The Iran War Is Already Hitting the Economy — Why the Worst Is Still Coming

Welcome back to the Tara Palmeri Show in the Red Letter. We have Robert Wolf back on the show with us crazy times, and he is here to break it all down for us, explain this economic situation. He's going to talk policy Wall Street, I'm going to talk politics, Washington, Scoop, whatever everyone's talking about.

“And also, how does this war in Iran and the uncertainty around it impact you, your daily life, your pocketbook, the rest of the world?”

As you all know, Robert's been on the show before, he is a former chairman and CEO of UBS Bank. He was also an economic advisor to Obama and a member of his economic recovery advisory board, and he's advised a number of politicians and even President Trump at one point, right?

So you have not President Trump, but he could use me.

“You could have with for a few sweet nothings and years, but he has advised Mayor Mondani, so Robert is the go-to guy for politicians, we're like, we're doing right now, what's going on in the world.”

So breaking news, holy ceasefire, according to President Trump, just as the national gas average is $4 and 2 cents, you allegedly have a ceasefire.

Tara, great to be back, what a difference a few weeks makes. Like I came right after the unemployment number, which was one of the worst jobs reports in years, and the show we've had no new job gains, I think since May of 2025, so we were just beginning talking about the war and what it could mean and when it would end. You know, I thought a good way for us to start chatting is since, you know, he announced he's doing a national discussion tonight, and we're not really sure what he's going to say, but, you know, the way I kind of think about it, if you looked at the President's campaign, it was America first.

It was about lowering prices at the pump, lowering prices at the kitchen table, but if you really think about the past 12 months and it's been exactly 12 months, a year ago he announced liberation day.

“I think when on on Fox, I called it the red wedding of the biggest unforester and Washington in my 40 years of politics, because tariffs was executed in just about the worst possible way.”

And now 12 months later, his next biggest thing is the Iran war, and I know we're going to talk about it, but the one thing I want to say is neither of those bookends reduced pricing.

All it does is make affordability front and center, it's not a hoax and people are feeling the pain. All the things affordability and immigration. Both things, I would not say he's really gentle as well at all. If anything, I think people are feeling even worse, which explains why some of the poll numbers right now are pretty brutal for President Trump, and we're going to put them up, this is from CNN, comparing his poll numbers just in the past few months, like back from January 2026 to March. The overall approval of his handling of as presidency has gone to 35% down from doesn't say the exact number in January, but you can see the light purple.

So it can be a economy, everything's going down economic conditions in the US are poor 77% agree that could do 77% of Americans agree on anything. I don't take polls all that seriously because they change like the wind, but your guests would be interested in this. A few years back I had lunch with Steve Bannon, and one of the things he said is, the two things you have to really look at is the favorability of the president is he or is he not underwater.

Those are the two polls that, in my opinion, really kind of tell you what the pulse of the nation feels like.

And right now, you know, it's all about the economy and it doesn't feel good right now and I know we're going to talk domestic policy later on and we're going to focus a little bit about, you know, the war and Iran, but you know it's clear to me that he is just kind of off his game when it comes to this populist message that he's really run on and you could argue, you know,

“that an amazing job running on this populist, not, you know, nationalist America first message, but it's kind of doesn't feel that way today.”

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We uncover the stealth plot to create an all-powerful president or as some call it, the unitary executive, the unitary executive,

our journalist revealed the hidden scheme to eliminate checks and balances, crushed democracy, and turned government by the people into government by one man. I have to write to do whatever I want as president. Check out master plans season two, the king makers. Visit masterplanpodcast.com or search master plan in your podcast app to start listening right now. So I did get some numbers from the CNN poll. So right now, 69% disapprove of Trump's handling the economy.

“31% approved, not a great number. Back in January, 61% disapproved and 39% approved. So it's slid 8 points, you know what I mean?”

Sorry, he's approval slid 8 points down, the disapproval slid 8 points up, and in July 25, 40% approved of how he was handling the economy and in April 2025, 39%. So yeah, he's he's not doing really well, that's under water. Not not surprising. I mean, if you think about the economy, usually what's always front and center is jobs, and you and I spoke a lot about it on on the last podcast on your show a few weeks ago, we're in this, you know, low higher low fire environment and the job market for young people's brutal.

We have a discouraged workforce. We have this question on the impact of AI, you saw Oracle announced, you know, you know, terminations 30 plus thousand to go on, you know, as others has announced. And then you add the war and you add the war, you have gas prices up, you have, you know, food prices up, and and we just have this unknown environment.

“And I know we're going to talk about the stock market, but the stock market's not a gauge for the economy, you know, I think something like 80% of the stock markets owned by the top 15% wealthiest, you know, people in the world.”

I do that in the country, so this idea that, you know, although, you know, although attorney general bondy made the 50,000 number the most important day that she was testifying.

The most important number when it comes to, you know, kitchen table issues. Yeah, she disturbingly mentioned that while being asked about the Epstein files and the fact that she had not called the survivors behind her to the DOJ to testify that was her disgusting out of touch gross response. And I would love to have, you know, mine if we can just go back to where you started about tonight's speech and we talk a little about Iran and kind of update, you know, your audience about really what's going on and why is this such an incredible impact for the economy.

Well, yeah, I mean, there are a number of reasons why, by the way, I'm not holding my breath on this test fire until we hear from Iran, whether this is actually true or not, which is kind of crazy. That we have to wait on the Iatola for confirmation. It feels like President Trump is just playing with the markets, it's like a pinball machine and he time this announcement right before the market's opened.

He said, let the rest of the world deal with that by our oil, you know, you're up if you, if you can't deal, but I don't, it's just a margin.

“I mean, listen, obviously the market rallied on on his true social posts, but, you know, if you kind of look at the comments over the last, you know, few days, you know, we obliterated them, you know, the war is going to end.”

Today he talks, you know, if they don't open up the straight or moves, we're going to blast him back to the Stone Age. I don't even understand yesterday he's talking about his new ballroom and Sharpie pens and, you know, Iran only has BB guns to be people, but so we're all over the place, but the one thing I would say is, it feels to me that this president does not want to stay in this war because he sees what it's doing to the market, he sees what it's doing to oil prices.

But the idea that he's going to pass the buck to our allies, whether it's in the middle east in Europe and say, hey, you go deal with it.

When for the most part it was started by us in Israel seems crazy to me because it doesn't mean it's over just because, you know, the US decides to withdraw, because, you know, you were mentioning what is what it will Iran's come back to be to our proposal. If you want sovereignty over the straight or her moves, they're talking about, yeah, they're talking about the tolding that you and I were chatting about like what Egypt does in the Suez Canal, if you don't think that's going to impact energy prices and diesel prices and be passed on the consumer, you're not, because they're talking about a tolding of a couple million bucks a ship, that's like 20% per barrel.

“Yeah, that's insane. Just for a feel of how this is impacting the global economy, especially in Asia, right, where they really rely on Iran for their fuel.”

In Thailand, news anchors have ditched their jackets on air as the government called on the public to reduce their use of air conditioning to save energy in the Philippines. The government workers are operating on a four day work week in Vietnam officials have urged employers to allow people to work from home. They're thinking of all different ways to save energy in Japan, they're telling them to take shorter showers. This is crazy. I mean, the rest of the world is really suffering. We haven't really felt it yet, but I'm sure at some point we're going to feel it when it comes to commodities.

“I mean, like, how does this work? What does the ripple look like? Is it housing? Is it food? Is it tackling? When do we feel it? Because Trump just said, all I have to do is leave for oil prices to come down.”

Do we believe that? So a lot of time back here. First, I want to touch some of the stuff you talked about, Asia and Thailand, and actually today they announced that they're, you know, ending some of their fishery shipping, which is one of their most important trade they have. You know, just to go back, recall that 80% of all energy that goes through the strait or hummus goes to Asia, Southeast Asia, China, Japan. And so, yes, it doesn't hit us as directly, but we know energy is a global commodity. So one, the idea that they can't get their oil is brutal.

And then number two, the idea that they can't plan for the pricing of oil changes everything. I would say that the second part is also coming through the strait or hummus that you talked about are things like helium and fertilizer. You know, so the fertilizer aspect is huge for farmers. So the idea that these farmers aren't sure about their own supply chains is another reason where people in nervous about grocery prices and future supply.

And then the third thing I would say is forget just about the Asia aspect, our allies, France and the UK take the UK, for example, the UK imports about 40% of their energy.

A lot of they were getting from Russia. They stopped during the Ukraine war getting it from Russia because so where do they get it? They get it from the Middle East. Now they can't get delivery deliveries from the Middle East because that choke point the strait or hummus is not allowing it. They're seeing much higher pricing than us, much different type of inflation. So the impact on our friends in pan Europe, absolutely impactful. So the idea that the president turns around and says, go do it yourself really what he's doing is saying, hey, we need your Navy ships. We want you part of this military.

Here's a hazeus, a cost asking how long before all of this drives the United States into a recession. So listen, I don't know if you heard out my last conversation with Tara. I was, and I've changed my mind, but at that point I thought the Fed should be lowering rates because I was more nervous about the, what I was calling the job session.

I was no more nervous about jobs and a recession in the US than I was about inflation.

And at that point, I said that although a lot of people are talking about stagflation, I would give it less than a 10% possibility. If this war continues, that possibility of stagflations going to be higher and we'll talk about that.

“I don't think there's a recession around the corner, but certainly I think that growth is slow.”

The job market is slow, but the consumer still is somewhat strong.

We don't know the impact. Remember, oil prices today. Yes, it went from three dollars to four dollars for gas and it went from four dollars to five and a half dollars in diesel and that's an impact and it will be passed through. But that's not like at a hundred fifty two hundred dollars a barrel where we're talking about six dollars gas and we're talking about, you know, various types of, you know, embargo and banning. So one, it still feels like business is usual, although I would tell you the glass feels half empty, not half full.

Interesting. Okay, in Jennifer Anderson says, will this supply shock lead to a higher inflation spiral than COVID supply shocks? It's a good question.

“It is a real good question. I don't think so. I think COVID is a, it was a one in the lifetime happening, the entire world shut down.”

This is very different. This is talking about 20% of energy certainly for the US where we're energy independent and we have the ability to look at fracking differently in LNG. We're going to be able to withstand it more than the rest of the global economy, certainly within Europe. But there's no question that it will cause inflation. And one of the real reasons a cause inflation and is I mentioned diesel prices and most people, well, why we talking about diesel prices. Well, all of deliveries, all of tracking everyone uses diesel. So if you don't think that those prices of shipping and supply and logistics are going to be passed on, you're not.

My opinion between the tariff craziness. And if we have this, these energy shocks. Yes, it's going to impact, you know, our kitchen table costs. And so, you know, I think you're going to see it's passed on to consumer. I think it's going to feel inflationary.

“That's why people are talking about stagnation. I'm probably at the lower end than many economists, but it certainly feels like it's has a possibility of raring the ugliest of ugly heads.”

So how soon are we going to feel this days, weeks? I mean, I think people are feeling it, you know, I think, you know, listen, whether you like or don't like President Trump, he is a master marketer. And he's the one that made it clear during the campaign. That the biggest billboards we have is when you see prices in the grocery store and prices in the gas pump.

We have never seen a move of gas go from three to four dollars that quick.

And this is the president that has Brad, hi, it's a dollar 99. So it's clear to me that he's going to have to do something, okay, to bring the economy front and center. And something I thought was interesting. I mentioned yesterday on my fox hit. The GOP took out this big campaign ad where they're going to start talking a lot about the big beautiful bill. I don't think it's big. I don't think it's beautiful. It's certainly big, but the tax bill. But they're talking Tara about the no tax on tips and the no tax on overtime, which I think of both good policies on the flip side. You have the Democrats talking about you are going to take away health care to pay for the military war, the 200 billion.

So those are the two bookends. I would tell you, in my opinion, the Democratic narrative will resonate more than the Republican narrative on that. And we've seen it.

That there has been a flip 100% have been a flip red to blue for local elections. And so it feels to me, I don't like to predict on polls, but it feels to me there's a chance for this type of blue wave unless President Trump goes back to his it's all about the economy.

Yeah, it's interesting. Even in his own district is legislator there. She is now a Democrat. They've flipped from red to blue and the Marlago district.

But you're absolutely right. When a bright talk to Republicans about it, obviously, they're sort of a bit more blaze they're like, well, we redistricted so much that we don't expect it to be the kind of bloodbath that you saw in 2010 because they've pretty much, you know, locked it up.

“But I think I think everybody is aware that the Democrats will take back the house. It's just a matter of whether they can win the Senate. And I think if you see them win the Senate, then that is truly a blue wave.”

Yeah, I think the Senate's going to be tough. I agree that that's, you know, I'm probably being kind to the Democrats. It's a flip of a coin. I think the house feels to me that it's a question whether we win by 10 seats or 30 seats. But, you know, you were talking about the economy and the impact. Goldman Sachs today has estimated that the Trump wars is sometimes, you know, they're calling it could cost 10,000 jobs per month between now and the end of the year. So as I mentioned before, Tara, we're already in a situation. We have had no new job gains since May of 2025. Wow. We had recently had job losses.

We have a participation rate in the labor market that's somewhat lower than it has been. And now we're talking about the impact of the war causing more job losses. And we're not even talking about the impact May I.

“Yeah, so if, if this war continues for the next six months, what does the US economy look like?”

So we really never talk about this much, but I think people, I think people underestimate us and I'm a solm and brothers guy from the 80s.

So if you looked at my Twitter, my Pinterest tweet is me, it's all my brothers. Solm and brothers was the king of bonds. I'm a bond guy and I always think that the, the treasury rates are the most powerful. Right, there is in the market. It's more powerful than the stock market energy prices anything. It's the most powerful. If we see a real backup in treasury rates. So today, just to give everyone an idea, the 10 year treasury about a month ago was below 4%. It went up as high as 450, then you had president Trump the last few days put out all these announcements the war is over. And it's around 430. We had mortgage rates at that time go actually under 6%.

Which for homeowners for people looking to buy and those who are looking to sell and then get another mortgage, that's a critical level under 6%. They're now back to 6.5 even greater than creeping up.

So if we're in an inflationary environment and we have a backup of treasury rates, a few things happen. One, the cost for the governments much higher because we have 30 plus trillion in debt. So that's going to weigh us down. No. 2 credit cards are based off of treasury rates. That's going to impact everyone in this country.

“And then certainly mortgage rate. So the answer is, I think that it would. We would be in a very difficult situation. I think recession and stagnation would become front and center.”

You were talking when we were before we got in the phone that Larry think talked about from black rock, the last movie engine in the world. I think you were mentioning that he's predicting there's a possibility of 150 a barrel. There's a huge difference between 100 a barrel where it is today and 150 a barrel like we're talking night and day differences. And that could cause our recession. It could easily cause a recession and it could easily move towards stagnation. Yeah, and I think that's the other thing that like I've been thinking about because Trump is saying the war will be over in two weeks and that always seems to be his deadline right two weeks two weeks till you know we're going to extend the tariffs or two weeks until we pick up the tariffs like he's always got the two week extension.

Is this just going to be increments of two weeks and two weeks and two weeks and by doing that you're kind of messing with the not only the American psyche but the markets because they're kind of contingent on that.

“You know the one thing I would say this is the most transactional president in my lifetime he has his pulse on the stock market more than any president I've ever been around.”

And what's important to him may be different than what's important you know to you know to hardworking Americans because they're not as invested in the stock market. And so when he makes a comment like when we get out of the war gas prices are going right down. You know to me that could be factor fiction we don't know what's going to happen with the strainer of moves when we leave my view would be the president. You know I give incredible accolades for killing the eye to all of you know so let me just start with that.

The eye at all was a horrible person and what they've been doing for decades with respect to extreme terrorism you know we could we could there's been books and we could continue those books. You know what what I would say is if that was the goal. And the idea of making sure that they can that we've obliterated obliterated there the nuclear capability which supposedly we did most of that before then then my guess is he's going to say you know we're we're coming home. Middle East and and Europe you decide how you take it forward in Asia because it impacts you more we did what we need to do you know there's no longer nuclear proliferation you know in around and Iran you know that they have somewhat regime change that we think we can live with.

“And I think he's trying to play the Venezuelan game all over again and some comments he makes about Cuba all over again Iran is not those places and it has almost a hundred million people.”

Right and it's just it's not Venezuela so I don't think that comparison holds water.

Also okay we basically gifted them the straight-up removes okay if the rest of the global economy crashes that obviously impacts us as well and.

Sorry I lost my train of thought but. Lots of my turn of thought but yeah I mean like we're basically pulling out a bulletin said this to me on my on the show last week and we know John Bolton is a hawk and he's been desperate to go and go around for a year decades really. I mean that they could you know take us out with a nuclear weapon he said on the show that they did not have nuclear capabilities okay. He said they didn't and but he claimed that they could just buy a nuclear program from North Korea overnight 40 72 hours the nuclear program could be shipped from North Korea to Iran question is do you have intercontinental ballistic missiles North Korea.

Can't even get to Japan Iran could maybe hit Europe maybe but they have no they're not the place where they could get those those nukes over to us.

I mean it's all been a farce from the from the start even Tulsi Gabbard his own DNI testified that it would take 10 years for them to have a nuclear program so basically we have to strengthen Iran's hand we strengthen Russia's hand. And you know now are they going to be trading oil on the one like what's going on right now. Yeah, there's a there's a lot there certainly I have a lot of disagreements with John Bolton's perspective it's good to hear that he thought they don't have any nuclear capability left in Iran.

Certainly the president has intimated that although it feels like one of the things we're trying to make sure is that they don't have any capability even though we supposedly already obliterated it so you know my view is.

“Listen here's what's I think one of the saddest things is if you close your eyes and said we started a war.”

And in the first month those who have done the best economically obviously maybe not from a war perspective and those who have done the worse.

Russia has done by far the best. Iran has done the second best our allies in the Middle East have done the worst go think of what's going on in Qatar and in the Emirates.

So the idea that we have given sanction relief to Russia in Iran. And you could almost argue that hardworking Americans have had no economic relief and our allies have had no economic relief. You couldn't write that story no one would believe it. But that's kind of where we are today which is why I think the president has to reverse this completely. How can you reverse it by the way before we get into that.

SC3137 asks Celtics and we're going to have to get to that by the end of the show because that's a real question for a lot of people. You're going to get to start a war on this show okay, but yeah so yeah how do you reverse this and then we have another very astute. I mean, they were ways to reverse this I want to be clear one you back off to you may allow Iran to do some tolling okay doesn't truly impact us as much because you know we don't. We don't we don't use most of that oil number number number three you totally let me just finish number number number three you help UK you know will supply them more energy will supply them more LNG.

“I mean the only thing you can do is try to figure out how you're going to work with Iran in the new normal.”

I mean it's not going to end where I hate to say there was a there was an article today.

Robert how do you ever work with Iran we've never been able to work with Iran and suddenly we're going to be able to work with them on economic measures.

Well. I mean I would say that there was a time you know with the Iran nuclear deal that we was somewhat working with them and and we could we could argue whether that was good or bad I was a supporter of that. But what you've seen recently to your point is real Saudi Arabia the UAE they don't want to wrap this up. They're nervous to shit about Iran rebuilding quickly being more and boldened so yes our allies don't want to wrap this up. But the point I'm trying to make what the president can do and reversing what he's done is he can put it more on our allies to IE like he said go get your own oil and if that means there's a tolling so be it.

And that's not going to impact us at all it will but it will impact us less. So because that means it's straight our moves is open and really you know yes 20% of energy goes through that and if there's a tolling.

It's maybe a buck of barrel first for maybe you know call it five to ten million barrels a day we could that can be absorbed.

And you think that they will only charge a buck of barrel you don't think that they're going to go nuts with us. It's something like no no I think it's like two million dollars a ship and and based on how the larger ships carry amount of oil comes to like a buck of barrel. Let's say I don't have all the math down of the ships that go through the straighter move but I know.

“And I know math better than names but you know I think it comes to like a buck of barrel but remember we're we're not talking about.”

You know and then you could have at that point. So I'm sorry increase. They're getting richer and richer which is exactly what our sanctions were supposed to we're supposed to try to. I think that's a craziest thing I think if there's one thing that's a craziest thing about this call is that. We're going to get it in Iran has sanctioned relief and I'm going to reiterate that right this but our hard working but hard working Americans are feeling it at the pocketbook and our allies are feeling it.

It makes no sense to me that this is the outcome in the first month.

Yeah I mean we've lost the war essentially because you know it's all about who. Like what. I'm not sure I would agree what we've lost the war.

“I know a lot of people believe that I think if the war ended today and there and we got.”

When we have two knowledge is no nuclear capability and the eye at all is not there. You know and and and just said they could buy new from North Korea and if they got. If we're from letting people through the or move straight then there's we there's no way to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Yeah I don't know if that. Listen I'm not going to challenge Bolton on on on policy when it comes to I mean I did advise the Pentagon for the last two years and had national security clearance prior to Trump coming in.

You know China Russia Iran North Korea and extreme terrorism.

Those people all holding hands so what I'd be surprised at North Korea will help Iran and Russia will help Iran and and and they're all making more money and they're going to figure out how to help each other. No I wouldn't pass it by any of those devils. That being said that's not where I'm hoping and I'm praying that that's not the side we're going down. Well I don't think as Israel's going to stop just because we stop and I don't either.

“And I think it's good end in a really horrible way and I don't even want to say it on the show but I don't see how.”

I mean what do you think next step is.

I think next step is well he's going to. Listen he's going to talk tonight. I think he's going to talk that the war is ending soon because he knows that the Americans and the marketplace and the polling will like that. I think he will you know take a bow on we've obliterated them they have no nuclear capability. We've hurt them every which way our ballistic missiles are air force you know we've crushed them they have no navy.

And he's not going to answer the question of then what okay what about the straight or her moves and is it open he's just going to say that there's no deal until it's open but we're not going to know what that means tonight.

“And the truth is we don't even know who he's dealing with so you know.”

Check and see I think it's just going to be tonight's going to be you know where he just kind of.

Tells the country where in a great situation never been better and and we're going to be fine and gas is going to be down and you know listen this is a president to.

You know he throws a lot of darts and I think he gas lights a lot but I do think he is going to see based on the polling based on where the midterms look like we're down to six months to go. He's going to have to refocus on the economy that's clear to me and go back to his populist messaging. Okay before we wrap up I'm on BBC.com top of BBC says Iran denies Trump's claim requested see spire calling it false and baseless. Well you called it alleged. I did call it alleged I was waiting for confirmation from the Iot holo which is insanity that we are there we can like.

Yeah it it's um it's a shame we don't know fact from fiction. The Iot holo and his own true social account so that we can um his excuse me. Yeah that's that's disappointing but somewhat not surprising. Yeah on that note the Celtics are playing Miami heat tonight so again Celtics they're back on screen. Okay well of course the boy what can I say I actually probably be watching that game then Trump's address which by the way.

I shoot to everyone our families like the war the roses they're all in New York fans so yeah yeah yeah. Let's me verse everyone. Um I will say I like I reported for the red letter which you guys should all go to and subscribe at terapomary.com. Uh a few weeks ago that Republican really we're getting antsy they wanted Trump to sell the war and they felt like an oval office address would be the obviously easiest way to do it right since it's happened in the dead of night in March.

“We had no idea really that this was coming just kind of reports and soft launching but um you know that he need to do an oval office address it's day 30 I think that we are into the war at this point and he's finally doing it.”

And we'll have to see if he's actually able to sell the war that he claims is ending in a few weeks and I think a lot's writing on this oval office address because clearly. I think he's lost I think he's he's lost the trust to the people and like what do you have when you don't have that especially in wartime. Have you ever seen anything so volatile and unpredictable or is this just typical wartime. I think like I said this is the most transactional president that I've ever been around. You know he's on true social or interviewing each and every day.

Again, it's hard for me to follow you know I would say a Steve Bannon said you know we're going to flood the zone and change to wherever course we need to change. I've ever seen someone flood the zone like I said yesterday he said Iran only has BB guns tell that to Dubai. And we've got a tanker hit tell that to the guitaries you know he said we obliterated them but you know today he says you know we're going to blast them like there's no tomorrow.

I'm not hawkish.

And I hope we reverse course.

Yeah. Well thank you again Robert. Thank you.

“Anyone else who tuned in I hope you learned a lot I certainly did fingers crossed that this all ends in a peaceful way.”

And you know I always appreciate everyone who has tuned in of course subscribe if you're watching this on.

And a sub stack just hit that little subscribe button same for the red letter and of course you come up paid subscriber. I hope to come back on in a few weeks we can. I don't think the regular thing guys so you know send me all sent text at us tweet at us tell us what you want to talk about next week.

“We've got a lot of people right now hundreds of people on sub stack and YouTube so we appreciate you joining us for noon lunch.”

And hopefully the news will be better next week.

Thanks Hizu to said great interview. Thank you. Robert.

“Thank you have a great weekend everyone.”

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