Khamenei Is Dead. But Iran’s Women Already Broke the Regime.

This is the music for your oron. It's the third day of War with Iran and we remain an uncharted territory, Ayatola Ali.

“The company Ayatola Ali is dead after US attacks, and as an uncharted signalling, this is just the beginning.”

Old Jake Tapper, quote, "The big one is coming soon and suggested that this could last about a month." The fan secretary of P.D. Heggseth says, "It's not a rock, and promises no US boots on the ground and no regime change, but three US-F-15s have already been reportedly shot down over quake." And then leadership casualties are mounting inside Iran. And that is why we have our wonderful guest on today, Iranian American journalist, Tuzan, Count Horval, I've known for most of my career, and she has sources on the ground.

“She's reported extensively on the region from Dubai, for BBC, and other outlets, and she is talking to people inside Iran.”

And here at home, and she'll be able to give us an idea of where we are, what it all means, and really we're going to focus on the women, because they may be the ones that could really bring about change. And we're going to get take questions from you at the end. So everyone, stick with us, and then submit your questions, and we'll take a few of them at the end. So thanks so much for joining Suzan.

Thank you so much for having me. I've been thinking about this, right, that my entire career, the career that you and I basically started around the same time.

“I've been building up to this covering the build-up to this moment, and it does feel a bit surreal to be frank, and it feels the same way to people on the inside.”

So I have been speaking to people on the inside. You know, there has been disagreement among my sources on the ground about how they would have liked this to have been done. I mean, some are elated, celebrating literally had more parties, and others are terrified that this is going to escalate into, you know, living in a sort of hell on earth as one of them said. But again, we kind of need to go back to how we got here. In 2009, there was a large, there was a green revolution, is what they ended up calling it.

And this was in the aftermath of an election that the people disputed. It was Ahmadinejad winning supposedly again, and people poured into the streets.

And this was probably the first time where we thought, okay, this is it, there could be real change here, and then there was a brutal crackdown.

And years later, that was 2009, so then in 2013, there was a big diplomatic breakthrough between Obama and the Islamic Republic, and we eventually saw the Iranian nuclear deal, which I covered this extensively. I was the State Department reporter then, so I was traveling with the Secretary of State. And so we thought that there would be reform after that. There was hope that there would be reform. Now, people who were not fans of the nuclear deal were not fans because it's specifically didn't address the ballistic missile program.

The ballistic missiles that we are now seeing being bombarded around the region, including on Dubai, where until a couple of months ago, I was living, which was like this sort of, first of all, it's 90% expats. I was just there a month and a half ago, and one of my best friends loves their Sally Lockwood, and everyone who listens to the channel and goes to the state of the world knows this. It's incredible, but I've always thought to myself, it was a ruse, this whole idea that the Gulf states were actually safe.

Well, of course, because you're right across from Iran, exactly. I used to go and I would sit on the beach, and I have to say, my dad's Iranian from my dad was born in Iran. He came to the US before the revolution. He didn't come because of politics, it came because of business. But obviously, it didn't end up going back. But I, since I became a journalist and since I specifically was covering the Iran story, and I was sitting in front of Iranian presidents, I and grilling them on questions like, why are using dual nationals as negotiating chips and imprisoning them and slapping false charges of espionage on them, and why are you killing women in the streets because they don't want to cover their hair and want to be free like the rest of the world.

But you know, I would sit on the beach and I would be like, well, Iran is literally right across this body of water and I can't go and so it was like this exile. And so anyway, I had just moved to Dubai when the woman life freedom movement kicked off, which was when a young woman 22 years old named Masajina Amini was detained because she had pieces of her hair showing under her hijab and she was detained by the morality police and she died in custody.

“And that kicked off a huge wave of protests. And that literally was the kind of domino effect moment because the women had been quietly pulling at the thread of the literal fabric of the regime, which is the hijab.”

And the hijab is how they what they used to kind of exercise power and how to sort of almost like it was a litmus test of how they how the sort of power was working on their people. So like when I was there in 2007 the last time I was in Iran was in 2007. I mean, I was in college. So we were rebellious and we were going out and doing all the things we weren't supposed to do and doing everything that was illegal, which is like, you know, going out in the street with boys that you're not related to.

And you know, wearing short tunics that are colorful and wearing like tiny pieces of fabric to sort of pretend like you're wearing hijab and following the law, but like we were pushing the limits as much as we could.

And so they would let you get away with that, but then they would suddenly start arresting people. And so it's like this, it's been this push pull. But once woman life freedom happened.

They lost control because women no longer had fear. They were just going into the streets and not wearing hijab. And so they never formally lifted the compulsory hijab law, but they lost and it was very clear that they lost. So as the economic situation just continued to disintegrate in the sort of like wealth gap continued to show.

“I think like social media was a huge gain changer. They couldn't control the narrative anymore, you know, before. So like everything like everything's illegal there. Like Western music's illegal Western movies are illegal.”

Like everything Western's illegal, except all of the regime officials themselves have satellite dishes that are illegal. They watch American movies. You know, they drink whiskey.

I mean, like one time I was texting with one of my regime sources and I reminded him of something that he'd said and he said, I didn't say that. And then I like screenshot it and sent it back to them. He said, oh, I must have been drunk and he's like sitting in terror. So like the whole place is just a hypocrisy. And it's now just, you know, now is just literally been blown up. Interesting. And so now that come on he has been killed. What if anything changes immediately for these women?

“Well, I mean, so it's interesting because everybody's talking about what comes next, right? And we really don't know what comes next. I mean, we know what comes next.”

Technically, in terms of their constitution, but you know, they're taking everybody out that they can presumably so that the constitution falls apart. The legal framework falls apart. There's nobody to fill in these roles. I mean, Trump has said it's regime change. I know hexa says saying it's not. All right. So I guess like, I mean, I think we go with the president. He's the highest ranking. So basically, we need to look at, well, first of all, who is an evian prison? And a lot of who is an evian prison is women leaders, particularly a woman called Nargis Mohamedi. She is a Nobel laureate and like a couple of weeks ago, she was suddenly arrested and sentenced to seven years in prison.

So obviously, they're afraid of her. And so that's people on the inside. And then, you know, there's questions as to whether or not people on the outside would come in. And, you know, the crown prince. Presupat Levy, his name has been shouted on the streets and also brought up outside of the country. Now, there is a big concern. Like basically the last thing around needs is they've already had a group of massagenists who are in cloaks and turbines, the last thing they need is a group of massagenists coming in who are in western suits.

And so like this is a real concern around women that I've been talking to, particularly because they feel like, you know what, we laid the groundwork for this interesting. And do they believe this is a moment for systematic change or they're just hopeful or more do they fear the most.

Well, they fear that there's that basically there won't be real change. It'll be another group of people who are dictators and authoritarian. That's the biggest fear right now.

And they are like the the Islamic Republic, the way we've noted is no longer exists, just not going to.

“And so like what comes next is the big question mark, but what comes next. And I think that's why there's been a fear among western governments, particularly the US, particularly Congress, senators that I've spoken to for example.”

They worry that this is going to turn into a rock situation because before Iraq, they were also speaking to the Iraq invasion rather. They were American officials were speaking to Iraqis who were like, oh, everything is going to be fine. You know, we have our position. We have, you know, Chalabi, this that and the other, I'm not going to get into the whole Iraq thing. But it turned, you know, we saw what happened with Iraq. So it seemed like they had all their ducks in a row and there was a plan, but it didn't work out that way. And that's the biggest fear.

So nothing has changed immediately. Like women aren't taking their hijab off on the street. They're not.

No, they've already taken it off. They've already taken it off. I would, yeah, they took it off like two or three years ago. I mean, like, I think sort of socially.

The change that came to it to Iran socially happened with women like freedom and it's really, because so like these propaganda, so the February 11th is the Islamic revolutions like anniversary. And so they always invite Western media to come and cover it. Like that's the only time you can ever really get a visa usually to Iran because they want to sort of like flex their muscles and say, "Look, everybody loves us. Is the Islamic Republic is alive and well." And so this year, you know, CNN, BBC, NBC, they all went and CNN and BBC got a lot of slack by Iranians inside and outside because they just, you know, they were calling the kind of revolutionary parades.

Parades and whatnot, a family festival and send this very streets that people had to massacre tens of thousands of people had to massacre this span of 48 hours. And so, you know, but what was interesting was that you could see people not wearing hijab women. You could see women not wearing hijab. That isn't an Islamic Republic celebration. And so like that was kind of their way of saying, "Look, like we're modernizing. So we're still the Islamic Republic, but we're modernizing." Hmm.

“What is the likelihood that ordinary Iranians have any say in who comes in next?”

Well, I mean, we hope all the likelihood because like all of this was for the sake of democracy, right? I mean, the Iranian people want a democracy. They've been calling for a democracy since 2009, the whole reason why a lot of people died in 2009 in the Green Revolution. Similar to the woman-life freedom movement, there was one woman who became the kind of face of the Green Revolution and that was a woman called Nedda.

So like in 2009 it was Nedda in 2022, it was Massa. It's just always a woman.

Like there's always the woman kind of martyr who is the freedom fighter against the Islamic Republic. I mean, I'm just thinking about men as well, where leadership changed, but the power structure remained, and if that's a possibility for Iran. So you know, I saw Jonathan Carl tweeted something that I'm trying to get more of an explanation from the White House out of. He said that Trump called him and said that they had people identified that we're going to take over once they killed Hamanay, but now they've been killed too.

And so I kind of thought does that mean that you were intending to make it a Venezuela, like to pull a Venezuela because you can't really call Venezuela regime change. The top guy is out, but the rest of the people are still there.

“That's why I'm wondering if it's going to be the same thing exactly.”

And I think so it's an interesting question because, so like diaspora people outside of the country will say no absolutely not there's no room like everybody's got to go. There's no room for reform. No IRGC, no this, no that, but in reality, I mean IRGC by siege, like this is hundreds of thousands of people, and so there needs to be an off ramp, like where do they go, what happens to them. So it's not as as not as cut and dry as we would like it to be. Yeah, and does war suppress, you know, grassroots movements, the kinds that have been were so central in those 2023 protests, I mean, how can they really lead reform moments movements when they're dealing with strikes all day long.

But then again, in 1979, they didn't have internet, you know, they weren't what's happening each other, and students went stormed buildings, and you know, like that's how the 1979 revolution happened, and then they brought in the ayatola from Paris, and that was like how the sort of coup took place, that's how the show was supposed. But obviously, the show and all of his people fled, you know, similar to what happened what we saw in Syria, I said flat, obviously now there isn't a worry about what happens with carbonated because he's dead, but everybody else, so like what happens everybody else, and so basically this contact on the ground is saying that you just have to leave it to the people that people, the people will go and they'll take care of them, and I'm, you know, I'm thinking, well, they don't have weapons, so are they, special forces going to get weapons to them.

Who are they getting them to? There isn't like a concentrated leader, and so it's interesting because like I'm on the outside sitting here, like I guess trying to kind of like game this out, but on the inside, they're not thinking like that, they're they're so angry, they're so amped, they're so angry, they just want to take them out with their bare hands, and it will get bloody, like it's, they want revenge, frankly. Like they watch their sons and daughters be massacred in the streets, and then in order to go and get the bodies of their sons and daughters who just been massacred in the streets with these particular bullets that they could get multiple bodies at once.

“They then had to go and pay to receive the bodies of their loved ones to pay for the price of the bullet.”

So that's the level of, like that's the level of rage that the people have.

Yeah. Do you think that if there are more casualties, US, casualties, the US will stay in Iran, they will continue to strike for longer? I mean, I have to say as an American, I'm very concerned at some of the rhetoric that I'm hearing because it feels like President Trump is preparing us for more casualties.

“But he's listened as an Iranian, I know how horrible it is there, and how grateful the people are for liberation, like that's what I've been told.”

In 2005, actually, I was in Tehran, and it was my first trip, so I actually know I went when I was a child too, but I don't really remember it.

But in 2005, I was in Tehran, and the traffic was really bad. And to the point where you could literally just have a chat with the guy in the car next to you. And so my uncle just struck up conversation with the guy in the car next to us and proudly said, "Oh, look, this is my niece. She's coming from America." And he turned around and he looked at me dead in the eye and said, "Infarsi, he said, "Go back and tell President Bush. You liberated Carabella. Please come and liberate us. Carabella is obviously in Iraq.

This is 2005. We were two years into the Iraq War." And so people have been dreaming of this moment.

And I think there's no, you know, there isn't this naivety that they didn't know that there was going to be sacrifice and civilian losses, like a course.

“And that's how desperate they are, though. I mean, like that's what I think we need to think about.”

But I mean, yeah, I as an American, I worry about American casualties. Because I worry about, like, what the end game is, like, I just hope they have a plan. And I don't see one yet, but that's why we're trying to get more information out of the way. I know it's crazy to not have President Trump speaking because after the attack in Colombia, all the, you know, senior officials, they were out on all the Sunday shows they were talking to press. President Trump's been doing a few phone calls, like we've seen telling John Carl, like you talked about earlier that the candidates that they had that were lined up to succeed.

Uh, committee, they're dead. Um, so, you know, and the press conference at the Pentagon today, yeah, well, there's no real, there's no real press court, the Pentagon anymore. None of these questions were really, really questions and even the ones that were remotely real questions, Secretary Hagset, clock back at.

Yeah, interesting. Yeah, no, I know what they've done in the Pentagon press course horrible. They basically kicked out anyone who wouldn't sign a contract to review all sourcing with the, um, with the Pentagon.

“I mean, like, how are we supposed to report on an actual war that's happening?”

And there's valid questions like, you know, so I was, I was raised to, you know, in my journalism career to ask questions that cover all sides of a story and leave my own personal opinion and, you know, lived experience bias out. So there is this report that a girl's school in Iran was hit immediately after the strikes. And we don't know. So then immediately after the after, like reports of that came out, the Iranian foreign minister was on NBC interviewing with Peter Alexander. And he was like, a girl's school's been hit, a girl's school's been hit. And I think a lot of reporting in the Middle East like has to be around instinct. There's a lot of kind of smoke and mirrors and propaganda like that is the conspiracy theories.

“Like it's a big part of the sort of culture of the region, frankly, no matter what part of the region you go to.”

So, I mean, immediately, I look kind of like red flags went up. And so I tweeted, I said, why has there not been a press conference so that we can ask what happened at this girl's school.

Period. That's it. I didn't say who was who I thought might be behind it, who was saying who was like nothing. It was just like the motion. Why are in car. Sound like they made a mistake. There's no reason to target a school. But who was mistake was it? Like the question is it was clearly a mistake. Who was mistake was it? We don't know. Was it the Iranians misfiring? Was it the Israelis was the Americans? Like we don't we don't know. I mean, you know, you would think that the likelihood that it would be the Iranians misfiring is like maybe higher because the Americans and the Israelis generally have better precision.

But think, but like maybe not what were they targeting, we don't know. And like these are questions we should be able to ask. Like, this is America. This is a land of free press. This is, let's sense that we are the beacon of democracy. Yeah, I just, I'm, I'm just in shock that I'm just in shock about the response that Iran, like how this has become a multi-country. Hezbollah's bombing outside of Burfay Route Iran was ready to attack and retaliate. This is not some sort of like easy clean surgical war that they've entered into it. This is not like what happened in Columbia.

“I wonder if they got a little hot. Yeah, I think they got a little too high on themselves and thought that they after taking out Maduro and thought this would be the same.”

But they underestimated the fact that Iran is a country with 70 million people strategically positioned in the Gulf and with a lot of allies across the region.

I mean, so when the nuclear deal was reached in 2015, I was talking to an administration official who said to me, don't you think this will lead to reforms? Don't you think like some good will come out of it? Some change will come out of it. And there were some ironic accidental breakthroughs and one of those was that so the regime became completely exposed after that. And the reason for that is all of the sanctions relief that came out of the deal didn't go to the people it went to strengthening the proxies in the region.

So it went to strengthening his Bala in Lebanon where I used to be based the Houthis, you know, the Cateba's Bala in Iraq. I mean, like they have they have proxies all over the region all over the region precisely preparing for this day expecting this day to come. And so, I mean, I would have thought like, yes, maybe they did kind of like get high on themselves after Venezuela, but I would have thought that they would have known that. And and like part of the one of the reasons why the Arab countries were trying to stop most of them were trying to stop Trump for doing this was because they expected that Iran was going to respond this way.

We're going to basically like if we're going to go down, we're going to take everybody down with us and the fact that they targeted Dubai, which is 90% expats, you target Dubai, you're sending a signal that you're targeting that you're hitting the entire world. So you're at war with the world, if you're at war with Dubai, that's what that means. And so, you know, they did say that they're not like they're not going to go down with the fight. We would have known that I'm not going to go down with the fight and and that's it, like that's what's happening, which to me says they say this is going to be a month.

Okay, well, I want to open this up to some questions the last five minutes that we've got on the live. Anybody drop in your questions right now while we have Suzanne and we have a comment from Tom crown, we're going to put him up on the screen. Oh, wait a second until we throw him up. Thanks for participating in the conversation, Tom. He says, I think the average Iranian see this as an attack on their country by USA, what should have happened is that this country should have seen the protesters.

“I'm not sure what he meant by that, but we didn't instead, we attacked the country. I think he means that this country should have helped the protesters. What do you think or see that is maybe what he said.”

Yeah, I mean, I think yes, so the country should have, excuse me, the US should have supported the protesters, what does supporting the protesters look like.

Getting them starling. Sorry, I've got you right there. It's okay. It looks like you know keeping them online, but at the same time again, like you can't bring a knife to a gunfight. Bear. Okay, guys, we only have a little bit more time, so they're on a good question. We've only got a few more minutes left from Suzanne. I actually wanted to, no, go ahead. No, what are you going to say?

So I wanted to, I've been thinking about his question a little bit more, because what's interesting is in the lead-up, there was kind of anger that, oh, they're going to attack.

“There were some people, not like most people weren't like this, but there were some people who were saying, oh, they're going to attack us and we don't want war and like, why is the US always like, you know, causing drama?”

And then when a company was killed, one of these people who didn't want war, so to speak, sent a video of crying tears of joy. That's just to show that there's such a range of mixed feelings. I mean, I'm getting attacked by all sides, so, you know, but I'm also used to it, but I think it's like, this is it cut and dry, and there's a lot of mixed feelings. And there's fear and there's hope and there's guilt, particularly like as if somebody who's a member of the diaspora, I guess, like there's guilt that I'm here safe talking about this stuff, but I have family who isn't.

Right, I'm sure that's a lot to think about. Ian Hamilton has a comment, is Saudi really going to hit back? I feel if they do other Arab countries, well, their oil feeds their oil, field just got hit this morning is MBS out for revenge against them. What do you think? So this is an interesting point.

“My Saudi sources are being a bit, they're playing cat and mouse and not really giving much until, which I think says a lot.”

And then I think that MBS was a supporter of the strikes I have been told. And therefore, I would not be surprised. And I think particularly, because of how hard Dubai has been hit, I don't see how the Emirates sit it out either if they continue. It seems that today things have been lighter, but if it continues, I don't see how the Emirates sit it out, but I'm not surprised. The Iranians have hit Saudi before.

This is happened before, but then the China, there was a China broker detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

But there had been reports that MBS had been kind of advising Trump to go for it because the regime had never been weaker and that if there was ever a moment, it was now.

Interesting. All right, Suzanne, thank you so much for your time. We've just hit the 30 minute mark. What a great live. What an interesting angle about the women. You've got it all covered and would love to have you back on. If President Trump is right, and this will only be a month, that's still a very long time.

And you know, he was the president who promised no more foreign wars. So, yep. Yep. All right, thank you for having me on hopefully will return with good news. Yeah, and for everyone who is tuned in, please subscribe to Suzanne County Poor on Substack.

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“And of course, if you're just listening to this on your phone or, you know,”

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That's what we need to keep going. We are trying to keep that halo effect going.

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But here we are, and no one is telling us what to do or say.

And so we're giving you the straight news. Thanks so much. Like follow share, subscribe. Thank you. Bye.

Thanks. [Music]

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