One of us feels that it's kind of cold in here.
Is that, is it within our power to do anything about that? What if we just like light little fire?
“- Yeah, I think we can't fire. - We can't fire.”
- I think we should. - A trash. That'd be even better. Give it a little pungent smell, put it to edge on the program today. (upbeat music)
- Defense Secretary Pete, hegsef testified about the first $25 billion
spent on the war with Iran. - What would you pay to ensure Iran does that get a nuclear bomb? - What would you pay? - How much higher does the price go
as the economic damage keeps climate? - I'm Michelle Martin, that's Steven Schief and this is up first from NPR News. (upbeat music) Jerome Powell says he will stay on the board
of the Federal Reserve for now, even after his stintest chairman ends. - I am confident. - This is a double continue to make his decision based on analysis, but we've had a fight for it.
- By staying on Powell denies President Trump, the chance to name a replacement. Also, the Supreme Court changes the rules, making it harder to create black majority voting districts. The ruling allows Louisiana to redraw its congressional districts.
How many other states might follow? Stay with us.
“We've got the news you need to start your day.”
(upbeat music)
- This year, for the first time in NPR's history,
public media is operating without federal funding. That means NPR needs your support now more than ever. I'm Brittany Loose from its benefit. Please do your part to keep independent, reliable news coverage strong.
And support the podcasts that get you through the day by making a gift for public media giving days. Head over to Donate.nbr.org. - We have an initial price for the war in Iran. The Pentagon estimates the U.S. military has spent
$25 billion so far on ammunition and jet fuel and other expenses. - I've had to kind of official offer that number and testimony before Congress defense secretary Pete Hengseth testified too. - What would you pay to ensure Iran
does that get a nuclear bomb? - Do you? - What would you pay? - I reclaimed my time.
- It's not clear the U.S. has insured Iran will never get a bomb.
$25 billion is an initial cost and does not include the economic damage that we are following this morning. The U.S. and Iran continue blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Mayri is following that standoff.
Greg, good morning. - Hi, Steve. - What's happening in the Strait as up to day? - Well, not a lot. Shipping traffic remains at an almost total standstill.
Both sides say they're inflicting economic pain and they are. And both believe the other side will blink first. Now I spoke with Kevin Donagon. He's a retired Navy Vice Admiral a decade ago. He commanded the fifth fleet which is based in Bahrain.
He says the U.S. could keep this blockade going indefinitely. - It's very sustainable with the forces they have in the region now because they can even peel some of that back and move others into the region and do a rotation. - And Iran also believes it can maintain its blockade
using a combination of mines at sea and drones and missiles from the shore. - Does the U.S. have the capability to clear those mines and defend against those drones? - Well, it does.
And Donagon says an negotiated agreement would be the best safest way to reopen the Strait and those talks are stalled at the moment. Now he says that Navy can clear the mines though it takes time to do this and to further weaken Iran's forces on land.
He's now at the Middle East Institute of Washington so it doesn't have access to the Navy's plans. But based on his experience, he believes the U.S. is relying on unmanned vessels to clear mines. - We're remotely controlled surface ships
and we're remotely controlled. I wouldn't call them submarines. They more look like big torpedoes so to speak. And they can find any mines that are there. So you basically open a two good passageways
through one coming out. - Okay, if you open passageways with the Navy then escort oil tankers? - Well, yes, he says they could do that, but there would still be risks.
And right now it doesn't seem the U.S. either the Navy or the military largest prepared for this and the shipping companies don't seem to have the appetite for that level of risk. Also, this would be a partial solution at best.
You wouldn't see the same level of pre-war shipping traffic, not even close, according to Donagon. He says before the war more than a hundred ships sailed through the straight daily to and from Iran, to and from Arab countries carrying oil,
“natural gas and other key components of the global economy.”
- Okay, hard to get up to that level again. How long has the U.S. been planning for a scenario like it faces now? - Well, a long time, Steve. The U.S. naval presence in the Gulf dates to 1949,
the fifth fleet was formally established in Bahrain in 1995, specifically to protect the flow of oil. - Here's Donagon again. - It's the forefront of everything that we did in fifth fleet, including knowing that if we carried out
Military operations, this would be a car
that the Iranians would play.
“It's completely expected that this is what they would do”
and is built into your planning process. - So Iran's move was no surprise to the U.S. Navy. If there was any surprise, this is the Gulf has remained open despite all the Middle East turmoil over the decade.
- And you guys break myary, thanks so much. - Sure, thanks, Steve. (upbeat music) - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is not walking away from the central bank yet.
- Powell says he plans to remain on the Fed's governing board for some period of time after his term as chairman ends next month. That is unusual and it highlights both the economic and political pressure the Fed has been facing
in recent years. - And you're Scott Horsley has chosen to remain at NPR's business desk for the time being Scott Good Morning. - Good morning, Steve. - What did Powell say exactly?
- Powell had been very guarded up until yesterday about what he would do when his term as chairman expires. Fed shares usually step aside at that point. But Powell has the option to remain
“on the Fed's governing board through early 2028.”
And at his last news conference as chairman, Powell said he's going to exercise that option at least for a while in an effort to safeguard the Fed's ability to operate without political pressure. President Trump has really tried to break down those boundaries.
He's threatened to fire Powell. He tried to fire another Fed governor. The Justice Department even lost a criminal investigation of the Fed. Powell and his colleagues have resisted those efforts
up until now, but Powell says the battle's not over and that's why he's sticking around. - I am confident that the federal continue to make its decision based on analysis and rigorous analysis and not on political considerations.
But we've had a fight for it. - Powell did say he plans to keep a low profile once he's no longer chair. He won't be competing with Kevin Warsh, who appears to be headed for Senate confirmation
to be the next leader of the Central Bank. - Okay, the thing that affects us most directly here is interest rates. The Fed didn't change them on Wednesday. Kevin Warsh has been talking about lowering them,
but what about the other people who vote on this? - Yeah, they're not going to go along right away. I don't think we're in this tricky environment where inflation's getting worse, not better, partly because of the war with Iran,
which is triggered a sharp spike in energy prices. The average price of regular gas jumped another seven cents overnight. So far, those high gas prices don't seem to be forcing most families to cut back spending elsewhere.
Chief Economist, Mark Zandy of Moody's Analytics, his specs, one reason is a lot of people just got their tax refunds and because the GOP tax cuts, those refunds are bigger on average this year than last.
And I do think the tax refunds were really critical.
And particularly in the month of March, that's kind of the peak of the refund checks. That really does help particularly lower no one come households for more cash strapped. That refund goes right into spending.
- But of course, tax refunds come only once a year. So if gas prices stay high, we could see some erosion in families abilities to keep spending on things like restaurant meals and vacations once we get into the spring and summer.
- How's the broader economy doing? You know, we're gonna get a report from the Commerce Department this morning on GDP for January, February, and March. So that's a little dated because the wartime price highs only began the last of those three months.
Overall, the reports expected to show the economy was stronger in the first quarter than it was at the end of last year when we hit the speed bump of the government shutdown. A big part of what's driving the economy right now is spending by wealthy families who feel good
about the booming stock market and home values. - Zandy notes the richest 20% of families in the country account for about 60% of all personal spending. - Wow. - That gives you a real critter sense
about top heavy consumer spending in the economy is. And when things are going on with stock market and record highs on a daily basis, that's gonna provide a lot of juice to spending by that group and it's gonna keep the economy moving forward.
But feels like it would be much more healthy if we saw a broader distribution of spending. - GDP is also getting a boost from all the business investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The housing market is still in a slump though.
So the residential portion of GDP looks pretty weak.
- And Dr. Scott Horstley, thanks as always.
- You're welcome. (upbeat music) - A Supreme Court ruling could alter election maps across this country. - On Wednesday, the Court's Conservative Republic
and Supermajority made it much harder to apply the Voting Rights Act. Voting Rights advocates have long considered the low of the crown jewel of the civil rights movement. - And here's Hansi Lowong, covers voting rights
and is with us, Hansi Lowong. - Good morning, Steve. - Okay, so this is a ruling concerning a specific congressional district, just one in Louisiana.
“But what is the most important thing to think about”
is this is applied elsewhere? - This ruling re-interprets long-standing protections against racial discrimination and redistricting and it's gonna make it much, much harder to challenge voting maps.
- Not just for Congress, but at all levels of government with claims that the maps unfairly weaken
The collective voting power of racial minorities
in places where white majority voters
and minority voters of color tend to prefer different candidates. - Yeah, okay, so the idea of the Voting Rights Act in the 1960s was if black voters had their voting power diluted by Jeremy Mandering,
you could draw new black majority districts to correct that. That was the operation before. What's the rule after the Supreme Court opinion? - Well, the conservative Justice Samuel Lito wrote
the majority opinion for the court and Alito said the focus of Section Two of the Voting Rights Act, which is the section at the heart of this Louisiana case. Alito said the focus of it should be intentional racial discrimination.
“- Intentional racial discrimination, that's the change?”
- Yes, Congress amended the Voting Rights Act decades ago to say that Section Two should focus on any discriminatory effects of a redistricting plan. And you know, one legal expert I talks yesterday was T.V. Ellis at Case Western Reserve University.
And Alito said that proving intentional discrimination this new standard is notoriously difficult. - We in essence are asking plaintiffs now to find a smoking gun. The proof of the racist intent
that is sort of objectively and consciously articulated in order to prove their case. The problem with discrimination cases is that most legislatures in this context no better than to say that.
- So in practice, T.V. Ellis and other legal experts say these Section Two protections
“may now end up being basically impossible to enforce.”
- So you could have a discriminatory effect but still struggle to prove that it was a discriminatory intent. Is there an immediate effect ahead of the midterm elections we have this year? - Well, Republican controlled states,
especially in the South could try to eliminate some democratic represented house districts that the voting rights act was likely protecting. But it is late April and we are past most state candidate filing deadlines for this year's midterm election.
Now, that hasn't stopped Republicans in places like Louisiana, Georgia and Tennessee from urging their states map speed rejoin as soon as possible. I should note there's a request in for the Supreme Court
to speed up certifying its ruling so that Louisiana can try to redistrict.
“But again, the timing makes this tricky to do this year.”
This could be a multi-year rejoin in the end. And whenever this redistricting happens,
part of the bottom line here is that with the further weekend
voting rights act, the United States may be headed towards seeing the largest ever decline in representation by black members of Congress. - This ruling comes just as Florida is the latest state to redraw its or try to redraw its maps.
- Yes, Florida's governor, Ron DeSantis said he expected the ruling from the Supreme Court and the governor's office cited the ruling yesterday to make a case for this new map. But the map wasn't veiled earlier this week
and it doesn't really try to dismantle the district that were likely protected by section two. What's clear is that this new Florida map is trying to give Republicans four more U.S. House seats and it makes Florida the latest state
to jump into this midday gay gerrymandering fight that President Trump started. - Hansi, thanks so much. - You're welcome. - That's Cynthia, it's Hansi, no one.
(upbeat music)
- And that's up first for this Thursday, April 30th.
I'm Steve Inskeve. - And I'm Michelle Martin. - Today's episode of Up First was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rafael Nom. Ben Swazie, Muhammad Elbar DC, and Adriana Guerrero.
It was produced by the at Butch in the Adomas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Highness. Our technical director is Carlos Strange and our deputy executive producers Kelly Dickens.
We hope you'll join us again tomorrow. (upbeat music) (gentle music)
