Iran war: Oil prices soar

How do you update old systems without slowing your business down?

“It's not about modernization just to modernize.”

Or move AI from pilot to production. It's not the technology that's failing. It's the use case that you pick. Find out how global leaders are turning enterprise change into real competitive advantage.

Do it in a resilient way with speed and effectiveness. Follow resilient edge business vitality podcast paid and presented by Deloitte. Check out our new episodes wherever you get your podcasts. podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte Gallagher and at 1600 hours GMT on Monday, the 9th of March, these are

our main stories.

Oil prices surge as the US is well-war with Iran continues.

President Trump says it's a very small price to pay for what he calls world peace, but how long will this continue? The new Supreme Leader of Iran is the son of the last one, leading some Iranians to despair about the future. This means that nothing is going to change.

It's the same path, perhaps even worse. Anyhow, I don't think the situation can continue. I don't think that he will last. Also in this podcast, what will happen to the Iranian women's football team after they refuse to sing their national anthem?

“They're in Australia now, but will they return home?”

If they did seek asylum and we do not know whether they do want to, what would that mean for their families back home? We start with the economic fallout of the US and Israeli war against Iran. It's impact is spreading across the globe. Oil prices have shot up by 20% today to more than $100 a barrel and stock markets have fallen.

Donald Trump has said it's a very small price to pay for what he calls world peace. G7 Finance Ministers have been discussing the release of emergency oil reserves that say no decision has been taken. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world's oil supply is usually shipped, has all been but closed to traffic for a week now.

The BBC's Anafoster is in Doha. The beautiful, you would be dials all around this jetty here. They normally take people around this harbour on tourist trips.

“But because of the war, that's all being cancelled.”

But then even further out those other ships that are really drawing attention at the moment because they can't get through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just a way to my right where the Gulf really narrows. And when you look, I've been taking a look at one of these apps that shows you what shipping traffic is out there.

And I've been looking at the oil tank as in particular. Is it a click on this one? This is a Panamanian crude oil tank of the Aquar One at Anker. This is the well-sale. You can see there's a real cluster, they're stuck on the inside so they can't get out

and take their cargo around the world. And similarly on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, again, when you look on screen at all these little turquoise and red and green arrows that mark different ships. You can see again a cluster that need to get here to refill and they're stuck on the other side as well.

And that is why when we talk about the global economic impact, you see it right here. You see it on this tiny screen on my phone. Everything has ground to a halt. Some oil depots in Iran have also been destroyed over the weekend. Our international business correspondent Theo Leggett told me more.

Since the conflict in the Middle East began, global oil prices have increased by about $30 a barrel. So there were around $72 a barrel in late February, then now hovering above $100. We did see a spike of $119 all there about so overnight. But things have tiled off a little bit.

Now that's a very significant increase and oil prices are now at the highest level. They've been since immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A lot depends on how long prices stare these levels and how high they ultimately go.

Obviously news of the G7 talks about potentially releasing oil reserves has brought the headline price down a bit for the moment. But those decisions will undoubtedly affect where the price goes in the short term. Now a higher oil price translates into higher costs. For factories that are making things, it's their energy bills, transport costs for goods, fuel costs for ordinary people.

We've also seen a big increase in the price of gas, because about a fifth of the world supplies of liquified natural gas come through the straights of hormones.

That can increase the cost of household heating, it can increase the costs of industrial energy. It also can increase the cost of electricity. For example in the UK, the price of electricity is very closely linked to the price of gas, because gas is used in generation. So all of these costs could go up, which means if you have a sustained high oil price, it will lead to inflation.

The question is how much inflation? You mentioned Russia there, and they are one country that could benefit from this,

“because the US already is some sanctions on Russian oil. Do you think more of that will happen?”

Potentially, because this is an idea about keeping oil in the system.

So what the US has done is withdrawn a threat to take action against India,

if India keeps on buying consignments of Russian oil against the interests of sanctions. Now, Russia has been able to supply oil, despite the war in Ukraine, but those supplies have had their price-capped by action from the US, the European Union and others. What this means is it's easier for Russia to sell that oil, and it may get a higher price for it. The more money Russia gets from oil, the more that feeds into Russia's budget,

it eases the economic problems that have been caused by the squeeze from sanctions. And as you mentioned, the G7 Finance Minister is meeting today. They may release some oil reserves, presumably that's a limited pot. They don't have a huge amount to release today. Yes, it is a limited pot, as I understand it, it's about four days of global output.

That's the equivalent. So releasing some of that, and they certainly wouldn't release all of it, but releasing some of that in the short term, would bring oil prices down.

“But the problem is, when do you release it? Do you release it now in order to ease whatever spike we're going through at the moment?”

Or do you wait until, for example, the northern hemisphere winter when it might be badly needed? How long do you think this crisis is going to go on for? The O-legate. And we have more on the economic impact of the war on our YouTube channel. Search for BBC News on YouTube, and you'll find global news podcasts in the podcast section.

There's a new story available every weekday. Heavy explosions have continued to rock the Iranian capital after the country named its new Supreme Leader, Mr. Moshitabha Hamini. Little is known about the 56-year-old son of the last Supreme Leader who was killed in an earthquake nine days ago. Only a few photos and videos of him have ever been published, but it's expected all rule in the same way as his hard-lined father. Thousands of people have gathered in a central square in Tehran to pledge their allegiance to him.

But there were chance of defiance in Tehran when the news was first announced.

BBC Persian has received some messages from people in Tehran who don't support the Iranian regime with their reaction to the news. We've voiced up their words. Even the slimmest chance for a change no longer exists within the system. The assembly could not have selected anyone closer to the former leader. So everything will remain much the same.

They don't even need to change their chance to support the name.

“Why isn't there much information available about him so we can see how charismatic he actually is?”

They sent out mass texts saying he has become the leader. Now, I'm just waiting for Trump's speech. This means that nothing is going to change. It's the same path, perhaps even worse. Anyhow, I don't think the situation can continue. I don't think that he will last.

For more, I spoke to our chief international correspondent, Leestu Set. He has really been in the shadow of his father. He's been working in his office for decades, a very inclusive figure. And very mysterious, I mean, just imagine that suddenly he is propelled into the top position in the Islamic Republic of Iran. At a time of war, any Iranians don't even know what his voice sounds like last night when there was an ounce of Iranian friends were looking online to see any evidence of public speeches.

They were none, any time many public events, they were hardly any. He's not held any formal government positions. They don't really know that much about him. But what they do know, as you've just been reporting for, those who support the government, it's a continuity of the Hamanai line, a hard line conservative line. For those who had hoped that the start of the war was the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic,

they think that a harsh regime will become a harsh or still. One of the moments that's being mentioned now in articles about him is what happened in 2005 and 2009, where a very conservative cleric, Mohammed Aminina Jad, one disputed presidential elections. And the prominent reformist candidates, those who are seen as being more moderate in Iran's political spectrum,

So if that was the beginning of his work behind the scenes, he now emerges a little bit from that shadow to see a cementing of the power of the hardliners with the reformers, including the president, much respect, it's gone and being pushed ever more into the sidelines.

“Do you think would even see him that much in public, at least for the moment, Lace, considering, I mean, he's such a target for the US and Israel?”

There's been not a sign of most about how many since Saturday morning after those first strikes, which killed not just his father,

I told him how many, but also his mother, his wife, and one of his sons. And that I should mention Charlotte is now another dimension in this war. It's the personal, it's among revenge. He'll want to take revenge and Donald Trump who didn't want him to be in power also sees it as personal revenge, because, as we know, he doesn't like people taking issue with him.

So he hasn't been seen, it was reported that he was injured, and it's not clear that he is.

So he's got this conundrum, he's got to project stability and continuity, but he also has to keep himself alive when he's got a target on his back. That was Lisa Set. Along with the economic cost of this war, there's also, of course, the human cost. The greatest single loss of civilian lives came, as far as we know, right at the start of the war, with an air strike on a school in the southern town of Minab. A video uploaded by Iran's semi-efficient man news agency of the moment a missile appears to hit the school, more than 160 people died, many of them young girls.

I said the video appears to show impact, while the video has now been verified by the BBC's in-house team of specialists, Merlin Thomas, told Tim Franks the latest.

We've been investigating this deadly incident that happened on the first day of the war, and in this war there's been limited amounts of video footage emerging, because of the internet blackout.

But this new video that's emerged, shed new light on exactly what's happened, because yesterday the semi-efficient news agency may have published a video moments before a missile hit. Now, we've slowed the video right down, and we've shown it to multiple weapons experts who've identified the missile as a U.S. Tomahawk missile. That's worth saying that Israel and Iran do not have Tomahawk's. So, to be clear, this new video doesn't show the missile hitting the school building, but you can see smoke rising in the background near the school building.

And because of that, and expert analysis of verified videos and satellite imagery, it suggests that the area came under a wave of U.S. strikes, and you can see that in satellite imagery, which shows a number of buildings that were hit.

“Donald Trump has said in terms, and I think it was just on Saturday that he said, when asked the question, did the U.S. bomb the school? No, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran. It sounds as if this could contradict that.”

Yes, it cast serious doubt on what President Donald Trump has said. He obviously has blamed Iran for the strike on the school, and we've asked the U.S. about this, and we'll continue to investigate that. Experts that we've spoken to, the body of evidence we've looked at, as well as satellite imagery, indicates that the presence of a Tomahawk missile says that this was a U.S. operation. Just briefly, I mean, any reason why the U.S. would not be able to establish whether they had bombed the school by now.

It's not clear, normally in these kinds of operations, they would have intelligence that would indicate where they've struck, so they've not explained and been forthcoming us to why they haven't come forward with an answer. That was Merlin Thomas. Still to come in this podcast. When we actually start looking at objects and can actually see chisel marks or, you know, somebody thumbprint or something like that, you immediately become more connected to the person he made it. A new finding reveals ancient Egyptians would just like us.

We focus on the part of the internet that most people don't know about, that it's got the dark web. Under cover, in the furthest corners of the dark web, U.S. Special agents are on a mission to locate and rescue children from abuse. Move it now. From the BBC World Service, World of Secrets, the darkest web follows their shocking investigations. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get to a BBC podcast.

“How does a global automaker actually make AI work at scale?”

I'm Ashwin Patil, host of resilient edge, a business vitality podcast paid and presented by Deloitte. Discover how Deloitte, AWS and Toyota reduced manual effort and reshaped supply chain operations across the business.

Everything right now is a text story. From the gadgets that we buy, so the way is that we communicate with each other to the ways that we work,

“so the ways that governments around the world are changing, all of it is mediated by technology.”

And on the vergecast, twice a week, we try to make sense of all of it. All of the news, all of the new stuff, all the biggest stories, what it all means and how it makes us feel. On the vergecast, twice a week, wherever you find podcasts. To Turkey now. Large crowds of supporters of Istanbul's jailed man marching ahead of a landmark corruption trial that they call politically motivated.

Ekrem Imemolu was arrested shortly after announcing his intention to run for president.

And is seen as one of the few politicians capable of defeating President Erdogan.

Ekrem Imemolu, Erdogan Imemolu had not announced his presidential candidacy. Today he would still be an office as the Metropolitan Mayor. Today with a political coup with a political trial, he's being held in a trap. The case is political. Our mirrors are imprisoned because it is political. I do not believe there is any corruption nor do I want to believe it.

He faces more than 140 charges, including corruption and running a criminal organization. Emre Tamal from the BBC's Turkish service told me more.

Ekrem Imemolu was jailed on the same day.

He was announced as presidential candidate of the main opposition. Republican people's party, CHP, in March last year. And his arrest triggered Turkey's largest street protests in more than a decade. This is a longer way to trial, which began today. It is expected to last several years. And it is considered as one of the most significant legal proceedings in recent Turkish political history.

We heard the accusations. At the time Istanbul's Chief Public Prosecutor, Arcon Geulich, West Turkey's Justice Minister now, requested prison sentences totaling more than 2,500 years. Mr. Imemolu denies all the charges. His request for the trial to be broadcast live on TV has been rejected by the government.

“Wow. I mean, what's the mood in Turkey around this trial?”

Obviously, we heard from some of his supporters there, but presumably some people have different feelings. Yes, the mood is tense and I'm polarized. I should say, many opposition supporters view the trial as politically motivated as we heard. Aim that weakening a key challenger to Turkey's President-Rijip Taip Adon. And street protests and demonstrations, a reflected anger and frustration among Mr. Imemolu supporters. And today's courtroom rooms, scenes have been kind of chaotic.

It flows for the mayor signalling a strong public opinion. However, on the other hand, pro government supporters, largely accept the judicial processes legitimate. President Adon and his party maintained that Turkey's judiciary is independent. However, overall, I should say this trial has intensified political tension and race public concern about the state of democracy in Turkey.

“And human rights groups external have also raised concerns, haven't I?”

Yes, they have expressed concern over the independence of Turkish courts and trial has drawn widespread criticism outside the country. But human rights watch and M.M.C. international have denounced it as politically motivated. They both argue that the case undermines democratic norms and judicial-interdependence, independent, sorry. And M.M.C. specifically highlighted concerns over secret witnesses, testimony and fair trial violations. Overall, international reaction reflects significant unease about democracy and human rights in Turkey.

M.M.Temble. To South Sudan, where the world's youngest nation is grappling with instability and fears of a return to civil war. Thousands of people have fled the rebel stronghold of a co-bow in John Glyce State after the army issued an evacuation order as it prepares a new military offensive. Government forces are trying to retake territory from those loyal to first vice-president Riott Marke, who is in detention in Juba on charges of murder, treason and crimes against humanity, which he denies. Calcadan Yibatel is at an eight-center.

This is a humanitarian hub in war, which is the capital of John Glyce State. It's South Sudan's largest state and recently it's most restrictive. Since the beginning of the year, there have been intense clashes in various areas within the state, between government forces and rebels that are aligned with imprisoned opposition leader Riott Marke.

It's said that it's about to launch a new military offensive and it told humanitarian agencies, members of the UN mission to close their offices and evacuates.

It also told civilian try to seek shelter in government-controlled areas. Now, this Aquaba area is a stronghold for the rebel forces. I've been speaking to some of the aid organizations here and they're telling me that thousands of people are already fleeing from that county. Because that county is close to the Ethiopian border and others are running away in different directions. Any organizations have left the area as well in UN-truttered planes on Sunday, which means some of the towns in those areas are currently deserted.

Civilians have often been caught in the crossfire and a known number of people have been killed and close to 300,000 people are displaced. The most recent evacuation order is feared to exacerbate these situations and even more people are feared to flee their homes.

“That's going to worsen the humanitarian situation, which is already dire as it is. Added to that this ongoing insecurity, it's going to be very difficult for many desperate people to receive very essential supplies that they require.”

Kalkidan, Yippetal. The Ukrainian President of the Lodomir Zelensky has said he's sending drone experts to the Middle East this week to help Gulf States under attack from Iran. Just before we recorded this podcast, Mr Zelensky said that 11 countries had asked for Ukraine's help after it spent four years inventing cheap and effective ways of defending the skies from similar Russian attacks.

Our diplomatic correspondent James Landell is in Ukraine and has been to see the latest anti-drone technology the country has to offer.

We're standing in a field in the middle of the Ukrainian countryside and it's a place where people come to test drones. We've come to look at a drone called a bullet. They're putting it together in front of us and it looks like a very strange weapon, a hybrid weapon, half quadcopter, drone, half plastic shell and it's the latest technology, the latest design that the Ukrainians have come up with to destroy lethal Russian shahed drones that attack Ukraine almost nightly. The bullet's just taken off rising on its four propellers and then suddenly which way it goes, it tips on its side, rockets away and it now is just a small speck on the horizon.

Top speed is well over 300 kilometers an hour.

This is one of Ukraine's newest and fastest interceptors and the idea behind it is very simple. The pilots launch the bullet and use a first-person camera simply to crash it into an incoming drone.

They're deadly and the pilots know they could be just as effective against similar Iranian shahed drones causing havoc across the Middle East. This drone pilot, cool-signed Draka, thinks Ukraine has much to offer.

“Honestly, we have enough work here, but we understand that this war is spreading across the world and that Iran is an ally of Russia. So I think we could find the resources to send our instructors to train people who are fighting the same enemy.”

We've come now to the factory where the drones are made, there are rows and rows of men and women soldering, assembling, fixing, sorting and there are piles and piles of these drones. You really get a sense of just how relatively simple it is to make these drones and why they're so cheap. Stanislav Gruschen is co-founder of the General Cherry Dron Company. Are you surprised that it has taken this amount of time for the rest of the world to wake up to the importance of this?

“Honestly, I'm really surprised. It seems that every country is preparing to their boss wars but not their ongoing ones.”

Have any countries come to you? Have you had extra demand requests in the last week? Yes, a lot of state agents from different countries from all over the world, not for them, just Arabic ones who are already facing the threat from Iran. They understand now how it may be. The request is pretty high and very urgent.

The war in the Middle East poses risks for Kiev, rising oil prices, fueling rushes, war machine, distracted allies turning their attention elsewhere. But Ukraine's hard-won expertise in intercepted drones gives President Zelensky an opportunity,

“not just to win new friends and funds in the Gulf, but also to keep his war from being forgotten.”

This concern about the safety of the Iranian women's football team after they refused to sing their national anthem at the first game at the Asia Cup in Australia.

The squad did sing the anthem at the next two games, but they've been called wartime traitors by conservative commentator in Iran, who's calling for them to be punished. The now out of the tournament and due to return home, but many in the Australian Iranian community are encouraging the women to apply for asylum. Donald Trump too has said that forcing the team back to Iran would be a terrible humanitarian mistake. I've been talking to our Australia correspondent Katy Watson. I've been at the hotel all day and I've seen some of the players and they're being watched closely. There's been very little contact, certainly I was speaking to some Iranian Australians here, many have tried to reach out to the team and not succeeded.

“There is certainly concern about what the fact that they didn't sing the national anthem and then did what it means if they do go back to Iran.”

But of course they're now out of the tournament, so the expectation is that they would then return to Iran. Obviously there is a war going on, so logistically it might be quite hard to go back, but also there is a lot of pressure and they've been put in a very difficult situation because if they did seek asylum and we do not know whether they do want to, or whether all of them want to, you know, that's something that's very individual. Well if they did then what would that mean for their families back home? So I think there is, there is that concern. I was speaking to Amnesty International earlier who was saying that one of the other issues is communication, do they know that they are able to seek asylum and that's also need to be communicated to them.

So there is concern about what it means for the players if they did decide to return and if they decided not to return also for their families. The match on Sunday there were people chanting kind of saying that they will support the women here, if they wanted to stay, so there's certainly you know support there. But yeah it's a incredibly difficult situation certainly seeing some of the players today. I mean they do have people with them all the time and there isn't, you know, there hasn't been much communication with the team and it was interesting because at the match last night there was very little interaction between the team and the fans.

Like the Philippine side who did line up and thank their supporters, the Iranian side went straight off the pitch at the end of the match. And there was only one player who was seeking medical assistance on the sidelines at some point during the match turned and blew a kiss to the crowd and there were huge cheers. So there was slightly a bit of a statement really, but that was the only thing that we really saw and so it's very hard to get any kind of real understanding.

“Understanding of what the team is wanting to do and also you know when they're going.”

That was Katie Watson in Australia. Now to a bit of ancient history for our younger listeners. Before the deliki there was something called correction fluid.

So gloopy liquid usually white because most paper is white and applied to your mistakes on the page with a little brush attached to the top of a small bottle. So why am I telling this? Because it now appears it's really ancient history. Staff at the Fitzwilliam Museum in England have they say discovered that ancient Egyptians had their own version to take care of spreading mistakes or way would brush strokes 3,000 years ago. Hadn't Stradwick is the senior creator for the ancient narvali at the museum. She told Tim Franks where she spotted this fluid. Well, we're seeing it on a papyrus that contained a text that we refer to as the book of the dead, which is a few new papyrus.

And that is illustrated with small vignettes that accompany various spells that are written inside there.

And on one of those we see a very large black jackal and either side of the body of the jackal is a very noticeable when you spot it white stripe. That looks very much like the old style of tepex that I used to use when I was using a typewriter to correct it and it looks as if it's been used to change the shape of the body of the animal. You can see it really clearly when you sort of stop and look at it in any detail.

And why do you think that this was a sort of correction fluid as opposed to an addition that they decided that they wanted the black torso of this jackal to sort of multicolored?

“Well, looking at the rest of the papyrus, the artist or artists is extremely skilled and doesn't use painting a wasteful way at all. So where there are layers of paint, they are used very carefully.”

We use infrared imagery on it and that allows us to see through the layers of paint, particularly see the black layers of paint that might be underneath things. And you know, right is rain, we could see that the body originally was much much faster and that there's these white stripes which overlap a significant part of the black, though it's it's quite clearly it's been done to thin it down.

“And then also have been looking at additions of other books of the dead and low and behold, yes, I can see it on other papyrus.”

To me, it's been a delight to actually have time to draw people's attention to these amazing people who made these things.

To kind of really humanize the Egyptians perhaps a bit more because for a lot of people, the first focus of their attention has always been on the Kings of Egypt or the maybe esoteric religious thinking that the Egyptians had. But when we actually start looking at objects and can actually see chisel marks or, you know, somebody thumbprint or something like that, you immediately become more connected to the person he made it.

That was Helen Strudwick at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge.

“And that's all from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at global podcast at BBC.co.uk.”

You can also find us on X at BBC World Service, use the hashtag global news pod and don't forget our sister podcast, the global story. This addition of the global news podcast was mixed by Kai Perry and the producer was Charles Sanctuary. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Charlotte Gallagher, until next time. Goodbye. [Music] We focus on the part of the internet that most people don't know about, it's called the Dark Web. It's undercover in the furthest corners of the Dark Web. US Special agents are on a mission to locate and rescue children from abuse.

[Music] From the BBC World Service, World of Secrets, the darkest web follows their shocking investigations. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get to a BBC podcast.