Can Seixas Topple Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège? | THEMOVE+

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you know because if you look at Italian cycling right now, you know there's there's really good races. You know there we have Milan some ramos, we have two of Lombardy, we have Tireno, we have the zero. I mean those four, those are four like top top level races plus a bunch of other

really races but there's not one single Italian world to it. Right now which is which is actually unbelievable. Everybody welcome back to the move plus I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with y'all on Bernillo, we are going through the last week in cycling, news and race results.

The tour of the Alps, the five stage race through the T-Roll and South T-Rollian region in Austria and Italy just wrapped up Julio Pelazari, the 22-year-old on Red Bull Boire, a hands-garo one with an impressive final overall stage wind to wrap that up with the in-eos duo of time and armsmen and Egan Bernal coming in behind him.

I'm now forgetting which one, god second of which one got third.

It was Egan Bernal's second moving ahead of his teammate actually armsmen bumping him down the third. Pelazari was super impressive and then we will preview the age best on the age in the second part of the show and give our picks who we think is going to win. But you're on before we do that, let's just talk about tour the Alps before it is gone from our brain forever. I'd say the main takeaway is Ballzana looked unbelievably beautiful today.

Whatever sounds he rolled paid for that race, it was worth it because everyone's going to be moving there after watching that, but what was your big takeaway from the racing all week and then specifically today's top stage? Yeah, well, obviously you just said it but he's already won, he was the big favorite, Spencer.

Red Bull was really strong, but I would first want to go back a little bit to yesterday's stage.

One by Leonard Yash, German writer, 25 years old, who is still on the devol team of Tudor. And if I'm not mistaken, he is very new to cycling, he's an ex speed skater, whoa. So another athlete, you know, from another sport, in the breakaway, he was away with another writer, the Austrian guy, wasn't there was a caplinger, who's an ex-roar, high-level roar on Barrae.

“So apparently Leonard Yash comes from a speed skating family, his younger sister, I think,”

is an Olympian skater, also qualified for the Olympic Games. That was an impressive win from him, from that breakaway. He doesn't look like he can climb it all. It's quite bulky, big legs, but he managed to get away from the breakaway and kept his very small advantage to charging Peloton. I think it was Q36.5 pulling for Pitcock, who had come back into it. It was a very reduced Peloton. So that was an impressive win.

From another writer, we don't know. I think the first stage was also one of my writers. We didn't know, right? What is it, Tomasso Datti? From the Eucl team or Eucloty, Eucloty, Eucloty. And they got a 5th stage forward too. Yes, yes, yes. Okay, you know, we have to say two of the ops is a mix of, there are all kinds of teams, right? I've seen that quite a few world two teams have used this race to have their devour writers join the pros. It was a mix of in the teams.

And then, you know, the second level teams and also third level teams were there, which is also

“nice. I think it makes for good racing. But today's stage was clear. This was going to be the”

decisive stage. It was super hard to, two times up that big climb. It was a hard climb. Twelve kilometer climb, I think, with some really steep parts in. They were kind of fighting

a stage two, I think he won. But now it was there, Arnold's one was there. They were, I think they were four seconds and six seconds down on GC. So there was a bonification sprint on the, just before the

top of the second of the last climb. So initially, in AOs was setting the pace. It was a break away,

because Pitcock was in the break with this young Colombian writer from the devour team of EF. But they caught them. And initially, it looked like that was going to be the decisive moment that bonus sprint, two kilometers from the top of the last climb. And, yeah, pretty Jari just said, hey, no way. I'm going to make it. Christopher Clear, who's the strongest guy here. He attacked with four K from the top. So two kilometers before the bonus sprint got the bonuses, of course,

and then was one very dominant. He got 15 seconds on the top and then took another 15 seconds

“in the downhill. I think he confirms, you know, his quality, his status also as a serious”

podium candidate for the 0. And then also, you know, seeing Bernal, Edgar Bernal at this level, it's really good. He looked very solid. He was just a bit of the pace whenever it was super fast

on the climbs, but he'd never broke down and was very consistent and finished second to the

in the stage and also second in G.C. And then with time and audience month, third position, I think it's a very nice podium. And three guys who are going to be protagonist in the 0. Yeah, and I mean, it was super impressive, because he didn't have, he said, like 15 seconds. It was like probably 10 to 15 seconds at the top. And the road is so steep. It looks like less. And it was Bernal Arndman's store of three really strong riders right behind him. And if you've

“ever done this road, it doesn't, it doesn't go down right away. It's kind of a plateau.”

You would think it'd be harder to stay away as a single rider, a head of three strong riders on a little plateau. He was sent in the finish and he just kept pulling the gap open. I mean, super impressive. Like shows shows how strong he is. Definitely signals that he's ready for this year to tie up. Probably not probably won't beat Jonas for the guard if we're being honest, but I mean, the Italians want to be excited, Johan. That like this is a legitimate

young star, 20 years old, podium contender for this year to tie up. I would imagine that this is going to be big, big in the home country. Yeah, I mean, he was already, was he fifth last year in the gyro? Yeah, he was fifth. It was from impressive. Fick in the gyro and fifth in the Volta, which is hard to do in the same year at that age. Yeah. So it's six, six step both, six and six. Yeah. Yeah. You know, he's definitely made a step forward this year. And you know, has also

the confidence of his team. As you say, I also see it very difficult for him to challenge Jonas when you guard, unless something happens, that we don't we can't know of right now. But yeah, I mean, this and it's Italy needs a rider that is at the front, you know, because if you look at Italian cycling right now, you know, there's there's really good races. You know, there we have Milanson Ramos, we have two of Lombardy, we have Tireno, we have the gyro. I mean, those photos

are for like top top, top level races plus a bunch of other really races, but there's not one single Italian world to a team right now, which is, which is actually unbelievable. A Pelizarre is young, he's still only 22 already, you know, already a very established rider.

“So yeah, I think the Italian media is going to be excited about this, the fans, of course, also.”

It looks like he's a very likable guy, you know, and very friendly. I still have these images fresh in my memory when he was that young, was in 19 year old, on 19 year old, on Bargiani, who got passed in the gyro by, by Pogacha, just melt down, yeah, the final five hundred meters. Yeah, and then, you know, was there in the tent, you know, and Pogacha gave him his glasses and he was

happy as a kid, asking for a signature, basically. And now he's up there, you know, so that's really nice,

nice to see. But yeah, I think, you know, logics has been respected. The differences were not that big until today, but today, I think Pelizarre made it clear that he was the strongest by far in this race, and also his team controlled perfectly the whole all the stages.

since the beginning of the season. You know, I, I, I, I seem to remember, I've been said, it was, you know, it was after the Major Carraces in Valencia races. So, you know, it

“definitely not the level of these races, but I think I remember saying, this is a different team,”

they behave better, they behave differently in the race, they, they impose their will on the race, because there's a new sheriff in town, Remco, even a pool. And, but it's not just when Remco's racing,

it's, basically, in all the races, they are very prominently visible. You know, we see Pelizarre,

we see the, the, the classic team, the Vandeca brothers on a, on a really high level. So, I'm sure I'm forgetting another guy, other guys on Red Bull who are really, but they, they stepped up, they stepped up, it's still not, you know, it's not UAE, but they are definitely forced to be reckoned with in, in the majority of the races. Yeah, Yohan, they were also graded opening classics weekend. If you remember back to that, Remco have an pull obviously not there, but

you're right, it's been a big shift in the team. I was thinking today, must be so hard for guys, like think of Orangeman Bernal's store, all incredibly good writers, but all aged, let's say 26 to 29 or 30. And then you're having to compete against these guys. Like, you mentioned Pelizarre getting second at that zero stage. That was in 24, comes back in 25,

he's even better. Now in 26, he's even better than he was in 25. And you're always competing

against these guys who just seem to get better every year. Like, that would be overwhelming.

“I feel like, how do you, how would you even deal with that? I think, you know, it's not,”

it's not a mathematical answer. You know, there is obviously this trend of young writers getting better, younger and sooner. But there's always other guys, you know, there are guys, I mean, look at, we've gone over these, over these numbers, after two or flounders and Pari Dubai, the top 10 was mainly guys of 30 years and over. You know, it's not because the young guys are coming that when you're 25, 26, 27, it's, you're supposed to be at your best then.

Recently, we saw, for example, some old or Schmidt, 26 years old, getting second at

flesh alone. So, you know, I definitely would not obsess about, you know, if I'm a cyclist right now, and I'm in my mid 20s towards late 20s, I would be convinced that these are my best years. There is no way that you can be on the decline already then. It must be difficult and challenging mentally to see this wave of young guys coming. But, then at the same time, it is something that we've been seeing the last three, four or five years.

Let's see how all these 19, 20, 21 year old guys are when they're 27, 28. That still needs to be seen, right? And I think it's not just physically, it's definitely a motivational and mental issue. If you're so good, so young, how long can you stay focused and motivated and on the top of your game? That's something that I'm curious to see. You know, I don't totally disagree with that, but people say that they just let's just think people say,

you can't be that young. What professional cyclist at 2021 was not focused, though? Like was that ever a thing? No, that's what I mean. Yeah, well, I would say, Pogaccia was not focused when he was at age or definitely not as focused as he is now. I mean, I get, I mean, we maybe have to set him aside because he did win a tour to France at that age.

“So, but if you look at Pogaccia, that's I think that's what set Pogaccia are a part of”

everybody else is that. And I keep saying this, you know, he won two times the tour when he was not 100 professional. He was he probably thought he was living like a professional, but he was not. You know, he was physically, he was definitely didn't have the body structure. By the way, Spencer, morphology is an English word. I was thinking about that. Yeah, it is. You know, it sounds ridiculous now, but it was also a different era where you could get away with

being less focused. And now you, you really can't. Yeah, and the guy was living and think about November, December, January. He basically lived in a hotel in Spain and trained. Like that,

I don't know, but we're also at this time. You know, as a young rider, I think you can do that, especially, you know, you know what you want, you're focused, you're super ambitious. And most importantly, you have no, you have no, no kids. Right. Yeah, I think something that the young guys have the advantage over somebody who has a family already, you know, you can't just go three months in a hotel,

“or you need to have your, your, your whole family with you, and that's probably not ideal eater.”

So, you know, when, when you're 18, 19, 20, 21, you focus on yourself and on yourself only. And, and that's what you're supposed to do as an athlete at any age, but, you know, life gets in the way, and you know, there's also other important aspects of your life amongst them having kids and family, which then obviously becomes a bit of, a bit of an obstacle in, in your preparation. I mean, we constantly see it on the other hand, you're not complaining about how hard the life

of a pro-cyclist is, you know, and he, he recently went on record saying that he would never

recommend his children to go into cycling because it's hard on the family, and it is hard on the family, but at the same time, if you want to be the best, that's, you know, you need to set your priorities. I have a lot of thoughts about that, but he's right. I mean, I can't imagine. I should say, up top, I cannot believe people with kids are professional cyclists, because I don't want you to just set out, like, to go away for three weeks. So like, hey, guys, I'm going to be up on

a mountain for three weeks. See, uh, and that's not even counting the race. So I can't imagine that.

“I would say, though, that's all, he makes a lot of money. I think it, the funny, the thing”

bothers me a little bit about Jonas is he tends to just like ignore that. Like, oh, I can't believe I have to go do these camps. It's like, well, you are being reneumerated at a multiple above what anyone, most anyone in the world will ever make in their life. Like, there is, it's sacrifice, but there is a reward for the sacrifice. So, and it's temporary. No, it's temporary. Yeah, yeah. So I do think that gets glossed over quite a bit. But if I had a career that was

paying me between five and 10 million euros a year, I don't know if I would flip it and leave

you like, I would not recommend this to my children. It's like, well, maybe my kids want to want to be ballers. Maybe they want to live in Monaco. They want to make a bunch of money. So, you know, you got to make money to do that. But did you see, did you notice, who? This is a hard stage, by the way, that you said that. But Pelazari proved he was the strongest rider in the race. Like, without a doubt, it's funny that people were even fighting for bonus seconds and previous

stages because it didn't come down to that. But in August 2nd, this is on the stage. Store third, Aaron's been forced. Did you see he got fit? Speaking of young riders. Yaka, almost almost almost 20 year old Sabinean. Yeah, sometimes they keep an eye on there. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean, he's already been knocking on the door. He won the baby zero last year. Has been, you know, consider the next big talent of Slovenia. I remember last year was the last year. Last year,

I've already two years ago. I don't remember now. We, we had dinner with Yani Braikovic in Slovenia. And I asked him, I said, who's the young guy to, to look out for in Slovenia? And he said, "Omerzel." And then a few months later, he won the baby zero. So, definitely

“big talent than a guy. Yeah, and I would say we should, you should always be cautious about these”

young riders. You can't just project, oh, they're going to get better. They're going to be the best. I would say, Pelazari, I do think he's a future star. I mean, this guy's been so impressive. Every time I see him race, him thing with Paul, six hours. Every time I see him race, he looks better than when I saw him before. That's, you kind of reminds me of, that's how Pagotchara is every year. He's better than the year before. It gets better. Quick question for you. Why was Jacob Alula working on

the front through a lot of the stage? What, what was going on with that? That's a very good question, Spencer, and I don't have the answer. It must have been for Ben O'Connor thinking he had a chance to

ride away. We first of all, that was a breakaway, and they had nobody in it. So, you know, if you

want to have a good result, first you have to catch the breakaway, but you know that on a stage like the day stage with two massive climbs of 12 kilometers uphill, the breakaway is going to come back by itself, because of, you know, the nature of the race. So, I don't know. You know what you also

riders. There's one guy who's feeling more or less okay, and the other three are hanging on

for dear life, and sometimes the riders themselves say, you know what? I may as well do something and make myself useful. And so, I'm going to go ride at the front, because I'm going to get dropped anyway. So, let's do it. You know, and then he finds two candidates of his team was to feel the same, and they just go to the front and start to ride. I don't really know why they were doing that. I guess, I mean, you said that Ben O'Connor slipped into the top 10, but that cannot be

that cannot be a goal for a team. It's better to be in the top 10 than not be in the top 10, but, you know, to sacrifice your team for that, especially if it's, I mean, it's for top three

is different, but, you know, if it's eight, nine to ten place in two of the ups, that's not really

what a team like Jacob should be riding for, and then on the other hand, okay, what else could they have gotten out of this stage? Nothing. So, yeah, at least they did something useful. It did just have me thinking, because let's say you only think about the race in terms of optimizing your

“finish in the race. So, you'd say, don't do that. You should save the team and go later.”

Is there, is there, is there, do you think it's a calculation ever of, hey, it's a Friday, last day of the race? We need, like, we need to get a workout in. Is that, is that ever a factor here? Like, you got to get that TSS score up? Not really, not really, you know. I mean, you know, as, two of the ups is a hard race. I mean, if you do all five stages, trust me, they have their work done for the week, whether they've been cooling or not,

because the guys who were pulling were, you know, they could, they had somewhat of climbers but not top climbers. So, no, that, I don't think that's, that could be considered as a reason why they were doing that. I don't know why they did it. I don't know. Do you think people ever get concerned as a three and a

“half hour stage? That's like half as much as you'd be training if you were at a camp right now?”

Do they ever get concerned about the volume not being high enough? Or is the intensity so high that stage races, I mean, especially with these were all very difficult stages, even the sprint stages, where, I mean, look, yesterday, yeah, they were all really hard. Yesterday was, I mean, yeah, the guy came in by himself and then it was a sprint of what was it 20 guys together? It was 4,000 meters of elevation yesterday. I'm just in the space. It was, it was longer, too. It was like four and a half hours.

So, for some riders, that's five hours, five hours away with 13,000 feet of climbing. Yeah. But five days after each other, Spencer, it's, you know, a stage race is unless it's an easy, you know, you can say, well, whatever it's, you know, I mean, it's down to one day, now back in the day, for example, two of mercy are something, you know, three or four days, it's easy stages. That could make you say, in today's cycling, you say, okay, I'm concerned,

I'm detraining because the Palatong goes easy, they know it's a sprint. Those things don't happen any more, anyways, Spencer. I mean, which race have we seen this year? Well, it's less than 45 kilometers average. It's only the big mountain stages and that's already, you know, then it, that's super hard because of the course. So, any race nowadays, it's full gas from the beginning. When you race,

“you're, you're, you're training intensity in the, you know, I went on the record. I think all”

stages are hard. I've never thought a stage race was easy in my life. So, I don't think this is me,

saying, hey, these guys got a train. I just remember Simon Yates. It was this big thing at Jaco. I still can't believe it happened. They were so concerned that the zero was so easy. Simon Yates was doing workouts on the trainer after stages. And do you want to guess what happened to Simon Yates at the end of this year to tell you that this was happening? He, he, he, he absolutely exploded. So, he was flying, he was flying, he was flying that in the last two weeks. He was flying and then he

cracked on the day of called the finest, you know, day before at, well, he cracked on that day, but the day before the initial crack showed, it was like a summit finish that he got dropped on last the time. Was it on the zonkulan? No, it was like an unspectacular. It was kind of one of these like uphill finishes into a town. Now that's now you're taking me back. So, stage, let's go back to stage 19 of this year to tell you that. No, that was the finisher stage. So, stage 18,

from Tom Dumoulon, the middle pose of Vivo in classic timeless pose of Vivo. But then maybe that was the

end of any any gamification of we need to train while we're in a stage race because stage race is hard enough. Is that a myth or is it, is it real? I don't know. I have difficulties believing that a rider would do extra efforts on the home trainer because of stages, I don't know, hard enough. In a three week stage race, I can't get my head around that. The only reason I, I had a job at the time at Villanoza where I had to listen to every post race interview from every rider and I just

remember every day. All Jacob was talking about was how they were so concerned about the race being too easy. Maybe a mistake in retrospect, but anything else on tour of the apps. I mean, all of these guys that we just mentioned, Pelazari, Egan Bernal, Timon Arinsman, who else was up here. Michael Store, Ben O'Connor. It's Ben O'Connor. Yeah, they're all going to the Giro de Tio. So this is like a precursor to

“the Giro de Tio. You still be confident about Jonas the Giro after seeing this demonstration from Pelazari?”

No, I don't have a single doubt in my mind that Jonas is one or two levels above everybody. Jonas built four sheds in his yard during this race. He's ready to go. I finished the floor in the kitchen. I did hear that he stayed at home in between the tour of the Vultilastia. He didn't go out to just stay at home. And the guys got kids hanging off from them staying at home still wins the Vultilastonia. So maybe maybe having kids is actually

good for your riding. Who knows? I've seen from where that Jonas has gone on record in an interview that his form is where he wants it to be and that he's ready at his ambition as his goal is to win the Giro. And he's even talking about winning the tour again that you know they've been switching with today you know two years, two years, two years, two years. It's his turn again. So he sounds

“very confident also for the tour. Where is he right now? Do you think?”

But he was training on, he was at altitude for sure. He was you know that picture that video that went viral there with his ankle socks and his music box on his bike. That was filmed by SEPCUS so I think they were on on the tated. Yeah I mean which which goes back to that's hard. It's the way from the family. Like I actually I would find that to be harder than the racing. If I was a pro, just leave in the family to go to these altitude camps. I did SEPCUS. I couldn't

tell if this was current on it. Luckily he was in the Alps. And it's some altitude camp. Oh it's the edge. The riding with snow. Yeah it was like all the snow and stuff. While he had a bike. He doesn't need to go far, you know what I mean? He can he can go to

I don't like ways to let 2000 or something. Yeah I mean from niece for he can he can basically

ride there on a big ride and be in the snow up in the mountains. I don't think he was at the altitude right now. Okay. Okay. Yeah you're right. I didn't consider that. Could have just been on a ride from his house up to some Alpine people. Let's take a quick break the most preview Sunday's Leish best on the edge. Everybody this episode is brought to you by Rugeet. Life comes at your fast between work relationships and everything else in your plate. You want to know

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We're back. We have the final spring monument coming up. Please, best on the edge. We kind of had a little interregnant period there with Amstog Gold keeping us busy. We had flush balloon, but now we're getting serious again. We're buckling down. It's listed at 259.5 kilometers. Let's just call it 260 kilometers. We're still in Belgium, but we are not in flangers. We are in the Volonia region, the French-speaking region of Belgium. Other than the language and the economy and

everything else, one of the things that is different is it's almost like mini mountain ranges. You know, they're called hills, but it's a lot, a lot of climbing at this race. A very difficult climbing a focused race. One day race, usually one by one of in recent years, at least one by Pagoteta Pagotcha, who's won the last two years. The two years before that, one by Rimko Evinapul,

“the year before that, one by Tata Pagotcha. So as is tradition, one of those will win. And I believe”

one of the years Rimko won Pagotcha did not start. The other year Pagotcha crashed early in the race from broke his wrist. So all this, just the, the betting odds to give us to anchor us and who is the favorite for this race, and then you tell me who you think's going to win. Tata Pagotcha is the favorite.

At minus 290, that's ridiculous for one. They race. Paul Sicsos, second favorite, plus 319

years old. Rimko Evinapul plus 600, Mattayers, two-time champion, half as good of odds is a 19-year-old. Mattayers scheduled most of plus 2,500 Julia Chocone plus 3,000 Tom Pickock plus 5,000, who was in the break away today at two of the Alps, Kevin Vachlan plus 6,500. I won't go on because I don't think anyone else has a chance to win, but Johann, who's going to win this race? How's it going to play out? Where's the winning move going to go? I think it's difficult. It's very

difficult to, do not say Pagotcha or Spencer. There's a lot of hype now around Paul Sicsos and rightfully so. There's also a reason why he's the second favorite, right? With the bookmakers. But Mattayers was only at such a hard race. The oldest classic, by the way, they call it Ladoyan, Ladoyan, and French means the old lady. First, the first time ever raised in 1892, that's how old this race is. And, yeah, I mean, you're right. There are no mountains in Belgium.

The gardens are definitely the Waluner dents, or definitely a hilly terrain, plans of 1, 2, 3 kilometers maximum, definitely very different than the Flemmischer dents, which are also hilly, but that there is more glowing terrain. I think the difference, and that's

“I think that's why Pagotcha is such a happy favorite. It's a monument. It's 260 kilometers,”

4,100 meters of elevation, and I think that's why Pagotcha is the happy favorite over Paul Sicsos. Paul Sicsos is obviously in top shape. I think that's what's going to make the difference. If you look at where you already have a lot of climb, I don't know how many climbs there are, but definitely more than 15 or 18 climbs, I don't know. But the last four climbs, starting with Ladoyan, Ladoyan is typically, it's not long, but it's steep, and it's usually

and historically been always the climb where the decisive move goes. That comes after 225 kilometers.

So that's something that Paul Sicsos, until now, he has not raised that distance yet, I think.

I don't know about that, but I don't think so. Well, he did world in Lombardia, so well, 241 is long now. Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay. World is 27. Yeah, my mistake, my mistake. Yeah, but still, Pagotcha has this, this is his favorite terrain monuments, right? This is why he wins so many, because that's so hard at the end. And so you have Ladoota after 225 kilometers, and from 225 till 249, those are the last four climbs in a time of 24 kilometers. The four climbs, there's no, almost no time for

recovery. You have Ladoota, and you have straight after Ladoota, you go down a bit, you have called code the cornimo, which is not, not big, but it's where, for example, if you remember correctly, it's where Remko, even a pool, dropped Tompitcock in one of the race, the way he wants. So it's, it's it's like a kilometer and a half, five percent, but it's, you have that pain from Ladoota in the legs, you haven't recovered. Then you have code the force, and then Ladoota, Lado show full cone,

“which comes after 249 kilometers, and it's still 10 kilometers to the finish. So I think for”

Pagotcha, that is ideal terrain, you know, those four climbs with all the efforts of the 225 kilometers before already in the legs. I think he's going solo, and even with Sajas, I think Pagotcha wins. I think he wins solo. From the, for the moment we've seen Pagotcha, I think he's stronger than last year. He's improved compared to last year, so I don't see any reason why he, he wouldn't win again. I haven't looked at the letter. No, what's, what's the letter going to be?

Sure, sure. Do you remember this like, this narrative, what was Pagotcha not good in? He wasn't good in heat for a while, right? He was only good. Yeah, well, forget about that. It says, I mean,

this is almost perfect bike racing weather, 16 degrees, 10 percent chance of precipitation. Okay,

well, that's, that's good for, that's good for everybody else. Because yeah, 17 degrees, wind is not to, not to bad. Yeah, okay, not bad. Listen, if it's bad weather, he's even going to be more dominant. Although we have seen, we have seen that Sajas can also ride in the bad weather. So was Ramko. I think these three guys are the favorites for a reason. Pagotcha are minus two hundred and ninety. That's, that's pretty, that's pretty insane, actually,

“if you think about it for a one day race, but that's how heavy of a favorite he is and how”

difficult, everybody sees some of the else winning this race. What do you think? Yeah, well, the way the math works on that is at minus two ninety. It means if you think he

is a greater than 74 percent chance of winning, you should bet on him. And that's probably correct,

don't you think? Three, four. If they race this race four times, he wins three. So that'd be 75 percent. I think he's already won it. He's already won it three times against against a lot of these same guys. I think the big wild card is, we're going to talk about people we think are going to do well. But Ramko, I don't think is a problem for him on that, especially on this course. This is a, this is a much harder course in Amstogold. This is like the perfect course for Pagotcha. Because

I'm looking at the last 35 K. It's like a shark's tooth. You know, it's these really hard

“climbs, as you said, back to back to back to back. I think Ramko's not a problem for him. I think”

Tom Pickock is not, you know, he, he won a stage of two of the Alps. He's in the breakway today. But a good Tom Pickock is, is in the GC group at the end of that stage. He's not in the breakway. I was the back from injury also, Spencer. Yeah. He had, it's this bad crash in the downhill of Duro of Catalonia was, you know, doubtful. I mean, I had to skip Amstog, he did two of the Alps in an attempt to get ready for the Alps. But even if he won a stage, I don't think,

I mean, today he was not in the GC group because he was in the breakway all day. It didn't really a strong, strong ride. But I don't think Pickock will be there. Not with the top five favorites. I don't think so. He comes back from from this injury and he cannot be ready. And also, will he be recovered. You know, and today was a really hard stage. It's Friday. You know, travel to Belgium only tomorrow to rest normally. You're not recovered for a monument

of 260 kilometers. But still, it's Pickock. It's one of those riders who has this incredible talent

and do things that normally nobody else can do. But I don't see Pickock in the top three,

test. You can't cram for the edge best on the edge. That's not going to work. I think the only wild

“card is I do think Pickock is going to win. I think minus two 90s is steep price. But”

that frankly, that's who I'm betting on. I think the big wild card is Paul success. That plus

200 is that those are generous odds for a teenager who's never done this race before. But

everyone's excited about flesh alone. You know, he did the Johan. He did the climb faster than Pickock chart. That means he's stronger than I've seen that post like a hundred times like chill out on the climbing time comparison people. But I don't think he can hang with Pickock chart. I think the climbs you outlined is the perfect terrain for Pickock. The question is how long can he hang with him? He did a good job, man. It's rather beyond kit. Look for a wilder that he,

you know, he got gaped a bit than he stayed. He stayed together with him. He got dropped on the

“Montezano Montezano. Yeah. And he kind of had to come around. I believe Pickock was on the wheel”

and dropped the chain and then he had to come around. Yeah. Yeah. So he wasn't an even in a great position. Yeah. But yeah. I mean, yeah. I don't know if those images of Pickock chart climbing that, you know, that climber in this snow, if they're recent, I think they are. Man, let me tell you, he looks in great shape. He looks in really good shape. You know, if you look at those legs, those legs are ready. You know, the thing with, I mean, that doesn't really matter that much.

I think because it's Pugachar, but let's not forget that UAE is incredibly weakened overall. I think they have like 12 or 13 riders. It kind of matters. Yeah. Yeah. So they do not have their strongest possible team. So, I mean, normally, normally it's going to be from the start everything on UAE. They got, they'll have two or three guys. I saw, they have Dom and Novak, and they have the Timmelons, it's back. Yeah. Timmelons is not, not, not, not good yet.

I mean, he broke his collarbone, right? In one of the races. Yeah. But he doesn't have to be, he doesn't have to make it overall overdue. He's just got a set off pace, you know. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They actually have some strong, strong routine that I thought originally. Ben Walker was in the front. We know he's good. Yeah. Pablo Sivakov, he's pretty good. He's good. Dom and Novak, Timmelons, even a weekend, Timmelons. Roon Harroguts. Harroguts. Yeah. And then stock a

Van Gogh Langen. Okay. So it's going to be long and long and in Harroguts, those two poor guys, they're in charge of the first one. We got a few kilometers. You will, that's you work for

a professional team. You will not see them because they will be pulling so early. It's never.

200 kilometers, those two guys controlling the breakaway. And then it's going to be Novak on Lara Dut. He did, I mean, he did it last year, two years ago. He did an amazing job. At that's the bottom and then it's going to be well and then Kosovo Fror and Sivakov to speed up on Lara Dut. And there's not going to be much, many guys left when they, when the last guy of UAE pulls off, typically it should be Kosovo Fror who does the last

lead out for Pogachara on Lara Dut. He's explosive, a bit like Narvice, you know? I was going to say he's going to do a kind of rider. Yeah, he's like a doing a Narvice and

“pressure in the spring. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that, you know, on paper, that's what you would say,”

okay, this is the scenario right now. There's always going to be one of those guys who

didn't have a great day who feels a bit off, you know, they're going to have to switch positions whatever. At the end, you know, it's Pogachara. That's really matter. Probably not. Well, that's not, that's an entertaining content. But here's the thing that's really tricky for everybody else. Let's say Paul, Paul, success stays with him, unbelievable ride. He still doesn't win, right? Because he gets beaten the sprint by Pogachara. So it's, it's an uphill battle for him to win.

Yeah. Yeah. I would like to see, I mean, it would be nice if it's a two-man sprint. You never know after. I mean, that would be thrilling. If it was those two guys sprinting against each other, that would be awesome. Yeah. Man, say, it's not, though, I have to say, Spencer, I mean, this guy is so mature. I've seen the interview after Fleshvalon and I've seen an other analysis of him of the mirror of we and he was looking at on the phone and they were filming him and he just broke

to be, these guys, when you're strong, and they make it sounds so simple. It's like, okay, yeah, here, I looked back. I saw that we're suffering with accelerated a bit. Then I heard that they were breathing heavier, and then I did another acceleration, and I was gone. It's simple as that. Well, that's like when people are like, oh, he's hit the load on his body is going to be too much. It's like, he's aiming the load on his body is less than everybody else because he's,

can you imagine doing the murder we and that's your takeaway? It's like, I just had to go.

But that's basically what Demi Ballarine was saying. I've never seen anyone ride a climb. Like,

she just rode it as though no one else was in the race. Yeah, well, I mean, she didn't

“exactly do the same like, I mean, I'm off on the bread and I think she wanted six times, right?”

The flesh were long. Yeah. She did the same. It was the same. She went to the front to start a bit. It was a super high gear. Hey, I gave it and just started riding and accelerating. And one, yeah, Demi Ballarine is this year. She's on a high level. Like, I mean, Poly, Poly inferno provost was there. She had no chance. But Peter's a game back. Well, yeah, she was coming almost, almost foiled that. And then Demi was like, well, I saw her coming.

So I had to sprint. Yeah, were you originally not planning on sprinting? He's going to ride everybody out for wheel. Yeah. Yeah. Well, if it's not, well, so how do you think we both, I think we both think, we got charred and Paul, I mean, so I'm really working on this name. Paul, six, six are going to be the two favorites. How does room co have an apple fit into this

“trio? The third. And he says, I think, try to not get dropped on Laverdo. He's going to get dropped”

on Laverdo. From Pugachar. I think, but yeah, just say steady, stay steady. And you know, one of the scenarios could be that sex has tries to follow Pugachar. He will try to follow him blows up and then gets reeled in by Ramco and then they write together. Well, yeah, they're just going to say this is not shot a Bianchi where it's relatively easy to ride away. And these gaps are not usually big at all. It's not a great course. You can't stack

up a huge, usually you can't stack up a huge amount between. So you have Laverdo to do you have a good accordingly, then go the first. And then I think that there's about eight kilometers between go the first and Laverdo so that's where if you're at it like Pugachar is a way, it's obviously also a lot downhill. But you know, if you have two three strong riders behind, they could potentially reduce that difference a bit. But then, you know, you get to the bottom of Laverdo

or something for coin, it's like you start going over again. Yeah, I do think that's the formula, though. Instead of going with them, trying to get some sort of chase, like a Remco lead chase, like

Amstil Gold last year. The problem is also with Ramco, you know, who wants to be away with Ramco,

there's no draft behind it. It's a good point. That's also a problem. Ramco has, you know, whenever he's away with someone, he goes so fast on the on the flats, then I always has to slow down for somebody to be able to pass. And the guy who just does a pull and said, okay, I'm not going to pull too fast because as soon as I get behind the guy, I don't have draft. Yeah, I mean, position it. Images from Amstil and it's not fair. Look,

yeah, Schkelemosa, even of Schkelemosa is not doing any work. And he's also tiny. He's also tiny. And he's getting hammered by this win because I wrote Ramco, seeing you know, that stage in Catalonia where Ramco and Jonas went away. Yes, you know how tiny Jonas is. He looked massive behind the Ramco. And if you see Jonas in real life, he's but there's no profile on that bike. That is, it is mind blowing how Arrow Rico is,

“do you, let's say Pagachira doesn't win. Who's your wild card to win this race?”

Ah, it's going to be sex half. If Pagachira doesn't win, it's going to be sex half. But, you know, a guy I would really like to see do well because it looks to me like he has a great beginning of the season and

his second place of Wednesday, in Fleshballon confirms that Maudro Schmidt. I'm not going to say

he's going to win, but you know, it's a guy who can be in the final and then when things come back together can come to the front at the end. But that's probably, I mean, that would be a scenario where all the other favorites fail. But I think I would like to see Maudro Schmidt in the front. Yeah, Chikone will probably in the front, scale moves, is in great shape. So he did,

time of where he started, same with Maudro Schmidt, by the way, Maudro Schmidt was positioned all the way in the back of the main territory of opposition. So if you would time his real time like when when he starts, that's probably like probably five, six seconds behind. So he probably went up in the same time as sex us. And scale moves are the same. He got 15. Usually it's the same guys, right bent to let it's going to be up there. And my opinion, he's in great shape.

But these guys are obviously below a level below these street names. We've said, Paul Godcharo, sex us and Ram Gov in the pool. Schmidt is 10, that plus 10,000 for the win,

which feels low to me based and he looks incredible. I would say he's probably not going to win.

But if you go back and look at podiums of this race, there are riders in the podium. You don't remember being on the podium. Like Santiago Santiago Betrago, 2023, Chicone was second last year. Matthew Vanderpool was third and 2024. Well,

“and art was third and 2022. The podium is wide. Is it widely weighted in that moment?”

Second. Yes. Quentin Hermes. Wait, wait. What year was that? 2022? Same as Vanilla. He beat Vanilla. Yeah. Crazy. So if you can find a way to bet on Schmidt for the podium, I think that would be a good, a really good pick. Or even Schummoza. I'm both those guys look really good. I'm going to give my super wild card is my guy Kevin Boclon. He's had some bad luck. He's plus 65 under for the win. Probably not going to win, but

good, good little podium pick if you can find what you bet on him for the podium. He's a solid rider.

Yeah. He was on a on a teammates bike on the, a flush full on, which is never a good way to finish that

race. No, that's you don't want to go up, you do we on a teammates bike, man. That's that's not fun. Now, and before we go, a little bit of news came across her desk. Grandma Paul, I guess.

“Reportedly, is this, is this confirmed signs a lifetime deal with specialized bikes?”

Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's also, I mean, it's, obviously, specialized likes. Ramco makes them sell a lot of bikes. I guess. Ramco loves the brand. He's never been on any other bike since he's a professional. Then it's specialized. So, you know, and, and it also confirms the interest of specialized to keep going red bull. You know, there's a, there's a big extra budget, because it's been announced officially that specialized will not renew their sponsorship with Sudokwix step.

Sudokwix step next year would be on Merida, who is sitting one year out of the world tour, but it's such a big bike brand and big manufacturer that they kind of have to be in the, in the professional cycling. So, yeah, that means that Ramco is, you know, set with specialized, probably set with Red Bull for a very long time. And if there would ever be a way of, you know, if Ramco doesn't stay with with, with Red Bull, he, you know, he's interesting for any

other team because he comes with a new, a really nice back sponsor. Yeah, and he kind of is this kind of already how it worked, because he, he left Sudokwix went to a specialized team in Red Bull,

or Red Bull, whatever they were called at the time that he went there. So, he's kind of always

been to other specialized. It sounds crazy. Like, whoa, a lifetime deal, but, you know, Matthew Vanderpool is what a 10 year deal with Canon. Can't, sorry, Canyon. So, yeah, I, I 10 year deal is probably the rest of his career. Well, I mean, Peter Sagan has a lifetime deal with specialized. Yeah, he's going to be just, you know, when he left when he left think of and went to Bora, he took specialized with, yeah, then he left Bora, because before it was, before Red Bull was

called Bora, right? Then he left Bora went to total energies, took specialized with him as soon as his, his, his, his Sagan stopped his career, specialized Bull, the out of total energies. And, but, but, so that Sagan is still an ambassador for specialized is, is at all their events. And he gets, you know, he gets paid every year, like, the lifetime deal and, for sure, some sort of show. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, they don't do it for free spend.

But it's a nice annuity for these writers, because like, Peter Sagan and Remco in the future, it's like you have a job forever because you've stayed with this brand, exactly whole career.

“Do you know, interestingly about Maria, do you know who owns 49% of specialized?”

Medida, Maria. Yeah, and then they're coming in to fill in that spot. People might ask, why do you have the sponsor a pro-bike team? Just don't do it. Well, it's, it does sell a lot of

because, yeah, if you don't sponsor a team, you would not guess this, but your, the bike

“quality does go down. You can't compete with the other brands. If you look at the brand,”

Maria, that's Spencer. You know, it's been always a huge manufacturer, but, you know,

they were producing for a lot of brands, but their own brand, until I would say six, seven, eight years ago, was not that good of a bike. They're, they're, they're top of the top range. I mean, now, the Maria bikes now are unbelievable. They're really, really, really good bikes. So, you know, that's obviously thanks to the collaboration with the professional team and all the feedback and all the testing they do. They keep improving their products. So, yeah,

Maria, the next year, back with Sudal, quick step, I guess, that's still going to be disponsors. So, yeah. But anyway, the Ramco set for life with specialized. That's nice. I like that. It's good for work. Yeah. And I want one of those deals. We should try to get one of these you on these lifetime deals where you just paid forever. I don't know, I don't know if they're

going to be interested. Spencer, not another me. I always say, you know, I'm going to take the

advantage of saying this year. You know, we, we, we, we always had a deal with track bicycles, you know, postal discovery. Then when I left discovery, I went to a star night, took track to a star now. Then to radio shack, you know, all of the two of the France victories of track

“have been with my teams, nine times. They won the two or nine times. I think if we look at”

track in 1998, it was, I'm not afraid to say it. You know, it was a shitty American bike brand. It was a big brand, but the quality of the bikes were not good. You know, and they were not not the hugeest successful. You know, 99, we, we won the tour. We won it seven times, you know, they doubled their sales every single year. I think since then, I, I would think I should get track bikes for the rest of my life because of what we did do that for them. But unfortunately,

I have to buy them. So, that's not going to happen. Anyway, there are all the brands out there. If they're interested, I'm open for discussion. It is a big deal for these riders. I mean, can you imagine me in Ramco and now you got a deal? Well, listen, we have, we have Ventom, we have Ventom bikes, Spencer, and you know, I'm very happy with my Ventom bike. For what, you know, I ride a lot, but, you know, it's a comfortable bike for me. Ventom is not a bike that is in the

Pro Peloton yet, but I'm super happy with my Ventom's. Yeah, so I, funny story about Ventom. I have, like for my own use for a certain amount of time, I have the cut that colonago, arrow bike, great bike, great road bike, so fast, like so cool or right it. The bike I ride more is I took one of Lances Ventom GS1s, and I find myself riding that. That's like my day to day bike, because you're pretty fast on the road and then just where I live, I do a lot of gravel riding, but that is a

super versatile bike, fun bike. Yeah, it's a very, for me, it's a very comfortable bike. It is very comfortable. Yeah, it's almost like a road. In terms of performance, Spencer, I saw that they just, you know, they had their, we were, we're all off track now a little bit. We're, we're having Ventom, which we should, you know, they're a very loyal partner to it. The Ventom corner. Yeah,

“Brought to you, but Ventom. But they, they have this new time for all my, the Tempest, and I think”

they set the fastest time ever in an, in an Ironman last week. Yeah, I did see that. Crazy. What's his name, Rudy Vomberg, Rudy Vomberg is on a Tempest, and he set the fastest time ever in, in the bike segment, in an Ironman. So, you know, they're up there. Good job, Ventom. Good job. Yeah, I'm sure that's a big segment for them, too. The triathlon market. Well, anything else you have on before. Oh, also, if you live in the United States, this race is on peacock on Sunday,

because it's an ASO race. Okay. Well, we'll speak on Sunday after noon, Spencer. Yeah, we'll be back with with Georgian Capy and maybe Lance Armstrong. We'll see how early we can get him up. I might have to fight. You know, as he said in the last podcast, he's in Hawaii. So he would need to watch it at two AM in the morning miserable. Yeah, I don't, I don't think that's going to happen. Wait, wait, who knows, but he may surprise us. Maybe he will be on. He only

time second in this race. So he knows what he's talking about, which, which he told us he got one

1999 before. But thanks, Johan, and we'll be back on Sunday. Okay, thanks.