As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is now saying the U.
D-Day on Iran, and it will be crushing Bessant's past filled with failure after failure
“is surfacing. You know, not a lot of people talk about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's past,”
and even though we see him now as this bumbling fool who lies day in and day out, he kind of got a pass and people assume that this guy knew what he was doing, but he didn't. And all of the funds that he ran in the past, it seems, they failed. One by one, mean, you're talking about like a 90% reduction in the value of one of his funds that really should have been a layup for him. So he couldn't run his own $5 billion fund. There were so many with
draws and redemptions that it was basically reduced to $500 million, and this is the guy who is the
Treasury Secretary. Now he published an op-ed in the Financial Times last night on Sunday night,
“and it was one of the most bizarre reads ever, and this is how he announced economic D-Day,”
doomsday. We're going to crush her on with this. And as you read it, it had some incoherent references to blaze Pascal, the French mathematician, physicist, and philosopher from the 17th century, and he was talking about the Pascal wager, and it really made like zero, since what he was writing, and he may be nervous, he may be just all over the place, but it was really quite a bizarre thing to read. I want to share that with you, and then I want to talk about his past. I'll show
you an interview, for example, that he gave in 2023, where he was like, "Let me tell you what I would do right now. I would so much rather take the economies of Japan and India over China." He goes "I was at a dinner party recently," and I said, "You can take China. I'm not constructive on the growth of China, and I will take the Japan and India economies." Well, that's interesting, because right now in 2026, you try to bail out the yen by swapping euros to manipulate the market
and that failed. You just did a bond by back scheme, and that failed as well, and now we see you are begging China that China needs to go along with your economic day against Iran, because China is allied with Iran, and China's foreign minister Wang Yi, by the way, who no doubt studied the types of stuff that Treasury Secretary Basin did and said in the past, Wang Yi and the foreign ministry spokesperson over in China said, "Yeah, no. We're not going to go along with what you're saying,
Basin. We are allied with Iran, and we stand behind our allies." So let's do this together. Let's take this peace by peace. This is a comprehensive video, but knowledge is power, and we need to learn about Basin's failure of a past. But first, let me share with you this up-ed that he published in the financial times. So you can see his behavior in the past 24 hours, then we'll go back to his behavior over the past 24 years, and I'll point out that this guy's a loser. This guy's a failure,
and like so many in maga, his maga arc is being a failure, which he calls being a contrarian.
So here's what he posted last night. President Trump has dismantled Iran's military capabilities
destroyed nearly 100% of its military factors, factories, and buried its nuclear program,
“pause there. Remember, was it back in April or early May or so that Basin said, "Let me tell you”
what's going to happen with Iran?" Their pipes are getting so filled up with crude. They're going to burst, and Iran is going to literally implode if we just do nothing. Yeah, he and Donald Trump lied about that. Then Basin says in his message last night, "We're now entering the endgame." At dawn begins an economic day, the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary. The Islamic Republic has subsisted by dressing extortion as security guarantees.
It has drawn strength from a calculus that regards Iranian retaliation as certain,
American enforcement as negotiable, under President Trump that era is over, a...
fear the danger of defying Tehran ought not to discount the cost of testing Washington pause.
“What do you mean the cost of testing Washington? Donald Trump and Netanyahu engaged in a”
catastrophic and unlawful war against Iran. You threw 30,000 munitions at Iran, like in a 48 period, which made the shocking all campaign against Iraq look small. And Iran was able to repel the Trump Netanyahu invasion, inflict pain on its Arab nation neighbors, and then Donald Trump and you would claim fake deals with Iran and the IITOLA. And then you would say we did a deal. We didn't do a deal. We did a deal. We don't do a deal. And so, and by the way, if you were able just
to crush him with this endgame economic sanctions, then why wouldn't you have just done that at the first place? So part of the plan was engaging in an unlawful war, slaughtering little girls
“and menab and lamared engaging in all of these war crimes, running out of our munitions, destroying”
the lives of our service members, treating our service members at our military bases abroad and on aircraft carriers like Crap. That was all part of the endgame plan there, Besson. Besson goes on to say the president has created the conditions to leverage every agency, every authority and action.
Many assumed we would never summon. Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains
the tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone. Okay. Well, the main economic lifeline is China and the alliance is Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Iran is also allied with a lot of the bricks block nations. You had foreign minister Iraq, she greeted recently as a hero at the last bricks block summit while Donald Trump was attacking NATO when attacking the G7. And so let's talk about that. Are you going to be attacking China? You've already said no, you're not going to do that.
What about Russia? Donald Trump's buddy Putin? No, you're not going to do that. So these are just
words empty words. Besson published that and more in the financial times. Scott Besson and
economic D-Day is coming for Iran. Countries that calculated appeasement of the regime to be a safer choice should reconsider. This is where he talks about blaze Pascal, the 17th century French philosopher. He goes in the 17th century French philosopher blaze Pascal gave enduring expression to the dilemma beneath this temptation. He understood that uncertainty does not absolve men or nations of divine judgment. In fact, it demands a more exacting appraisal of risk and imposes
a higher price of era. Pascal's a penimus wager now applies to Iran's lifelines. Nations that encoding reprieve from Tehran continue to replenish the very regime from which they seek protection. And now exceed the limits of America's tolerance. Those who sever Iran's remaining financial and commercial connectivity will reinvigorate their own. They will deepen their access to global capital, reinforce confidence in their markets and attain the standing they seek in the world to
economy. Why? They're going to say that United States has our back. The United States just declared a trade war against Canada, which was its closest allies before, which you and Lutnik and Jamison Greer and Donald Trump are involved in that no American wants. You impose 50% tariffs against Canada and Canada struck back and said, "Okay, we'll go dollar to dollar for you."
“So I think the world's looking at stuff like that and go, "Nam, I don't think we really want”
the United States blessing at this point." And then, best in goes the alternative for those who tether themselves to Tehran is the foreclosure of any path to lasting prosperity. Elicit finance will flourish as it so often does where confidence has collapse and any nation that serves as a financial artery of a withering regime should expect to share in its isolation. To become a sanctuary for Tehran is to become in the eyes of the United States a global, perio, beset, weighing
e and jeezing, paying our shaking in their boots right now. You're going to isolate China right
Now, China's never been stronger.
impose significant sanctions against Russia. Donald Trump withdrew those. Nobody is afraid of you.
“When you try to decouple from China in 2025, they just cut off the rare earths and immediately”
Donald Trump came running and crying uncle to Xi Jinping and then Trump brags that now China's
agreed to buy 13 million metric tons of soybeans. Yeah, they were buying 26 million metric tons
under former president Biden and they ain't even buying the 13 million metric tons now. Go and ask our soybean farmers and then you have besencing any remaining tie to Tehran will hasten the economic ostracism of countries and entities whether that tie be purposely constructed or willfully ignored. So that's the message from Biden. By the way, Pascal's wager, what did you even understand a word of what he's saying? I understand Pascal's wager from European history, the claim that given
the stakes, it is more rational to bet on God's existence than to bet against it, a pragmatic and
prodential argument that basically says what's the downside of having infinite faith when you could
“achieve infinite eternal salvation thus doesn't it make sense to bet on God versus the contrary?”
But what does that have to do with anything that we're even talking about? What is the Pascal's wager even mean in this context? And of all of the things that you could be talking about during this doomsday message that you're delivering Pascal's freaking wager, you're just showing that you're a damn weirdo dude like what the hell are you even talking about? And he is a weirdo and he is a failure. So now let's peel back the layers of his failed past. And I think Gordon Johnson did a
good job describing it as such. Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the treasury. Consider the record. In 2000 Scott Bessent left the Soros fund
to run a $1 billion fund of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried
“again with key square. His fund co-founded with a Soros alum Michael Germino, one of like the top”
traders out there. And seeded with $2 billion of Soros money, which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 182 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018 Soros, the man who stayed to him took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal,
which brings us to the question. Is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, treasury yields and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind, the market tragically failed to appreciate in the past or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him and sell, showing he was a complete and utter failure. He believes he's smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam twice. And we see his manipulation right now, right where he did the euro
swap for yen without even letting the European Central bankers know. It manipulated the market and led the yen to rise for a brief period of time relative to the dollar. And now the yen is crashing again and the Japanese are going to have to sell. U.S. Treasury runs to try to prop up and bail out its failing yen. You had the bond buy back scheme by Treasury Secretary Beessent, where he tried to buy long-term bonds, take them off the market, sell a lot more short-term bonds,
which is basically a Ponzi scheme and kick the problem down the road, but try to decrease the longer treasury yields by taking older bonds that haven't matured off the market and selling shorter-term bonds to make the money in order to buy those longer bonds. For about a 24-hour period, it resulted in the Treasury yields decreasing, but then they rose with the vengeance and they rose
Even higher than they were before.
his op-ed declaring economic doomsday in the financial times. Interesting choice because 24 hours before
“the financial times ran the following headline, bossing the bond market around never works,”
despite Scott Beessent's efforts, investors worry something is up. Beessent's bond market battle is starting to look like his bosses were in Iran. A tangled set of objectives underestimating your opponent and an implausible path to victory. And like the conflict in the Middle East, we are all going to suffer. And a point I want to make about Beessent when you look at his past of his failure, it is prelude as well. This was not some macroeconomic genius. It is a guy with
an inflated ego and inflated sense of his self who failed consistently. And so how do you get pushed into the maga orbit? Well, when he had this reduced fund from the 5.1 billion, it was originally
at key square to 500 million. He was the contrarian. He would always kind of bet against the market.
And so leading up to the election, he would bet against the market and the bad market that Donald Trump left former president Biden. At the end of the Biden administration, things were getting better inflation was going down. But there was a year or two, where Beessent started to have some returns as betting against the market, as shorting the market, when you had all of this kind of
“rightling oligarch money, really funneling to, you know, I think, you know, really go after Biden.”
And we saw a lot of that there. So Beessent kind of inert himself or became closer to Donald Trump during that period of time. I think this also sums it up interestingly as well of somebody who's had a relationship as well with Beessent or New Beessent. Okay, fine, let's do this. I knew Beessent when he worked in the London office at Soros and heard pitches for each one of his subsequent ventures listed below and for his last venture, a fund of fund would Jeff Terent, not included
below. In short summary, he claimed the valor for the frame for the famed British pound cross-trained. And it's a myth. He didn't actually do any of it. Talks about Osoro's manages own principle
position and risk always. There were other investing teams that always that also traded currency
crosses, including the one Beessent was a part of in London. But to be clear, it was a semi-autonomous group with its own capital and risk budgets allocated by Soros internally. They had nothing to do with the massive bet by George against the Bank of England's intervention. Like many who stayed in the business, Beessent's team at Soros broke off to do their own fund with a capital allocation. They blooded to death being short oil and long US equity volatility in 2003, 2004,
which introduces my point about Beessent, which has always held up through the years. Beessent
is a contrarian. Being a contrarian caused his group to bleed out in early 2000s, his first fund to
fail in the mid 2000s, his second fund to fail in mid to late 2010s. At one point, he took the other side of the end-carry trade in 2017 and so on. The problem with the contrarian dogma is, "I'm not wrong, I'm just early, which leads to hubris. Market still wrong have to stay with it until the lights dim and losses compound to the point where the business is no longer viable." Beessent did that death spiral three times before becoming a marketing guy at a fund of fund,
and that's where you know, he didn't have success, but he was just a marketing guy at a fund of fund at the end. That was the end of his mega, that was part of his mega arc, a marketing guy, a fund to fund. Like Trump slaps his name on a building and says, "Ah, that's my building." That's basically what Beessent was doing in an oversimplified version. For a career trader, that's like going from starting for the New York Yankees to being the Kenny Powers TV series
character, trying to make it happen on a low-run, minorly team in Murdoch Beach. It's glib to criticize his experience. That's not the real issue now. The real issue is Beessent is a serial contrarian, and that is the worst bad thing if you were a financial speculator in the markets.
“And so I think that's interesting insight into Beessent. And then we have this video of Beessent”
from 2023, where Beessent says, "I would so much rather have the Japan and India economy than
China," and he said that he believed the China economy would suffer, and that...
would be rising." Well, interestingly, the Trump regime did attack India, did attack China,
“and did attack Japan. They attacked all of them. So here's what he said back then, play this clip.”
The early 22 people still were constructive on China, and I had had a long-term secular down view based on the economics gravity, because somehow everyone thought what China is so big,
they have this close capital account. If it were any other country, it already would have
exploded, but the view the gravity would win. And then I also had the view that when Party
“Chairman Jake came in, he's a different kind of cat. And this very unusual capitalist”
communist blend that had taken China out of the dark ages, and into the modern world was over. So now we've seen the going to more of command and control economy, but so at this dinner, I told everyone at the table, I said, "You can have China. I will take India and Japan. Let's reconvene in five years." Then I found this line notable from his interview at the
“Money Maze podcast from 2023 that I just showed you. He said, "When you're on war fit at”
footing, what do you need most?" You need energy, you need food, and here's, let me just play the clip for you, because he seems to be describing the desperation, and you unload some of your bonds. He seems to be describing the desperation that the United States is in right now, here, play this clip. So, you know, if you were going to go on war footing, you would need energy, you'd need food, and then you would probably sell your treasures. Well, there you have it, everybody.
I wanted to give you that background and broader perspective on treasury secretary-bessent, so you can understand a little bit more about him. I'd love to know, you know, your thoughts, but yeah, when he was on his own, he did not have successful funds. And now, he's the treasury secretary.
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