Bettor living through Polymarket

All it takes is a low cryptocurrency and a dream, and you can gamble on when the U.S. will

invade Venezuela or the Jets game or who's going to be the next fed chair. The odds change as bets are placed, so we'll rush it and you crane to clear a ceasefire in 2025, probably not. Right now, only 6% of beters say yes, but if Putin and Zelensky grow up this month, those yes bets are going to win a lot of money. Vladimir and Vladimir have the potential to do the funniest thing.

“I mean, they won't, but what if they did you want to bet on it?”

We can. In the last few months, President Trump relaxed restrictions on Polymarket, Google announced a partnership and the New York Stock Exchange said it is investing. Coming up on today's explained, it's Polymarkets World. Support for explaining to me comes from fetch pet insurance.

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Over 500 top publications covering local and national news, food, sports, plus daily puzzles,

audio, and more. Subscribe and just try it free for one month news.appel/learn in terms of play. Today explained. Genvy Echner is a features writer at NYMag who covers finance, crypto, business, and she recently wrote about the founder of Polymarket One Shane Copeland.

So Shane is 26 or maybe 27 now, he dropped out of NYU, he was only there for a semester and he grew up in New York City and then went to NYU and was only there for about a semester maybe less when he dropped out because he was so determined to become an entrepreneur. And he eventually settles on this idea to build what's called a prediction market. And during the pandemic, when everyone in New York City is kind of isolated in a way,

he holds up in his own bathroom on the Lower East Side and starts building this website. People can debate each other and be like, "Oh, you're wrong, this is that." But the way that those that really dissipates is when you let people prep their money or their mouth is. Shane is someone who if you meet him, he's probably going to be the most self-confidence

self-assured person you ever met. In the early days where people are like, "How are you going to compete against these people?"

“And now it's not even a question, so I think we've just out executed candidly.”

He being 100% in his own potential to become a billionaire, which has recently proven true. And he was obsessively writing all of these annotations of people like Mark Zuckerberg and Travis Calenek, these billionaire entrepreneurs, and he had just done, you know, studied them and emulated them and sort of, you know, was just determined to be the next one of that class.

And he's set out with that ambition and he has just kind of stuck to following it ever since. All right, so he has smarts, real smarts, ambition, ego. And he decides that he wants to build something that lets you do what exactly. What was the purpose of Pauli Market from the jump?

He says that, you know, he was obsessed with prediction markets. It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball. Which, you know, kind of sort of, in theory, any way harness the wisdom of the crowd to become this sort of modern Oracle where you can ask people to bet on various outcomes, whether

it's in politics or sports or something else, you can kind of harness, you know, this knowledge and sort of bring, you know, fourth is betting outcomes and then where they can actually win money if they're right.

“And I use it to vote on anything I think is going to happen in the near future, like sports,”

pop culture, politics, and I use it to get some coffee money. So let me click into one to show you that. So there's this whale on Pauli Market who bet over $37,000 that drone pal will start the meeting by saying good afternoon. Good afternoon.

There it is. Give me an example of where smarts play into this. How we see this at a macro scale being like a kind of intelligence.

So I would say it's almost like, you know, kind of, it kind of brings out the common sense of people in the public and the most likely outcome to happen that might allude, you know, some of those kind of smartest pandits because they're just not willing to actually say it out loud.

“It's sort of like what do people really believe will happen?”

And so here's a good example.

Is if you remember the first presidential debate with Biden and everyone immediately leaves

that debate, you know, very concerned about Biden's age, you know, his ability to govern. Out of the gate, President Biden's voice falter. We brought out and there will be 81 year olds spoke quietly and several times seemed to lose his trade of thought. Daily and with everything we have to do is look, if we finally beat Medicare.

You were watching CNN or reading the New York Times. No one was actually thinking that could the current sitting president was about to drop out of the race just a few months before the presidential election. Come on. But if you looked at Pauli Market, it was heavily leaning towards him dropping out right

away, which surprised a lot of people. And that, you know, eventually came true and Pauli Market essentially, you know, kind of had that news a bit earlier, if you take that as news. And that is why Pauli Market takes off. Yes, exactly.

And so that kind of momentum builds and builds heading into the 2024 election. We might as well just call the election now, because using Pauli Market, you can predict what's going to happen.

And it's 63 to 36 percent.

So I downloaded the app, I'm giddy, welcome to the Red Kingdom. If you looked at Pauli Market during election, I know people went into election. I think that it was a fairly close race. Hours before the election was called, even while if you were to watch CNN, you know, or watch other news, the New York Times, the race was far from called.

Pauli Market had Donald Trump at almost 100 percent much before, you know, the results were even in. When you were working on this piece, did you bet it all? You know, I did. And I had to kind of be a little sneaky about it.

I needed to try it out for myself, because I think, you know, it seems really complicated and, you know, talking about it, you do it, you walk through it. It's pretty easy.

“The only thing for me was because I'm in the U.S. and at the time, you know, and even”

today, as we talk, Pauli Market, you know, is not open for most U.S. traders. Not the time it certainly was illegal for me as a U.S. person to be betting on that. And so I had to download a VPN, basically log in as if I were in Spain. And then I, you know, traded like 20 bucks on the website, and I was betting on, you know, silly things like, you know, is Adrian Brody going to win an Oscar.

And the Oscar goes to Adrian Brody. But it was fun, you know, and when you make a bet, there's like a little eruption of confetti on the screen and, you know, and as someone who doesn't have, I think, particular knowledge and sort of any of those things I was betting on, it felt just kind of, you know, very unsurious and, and for fun.

I will wrap up. Please turn the music off. I've done this before. Thank you. But, you know, it's, I think something that people will just enjoy because there is kind

of this fun element to it. And you did not win a ton of money. No, I don't think in the end, I want anything.

“I think, you know, whether it, it's something I was up like a 20 cents or 40 cents or something.”

And then by the, you know, by the time I, well, they ended up shutting my account down because I wasn't trading legally and I told them that I'd traded, um, I was, you know, I'd lost like 50 cents or something like that. Okay. So nothing too tragic.

Talk to me about legality. You danced on the edge of the law. How and why did Pauli market run into legal trouble in this country? Yeah. So, um, you know, after they launched in 2020, it didn't take very long.

Um, you know, for the CFTC, which is the commodities futures trading commission to begin investigating them, which is because, um, you know, companies like CalShe that have been able to offer these types of prediction markets in the U.S., had to go and get a license through the CFTC and are still subject to a lot of limitations. Pauli market didn't do that.

They just went ahead and said, look, we're a decentralized blockchain platform, you know, exchange in his bathroom and the low-reside just went live and just let people trade on it. And the CFTC, you know, said, you know, you can't do that. You can't just, you know, go ahead and, and, uh, and, you know, make something available

without, um, you know, that's not legal on it. I've talked to Shane about it and basically, they just went for it. They said, you know, better to, um, ask forgiveness than permission. People say, bring the law. It's like, which law, you know, so if anything, it's incompatible.

And as a result, they ended up paying $1.4 million to settle with the CFTC.

But part of that agreement, through the agreement, they also had to promise that they

So they could operate from the U.S., but they were only allowed to let people trade, um,

“who did not live in the U.S., which is why we got, you know, to all these VPN work”

around, where you kind of had to pretend that you didn't live in the U.S., if you were trading from the U.S. You know, and so after several years of that, where they had so many people, like, getting around it in this way, the Trump administration came in after winning, saying, you know, like, why is this even illegal? People obviously want this.

There's huge demand for it. They relaxed the restrictions, um, and Polymarket was able to reach an agreement later earlier this year that cleared the way for them to operate again in the U.S. after it became clear that Polymarket was going to be cleared for launching in the U.S., um, you saw the Intercontinental Exchange, though, just the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange,

invest $2 billion into Polymarket, um, which was, you know, widely seen that values

the company, $8 billion, and that's widely seen, um, you know, as a move for pairing for the huge increased demand that's going to come from this U.S. launch.

“And I think you just have a lot of people who, you know, weren't willing to kind of circumvent”

the law to use this, but now if you're saying, oh, it's legal. It's fine. We can do this. There's nothing illicit about it. That's going to bring a huge market of people in the U.S. who want to trade on it, because obviously the U.S., you know, is the biggest financial market in the world. Genvietchner of New York Magazine coming up, betting took over sports, and that made a lot of

people justifiably nervous. Now it is taking over politics. Can you even imagine what happens?

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It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates today explained. My name is John Herman and I'm the tech columnist at New York Magazine.

“If we're okay with betting on horses betting on football games, why does betting on elections?”

Something that became really prominent on polymarket. Why does that ski us out so much? I mean that's a good question. If we think back to the way that sports betting online in particular sort of took over sports media, there was a lot of squeamishness early on and so they had this media outlets being like, "All right, we need to be careful with this gambling thing." This was really going to contaminate

sports, where it's not about sportsmanship and your team winning, it's going to be about the money. Yeah, you'll be able to profit off of their pain and misery. It's the integrity of the game that everyone's worried about. Well, no chance for it. This is sort of like grindy. It makes you think of the track, you know, and settled, and spending all their families money. That took maybe five years to break

and ten years to be completely meaningless. And that's in a situation where we're betting on games. We're betting on sports. We're betting on things that aren't life or death that aren't, you know, the types of things you can bet on now on polymarket or calcium. Like how many people will be deported in the next six months. With politics for decades, it has been a way to sort of judge other people's consumption to say, "Oh, well, you're treating this like a horse race." Or you are

behaving as though you're in a fandom or maybe even, you know, you're being cultish about your politics, or something like that. In the cult of Trump, it's all about MAGA and the storm and fake news,

“the deep state, etc. The vibe behind it all is just, "Ah, politics fandom is toxic." Right? And so I think”

that you have a lot of these people who are actually looking at their politics, like they look at their football team. There's concern about virtue. Because, you know, this is the way that we primarily are supposed to be making the world around us and giving that to betting. It's not the world that I think people would say they want. More obviously, you have just unbelievable opportunities for corruption here. Like if you scroll through calcium today, in politics alone you have...

Will Trump be impeached? Will Trump release any of the abstain files? Who will be the first

to leave the Trump cabinet? Some of these things are genuinely up in the air. Others are things that people in the world know about. These are all just such a target rich environment for someone who is, let's say, corruption curious, that it's hard to believe that it wouldn't go there. Okay, so here's my question, too. And I'm glad you're the one answering it and not me because my head went to some very dark places. If we think about the ways in which betting on, let's say a

presidential election could go sideways. What is a worst case scenario? The presidential election is is a good example for the platforms because it is full of people. It's hard to distort. There's a ton of money. But beyond just the prospect of the bets not being fair, you have a vision in recent

elections of a completely different type of engagement in politics. You have people who have basically

removed themselves from the democratic process to engage instead in a market process. It turns

“everyone into speculator rather than a voter. I think it politics the types of things that we”

worry about affecting elections in negative ways are like, you know, people getting bad information, people following bad impulses, people being too tribal. We like all the types of things that you hear talked over forever and ever in media. A world in which people are just trying to figure out who's going to win makes everyone into, not just a speculator but a pundit. It sort of takes them out of this decision that we'll have a massive effect on how the world works. And it potentially

just like, you know, replaces a lot of the also problematic ways that they interact with elections and politics through media and through social engagement with something that is just

It's just a completely abstract way to engage with politics. And to me, it represents if enough people do it kind of an exit from politics. The dark scenario, here's where my brain went,

tell me if I'm being nuts. Someone as the opportunity to win $10 million if a candidate

is assassinated. There's an enormous incentive to do a very bad thing. That's actually one of the early, like, foundational concepts of prediction markets where people were sort of imagining and in contriving ways where a prediction market might be set up to function explicitly as an assassination market. And it was an interesting thought experiment, like it would work. Now, these actual platforms

“in the world have prohibitions on that. But yeah, I think it's completely plausible in the world”

relive in that someone might manifest events in order to settle a polymarket or a calcium bet in the way that they want. We should probably prepare for a world where much in the way that

sports has become nearly impossible to follow or talk about without talking in this sort of

metaway about odds betting outcomes, et cetera. Politics will start to feel like that. I'd like to ask you about sports because we just did an episode about prop betting. And we talked about how fans are saying that when they learn about these betting scandals again and again and again, they're trust in the sports starts to be road. They start to say, is anybody actually playing baseball these days or is everyone faking baseball these days? I think if people are losing trust

in sports, it seems possible that if we bet on elections, we could be looking within a couple of years

“at people losing faith in the outcome of elections. Is that a viable worry?”

Yeah, I mean, there are a couple really interesting things that you bring up there.

One is that if your candidate, for example, loses an election, you might be crestfallen, you might be scared, you might be worried for the future. But none of those sensations are quite the same as losing a bunch of money on a bet. They're not humiliating in the same way. They don't alienate you from the thing that you're betting on in the same way. That is a new flavor of interaction with politics. I wouldn't say that politics in general, and certainly like American electoral

politics is like a trust rich environment, but losing even more trust in the process is like, I mean, I don't know how much lower you can go, but it seems like we're trying to find a way and someone is maybe making a lot of money on it. Think about the biggest news junkies you know. Now imagine a similarly sized group of people, but it's all about bets. They are frantically trying to settle something in the way that someone's growing a feed endlessly might be

doing already, but they're doing it with skin in the game, they're doing it with, you know, the belief that they might know something other people don't, or that they know something about other people that other people don't. It is that like hyper-focused engagement with politics captured in a business. But wait, but I do, you are actually making me wonder if there is an upside to this, and I will say, John, you did this, you did this to me. So the thing, one of the

problems that we've seen in politics, my entire lifetime, is that people are not engaged. Is there

“an upside here if we're letting people bet on elections that they become more engaged?”

I can, I can sort of see that, but I don't think that gambling in general is the type of thing that is like a gateway to other stuff. I think generally things are gateway to gambling. So I don't want to invest too much in that. But I do want to make sure that we mention a front here that prediction markets as just like an additional source of information in the world are really interesting and I think useful. Like I will make a case for prediction markets as good

aggregators of information. And I think it also allows people to sort of check out where you are on one hand voting and on the other betting. Are these things complementary? Do they synergize or whatever? Or are they kind of add odds with one another? And I think it's very possible to imagine that they could be add odds. Trump world, the people who surround the president, they absolutely love this stuff. Yeah. Don Jr. is advising both Kalshi and Polly Market. I've seen reported.

What role do you think prediction markets are going to play in this administration? And what do you think it means that they're playing a role in this administration? I do think that the Trump administration's relationship to non-public information and trading and markets and just corruption in general is something that I'll say a lot of people are

important information than any other family in the world and you are doing everything you can to

make as much money as possible in a variety of ways. Here is a situation where it's basically

not illegal to bet on something where you know the outcome. Like that's just your advantage.

“And there was a great thing that I believe Matt Living at Bloomberg or maybe one of his colleagues”

at Bloomberg pointed out a little while ago, which is that at the end of an earnings call, Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, jokes that he had been following the prediction markets.

I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase

will say on their next earnings call. At the time, there were bets about what he would or wouldn't say on the earnings call. Would he say Web3? Would he say Bitcoin? And so he gets to the

“end of the call. He says, add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3, to make sure”

we get those in before the end of the call. Like it's a joke. It is like a joke to him. And he's

not just some guy. He runs a huge company. He is in the mix. He is like shaking hands with the

people we were just talking about. It just feels very much like part of the sweet, you know, in ways that are very intuitive, sort of cultural and political, but also just like, wouldn't, I mean, this is a family that has Donald Trump himself. You know, he ran casinos. This is like, why shouldn't there be more types of gambling? Like, this is just, of course, this should be, of course, this should be the future. Of course, we should be involved in it. And of course,

they like us. And of course, the people using it like us. It's all very, like, you know, synergistic. John Herman of New York Magazine. Ariana Asputu produced today's show, Jolie Myers is our editor Patrick Boyd and David Tattishore engineered and Miles Bryan and Kelly Westinger check the facts.

“I'm Newell King. It's today explained. Remember Vox.com/members if you want to join our membership program.”

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Support for the show comes from KPMG. In any organization, disruption is inevitable, but struggling through it doesn't have to be. The KPMG adaptability index is your blueprint for building capabilities to handle what comes next. It uses real data to look at how your culture, strategy, and partnerships all work together to help your business thrive. Stop reacting and start adapting. Visit kpmG.com/us/adaptability to explore the adaptability index and post surveys today.

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