All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

1d ago1:07:5712,385 words
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(0:00) Chamath explains the Best Ideas format (2:31) Suvretta Capital Management's Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts (13:07) Bornite Capital's Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy (27:19) EcoR1 Capital's Ol...

Transcript

EN

Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters an...

I mean, for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira's own,

this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young,

and his family created this thing called the "Sone Foundation", and they would host this event, and it started in Lincoln Center, and they would ask these managers, and so at the time I was like a young venture investor, and I got this invite, and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015, and I said, "Amazon's going to be a trillion dollar company,

and I was laughed out of the room." David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who was totally wrong, said, "I know trillion dollar companies, this is not a trillion dollar company, wrong." It turned out to be a great bet.

I went back, I did Tesla, and 2016, we picked the converts, and then in 2017 I was like, "Alright, this is my, this is it. This is my magnum opus, and I said, "A.I. is the future, and then I picked box." (laughs)

If I had just picked in video, I would have been a legend. Legend, and I could have retired. Anyway, so we wanted to recreate Ira's own, and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs.

They don't get the distribution, and so it's just the chance

to get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on CNBC, you'll see them here more and more often, and we can just get to open. Roll the video. Ladies and gentlemen,

welcome to the best ideas pitch. Let's meet our contestants. Anyone should be able to trade any asset, anywhere in the world any time 24/7, with just an internet connection at the phone in their pocket.

We're building a new financial system from the ground up here. People are going to want to own equities, and it's going to be fun in the next couple of years. Companies are going to innovate in great products and applications, and that's where hopefully the long short managers

I thus can make a boatload of money. My fun to equal R1 capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way. We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood to biotech companies.

It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies.

There has been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way. Massively optimistic. You know, all of this leads me to just the maximum risk on. (upbeat music)

Thanks to the besties for having me, and this is obviously a fabulous event. You guys have put on, I'm happy to be here. For those of you who don't know me,

I run a $4 billion firm in New York called Serena Capital.

Before it's finally my firm, I ran the equity business for George Soros. I was at the CIO for Steve Cohen, and I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years. So definitely on the older edge of my peer group.

So I'm thinking about, I run a generalist fund, and we own a bunch of text docs, but given this audience here for me to pitch a text doc, would be absolutely completely stupid. So I was thinking about what else,

and obviously the theme of this conference besides tech is poker. So I'm going to pitch to you, MGM. Now, most of you know MGM, as you think about it, is the Vegas company. They own 13 properties in Vegas.

They're one of them in Caesars, or the two largest owners of casino assets in Vegas. Now, if you notice the other day, Caesars got taken out. And so we think Vegas is actually starting to improve.

But I'm not here to pitch MGM because of Vegas. What I'm going to tell you is there's a couple of things we noticed. One is, this company has been very aggressively, and stocks have been aggressively acquired by Barry Diller lately. Barry now owns 26% of the company.

Now, I put this presentation together two weeks ago. Yesterday, he actually bid for the company. So when I put the presentation together, the stock was about $37. It's now high 40s.

He bid $48. I would not sell my shares to him. When did we get this presentation? Did we get it early enough to transfer?

I would not sell my stock to him for a second.

And the reason is also, besides him buying the stock, the company's also been buying the stock. Rarely have I ever seen a company in six years by half their flow back. So you have Barry Diller, who's the legend,

aggressively buying the stock, and it's also now 80% of his NAV. So most people think Barry Diller as the ABC producer. He did I see which owned assets like Expedia. And now he's a casino guy. What is going on here?

So we spent a lot of time asking ourselves why.

Why is MGM has two hidden assets.

Okay?

The first one is, and this is sort of our punch line,

of what we think the stock is worth. So you add the Vegas assets plus China. You get about low $60. So from $48 or $37 when I started this, great return.

What is they, what they have now is a license to open a casino in a soccer Japan. Japan, a couple years ago went through a whole referendum around the country. They have pre-frictures, the pre-frictures voted.

The only one that decided to open a casino is Osaka. Now Osaka is, and this is what the asset's going to look like. It's going to open in 2030. If you go to the company's slide presentations, they sort of mention this, but they're not really talking about it.

Japan, just for you, people, I don't know, it's very slow. Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market. They have the chinkle parlors, and they have horses.

That's about a $40 billion market.

If you look at the market in the cow, that's $30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion. So this could be a massive opportunity. Whereas to me, they'll do about $2 billion. If you even thought they own 40% of the property,

they also get a management fee for this. If you also look at where Osaka is located, it's a great, so the Japanese like the gamble, but the Chinese really gamble. So if you look at where it is from Shanghai, it's shorter than the cow, which is the two big gaming options in Asia, and from Beijing,

about the same distance as Macau, and obviously much shorter than go into Singapore.

So if you want to go gambling for a weekend, and you live in Shanghai,

I live in Beijing, Osaka is great. It's also a first-world nation. And if you think about it as an investor, where do you want to have your money? Look, Macau has issues. It's a low-multimal business.

This is Japan, it's a first-world country.

So, we think Barry Diller is understands gambling, he understands casinos, but what he's really doing, is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity, which we think is worth more than double the stock. The final option, I'm keeping this simple.

I love about this pitch, it's really simple. It's not that hard to do the math. MGM is they're building a property into buy. Now, it's a grand complex, it has an area, it has an MGM, and it has a ballagio.

Gambling is illegal in Dubai right now. But they have snuck in this building, 300,000 square feet of space. Well, one day, if Dubai decides to legalize gambling, guess where it's going, right there.

Next year, two years from now, when is going to open a casino in a place called Armarshan, which is 45 minutes away from Dubai. Now, any of us who want to go gambling in Dubai, we, Armarshan, it's a bit of a pain that has to get to.

We're going to want to go here. So, we think there's a chance that, especially when win opens, also look, there's a possibility the war, you know, Dubai wants to re-establish themselves that they open a casino in Dubai.

And, you know, what that would be worth. So, when you take the biggest assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another 40 or 50 dollars.

So, we think this stock is a triple. Remember, Barry's bidding for the company, okay? He is not a strategic buyer, he is a financial buyer, and he's doing it to get rich.

So, therefore, I think this company is now in play.

I don't know how it's all going to play out, but if you own shares, don't tend to them,

and the risk rewards are incredible right now.

Because, you know, I'm telling you, I think the stock could be easily worth over 100, could be worth 150. And now you have Barry Diller, who is a, has a firm bid owns 26% of the company,

basically get the same price. So, I think this is a cool idea. Well done. Okay. Anybody, let's do two questions. And yeah, we'll put, I'll give you both questions at the same time.

Perfectioncy. How much have you looked at the monetization of the assets outside of gambling? I had heard from someone that Barry Diller was spending a lot of time trying to reinvent the entertainment piece of the properties. He was active on the board,

and they were trying to identify that the entertainment properties, the entertainment values weigh under monetized, and they could be making a lot more per, okay. Don't answer yet. That's question one.

Then question two is how, when you expand internationally,

do you scale customer credit?

Because that tends to be the thing that drives,

you know, people to come back.

Well, obviously, this is our viewer question first.

Amjee has a massive database of customers, right? So, you know, I assume the Vegas properties have, guys that come from China, they come from Japan. They'll use that database to do it. They also have a loyalty program.

I unfortunately made a bad investment in a company called Rio, which was in Vegas, which we bought when they separate, when Caesar's merged with El Dorado, they had a shed and asset.

That was the Rio. I did an investment with a couple of friends, and we buying the thing at $200 per square foot. The thing we forgot was when you separated from Caesar's, you lost a loyalty program.

And I had two quick questions from the audience. What are you doing? Anyway, guys, very nice question. Oh, that question. And then funny audience.

Let me get his first. Yeah, okay. The entertainment question. I don't know the answer. I don't know the answer to that.

If it's, if he can make them better, it will help. But as I'm saying, this is not really a Vegas way. This is an Asian casino play that, if you look at the presentations, which are really cool,

they are not, they barely mention it. So one of the things we happened beside, we were hoping in one of the cats. So look, they worked at SAC, and one of the things we focused on is Catalyst Path.

So what was the Catalyst Path? The Catalyst Path was, they would have an investor day, blah, blah, blah. Barry just showed his cards. So, um, but you know.

There are two questions. Caesar's left to buy waiting for a license. Why would this be different from GM? That's question one. And then question two is, the Osaka casino was approved in 2023.

Why was the market ignoring this hidden asset until the bit?

Sure, let me answer the second. So what's also cool about this idea was, so I've been doing this for 29 years. When, um, they opened the account. So when started as a Vegas property,

then opened the account. The market started caring about it about three years before it opened.

Um, so that the answer is, they should care about it.

The reality is it tends to be about three years before it opens. Well, we're almost in that timeframe, which is why we think it's opportunistically the right period of time. Um, I, you know, regarding the question with Caesar's, look, this is an option.

As I told you, somebody built this project for them. They are running it for them. And they were intelligent enough to leave 300,000 square feet of empty space. In case they got a casino. Well, if that happens, great.

If it doesn't, you know, you're still going to double it more than double your money. So, you know, if it happens to triple your money. We option, you're saying. All right. We option.

Well done. That round of applause. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Nice to meet you.

Nice to meet you. Long time no see. So today we're just a talent energy.

But first, the anatomy of a power cycle.

So a power cycle typically goes like this. In normal times, power demand grows about GDP. So GDP grows 2% power demand grows 2% of GDP grows 3. Power demand goes 3. And there's moments in time where we get technological breakthroughs.

And a lot of those technological breakthroughs are very power intensive. So power demands spikes. And once everybody adopts that technology, it trends back down to its on algorithm GDP growth. And then you go through the efficiencies phase where we say, let's try to conserve and figure out ways to consume less power.

And then the cycle starts all over again. So, you know, in history, the big technological boom that sent power demands skyrocketing was appliances and air conditioning. Everybody had to get their kennels and the aircon. Then in the '70s and '80s and '90s demand normalized again.

But then the 2000s were all about efficiencies. You know, we had like LED lighting, smart H fact, hinted windows, smart electronics. And at the same time as I said earlier, we were like, you know, ripping down all our power hungry infrastructure, like aluminum smelters and moving over China. So we had two decades of effectively no power demand.

And now we're just coming out of it and starting a technological cycle again. Where power demand is going to really start to explode from these sort of high 2% numbers you're seeing on the screen.

Now I want to say something right now that is incredibly important.

We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.

AI demand just turbocharges.

That's all it does.

And it creates shortages.

So just remember that.

Early in my career, I was on a panel with Sam Zell. Interestingly, it was a panel on opportunities in Mongolia.

I was looking at a copper mine and he was looking at real estate. There's one thing he said that stuck with me for the rest of my career is he said, if you can buy an asset, a hard asset, at below replacement cost for an asset that's going to be needed in the future, where we're going to need to build new capacity of that asset, then you buy that asset at the discount to replacement cost, you hold it,

and you sell it at a big premium to replacement cost within the market wakes up. That's exactly what we did with equity office properties, sold it at the peak of the market,

but bought it at a discount to replacement value.

Talent energy is a power producer. They have two gigawatts of nuclear power and they've got six gigawatts of natural gas base load power.

Today, in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value.

The replacement cost is $45 billion, and because they've got debt, it means that the equity value, just to get to replacement cost, is more than a double from where it's trading today. And if you follow Sam's playbook, then we ultimately end this cycle at a big premium to replacement value. So when I see this, I say the plan for America on the power side has to be this. Make America great again, copy China.

As we look at China did, for the last 20 years, we started out this cycle with having two x the power generation that China had. Fast forward today, China has three times the power generation capacity that we have. Now, if you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be responsible for scientific breakthroughs, either have it or you don't have this scientific breakthroughs. You believe that artificial intelligence is going to drive robotics. You either have it or you don't have that productivity from the robots.

If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be helpful for national security and military affairs, then you either have it or your dead.

And so this is an absolutely mandatory buildout that we have to do, otherwise we're going to fall behind because at the end of the day, what is the data center?

You know, in my world, in the commodities world, I look at the data center as the exact same thing as a refinery. In a traditional hydrocarbon refinery, you put oil in crude oil in, you refine it into jet fuel or gasoline for your car. With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, it comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it.

But it's the same thing. Big capital intensive asset, $50 billion per gigawatt, and power, just like electricity, just like oil, is the input to that refinery.

So here's Jensen, and he was just recently quoted that we need a thousand times more power than we currently have. Now, if that's remotely true, we need every single source of power that you can imagine. We need hundreds of gigawatts of nuclear, we need solar, we need orbital, we need it all. If this is even remotely true, but the challenge as we spoke about before is the supply chain, right? All of these, you know, a data center competes for the same supply chain of the critical minerals that space launches and orbital data centers do.

The power plants need all the same nickel superalloys that it takes to launch rockets, and the silver that goes into these photovoltaic cells, and so there's going to be shortages of everything and delays everywhere. And my point here is we are just going to need every solution that we can throw at this for the foreseeable future. This is a little region in the US called the PGM, Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland. This is forecast from the grid operator, where they say that over the next 10 years we're going to need 106 gigawatts of new power in the PGM and just one little area of the US.

Now, in 10 years in geological time, that's like tomorrow morning, right? We're all so used to internet time, you press a button and you get your food delivered to you or your car picks you up in two seconds. You know, building infrastructure happens in geological time, 10 years to build out 106 gigawatts is literally a nanosecond from now. And, you know, you see that thermal coal retirements, we ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gigawatts in 10 years.

That's a size of what Japan consumes today for one little part of the US. And, you know, what I'll say is those that understand the supply chain and what goes into building all this, everybody's in panic mode because we know that we don't have the raw materials to meet this level of demand that's coming our way.

That's going to keep existing capacity and power prices very tight.

Now, the data center and the hyper scalers are in a panic. They're trying everything they can to source as much power as they can under long-term PPA's power purchase price agreements.

It fixed prices for 20 years. There's a famous example, you know, I thought Microsoft was a green company. But they went and convinced constellation energy, which is a company that owns a three mile island nuclear reactor. You know, the one that melts it down and created, you know, the nuclear meltdown that gave nuclear a bad name for 30 years. It was Microsoft that told them they needed to start it up and in order to incentivize to stimulate their hand to wallet reflex to start this thing up. They said, power prices stay are $50 a megawatt hour. We'll pay you 100 a year for 20 years minimum price for you guys to start this up.

And so here we have it, a three mile island brought to you by Microsoft Azure. So, you know, it's getting harder to do these deals because the regulators are saying, "Wait a minute, if you're taking all this power off the grid for your data center, how are we going to heat the homes of our customers?" And so, you know, it we're getting ourselves into the moment of what I call crunch time. So, just to finish up, here are the numbers on talent. The stock today is sort of in the high 300s. If they just do absolutely nothing, just absolutely nothing.

Just sit there and run the business, let their Amazon data center contract roll up. These guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year. Again, the stock is in the high 300s. That's about seven times free cash flow. Good infrastructure assets in the US traded about 15 times. So, that's pretty good. You get a double for basically management just sitting around and doing nothing.

But if they continue to figure out ways to sign contracts with data centers at premium prices,

or if power prices go up, I mean the amazing thing right now is in the PGM where these guys operate.

The power price is still too low to stimulate new capacity. The math still doesn't work, which is really mind-boggling. So, if power prices go up a bit, they do more deals. You get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow, put a $50 multiple on that. That's a $1,000-50. But then, if they get into building power plants, and right now the regulator is telling these companies to go

to sit in a room, power producer, data center, come in a room, make a deal, so that you build power, and get a good return on it, and the data center gets their power, gets a good return on it. And talent is in a pole position to be able to do this. If they just build like four gigawatts, so the hundred gigawatts that we need, you could get up to, you know, over a hundred dollars a share of free cash flow, the stocks in the high 300s today.

So, going by the shares, it's a good speculation, and we can chat.

All right, not financial advice. Gavin, go.

Gavin, go.

Just very curious, like, how do you think about regulatory risks here?

Nobody likes their electricity prices going up. AI is an increasingly political issue, just like how do you think about that risk? We need AI, and we need to figure this out. And so, there's different ways to skin a cat here, right? My personal view is during peak hours, right?

If you go drive down a highway at four in the morning, you know, you would sit there and say, why do we have all this highway capacity? This is crazy. But then you go on that same highway at rush hour. You're like, oh, we don't have enough highway capacity.

There's not enough lanes. Power is the same thing. There's only a few hours a day where you really stress the system.

And so, I think the working solution to get around this regulatory issue is, you do the

PPAs with the data centers, you force the data centers to throw a ton of battery behind it and some peakers just to get through that really intense period. And then that's a good band-aid solution until we build more power. So, there's ways to do this human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills.

They're going to be, I think, relatively under control. They're going to go up. They're going to be under control. Okay, Dan, I have three questions from the audience. Really good ones.

Number one, does your thesis actually need behind the meter of co-location to clear or is it just a bet that cleaned firm base load is scarce enough that it doesn't matter what their power flows in front of or behind the meter? It's the latter.

And that's why I gave three scenarios, right?

The $50 a share of earnings per share, again, in a high $300 stock, right? $50 a share of earnings nothing has to happen. You just sit, right? And then you double your money. Now, if you get more behind the meter or even front of the meter,

that's how you get up to that $70 a share of earnings from 50. And then, if you get up to the $70, but start building new capacity, then you get to the $100 plus. Okay, question two, from Brad, how do you think about competition for power from things like fuel cells, gas turbines, aerodynamic turbines,

or real compute, and other sort of IPPs independent power producer? We need all of it.

We need all of it.

We need all of it.

We, you know, fuel cells and, you know, the caterpillar solar turbines.

These are fantastic bridge solutions. But the cost to run these things. The LCOE is like through the roof.

But, you, you know, to build a $50 billion data center,

you don't want to sit idle for three years waiting for your base load CCGT. So you do whatever it takes. You don't give a crap what you pay for that bridge solution. And so we're finding ways through fuel cells, through, you know, caterpillar solar turbines, hopefully through our build data centers,

where we can alleviate this because I want AI to happen in a really big way and we're going to need all of the above. Okay, question three, by the way, great questions, guys. Thank you for these. What is the right terminal multiple for Talon,

if the business mix shifts from merchant IPP to contracted infrastructure? Fabulous question. And, and the, addendum here. And what percentage of EBITDA

needs to be contracted before the market should re-rate it?

So that's a great question. And the, I only had six minutes to do this, and I think I blew through my time. So I couldn't get into this kind of detail, but it's something I would have really wanted to get into. So whoever asks that, thank you.

I just used the 15 multiple because it's sort of a blended multiple between the contracted stuff, which will get a big premium multiple because, you know, it's a bond like cash flow stream and bond like cash flow streams trade at a small spread to treasuries. And so treasuries if they're at 5%, should trade at 20 times plus

some growth or whatever, plus or minus. The uncontracted stuff, the merchant stuff that has spot market exposure is more volatile, less visible. That should trade it a lower multiple. We can get into the minutia, but just suffice to say, the more

contracts, the higher the multiple, the less the lower the multiple. Use 15 times as a good rule of thumb, and you'll probably get to the right answer. Which would I use? That last question from Daniel. Sure, thank you for that.

Dan, thank you. That was great. Oh, yeah. Great. Thanks.

[ Applause ] My name's Oleg Nodelman.

I'm the founder and managing director of Egor 1 Capital.

San Francisco based value oriented biotech fund that I started about 13 years ago. Thanks a lot to the besties for having me here. I'm a huge fan of the pod, like I'm sure all of us are. And I know how challenged science corner can get.

So I wrote this in a way that even David Sachs would appreciate and pay attention to if he were here. Well, paradoxically he's taking a nap, which is what he normally does during science corners. Exactly.

Generally speaking, investing in a biotech company is a horrible idea. Sandwich somewhere between movies, wineries and spacts. In fact, our sector often feels a lot more like a casino than an actual financial market. And most of the tourists who are investing are playing the slots. Of course, at Egor 1, we consider ourselves poker players.

In the sector where virtually everyone else is a momentum investor betting on science, we focus on margin of safety. We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs. And that's by design because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk reward.

And like the slide says, we want to monetize other kids' science projects. This is my 25th year investing in biotech. I started my career with an 11 year stint at another fund

and launched Egor 1 in 2013 humble beginnings with 13 million.

Since inception, we've 10x to our investors and annualized it 20%. And today we have about two and a half billion under management. We're lucky to have long-term partners, many of whom are biotech entrepreneurs themselves and have been with us since day one. And we recently reopened for the first time in four years.

Today, I'm going to tell you about a company that's on the front lines of the war on cancer. Military terminology has been used when describing treatments for the disease since the early 70s, when President Nixon signed the National Cancer Act. Doorfare analogy is actually perfect. Doorfare is actually perfect for cancer because both domains are trying to accomplish the exact same thing.

Find the enemy, figure out the best weapon to kill them, and have minimal unwanted casualties along the way. First, a quick history of how this war has evolved. Early surgical cancer treatment and radiation was akin to a medieval siege. Level the entire castle, burn this surrounding village, and hope the enemy was left somewhere in the rubble. Chemo actually evolved from an accidental observation during World War I.

That mustard gas killed rapidly dividing tissue. Two more cells divide fast, so doctors would flood a patient's body with chemo and hope to kill the enemy faster than to kill the allies. Unfortunately, hair, skin, gut, and marrow cells also divide quickly, and the poison doesn't discriminate.

First generation targeted therapies were next, like a GPS guided munition.

Instead of carpet bombing every dividing cell, you identify the enemy's comma...

The problem, like with any weapon, is that the enemy adapts and hides, and then cancer, these are called resistant mutations.

Immunotherapy was first introduced to patients a decade ago.

With IO, you don't send in your own troops, your acute local allies, also known as T cells, and let them do the fighting for you. Spectacular when it works, but a highly dependent on the terrain or the tumor microenvironment. This brings me to the reason we're here today. Modern-day radiopharmaceuticals, like a swarm of micro drones, small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition, then detonate a precisely sized warhead with the blast radius of 100 microns, or the diameter of a single cell, an autonomous assassination with the force of a bunker buster, and minimum collateral damage.

The company I'm going to tell you about today is activists oncology. The ticker is AKTS. The company has a billion dollar market cap, a $500 million in our prize value, and a stock file of cash, which should last them over three years.

Long past critical milestones that are coming next year.

Actus was started five years ago, but recently went public with a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed, and backed stopped with a hundred million dollar order by Eli Lilly. The folks who bring you all the weight loss drugs. The company's designed to platform that can carry any radioactive payload is complex enough to go after a variety of targets, and small enough to clear your body with minimal side effects. The beautiful thing about this approach is that physicians can verify target engagement in early clinical trials with imaging.

This significantly derisks clinical development because you know the drug is getting to the tumor. Another de-risking strategy for the first few programs Actus chose known valid targets like Nectin 4 and B7H3.

Nectin 4 is critical in bladder cancer, and the company's second program targeting B7H3 is even more ambitious.

Expressed on every major solid tumor, including the big three, prostate, colorectal, and lung. Back-to-started clinical trials last year, and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027. Was Nectin 4 coming as early as Q1, so you won't have to wait long. If either program shows a signal, the company is likely to get value not only for those programs, but the entire mini protein platform. This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come.

What's even more compelling is there's an amazing amount of interest in radiotherapies from Pharma. The big ones including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer and Lily, who backed up the Actus IPO, have been building radiotherapy capabilities, and they're hungry for assets to add to their pipelines. There's been $15 billion in DNA and deal making a radiotherapy in the last few years, and we're very much in the early innings. The neatest thing about this modality is that it's very hard to replicate. Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radio isotopes, it's off limits to China, so unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat.

And now, the obligatory safety warning. Actus is not for everyone, you should flood your biotech analysts before purchasing Actus, initially in a position because the increased anxiety reduced sleep to the night.

As soon as the jobs and stockings are current biotech, media later in dust can be experienced at the level of utility to the handling of your competitors. Stocking clients are exposed to a full reason to call your broker immediately to future position. Remember serious safety concerns over other companies, local developer programs. We'll let safety concerns occur than the Actus phone for a day, they'd be in the future. The use of any product you's liberating from a source is not to improve it. Actus is no larger products, and thus no work for a revenue. The solution for equity offerings may occur, and the event of a secondary offering immediately is scheduled call with Actus Management team to discuss place and order.

It's notoriously challenging to value bad to companies because when you risk adjust and discount back, you pretty quickly get to zero. For earlier stage opportunities like this, we like to triangulate. We think Actus could be worth $10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market. And in this case, you have a lot of outs. I'm not familiar with why radio isotopes are all limits to China. In this particular case, Actus's radio isotope payload is Actinium, and Actinium is manufactured from radium 233, which was used in our own nuclear programs in the U.S. in the 50s and 60s, so it's a waste product from there.

Actinium is not even available in other countries like China, because they had a completely different program. It was completely different with enriched uranium with plutonium. But the risk for a lot of biotech and China replication came about that Amgen, Sonofi Supreme Court case, didn't it, where you could make a small, because it basically set up patents or composition of matter patents.

You could change one amino acid, get around the patent, China has basically d...

That's kind of why a lot of biotech has been depressed. Is that not true?

Yeah, so with radio isotopes again, because you have to have a manufacturing supply that you have to source locally in the U.S. We haven't seen any competition coming from China at all.

And if they have a successful readout, though, would it not be like the case that someone in China would say, "Hey, let's go get some of the necessary radio isotopes?" I'm sure they can do it for the Chinese market, but in terms of then transferring that over here, we haven't seen it or any wind of it at all. And so then my last question, sorry, from an uprising, why do you think the markets discounted the value so much since the IPO? Oh, God, it's pretty classic biotech, so it's traded flat since the IPO. Biotech investors are so insanely short term oriented that even though we're now call it 8 or 9 months from data, that's still way too long.

And so our expectation is in the folks who started accumulating this in the second half in anticipation of the data coming in the first quarter. Gavin, you had a question? Yeah, sure. Oh, look, so in the distant past, I ran a biopharmaceutical fund. It's a very hard job. Congratulations on those numbers. But I ran that fund right after the human genome had been sequenced. And there was an expectation that the sequencing of the genome was going to lead to this explosion in therapies. I realized medicine, et cetera, et cetera. And I don't think broadly speaking, we've made a much progress over the last 25 years, has maybe people thought in the early 2000s.

And my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans and AI is going to unlock a lot of kind of revolutionary therapies.

The question to you, I will just admit is a self-a-squestion. It is not about your stock pitch, which is great. It's what do you think the odds are that in the lifetimes of everyone in this room, the average human life span in a developed country extends well past 100 to 125, 150. I would take the over on that in no small part, because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there and folks don't even realize it in the clip ones and the obesity drugs. So one of the only things that's ever been shown in actual data to extend life is chloric restriction, and that's literally what all the obesity drugs do.

So I'm sure half the people in the room are on one of them, and that's just the beginning because it's trained people that you can inject yourself with something and have the healthy living through pharmaceuticals.

So I think that's only going to continue.

Oh, I got two questions from the audience, first one. As the launch costs per kilogram, continue to fall, is there a credible pathway to use space and microgravity as a therapeutic variable given that cancer cells appear to behave differently in low gravity environments? That's a great question that's probably not applicable to this.

Okay, and then the second question, what would be a technological breakthrough that could disrupt precision radio therapy as a result of AI at scale to drug development and pre-cancer screen?

Yeah, another awesome question. There's a small scunks work project within actors, AI projects. So with all these strategies companies, they have their little proprietary data sets that they hope to leverage with various insights. So I'll come to you like this with their mini proteins and everything else they're trying to accomplish. A little tiny group of PhD data scientists nerds who are seeing if they can leverage that in a pretty decent way.

So it's been really hard to get CART in solid tumors.

Is it the case that these kind of personalized peptide-based immunotherapy therapies are showing some efficacy in some solid tumors?

And is that space that's going to expand and kind of intersect here? What's most promising that I think a lot of folks probably heard of is a new drug for pancreatic cancer from a company called RavMed with just another targeted therapy. So for now, there's not a huge amount of progress from peptide. Have you looked at deep proteins before? These kind of right-handed proteins that seem to be able to penetrate solid tumors?

Well, so one of the neat things about these mini proteins is they're hopefully of the right size to be able to deliver their payload inside of the tumors.

Incredible. Oh, like thank you. Thank you.

Oh, thanks. By the way, by the way, somebody just got a load into the stocks while it's all like was on stage. It's up 6%. Like, don't do that while we're all trying to buy as well, please come on. Morning, everyone. My name is Kyle Sumony. Thank you for being with us at the all-on-the-quiddity today.

Thanks to the best of these for organizing. Today we're going to be talking about a little known asset, a little crypto asset called geo-net,

Which is building the rails for AI.

So let's jump in. Quick bit about me. I found that a firm got multi-coin capital by eight and a half years ago. I stepped down a few months ago. And in my time there, I was probably most well-known for leading all three rounds of investment in Solana, prior to Solana's network launch in 2020.

It'd been deep in the crypto space for a very long time. And I thought this would be a very natural forum to talk about a very interesting investment at the intersection of crypto and AI. Also, big shout out to David Sachs and fortunately, he's not here, but David did the seed multi-coin back in the day. So thank you, David, for believing in me very early. All right, let's get into geo-net.

So the way to understand geo-net first is to look at GPS.

Probably everyone in this room has been in this situation on the left, where you're using your phone and your phone is in the wrong spot, facing the wrong way. Right here, you can see this guy looks like he's facing a wall according to his phone. Geo-net, if fundamentally, is a new, uses a technology called RTK, or real-time kinematics, where you can localize your location down to about two centimeters. For context, GPS, roughly the precision is about two meters. So you're getting about a hundred X accuracy for very precise geolocation.

As you can imagine, any form of kind of robotics can make use of RTK, drones, be the very office example. I'll touch on a few more. There's in a couple minutes here. Today, geo-net is the world's largest RTK network in the world, and that's also the fastest growing. The three companies you see on the left here, Trimble, Hexagon and TopCon, have all been building RTK networks in some form of fashion for a college 20 to 30 years. All of them combined have roughly 12,000 base stations deployed around the world.

Geo-net was founded in 2021, began building out the network in 2022. And today, they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined. Today, geo-net is live in 150 countries around the world, more than 11,000 cities, and covers roughly 80% of the global population, excluding some sanctioned countries. So this thing is really growing quickly.

You might say, how did these guys build this network so fast?

And the key is really this decentralized crypto model. So here we're looking at, literally, a photo of a geo-net base station on their roof of someone's house. The global geo-net network, those 22,000 nodes, are not being built in deployed by someone that looks like AT&T or Verizon. Those base stations are being deployed by any random guy, or hobbyist, or professional, or small business owner, who wants to make some extra money.

You can go on the geo-net's website today. You can buy one of these base stations, there are a few hundred bucks. You put it on your roof of your house or your small business. It broadcast radio waves. You make money.

You actually get paid in geo tokens, which is a really cool part about this incentive system to bootstrap this thing to get it off the ground. So the geo-net network started out four years ago doing this. Today, it's not the largest task is growing in the world by pretty wide margin.

If you want to send to scale, here we're looking at their coverage of United States.

Obviously, every single major metro is covered, but even if you look at most of the rural parts of the country, you're covering actually the vast majority of even the rural areas. Let's talk about some of the customers and use cases for this.

We'll start with the agriculture first.

The USDA actually launched a couple years ago a program to encourage farmers and ranchers to use precise act technologies, including RTK networks. Today, actually, the USDA is now actually subsidizing many farmers and ranchers all over the country to adopt high precision act, most of which is powered by geo-net. I'm getting into some specific examples of that. Here, we're looking at what's called a robotic nule.

This is made by a company called Burrow. Obviously, this is transporting some grapes. You could put anything on this. It has pretty obvious application for almost any farmer ranch. You can imagine with the advent and computer vision.

CPUs, batteries, all the AI stuff. These things are going like hotcakes. All of them are going to be powered by geo-net or something like it. Here, we're looking at John Deer. They have a new service that they will now recently called Global Unman Springs Systems or Gus. These things drive around. They literally spray plants with pesticides and other things of that like that.

I did actually confirm this morning there are wineries here in Napa that are actually using John Deer Gus vehicles. That was pretty cool. So if you have some wines tonight, maybe it was powered by Gus. I was powered by geo-net. Obviously, how Thomas vehicles does a pretty obvious application for this. Tom Tom is one of geo-net's customers.

Tom Tom is a supplier to basically every AV program in the world. So they may be a couple. And today, Tom Tom is using geo-net's data to update their maps to get them more accurate and precise as they need to cover every square inch basically around the planet. One of my favorite use cases are kind of the next way of consumer robotics, which are getting a lot of hype these days.

I think the most obvious one are robotic lawnmowers. I don't think anyone loves to move their lawn.

Relotic lawnmowers are now actually rolling out at pretty good scale.

They're estimated they're going to sell one million robotic lawnmowers this year.

Bated by companies like Yarbo, Sunseeker and others. All of those go to these guys are all powered by geo-net. Next up, let's get to drones.

The world's largest drone manufacturing DJI is a geo-net customer.

It's not in all of their models, but it isn't a lot of their models. And so, obviously, DJI is sending a ton of traffic now over geo-net. In the coming months and years, as DJI wounds down in the U.S. And you have a wave of American geo-net manufacturers pop up. I'm going to venture to guess that most, if not all of them are going to end up on the geo-net network.

As well, the geo-net team is based on U.S. as deep roots here. What I'm about geo-net is it's a very obvious network's effect network's effect network effects business. This thing looks like a natural telecom. You have base stations kind of all over the world. You've got to cover the whole planet.

Telecom's naturally formanopolis.

Historically, I think the same is likely to be true here.

Today, geo-net is the world's largest and fastest growing network with also the lowest cost structure by a very wide margin. Because of this decentralized nature, where people just put these things on top of their house.

In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about $11 million in annualized run rate a few days ago.

And it's growing more than three after year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months. What's really cool about geo-net is how capital efficient it is and how they're actually returning capital to token holders. So today, the geo-net network is taking off that 11 million in revenue, roughly 80% of it is being used to make open market purchases of geo tokens. And this is all visible on the Sloanoblock chain. They have all the addresses or published and stuff.

So it's all verifiable in real time. That means $8.8 million right now per year is going into buying and geo-net tokens on the open market. What's amazing is that last 20% is they're covering all their R&D costs and scaling out now their business development team. With the business like this, of course, like it's a pretty small network of customers. The guys who work at John Deer know the guys who work at the GI who know the guys who work at Tom Tom.

And so this thing is now growing virally amongst this kind of core community of customers. And as you can imagine with customers who sign up for a service like this, they tend to ramp up their usage of that service over time. So once someone starts rolling out geo-net in the first year they're usually spending about $60,000 per year after two years though they're usually spending about $170,000 per year. So the average geo-net customers growing their revenue with geo-net about 3x in that second year.

Obviously then we look at their just their customers, they've signed up in the last two years. You can see they five X their customer base last year, those are net new customers. So applying some pretty simple math here, you can see they have a very clear path to more than 3x this year as this thing ramps up. Just wrap things up summary. John, as the world's largest R&DK network, growing the fastest, it has really obvious network effects and is likely to be a very natural monopoly.

Growing 3X over year with a bunch of flagship customers and brands that you all know.

Obviously we have this huge physical AI tailwind behind us now, robotics and all of the other amazing stuff happening.

And there were turning top of the shareholders. The token does trade on the Sloan blockchain.

If you want to trade it's 24/7, the ticker is geo-de.

So if you want to actually get some geo tokens, I encourage you to sign up for a crypto wallet. It's a Sloan wallet and you can go ahead and buy geo-get tokens from there. And with that I think we are ready for some Q&A. Awesome. What's the market cap?

Oh it's not. It's pretty about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like going back to a market cap, they're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million. That's because not all of the tokens are floating yet.

But the fully diluted number is about 1 million.

Is there a corporation behind it? Or is this just like a project in the Cayman Islands in Panama with a board that nobody knows who's on it? Tell us about governance. So the geo-net team is US-based corporation. There are 14s of San Francisco, the CEO's name is Mike Orton.

Really, really good guy has been building in this kind of IOT smart device space. Play the relationship between the corporate entity and the token. And which one should we own? You should own the tokens. I own a lot of token as you might imagine.

I don't know any of the equity. The relationship is geo-net. The company is facing John D. or DJI all of these companies. And they have a contractual relationship with the geo-net foundation. Use 80% of their revenues to buy tokens and off the open market.

And that's that corporation raised venture capital or anything?

Yes. My prior company will be able to go and actually let around the NGO that previously. Okay, Kyle, I have many questions from the audience. So bear with me. Question one.

Do you like helium as much, which is geo-net for 5G signal? Yes, I actually led multi-quarantine investment in helium 6 or 7 years ago. And it could seem to be a very big long-term believer. They actually had big news go out this morning. But yeah, I'm a big helium fan.

Question two. There's a long list of deep-in projects that have failed because people just don't value the token rewards. Why is this any different? I mean, they're returning capital to shareholders. This thing is, you know, returning $8.8 million to shareholders.

Just trading at $150 million of valuation. And it's going to grow 3x this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's cryptocurrency market right now. Okay, from Sam.

Can I say, it's a secure-tized interest in the cash flows from the customers?

Effectively, yes.

It is a revenue. It is a revenue share token. Correct. Okay.

So the more John Deere pays geo-net the company, the more you basically deprecate the tokens,

which it caused the token. They're buying token to the developer market. Yes. Sam, what accrues value? The equity or the token.

Similarly, it's coverage.

How does the value accrual mechanisms square or not with current securities laws or what's contemplated in the clarity act?

Yeah. So the one answer to the question is, the tokens are the ones who claim value because they're taking 80% in buying. The other 20% is obviously funding operations. They have engineers, salespeople, all that stuff. So that's all there.

Being funded. There's just securities laws. The clarity acts passing is certainly very good for geo-net. I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to tell you that it passes the bars set in a clarity act. But I can tell you, I'm an optimist and I've been very involved in the clarity act.

And I'm not too worried about it. Okay. Can I ask about the business just real quick? So John Deere, I know this space somewhat well. I used to manage a company called precision planting in agriculture.

And there was John Deere makes their own RTK systems. So when you run a piece of equipment that relies on RTK, you're buying in the construction industry, top-con or like a trimble or John Deere. And you install the RTK based stations and you run your equipment. Why would John Deere and others want to rely on this system as a,

like why is it better than like the systems that they're already using?

It wasn't quite clear to me. I mean, CapEx versus OPEX, right? Like these networks are all over the world now. They're running at very low cost. Geonette is probably a third to half.

Sorry, a third to a quarter of the price. Then buying up your own CapEx and doing it. And it's just available everywhere. So now it just reduces the sale cycle time for John Deere when they just say, "By the tractor, it's good."

There's another big push right now for micro-sats to be an alternative to GPS in a way that they can actually provide sub-centimeter resolution. Effectively replacing both GPS and RTK using a mesh network from SpaceX launched or actually SpaceX. I don't know if SpaceX is looked at doing this, but I know that there is a very well-funded company that is trying to put up micro-sats to basically replace GPS and RTK.

Doesn't that ultimately kind of wash out the need to have all these Earth-based based stations? There's no chance they can be on cost because just sending things to space. That's so, I mean, these Geonette based stations are a few hundred bucks. Like you're just not going to be on cost with Geonette. You don't need that. This is a viable replacement that's scale and saturation for GPS itself.

No, GPS is definitely very different. Because yes, LA is different.

You've got to have ubiquity for GPS alternative, which is why you have to have the satellite satellite.

You've got to have an upset. But if you get an upset-alight, you can actually get to RTK precision. And you don't need to have the big expensive GPS. You have a hybrid situation where you have a bunch of Geon Leo plus a bunch of base stations all over the place. That hybrid situation probably.

You can actually get the Leo alone can replace all of the Geo stuff. That's the goal. And then, if you get enough of them, which is based-sex unlocked. And what about other tokens when you think about other compute tasks like work to be done, for example, there's a bunch of tokens that have emerged in distributed training.

How did you hone in on this and exclude the others? I mean, not, I mean, prefer this over that. I mean, I met the Geo nut founder a year ago, he pitched us and I've gotten to know, I'm going to follow it. There's distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I'm pretty skeptical that I don't think any of it's going to work.

The distributed in front stuff is possible, although it has not worked as well as we would have hoped. I did put some money behind that a few years ago. It's working, but not a plus. One last thing I should have added on your prior question, I went out highlight. It's also energy use, going to space just to consume way more energy than going to a base station that's on the ground.

And so, yeah, for a tractor, maybe that doesn't matter, but for a drone, or for any other battery-sensitive application,

ground is always going to be the preferred solution.

Super interesting. Well done. How, thank you. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys.

Before we vote, Timoth, give your feedback. Here's what I like. I apply the stand-druck and Miller School of Invest in Investigate. I really believe in it. Yes.

If you don't have any skin in the game, you don't care. And this is the kind of stuff that I love. I love hearing ideas like this. I love all four. My difference is in sizing.

So, you know, there's certain asymmetric alpha that each one of these exhibits. And then there's very different downside risk for each of them. And then there's also liquidity issues. So, for example, I love Kyle's idea.

The problem is, I could not get enough working for me.

So, I don't even think I could get a million dollars in today. It would scale in. It would move the market. So, I would have to, I'd have to probably, I'd be like 10, 20, 30,000,

Then maybe start to buy into it.

Talon, I think, that you could absorb 10,000 millions, and people wouldn't buy an eyelash.

The biotech company, the issue there is that I think that there is, as you said,

Freebird, this discontinuous illiquidity zero risk. But then there's the 10x upside. So, there's just, like, huge glider. No, really, really, a little bit for it. And then MGM, I think, is just, so I think MGM and Talon are the ones you could have huge sizing in.

Right. And then the other ones, I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets. I think you're a point on MGM. Okay, wait, hold on. Let me just review.

So, company number one was MGM. And that was Amazon. And that was Amazon. Okay, company number two. Talon.

Talon energy. Company number three. Actress. Actress. Actress.

Yes. Yeah. And then, CEO net. CEO net, not company, but, I guess, token. Yeah.

Company number four, Geo net. And you're buying the token, not the company. Do you think the, maybe, for you two, Gavin, like the, We're Gavin, you ranked them. Yeah.

Even before you rank, just tell us what you think of the format and then assess the companies. We'll do ranking at the end. We're going to do four, three, two, four, three, two, one on stage. But give me your general ideas about the pitches what you liked what you did. I thought the pitches were great.

I thought the format was amazing. I would for sure expand it next year. There are platforms that you guys could have a all all in basket or ETF that people could trade in. So, like, maybe that's something.

Will you do it next year? Will I pitch next year? Yeah. I'll do anything else again. I lost.

Actually, here's what I would ask Gavin to put you on the spot.

Next year, I, I think we would all learn and benefit.

If you would do silicon and memory super cycle. Sure. If you will need to do that for us. I'll do it. Sign me up.

Perfect, great. Sign me up. Thank you. So keep going. Well, no, as far as the pitches, I do think, I get to important to disaggregate.

Like, what was a really great entertaining pitch? First, what I think is, is a really good risk award. I thought Oleg and Kyle did a great job with the pitches. But I'm, I'm not a healthcare investor, nor my crypto investor. I thoroughly enjoyed the presentations.

I actually thought Gina was very interesting. I'm happy to learn from Oleg that I might lift well into my 100s. That was good news for me and everybody in the room. I enjoyed all the, um, the military, um, terminology and analogy. And that was really great, huh?

That was great. Really great. I do think, um, from a pure risk award perspective. I thought, MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bed.

And then you have, uh, Japan and Dubai.

As I think, very valuable future sources of value.

Uh, and, and I do think Talon is also a very compelling risk award. I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk, which we talked about last time. Um, that, that I was on the part with you guys. And I don't know how to dimensionalize that.

And, um, you know, I've been, like, the big negative externality for Talon. Is nothing to do with Talon. Nothing to do with Talon. It's like something over the top from the US government caps prices. Something for something.

Yeah, you have nationalized the level. You have a change in administration. You have a change in Congress. There's laws that are passed that I think make it hard for terrestrial compute, which changes the utilities supplied to man.

But I actually think outside of that Talon was super compelling. And you got MGM. You got Talon. Yes. You got the other two.

I, I, I, I thought they were both great pitches. Can I tie them for third? Just, well, don't even get the score. Just, any feedback on those two ideas, or those are just a little bit lottery ticket for you?

Or? No. I thought actress was was very compelling. They're trying to try to do something different. All I said, if you ever get a biotech company that can become a platform,

and they have a mechanism, whether it's of drugging, whether it's targeting, or if you have something that is broadly applicable, that is when you can get these really, really big.

$100 billion plus outcomes in biotech, which are rare.

So I thought that part of. Right. Actos was super compelling. And you don't play crypto. But I thought the entire GNET discussion was fascinating.

And I'm happy that we get you off the bench and make you jump into the crypto game. Or it's just your, why are you not playing the crypto game? I feel about crypto exactly the way I do about snowboarding. Okay. I'm, I'm not a very good athlete.

I've spent a lifetime learning how to ski, and I'm okay. And just the idea of getting out of snowboard, have a, you know, thousands of hours of ski instruction. You don't want to paint it again. Yes.

I have 25 years of lessons, learnings, paying stars from,

from investing in equity is in public securities. And just crypto. It's a little bit like snowboarding for me, but like, you know, to everybody who wants to snowboard, that's great. Just please don't go sideways down the mountain and with the powder.

David, I think you're, you're a settlement of MGM talent.

Okay. I think you're, MGM. I look at the kind of return upside, the downside and the timeline. MGM's like probably at three X. I think it's also missing this point that I've heard a lot about.

You can actually upgrade the monetization on these Vegas properties. We were talking to a friend of ours in Vegas.

They're, they're making a million bucks a day in incremental EBITDA.

Every day that they have a show at the sphere at the, at the Venetian hotel, which is an unbelievable statistic, which tells you that when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies, flies. And so, very dillar. I have heard separately has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment

at these properties. And thanks, he has an idea on how to do it, which will cause the gambling revenue to fly.

So I think even if you discount the upside on these new locations,

there's probably a lot of work to be done here. And then I do like MGM, the floor on the bid. And then you've got call at three X in two years, even if this bid goes nowhere and they keep the thing running. And they're like, we're going to reject the bid and keep running independently.

Talon is maybe three X upside, five X upside, but it's eight years out.

And I think one of the other challenges with Talon that I would kind of use as a valuation metric is I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is. Because the power purchase agreement really are where a lot of the revenue comes from. So you're going to get a discount rate that's a multi, that's a function of where interest rates are sitting. So I think if interest rates shoot up, which some might argue there's risk there,

you actually get margin compression from that 15 X outlook that he has for Talon. So that would be my kind of downside scenario on Talon. In the time ahead, an activist, I do worry, because I'm an investor in a company that's got a deep protein, conjugate that shows really strong efficacy in getting solid tumors.

I think that there are new modalities for therapeutics for solid tumors that are being discussed that may kind of put this at risk.

I think the China risk is legit because I've seen it across the board and biotech. Everything gets ripped off and people go to China, but they could have a hit and lily could bid on it in six months if they actually get a good readout. So there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 57% if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out. So I think the ranking is probably NGM Talon Actus, and then for me, the geodnet piece, I just think the space thing is likely the path. It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.

It's inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up. All right, great. So I think I've got everybody. For me, I put them into two buckets. I think AKTS and GOD, those are like lottery tickets could be crazy returns, but there's a big probability of a zero there if they don't actually work.

And then MGM and Talon obviously got the downside protection and those feel like people always gamble and leave the lights on.

So I kind of like both of those. I put 200k into each in real life. So that's just like, I don't have a public view of you actually by I'm just day trading. I bought half of this action. I don't have a Robinhood account. I have to call my office, so I was like, just I'll take you to lose, buddy.

I'm up to seven, I didn't deal with your thumbs. I'm up to seven percent across the portfolio. So I don't think I can include you here. I waited the three in the order I said. So anyway, I'll just give mine really quick.

I will go MGM, Talon, GOD, AKTS. Gavin's only going to make it. Okay, truly. Let's bring it up for pictures. I would have a thousand dollars.

I'll give you the two men hugging statue. Wait, wait, no, before you announce it. I need the extremely alpha male heterosexual trophy. The all in heterosexual alpha male trophy plays. And I need our four pictures to come on stage because it makes it more exciting.

It's like, makes it uncomfortable when like they show the five people for a best actor. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. You put those on the table. Wait, where's my award for the award?

Please bring me the extremely heterosexual alpha male award. You'll see why when I show you the award. Let me show you how we 3D model. No one wants to see this. Look at this.

This is two men, uncomfortably hugging. And the way we did this, see it, it's a bestie work. Come here, free burger. I'm not doing it with you. Come on, free burger.

You do it with your free burger.

Okay, fine. You've been extremely comfortable. That's David and I.

It's David you, but let's show them how we model this.

We just did it along. This is uncomfortable. And we hold it for five extra seconds. Two minutes, you get the release of all these, and there it is. Okay, so gentlemen, this is it.

Do you guys have the results? Go ahead, audience award. Okay, audience award. So based on 150 votes from the audience. Do I just go 4 to 1?

4 to 1. 4 to 1 is more exciting. Okay. Fourth place with 5% of the vote was Kyle Samani. Okay, well done.

On the board.

A very close second place.

No, third place. No, third place. With 21% of the vote. Oh, like. Rock, like.

Oh, boy. We're closing in here. Oh, yeah. Okay. Very dramatic.

And with 50. 50. 50. 50. 50.

I'm going to go. You say number one now. Okay. Okay. Well, okay, sorry.

You're right.

With 24% of the vote in second place.

We're counting from GM number one with 50% of the vote.

Dan Dreyfus. Wow. Unbelievable. Give it up. Nice.

Done. Now the best. Hold on. Before you do the best. How do you feel right now?

Having won this. Pass him the award. You guys win so uncomfortable. [laughter] You guys are smiling.

Sorry.

But pass him his award for a second.

Let him hold it. Give it a Academy Award. Thank you. Thank you. Everybody hug up to this place.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All right. Come on.

Okay. Now. Okay. That's the award. Four, three, two, one.

It's a relatively similar here. Fourth place was Kyle Simone. Okay. Third place was O like. Second place.

Dan Dreyfus. First place. Aaron Colin. Big upset. Flip the audience vote.

There you go. All right. So MGM win. Thank you guys. This was amazing.

All right. Thank you all for participating. Thank you very much. Thank you so much for coming. And we'll see you.

Amen. [music playing]

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