't always wear sunglasses.

No, just at night when I'm before I'm trying to do the wind down, go to sleep. Anyway, so the similarity in cycle length that you just mentioned, man, that makes it feel true. The whole women's cycle moon cycle thing. I know, but then someone in report feeling more connected to the moon, which is valid.

That's so sciencey. It's as a personal experience, right, but it's not a biological mechanism.

“If your period happens during a full moon once or twice, you remember it.”

It's just more confirmation bias. Okay, so what about pets? There's something there, right? People swear their dogs and cats get weird about it. What's going on there?

Yeah, that's a big one, but veterinary ERs show the same pattern as human ones. No, lunar effect.

We see the same variables affecting animal care professionals as human health care workers, though.

Dogs don't lose their mind either then. No, if an animal is outside at night, right or night can change their activity, more light equals more movement, but again, that's light, not the lunar phase itself. Okay. There's no documented evidence that dogs, cats, or other domestic pets act differently

during full moons. There's internet forums full of anecdotes, but plural of anecdotes isn't data, so... True. If you're in a windowless room, you're not going to see those same changes.

“Right, no wear wolves transforming under the moon.”

Of course not, but the origins of wear wolves come from ancient European folklore, and it taps into a deep human fear of losing control, becoming bestial, something dangerous. The full moon makes symbolic sense as a trigger. It's a bright night, things that are usually hidden, become visible, the moon itself appears to transform, so it feels logical that

it might transform other things, but what started as this metaphor eventually became literal

in folklore. Don't tell me people still believe in wear wolves, though. This is like the most common goal. I looked. I looked.

I did not come across anyone, but you know who knows, but when people say, "Oh, you get crazy during full moons," it's the same underlying belief, so something transforms when the moon is full. The mythology didn't disappear. We've just replaced wear wolves with.

I'm just more emotional or energetic or weird, or whatever, during full moons. So what about farm animals, livestock? There's a lot of old farmer wisdom about livestock behavior during full moons. Yeah, and there's been scientific studies on the moon and livestock. There, again, no documented effects on cattle, horses, sheep, chickens, egg production, breeding

success, you know, feeding behavior, all of it. None show lunar patterns when properly studied, and lunar phase independent of visibility does not affect animal behavior. So for example, a full moon on a cloudy night versus a clear night, the light matters, not the phase itself.

So if we're talking a little bit of sunlight, does the change of moon light effect plan

“should we be lunar gardening, you remember the old farmer's almanac?”

It's got all these strong feelings about planting by the moon. Right. I mean, it's a very old tradition that goes back thousands of years across multiple cultures to plant above ground crops, during waxing moons, root crops, during waning moons. The idea being that the moon gravity will move water and soil like tides.

The difference of this is really mixed, but I found when reputable researchers control for temperature, moisture, and soil conditions, lunar effects totally disappear. Okay. So it's the weather, not the moon's surprise surprise. Right.

Who knew? Control studies comparing plants grown by lunar calendar, verse random planting, show no difference in germination rates, growth rates, or even yields. So why does the tradition persist at all, by the way, did they still put out the farmers almanac?

Do we know? They just announced the 2026 edition will be its last. Hmm. They know. Kind of sad.

Slow demand, firm. For nonsense. We will farming technology. But it's just all based on tradition, you know, grandpa did it this way and had good harvest.

And planting times in almanacs, often coincide with good weather patterns for specific regions.

But when lunar planting, you know, quote-unquote, works, it's remembered.

Failures are attributed to other factors. So many farmers continue traditions, even while understanding they're not mechanistic. So the harm is minimal, though. If it encourages people to garden, it's not causing real problems. There's a whole bio-dynamic farming movement, which takes lunar agriculture, even further,

with additional mystical elements. It has no scientific support, but it's really popular among some organic farmers. I mean, that said, if lunar gardening is getting people outside, touching plants, I mean,

“I think it's mostly harmless, as long as we don't pretend it's physics or biology.”

It's just interesting to see how pre-scientific traditions get repackaged as alternative wisdom. Alternative wisdom, like crystal charging and moonlight in the moon, water trends, I see all over social media, social media is deep into this. Oh, so deep, lunar hair cutting is a big one these days, have you seen this?

No, obviously not.

The hashtag is over like a billion views, so the idea is that you cut your hair during

a new moon for growth, a full moon for strength and a waning moon to slow growth. So the thing is, our hair growth is controlled by genetics, yeah, our hormones, our diet. The moon has zero effect, but some salons now charge more for a nighttime full moon cut. Okay, you know, I've got to ask, what if I want the hair on my head to grow more, but I want the hair elsewhere to stay short.

Do I wax during a waning moon, but I go to my barber during a new moon? What's going on here? I mean, your schedule is pretty complicated already, but short, throw moon waxes on your couch. Yeah, I need to see Coco on Tuesday.

You don't understand. It's important. May charging you a thousand dollars. I'm just going to end up getting banned from European wax center. That's going to happen.

Sir, we've asked you not to come in when you don't have an appointment.

You don't get it. It's a waxing gibbus. I need this shit ripped out now. Oh, man. Alright, I feel, you know, I just don't feel bad for whoever's paying for this stuff.

“So to be clear, all the crystal moon charging stuff is clearly not, I think we've done”

crystals. I mean, it's not since, yeah. Yeah. I mean, as far as crystals go, it's all nonsense, of course. Crystals don't absorb lunar energy or get cleansed by moonlight.

It's just not how it works. No mechanism exists for the moon to charge objects with energy, but if that kind of rituals good for you spiritually fine, just don't call it science. Same with charging water under the full moon, which has become a thing, like social media has amplified these practices enormously.

Oh, yeah. Instagram, TikTok, full of moon water, tutorial. I mean, moon water. That's literally just water that sat outside. Right.

So most water. Most water. I've seen the claims that full moon water has special properties or healing energy. It doesn't. Right.

“It doesn't gain special molecular structure or properties.”

In fact, in science, moon water is a real term, but it refers to ice or molecules on the moon that provide evidence water once existed there. Some people say a moon water event is a meaningful ritual and that it helps them feel centered. What do you think about that?

That's valid. That's how that makes you feel. But don't confuse that with a scientific physical claim. You know, if anyone says moon water, cure zillness, run. That's misinformation.

Sure. When mystical explanations replace physical understanding, that creates scientific illiteracy and that can be expensive. People sell moon charged products at premium prices. People are buying pre-charged by the moon products.

That's hilarious. It's a whole category on Etsy. My God. Your crystals, oils, sprays, all infused with lunar energy during specific moon phases for various rituals.

There's one product that has a warning to avoid charging certain crystals in moon light. I would love to know what they think is going to happen if you do. Sounds legit. Nothing speaks cosmic truth, like an Etsy listing. Am I right?

What do you think? Am I astrophysicist? Amazing. That's from like the Bachelor Australia or something. I hope it's staged and that she has a great sense of humor.

But you know. You'll like that was genuine. She probably sells moon charged crystals on Etsy for a living, yeah. Definitely. I mean, you can have meaningful rituals without making false scientific claims.

of people.

“So moon beliefs have evolved, but they haven't disappeared.”

You know, we've gone from the moon causes lunacy to the moon charges my crystals.

It's a different language, but it's the same fundamental misunderstanding of lunar influence. It just shows how pseudoscience adapts to cultural trends. The core error is still attributing properties to the moon that it doesn't have debunking all this. It makes me worry that it's taking away some of the magic.

People love the idea of being connected to the cosmos. I mean, even before you're like, oh, we surveyed women and they reported feeling connected to the moon. Like, okay. Fine.

We are connected to the cosmos, just we take it to a strange place to get you far. Yeah. But you can keep wondering without inventing fake mechanisms. The complex interplay of weather, light, biology, and social factors is fascinating. So understanding actual causes is more empowering than blaming the moon.

You can still love the moon, just love it for what it is. It's just so ingrained in us that the moon is doing a lot more than it actually is. I know. Yeah. And it just all stems from ancient peoples.

They were observant and intelligent, but they just lacked the tools to test properly. So lunar effects were reasonable hypothesis. What's less reasonable is maintaining these beliefs in the age of large scale data analysis. But considering it's been doing the quiet work of stabilizing Earth for billions of years,

it's still amazing to gaze at the moon and appreciate its beauty.

Absolutely. I love it. I literally had my telescope out the other night. It's a fascinating object. Just thinking about the photons that bounced off the moon's surface and traveled all the

way to your eyes is incredible. The tides that creates across our oceans, the way it's stabilized Earth long enough for life to exist. Man, it's been lighting up nights for our entire history, ancient cultures tracked it, they navigated by it and scheduled their lives around it, astronauts walked on it.

All of that is real and all of that is enough. You don't need to add magical properties to make it special, because the moon does extraordinary things just not to your personality. So the next time someone says, "Must be a full moon when something weird happens." You can smile, you can nod, and remember, it's not the moon.

The moon is just showing up on time every time.

“The chaos part is on us, which honestly is way more interesting than blaming a rock in space.”

So the moon, it'll still be up there tonight, silent, predictable, and completely innocent unlike many of us. Thanks, Jess. I'm over the moon after this episode. I really appreciate that.

Thank you so much. And thank you all for listening. Topic suggestions for future episodes of Skeptical Sunday, directly to me, [email protected]. Advertisers, deals, discounts, ways to support the show, all at Jordanharbinger.com/deals. I'm @jordinharbinger on Twitter and Instagram.

You can also connect with me on LinkedIn. You can find Jessica on her sub-stacks between the lines and where Shadows linger, link to those in the show notes as well. This show is created in association with podcast one. My team is Jen Harbinger, Jason Sanderson, Tata Sadlask, Robert Fogati, Ian Beard, and Gabriel

Mizrahi. Our advice in opinions are our own, and yeah, it might be a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. Of course, we try to get everything as right as we can in these episodes, not everything is gospel though, even if it is fact checked. So consult a qualified professional before applying anything you hear on the show, especially

if it's about your health and well-being. Be careful. Don't charge those crystals in moonlight if they say not to.

“Remember, we rise by lifting others, share the show with those you love.”

And if you've found the episode useful, please share it with somebody else who could use a good dose of the skepticism and knowledge we dulled out today. In the meantime, I hope you apply what you hear in the show so you can live what you learn, and we'll see you next time. You probably don't picture drug cartel operations running through rural America, but that's

exactly why they're so hard to stop. Mariana Van Zeller breaks down how these networks hide in plain sight using everyday systems and small town blind spots to stay one step ahead. I've been covering the cartel for many years now, and I sort of wanted to do a story about cartel presence in you last, and once we started researching it, I realized that actually

the story to you about all the things that we don't know about cartel presence in you have including the fact that they're in small town America.

So one of our first shoots for that episode was in Georgia, and we started with a murder

investigation of this woman who is tortured and be cut off her fingers and an eventually killed her, and she was killed by the cartel, and it was in the middle of nowhere in Georgia. And then we follow the investigation, and she realized that they're everywhere, and particularly like to operate in small town America, less law enforcement, easier to hide the drugs and have their distribution at works.

You know, it's so interesting about this story is that in order to get access to the cartel in the U.S., we actually had to go down to Mexico, and gain permission, and have them

the U.S. is the end goals where they were sending their drugs.

“And so eventually he said, "Okay, we've got you, and it was all set up, and we were supposed”

to meet them in Minnesota."

We get there, and then we waited and waited for days, and I never showed up.

I want people to see many of these traffickers, and again, do we do not condone what they do? It's difficult to even empathize, but the majority of the people that I talk to are people just like you and me that don't have the opportunities or the luck that we have.

I try to always do my job as a journalist, which is the whole people accountable.

“If you want to hear how cartels hide and plain sight, check out episode 1302 of the Jordan”

Harbinger Show. If you like the show, there's another podcast you should check out. If you want to stay informed about what's happening around the world without drowning

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The show's hosted by Mike Baker, a veteran of the CIA with decades of firsthand experience, so you're getting smart analysis from somebody who's been inside the system. You get straightforward context to help you understand what's happening and why it matters. Follow the President's Daily Brief wherever you get your podcasts and stay ahead of the curve.

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Look for the bright yellow light bulb and start listening. You can thank me later.