[MUSIC]
President Trump paused the U.S. operation to reopen Sir Paul Moose just two days after it started. He cited quote "great progress" towards a deal with Iran and his secretary of states has combat operations are over. Are they?
>> I mean, Martinez, that's late of fall.
And this is a first from MPR news.
[MUSIC] In Indiana, several Republican state senators who defied President Trump on redistricting loss, they're primary. So one of the results say about Trump's whole other Republican party. >> And a new poll shows Democrats with a significant edge to gain control
of Congress six months ahead of the midterm elections. The economy has been the key issue and with gas prices up, how much trouble are Republicans in?
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the podcast that brings the latest headlines in five minutes with new episodes posted at the top of every hour. Clear, fact-based, and ready when you are, listen to NPR news now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. >> Two days after the Trump administration touted a new plan to get ships out of
the street of harm moves and protect them from Iranian attacks, that effort is over for now. >> President Trump posted Tuesday night that the operation was paused because of the quote, "great progress toward a final agreement with Iran." The reversal came the same day that Secretary-State Mark Rubio said combat operations
in Iran were over. >> And P.R. is White House correspondent Franco Ordonia joins us now to talk about this good morning. >> Good morning, Lill. >> You know, Franco, we've heard the President say the war is over, nearly over,
will be over in two weeks, several times now. Is it actually over this time? >> Yeah, I mean, we really don't know. I mean, Rubio says the focus now is on negotiations and that the U.S. is only going to be involved in defensive operations.
>> And what that means is very simple.
There's no shooting unless we're shot at first, okay?
We're not attacking them.
“We're not, but if they are attacking us, so they're attacking a ship, you need to respond”
to that. >> But to your point, I mean, we also heard earlier in the day Trump expressing frustration that Iran's leaders had yet to capitulate after two months of U.S. military and economic pressure. She would waive the white flag, the white flag of surrender and hockey they say, uncle, right?
>> You know, it just shows how things just are changing all the time. >> Yeah, last night, Trump also touted what he called progress towards an agreement with Iran. Has there actually been progress? >> Yeah, it's interesting because Trump's words were very different than some of
the messaging being delivered by Rubio, who told us yesterday that the two sides were still trying to figure out what the specific issues each side were willing to negotiate about. >> That's the object of this diplomacy is to come up with some level of understanding about what are the topics that they've agreed to negotiate on. We don't have to have the actual agreement written out on one day, this is highly complex
and highly technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear about the topics that they're willing to negotiate on and the extent the concessions are willing to make at the front end in order to make those talks worthwhile. >> I mean, Leila, that makes it sound like they're early in the process, which again
is very different than the great progress that Trump is portraying. >> Yeah, I mean, in the biggest issue, right, is still the straight of her moves, more than 100 ships a day used to travel through that waterway before the war. And it's only since the US and Israel started this war that Iran took control of the straight.
“So if combat operations are over, as we heard from Rubio, what happens with the straight?”
>> Yeah, I mean, that was Rubio's big push. And he said, under no circumstances can the US allow Iran to normalize the idea that they can control the waterway, but he also stopped short of saying, what action would take place? >> Now, the Secretary of State briefed the press on this latest development.
Is that unusual? >> Well, I mean, the administration really came across the board yesterday with a step-up message about the war, Defense Secretary Pete Hegsev, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kane brief reporters, Trump also took questions and it just comes at such a big moment in
The conflict as Americans continue to feel kind of the economic pinch of all ...
And Rubio said that Iran needed to make a sensible choice that leads them to reconstruction
and prosperity.
“>> The alternative is growing isolation, economic collapse, and ultimately total defeat.”
I know what the right choice is for Iran. I hope that the people over there making decisions will make the right one. >> Yeah, I mean, the message boils down to a mix of de-escalation, combined with this kind of tough talk, and it can be confusing at times. That's White House correspondent, Franco, or Donia.
Thank you, Franco. >> Thank you, lady. [MUSIC] >> President Trump largely succeeded in his effort to punish Indian lawmakers who did not go along with a redistricting plan last year.
>> Trump targeted seven incumbent state senators backing challengers against them most of the incumbents lost. >> MPR Stephen Fowler is here to share what these results can tell us about the upcoming midterm. So Stephen, let's start off with Indiana.
>> Well, five of these challengers decisively won. There was one incumbent who prevailed, and another race is still too close to call, currently separated by three votes.
More than $7 million were spent on just TV ads to convince a few thousand people to pick
a handful of different lawmakers who basically have the same views as the existing office holders. Except the one time they differed from Trump. It's just another example of how, for Trump's base, he's the alpha and omega, and nothing changes their view of him.
However, at a time where polling shows the base is shrinking, and there's little support for Trump and his policies outside of that group, and when other Republicans on the ballot could use his help, it is notable, a, that this is how Trump is spending his time and energy in resources in an otherwise unfavorable midterm environment. >> All right, so Ohio also helped primary, so Tuesday, you've been reporting for a year
“and a half on Democrats doing better than expected, did that happen in Ohio?”
>> Absolutely. Even though there wasn't really a competitive primary for either party for the statewide governor and Senate races, according to election data, there were more Democrats than Republicans that voted early, and in a number of key house districts, you had more Democrats show up too.
And primary elections can act as a sort of temperature check for how voters are feeling, Mike McCarty of Mommy, Ohio told NPR he was looking for change. >> I would like to see a Democratic majority in Congress, especially because I think what Trump is doing and what his administration is doing is not good for America. >> Democrats feel like they have a good shot at flipping the Ohio governor's race and the
Senate race, and what will be some of the most competitive and expensive races in the country in November, and as they try to hold on to two house seats that were redrawn to beat more conservative leaning. >> All right, Steven, you know this, we're six months out from the general election. I mean, what else should we take away as we look to the primaries in the weeks and months
ahead? >> Well, the Indian state Senate aside, it is very hard to unseat an incumbent and for U.S. House members on the ballot, that remain true. However, in Indiana, you saw nearly every incumbent who did have primary challengers get under 70% of the vote. There was one incumbent who raised 100 times more than his opponent and narrowly survived.
There was another who had a close race against someone who never filed any campaign fundraising
reports. So you could say that voters are signaling a desire for something and someone else. I also want to reiterate that in pretty much every state that's had a primary so far, you know, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Illinois, you've seen a surge of democratic turnout and Republicans have been more, which if those feelings continue through November, it's
going to make the country's politics look very, very different next year and for the final two years of Trump's term. >> That's MPR political reporter, Steven Faller, Steven Thanks. >> Thank you. The latest NPR PBS news, Marist Poll, helps us understand why we've seen consistent over-performance for Democrats this primary season even in red states.
NPR senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montenaro, has been sifting through the results and joins me now, hi, Domenico. >> Hey, Leila.
“>> So what are we learning about the midterm specifically?”
>> Well, right now, six months from election day, Democrats do have a pretty significant advantage according to the poll, when people were asked if congressional elections were held today, who would they vote for? They chose Democrats by 10 points. That's a pretty big edge if you look at past election performances and Democrats also have
the edge on a really key factor here in enthusiasm. Their eight points more likely than Republicans to say they're, quote, very enthusiastic to vote
This November and when it comes to how people voted in 2024, 61% of people wh...
Democrat Kamala Harris, say that they're quote very enthusiastic, but just 47% of those who voted
for Trump say they are. >> Okay, so it sounds like Democrats have a pretty sizable advantage here. Could that mean a wave election? >> In previous years, the party with these kinds of numbers would have been thinking about a pretty big wave.
But waves nowadays are a lot lower than in the past because they're just way fewer competitive districts.
“And while Democrats do have the advantage and some key groups who vote with them are fired”
up, especially white voters with college degrees, other Democratic pillar groups, though,
are not as much young voters, black voters, Latinos, for example.
They're all among the lowest groups in saying that they are very enthusiastic to vote. And we know midterms are much lower turnout affairs than presidential elections on average. We see about a 30% drop off. So right now, Democrats certainly the favorites to take back the house, but they have a lot of work to do to assure all that up.
Now we often talk about the fact that Trump's space is particularly loyal through many ups and downs. Do we expect that to hold once again? >> We saw an example of Trump's control over the MAGA-based last night in his targeting of Republican state senators in Indiana who defied him on redistricting.
Most of them lost. It's one reason why so many Republican elected officials don't cross him. But general elections aren't primaries, and Trump has been really toxic with swing voters. His overall approval rating is the worst that's ever been in our poll, just 37% approve while 59% disapprove.
That can be a real albatross for Republican candidates across the country, especially when
“key groups appear to be softening or turning away from Trump.”
Take for example, people who make less than $50,000 a year. White men and women without college degrees. World voters. Shortly after Trump was sworn into office, they all had a positive job approval rating of him now that's flipped and more in each group disapproves of the job that he's doing.
Key crossover groups like Latinos and young voters have all moved heavily away from him. And Republicans have the added problem of struggling to turn out Trump's base when he's not on the ballot. >> Now, that sounds like a lot stacking up against Republicans right now. The economy has been the key issue for many Americans.
Gas prices are up because of the war in Iran.
“Is that what's prompting this low point for the president?”
Well, they think about it, gas prices seem to be the catalyst for Trump's economic numbers nose diving even farther than where they've been. Eight and ten, say gas prices are straining their household budgets. 63% blame Trump for that increase. 63% also say the economy is not working well for them.
Trump's approval on the economy as a result is just 35%. You know, it's really remarkable.
He's been lower on the economy in this term than he ever was the first time around.
>> And that is most unpopular. >> That's NPR's Senior Political Editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro, Domenico, thank you. >> Thank you, guys. >> And that's our first for Wednesday, May 6th.
I'm Le La Faldin. >> And I'm a Martinez. Today's episode of a first was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Megan Pratz, Dana Farington, Mohammed Elbar DC and RZU, Rosbani. It was produced by Zia Buch and Nia Dumas.
Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes, our technical director is called Exchange and our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin, join us again tomorrow.
