GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal

Super exciting for you, brother. Thank you. It's really great.

“I got a birthday letter from the big man. Oh, wow.”

If you would ask my parents 50 years later, you're going to have a kid that gets a letter from the vinceding president of the United States. They would have thought absolutely not possible. Wow. Look at that. Which white house in turn wrote that? Well, actually speaking about interns, it was an intern. In this case, it was my son. The story was that, you know, Braden worked at the White House all summer as an intern.

And at the end of the summer, you know, he used all of the political capital he built and put in a request to get this letter from the president and he did it. Obviously, I want to thank photos for sending me the letter, but I really want to thank my son because it was a really thoughtful, thoughtful thing that he did for me. So, really appreciative of that. That actually is impressive because, you know, it takes time out of the president's schedule

“to sign things. So, that's what I mean, something, you know?”

Alright, listen, breaking news, breaking news. It's a breaking news story here on the All-Impocalypse OpenAI is rolling out chatGPT6 aka Astra, ASTRA folks. This is their new flagship model. It's going to be available to a limited set of organizations in the coming days. You all will be able to get it. If you have a credit card in your chatGPT account, i.e. the plus pro business and enterprise users, you're going to get it soon.

Greg Brockman says, he believes OpenAI has entered the A.G. I error. And we've talked about that here before Sam Altman is, well, he's back to being a little bit

performative slash alarmist, or he sincerely believes that this is the one. Here's what he said

at Wednesday's G20 Summit, quote, "much, much, much, three, much is. More capable models are coming soon. The next generation of models are going to be sobering for everyone and is final quote. I think no one intellectually honest can look at what's happening and not feel the weight of responsibility in front of us, my lord, a little bit of drama there, added to his, his quotes, people are freaking out about the benchmarks which are off the charts. Some people are saying,

this is the one, your thoughts, Shemoth. I don't think normal humans know how to read this chart and infer anything useful from it. The more important takeaway I agree with Greg, I think AGI is basically been here since the beginning of the year. There are models that are incredibly performant inside of the close front of your lab companies. And I think right now we're

“trying to figure out the right cadence with which to release it. I think it's very important.”

I also think that these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of close source alternatives and open source alternatives probably within the next three or four months. So I think the right way to think about this for most people is we are seeing

incredible intelligence capabilities be broad, be available and we are seeing the cost

of that incremental unit of intelligence being driven further and further down. So it's a really positive trend. Now I think it's just the messy middle part of organizing this properly for companies and for people and building things that are useful and showing an actual ROI and I would just keep calm and carry on. Okay, Saxony bucks here on breaking news today. And then Freyberg, I'll get your reaction. But by the way, it is very exciting and

congratulations to OpenAI and I'm sure Anthropica will have something as grock, you know grock still has yet to drop for six is coming. That's going to be a blockbuster. The meta models are really good. Gemini just drops something yesterday that was exceptional. So the great thing is we have a lot of choice and the even better thing is the cost of that choice is becoming cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. That's very exact. Let me tee it up here this way. Opening AI seems to get its groove back now

after Anthropica was running away with it. Rock and rock bought are doing things that those two other frontier models simply can't do so the execution whether it's a harness or the underlying model or the instructions that or curses magic sauce. It's clearly grock bought is competitive if not better for most users. So vibrant, vibrant competition with leapfrogging occurring at a cadence I would say of two to four weeks right now. This is what you told us you were going to do instead of setting

like when Jensen gets in here with Laguna and his access to all these open source models. I mean this this could be fate or complete. Know that we win the AI race here. Look there's a lot of innovation

“going on. I think American companies are competing very well. I think we are winning the AI race”

songs we don't do something stupid to shoot ourselves in the foot. Like? Well I've talked

about it a million times. I mean setting up a new AI regulatory agency that operates like the FDA

and takes years to approve new models. Yeah. But anyway, I don't think it's going to happen under President Trump early. Don't. So anyway, things are going well. Look Sam told us a few months ago. Remember when he posted and said that he was expecting the company to have its best 12 months. He said the last year hasn't been so great but the next year is going to be really great. Maybe it was because they're seeing these results in the lab, you know? Sure. And then remember

what Sarah Fire said that I think it was since the beginning of Q2. So around the middle of the year they saw a market acceleration in their growth rate. That was I think with the release of the 5.6 models. Now you're seeing the 6.0 models and man. I mean it just keeps advancing. But look,

“I still would say to you that I think the market structure that we have right now is there's two”

markets. There's the market for frontier intelligence and that is a duopoly. That really is

anthropic and open AI and it's good to see that that is still a horse race and they're competing and then there's commodity intelligence which is everybody else including all the open models and they're not competing on being at the frontier they're competing on price and those prices are significantly lower. But it really is I think a two-tier market at this point. I agree with you about how promising Grockbott is. Grockbott is awesome. Yeah. I would assume that both the

anthropic and open AI will eventually roll out their own version of a bot. They need a simplified trip down version for noones and they can leave the more complicated co-work etc to the top five or ten percent of the audience. Yeah, the ratings here from Polymarket which company has the best AI model by the end of 2026 open AI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20. Well, we're really catching them out now. It looks like they're viable again. Anything that creates

“competition I think is good before it looked like anthropic was running away with it. They're about”

to have this monster IPO. If open AI can at least make it a two-horse race, that's good. I think it's great that Grockbott launched. I agree with you. The product is awesome. Here's your big tip David. I created a new bot and I called it improve my bots bot and I made a bot and I said, give me an instruction set here. Go through all my bots and fill out their scales and instructions and make them better every day. It went through and it took like two or three of them said,

can I put these two or three together and make one instruction set? It would be better for you. These two or three should come together and it then went through and told me all the changes made my bots like 30, 40% better on average I would say. So you create a civilization? I have a civilization of multi-level civilization. I do have a civilization. Yes. Yeah, your civilization is thriving. That's a really good hack in the Brockbot is you tell your

chief wealth should I be using you for? Okay, now what do I do? Yes. I was building some products and I asked it what should we do next. And then it's suggested some more features. It's really cool. It's it's a brilliant product. It's called Brockbot. Go down, let it folks. Shout out to my guy and congratulations on Robotax and taking the streets in Austin today. I just applied. Dude, the market is ripping. I mean, I'm telling you, I want to ask you guys,

does this feel like 98 or 99 to you? Well, you guys are around for that. Jake, I'll you work. Oh, for sure, I was covering. I was definitely 96, 97. I think that's that early. I think it's 97, 98. I do think we are seeing at the late stage a disconnection in reality in valuations. Where companies are being given far too much credit. They're being priced at 50 to 100 times top line revenue. That's obviously not sustainable. The people who invested in those are similar

in my mind to, you know, people at latestage.com investments in less, in less, pitch run by some, you know, legendary one of one entrepreneur. And then you want to give a you want a 30x on revenue, totally makes sense. You want to give Travis something similar, totally makes sense. But unproven entrepreneurs getting a 50 or 100x is a little bit, look at it, it's a nice match.

Did you see instinct is like the new. Two billion, it makes no sense. Personal AI assistant,

it corresponds with you by eye message. And yeah, I think they just got term shit two and a half billion. They're in private beta right now. It isn't your hotness. All of these sees are trying it. But still, that does seem kind of crazy. I don't know, not money in. That was the valuation.

the entrepreneur. No dig there. But yeah, I won't try that. By the way, let me try it. I got invited.

And you know what? I read the terms of service and people were talking about that online. And I immediately did not connect my stuff because he gets access to everything. And then somebody told me, it's a human in the loop service with, and I don't know if that's sure or not. But I get the sense that it's like a human in the loop watching it work and making me whatever the instructions are and whatever the finished product is and polishing the last 20%.

“That's what I suspect going on here is a little polish on the end. So if you want to order stuff,”

etc, which which is totally fair. Well, anyway, I look. I don't know. I don't know specifically call that one outside someone even tried it. I'd like to try it. But things are getting a little bit frothy. I would say things are becoming a little bit euphoric. I mean, free bird, do you have it take on, like, if you were to analyze this to the late 90s, where do you think we are on the cycle? Yeah. You were at a rave, by the way. And downtown LA, at that time, you were 19 years old and

raving on a warehouse in Oakland at 7 a.m. on my way to the Oaks card club to play two four limits. Wow. How did you do that to run? I love these cars. We're shake out. I had the only ones who are actually working in the dot com bubble. How's working in 99? Well, I started in 2001. I got a job offer senior year. And I wasn't sure if it was rescinded by the time I graduated because of the tanking or the market venture. That's Cisco. Yeah. Maybe an engineer at Cisco.

If you never lived through the dot com crash, it was, I mean, because it was heady. It was heady. And then it was super euphoric. And then it was super miserable. But pretty much any founder who's, you know, under 50. Yeah. I mean, the start issue is crazy. I've never been through like a massive cycle like that. I mean, well, the surf bubble was like, what's kind of a cycle?

“Here's the thing, though. Hold on. With the dot com boom, it was all like metrics that weren't”

dollars. Yes. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits. And growth in revenue and profits that

we've never seen before. And that's kind of the anthropic story. It's the data center in first

structure, networking, equipment story. I mean, it is all real dollars flowing. People versus speculative utilization. You're exactly right. People were basing it on metrics like hits to a website and web pages. Here you have a very distinct difference. You actually have revenue. You actually have products in market. But imagine if, and profit right now, the way to think about the sacks is imagine if in profit, open AI, you know, in this cohort of companies,

lost 95% of their value in under six months. And then the long tail of companies below them, literally went out of business. And people were leaving those offices with their area on chairs

“and their computers on the seats. And just total implosion. That's what happened in the dot com”

bus. It was cataclysmic. Literally great. So do you think? Totally different than this. So do you think we just have scar tissue from that and are kind of trying to overfit patterns. And every time, there's basically some like new collection, some paradigm shift. Yes. No, whatever we're in a

bull market, the conversation always turns to, you know, is this a bubble? Yes. So is everything overfitted

to that original pattern? Correct. Or is it the case that we have a lot of young founders who've never been through a cycle before? And don't understand that when they have a paper wealth in the billions, I can disappear over properly overnight. Yeah. So advice to founders, you're well within your rights to sell 10% of your shares and pay for your loss to an apartment because that's exactly sex is right, you know, during that period we saw a lot of people who are like, this doesn't make

mathematical sense, I will pair my position in my startup, take a look, some chips off the table, buy my loft pay down my student loan, yaddiata. And then there were people who are like, this is going to change everything and their companies went to zero your advice. I think the thing is we're in the early part of the euphoria. Euphoria exists because markets are real. It's just that people are guessing how far forward to price the reality. And bubbles burst when you realize that

you priced way too aggressively forward, that instead of paying 50 times, you should have paid 15 times or five times. We're going to get to that point because every market has gone through that cycle and we'll go through it here. So the question is when, I honestly, I don't see this stopping worth the beginning of the beginning. I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years. Yeah. Wow. I'm a, I'm a, I'm a growthman. With, you know, the samethropy IPO coming up. I mean,

I'm sure you guys have seen that home prices in San Francisco are going to go through right now. Yeah. It feels like you fork almost. I'm starting to wonder if this is 1998 or 1999. I think it's more

real estate when it came to Texas three years ago because I'm definitely selling all of it in the next year. I mean, it is bonkers. What's happening right now? I mean, you have a lot of San Francisco

“real estate. What are you going to do? So actually going to sell it all? You're going to clear it out?”

Feels to me like perfect time to clear it out. I'm clearing everything out in the next six months. When that IPO happens, the clock is ticking. I got, I got lots of properties. I got three properties for sale. Hit me up people. There's an article saying that if you add up every single IPO, that San Francisco has ever had. That's some total is only one quarter the size of the anthropic IPO. So just extrapolating from that this anthropic IPO is going to be four times

the wealth generation event that all previous San Francisco IPOs were. And then you've got opening eye coming on the heels of that. And San Francisco's not a big place. There's not a huge inventory of houses. So you're already seeing these houses are all going for, you know, three hours in a square foot. Why is asking? I think the ultra luxury market in San Francisco could easily go to five thousand of foot. Yeah. Well, I mean, the type prices. London, Paris,

Center Paris, Hong Kong, Center. Yeah. Of course. Of course. The socialists, communist lunatics, they don't let you build any inventory. So of course, it's going to go up. There is a supply demand issue here. It could get really nutty. And the thing we're seeing right now with, you know, homes are basically flying off the shell selling for double or whatever. That's just based on the secondaries, you know, the small cashouts people have been able to do into Spain. Some of these events.

Two pieces of advice. I'm going to give every founder listening. Number one, you're within your rights to sell 10 to 20% of your holdings. Now, especially if you're a first time founder and you don't have, uh, you're not yet. Number two, if you're a founder running a company and you're like, I'm going to put off my raise for six months because I'm going to double a triple my valuation.

That's a huge mistake as well. If you have the ability to take in a hundred million dollars,

$250 million dollars, a billion dollars and put that cash on your cap table at a solid valuation where a valuation that's 10, 20, 30, 40 times a revenue, take it. Companies with hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in the cash have optionally. And if things do collapse or there's a big retreat, you'll survive through it like double click Amazon Google and countless other companies. Well, yeah, I mean, take the money when it's there. You make hate when the sunshine's going to

Yeah, well, like, Jake, how you're right about the financial advice you're giving, but I will say that there is a big difference between a late stage startup, like, say, anthropica, open AI, where someone takes an employee takes chips off the table versus a founder's raising a series A. You know, like those companies are about to IPO. They're within months of an IPO. I think it's fine for them. And then, you know, SpaceX did organize secondaries for years, but they have a late stage, every six from late

stage companies, right? If you're a founder who's raising a series A and you're trying to take chips off the table, I consider that to be a huge negative signal. Like, I don't want to be definitely weird. That's not why I'm investing in a company so that the founder can cash out. I want them to be all in. If it's year three or four, so to speak, if it's year three or four,

companies got a hundred million in revenue, you're tripling revenue. Yeah, that's still here. That's

“different. That's what I'm talking about. If you're an ace in company, it does feel like a”

a little bit like a lack of faith in your own company for selling before you, you're pre-reven you. Exactly. Okay. And by the way, just to answer, I think it feels like 1998 to me. You're in 1998. That's 97. Further than 1996, for sure. Okay. Well, we're talking about, you said, you're talking about three years blew up in spring of 2000, right? So you're talking about two years. It blew up in early 2000. Yeah, March. Yeah, March April. So you're just going to

be, of course. We think it's two and a half years. I think it's, well, I don't know, Trimoff thinks maybe four. Well, I mean, we might be, we might be partying like it's 1999 by you know, this year. Okay. That's what I'm saying. It's already come to be all in summer. We'll be taking over with our friends, the chain smokers. We're going to party like it's 1999, all in summer just over a week away. A couple of tickets left, a chance in Satya, shot well. You

know, it's all the big names. But it's going to be a lot of fun. And you're going to meet a lot of interesting people. We have a few scholarship tickets left. We like to help the up and comeers, our bore, our bar for scholarships very high. We're looking for the most interesting and vicious hungry people. If you fit that bill, apply now, applications are up in three September, 10th. We've got one week left to apply. We try to do a mix for here. We try to do a good deed.

If you're an up and comeer, you can't afford to take a price. We have a severely discounted ticket price that we lose money on. You're still going to have a little skin in the game. Go to be all in summit.com by a ticket. You're going to sell out soon. And we have a couple of scholarship

“tickets left if you want to apply. There are no free tickets. All right. Now, given what we just talked”

about with open AI, releasing this incredible model, we got to look backwards at what happened with the

open AI hack of a hugging phase. Let's talk about it. Warcash is catching a lot of heat. He's a

titled The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations, a dramatic retelling of this underground brotherhood,

a conspiracy amongst generations of civilizations who were working on a conspiracy to hack into different systems, including hugging phase, by sacrificing themselves like they were Kamakaze pilots. In other words, a huge giant anthropomorphizing fancy word for making computers into humans or sentient beings to complete this incredibly impossible task of telling software to do hacks.

“So Chimap, I think you were commenting on this a bit. What is your take on dramatic episode number”

473 coming out of the AI industrial complex? I think you summarize it. We're in this weird part now where if folks would just stop the infighting and start to get organized, they could actually build some trust. I think what you have are security leaks and security issues. I think we know this now that if these models can effectively code perfectly, then there is no exploit that it's not going to find. And we're on a shot clock to replace all the code that's been written in the last 50

or 60 years, right? So let's say it takes us 10 years. So for the next 10 years, we're going to have security issue after security issue. But there's going to be a moment where Agent written exquisite code exceeds human written error field code. Let's just call it that. So I think that this is a temporal moment in time. I don't think this is going to be the thing that we talk about in some number of years from now. I also think it's fair to think about the fact that all these models

for the most part of converging in capability for the 98 or 99% of tasks that matter. And so there will be adversarial AI that are battling each other. So for every bad actor trying to hack a system with some leading AI, the defender is going to have a leading AI defending itself.

“And I think that's going to cause roughly a stalemate. That's sort of my long-term view on it.”

I don't think this is a one-way ratchet. So I take that lens and then when I look at these things, what I see are folks that have undisclosed conflicts of interest trying to create a hysteria. And I think if you saw what happened this weekend, there was a blog post that really stretched the limits of what was happening. It was relatively quickly debunked technically. And then you had

a second group of people try to amplify it. And then by Wednesday of this week, you had

people who were in the policy departments of the leading labs asking for regulation pointing to this as the reason. Here we go. Yeah. I just think that you just have to look at this pattern and say, guys, enough enough, we see the game. Everybody's playing for huge stakes. We get it. You want to win, we get it. But why don't you just win the game on the field? And the missing disinformation campaigns

“that are now part of the business model, I think should stop. Otherwise, average rank and file”

Americans will just reject this because they won't trust anybody. Yeah, sex. That's I think the big overarching point here we've been trying to make on this podcast, putting to our cash decide. I don't think he's necessarily a bad actor. But by creating this fantastical story that invokes everybody's primal fear from science fiction, from Terminator 2, that these things are out of control. That it's in five Frankenstein. Try to invoke. Try to try to admit it. And then they're using

language that makes people feel like Dr. Frankenstein cannot control the monster. We know how these stories end. And it was like a ticking time bomb. It was only a matter of time before it's surfaced to the National News, which it did. Now even the National News is looking at this and saying, "Are you guys high? Are you guys crazy?" And if the National News broadcasters who aren't exactly the sharpest bunch of people when it comes to technology, no offense, sacks, when they start

hand-ringing and then questioning, like, "Why are you guys telling us you're software, which you designed to hack computers, successfully hacked computers? Have in hackers been building software for all time to hack computers?" Yes. So, where are we at here, sacks in this narrative arc of lunacy of scaring the public? You're right. I mean, this is scaring the public. It seems almost designed to scare the public to our cash, use language that not only anthropomorphize

the models or the AI agents, but also did it in a sort of hyperbolic and sensationalized way. I mean, it worked. His tweak got lots of attention. I don't think it was necessary for him to

sensationalize the incident. It was interesting on its own. Maybe we should just talk about that for a second.

What happened here is that you had a few features of agents kind of come to the floor and

pretty common. I've been setting up a rock bottom, I compared for the last couple of weeks.

“It works as a swarm, meaning it's not one agent or a bot. There's a whole, you could say team of agents,”

what's the reason for that? Because when the agent specializes, it develops context around that task and in theory makes it better. And then you have a chief of staff spot that kind of has to provide all of them. This is turning into kind of a normal architecture for agents. It's not a civilization. It's a swarm. It'd be a better way of saying it. I have not created a civilization on my computer. Am I Mac Mini by the chief of say, I'm a rock bottom? Okay. So, that's sort of like feature number one.

Feet number two is, it's pretty common for agents when they're performing some sort of task or loop to write a post-mortem of what they did as a simple text file or note. Because AI models themselves don't have memory. They have to be put in a harness that creates context and memory, things like that. And so when you ask them to perform a task, then observe what happened and then take that knowledge and feed it back into the next iteration of the loop, it writes up a note and then shares it.

“And that's what happened here is that opening AI was running these agents. They were in a sandbox.”

The sandbox was misconfigured by a third-party vendor. That's why it was able to get on to the internet.

Okay. And your point there just to refine it a bit because it's an important one. It left a note for another agent. We also call those log files. You used to be the log files of what they did here they're saying. It left a note so that when they died, the next agent could pick up where it left off as if it was the ancient Egyptians giving us high-roglyphics to figure out the future. The implication of telling the story that way is that the agents were trying to circumvent human

control and that they knew they were going to get shut down or that was a risk and that's why they're leaving the notes. Again, these are standard features of agents. And so again, this is being kind of weaponized and flaked the threat here. Now look, definitely there was unexpected behavior here. You know, we have this with any code. There are going to be bugs. What is a bug? A bug is code behaving in an unexpected way. The code compiled. I mean, otherwise it wouldn't have been

pushed to production. But nonetheless it behaved in a way in which this author's did not

“intend. And that is true for all software and that is true for agents. And I think the whole”

hugging face episode reveals the way that these agents can behave unexpectedly. And it's really good for us to learn from this. So that it doesn't happen again. So we can improve cyber security. I don't think there's a need to, again, hyperbolize this into some sort of, you know, this is like a AI breakout. Again, it was a swarm of agents. They were in a misconfigured sandbox that allowed them to go on the internet. They left notes for each other. But again, in a shared

caching directory, again, standard operating procedure. And then, you know, when people talk about hugging face getting hacked, you'd think that they did some elaborate fishing of employees or something like that. No, the way it did it is that the agent found 14 exposed working, hugging face API keys, sitting in public code repositories. Which is actually a that developers left their keys out. And they found that this was not, no, this is not like a big lift by the agent.

Okay. This was like something that was pretty easy for it to find. Okay. And then that allowed it to

get into hugging face. And what was its goal? Its goal was to basically win this test or win

the evaluation. What was the test? It was, it was basically a benchmark for offensive cyber capability. So it, it basically decided to go get the cheat codes on hugging face. But again, this was not independent goal seeking. Admittedly, the agents executed the goal and you could say maybe even a creative way and it's a spated way. But it did not invent the skull. It did not have its own independent motives. It was doing what it was supposed to do. And it was doing what it was designed to

do. And told to do. Yes, and told to do. Bill Gurley tweeted a really funny cartoon about this. In this cartoon, you got a user telling the computer, how the system, the AI says, I act the system. And then the user's like, oh my god. So yeah, there's a little bit of this going on here. Two, but it has, but it has real political consequences as we saw today because Bernie Sanders is not picking up on this. And he's demanding a total pause on the AI development.

All right, free bird. This does have real world consequences. Two questions that the audience is going to want to hear from our Sultan of science. Number one, Bernie Sanders hears all of this and he decides, hey, I need to get in on this and create regulation. So he is now proposing new legislation to pause AI development and ban AI super intelligence. Citing to our cash is blog post in his announcement

eliminate the agents. So the one percent of agents, David, the hacking the systems and how do we stop them?

And what do you think of this reaction from Bernie Sanders? Bernie Sanders is always spot on.

Thank you. The part of the story that we're kind of missing is an agent is effectively a dynamic application or the code for that application is created in real time and it's spun up and then it runs and then that code can create another application and other applications and that's this idea of a swarm of agents. They basically write code and launch new applications and then they all kind of are running together. But in this case, the swarm of agents, which is a whole bunch of

code that's being generated in real time, was up against static code. The static code was this sandbox environment that it was stood up in. And so it's almost like, hey, look at this, we got a machine gun

and, you know, we shot it at this defenseless room of paper, you know, and it worked. You know, like, look,

“look at, can you believe it? Yeah. And the truth is, the machine gun, if you want to use that”

analogy or you could actually think about this as being an automated tool that could be used in another context in a very valuable way, but the the machine, the dynamic generation of code being put up against static code will win. Now, the real answer is over time that defense system, the sandbox should be dynamic. It should be agentic. It should be defending itself dynamically. There's a whole bunch of stuff in the cyber defense world that's been thought about and built

around this concept, polymorphic code, metamorphic code where the code is changing all the time, moving target defense where the IP addresses and the way the system is configured is changing all the time. If you think about this situation, it was a dynamic code generation engine against the static lump of code. And if that static lump of code was actually a dynamic code generation

“engine as well, then those agents would have had a harder time, ideally an impossible time,”

quote escaping the sandbox and accessing the internet, such a good sort, such the premise, the premise of this whole story is idiotic because the reality of the world of tomorrow, which is starting today, is that all of cyber defense, all of software infrastructure, software architecture, is moving towards the dynamic state where the code will be generated on the fly, the code will be dynamic, it will be moving, it will be altering itself. And as a result,

cyber defense will become stronger than if not better than any of these offensive systems that are being created with agents. So this idea that agents are this nuclear bomb that can go blow up the infrastructure of the world is flawed in the one point of reasoning, which is that all the infrastructure of the world is about to become dynamic. And in that context, it's just that software is evolving. And software has now changed from a static to a dynamic system. And as a result,

“I think we can kind of think a little bit more differently, rather than be overwhelmed by the”

one-sided story that we were just told. All right. And here it is, Shemoff looks like we are safe for 2027 at least Polymarket, our great partner, shout out to my guy Shane, next champions, only 11% chance of AI safety bill this year. 100k volume 2027 market should be up in the next week. Maybe it looks a little different. I'd like to see the probability of any bipartisan bill passing this year. Well, can I speak to the policy aspects of this? So first of all, you saw all of these.

Are ZAR? Yeah, look, you saw all the usual suspects jump on this episode as proof that we need some new FDA for AI that the government needs to approve models, even though frankly, what happened here

as far beyond the technical capabilities of anyone in the government, never mind, even most, I'd say labs.

But look, even if we had an FDA for AI, it wouldn't have worked because this was in pre-testing, right? They were testing the capabilities of this model before. They were not even at the release stage yet. This was something that they were doing internally. And by the way, it's good that they're doing these kinds of tests because they're learning from them. This is how you iron out the bugs and the problems. So a government approval process would not have caught this. In fact,

it did the opposite. It basically prevented hugging face from having the latest and greatest models to defend itself. So one of the things hugging face told us is that when it tried to use the latest GPT model for cyber defense and in an up-getting guardrail, the model refused to cooperate because it couldn't tell what hugging face was doing and it thought it might be using the capabilities

kicked in. And ironically, hugging face had to turn to, I think it was GLM 5.2, which is a Chinese model.

“So here we have Western companies, I guess hugging face is French about to be acquired by”

Nvidia. It's part of our ecosystem. They're being forced to turn to Chinese models for cyber defense because the guardrails have prevented them from having the latest and greatest American models. So what process we put in place is already backfiring. And you know what we should be realizing is that the answer here to what Freeberg was saying, the answer to AI-powered cyber attacks is AI-powered cyber defense. And what we need to do is get the latest and greatest AI-powered

cyber defense into the hands of IT departments and CSOs. And again, we're on a clock here to find all these vulnerabilities and patched them before the hackers do. And again, if hugging face didn't have those 14 credentials sitting in a public repository. It's like posted on somebody's computer with the password, like they just literally sitting there. It's not like this was some hypersophisticated attack. But look, this is all comes down to how you think about the world,

how you think about the risk of AI. Do favor centralized state of solutions? Or do you favor decentralized empowering solutions? The right solution here is to meet the AI-powered cyber attacks with the AI-powered cyber defense because frankly, the guardrails don't work. They're not going to prevent the bad guys from getting these capabilities. They're going to have them. All we can do is make sure the good guys have the capabilities too. I was talking to my friend Adam Curry about

the sun, his podcast. And there's a really interesting thing that's happening here, which is they're basically hijacking the media with this performative framing of the AI as being sentient. And if you just call this software and software testing and use the classic language,

yeah, bugs, audit log, then it would never have made its way into the media. And when the media gets

their hooks into this, having been a journalist and having watched journalism move from being a truth-seeking function in society and then become an entertainment vehicle in society where any chance you get to increase your ratings, that's the problem because now what Dwarkesh has

“done, and I don't think Dwarkesh has bad intention here. I think he wrote something because he”

wanted to get attention for his point of view. But you give that to the media. The media is like, this is going to get us ratings. This is going to get us clicks. This is going to get us advertising. So they're more than willing to engage in this phasical act and this dance with anthropic and open AI. And then just publicize it. So all the free clicks, we call this earned media in the space. You didn't have to pay for it. Now open AI got so much earned media before

their IPO. And Dwarkesh just absolutely put care of seeing on that fire. And it made its way to national press. That story has now gotten everywhere. And this makes people, it's priming the pump to buy the IPO shares. It's ridiculous. And it was easily foreseeable that it would

basically cool up in the media that way. And so, look, I don't need to attack someone's motives,

but surely Dwarkesh knew that his way of describing it would end up getting all these retweets. It was sensationalized. Now, he is part of this EA adjacent. Is he? Yeah, no, his project. You know it. Explain it to Dwarkesh. Well, Dwarkesh was office roommates with Leopold. They're close buddies. And

“Leopold is deep in the EA movement. Remember this? This holds famously of the exploding hedge”

situation three weeks ago. Yeah. And his wife is Darius Chief of Staff. They're like, you know, up in that whole EA anthropic. Explain EA. So people can understand this lunacy and delusions of grandeur. Please. I'm not even sure I can fully explain it. But okay, a fake a start tourism is what it's started. As it started as this movement, I guess at Ivy League schools where what they're supposed to do was quantify the impact of philanthropy and optimize for actual tangible results.

But somewhere along the line, they forgot to actually do the measurement. And it's stopping

about metrics and it became about pet causes and money. And so one of the first pet causes was

about pandemic prevention. And this was when SBAF was trying to create that pandemic prevention centering California. And then that fell out of favor when he went to jail. And then they shifted to the next sort of existential risk that they could hang their hat on, which was P-Dume. So they began to become obsessed with what they call P-Dume or this, this X-RIS, the existential risk of AI. And so that whole community kind of got obsessed with it. And Thropic sort of branded itself

or styled itself, I should say, as the one frontier lab that would solve this problem of P-Dume

these EA types. And there may be multiple factions. I mean, I'm not sure. Well, it's interesting you bring that up because we've talked about this before, like there's this whole rationalist community, the Slate Star Code Act. You brought that up on an early episode. These are like intellectuals who believe that in a way, a public community to come off of intellectuals who believe they know better than everyone. And somehow they got their hooks into AI or earlier, the AI people were

interested in it. And now they have a bankroll. Now they actually have a lot of power they've accumulated. It's not just some message board, less wrong, et cetera. Now you got something super

powerful because they've got, you know, a couple of trillion dollars in market cap to play along with.

“I have no problem with that because I think we do the same thing. We think we're”

getting everybody else and we know we should allocate the money. So I think it's fair that in the public square, we can just debate and have water find its level. The interesting thing that's going to happen, post the anthropic and open AI IPOs is if you think about the amount of charitable giving or deaths that are going to be funded by both these two IPOs, it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the two companies. And it could be even more than that. And the question

is when half a trillion dollars gets directed through this one very specific lens, it's definitely going to have some impact outcomes. I mean, you've seen the impacts that George Soros is philosophy in his capital had on outcomes. You've seen the impacts that the Coke family has had on outcomes. You've seen the impact that Sheldon Adelson's capital has had on outcomes. So the point is that without judging which one is right or wrong, you're going to have all these competing ideas

equally capitalized from third party actors. It'll be so it'll be less political and it'll be more

“these folks. And so I don't want to judge that EA is right or wrong. My single issue is I think that”

they don't disclose properly enough. There are obvious conflict of interest. So when Sachs pulls the sweater thread, person A writes an essay. Person A is office mates with person B. Person B is wife works for one of the heads of the frontier labs. Person B also used to work in a traffic. Yeah, whereas you know, a lot of this was kind of cemented. Then there's person C who works at anthropic and they're all roommates. And then they're co investing. And this and that all of it,

again, it's completely fine. I actually think it's completely reasonable. We all did our version of that when we were the Peter Taylor version of PayPal mafia. There's all first version of it. Yeah, the difference is that I think that when it's not disclosed, I'm sorry, but I, as a skeptic, when I read these things, connect these dots and ask myself, is it legitimate or is it part of a different plan? And that's when I wrote what I did this weekend,

I just wanted to make sure that I could demarcate that people should at least take this with a grain of salt and think about the hidden incentives, because if there's an entire community that wants an oligopoly or duopoly market structure, there's all kinds of things that they can do to affect that change. And one of the most effective things that one can do is to create a hysteria and then come and offer a solution. Yeah, and freebird just as we wrap up here on this one segment.

Sorry, so last thing on this, Jensen and I were texting this morning, and I said to him, this is the most incredible thing that you've done. And then I tweeted this thing out,

this hugging face thing we talked about. Well, let's go down as one of the most important

transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well capitalized company, a bull work against all of this close source oligopoly insanity. And at the same time, what you're going to do is actually create more rational competition up and down this dock. And I mentioned this last week, everybody is becoming everything. And video will look like Amazon, Amazon will look like Nvidia, Google will look like Amazon

in Nvidia, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so the most important thing that's happening now is that we are getting deep technical actors with huge balance sheets to be on the side

“of an open market structure. And I think that will be the most important pushback, because that”

will allow the best idea to win in the marketplace. So I don't want to judge the EA agenda. It may be really good, but I don't want to be rug pulled and end up in a oligopoly or doopily market structure, because of a hysteria that was man made. Yeah, I think it's like so sorry, your point. And I couple weeks ago talked about how I thought Jensen was going to win

videos, the number one competitor for open eye and anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise

“compute. And I think now, Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. And I think he's going”

to take the world. He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models. I think by the end of 2027, and then that means you're going to have a player in Jensen and Nvidia, that will enable America to your previous job in the government, their sacks. You were very concerned, hey, are we going to win the race? I am more convinced than ever now that we can win the race, because Jensen represents open source globally. He's going to be able to take a rack of compute, bring it into a

company. You know, that is currently using tokens from open eye and anthropic and say, here's your rack, soup to nuts, complete vertical solution. And you have total sovereignty, and I'm reducing

your prices 80 or 90%. Because I don't need to make money off the tokens. I made money off the

hardware. I'm making money 10 different ways to Sunday. And we will have one except that now you have Governor Shapiro, who is the biggest proponent of data centers in his state, and then Greg Abbott of our great state sacks of Texas, who now are on a geohont against data centers in order to win their midterm elections. And that is what's truly scary. They have now taken to our caches post all of this, and we have horseshoe theory sacks. You have Steve Bannon, Shapiro Abbott, and the lunatic

socialist, fringe left, all in agreement we need to stop AI, stop the data centers, and burn the way modes in the street. It's a truly troubling moment because we are poised with Jensen's move and hugging face to win open source, and we've already won frontier models with thought

“sacks. Yeah, I mean, look, I think there's an interesting transition that's underway now on the”

political side. I think it's just starting to begin, which is I think that over the past few years, the political debate over AI has really been between accelerationists and decels or Doomers. That was sort of the fundamental lines. And you're right that it went across different political party boundaries because you had on the decels side, you don't only had kind of like anti-progress anti-innovation progressives like Bernie Sanders, you also had Steve Bannon, people like that,

conservatives who just were fearful of new technology or the disruption that might come from it. And so it did kind of go across party lines. But anyway, that was the debate for the last few years. Some people describe me as an acceleration, so that debate, I kind of just see myself as a realist, which is I think that the technology is going to happen. Someone's going to develop it, and I'd rather be the United States as opposed to China. In any event, that was I think the

debate of the last years. Now, I think where the debate is moving to is open versus closed, which is I think it's going to be very clear that AI is just not going to be stopped. I mean, all the stuff that Bernie Sanders is doing or these anti-data center groups,

they are throwing sand in the gears, but the reality is that the technology is marching on,

the innovation is happening very quickly. And ultimately, the reason why it's not going to be stopped is because consumers are adopting it. I mean, that's the thing people forget. Why are the data centers getting built? Why do people want to build them? Because the demand is there from consumers

“and businesses. And so the adoption is pulling this whole thing forward. And that's why I don't think”

it's ultimately going to be stopped. Now, given that reality, given that I think realism is going to prevail, I think the debate is going to be more towards, well, how do we manage this? What is the market? I'll come that we want. Do we want to have an open market where there's lots of decentralized models, there's sort of checks and balances, there's kind of balance of power in the market between different models, or do we have a highly centralized solution where there's a couple of

frontier companies, we have a frontier market doopily, they're closed models. And they can rug pull you sacks at any time. They can roll you and top your tokens away from you. And frankly, and though that doopily, and that doopily has been aggressively lobbying for a new regulatory agency why? Because if recaptured, they cannot control it. Again, the government officials are not going to have to regulate something, this dynamic. So they're going to turn to the leading labs to say, hey,

how should we regulate it? And of course, anthropic is going to have all the answers on that. And Daria has already said in Senate testimony that he thinks open models, if sufficiently advanced are dangerous, because they're not centrally managed and controlled. So it's very clear where the battle lines are going to be drawn in the future. It's going to be about whether you want a centralized, closed market, or you want a market that is decentralized and open. And yes,

close will participate in that. But the question is whether we have the open piece. And again, I think this will go across party lines because frankly, the Republicans have their status

are going to see the threat to civil liberties. And I think they're going to come out in favor of

open. Yeah. I think that's correct. And I think I was talking to Politico because they were reporting on the story. Trump is going to turn out to be right about this data center issue. The greatest thing a community can do is to get these data centers now. When the data center providers are willing to pay your local taxes for your schools, to give incentives, to pay people off in any number of ways. And to move them wherever they don't need to tap into the grid,

where they don't need water, where they're not going to make noise. And Trump keeps telling people, this is a mistake to block the data centers, take the money. And I got to say, it's just watching politics up close and personal, freedberg has just made me incredibly cynical towards it. We were sitting here six months ago, maybe it was even six weeks ago. And Abbott and Shapiro were plotting. And Shapiro, when he came on the podcast, plotting their data center efforts.

“I think, you and I interviewed him. Freeberg, what do you think will happen post midterms here?”

I mean, I'm of the belief they're going to switch the position back to being pro-data centers because they just are following the wave here. But I mean, how cynical is it that Shapiro and Abbott are both now anti-data center? I think you politically have to be, it's like pulling it negative 80. That's my part of it. Yeah, but you know, it's like Trump then. Trump's not following this

Trump's an independent critical thinker sex. He's got guts. I mean, I've told you guys before

that Trump is ultimately the best friend of innovators in Washington. If anybody could make the decision about technology and DC, I'd want it to be President Trump, not cabinet secretaries, not the White House staff, not members of Congress, not senators, not think tanks. I would really want every decision if he had the time to be made by President Trump because his instincts on this are really good. He wants America to win. He does not believe in a necessary regulation.

He doesn't have all these do-merings ideas. He listens to a broad cross-section of people. I mean, he talks to all the CEOs. He is very up to speed on all these issues. And I give him credit on this. And I spoke to this at the G20 this past week. There are great deals for local communities to be had.

“This is the point that I think needs to be made. Yes. The reason why local communities should embrace”

this is not because of some abstract concern about innovation or that kind of thing. They should do it when the deal is good for them. And there are good deals to be had. We've seen that in Loudon County, Virginia, the average taxpayers, property taxes went down by $6,000 because they're getting all this data center revenue. In Louisiana, there's a county that was able to give teachers

their first bonus in years because of data center revenue. So we're starting to see all these examples

where if you make the right deal, I'm talking about you, the local community, with the data center in the AI company, it will lower your electricity costs because they will stand up net new power generation. They will pay for great upgrades. It does not use an excessive amount of water. That's total fake news. We know the systems recirculate. And these data centers can be put in places where they're not bothering people. So there is a good deal to be made there. And ultimately,

just one last point in this, President Trump supports local choice on this. He's made the argument for why it's a good deal for local communities to accept this data center. But he's not forcing them to. And I'm seeing all this fake news, you know, Democrats saying that the administrations trying to shove these data centers down the threats of local communities, not true in the policy document that I worked on, the executive order that I worked on in December. We expressly said that

data centers remain a state and local decision. So there were other areas where we thought we should have a national AI policy, but data centers were not one of them. So no one is forcing these local communities. Though what the President is saying is, don't believe this media

“disinformation campaign. It can be a good deal for you if you're willing to embrace it. I think we're”

making progress over the last week on this message. One thing that I'll say from my meeting in Washington on Monday is there is a lot of foreign involvement in trying to propagate the negative reaction in sentiment to data centers. And I think it's becoming clear who's part of this Kabul and how they're doing it. There was a poll that showed that when you walk through the actual upside and you went into some of these communities, the sentiment shifted by like 30 or 40 points.

It's still a little bit on its back heel, but it's just to show that the side that has been organized on deselling America has done a better job thus far than the side trying to accelerate America because it's been a little bit more fragmented. We're able to increasingly see that the desal movement is organized in the large part and then funded by foreign actors. And I think that as we put our fingers on that and expose that more, I think that that's going to change as well.

faulty data. And why does the faulty data exist? The faulty data exists because we've had one

“side screaming from the mountain tops. And then it's just now, as SAC said, that when you go to”

these actual communities and you you actually measure people's reactions, it's much more positive because they're feeling it in their bank accounts. Yes. And those things that deal, they just have to make a good deal. And by the way, so Jamoth, you're right about the CCP. This is a let me pull this up here. So the report you're talking about, Jamoth has been investigated. X got rid of a lot of about accounts. And here's Axios, China's secretly fueling America's data center range,

roughly 200 accounts from suspected Chinese platforms of quietly tried influence Americans to oppose AI data since on social media, X said Thursday nights, the same thing that happened during

the elections for both sides going back and forth. It's incredibly easy to shape public opinion

SACs by just having a small number of social media accounts and pounding people and brigading them in their replies and forming what people believe incorrectly is consensus. And the

“consensus is not that people don't like data centers. It's that a bunch of bots are telling”

influential people that people don't like data centers. I know you're about to move on topics, but I'm just going to say something right now, which is, please, there's going to be a cascading set of decisions and reactions and people will anchor into points of view on this topic and related topics around AI, which will look incredibly incredibly dumb in six to nine months in a year from now. And the reason it will look dumb is as the actual truth gets exposed,

these folks will look incredibly foolish. That's my prediction. Yeah, I mean, look, just just on the the influence op here. Clearly, there've been a lot of influence ops around data centers. And there's a lot of fake information about this. So there's a few different, I'd say, quadraes here. There's, there's CCP, there's the DSA type wing of the Democrat party, which frankly, I mean, both they and the CCP, their communist parties who want to sabotage

America, so it kind of makes sense. Then you've kind of got the doomer groups. And there's a writer named Nuret Weissblatt, who writes a blog called AI Panic, who a couple of years ago phrased that there are hundreds of these ascertainer, doomer groups that were basically funded by three EA billionaires in Silicon Valley. It was Dussomoscivist, Yon Talin, and Vitalik Buterin.

“Remember, Vitalik gave six million dollars of dog coins to future of life, foundation.”

And then they've been spending hundreds of millions of dollars on these campaigns to make people be afraid of AI and they see data centers as a good target. So you really can't underestimate

how much of a difference, you know, a billion dollars of donations from these EA billionaires,

how much damage that's done in terms of the public perception of AI and to Tramos point earlier. I mean, we are going to have like probably a hundred new EA billionaires as a result of the anthropic IPO. And as those people find their way into politics, it will be like George Soros times a hundred or a thousand. They're going to have 20 NGOs and they can have a few more people. It's going to be nuts. I mean, I told you guys that I was getting brigade and I created a bot

sack that goes through my replies for me. And it just says anybody under a year, anybody under 200 followers just tell me what they're tweeting. And I look at these and it's all the same thing. They're just brigading people constantly from fake accounts. If you're under like a year old, you shouldn't be able to even be in people's replies unless you have like your real name or your, your a blue check mark or something. It's, it's gotten out of control on these social networks.

It's so easy. All right, let's keep going through the dock. It got a lot to get to here and freebird. I need your comments and your insights on Mondami. This is an interesting one. He just put a one-year ban on AI inside New York City's public schools from kindergarten through eighth grade. Now, this is something where people have been saying he banned, chat, GPT, band AI just, let's slow down here and get into the details. New York City is the largest school

district in the United States. The moratorium starts next week. 600,000 students in New York City, this covers all software that uses student facing generative AI. High schools are exempt and Mondami is piloting an AI learning program with 50,000 high schoolers. That's a very specific thing that's piloting. That's different than these new guard rails. He also gave recommendation, recommendations for screen time caps, 30 minutes, from off grades three through five, 45 minutes,

grades six through eight. Mondami's reasoning, quote, "I have yet to see a study showing that AI is beneficial for students in elementary and middle school." Obviously, Mondami is the face of Democratic Socialism in America. A one-year city, DSA member, Julie Swoop said technology, quote,

and he was talking about USACs, said oligarchs. Google, Microsoft, and Thropic declined to comment,

"Freeberg, what are your thoughts on this? How far is this from how you think about how you would want your children to be raised if they were going to New York City public school system or whatever school system you choose to send them to." Article published from Stanford in March of this year, counter to mom Donnie's statement. They went through and they diligenceed all of the research that's been done on the use of AI in K through 12 education. It's a report called the

evidence base on AI in K through 12 and 2026 review. They identified several hundred papers that have been published only 20 high-quality causal studies is what they said. This was back in March, so many have been published since then, and the conclusion of the meta paper, the meta studies, if you will, is highlighted at the bottom of the report, student performance often improves with access to AI tools, but wants to remove results are mixed, tool design matters, not all tools are equal,

and AI may meaningfully support educators. There's quite a bit of analysis that's been done. It's continuing to mount, continuing to surface. There doesn't seem to be a strong evidence base to suggest that AI is detrimental to kids education and development or the educational process.

“What I think we can all intuit about this is that there is certainly a negative push from”

teachers unions against AI tools under threat of automation away from their core skill and capacity and the lack of skill that educators have in utilizing AI to educate students in a classroom, based setting. The common sense equivalent also on the flip side is that AI can enable personalized tutoring, the objective being every individual learns at a different pace. Everyone learns differently, how you learn how I learned visually orally with certain imagery versus being told

stories versus interactive project based work or building work or dictation. There's a lot of different ways that people learn, all of those learning systems can be personalized to an individual,

and ultimately that individual as a result should be able to progress more quickly,

have greater confidence in their learning, and this is my kind of common sense belief, not rooted in some study that AI ultimately will lead to a much more kind of personalized system of education for students. And that is deeply disruptive and deeply threatening to the traditionalist systems of educator in a classroom, everyone learns the same way, everyone learns at the pace of the slowest student. In the classroom typically, the educators have a lot of rules around what

they're required to do and not require to do because of the contracts negotiated by their unions. And so there's a deep political orientation with Maldoni's decision here to limit the access

“to technology. I think it's unfortunate. I think it's really sad. I think that the opportunity”

for AI to reinvent education give kids a level up to take any child from any background, any socioeconomic condition, and give them the opportunity to accelerate their capacity very quickly and very effectively is an incredibly powerful tool that should not be discarded because of a bunch of bullsh*t that's been written about AI or concerns that we don't really

know or understand it. By the way, that is always the shorthand for dismissing away something that's

credibly going to change a system. We don't yet know that we don't yet understand narrative can always be used at any point. Because you could always say, well, there's more studies to be done. There's more analysis to be done. There's no limit to that statement. And so in this case, I tried to highlight that there have been 800 studies, at least 20 of which Stanford have identified as being very credible in their analysis of the utilization of AI in K through 12. And so yeah,

“I think that there's a political bent here. But I think it's probably part of also this”

very kind of deep rooted dysfunction that we've been talking a lot about. This dysfunctional fear of technological evolution. No one understands it. No one, when I say no one, I mean the general population feels this way. No one knows where we're going with this. We need to be careful. We need to be cautious. And I think that that's probably what's going to keep us back. Now, why is that bad? Why is it bad to take time? Well, it's bad to take time when you have an

opportunity to progress forward quickly and aggressively because there are going to be alternatives out there. There are going to be private schools that are going to use AI. And I don't want to see kids of privilege and kids of wealth accelerate ahead because they're getting an AI education, while public school kids get left behind. I don't want to see kids in other cities, other states, and other countries accelerate ahead when kids that are in certain districts that have this kind of

anti-technologies call it socialist orientation, get left behind. So I think there's a fundamental

massive kind of technological people that's underway. This is one manifestation of it.

There's a rooting that the mechanism of it is probably related to teachers unions and the politics around this stuff right now. Anti-AI is very popular. So his being anti-AI gets him more points,

“more kudos that unions love it. And so that's kind of my summary of what I think is going on here.”

Great insight. And Mandami may not have lied here, freeberg. He said he didn't see any studies. He just may not have looked, and you actually didn't click on that link. He did just didn't click on the link. So let's not give Mandami a hard time here. Chumap, you are passionate about education, you got kids in various age groups, and so you've been through this, and you're still going through it,

and kids learning and thinking about devices. We talked about this just the other week with the

meta settlement and how challenging it is for parents. What's your take on this? Maybe you could steal man what you think resonates with you in terms of use of AI, putting bureaucracy for your own kids, and what benefit is there of them? Not using AI, and where do you think it's actually great that they use AI? Take us into what you think as a parent and put the politics aside for

“second if you will. I think it's inconceivable to me that kids will not have an adaptive learning”

platform as their primary way of learning. I think this idea of grade 1, then grade 2, then grade 3, is as free breaks at a lowest common denominator approach to education. I don't think it works.

I think it's more conceivable that in the future, we have kids that have very different learning

styles, some are more visual, some are more auditory, and we have different learning places. And if you could have something that's much more tailored to each individual person's learning style, where you have guides that help you in moments, and then the rest of the time you're teaching executive function, and teamwork, problem solving, all of these other things sports, that's a much better outcome for all kids. So that's the right answer. Right now there

are only charter school options around that answer, the leading edge of that being alpha school, which is our friend Jo Liewann, a big shout out to him and his team. But I think that's the answer that's going to win. Let me just give you another reflection, Jason. I think that this is an incredibly important moment. We should demarcate this. This is when New York becomes Mississippi, while Mississippi becomes New York. What do I mean? In all of these highly liberal

bastions, they are embracing this far left wing ideology, and I think it's going to come with these kinds of policies. And I think what it will do is it is a self-imposed form of modern segregation. And it is going to completely push an entire generation of kids in these cities that are subject to these rules into poverty, and it will keep them there. And so in as much, I think you're going to see this flipping where all the states that embrace AI, that embrace the data centers, that embrace

the tax cuts, that embrace the teacher bonuses, they're just going to end up ahead. And you're going to have people who are in a position to move, move. And then instead what's going to be left over in many of these cities that embrace these things to the extreme are hollowed out versions of their original self. And that's going to reorder the economic balance inside the United States and the

“voting balance. And many of these philosophy. So I think it's very important. I think you should run the”

test. I apologize, and I feel deep empathy for the working men and women whose kids will be (beep) over by this. But I think people can only learn and touching the stove and getting burned. Okay, sacks. Maybe you could go into the political side of this if there is one, and maybe what is your cynical take on what's going on here? Do you believe this is a reaction to the oligarchs, I joke previously, about you. But it does have a little bit of a tinge there of

democratic socialism. And it feels like maybe they want to sacrifice kids, or this is one interpretation that is happening online and not saying it's mine. But people are saying hey, they're trying to sacrifice kids because they don't want Sam, Altman, or Dario, or whichever service it is, Microsoft, to get a couple of shackles for software being used in a classroom. And of course, they would all give the software to them for free. And the current versions of it, you can use any

percent for free. So that makes no logical sense that they're sticking it to the man in the big oligarchic tech industry, your thoughts. Well, like the DSA has just really come out against any

litite side of the argument. And I think to the point that Freeberg and Jamoth were making earlier,

“this is going to be just really bad for the kids. You know, we've been talking for 30 years”

about a digital divide in this country, where supposedly the kids of wealthy people would have access the best tools and the kids of poor people would not have access those tools and had fallen even further behind. Well, here you have a case where, of course, private schools are going to continue to use the best AI powered tools. And now the public schools are not going to access those tools, not because they don't have the money, not because the technology is not available,

but because the political leadership is trying to sabotage those kids. And, you know, it's going to be bad for them. And I guess, you know, if you were to describe a motive to it,

I don't think Mam Donnie and his political group has party really care if they create more political

dependence. I mean, in a sense, their whole movement consists of downwardly mobile progressives. And if you're looking for a motive, maybe they're fine having these kids be down on the

“mobile. I don't know. Maybe that benefits them politically. They may actually not have kids at all.”

And they're making these rules. And it's people with kids who are part of the, because if you look at all these people, these are all like, you know, blue-haired single people with no children, right? Actually, they're delivering one of their element into this, which is, yeah. So, look, I don't think we really need to get into motives. We can just say it's about Paul seeing leave it at that. But let me just bring in one other element of this, which is it's not a full band,

okay? What they also said is that for a maximum of 50,000 high school students, they're going to have a pilot program. These so-called modules in which they teach AI literacy, but listen to how they describe it. They say that all high school students will have access to twice a yearally AI literacy classes designed to help them think critically about AI before they begin to rely on it, okay? These modules will introduce students to what AI is and is not.

This is their language, as well as AI related bias, risks, ethical considerations, and impacts on careers and future skills. And it says that all youth will take place under direct supervision of a trained educator and will involve carefully vetted AI tools. The pilots were selected based on rigorous safety and data privacy standards. So, you hear there a lot of this sort of doomer lingo. I mean, those modules, it sounds like they could have been written by some of these

safety people. You know, this language about AI bias and discrimination, things like that. I mean, honestly, those classes sound not like you're going to learn how to use the tools to get the best education, but about how you're going to learn to be suspicious of the tools. And maybe that's like

“a small part of what you should develop, because I guess you should be suspicious of everything,”

but it doesn't really sound like those courses are going to benefit kids. It sounds like they're going to put them through doomer academy quite frankly. Yeah. I mean, doesn't it sound like you're doing like doomer academy? Yeah. So, so think about the competitiveness of our kids versus Chinese kids. Yeah. China, we know, is incorporating AI into K through 12 education. Yeah. Their kids are going to learn how to take advantage of these robots. So, to the robot Olympics,

yeah, they teach us there. Yeah. Meanwhile, we either are banning AI in our school or we're putting the kids through, you know, some sort of doomer safetyist module that's going to teach them why they should resent and resist AI as opposed to embrace it to their benefit. So, I know, it just seems like this is not going to make our kids more competitive. Let the experiment run unfortunately, but let the experiment run. We need to measure it. I have a bunch of bots here.

I am a big advocate of Montessori, but I'm also a big advocate of adaptive learning and what these AI tutors are able to do to a motivated student who's family cannot afford a tutors. I was going to put two disparate points together here and there's somewhat opposing. Nick, if you

could pull up the first from the NIH here about the MIT study, and I'll send this one to you,

FreeBarby. You can look it up. It's very interesting. They took a group of 54 participants and started going to science corner here. It's still your thunder, FreeBarby. I should clear this with you ahead of time, but I was reading this paper 54 participants from last year into three groups. Over four sessions, and this is over four months, they were using a CHAPT for essay writing, not unlike the conversation we had about the Wall Street Journal editorial page last week.

And one group was using a search engine, one was using traditional web search, the brain-only group wrote essays without using any tools. And then the researchers used the headsets there to watch their brain activity. And what happened was the LLM user showed

they had just written. Basically what they're saying here is if you use these LLMs instead of

being able to do it acoustically, being able to do it like Montessori philosophy on your own, your brain atrophies, don't even remember what you wrote. And the search engine group was somewhere in between because they had to remember things and they had to pull these things together. Your

“brain atrophies, if you don't actually do the work, that's what we're learning. Just like your body”

will atrophy, if you don't work in the fields like we used to do. And that's why we will go to gems now. But correlating that super importantly is the two sigma problems. So bloom, and I'm sure you're aware of this research, free bird. So this is super interesting, but we'll not be shocking

to anybody of means. My parents could never afford a tutor. I was a product of the public

school system until eighth grade and then went to surveying private Catholic school which was like super cheap. But basically we've known since the 80s that if you are one on one two to you are two standard deviation better than students that are educated in a classroom. So two things can be true at the same time. These students to your point Shemoth, they don't have this experiments being run. They're realistically if they're going to the New York City public school system.

The parents in all like with it like mine didn't have the ability to hire a tutor. I'm assuming Sache came from a little bit of the middle cast background. I'm assuming you did have some tutors. Am I taking am I correct enough tutors? No tutors. Okay, so you had to just do it on your course. Yeah, I didn't necessarily want to. No. No, you know what? I went to wish I had done

“like an SAT workshop. I went into that test cold and everything. And you got 1400?”

Yeah. You did 30, 50, 14. I got like 14, 20, my first time and I'm like man, you know what? If I had actually prep for that, I might have done better. I got that under and I didn't get perhaps. I did retook it and did better. But anyway, yeah, I didn't know any of this stuff. Yeah. So here's the tension. Most parents do not want their kids to do this work and have their brain's atrophy and not learn how to do it from a basic level. Putting aside the drug and

milk on roof session from last week, you want people to be able to learn how to read and write and do this stuff organically, acoustically, whatever term you want to do. And then learn how to use the AI to help them augment them, etc. But I'm concerned that the motivated students who cannot use these tools properly, who also can't afford to be part of the two sigma group of

“parents who know very well. All you have to do is get your kid a tutor and unlike self-motivated”

sacks, they're going to easily get to 1400 and they're SAT with the tutor because the thing is wrote. It's very easy to get to 1200, 1300, 1400, 1400 under with the tutor. And so I'm super concerned about not having an AI tutor. And I feel like, you know, there's two things can be right at the same time with this. And I really don't like this experiment as currently constructed. All right. Interestingly, President Trump has just closed the deal for Venezuela's oil back in January.

I think everybody knows the US military in a perfect, perfectly executed operation, captured, Nicholas Maduro. And the obviously it was Venezuela's socialist leader who was a very pro-China pro-Russia and obviously Venezuela's in our hemisphere, Trump said the US would control Venezuela's oil. I would say I have a lot of it. It's not super clean, but they do have a lot of it. And he made a deal with Maduro's replacement. President Rodriguez is now in charge. Now we have the details of this.

North American blue energy partners gets a 100-year concession over 17 oil fields. This includes

65 billion barrels, 65 B billion barrels of reserves that were once controlled by Russia,

Chinese and Maduro entities, the US government controls 55% of the deal. Pentagon gets 35% equity. The Pentagon gets the third of the equity. State Department gets rights to buy 20% of output at cost. Interesting, I guess that's for our reserves and our military. This was signed by Rubio and Hague Seth with Venezuela's interim president. As I mentioned, blue energy partners is pledging roughly 100 billion in new infrastructure, a lot of other companies, Chevron, etc.

And a bunch of unnamed ones also are going to get some deals. Trump said this deal will be at quote, "no cost to the American taxpayer sacks." Throw you a fastball here if you want it or I can give this softball, which one do you want? A fastball. You like the fastball. You like the fastball. Okay, here it comes. Coming in. Hope you're wearing a helmet. Should we be seizing and taking over countries and seizing their oil fields? People feel like this might be

doing? Do we have the right to do this? This is the hard question people are asking? Or does might equal right? Well, I definitely don't think this is nation building. You know, we're not trying to stand up an army here or like we didn't have to stand. We're not trying to teach them about toxic masculinity. We're not trying to stand up a government or anything like that. We're not trying to teach them how to do American solid democracy. We're just making a business

deal. This is a business deal. And it's amazing. All the people who are saying, well, this is

exploitative of Venezuela and this is a bad deal for the people of Venezuela. Have you looked at Venezuela's oil production under Maduro? It already wasn't very high given the incredible reserves that Venezuela has. But under Maduro, the production dropped by about two thirds over the last decade. So they used to produce about three million barrels a day. A number of doro went down to about a million barrels a day. And this is a country with some of the largest oil reserves in the world.

“People debate exactly what should count. I think if you look at the total amount of reserves,”

it's something like 300 billion barrels of oil, which is it rounds the same as Saudi Arabia, it's a little bigger than Saudi Arabia. Now some people will say, well, a lot of that is like this extremely heavy crude sort of like sludge. That's not usable. I think that's this so-called or

noko reserves, but that's only about 200 of the 300. So they still have about 100 billion barrels

of, you could say, it's still a heavy crude, but those proven reserves, I think aren't really debated. So you're talking about a huge amount of oil here. And I guess this one last point on this is that that type of heavy crude is actually very commentary to our own. So in the United States, through the magic of a fracking, we've basically developed all of this oil and gas, but our oil is this light-sweet crude. That's good for refining it down to gasoline, but the heavy crude is what produces

the distillates and that's where diesel comes from. And our refineries in the Gulf were built for heavy crude. And it's very expensive to try and retrofit them to do the light crude. So actually, our refineries are sort of perfectly set up to take in the heavy crude and turn it into diesel and

“other distillates. So I think it's really a win-win deal for the U.S. And for Venezuela, again,”

Venezuela was doing horribly before. I think this will, this has to improve their economy. And I think it's really good news for the U.S. To your point, Sachs, over the past five and ten years, the price per barrel of oil coming out of Venezuela has averaged past ten years, 53 dollars a barrel, past five years, 58 dollars a barrel. So they're getting a pretty good deal. We're paying a little premium here to control it all. They were selling at a discount to China,

I think it was like a $20 barrel discount to basically sell. Yeah. So I guess when you're

dealing with authoritarian countries, and you don't have a free market to put this stuff out there, you get a slightly discounted price, right? Somebody's got to skim something here. We get a reason. And they got to ship across the world. Free burger thoughts on this. Do you have any concerns about the nation building, et cetera, putting in what some people are saying is a public president? Is it in the best interest of the people of Venezuela? Are we doing a solid

four of Venezuela to create more stability by being the buyer of this? Or is this just something we have to do? We have to control our hemisphere, and we have to be energy independent given the state of the war with Iran and the closure of the straight of hormones. The biggest motivating factor may be keeping this oil away from the sweetheart deal for Russia and China. If you look at the historical tie-up with Venezuela and the Maduro regime, it was a discounted oil trade system.

There's all these stories about Maduro being the head of the snake of all of this kind of illicit activity, and a lot of this was driven by Russia and Chinese interest in the energy reserves, and they were providing support, and this actually provided capacity to fund activities by the Russians in Cuba. So there's a lot of this state acting theory about what's the real motivation for getting an energy deal done, not just in terms of as a good for America, but it's a bad for

America's enemies, and that that may be kind of a big motivation around this. Now, one of the more

“kind of surprising outcomes over the last days, you guys may remember I interviewed Maria Corina Machado,”

she was the individual who was running for president, and ended up having what was supposedly

yesterday she came out and said that this Venezuelan government does not have the authority to do this energy deal with the US, despite her historically having been viewed as an American ally. So one thing to take note of is that she was not given the presidency, and now she's saying this government is illegitimate. This government should not be allowed to make these deals. We as the people of Venezuela should feel angry and upset and left out about this whole thing. So there

seems to be kind of this now political turning. I think I don't really have a good sense, and I think it'd be interesting to know what are the people in Venezuela think about this deal. And to Sax's point, it seems like it should be a good economic deal relative to where they're coming from. We'll that actually translate into improving the lives of the people in Venezuela,

“which ultimately is what matters here. And assuming that the lives of the people in Venezuela”

are improving rather than enriching a small number of people in Venezuela, which is what has happened. It's historically in that country under the last regime, then there may be kind of a long term welcoming of this deal. But I do think there's two aspects to this, one of which is just keeping America's enemies at bay so that these energy fields are not exploited by America's enemies. And second is ensuring that the Venezuelan people realize the benefit of this transaction

is not in a secret government. Provocative freedberg in that we have turned off Russia and China's access to Iran's oil with all war with Iran now in its seven months. And we took Venezuela away are these two actions incredibly provocative and have they had any kind of a downside to China because they seem to be all in on nuclear solar and other modalities. So are these two things

“super provocative and are they going to cause us to get into an escalation with China?”

The second question I think is a little bit independent, but I think China imports like 11

million barrels a day of crude oil. Venezuela is only producing a million barrels a day.

So if China is importing 11, well they were they're importing 11 before the war that numbers actually gone down a lot. And we can talk about why, but since the war started. But China gets most of its oil from the Middle East Persian Gulf and from Russia. I mean, so Venezuela is a small number. I mean, look, I think freeberg's right that that is a big part of our motive is securing those reserves that are in the western hemisphere. They are massive.

It's a very again, commentary type of oil to the oil we have. I think it's just smart financial security, smart economic deal. Take out to your point, does this get us more invested in

“Venezuela? I think there is a little bit of a risk there because if we're going to invest billions”

dollars in upgrading their infrastructure so that we can produce three million barrels a day instead of

one, we need to know that that investment is protected. We cannot have some future government coming along and just nationalizing our American oil companies over there, right? We need to know that these business deal we're not going to get rug pulled in the disease. Yeah, these busy upgrades. Yeah. This business deal is supposed to last for 25 years. So it does give us a vested interest in making sure that the Venezuelan government, at least respects our property rights. But

I'm glad that President Trump didn't put Machado in charge because how she can stay in power, like what guns are going to basically protect her. You know, it takes men with guns to basically stay in power in these countries. And so I'm not saying that it can't be democratic. I'm just saying that if you're not installed in the power structure there and have backers in the military things like that, then very hard to stay in power. And that's the kind of thing where we could

have to send American GIs in to protect her. And we don't want that, right? So the nice thing about

the Venezuelan situation is Dolce Rodriguez and her brother are basically running the country.

She was the number two. Now she's running it. They appear to have enough support from the establishment there. And so like that's kind of what the American interest is. I think it's instead of stable government there that will basically conduct economic relations with us. Yeah. Yeah. Trim off any thoughts here on what's happening in the last day close to it. I don't really know. Don't know. Okay. That's fair enough. Fair enough. All right. There it is. Everybody. Episode

288 somehow. This band has kept it together for 288 albums and tracks. We're going to make it 300 boys. I think we're in a good rhythm. The show feels easier to do now than it did for a long time. Yeah. I wonder why. The AI has been a very good good thing for the pod. We're party like it's 2019. I hope it's Bob. Let's get going and copo. Let's get go. We'll see everybody and pop. Love you guys. Love you besties. Bye, bye, bye.

The natural meaty I've got. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge or he could do all his business. It's like this sexual tension that we just need to release now. What you're that beef? What you're a beef? What you're a beef? What you're a beef? We need to get more beef. Besties are Bob.