On the Iranian Border, More Military on the Way, Warm Western Winter

At least two U.S. Marine units are on their way. Their mission is as yet unclear. I'm Scott Simon.

I'm I Sharasko, and this is up first from MPR News.

The war in Iran has disrupted the world's oil supply, a crisis that's growing by the day. Some 3,000 oil tankers, gas tankers, and cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and will end across the state of Wormuz. And a dry winter in the American West points toward a smoky summer. Without a good snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, river basins are low all the way to California.

“To please stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your weekend.”

First up today, the latest on the fighting in Iran. There were heavy air strikes overnight, even as President Trump says that he's considering in his words, winding the operations in Iran down. It appears Emily Fang is on the Turkish border with Iran and joins us now. Emily, thanks for being with us.

It's great to be with you, Scott.

22nd day of this war, tell us what Iranians are meeting there at the border. Have been telling you about what they've been going through. So we met dozens of these people yesterday, and this border is beautiful, Scott. There are snowy mountains, there are blue lakes, but the Iranians we were meeting there, fleeing war had come with terrible stories.

Like this man who we talked to just minutes after he crossed. And like everyone we spoke with, he didn't want to give his name. He's planning to go back to Iran where he's afraid of being arrested for speaking with foreign media. He told us he stands shoulder to shoulder with Israel and the U.S. and attacking Iran's government. But people, including him, have said he's accepted he might die as well from this bombing.

And when he said that to me, he paused, he almost couldn't believe what he was saying out loud, because like so many Iranians we met, he feels really torn. There are people who are against the bombing, and we met some of these Iranians yesterday, but many Iranians tell us that while it is angushing for them to see innocent civilians killed, it is even more angushing for them to live under the current regime.

We have noted that Israel has succeeded in killing several of Iran's most senior officials this week,

“including its security chief. How well of those attacks been its variance of aliens?”

So the problem is there is in your total communications blackout in Iran.

We've been able to speak to some Iranians in and out of the country. They tell us they're experiencing total uncertainty and thus fear about where these strikes are going to fall. Human rights groups have countered a range of civilian deaths on the lower end around 600 civilians killed to over 1300 civilians killed, according to another estimate. That's closer to the more recent deaths told reported by the Iranian request.

But these updates are really sporadic, and so it's challenging Scott to know the full scale of civilian deaths in Iran. And what do Iranians tell you about their day-to-day lives? People and there's might be surprising to listeners, people are still trying to live life as normal. But the country is heavily secretized.

Five Iranians we spoke to this week said they were a ton of new checkpoints run by the besieged paramilitary group in Iran. Israel says it is striking dozens of these new checkpoints.

“But those strikes, their killing security officials, they're also killing civilians.”

Please, Moses and Moshen, should we start? We have to be careful, we have to be careful. So I spoke to this Iranian man. He told us his 26-year-old cousin was among civilians killed. This man himself had just left Iran about a week before for Turkey where I am and he showed

me these oil stains on his jacket, which he said were from fallout when Israel struck Iran oil depots in early March that then sent flaming oil droplets in the air. And he says his cousin who died had risked his life protesting against the government in Iran in January. He himself wants his government to fall, but he acknowledges the cost is so painfully high. And so you see these really painful choices that Iranians are grappling with,

including the question of whether this war is going to be worth the many, many deaths of people they love around them. Ben Pierre is Emily Fang. Thanks so much for being with us. Thanks, Scott.

President Trump and his team say the war in Iran is going very well. In fact, they often say the military campaign is ahead of schedule. But the U.S. hasn't reached the many goals they've declared and there is no sign when the war might end. We're joined by Imperial National Security Correspondent Greg Myary Greg.

Thanks for being with us. Hi, Scott. Today marks three weeks since the war began. We're gonna think stand on the battlefield. So big picture, the U.S. and Israel dominate the skies over Iran, the really bombing it will.

And this is all according to the Pentagon. Now, the Pentagon also announced the U.S. is using Apache helicopters in 810 Warthog planes to carry out attacks. Now, this is interesting on a couple points.

First, these are slow-moving, low-flying aircraft that often loiter over a battle site.

They're very lethal, but they're vulnerable to being hit. So this move suggests that the U.S. believes the threat from the Iranian forces on the ground has been reduced to the point where these aircraft can be brought into the fight.

“And then I think the second point is the Pentagon said they're doing things.”

These planes are doing things like targeting the small fast boats that Iran uses in the Gulf. So we're seeing this greater emphasis on the Gulf and on the smaller, more elusive Iranian weapons we should really expect this to continue. And Greg, we've seen reports that the U.S. might and what emphasized might be moving closer to using ground troops in some kind of operation.

What do we know? Yeah, well, President Trump addressed these reports and he said, quote, "No, I'm not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you, but I'm not putting troops anywhere." So this sounds like a no with an option to change his mind.

Now, MPR has confirmed with U.S. officials that two marine expeditionary units are making their way to the region. We don't know what their mission is, but it's certainly generating a lot of speculation.

“And, of course, one possibility would be an operation intended to open the Strait of Hormuz.”

Of course, that's the critical choke point for oil in the Gulf that Iran has effectively

shut down. And which is caused in oil crisis, it seems to be growing by the day, what might it take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Yeah, it's not going to be easy. This was a problem that didn't exist when the war began and Trump hasn't laid out a clear

plan to fix it. Iran has lost most of its conventional military power, but it's still very well positioned to carry out attacks from the rugged coastline with drones or with these fast boats in the Gulf, and particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles wide, the Gulf has really become a giant parking lot for ships.

There's some 3,000 oil tankers, gas tankers, cargo ships, all stranded according to the U.S.

shipping agency, the ships are unwilling to challenge the Iranians, and the U.S. Navy only has around 20 ships in the region. And of course, President Trump was rebuffed when he called another nation to help. Then he said that he was "didn't need any help," which is the latest. Yeah, Scott, there's been a lot of back and forth.

And now I have to design European and Asian nations of issued a joint statement saying they'll contribute to appropriate efforts to open the Gulf, but that's pretty vague and no one is pledging anything tangible like a warship. I spoke about the Gulf with Daniel Jurgen, he's a long time expert on the oil industry, who's now at S&P Global.

This is by far the biggest disruption of world oil that's ever occurred. It's really hit Asia, because essentially, from an economic terms, the Strait of Hormuz points east, 80% of the oil goes to Asia, 90% of the natural gas, and for countries like Japan and South Korea, and even China, as well as India, this is a very big slam to their economies. So, the Asian countries could be looking at oil shortages.

Now, that shouldn't happen here in the U.S. because this country is the world's largest oil producer, but oil is a global commodity, so the price is rise for everyone. And of course, Greg, Iran has lost many top leaders.

“Is the government and the military still functioning?”

Well, the short answer is yes, we heard this week from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, she testified before both the Senate and the House. And she said the Iranian government has been badly degraded, but it's still intact. She said the country's new Supreme Leader, Mojtabah Haman-A, was badly injured in the strike that killed his father, the previous Supreme Leader.

Israel says it's killed dozens of political and military leaders and keeps announcing more almost daily, but Iran's government is very much a system with lots of layers and power centers. It's not based on an individual. So, it seems the government is still functioning, and the military is definitely carrying out attacks. And, Pierre's Greg Myri, thanks so much.

Sure, thanks, God. It's now officially spring. The varnal equinox was yesterday, and for people in the American West, it marked the end of a winter that wasn't. Stayed from Colorado to Oregon, report their driest and warmest winter on record,

and that has potentially dire consequences for the region's water reserves.

Thanks for being with us. Good morning, glad to be here. So, just how hot was this winter in the West? Well, it was really the winter that wasn't for skiers. We call it low tide. There's barely any snow, and when we did get storms, they tended to be really warm, so rain at very high altitude. It's not good for skiing, I issue, but more to the point of

why you guys called me up. It's horrible for the snowpack and storing water in this region.

“And snow is the main water supply in the West, right?”

Exactly. You know, we rely on a healthy snowpack to slowly melt into our huge reservoirs where it's stored to get us through the dry summers. And up until this weekend, the West has also been dealing with a heat dome, and some have recorded their earliest ever triple digit temperatures. In the mountains, that's causing rapid snow melt. So, Kirk, is there even that much snow left to melt

at this point after such a dry winter? It's a good question. I mean, you look at photos of the mountains around Lake Tahoe right now, and it's kind of like, back to where they were right around Christmas, brown hillsides. Here in Boise, I'm looking at the mountains behind the studio here, and they don't look much better. The local scary, a bogus basin is closing same with snow basin in Utah and Sierra Tahoe.

“I mean, this is weeks early, and the news isn't much better when you look at rivers.”

According to the U.S. drought monitor, every single river basin in the West has experienced

its warmest or second warmest winter on record. Now, some of coastal California was a bit

of a bright spot. They did get a lot of rain this winter, which I asked Brent Pasquab about. He's a calfire battalion chief, and he pointed out that the irony is that with all that rain, it gets lush and green, and it turns to brittle in prolonged heat. We are definitely experiencing a heat wave, which we're used to. We're just not used to it this early in the year. The forecast all the way till June shows very little moisture, so that's concerning.

Is there any hope that things could turn around, or is it too late, and we're likely headed toward a smoky summer? I mean, maybe, but like, I issue like everything in the world right now, everything feels unpredictable. I mean, climate scientists have started blaming this past warm winter out here on the rapidly melting Arctic, which is causing the jet stream to swing away from us, and then there's this huge blob of warm water out in the Pacific that's sending us these

warm storms, at least when we get them. Now, there are some exceptions, of course, in the West, but everyone is really worried about the Colorado River Basin. The Federal Bureau of Reclamation is now predicting that the water levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead along the river may drop so low that the turbines that the dams are going to stop even being able to produce power like later this year. It's called Deadpool. It's a very grim term, but apt. Oh my goodness.

So, I mean, all of this has extraordinary environmental consequences, but that sounds like it's also going to have some big economic consequences. Totally. I mean, the Colorado River alone

was surprised drinking water to like 40 million people, also countless farms that grow all the

produce we eat, especially in the winter and the Imperial Valley of California. And up here where I am in the Pacific Northwest, we get a lot of our power from Hydro and so low river flows

“are very concerning along the Columbia River. But I think the possibility of a smoky summer is”

pretty tops on everyone's minds. I was on a reporting trip up in Montana this past week, and I met Andy Leadberg, who owns a brewery next to the big sky ski resort. It's been a tough winter for the ski industry and Leadberg told me they're facing some tough economic headwinds now going into spring. Like low rivers mean not much white water rafting or fishing and the likelihood of a lot of wildfire smoke. If you look at everything even gas prices this summer, you know, gas prices don't

come down. People aren't driving around, you know, and it's like we need like that traffic of like people coming in or out of West Yellowstone or just coming here for vacation. And if it's too expensive, then there's less travel. So, I should, the winter that wasn't as we're all calling it out here is now causing a lot of concerns for what's coming ahead in spring and summer. That's MPR's Kirk Siggler and Boisey. Thank you so much for joining us. You're welcome.

And that's up first for Saturday, March 21st, 2026. I'm Scott Simon. And I'm Aisha Roscoe,

Elena Torc, produced today's podcast with Health from My Girl Radcliffe and Dave Mistage. Ed McNulty was our editor today with Fernando Naro and a black Andrew Sussman and Eric Whitney. Here in the studio is our director Andy Craig and our technical director, David Greenberg, and he had engineering support from Chase's. I'm in Janssen and Zovenganhove. Shannon Rose is our senior supervising editor. Our executive producer is E.B. Stone.

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