Are We Running Out of Missiles?

You're listening to American Power. I'm your host Nat Tousen, political speechwriter, other kind of writer, stand up comedian,

and most likely to be brought up

“and held against me in the future podcast host.”

I'm joined as always by my panel of experts,

our expert on foreign policy and the military Chad Scott, how's it going? Going really great. Glad to have Mr. Global back from his vacation, had a good time at here in Vegas.

Tell me, bragging about all the money he wants, ridiculous and luckiest son of a bitch on the face of the earth. I was,

which brings me to the second number of our panel, back after a full episode absence. You know, Mr. Global, Matt Randolph, Matt, how is your post-Navato life? I was great.

I'm still doing body shots, of course, septic, but other than that. (laughing) Fantastic. There's a close-up dike,

counteract the body oils. (laughing) Feels like kind of a neutral act. Whatever happens in Vegas. So we are gonna violate that rule today

“by interviewing him and making him tell us everything”

that happened in Vegas, but also, we are presenting a slightly different special episode today, where we're gonna take a couple deep dives into topics we've been asked about by listeners, our producers,

other people in our orbit, and take a minute to go a little deeper into our discussion less tied to the headlines than we normally would.

In the first half of our episode,

we're gonna talk about the US munitions stockpile. Is it dwindling? Is there any validity to these concerns of our dwindling munitions stockpile? And in the second half of our episode,

we are going to get into the way that Trump and other elites have been manipulating the oil markets. We've talked about this in previous episodes, but we wanna cut a little closer into the issue, provide some receipts and talk about

specifically what's been happening with numbers. So let's start with our first topic of the day, we are gonna talk about the US munitions stockpile. I'm gonna start with Chad. I've got some questions, Trump is denying

“that the US munitions stockpile is dwindling.”

I'm seeing a lot of headlines about how our dwindling munitions stockpile is a threat to us. I am seeing them mostly from conservative news sources. I haven't seen a lot of, I've thought I've read a BBC report,

but other than that, I've seen a lot of CNN, Fox News. So I'm curious as to what the angle is, especially considering that Trump seems to be in denial mode about this. What's the reality of this story and why,

as a follow-up question that I've already asked him, Chad, why is this suddenly so prevalent in this course? - Yeah, so there is real problems, but I wanna come out up front and say, it's not that the United States cannot defend itself.

It's not that the United States is suddenly we're just weak and pathetic, and we need to be concerned for our own safety. The United States is still probably the most unenvitable country in the entire world,

period and of story.

What the problem is is because we have an expeditionary military,

meaning we deploy our military other places. We don't really need to defend our homeland so much. So our military goes other places, and we have bases all over the world. We have the most bases of any country, all over the world.

And the problem, though, is when you have bases all over the world, you are in often potentially hostile regions. One of those being the Middle East right now, obviously, because of this, once again, I'll say it, this foolish war that Trump has started.

And so Iran has this capability to launch missiles at various bases within the footprint of what would be the central command area of operations, things places like the Kuwait, where we have Aliyah Selim and other bases.

We have Jordan, which has been a big one with the soldiers that were killed there recently, Saudi Arabia, et cetera. Many, many places, including Israel. And the way we defend our troops there

is a series of concentric defenses. And those include things like our patriot missile batteries and our thad batteries. That's where the big focus is right now. We've depleted our patriot missile batteries

so much that we only have about 800 left. Not batteries, sorry, patriot missiles. Batteries are different batteries or what fire the missiles. So we have only 800 to 800 and 50 of those misses.

Now this is data that was about a week old, by the way. So I don't know where that, it would be even less as we continue to have to defend ourselves from Iranian missiles and drones. We also have another system called thad.

That is a terminal high altitude area defense. It's a similar system, but it's a bit more exquisite in its capability. Often, this is the one we would be used to counter ballistic missiles in a nuclear capacity.

It's one of our defenses. It's in the line of defenses along with things like ages and stuff like that, but ages to different systems. Anyways, because it's that ground to air or air to air, your ground to air, all of these are all the patriots.

They're missile batteries that sit on the ground or in the ocean, we have big platforms

“that will detect launches and often the intercept.”

These interceptors are incredible. They're very good, they're the best in the world. And we do very well with them. These are designed, these are not the same thing as like the iron dome that Israel has.

Israel's iron dome is designed to hit much slower rockets and things like that. These are designed to hit very fast ballistic missiles.

The problem is is they were originally designed

to counter much more dangerous foes, China, Russia. Those countries that pose extreme danger to the United States in their respective regions, whether it's the South China Sea, East China Sea, or in Europe, what has come to Russia.

Because we've reduced the patriots to such a level that we only have 800, 800, 50 of them. And the sad level is even more shockingly low. It's we're talking somewhere around 50 to 80 of these. And the fact that they're extraordinarily expensive

to replace a sad missile is like $8 million, a patriot missiles like $2 million.

“These are not cheap items to just be firing at drones.”

Now, we don't just use them against drones, but nonetheless, it becomes a last line of defense if we need to just stop something. And part of the reason why Trump has stopped this aggression, he wanted to admit it, is because his generals are telling him,

hey, the retaliatory strikes are starting to get through because of our lack of munitions. And the Iranians recognize this, and they say they'll tell their proxies, the hoothies and Hezbollah expand this war,

expand it so that the United States has to defend a bigger area. If we count the hoothies Hezbollah and Iran proper, the United States is having to defend an area that is 2.2 million square miles. And to try and do that with 800 patriot missiles

is nearly impossible. And so what happens is we have a real issue with our defensive capability. We have lots of offensive capability. We can still go into Iran and strike them with dumb bombs

because we own the air for the most part.

“We can go in and strike the proxies and Iraq”

similarly because there's just no air defenses. Where we have problems is when the retaliatory strikes come and now we're having to defend against ballistic missiles that end up killing US troops. And that's very politically toxic.

So the headlines are real, but I just want to say it's not that we are out of munitions entirely.

It's the ones that defend us on the ground in critical areas.

So it's the specific munitions. And correct me if I'm wrong, but what you're describing here is kind of a disproportionate response as in we are using very expensive munitions to defend in a way that may be overkill for drones.

Like you're saying, well, these are designed to stop mass-moving ballistic missiles. And therefore, we're using something that could stop a much larger threat on these drone strikes. And thus exhausting our stockpile

is that how that's where other specific munitions is that correct summarization? Yeah, it's part of it. So part of it is of that weapon. Yes, we are using them on occasion to strike a drone

as almost like a, we have nothing else in theater and by theater, I mean nothing else in the area to strike it with. So yes, we're going to take it out with that. Because the math on it is they would rather use that $2 million missile to defend against say a $50,000

drone because that $50,000 drone could take out like a $20 million aircraft. So that's what the justification is. Now we have other assets like a coyote. The coyote is an anti-drawn weapon

that we have. It's very cheap.

The problem is we don't have these distributed everywhere.

And so the ability to stop everything at all times is becoming very difficult. So often we're having a rely on expensive weapons to strike or to intercept an Iranian missile. And it's even when you look at Iran firing

their ballistic missiles, their ballistic missiles are cheaper than ours because they don't ever necessarily have to hit a target. If they're in route to the proximity of a base that the US is occupying, the US is going to intercept

that regardless of whether it's going to do damage or not just out of a abundance of caution. And Iran knows that. So if they can just fill the sky with ballistic missiles, they know that the United States is going

to attempt to intercept them. And because of that, we're going to deplete our stocks. And then eventually they can start sneaking missiles through in other places that we weren't necessarily counting for, which is where that Jordan situation came in.

We weren't necessarily accounting for Jordan. We had air defenses and the capability there. But there are other ways to defend. It's just the ability of Iran to provide mass of not necessarily exquisite capability,

but just anything to fill the skies makes it so our capabilities become overwhelmed. And that's the problem we're facing. And that's the calculus that the Pentagon

think about with moving forward in this war.

They are really exhausting our defensive stockpile by a broad attack in many ways, not just drones, but by forcing us to respond over and over again. One related question I wanted to ask is, what about Tomahawk missiles?

“I believe I read that we fired about that.”

Was it of them in this war? What's our stockpile looking like there? And does that really affect the calculus here? Yeah, so we are drawing down Tomahawk missiles. Tomahawk missiles.

Interestingly, they're very capable. They're an extraordinary missile. They're a cruise missile though. So when you think about the ability to fight what we would call a near-peer foe.

A near-peer foe is someone that carries the same technological capabilities as someone who could do real damage.

If we had to fight them, we're talking about countries like China

or Russia specifically in these capabilities. Tomahawks aren't as great because they have the same defenses. They can shoot a Tomahawk down everything from a gun on the ground that we have the phalanx gun, which is a gattling gun on a radar that shoots things out of the sky.

That can shoot a Tomahawk down. We have, they have similar things on their ships. So Tomahawks are great for places like Iran. They're not so great for places like Russia or China. Unless we have depleted their air defenses

to such a level that we can sneak 'em through. They are great because they are a bit more stealthy, but the idea is that both China and Russia have the capability to counter them. So I'm not as concerned about offensive weapons such as the Tomahawk.

We have other alternate capabilities like smart bombs, things like the jabs, which is a smart bomb that is launched from stealth aircraft. And those things are where we would have the offensive capability.

My concern is traditionally the United States has always been

very casualty of verse. And so what happens, we're not always since Vietnam, really. I mean, we were very honed in on the casualty numbers with Iraq and Afghanistan. And we built these defensive mechanisms.

And so what happens is countries like China and Russia, they see us drawing down our defensive capability. Not necessarily our offensive capability, but they see the political will of the United States dwindling because people ask, why are these people dying?

We're the most powerful country. We should have the defensive capability to make sure our people aren't dying while they are. Our enemies are our people are. And that's where I think the leverage comes in

for countries like China and Russia to apply pressure on us. They look at our munitions and go, they can still hurt us, but if we can hurt them even a fraction, their people are gonna give up on this war and demand stops.

“And I think that's what Iran is doing as well.”

They see that they can inflict minimal casualties relative to what we're inflicting on them. But the Iatola, the Islamic Republic, they're more willing and frankly Russia. And so as China, they're more willing

to sacrifice people than the United States is. And it becomes a political test of wills, so to speak. - And this is something we talked about in one of our early Iran episodes, but this isn't to condemn the people of Iran in any way.

- No. - And the rather to say that they've been extremely resilient over the past century. But Americans are experiencing a decreasing level of comfort and some of that comfort is quality of life

and some of that comfort is being able to deny the realities of war because we're not facing casualty as a lot of the time. We have a pretty high standard of comfort globally. And I think other countries do understand

that Americans, while our government is punishing and hurting its people arguably more than if not ever before, then hurting people on mass of its own citizenship, of its own citizenry, in ways that are unprecedented and especially unprecedented in the past century,

while that is happening, we are still as citizens really protected from the realities of war. I mean, we don't, after Vietnam, when body bags were aired on TV, our government realized that the people knew too much, that that was too strong and image for civilians to see

and we really get protected from that kind of thing.

“So I think you, just to back up what you're saying,”

we are very averse to civilian casualties, which I do think is a good thing, but I don't think that we should think of civilians casualties in any other country as any less of a tragedy than American civilian casualties.

But culturally, we are, we're very protected from the idea that that can happen in a war while we're causing destruction elsewhere. And not only that, but you know, people rioted over the cost of eggs here, you know,

we didn't riot, but people rearrange their entire political philosophies over the price of groceries for people who weren't gonna roll over the price of their groceries. So yeah, we are, we are a very comfort-focused society. And I do think that other global cultures understand

that their populace is more trained to enduring the suffering inflicted by their government than ours is. - Yeah, I think, I will say that it's actually the policy of Vladimir Putin right now.

and what wish to support Ukraine. And China's doctrine is that they see the United States military is powerful

in a way that they will never be able

to contest the U.S. military globally. So what they need to do is find a way to inflict enough casualties in their region, around Taiwan and South China Sea, near Japan, wherever, is China's aspirational goals of running their region

and make it so the United States isn't necessarily experiencing military defeats, but becomes what they're calling politically interruptible. Meaning, China looks at Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, the inconsistent intervention we had in Syria.

And they learn from places like that, including Iran that if you just put enough pain on the U.S. that Americans become uncomfortable, they won't see the long-term impacts of losing Taiwan's semiconductor industry to China.

They won't care. They'll demand to be done with this war now. And that's China's goal.

They don't have to defeat the United States militarily.

They only need to have a local advantage for a limited period of time to make it painful on the average Americans for a year, maybe. And then at that point, we'll just give up. And we've done it time and time again.

And I get tired of hearing people say, we are military is weak. We haven't lost wars because our military is weak. We've won damn near every battle for the last 50 years. We lose wars because we lose the political will,

because as you said, the American people, they're very comfortable. They don't like when gas prices go up. They don't like when they see bodies bags. They don't like when food and things get more expensive.

And to have more than an extent, even though it doesn't seem like that the American people are averse to the types of warfare that sometimes other countries are willing to do, like bombing schools and stuff.

We bombed a school in Iran, and that was atrocious. And there was a pretty strong level of distaste that came out. And you wouldn't have seen that in Russia or China. So, and rightfully so, that was of trotace.

“- It is, and it's interesting because I think,”

we bombed every school in Gaza, right? And where was that response when that happened? And there was no university standing left in Gaza, right? They've all been destroyed. I think that's true with elementary schools as well at this point.

But I do think it took a secondingly long for the American people to break out of the denial cycle when it comes to the most recent atrocities in Gaza and Israel's occupation of Gaza over decades. But I think it's interesting because you do,

I think you saw the establishment and the Democratic establishment making a huge miscalculation about how badly Americans want that comfort, right? Because I think to the,

we are willfully participants in our own ignorance a lot of the time. There were atrocities when we were going on when I was a child, I didn't have to know about them. Social media didn't exist.

There are all sorts of conflicts happening around the world. It's throughout the U.S. history that Americans have really willfully not been terribly aware of. And especially after Vietnam, when they started ending up in brown countries or in South America,

in Latin America, a lot of Americans are willing to turn up blind eye because this isn't a conflict with Europeans that look like us. It's not a conflict with them.

“And so I think they made this calculation of like,”

oh, people will be willing to ignore this if we tell them to add a comfort. But I think part of it is just like the gag order, the media control has slipped in recent years. They can no longer prevent us from seeing images of war

across cities. But I do think that fits right in, which was like, it took way too long and the Israel propaganda in the U.S. is so deeply ingrained that I feel like it took at least two years to really chisel into that wall.

I got to crack it all. But now what you're seeing is over and over again, these apex-supported politicians are getting rejected. 'Cause I think you're right, Americans really, it was years of denialism regarding Gaza,

but ultimately at our core, we're revolted by those things.

We're revolted by bombing schools and hospitals and atrocities and leaving babies and incubators to die and rot and executing doctors. You know, like all these, I don't have to remind you of all the horrible things that happened.

But like, I think our establishment of huge miscalculation there and thinking that they could essentially hide, not a war, they could hide a genocide from us.

“And I think, a testament to the American people”

that we're seconded by that kind of thing. - Yeah, absolutely. And I wanna get madstots on this because we are, and I don't wanna say soft because it's a good thing that we are so averse to war when it becomes uncomfortable.

I mean, because China didn't even have to, we started ramping up the rhetoric and things started heating up between us and China not necessarily not even remotely close to what I call the kinetic action of actual bullets

But the minute we started getting crappy with them

in any way with tariffs,

“they just said, "How you like them, rare with minerals?"”

And all they'd, and the minute they threatened that and held that over, I had we backed off immediately. And I mean, that's something that, if we back away from our convictions on certain issues with regard to like the weegers in China

or they're stealing our intellectual property, that quickly because of our reliance on them. I don't, I can imagine what flexing they could do when it comes to a war. I will say before I ask Matt what he thinks about this,

I will say though, there is a tipping point. Democracies, such as US, Canada, Europe, all of all the NATO countries, there is a tipping point that if you push us too far,

democracies have an incredible capability of muscle movement

that eventually those countries that have pushed us for instance, the Japan and World War II Germany, they come to regret very quickly. And that's, that is still applies today. If we will be uncomfortable and be upset

and averse to any kind of risk or not wanting to fight a war and why are we doing this a thousand miles away until it becomes a catastrophic mistake where they've actually sunk one of our ships or they've done something so terrible

that we have to address it. And in that case, that's when the United States and its allies can absolutely bring that force to bear and it will be devastating. So I want to be clear that that is the capability

that still is there. It just takes a long time and it has to be really painful for the American people to actually do that. And thoughts on that, Matt, thoughts on them leveraging their minerals and their capability

against this because we're so dumb and letting them do it. - Yeah, I think generally speaking, anytime you fight a war that is preemptive in nature, you set yourself up to lose it.

Because, like, I mean, basically what Chad is saying here,

if you attack us, we're gonna fuck you up. But a lot of the wars we fought recent decades were preemptive and when you do that, the entire war is debated. Like the reason for its debated should we be doing it. And once that occurs, the little bit of discomfort

for dollar gas and suddenly people like, you know, maybe we shouldn't be doing this. So it's like you're starting this whole thing from a position of, I don't wanna say weakness, but it's not a strong position to start a war from,

because you're having to convince people that you're doing the right thing. And I find it hard to believe that people that truly believe we were under this threat of a nuclear attack from Iran aren't willing to pay $4 for gas to eliminate that.

Like even with that threat being sort of, you know, what was sold to us, people don't believe it enough to, and worry about it enough to let it make their lives uncomfortable and more difficult.

Does that make sense? Like if Iran had attacked us, we would all be all in for this war. Just like Chad's talking about. Like we would just, we would all be gangbusters.

There would be a time where we would get tired of it and get fatigued, but I think a lot of it has to do with the preemptive stuff, because you're trying to sell someone an idea from the beginning.

And that's a really hard sell when you're talking about war and the fog of war and everything that happens in war.

“And I think that's what makes it so difficult”

is this preemptive stuff. And I'm not saying we shouldn't fight wars preemptively, we should absolutely prevent terrible things from happening. But it feels like often, what do they call that?

Nat, wag the dog or whatever. It feels like the tail of the dog. For other reasons, other than what we're actually told, because there's so many reasons for a distraction, you know? Well, and yeah, you're totally right at the tail wagging.

Sorry, I didn't mean, did you have more to say there? I didn't mean to cut you. No, I was trying to close that out, make sense. Sorry, zoomed away. But no, I just wanted to say, I think you're totally right,

because you know, to go one step beyond what you're saying, preventative is a justification that we're often presented with. It's one thing if there's, you know, a real, there's a threat that is real, there's evidence or that like we are preventing a civil war

that could destabilize a country and hurt human rights. Like there are instances in which those things happen

“in our important, but we've also been told that,”

oh, well, this country, you know, went communist and nationalized their oil industry. So that's an imminent threat. So we need to be preventative by invading them. And it's like, that's not preventative.

That's you wanting to protect capital. Like that's not, you can convince us that you can claim

I don't know, maybe by being literate or something and reading all our books. But, sorry, guys, Cuba's got a really high literacy rate. But, you know, all of these, all of this like Latin American wars that we wage, all these invasions of these,

you know, socialists and communist countries, we were sold on those as being preventative or at least we were, you know, that was the pitch.

“But I think even saying that at this point is generous.”

I mean, that's just the US protecting its, you know, it's business interest internationally. So low and behold, you'll still get defenders for those wars because you're gonna get people who buy the propaganda, you know, talking points

for every generation. Or you're gonna get the people for whom propaganda talking points are just an easier way of saying,

you know, raw, raw, US, jingoism, we're always right,

which is obviously not true. But you're still gonna get the defender, but I think, you know, in the long run, there's no one being like, I mean, there's not a lot of people going, well, you know, Vietnam was a great idea.

You know, we were totally in the right in all these Latin American wars where we let dictators take over torture civilians. You know, I think, I think with time, we've realized that so much of what we would have even

called preventive is, you know, welcome. It's just a sales pit. - Yeah, and I will say that the recent wars that we fought, there, because there's a difference between the preventive strikes and preemptive war,

the preventive war, and then a war of choice. And everything we have had recently has been a war of choice. And so they will use those terms. They will say, like, well, this was preventative,

what are we preventing? Because we get sold the other nuclear thing, like Mao was saying,

and there was never really a threat there.

There was not a threat to the United States or its interests, especially after midnight hammer, and then Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon. And so they, that was considerable. This was a preventative strike.

It was really preemptive because it wasn't really preventing. They used an excuse to quote unquote, prevent something from happening. But they manifested that excuse out of thin air when it wasn't reality.

It's the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq all over again. So what ends up happening is we, instead, the true term is we just have these wars of choice. And so really the last time we've done anything truly in relation to a preventative, preventing terrible things

was in the, what were the broadly the Yugoslav wars, the Kosovoz Serbia, when there was the Serbian genocide, and we were trying to prevent that type of stuff. Those fair enough, that's one of those things where, yeah, that's the design of warfare.

But no one on the face of the earth, China, Russia, include just stupid enough to try and go toe to toe with the United States. So to say that any country on earth, even North Korea, Iran is an imminent threat

to our existence is silly. It is a silly message that you pull on the, on the heartstrings and the fears of the American people. And that's exactly what they did with Iran. They said they're gonna build a nuclear weapon.

They're gonna destroy Israel, they even brought up, they brought it back to biblical times. They said, this is gonna be the end times

and which always blew me away because I was like,

well, then if you start a war there,

“it doesn't it mean you're bringing it up how yourself?”

So yeah, why are you going back to where the Bible takes place if you don't want to set up the end time? Exactly. The thing is, and the countries around the world, China rushes of the world who are,

what I would call it, consider our most dangerous folks. And I say Russia with a significant amount of skepticism, they can't even handle Ukraine with a modicum of backing from Western nations. China's a real threat, I think we could still handle them,

but the thing is, those countries aren't interested in fighting a war with the United States. So they're not gonna, they're gonna, China's gonna deal in messaging. They're not gonna deal in fighting.

They're gonna hit us politically first. They're gonna, and they can parse that messaging into like, so the political left, it's gonna say, they'll say, oh, well, you're an invention it's just another level of empiricism.

Oh, imperialism, to the political right, they'll say Taiwan is a foreign country, just taking American money. They'll tell American businesses, Taiwan is gonna destroy the economy.

So they will pinpoint these messages, whether they're true or not, that's what they do. And they don't want to fight a war against the US, with weapons, because they largely will lose.

But they know that they don't even have to get there. We'll probably give up before then.

“And that's exactly what I think they're learned.”

We've just retot everyone in the world. That that's exactly what happens with Iran. 'Cause we're just giving up and rightfully so because we outkicked our coverage, with it to use a dilly sports reference,

but we have a, our plan seems to me, and maybe Matt has a better idea. With plan that Trump put forward was bomb the shit out of them and then just hope for the best. And that's kind of where we ended up.

And hope for the best.

And so yeah, the Chinese, they learned the lesson

that so long as they can outlast us politically without tipping us over the edge of, okay, this really does hurt Americans, then they're gonna, they're gonna likely be able to inflict serious damage

against us in any future endeavor. They, they, they so choose. - Other countries get really handed on the playbook to exhausting us, sorry. - No, you're right.

That's exactly what they we did. We will, they can, they will be able to get on our social media and it doesn't matter if you're an isolationist, if you're a warhawk, they will find a way to get that message directly into your eyeballs.

And then you're gonna doubt what the US can do. And that's exactly what they wanna do. - And Trump in some ways is just a propaganda strategy. - Yeah, right.

“Hard honestly, if it's like you can provoke this guy so easily,”

no one is able, is capable of ignoring him, he's got the most media penetration in the world. And he's reactive. He's so reactive. Like if you're a propaganda,

he's exactly what you want in a dictator. You know, you wanna guy who's gonna be egotistical in hurt. - That the fuck out, just shut the fuck out. I mean, like people commented and will complain

that Obama wasn't telling everyone on earth about what was going on in Syria. That's a reason for it. - Yeah. - Yeah, there's a bit of discretion here.

But Trump, it's not just Trump is just not shutting the fuck up, it's that he's just lying. And their lies are just even average person can see it. So yeah. Matt, do you have any other perspective

you wanna throw into this? - I made the comment the other day that I think one of the easiest jobs in the world is to be an intelligence official for any country that is building a psychological profile on Donald Trump.

Because between Donald Trump and our media, we literally give them, we hand them the entire psychological profile on the president.

“And I think maybe in Chad can probably speak”

to this much better than I can. But I know most all countries build these profiles of our leaders, right? And it's how they interact with us. It's how they counteract with us, right?

And for a country like Iran, all they gotta do is watch the news or listen to Donald Trump. Like they don't have to get into a whole lot of spy type stuff to figure out Donald Trump. Like it's literally served to them on a platter,

one by WhiteHouse.gov or the WhiteHouse Facebook channel. And two by all of the American media who, while we're all laughing at all the stupid shitty says. It's gotta be the true social.

- Yeah, you don't have time to wait for the news to report on it. You can find out his immediate reaction sometimes. - So, that might even be more direct. - That's what's so enraging to me

is Donald Trump doesn't realize that every time he gets and runs his mouth and just says all the stupid shitty says, it's not, he does that for his voters, but the entire world is listening. - Mm-hmm.

- The Iran is listening, right? Russia's listening, they're listening to all of it and then they're taking notes and they're documenting it and like it is, it is just an unbelievable level of,

of naivety and unprofessionalism. Like he has no idea the damage he does with his own words on a daily basis. I mean, that's what happens and you don't hear the word no until age 65.

So, I don't think he's trained that in itself. - Yeah, and the one final thing I will say and I just don't want this to be all doom and gloom is traditionally the United States

has always been kind of the last react,

we're always kind of the him and in horrors, we're always like just our allies tend to snap us out of that. And I just want to once again say that that's why the alliances are important. Japan in a China situation will be the first

to come to us with a sobering description. And Japan is a country that we very much trust and have since obviously World War II. And so, those types of allies, the Canada's, the, and I know our relationship with them

is, is afraid, but I've listened increasingly more and more to not what Donald Trump says, but what more Republican senators and Congressmen are saying. And I'm finding that the Trump burn everything down.

That's very, very minimal. They are enabling him because they're scared of losing primaries, but when you hear and back channels, they're like NATO is a good thing. We're not gonna let that fall apart.

“Chime, do, honestly, a reputable damage,”

but it's still gonna be there.

And so our allies, we're always the ones

in World War II was the British. They snapped us out of it, got us finally up and running in, when it comes to a potential situation and with Russia, it would be probably Poland, which Trump has a lot of respect for Poland.

When it comes to China, it would be Japan and South Korea.

The United States isn't some unwavering stubborn,

never changing our minds, monolith of doing whatever we want.

We can be swayed by allies.

“And traditionally, that's what's gotten us going.”

And that's what's probably going to be necessary in the situation where if China or Russia do something that is what more agree just than what Russia's already done or if China does actually decide to move in the South Chinese Sea.

So I would just say, don't give up on the US. So we'll snap out of it. - We're trying, we're trying. - If you're listening, I do want to move to our second topic for the episode, I wanted to touch on one last thing

what we were just talking about though with the Meditation Stockpile, which is, as you're discussing exhausting, you know, Iran figuring out how to exhaust us and handing that playbook pretty much everyone else.

I think it's also just worth, you know, it should be obvious to the average listener, but I want to touch this point one more time every time we talk about the cost of these things,

which is that, but these are $2 million missiles,

minimum, some of them are $8 million missiles.

“The national endowment for the arts budget”

is $165 million, and it's a 5% of our GDP. It's one of the only things we still export and yet we are spending as much on 15 missiles as we are on a arts for our country in a year. So when we talk about exhausting our munitions stockpile

and replenishing it, I just want to remind people that that money doesn't come from nowhere. It's not just a strategic mistake, it's also strangling American livelihood and those of you who voted, you know,

on affordability issues, you're probably able to make that connection by now. - Yeah, one final stat that scare that we can pivot, we can only make 50 Patriots per month, and we can only make two sad missiles per month.

Really? In one single attack, Iran launched more than 50 missiles at one point during this. So if we were using all Patriots, we would have expended it in one month's worth of our capability.

Now, granted, we are ramping that up, but right now, that's a big problem. So I just wanted to-- - Yeah, and it would cost, of course. - Yeah, and then it takes away from education and other-- - Yeah, and all the other things that we need

to improve quality of life, which is-- - Well, I remind you, guys, the point of having a government. - Can I do a stat since you guys did a stat? - Go for it, stat me. - Yeah.

- Let's check-- - We're losing a word to a country

whose defense budget is $7 billion a year.

When ours is $9,000, $1,000, $1,000. - It's like 120 times less than ours. - Yeah, no, that did you net-- - I can tell by-- - I did not know, that is very low comparatively.

“That's like the net for a one marble movie, you know?”

- Right, it's like, exactly. - That's avatar. - Yeah, that's avatar, get profit right there. - Wow. - Yeah. - Yeah, I mean, we are making incredible strategic errors.

So speaking of the incredible mine at the helm of our country, I want to talk in the second half of our episode here, a little bit about oil prices, gas prices, the market specifically, and how our president of our government generally have been manipulating that

so that we don't experience a realistic impact at least in the short term in prices. We have talked about this a number of times in previous episodes, but we decided it would be good to go slightly deeper into them.

Matt, would you be willing to start this section for us? - Well, you are the one who's talked about this, the most on our show, and you are often pointing out how Trump will manipulate oil prices by making, let's say, like announcements on true social

the moment before markets open, right? And artificially inflating investor confidence. So things like that, I am doing my best to repeat what you have described to me. Could you get more into detail about what Trump

is actually doing and why? - Sure. And so first of all, today Donald Trump came out and demanded that the oil companies return their profits to the people,

totally overnight, he became the very communist that Republican Trump came from. - Yeah, come on, come on, Donald Trump. - But the great part about that was Iran's response to that was to talk about how they've documented

all of his market manipulation. They are alleging he's doing it through Steve Whitcoff and Judd Kushner, and they literally documented the dates in the amount of money, and the times, like, you know, on March the 23rd, $600 billion of oil shorts,

10 minutes before an announcement of a fake ceasefire, and they literally just went right down the line and they estimated that they had made somewhere north of, around $9 billion over a five week period, and I would like to point out that oil company profits are quarterly.

So the $9 billion would be more

If that is actually how much they made. But yeah, this, this war is,

“and I don't want to say that the war is a grift for them,”

but they're definitely using it as a grift for them. Iran is claiming it's Whitcoff and Kushner, Iran is claiming that they've worn JD events about this in the past and JD events blew them off. That's what Iran is claiming.

And since I don't want to spread Iranian propaganda, I want to say Americans said it first. Okay, every oil analyst, every commodities market expert, every oil expert has all said this before Iran said it. So I'm not spreading Iranian propaganda.

Iran is actually repeating what Americans are saying when they say this and that's key. So you've been saying it for a while now. Yeah, and they're all saying. We've been saying it on this podcast,

but everyone also does not propaganda, if it's investigative reporting, I've actually, well, if I'm showing up with receipts, it's still politically motivated, but it's not, it's not nonsense.

On May the six over a billion dollar short was placed

on the oil markets, minutes before an announcement. People may not know this, but placing a huge oil short is an unbelievably risky, unbelievably risky stock market play. It's like one of the most riskiest things there is.

So for someone to have the confidence to say, hey, I'm gonna put down one and a half billion dollars that oil prices are gonna fall at 5.30 in the morning, by the way. And then it happens 10 minutes later. Yeah, if it looks like a duck and it walks like a duck,

and it wags the tail of the dog, like the dog, as we talked about earlier, then it's a duck dog or whatever. But I'm just saying, the market's supposed to be manipulated. - No, I completely tracked, continue, no, no, no, no, no. - You're a Europeist.

- I love it when people say no notes. - I favor it, but you're a poet, I understood everything. I think, okay, so I'm sorry, if they'll be in on that note, is that anonymous? Like how do we, we don't know who plays to,

well, one and a half billion dollars.

- Right, no, we don't know. - You and I don't know. - Yeah, I see. - Any trade that is made is known. There's a record, you know, there's a record.

Now, like the 5.30 AM trades,

“which you have to think about is someone says,”

well, who does that at 5.30 in the morning? And I said before, it's not 5.30 in the morning in London. It's not 5.30 in the morning in Singapore. And like these trading houses are all over the world. So it's not really the time that matters,

because no one's making a trade at 5.30 in the morning in the United States, but they're doing it somewhere. - So, and is it being, do you think it's being done at those less common to the US hours be like to occlude what's going on from the market?

So you say, is it sneaky that it's happening earlier? Or you're saying that's not evidence of anything domestic? - So the reason you make a trade at 5.30 in the morning US time, even though it may be later in the day in London, is because that's when the market

is the most illiquid, that's when the least amount of money is falling into an out of it. And that's when it has the biggest impact.

So if you place the billion dollar bit at 5.30

in the morning, say central standard time, that has a much larger impact than if you did it to a clock in the afternoon central standard time, 'cause there's time because the US market's so big and that's all right, because during the last market times.

- Yeah, the US market is obviously just because we're trading so much during those hour-day hours, like you're sort of pre-empting that by going 5.30 in the US. - Yes, that's the period of hours in which most money's moving around.

- And all of these massive trades, all of them, happen during the most illiquid times of the day in US trading when it has the most impact possible. - Interesting, it's very interesting. - Someone's making a lot of money and we're gonna find out.

I mean, we'll probably have to probably be under the next administration, but we are absolutely gonna find out. There's no getting around this. - Yeah, 'cause the data's out there. - Yeah, that's definitely out there, yeah.

“- I'm honestly surprised we haven't already found out.”

- So, well, it's interesting, 'cause I didn't even know where Ron published it. I really didn't, 'cause I did my own investigation into exactly what this escalation de-escalation cycle has looked like, and it has happened seven times.

- Seven times since the war started in late February that there's been an escalation by the Trump administration this war and then a de-escalation and the oil markets reflected that. And I have all of the receipts on that.

That, I mean, and that I can run through real quick, or I let's do it. - This is a special episode, I want facts. - All right, so, as you know, obviously the war started back in late February

and since the war started, oil steadily rose.

that there was a potential for manipulation

that I do think that they were starting the war because for foolish reasons, they thought it was less we've said in the past that it was a plucked the dictator, Venezuela situation.

They were wrong, clearly. March 23rd, Trump decides to postpone further attacks, oil falls 11%.

“This is when I think people start learning something”

about how to manipulate this. And Matt was talking about some of these dates and he has in previous episodes but I've kind of started to steal some of his stats here and also generates some of mine.

But four days after that, March 27th, Trump starts to cast out on any kind of ceasefire. Oil rises 5%. April 2nd, Trump promises to intensify tax and threatens to take Iran back to the Stone Age.

Oil rises 11%. Five days later, Trump announces a ceasefire. Oil falls by 16%. April 17th, Trump announces progress with the reopening of the straight.

Oil falls another 11% from there. But then April 20th, the ceasefire falls apart due to mutual strikes. Oil rises 7% three days later. Trump once again threatens Iran.

Oil jumps another 5%. May 6th, oil falls 7% because Trump announces a potential peace agreement. Five days later, on May 11th, the ceasefire Trump says the ceasefire is on life support.

Oil rises 3%. June 4th, there for in a potential hopes for an agreement to push oil down or he's been announces that there is hopes for an agreement and it pushes oil down 5%.

Trump then announces that an agreement has been signed, even though it had not on June 15th. Oil falls to its lowest level dropping some 19% two days later, he says wait and agreement is not final and it has not even been signed and oil rises 7%.

And then the fighting starts back up. After the 4th of July mind, because you don't want oil going up and down during the 4th of July, that caused problems politically. June 7th, it rises in the generator.

Yeah, exactly. And so what happens is, and then six days later, you have the sweeping naval blockade, gets re-imposed oil rises 10%, July 26th

“was just last week, I believe, Trump stops the bombing campaign”

as I said in the last segment largely because of munitions, but oil falls 15%, and then three days later, he's like massive strikes coming, oil jumps 8% then we come to today, Trump cancels the planet attack, oil falls 6% and this light is just one,

is the most egregious, like he just said things that Iran's like, when he said we're gonna make negotiation, we're gonna have these negotiations, Iran was like, there's no one even here to negotiate with, what are you talking about?

- This is completely just a claim. - Yeah, seven times and just to back up what Matt was saying, when the money being made here was unreal,

on March 23rd, more than 500 million

was bet against the oil market, as he said, 10 to 15 minutes before Trump postponed the threat and attacks, then oil fell 15%, those bets, among others investing in the airlines and things like that, the rely on energy,

people who bet against all that made $2.2 billion in the span of a morning. April 7th, roughly.

“Does that one in just that one instance?”

- Just one instance, wow, the overall is much bigger. - So then on April 7th, 950 million was bet on filing oil prices just an hour before Trump announced the ceasefire. Oil dropped 15%, that one trade alone made $2.12 billion.

April 17th, 706. - More than twice Iran's national defense budget. - Exactly, let's point out. - But April 17th, $760 million was bet against oil, roughly 20 minutes before Trump talked about the

straight-of-harmews reopening, then it fell by 11%,

making that one a little under $1.9 billion.

This April 21st, August for all of this is continues to happen. It's like in our face and it's so on our face that they did it with other companies. They're just now recapping it. Like you look at SpaceX, they just had their IPO.

Elon Musk flexed his campaign donations, the hundreds of millions, as you said, in a manner that Trump went to the NASDAQ to change their rules, their listing rules to allow large new public companies to enter the NASDAQ 100.

They weren't supposed to enter the NASDAQ 100, but Trump said, "Let him do it." And so they bent their approach, their own rules. And that means that they were included in every single index fund across the country, because most index funds,

and they made massive amounts of money. And because of that boost, the stock shop to incredible levels way higher than what it was worth, and now it's crashing down, but who cares? They made their money already, problems is the little guys

in their 401(k)s, they're the ones that are losing money on this. And what it just taught me, once again, is that the rules are fucking arbitrary if you have enough money.

And so that's what I mean. Just to piggyback on mats, research on where this oil stuff,

It's happened seven times, and it's not even the only case.

“We see it with Musk's companies, we see it,”

in other munitions and weapons development with the big four, what we call them, like the Lockheed, the Boeing, the big weapons. So this is a, yeah, the investigation if we have a change in administration's going to be real,

interesting TV. Is this unprecedented, I mean, obviously we've had governments of either party or multiple parties give out government contracts to, you know, favorite investors, and this and that,

military contracts are one thing, and trading on oil shorts based on alleged, at maybe imaginary military action or military treaties seems like a level of chronism that is beyond, just dispensing government contracts

to Haliburton to pay for, you know, to build things for a war that you created. Obviously, we've had that kind of thing in the past,

but is this level of market manipulation unprecedented

in the US? Is there a word bigger than unprecedented? Is that the biggest word? I'll work on that for a little while. It is a thousand percent unprecedented,

and it's also whatever the bigger word is, whatever the bigger descriptor is. And I would also like to point out that, in this latest, in this last one where Donald Trump's talking, you know, hey, we're talking to Iran and all that

and the market falls and all the shorts, even Donald Trump's on officials are saying, yeah, we're not talking to Iran. - Yeah, there was no. There was no reporting of any ambassadors talking to anyone.

- Right. - That was just completely made up. - Right. - And Iran has come out and said, yeah, we're talking to Oman. And then they had the ridiculous, the last thing we offered Iran was so ridiculous

it blew my mind, is that we were going to allow them to control all of the inbound traffic, and Oman would control the outbound traffic, and I'm like, well, there's only one in way in and out of the Persian Gulf, and that's, you know,

it's like, so whoever controls the inbound controls the outbound, too, 'cause you can't get out once you get in. So that was a ridiculous thing that Iran turned down, and for them to turn that down, that tells you, their leverage and their strength,

and where they are negotiating from, if they are, in fact, ever negotiating again, an enormous position of strength against the United States, that they would turn that down. - You know, it's interesting sometimes when people ask me,

if I can take a step back, people ask me about this podcast,

“and, you know, O American power, what's that about?”

And obviously, we have the sort of double on top of power in our title, and I say, we know one of our experts is focuses on the military foreign policy, one of them focuses on energy, and to some people, they go, oh, that's a general, you know,

swath of politics I'm interested in, and some people have asked me, what's the connection there? And obviously, our energy markets are very much related to military action and vice versa, but why those two things, why do they comprise American power?

And the answer I usually give people, and this is a layperson's answer is, I just like to say, those are the most expensive things. These are the, these are the, by orders of magnitude, most profitable things in the world,

and especially that our country trades on. So, so much of our structure of power,

and this is what I always say to people,

how we exert power internationally, internally, how we structure our power internally is directly related to those two markets and those two industries and those two cultures. So, I think what we're seeing right now

is perhaps the most perfect example of that, I mean, I say perfect in a, the most negative way that can be, but like the dead center of that then diagram, you know, when we say these are the,

these are the most valuable things, and thus American power is based on them. This is the end result of that, like this is the goal, is this is, this is a perfect example of how the profit motive of both oil and war

has resulted in a fake war to manipulate oil mark. I mean, not fake. It's really happening. There's real atrocities happening. The motivation for it was nonsense, was fictional,

even more so than in previous years. But yeah, what we're seeing is this confluence of those two extremely expensive items, controlling not just, you know, our country's actions, but global politics now.

“And that's, you know, that's what we mean”

when we say American power. - Yeah, and a lot of people don't realize that military power and energy power are like, I don't know, brother and sister. Like it's literally like it's the two things you need

to dominate the world. And you can have all the military power in the world. And if you don't have any energy, you're not gonna dominate the world. And you can have all the energy and no military,

you're not gonna dominate. But if you have both, you are dominating the world. And that's what Donald Trump does all about. And he talks about world domination, energy domination, military domination,

he talks about that all the time. When you have both of those things, you're the alpha, you're the omega,

And that's why those two things go together hand in hand. Like they're very closely related and stitched together.

- Well, like I always say for all of our national security

lovers, let's convert to renewable energy so that we don't have an energy disadvantage on all of our, all of our energies. Yeah, okay, energy gives you power. We have rolling brownouts in most of our cities this week.

Like maybe that's a live issue from the past. But at this point, if you believe that your country needs energy dominance in order to dominate globally, China's building solar, they're also building nuclear, they're building everything.

But we're not building that right. If the military power or global power in general

“and dominance is your goal, you have to look at it from that angle.”

And recognize that we are being defeated on an international level when it comes to energy development and modernization. - Yeah, but conservatives, they say they don't like renewable energy

because they say it doesn't work. The reason they don't like renewable energy is because you can't use it as a weapon and exert power over other countries with it. When you control another country's oil supply,

you control that country. You have leverage over them, you have, and that's why they really don't like renewable energy 'cause nobody's importing solar power, right? - Right. (laughs)

- And the fact that they read it all the countries could have energy independence from us as well. - Well, I'm saying though, the fact that renewable energy

would make us so powerful at home doesn't matter to them.

They want to preserve power and exerted against other countries. And that's why they have the love of fair with oil and gas. - And like I said, four minutes ago,

“that's what we mean when we say American power.”

- Sounds like a future episode. - I think we should definitely talk about how energy is used as a weapon internationally. - I mean, and on a more local stuff, but like how we use that as a weapon and war

and to exert power internationally, I think we should definitely have a longer discussion about that before we move on, does anyone have any closing thoughts about these particular instances of mark and manipulation

that we've gone more into detail than we ever have on this before? I think this has been a really fascinating look. And I don't think I had all those numbers in front of me 'cause there anything else you think our listeners should know as we wrap this discussion up?

- So the market manipulation has been recognized widely and it's driven so many investors out of the market. That is why it is really hard for oil prices to shoot back up to levels people were predicting

because they basically chased all the good money off.

People are scared to death to invest in the oil markets because it's a rug polo week or a rug polo every two weeks. And they're like, you know what, I can take this money and I can go over here and invest it in pharmaceuticals or healthcare,

I can invest it in whatever I'm getting away from the oil market and we've seen the largest drop in money taken out of the oil markets than we've ever seen in history because of the manipulation that's happening. No one wants to play there anymore.

No one wants to invest there anymore. And a lot of this money is like Chad brought up earlier. It's people's retirement plans, their pensions,

“their 401(k)s, that's what people don't understand.”

When you're manipulating the oil market, you're impacting someone's future retirement. You're impacting their 401(k)s, like in their pension. And so a lot of these hedge funds and you know, that invest in this,

they are responsible for these other people's money. They're 401(k)s, their retirements, their pensions. And that's why they're the big institutional investors are getting away from it because they are responsible for other people's future.

And they're not going to bet it with this president manipulating the market. And I'm just my final thought on this. And time kind of to circle back to your question on this being potentially unprecedented.

Now, the manipulations themselves are not unprecedented. I mean, we all remember Enron. During the California Energy Crisis, the Enron was basically creating artificial scarcity to drive up prices.

And they, because of that, Californians were dealing with rolling blackouts and skyrocketing utility bills until federal regulators came in. And we all remember what happened Enron. Enron was that big scandal.

We also know about Haliburton, this in Iraq, Afghanistan, that there's this argument of war profiteering with Dick Cheney because he was the CEO of Haliburton. He had actually, at that time, though, I'm not saying he didn't have ties,

but he at least had-- He had technically divested, right? Yeah, he divested and he'd quit as the CEO. He was no longer involved in what Haliburton was doing. Though what makes this different and so unprecedented

is that we have the president of the United States directly involved now. Whereas back then, you could potentially vilify Dick Cheney for all of his terribleness and his ties to Haliburton at one point.

But there's really no even circumstantial evidence

profiting from these wars.

“In fact, if he died before, one of the wars even ended.”

And I'm not a-- Not any purpose. Whatever. No, no, yeah. I'm not a Dick Cheney fan in the slightest.

I'm just trying to give you kind of-- If we're looking at how-- It's so much more direct than that, it's so much-- How thoughtful it is now. We can look back at Dick Cheney and go,

well, that was a better time and say-- and say, at least, I mean, as the vice president, he wasn't directly profiting. And that's what's exactly happening when you look at the Kushner Brothers.

Woo, we just saw Josh Kushner, who's Jared Kushner's brother, tried to buy off FIFA, and that's a whole different thing. And so are buy off the World Cup. But anyway, so you see his family's mits all over this. And that's the unprecedented part.

That's the part where it's so disgusting that when we saw Enron, it was federal regulators. The US government, who we put out there to be our defender, they did their job and went after Enron. We had when it came to Cheney, he did what you're

“supposed to do, whether there was some shadow money?”

I don't know. But overtly, he was like, I'm not part of this. When it's Donald Trump, he's like, my son's in charge of this. And it's just out and open and no one cares.

When SpaceX is saying, we're going to donate $500 million

to all these campaigns. And then suddenly SpaceX gets listed on the NASDAQ 100. There's just no way around that. And so that's where we're at right now. The unprecedented part is how disgusting the federal government

has become in being complicit in all of this. What I would say is fraudulent behavior. And that's we've had frauds, and we've had people try to take advantage of the American people in the past, but our defenders, the American or the federal government's job,

it's just not there anymore. It's now the Enable. Well, I appreciate that you both have some optimism about this being investigated and prosecuted by a further administration.

I hope that the Obama administration was going to prosecute Cheney and Bush for war crimes. But as you mentioned, this is significantly-- at least in this particular category, above and beyond and more direct, more obvious than anything we've ever seen.

I say that about Trump every four seconds and he gets away with whatever the thing he's doing is-- so I don't have enormous amount of confidence in our political media and government

to la Parades in punishing him as they never have succeeded

doing so in the past. But like you said, it is more blatant than it's ever been in the past. And I can only hope that more of this comes to light and actually affects things at some point.

And let's say anyone has anything else they'd like to add to this.

“I think that's a good place to end our discussion”

and we'll be back on Wednesday with our next regular episode for Chad Scott and Matt Randolph. I'm your host, Nat Towsen. You've been listening to American Power from Find Out Media.

And remember, power corrupts. But American Power corrupts American